NZDUSD: Harmonic Trade On FX:NZDUSD we have a nice potential cypher pattern. Our stops go above the resistance level 0.6330, this level is pretty nice. And our targets will be fib 38.2 and 61.8. As we see price has broken structure level of B leg and now wait the pattern completion.
Avto_T
Green Luck
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Ratio
GBPJPY: The Bat is Readywe have a very nice Bat pattern on FX:GBPJPY which is almost completed. Stops must go below the structure level 184.22, look left and check it. And our targets are 38.2 and 61.8 fib levels with the confluences of very nice key levels. Be aware that price has a high momentum, let it calm down and then go long. Besides we have a very nice confluence of weekly S1 right at the structure support level.
Avto_T
Green Luck
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EURAUD: Get Ready for Big MondaySunday Morning Traders!
What we have for Monday is a very nice long setup on FX:EURAUD
So we have a nice bearish channel and inside the channel nice ABCD pattern which is more likely to complete somewhere in the Red Zone with the confluences of: 1. Fibs extension 1.272; 2. structure support 1.5581; look left and check this level. 3. channel edge right at these levels. If the price enters this reversal zone we buy EUR. Out targets are somewhere at the channel resistance level @1.5870 wit the confluence of fibs 0.618 and support level @1.5818. Keep an eye on this setup.
Avto_T
Green Luck
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EURJPY: Pattern and StructureHere is another setup on FX:EURJPY We have a very , very nice shorting opportunity. There is a very good structure @137.04, look left for more confluence. Besides the structure we have a completed bearish bat pattern.
I suggest to go short at structure as the market has upward momentum, and according to my analyzes the structure must act like a wall.
Our stops go above the resistance and profit targets go around the green zone.
Avto_T
GL (Green Luck)
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EURJPY: Sell EUR, sell it!Harmonic pattern is ready to go short on FX:EURJPY
We have a bearish gartley with the confluence of fibs 61.8.
Our target 1 is around the next support and fibs 31.8 and the target 2 deeper support with fibs 61.8.
Besides look left and check the structure levels for more confluence.
GL (Green Luck)
Avto_T
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Potential Cypher Pattern completion at 1.13387Looking for potential Cypher Pattern completion at 1.13387. Putting stops 20 pips above X at 1.13827. Target 1 & 2 at .382 & .618 Fibonachi retracement. 2.59 risk/reward at T2. Rolling stops to break even if we hit T1. Don’t forget to add a little cushion for the spread. Plan your trade and trade your plan.
NZDCAD/Pair trade: Just short everything...I like to go short, I find the best trades I take are shorts, not sure why, but it's true.
Here we have 3 short opportunities, which are linked by correlations.
The NZDCAD ratio chart, or exotic pair if you want to call it that is offering us a nice trend continuation opportunity.
I will use this as a way to hedge my exposure to a more aggressive and more of a 'long shot' trade that I want to take in USDCAD, which is a short under the last daily low (and a second entry a bit lower). The trend was strongly up but rgmov has peaked before the last top, and the time at mode trend signal has expired in the daily.
It's possible this is an intermediate correction before a new leg up, that I have no way to know (I do have a projected top target a bit higher) but it's looking like a compelling short sell right here, right now.
As for NZDUSD, everyone and their mother wants to find the market bottom, but that's usually a hard and risky endeavor, so I will short in the face of range expansion resistance, and a clear downtrend with a nice push up thanks to the gold short squeeze rally, which gives us a nicer entry and clear stop location.
Here's the entry and sl parameters (if you trade the individual pairs, I will be trading with no stop loss on the *usd pairs, and with a stop and lower leverage in nzdcad):
NZDCAD: Entry under last daily low, stop above the last highest high. Target is a retest of the lowest low at least.
USDCAD: Entry under last daily low, stop above the highest high, no tp but watch levels on chart. Second entry at 1.29157, same SL. Splitting this in two equal risk % is a good idea.
NZDUSD: Entry under last daily low, stop above the highest high, no tp. Simple...
If you want to trade the no SL pair trade setup, find the ADR of each pair (which is /4) and then base position size on risking the desired percentage of your capital on the whole position. Adjust the smaller ADR pair position size by the result of dividing the larger ADR by the smaller one.
Here I get:
USDCAD: 99.5 pips per day
NZDUSD: 92.1 pips per day
So, 99.5/92.1=1.080347448425624.
Thus, we risk 1-5% on each side of the trade, but the smaller ADR one is multiplied by 1.080347448425624 to get the correct lot size.
That's how I trade these at least.
See related ideas for my longer term view on gold, and other important correlations. Special shout out to jangseohee, he brought the nzdcad chart to my attention again. His ideas are linked there too.
Good luck,
Ivan.
Sell Short JetBlue (JBLU) compared to Buy Southwest (LUV)The ratio of LUV/JBLU is turning up after a long slide of 50% from 3.00 down to 1.50 where it is breaking a 5+ month downtrend in the past two days.
If you look at the pure price chart overlay of the two stocks, they oscillate back and forth over time and looking back one year (in this chart) you can see that LUV is lagging a bit lately and JBLU is ahead of itself.
I am looking at putting on both of these positions: Short JBLU to fall relative to LUV. And Long LUV to rally relative to JBLU.
Risk 3% to make 10% over the next 10-15 days.
Tim 1:48PM EST Friday, July 24, 2015
GBPUSD: Trend & Counter Trend Opportunities I have a handful of trades on my radar today but I wanted to concentrate on the GBPUSD this morning because of the multiple opportunities. The main trade that I’m looking for is the Bearish trend continuation setup. This market has clearly broken structure to the downside and if we get relief we have an excellent structure level to predict where our next pullback will come to.
We’ve also just come into a minor support level which may offer counter trend traders a buying opportunity. This will be something that I dig into during my live room on a smaller timeframe (waiting for confirmation ofcourse), but with the RSI buried, minor structure and a little Fibonacci ratio confluence, my eyes are certainly looking for a chance to buy the GBPUSD as the bears become exhausted.
We had a good day in the Syndicate yesterday. I went 1 for 2 and I’m pretty sure Jason went 2 for 2 on his NZDUSD and GBPJPY shorts. Also on my radar today is the GBPAUD, EURJPY (already long), GBPJPY (already long), EURUAD and AUDCAD
Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analyst
www.TradeEmpowered.com
Akil@Tradeempowered.com /@AkilStokesRTM /
Forex Weekend Review Videos:
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EURUSD 1HR: Two Structure Levels for ShortsI've explained this trade in detail during my latest Weekend Review video (link below), so i'll try to be brief. Like everyone else, I want to buy Dollars & Sell Euros based off of the fundamentals. With that being said it's important that we don't try and jump on the bandwagon because that's how a lot of rookie traders get burnt. Rather, we should stick to what got us here, the technicals and use our skill of technical analysis to predict where the next relief rally will end and find a low risk opportunity to get involved. (By low risk I mean, putting myself in the position where my potential profit is larger than my potential drawdown).
As mentioned in the below video, I like the higher level of structure a lot more than the lower one, but both are worth keeping an eye on for the next leg down. It's crystal clear that the U.S. wants to raise interest rates. The best guess is September, but they have left it open by saying it depends on the economic data. I still believe that this market is prime to ignore any negative USD data (unless it's drastic) and waiting to rally on any "at expected" or positive USD news. These opinions won't affect my trading as far as looking for long or short opportunities, but they're good to know especially if the opportunity comes to shoot for extended targets.
Have a great week traders and make sure you check out the other videos in my Weekend Review Playlist.
"Maybe I Got Too Fired Up" www.youtube.com
Bearish ButterflyAll limit orders were hit, and this looks to be an exceptional trade.. Am I wary about getting into this trade after we just had a bullish harmonic confirmation? Not the least but.. Risk management is essential.
If you follow me on Facebook, I actually posted this screenshot a few days ago, and my orders finally got filled.
Gold/Silver Ratio | Channel Slope to Watch | Fib LevelsFellow Traders,
This is not a trade idea - yet - but rather an informative piece of info on the Gold/Silver ratio that precious metal traders should take note of.
I believe the channel slope posted here is validated and I see several points of contact that shows me the slope is still in play. As we know, precious metals have been falling since Apr 2011, which coincides with the low shown here on the Gold/Silver ratio. Why is this the case? Silver is more volatile than Gold. When precious metals prices rise, Silver tends to outperform Gold, hence from 2008 to 2011, we saw the Gold/Silver Ratio decreasing. When the prices of precious metals fall, Silver falls to a greater extent than Gold, hence we see the ratio of Gold/Silver increasing.
What I see here corresponds to the recent consolidation of Gold and Silver without any clear direction of movement. What's interesting to me is also that we see the Gold/Silver ratio pausing at the completion of the AB=CD mark at around 74.27 and closer to the 75 price level.
Let's see if this chart and slope can give us hints to a change of behaviour in the Gold and Silver prices in time to come. I will be looking for signs where the Gold/Silver ratio reverses and breaks downwards and out of the channel. If this happens, we will see a significant move in both Silver and Gold in my opinion.
Until then, keep watch.
Luke
Dow/Gold ratio at importance resistance, expecting downsideThe Dow Jones Industrial to Gold ratio has reached a key resitance area near the 15 level for the completion of what we believe was corrective wave 4. We are expecting a continuation of the bearish move with the final downwave V. First target near the 2011 low of 5.69.
How to properly scale your chartsMany charting tools require a proper scaling of price / time.
This is the method I'm using to scale my charts if needed.
1) Draw a rectangle somewhere on your chart
2) Set it's coordinates to 1:1
So if the price coordinates are 300/350 , set the bar (time)
coordinates to have the same difference of 50 in this case
3) Draw a "Fib Speed Resistance Arc". You can find it in the
second tool bar menu where you also find the Fib Retracement
4) Set it's PRICE coordinates to the same you have set for the rectangle.
For both BAR coordinates you use the smaller number from the rectangle bar coordinates.
Now after you have done that drag one axis (price or time) and move it around.
Watch the upper right corner of the rectangle cross with the fib arcs.
If it crosses with the 1 fib arc, you have a 1:1 scaling.
On the chart example you can see it cross the 3 fib arc so the scaling is 3:1
If you found a nice scaling, right-click the price axis and select "Lock Scale"
so you can zoom in and out of the chart without changing the scaling.
You can try the following scaling ratios:
0.5 / 1 / 1.272 / 1.414 / 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / ...
also all the X.618 ratios could be usefull. (0.618 / 1.618 / 2.618 / 3.618 / ... )
Let me know how this works out for you and feel
free to leave a comment if something is unclear.
Cheerz : ]
SPHS Oversold, Filling the Gap, cash/share > share priceSophiris Bio had a Phase III drug trial test showing the drug was not effective and the market overreacted. The chart has a cash/share value (mrq) of $1.74, the float is 16.78 Million Shares (note today's volume alone is a large part of that), so with a tiny float, more cash per share on hand than the market price, and upcoming results for new Phase III results for other products, one can see why people are buying this up right now.
ENIP Good Reward to Risk Trade BullishTaking a recent swing low and swing high, the risk reward tool can measure potential profit to risk when stopped out and give the reward to risk ratio. Moving the mouse over the shaded area, here we see we can potentially make 375% while risking only 32.14% or in other words the ratio is 11.67, which is excellent. Any time one can use this tool to find a trade that has a ratio of 3 or more, that is great. It makes the odds so that effectively one could take every trade and have it be a coin toss winning half the time for 3x the bet and losing half the time for all the bet, and not care about it because the trades would breakeven with no loss all together. So even the slightest edge where it be due dilligence or trading system or indicator to make those trades even slightly better than a coin toss, then a profit is made.
During backtesting trading techniques, if something is found that works 60-70% of the time that's great. Use it with trade setups that are reward to risk ratio over 3. That is a profitable way to make money trading. Whatever trading system is used it doesn't have to be super-perfect, complex, fancy, or better than anyone else, just "good enough" is fine.
USOIL: WAITING FOR THE SELLI don't typically watch oil too much but with all that's been in the news over the past few weeks how could I resist. Also being involved in the USDCAD trade that I shared with you guys last week caused me to keep one eye open as well.
Anyway, despite the fundamentals (some of which are screaming short) the technicals are what matter to me most and in a heavy downtrend I'm not looking to hop on the bullish move late, rather I'd be looking for the next place to reload short orders and see if I can catch the next wave down. Syndicate members I'm going to record a brief video for you outlining this trade so check your emails in a little while. But I think I did a rather good job of trying to be as detailed as possible with all that I see.
I actually think we could go lower at our current point so this one may be worth taking two shots on.
XAU/USD: The Next Place To Trade GOLDFollowing up on my last video XAU/USD offers another opportunity to demonstrate the various ways to use Fibonacci tools. IF price action were to break our current structure level to the upside, THEN we're looking at a potential reversal zone that offers previous structure resistance, and a Fibonacci cluster. For a more detailed explanation of my analysis on this pair click the link below for the video I recorded.
WATCH THE VIDEO HERE www.youtube.com
The Short and Long of the EURNZDThe EURNZD is currently in choppy waters but i think based on my analysis, for some hope. Currently on the Gartley pattern we are at a potential AB projection to form the C leg of the Gartley pattern if that happens(as we are @ the 26-18 trade setup), we could ride the C leg to form a Gartley completion @ the PRZ, 1.5623. If this happens we could look to get long. This however will take some time. The whole objective is you have 2 chances to get involved here Long OR short.
Good Trading Guys
GBPJPY: What's Next After The Breakout? ....Back to the Analysis… now that we’ve put in a lower low, lower close and the RSI is buried, I think 1 of 2 things will occur. Either we’ll continue straight down to the Fibonacci cluster which comes in at structure, or we’ll see some relief that will result in a retest into previous structure support which should now act as resistance. Now I would shy away from a buy at the current level because absolutely no valid structure exist for protection (at minimum I would recommend waiting for a double bottom or 26-18 setups), but if we do indeed rally up to previous structure I would certainly look for a selling opportunity and a chance to ride it down to a retest of previous support and ultimately an extension to the Fibonacci cluster I mentioned earlier where I may get yet another buying chance.
Above was an excerpt from my recent blog post titled "Predictions" ratiotradingmentor.com
EURJPY: Building a case for entryLooking a a structure based long opportunity here as price actions looks to retest previous structure support. We've got a combination of multiple harmonic moves lining up with a Fibonacci cluster and of course structure looking left. As of now I'm waiting to see how price action reacts within this zone before committing to an entry.
Confidence Ratio Going DownA great indicator to determine the confidence (ie. risk appetite) of investors/speculators is the XLY/XLP ratio. XLY is the ETF for consumer discretionary stocks whereas XLP is the ETF for constumer staples stocks. In times of confidence, XLY should perform better than XLP because there is belief that the economy is doing well and that people will spend cash on things that are not absolutely necessary.
The ratio has been tracking US equities indexes fairly well over the last years, but now we see major divergence. XLY/XLP is moving down and from a technical analysis standpoint it does not look like it is about to go rise back anytime soon.
Yet, at the same time, the S&P 500 has been hitting all-time highs. This performance seems like it is not supported by risk appetite - which it should!
So what should you do from here? Short this ratio? Short the S&P? That is all up to you. This is just another factor from a long list that supports the thesis that equities are overextended.
Good luck trading.