Ratiotrading
An interesting ratio I have been paying attention to for 2 yearsJust an interesting ratio to watch, I saved a lot by moving from LTC to XMR by watching this. Possibly time to very slowly start moving back to LTC. Keep in mind XMR has a much lower circulating supply, so this ratio could get much lower.
Gold vs Silver : Recovery Trade (Log Ratio Chart)Gold - Silver ratio at 20 year highs - short gold vs long silver adding to risk as recovery horizon becomes clearer. Very long term chart here .
Refiners : Crude Recovery Play with limited equities market riskA great way to play crude recovery is long CRAK - the oil refiner ETF vs short SPY (overall large caps). Refiners have better margins with low oil prices and looking at their margins is a good way to gauge the demand for physical. The ratio has broken 0.7 and I expect to see it at 0.9 or a 30% return as recovery gathers steam.
Gold Stocks vs Financials : Near Critical BreakoutLong Gold stocks HUI and short Financial XLF ratio close to 15 level breakout. Above and we are off to the races. Note the post 2008 crisis long term outperformance.
Wall Mart vs Dow : Bottom Indicator to watchWall Mart NYSE:WMT is making new all time highs - interesting to monitor the WMT / DIA ratio as a potential long term equity lows indicator. Close but still not there.
BTC Longterm Ratio Analysis [Some Maths]----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-------------------------Observation-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Price Increase 1: 3,291%
Price Increase 2: 1,641% (50% less than Increase 1)
-------------------------Prediction------------------------------------
Price Increase 3: 820% (50% less than Increase 2)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-------------------------Observation-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Price Drop 1: -94%
Price Drop 2: -83%
-------------------------Prediction------------------------------------
Price Drop 3: -88% (Average of Drop 1 and 2)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-------------------------Observation-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bull Bars 1: 94 Bars
Bull Bars 2: 249 Bars
Bull Bars 3: 356 Bars
-------------------------Prediction------------------------------------
Bull Bars 4: 397 Bars (94 to 249 = 164%, 249 to 356 = 43%, 164% to 43% = -73%, 43% - 73% = 11.6%, 356 + 11.6% = 397)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-------------------------Observation-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bear Bars 1: 51 Bars
Bear Bars 2: 138 Bars
-------------------------Prediction------------------------------------
Bear Bars 3: 234 Bars (170% increase)
-Hawk
OMGBTC / long / 5% of depoOMGBTC
5% of depo
signal / wait to buy
sharpe / -3.72
sortino / -0.59
24high / 0.0000243
AEBTC / long / 5% of depo / strong buy#theminimalist
AEBTC / 5% of depo / strong buy
sharpe / -3.76
sortino / -0.60
24high / 0.0000749
S&P500 Beautiful piece of analysis BIG ratio benefitDoji formation in one of the most powerful zones i have in the SPX, lets see how this one plays. Meduim term trade.
Potential Short opportunityStructure with fib clusters. Still a valid bat, but i require the C leg to touch 0.618 to be a valid bat to me
Potential Bearish Bat Pattern on EURUSDEven with all of the Craziness in 2018, one of the things that still held true was...
...Bat Patterns!
And right now, you have a very nice potential Bat Pattern setting up on the EURUSD.
The completion point is at 1.1474 and minimum stops should be above X (my stops are 1 Atr above X at 1.1512.
Potential T1 is at a 38.2 Retracement of A-D and T2 is at a 61.8.
As always, make sure you follow your plan.
Good luck and good trading.
LTC - LARGE Support touch at crossroads BIG SIGNALSince the initial price break, LTC has just checked into the original bullish support as we got dragged down by the King, BTC. It is a very interesting place we have stopped as this happens to be the crossroads of the bottom support of the pennant and longest bullish support line. As long as it holds, it should send us up and out of the triangle. A lot of longs have been liquidated at this point - look for price chasing if we go up, especially if we spike quickly. This is LTC's last shot.
There is also a bullish divergence in the RSI and LTC/BTC is in a giant pennant looking to breakout as well - meaning breaking free from BTC prices for a little while and not being rag-dolled down. July 17th seems to be an important date based off LTC/BTC - then end of the pennant. The start of the moonshot, or the expiration date for litecoin? - very interested in finding out.
If you're wondering about the roman numerals, search "three drives pattern" - please thumbs up if you want this updated regularly with targets and what not.
This is not financial advice or trading advice. Just interpreting the charts as they change. Do your own research -- you have the internet at your fingertips don't put your whole fate in someone else's hands.
Bitcoin - The Bull Scenario As you all know, there is a lot of uncertainty running through the crypto market at this time. Many worry that Bitcoins parabolic trend is broken and an even more serious correction could be on its way.
However, Based on Trendline Analysis the chart above shows a very different possibility.
We recently just bounce off two historical trendlines, one at the low of 9200 and most recently again at 9800, which created a very precise higher low.
This all of which is happening in what appears to be a giant Bull Flag.
Taking this analysis a step further; As seen in the chart below, BTC has had several large corrections in the past. All of which have lead us to new highs.
Based on ratio analysis, plus the magnitude of this last leg. BTC should've have seen approximately an 49% retracement from its all time high.
So as long as a larger correction is not in play, the 53% correction should suffice.
My Plan of Action:
The key thing for us to do now is to keep the daily close above that dashed line.
IF it is held, I expect a nice bounce within the next couple days.
IF this line is not held, there is still hope for the Bulls. I would then look for entry within the green support zone shown above.
IF we are able to successfully break up from the Bull Flag, The lines above mark possible resistance.
Clearer Target Points will be determined after this occurs.
Things to watch out for:
A Daily Break below the support zone, could be a very dangerous sign.
I will likely close all long trades if this should happen.
Also, this post does mean I am Bull. I am merrily showing the possibilities.
Yes, the ratio chart above seems promising, however if you zoom out further, the chart tells a very different story.
Meaning there is still the strong possibility of a larger correction in play.
Requiring all of us to think and react dynamically.
I wish you all the best of luck.
DISCLAIMER:
Please note I am only providing my own trading information for your benefit and insight to my trading techniques, you should do your own due diligence and not take this information as a trade signal.
Gold:Bitcoin Ratio Now Higher Than Physical Gold:Silver Ratio!You know that old crypto saying: "Litecoin is Silver to Bitcoin's Gold". Well now 'Gold is Silver to Bitcoin's Sound Money Supremacy'. Well in price ratio terms it is. I know I'm not comparing apples with apples, & for the purpose of not embarrassing Gold's post crypto performance any further, it's probably best I don't. But in terms of available supply, there are currently 777,275 metric tonnes of Silver, compared to 166,500 metric tonnes of Gold; Which gives a physical supply ratio of roughly 4.66 tonnes of Silver to each tonne of Gold. This obviously doesn't translate to the current Gold to Silver price ratio, that currently sits around today 75:1. This is why many think Silver, which has many irreducible industrial & technological applications is often sighted as a sleeping giant in terms of investment vehicles. But like gold, silver suffers heavily under the influence of secondary & futures markets, that trade paper contracts leveraged many multiples over & above the underlying physical metal good for delivery. Opting instead to settle 'delivery' in fiat currencies rather than physical metal. And herein lies the beauty of Bitcoin, with it's own baked into the protocol permissionless instant settlement & good delivery mechanism it will always be an impossible beast to bridle, as secondary & futures markets prove to be superfluous to it.
Sources:
demonocracy.info
demonocracy.info
Tough Bear Cypher OppWith an exhausted RSI, the bulls may have a difficult stretch to fully reach the 78.6, D leg retracement of XC.
Analysis of EURJPYI just put out a video breaking down the EURJPY. Now you can see i have a ton of stuff written on this chart, but it is a good example of planning ahead and staying two steps ahead of the market. Now we just broke out of the bearish flag pattern and we have a projection leading down to a bullish bat pattern completion. If you would like to see the video here is the link: youtu.be
Good luck and good trading
Gold-Silver-RatioIt is always worth a look at the gold-silver ratio. Currently, gold is 76 times more expensive than silver (per ounce). In the past, it has been shown that the area above 78 is an extreme area and can be used for trades. In this case, you would sell gold and buy silver.
NZDUSD Bracketing the MarketTwo potential cypher patterns completing on the their respective 0.786 D point.
The D point of the bullish cypher also lies on a previous area of support.
USDCHF Potential Cypher & Past Gartley AnalysisI was able to benefit from a short term shorting opportunity last night on this pair, when I spotted a Gartley pattern (green) finishing at previous structure, along with RSI divergence.
I decided to enter at the 1.272 extension of the A to B move, as the 0.786 retracement of the X to A move offered a bad Risk/Reward ratio.
I am now waiting on the completion of this potential Cypher pattern (blue) at the 0.786 retracement.
Bullish Cypher Pattern on NZDUSDThere is a potential bullish Cypher pattern setting up on NZDUSD. This pattern will potentially complete @.68457. Minimum stops must be below X @.68176 with target 1 at .6885 and target 2 at .6909.
As always, follow your plan.
Good luck and good trading.
