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XSO and Interest cutsIt's easy to get caught up in all the hype around interest rate cuts and thinking of all the money that will start flowing back into smaller caps and risk assets in general. Taking a look back at the 3 previous periods of easing rates, we can see that this isn't necessarily the case. This graph is overlaying US cash rates as I believe it's a bit of an early indicator, AUS cash rates will typically follow suit but potentially after markets have peaked. Whilst I do believe that low interest rates are good for small caps, it can clearly be a painful decline before the next leg up. These dips in the market do appear to be bottoming out quicker and quicker but this is mainly due to cash stimulation by the government, ultimately leading back to more inflation. I don't rule out that this time could play out slightly differently, however it's also never bad to mitigate risk and have appropriate risk measures in place.
ASX:XSO
by oliver1fraser
Interest Rate Strategies: Trade Smarter with Fed Rate DecisionsInterest Rate Strategies: Trade Smarter with Fed Rate Decisions Trading interest rates may seem straightforward at first: buy when cuts end and sell when they fall. However, this approach often defies expectations, as determining when rate cuts truly end isn't as simple as pointing to a rate pause following a cut. While today’s Federal Reserve rate decisions are made during scheduled (and unscheduled emergency) Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, this wasn’t always the case. Before the 1990s, the Fed often made changes outside of meetings. The shift to exclusively deciding rates during FOMC meetings was implemented to provide greater transparency and predictability for markets. Topics Covered: How Are Interest Rates Traded? Three Interest Rate Trading Strategies. Key Insights from Backtesting Interest Rate Trading Strategies. Interest Rate Trading Indicator (Backtest For Yourself). █ How Are Interest Rates Traded? This strategy focuses on trading around Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, including hikes (increases), cuts (decreases), and pauses. These decisions are believed by many to have both short- and long-term effects on the market. Key Strategy Concepts Backtested: Buy on Rate Pauses or Increases: Go long (buy) when the Fed pauses or raises interest rates, typically signaling market stability or optimism. Sell on Rate Decreases: Go short (sell) or close longs when the Fed cuts rates, often indicating economic concerns or slowing growth. Buy on Specific Rate Decreases: Enter trades when the Fed implements specific rate cuts, such as 50 basis points (bps) which represents 0.5%, and analyze market reactions over different time horizons. █ Strategy: Long during Pauses and Increases, Short during Decreases This section examines the effectiveness of going long on rate pauses or increases and shorting during decreases. This strategy performed well between 2001 and 2009, but underperformed after 2009 and before 2001 compared to holding positions. The main challenge is the unpredictability of future rate changes. If you could foresee rate trends over two years, decision-making would be easier, but that’s rarely the case, making this strategy less reliable in certain periods. 2001-2009 Trade Result: 67.02% Holding Result: -31.19% 2019-2021 Trade Result: 19.28% Holding Result: 25.22% 1971-Present Trade Result: 444.13% Holding Result: 5694.12% █ Strategy: Long 50bps Rate Cuts This section evaluates trading around 50 basis point (bps) rate cuts, which is a 0.5% decrease. Large cuts usually respond to economic stress, and market reactions can vary. While these cuts signal aggressive economic stimulation by the Fed, short-term responses are often unpredictable. The strategy tends to perform better over longer timeframes, as markets absorb the effects. 1971-Present Trade Duration: 10 trading days — Average Return: -0.19% Trade Duration: 50 trading days — Average Return: 2.41% Trade Duration: 100 trading days — Average Return: 2.46% Trade Duration: 250 trading days — Average Return: 11.4% 2001-Present Trade Duration: 10 trading days — Average Return: -2.12% Trade Duration: 50 trading days — Average Return: -1.84% Trade Duration: 100 trading days — Average Return: -3.72% Trade Duration: 250 trading days — Average Return: 1.72% 2009-Present Trade Duration: 10 trading days — Average Return: -15.79% Trade Duration: 50 trading days — Average Return: -6.11% Trade Duration: 100 trading days — Average Return: 7.07% Trade Duration: 250 trading days — Average Return: 29.92% █ Strategy: Long Any Rate Cuts This section reviews the performance of buying after any rate cut, not just large ones. Rate cuts usually signal economic easing and often improve market conditions in the long run. However, the size of the cut and its context greatly influence how the market reacts over different timeframes. 1971-Present Trade Duration: 10 trading days — Average Return: 0.33% Trade Duration: 50 trading days — Average Return: 2.65% Trade Duration: 100 trading days — Average Return: 4.38% Trade Duration: 250 trading days — Average Return: 8.4% 2001-Present Trade Duration: 10 trading days — Average Return: -1.12% Trade Duration: 50 trading days — Average Return: -0.69% Trade Duration: 100 trading days — Average Return: -1.59% Trade Duration: 250 trading days — Average Return: 0.22% 2009-Present Trade Duration: 10 trading days — Average Return: -3.38% Trade Duration: 50 trading days — Average Return: 3.26% Trade Duration: 100 trading days — Average Return: 12.55% Trade Duration: 250 trading days — Average Return: 12.54% █ Key Insights from Backtesting Interest Rate Trading Strategies The first assumption I wanted to test was whether you should sell when rate cuts begin and buy when they end. The results were inconclusive, mainly due to the difficulty of predicting when rate cuts will stop. A rate pause might suggest cuts are over, but that’s often not the case, as shown below. One key finding is that the best time to be fully invested is when rates fall below 1.25% or 1.00%, as this has historically led to stronger market performance. But this can be subject to change. █ Interest Rate Trading Indicator (Backtest For Yourself) Indicator Used For Backtesting (select chart below to open): The 'Interest Rate Trading (Manually Added Rate Decisions) ' indicator analyzes U.S. interest rate decisions to determine trade entries and exits based on user-defined criteria, such as rate increases, decreases, pauses, aggressive changes, and more. It visually marks key decision dates, including both rate changes and pauses, offering valuable insights for trading based on interest rate trends. Historical time periods are highlighted for additional context. The indicator also allows users to compare the performance of an interest rate trading strategy versus a holding strategy.
SP:SPXEducation
by TanHef
Federal Reserve Cuts Interest Rates by 50 BPS, Crypto RalliesMarket Update - September 20th, 2024 Takeaways The Federal Reserve cuts rates:  The Federal Reserve announced Wednesday it will cut the federal benchmark interest rate by a half-percentage point (50 basis points), lowering the range to between 4.75% and 5%. Crypto markets responded well to the move, with the price of bitcoin pushing past $63,000. US crypto legislation still possible this year:  US senator Cynthia Lummis (R-WY) said in an interview Tuesday she thinks crypto legislation could be passed during the lame-duck session of Congress. US spot bitcoin ETFs pull in $187 million in inflows:  US spot bitcoin ETFs drew $187 million in inflows Tuesday, marking the fourth consecutive day of inflows after a significant drawdown. Republicans ask for clarity on crypto airdrops:  US representative Patrick McHenry (R-NC) and other top Republican lawmakers sent a letter to SEC chair Gary Gensler asking for clarity on crypto airdrops. Federal Reserve Cuts Interest Rates by 50 BPS, Crypto Rallies The Federal Reserve announced Wednesday it is lowering the benchmark federal funds rate by a half-percentage point (50 basis points) to between 4.75% and 5%. It marked the first interest rate cut in more than four years and signaled the Federal Reserve is ready to ease up on its fight against inflation. The move marked the first time since 2008 the Federal Reserve had cut interest rates by 50 basis points at one meeting. Many analysts had expected a quarter-point percentage cut, but cooling inflation and a soft labor market allowed Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell to be more aggressive. In August, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), a key inflation metric, dropped to 2.5% year-over-year, roughly hitting Powell’s 2% inflation target. The long-anticipated move sparked the broader markets. And crypto prices also rallied, with bitcoin pushing to roughly $63,500 and ether increasing to roughly $2,350 respectively. A low interest-rate environment is widely viewed as a greenshoot for risk assets including crypto, but it remains to be seen if a rate-cutting campaign will ultimately shoot bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to all-time highs. 🌐 Topic of the week: Global Stablecoin Ecosystem 🫱 Read more here
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by Gemini
Fed's Bold Rate Cut Raises Stakes for BoE and BoJ Both the Bank of England (BoE) and Bank of Japan (BoJ) are not expected to cut interest rates at their respective meetings today and tomorrow. The US Federal Reserve just chose to cut its own rate by 50 basis points. So, how might the BoE and BoJ decisions be affected? Bank of America projects the BoE will leave its Bank Rate at 5.0%, with the pound potentially gaining. However, gains could be capped if policymakers lean dovish. Additionally, a currency strategy note from HSBC says that the sharp appreciation of the British pound against the U.S. dollar may be nearing its limits. Masamichi Adachi, chief Japan economist at UBS Securities, cautioned that if the BoJ raises rates Friday, just days after the Fed's rate cut, “markets would likely face increased turbulence.”
by BlackBull_Markets
Rate Cut Incoming. Buckle Up"What the Yield Curve and Fed Moves Mean for Your Next Trade." Historically, when the Federal Reserve lowers the federal funds rate while the yield spread is negative (also known as an inverted yield curve), it has often been an indicator of an impending market correction or recession. Let’s break this down: Historically, the bond market is a key indicator. Typically, long-term bonds offer higher yields than short-term bonds; This a healthy sign. When that flips and short-term yields surpass long-term ones, we get what’s called an inverted yield curve. This inversion signals that investors are getting nervous about the near-term economy. When the Fed then steps in to lower rates, they’re trying to stimulate growth, but it often comes too late. Looking back at past events: The dot-com crash of 2000: The yield curve inverted, the Fed cut rates, and a 35% market correction followed. The 2008 financial crisis: Again, the yield curve inverted, rates were cut, and the market saw a major downturn exceeding 50%. Going back even further, the same pattern held in the 1970s and 1980s. The big questions are: Why does this combination signal trouble? Will this pattern repeat itself again? While history tends to repeat itself, the data shows that when the Fed cuts rates with a negative yield spread, market corrections often follow. The inverted curve suggests tighter credit conditions, reduced lending, and lack of confidence, all piling on top of one another creating a recipe for disaster. Stepping back even further, we see that investor sentiment and the bond market tend to lead the way. Credit tightens, and companies cut back on spending. Another a perfect recipe for an economic slowdown and market drop. It's a familiar cycle. So lets buckle up.
TVC:DJIShort
by oh92
1
SPX direction after first and last FED rate cutsThis chart compares FED rate cuts to SPX chart. The last 3 times after the first rate cuts there was a slight upward rally of the SP500 of about 5-10%, before going on a bearish retrace of about -40%, -50% & -20%, and then bottoming out only AFTER the final rate cut. Based on this, if history repeats, there might be a year end upward movement in the stock market, perhaps followed by a retrace through 2025 until the final rate cut. And then massively up from there again. The last 3 times rate cuts did not mean sp500 starts going up immediately. There was a retrace instead. SP500 went up only AFTER the final rate cut.
FRED:FEDFUNDSShort
by strip
Lower rates means Silver to 40?The US dollar is trending lower. Rates are expected to be lowered. Unemployment number rising. Presidential election has candidates talking about give aways. War is still happening. China is in deflation. Banks are seeing credit card delinquency's rise. There are 2 "technical" patterns implying a 40 ish silver price if we continue to break out. And remember all times highs are at 50 ish. The recent weeks price action is encouraging and is implying breakout higher. twitter/x is full of "silver squeeze" chatter again. good to see the buzz start up again. Be safe.
TVC:SILVERLong
by ValuePig
Bitcoin's Eternal Wait for Rate Cuts ContinuesThe current market setup can be described as 'Waiting for Godot'. But in contrast to the Samuel Beckett play, markets are awaiting the Federal Reserve to finally start cutting interest rates. And hopefully, also unlike in the actual play, the wait will not be eternal. Over the past week, market sentiment dropped even further. Jitters about the slowing US economy and rumours, later denied by the company, of a subpoena by the Department of Justice issued to AI stock darling Nvidia over antitrust matter led traditional markets downwards. Crypto markets quickly followed suit. Bitcoin has foreshadowed the slow slide downwards of the wider crypto market. Ever since Bitcoin lost its parabolic momentum earlier in the year, it has trended down, first towards the $60k support. Once Bitcoin breached through the $60k level, and in the absence of any new positive momentum, we are now looking at the $50k price mark. Optimism right now is hard to come by for most traders. The upcoming US jobs report for August has created further expectations of possible doom and gloom. Economists expect that the August jobs report will show that the labor market is cooling, but not dramatically. Consensus estimates are for a net gain of 160,000 jobs, which would be an increase over July’s estimated 114,000 gain according to FactSet estimates. The outcome of the August jobs report will be an important driver for the extent to which the Federal Reserve will cut rates. The decision is both critical and difficult. Cut rates too much and markets could start raising inflation expectations. Do not cut them enough and the economy could weaken further as businesses reel from high rates on their debt. Whatever they do, the impact of lower rates will take time to show effects. In the meantime, markets can continue to struggle. A final unknown variable in this setup are the upcoming US elections. It is likely that weaker economic performance will hurt the chances of the incumbent administration. Crypto markets clearly favour a Trump presidency due to his recently discovered pro-crypto stance. Not even the best analysts can predict the full extent of the the 2nd and 3rd order impacts of a weakening economy, possible rate cuts and a US election that is on knife's edge. Markets hate uncertainty. Unfortunately there seems to be plenty more of it to come before traders can finally start to look upwards once more.
Short
by Coinrule
EUR/USD: Will ECB Resume Rate Cuts Next Week? Futures markets are pricing in a US rate cut for September, with a 62% chance of a 25-basis point cut and a 38% chance of 50-basis points. The Fed’s dovish shift has helped the euro surge to its highest level in more than a year. Attention now shifts to the ECB’s 12 September rate decision. After cutting rates in June and pausing in July, analysts expect the ECB to resume easing amid slowing growth. However, ECB board member Isabel Schnabel, a key hawk, maintains that inflation concerns should take priority over growth concerns. For EUR/USD, bulls may target the December high of 1.1134 and July high of 1.1275, with support possibly near 1.1000.
by BlackBull_Markets
Title: Ringgit Rally Fuels Foreign Bond Inflows: A Deep DiveThe Malaysian ringgit has experienced a substantial appreciation, driven by robust foreign investment in the domestic bond market. A surge in capital inflows, totaling RM5.5 billion in July alone, has propelled the ringgit's performance. This analysis delves into the underlying economic factors driving this trend, examining key indicators and assessing the outlook for sustained growth. While the current trajectory is promising, investors must remain cognizant of potential global economic headwinds. Key Points: Strong foreign inflows into Malaysian bonds Ringgit's appreciation driven by multiple factors Deep dive into economic indicators shaping USD/MYR Assessment of Malaysia's economic fundamentals Cautious outlook amid potential global challenges Key Drivers of the Ringgit Rally: Currency Appreciation: Investors are buying bonds unhedged, betting on further ringgit gains. Strong Domestic Economy: Malaysia's economic robustness and expected interest rate stability bolster investor confidence. Global Factors: Anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts weakening the USD benefit the ringgit. Economic Indicators Influencing USD/MYR: Interest Rate Differentials: Higher local rates attract foreign capital, strengthening the ringgit. Inflation Rates: Low inflation supports currency value. T rade Balance: Surpluses strengthen the ringgit, reflecting Malaysia's export strength. Economic Growth: Domestic consumption and government spending drive economic growth, enhancing the ringgit's appeal. Political Stability: A stable political climate attracts investment, supporting the currency. Global Economic Conditions: Global trends and geopolitical events affect investor risk appetite and currency flows. Outlook: Malaysia's diversified economy, fiscal prudence, and growing middle class underpin the ringgit's strength. Efforts to boost foreign direct investment and exports further support currency appreciation. However, global uncertainties, US monetary policy shifts, and geopolitical tensions could introduce volatility.
Long
by signalmastermind
Fed Signals Possible Rate Cuts, but Crypto Markets Rattled Federal Reserve officials signaled the possibility of a September rate cut during their July meeting: But crypto prices pulled back after Iran pledged it would retaliate against Israel for assassinating Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on Iranian soil. Donald Trump expressed strong support for cryptocurrency at the Bitcoin Conference in Nashville: Trump pledged to set up a strategic bitcoin reserve, stop the US from selling its bitcoin, and fire SEC chair Gary Gensler if he gets re-elected. Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnick announced the firm's plan to establish a Bitcoin financing business with an initial $2 billion investment: The initiative aims to provide leverage to bitcoin investors and strengthen the cryptocurrency ecosystem. The nine US spot Ethereum ETFs saw $98.29 million in outflows on Monday, extending their negative flow streak: BlackRock’s ETHA and Fidelity FETH led the inflows, while Grayscale Ethereum Trust faced significant outflows. The SEC is looking to amend its complaint against Binance, which could delay a court ruling on the security status of specific tokens: This move involves third-party crypto asset securities and adheres to a court directive for further proceedings. Fed Signals Possible Rate Cuts, but Middle East Tensions Rattle Crypto Markets Federal Reserve officials at their July meeting on Wednesday opted to keep interest rates unchanged at 5.25%-5%, after the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, a key inflation measure, increased by only 0.1% in June. This brought the year-over-year rise to 2.5%, down from 2.6% in May, moving closer to the Fed’s 2% inflation target. Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell for the first time hinted at the possibility of cutting rates in September, saying the move is “on the table” if the US continues to make progress on inflation. That would mark the first time the Fed has cut rates in four years. The announcement did not appear to have much impact on cryptocurrency prices. On Wednesday, hitcoin dropped about 2%, below $65,000, while ether dropped more than 1%, hovering above $3,200. The negative price action came after a New York Times report indicated that Iran will take retaliatory action against Israel after Israel assassinated Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. 🪙 Topic of the Week: What Are Stablecoins? ➡️ Read more here
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by Gemini
Pre-FOMC Rates Decision Analysis31st July (FOMC Decision Pending) DXY: Ranging between 104.20 and 104.55. If Fed makes no comment on rate cut, DXY could push up to 105.20. If Fed makes comment on rate cuts in Sept, DXY could push down to 103.65. NZDUSD: Buy 0.5930 SL 20 TP 50 (DXY weakness) AUDUSD: Sell 0.6450 SL 25 TP 90 (DXY strength) USDJPY: Sell 151.50 SL 70 TP 245 (DXY weakness) GBPUSD: Sell 1.28 SL 20 TP 65 (DXY strength & BoE decision tomorrow) EURUSD: Sell 1.08 SL 20 TP 55 (DXY strength) USDCHF: Sell 0.8820 SL 20 TP 70 (DXY weakness) USDCAD: Buy 1.3850 SL 20 TP 45 Gold: Needs to break 2425 to trade up to 2450 (DXY weakness)
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
2
BOJ Decision Countdown: Potential 15-Basis Point Rate Hike LeakBOJ Decision Countdown: Potential 15-Basis Point Rate Hike Leaked The Bank of Japan is reportedly considering a 15-basis point interest rate hike, surpassing market expectations of a 10-basis point increase or no change at all, according to NHK. This comes as the U.S. Federal Reserve contemplates a rate cut, potentially as soon as September. This could be why we are seeing what we are seeing on the USDJPY chart, with the yen rebounding from 38-year lows. The yen has jumped from around 162 per dollar in mid-July to approximately 153 per dollar, marking its most significant two-week gain of the year. Despite this, over three-quarters of economists surveyed by Reuters two weeks ago expect the BOJ to maintain rates at today's meeting. Some experts, including former BOJ board member Takahide Kiuchi, attribute this interest rate inertia to the weak underlying factors driving price movements.
by BlackBull_Markets
Pressure Builds Ahead of Major Central Bank Marathon It's a huge week for central banks with the Bank of Japan (BOJ), Federal Reserve (Fed), and Bank of England (BOE) set to deliver their decisions within a 32-hour window. Market activity remains largely subdued in anticipation. The BOJ’s decision is the most unpredictable. Current market sentiment suggests a ~60% likelihood of a 10-basis point hike and a ~40% chance of no change. A lack of action could undermine the yen's recent gains with a potential resistance at 155.30 (100 MA). The Fed's announcement is scheduled for Wednesday. Market expectations for a rate cut are just 5%. Investors are keenly awaiting any signals regarding a potential move in September. Finally, the Bank of England has the market guessing with an almost 50 –50 chance for a cut. GBP traders are also digesting a key speech from the new finance minister Rachel Reeves in which she unveiled plans for some spending cuts/ or tax increases to fill a £22bn spending shortfall that was 'covered up' by the Conservative government. Traders now also have 30th October to look forward to as the date of the autumn budget.
by BlackBull_Markets
$QQQ Nasdaq with Rate Hiking Cycle DatesGoing along with my usual 'Key Hidden Levels' in the markets perspective that NEWS is an important price level to mark on charts so it is visible to everyone, I have created the update to the "Rate Hiking Cycle" chart. The purple triangles and lines are the range of the day of the announcement and the mid-point of the day plotted horizontally forward. With this data you can see how past levels where the Fed Rate Decision occurred has provided either support or resistance to the movement of the market. Typically it hasn't been as obvious the the observer of a chart all by itself without these markings. At some point these important news levels will be visible for all of us investors so we can see and understand more quickly how the market is absorbing or dealing with the news. I hope you enjoy this chart an continue to update it for yourself. I will work to get these dates into the system so you can all see them on every chart. Wishing you all the best in your investing and trading. Tim 1:48PM, Thursday May 23, 2024
NASDAQ:QQQ
by timwest
3