Rates
AUDUSD buy trade succesful, next: rate decisionHi guy's, in this week's video I mentioned the continuation higher in AUDUSD to fulfill at least the minimum requirements. This has been done and our original buy's have been succesful. Next the rate decision is on the agenda.
In my video I also explained the difference between a continuation and an extension. The daily time frame does not show one unique wave to be over. This means; 'IF price moves lower as a result of the rate decision it is an extension lower on daily time frame and not a continuation'.
Safe trades!
30 Year, 2 Year Spread Making New LowsThe spread between the 30 year US treasury bond and the 2 year bill has made new lows as the yield curve in the US continues to flatten. Anticipate a pullback at some point, but the curve will likely continue to flatten as investors price in a rate hike despite dovish comments from Bullard at the Fed.
This pullback will be confirmed by a green triangle on the Kovach Reversal Indicator. If you're interested in using this indicator, check out quantguy.net.
USD EOY Rate Rumours - "Buy the Rumour"We expect USD to strengthen till end of this year. Instructions on map. This bull will not last for too long, catch it while you can! Our limited target on chart. Once our target hit we are looking for shorting it (Q1 '18).
Stay safe.
Ps: Will add to #Gold longs soon ;)
NZDUSD Ready to RunThe NZDUSD has held the previous structure area of 0.72-0.722. Also, the retest of a broken down trendline from 9/2016. A bullish engulfing candlestick was formed on 8/16/17 confirming bullish momentum, then with a broken counter trendline, 8/21 ema crossover and then recently a 4 hour bullish engulfing pattern. Price is likely to break out from here reaching the previous highs of 0.756 and then eventually 0.77. I am long at 0.73250 with a stop at 0.72980. If we reach our first target we will be getting roughly 9 to 1 risk/reward.
CZK is closed to price area where CNB started intervation 2013This is interesting how CNB by intervention did job. The price is back but rates was rised today by CNB after long time.
It means CNB gave curency back to market. Is the question if they will keep price 26 or not.
Is this it I am waiting for long time? I think YESSo big focus on this market right now. There are some reasons why Euro goes higher actually, but this is not forever. I see this like strong political thing. The fact is ECB will end QE by the time and rising rates may earlier. Meanwhile Trump will fight for his reforms. I am really curious what will hapend. Does Mario Draghi know more?
SELL EURAUD into NZD Rate DecisionOverall, I think we're seeing a strong move in metals, but waiting for NZD/AUD to follow. Also, the USDOLLAR is selling off strongly confirming this. From a technical standpoint we're at a major trendline, a major resistance area of 1.42 and also we have a few small harmonic patterns that have completed or are completing pointing to down movement. Finally, the retail crowd is heavy long the AUD. I am short at 1.407 stop loss at 1.41250. Targets 1.388 then down to the 1.37 area and possibly further. At least offers a 3.5 to 1 RR.
SELL USDCHFUSDCHF broke the major area of 0.995 as well as the 200 ema. Also, seeing many break outs across the board of USD selling. The next area of support will be the fib areas of 0.964-0.967. Then onto around 0.95. Selling at 0.993 and a stop loss above 1.002. This trade offers at east 3.5 to 1.
INTERMARKET | US05Y vs GC1!As real rates rise, the probability of gold having topped increases significantly
Reversals are always stronger than continuations 5 week uptrend broken when RBNZ announced they would keep interest rate the same.
This was followed by bad news and the RBNZ officials saying they want a weaker kiwi.
Could drop more so keep eyes open !
- Happy Trading !
EURUSD: 1.0666 should be resistanceWe can aim to rejoin the long term decline in the Euro here, and for the next 5 days, shorting gradually each day until we have a full position. Risk a rally to 1.0979 and aim for targets below $1. The 'Time at mode' signal in the 2-month timeframe points to a massive decline, so, be patient.
Risk 1-3% between all positions, if the stop is hit at 1.0979.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Economic cycle, market cycle, interest rates, trend lines & SPXThis chart provides probable market behavior given current market behavior, interest rates, and other factors such as presidential elections.
www.tradingview.com
I am expecting a down turn during the next week which would last until late February and another leg up in SPX until the final move down in August 2017.
Trend line colors mark the same conditions on both cycles.
EURGBN @ 0,00 % lowest performer (4th Quarter) of 1842 !Take care
& analyzed it again
- it`s always your decision ...
(for a bigger picture zoom the chart)
This is only a trading capability - no recommendation !!!
Next week i`ll confirm or change my opinion about this SetUp :)
Buying/Selling or even only watching is always your own responsibility ...
1482 Cross-Rates (4th Quarter Statistics) @ drive.google.com
39 Currencies (4th Quarter Statistics) @ drive.google.com
Best regards
Aaron
Is it Pullback or Reversal? The Week Will TellTwo big things going on... the BULL run has been glorious with no stops and the US didn't raise interest rates this December.
In addition to that I have been waiting on a 200-300 pip pullback as shown in my LONG for LIFE idea. I though it was going to happen on the 21st of November, but it seemed it was a little too soon on some of the Daily indicators I have. This timing looks to be more in line with some noticeable correction.
I still think UJ has plenty of LONG potential for 2017, but this is a good SHORT opportunity for more than 100 pips so... Let's watch it go!
Intermarket Analysis - Gold vs US02YIn an unmistakeable correlation, a higher short end of the curve means gold is relatively less attractive to own. This argument has strong claims on both reason and evidence... Hence, with a hikepending, watch for gold lower.
Nas100 Short PositionsNAS100 SHORT
TP1 Swing low appx 4790-4800
TP2 Swing low appx 4700-4720
TP3 Swing low appx 4630-4640
This week is all about what central banks aren’t going to do, but also the limited impact of what they’ve done already. The FOMC meeting in the US unlikely to produce a change in policy. Market pricing is now only places a 20% chance of a hike in rates this week and just over 50% chance of a hike before the year end.
Forex Rates Today BlogOne of the best source to stay updated with the latest in Forex Market . Find details related to today's exchange rates and instant currency converter here.
If Prices Continue up for BOJ Rates...i've down my bearish analysis on USDJPY if price reverses down. but incase price breaks 104.30 we should see price head all the way up to 106, terminating @ 78.6 of the bearish Gartley.
EURUSD Short - Bearish DivergenceTechnicals (Bearish) - Price has just tested resistance zone and showing signs of bearish momentum, the divergence provides confluence.
Fundamentals (Bearish) - Increasing speculation around USD rate hike provides more bearish momentum for the pair.
Rate hike indicator: the 3 month treasury The reason for Friday's massive market selling is said to be because of the Fed's message that the rate hike is coming.
Seems that it may just be broad market selling after a period of complacent low VIX and broader overvaluation.
For confirmation that the rate hike is coming I'll be watching the 3 month treasury rate closely for signs.
A move from .30 to .55 would seem reasonable over the next several months if we are to see 25 bps increase for 2016.
In 2015 the 0.25% rate increase was starting to be priced in by late October into early December.
The CME Fedwatch tool currently shows the futures are betting on 58% chance of rate hike by Dec.
