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ridethepig | Flash Crash In Play For AUDCNH !!A major breakdown ahead of the open as markets catch up to the virus disruptions. AUD and global trade are set to suffer for sometime, it will take a brave man to step against this flow. On the monetary side, RBA tee'd up a rate cut in April with another in Q3 on the cards. Housing has already done the heavy lifting, will need A LOT more help from elsewhere to create a positive outlook in the near-term for AUD. PBOC in a 'whatever it takes' moment with the printer starting to overheat. On the technicals, the doldrum 4.7-4.9 range remained intact throughout 2019. Since the new decade we have broken the lower end in the range via coronavirus trigger, a screaming warning for what is cooking globally. We are sitting at key support 4.5 which needs to hold otherwise we have a flash crash in play towards 4.3 - 4.25. Unless buyers step in quickly we are set to lose support on panic. Continue to sell weakness if we lose support. For those tracking USDCNH : For those tracking EURCNH : Lastly, for those tracking Chinese Equities : Best of luck all those in CNH, risks come from further PBOC intervention although looks like they ran out of time! Thanks all for keeping the likes, comments and charts coming!
Short
by ridethepig
1
RBA Monetary Policy Meeting. AUDNZD bear domination?!RBA is less likely to provide further support to the Aussie dollar and expect any AUD weakness to be mostly channeled through a lower AUD/NZD, where the monetary policy differential may be more evident (given a neutral RBNZ). Market participants in this cross-currency seem to price in ahead of the meeting where we can see a strong bearish pressure for now in the price action for this cross. We have a key level 1.03753 which acted as support in the past and this level has good weigh as it lines up with weekly pivot point s3 and descending channel lower trendline (acts as supports). Break lower through this key level with good bearish momentum should signal us price can dive more near the major support 1.03131 or even further depending on the outlook reaction after the meeting. If RBA ends up neutral or surprise hike bearish may lose its momentum strength.
Short
by Anatta0
1
ridethepig | AUD Macro Updates Via Coronavirus ImpactOn the macro chart we are still chopping around the same lows that will mark the ending of a currency cycle alongside a turn in commodities. The coronavirus expectation and impact legs are short-circuiting the reflationary trade that markets were so eager to jump on board with towards the back-end of 2019. Sadly numbers outside of China keep growing and economic impact is entering under the spotlight. As long as things do not improve on the virus front we are going to see a major flush down in AUD and continuation of the same USD bid. Tracking closely the open today, smells like Tokyo are going to ring the risk alarms. A rather wild week on the technical side after a significant break through the 0.670x support, this is unlocking a test of 0.645x RBA floor via rate differential. This move looks particularly vulnerable considering where we are with Copper and Iron ore: Good luck all those in AUD or looking to add positions. Actively looking to add shorts on any spikes into 0.670x or even front running with 0.668x, a waterfall breakdown is in play until we will see some local exporter buying interest which is initially found at 0.645x and 0.632x.
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | AUDNZD Breaking Higher !!A superb time to update the AUDNZD chart after a fresh technical breakup yesterday. The Q4 prints from antipodeans is very positive and actually triggering a slightly hawkish tilt by the RBA. Despite the brutal domestic story in Australia with bushfires and coronavirus spillovers, Scott Morrison has done the heavy lifting via housing policies. There is a lot of AUD shorts to be unwound by leveraged retailers creating a massive upside in AUDNZD with a supportive price driver. The hawkish shift by RBA is subtle and not visible by the naked eye, there is not a single mention of coronavirus spillover effects on growth and if anything emphasis on just how temporary the impacts are. For the technical picture things are a lot clearer in the medium term (see diagram below): This is clearly rallying towards the 1.07-1.08 area as the bottom is defined and established. For the short-term the picture is a little more complex (as we have RBNZ on the wires this week), the double bottom set-up in play will imply a minimum flow towards 1.065x. Don't forget to keep the likes and comments rolling in!
Long
by ridethepig
2
AUDJPY Market OverviewIt looks like a successful break-and-retest. AUD/JPY found resistance at the former support level around 74.25 and is resuming its slide to the next downside targets. The 38.2% Fibonacci extension level appears to be holding as support at the moment, but stochastic has room to move lower before reflecting exhaustion among sellers. Bearish pressure could still take the pair down to the next support areas, possibly around the 50% Fib that lines up with the swing low and around s1-s2 of the weekly pivot. Worst case for Aussie bulls should lead the price lower dip extension at 78.60% which line up with the s3. Another speech by RBA Governor Lowe is coming up soon, and negative remarks could hurt the Aussie, especially if risk appetite stays lows.
by Anatta0
AUDUSD: possible long scenarioI have short position with 0.6779 stop (check my previous post) and i think if audusd breaks that level i should be with buyers. ..global uncertainty around China seems to have calmed down a bit, also recent RBA's statement had positive note regarding Australian economy. So joining bulls from 0.6779 with 0.675 stop and 0.687 T/P level provides decent R:R (3.14). Keep in mind that this idea might be realized in several days and opening long position in AUDUSD results negative swap. // Feel free to share your opinion/position via comment and follow me to stay updated.
Long
by GIgor_021
AUDCHF Short BiasAussie pairs got a good boost from the RBA decision in the Asian session as the central bank sounded optimistic about global and domestic growth prospects. However, this bullish reaction might be short-lived as market players remain mostly risk-averse while coronavirus contagion fears are present. AUD/CHF is trading below 200 SMA visible on its 1-hour time frame which aligns with the descending trendline acting as a major resistance, stoch point out oversold. Price rejecting from the 200 SMA and descending trendline and falling below the weekly pivot point should point of bearish sentiment weight over this cross pair and the if the coronavirus fear doesn't end at the point swiss franc being lower-yielding might keep taking advantage of risk-off flows!
by Anatta0
1
Weekly Inside Bar - Reversal next week - BUY AUDNZDGood afternoon traders, The AUDNZD is creating an inside bar on the weekly time frame. This is a strong reversal signal when at a major support or resistance level. RBA Interest Rate decision next Tuesday. Due to a turn around in the housing market, as well as strong employment figures, the RBA could hold interest rates steady. Jump down to a daily time frame there is also a bullish divergence on the RSI. Any thoughts and comments welcome!
Long
by ForexStoreau
2
BoC Cuts & RBA Hold - AUDCAD Double Whammy!Highlights overnight going to AUD with overshoots in the U-rate as expected. This number is going to trigger the RBA surprise hold that we have been tracking in this diagram: Large hands spotted on the AUD bid last ear and will continue to do so as a lot more unwinding of positions needs to take place from those betting on FURTHER rate cuts. Tracking 0.692x in AUDUSD as a sensible target from the initial knee-jerk reaction. The strategy for the flows from the AUD side in the chart have been dissected here in this diagram: On the CAD side , Poloz caught me by surprise with a very dovish BoC. This was particularly surprising considering his pokerface at the fireside chat only two weeks ago! Focus now shifts onto whether this will be a “one off” cut…in my books the move in USDCAD should be contained by the 1.32 handle - the data (although below par) is not weak enough to justify a full blown cutting cycle. On the positioning side , long and medium term flows are still betting heavily long CAD so expect 1.32xx to provide a good opportunity to re-engage with a swing back towards 1.28xx later in the year as those longs from the recent rally begin to unwind. Good luck all those in AUDCAD and holding for the long-term, this is going to the highs like a knife through butter. As usual, thanks for all the support with likes, comments, charts and etc !!
Long
by ridethepig
2
Elliott Wave - BUY AUDUSD - Get ready for wave 5Good morning traders, Today we are looking at the AUDUSD There appears to be a clear 1-4 wave structure. Waves 1 and 3 are made up of a 5 wave structure, wave 2 and 4 are made up of a 3 wave corrective structure. Bullish divergence on the 4 hour RSI, The AUDUSD is re-testing a key trend line, The RBA has previously signalled the economy could be facing a gentle turning point, the housing market and employment data has been positive recently. Another positive result today, followed by an increase in CPI next week could reduce the chances of a FEB rate cut. Check the DXY index, the index is also re-testing a key trend line, suggesting we could also see a weaker USD over the next couple of weeks. Any thoughts or comments are welcome!
Long
by ForexStoreau
2
ridethepig | AUD Strategy NotesThe main and secondary functions of the next swing. How it behaves, when it strikes and becomes impulsive, and how it does when put under pressure from the defender. The function of the zig-zag and impulsive wave is to immobilise our opponent. The retrace is a tree-shaker, it itself tends to be very flexible. And yet it is common for retail to display signs of considerable over-exposure and lack of flexbility. Namely: (1) From the Macro chart: (2) A potential CB short-circuit: It seems that on the longer term charts AUD has already packed its bag and set out on its travels. (a) the journey looks promising; buy the dips and look to cover positions into resistance. (b) if it returns to the starting point of the journey to squeeze early buyers (c) if RBA is in a position to take care of the monetary side. It is crystal clear that RBA have previously hinted at the idea of a Feb cut, the protection here comes from the RBNZ surprise hold. Although it may not seem so, the RBNZ lead is of great importance; it shows how little elasticity the RBA & RBNZ have. For the details on the cross I keep digging deeper in AUDNZD, we are approaching key value levels and RBNZ has shown signs of distress with NZD at this level: In this simplest of all swings, AUD sellers will take a short holiday and allow the break of 0.692x. There is a clear head and shoulders technical setup with 0.684x neckline. Should we lose these lows (unlikely) then the move towards 0.675x is unlocked. Assuming employment data holds on Wednesday then RBA will remain on hold and market will be caught out of position. As usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc. Jump into the conversation with your charts, ideas and questions!
Long
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | AUD Market Commentary 2020.01.16AUD and NZD will continue to trade tight ranges after mixed data from NZ overnight. 📊 Chart of the day 📊is going to NZDUSD: Market is clearly presenting another very good opportunity to cover 0.664/6x and initially target 0.660x. In AUDUSD same drill as before, tracking 0.692x for a similar move back towards 0.685x lows in the range. This idea is no less imaginative than the previous call for inside range trading: Good luck all those in AUD and NZD for the coming sessions, as usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc. Jump into the conversation with your charts and idea on AUD & NZD.
Short
by ridethepig
7
ridethepig | AUD Market Commentary 2020.01.10Ending the week with instructive profit taking from bulls in exemplary fashion....Average hourly earnings disappointing but nothing to write home about. Highlights in the report going to manufacturing jobs getting crushed via protectionism and those maintaining longs now have a free hand to play the next short-term swing. I love it when USD goes for a walk. The move in play for the coming sessions and looks difficult to defend against. I am tracking 0.6925x to prevent the breakup for bulls this week and trigger profit taking. After an exchange of direction flanking works decisively well and the execution timing-wise is of importance. For those tracking the 2020 AUD Macro map and digging into the fundamental side I would highly recommend checking the following diagram: Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc. If you have any questions/charts as usual jump into the comments and we can open the conversations. Good luck all those in AUD.
Short
by ridethepig
6
ridethepig | AUD Market Commentary 2020.01.09AUD completing the retrace and starting to form support as Trump confirms the end of the circus. Australian local macro prints have started to improve, particularly in the housing sector and on the trade side. For the menu tonight we have retail sales in play and a leg back towards 0.69x looks imminent. On the macro side, RBA expected to cut once more in Feb to 0.5% and the rate cycle is already over. If data continues to improve and follow the solid unemployment prints we saw last week, then they will have missed the boat to cut once more as income tax cut later in the year. This will be enough to keep AUD in bid over 2020 and 2021 with a clean zig zag trading-wise. While the multi-year chart is crystal clear: Here AUDNZD would be worth thinking about increasing long exposure in order to follow up the coming RBNZ intervention / AUD outperformance leg. However, this plan to attack the highs is currently impossible, because AUD markets are still pricing a move from RBA in Feb. The correct manoeuvre, despite all counters will come from the AUD side: We will do a deep dive into the USD side with NFP tomorrow for the flows in the live telegram with a round of chart updates and strategy outlooks. GL all those in AUDUSD, thanks as usual for keeping the likes and comments rolling in!
Long
by ridethepig
4
ridethepig | AUDNZD Finding A Floor?Here AUDNZD would be worth thinking about increasing long exposure in order to follow up the coming RBNZ intervention / AUD outperformance leg. However, this plan to attack the highs is currently impossible, because AUD markets are still pricing a move from RBA in Feb. The correct manoeuvre, despite all counters will come from the AUD side: NZD is well blockaded in the 2020 map: AUD on the other hand has catching up to do: I often consider the lows as the stem game for my new philosophy in the swing. As can be viewed here, bears are constantly trying to force its opponent to surrender the lows. This sort of tendency, which toys with the idea of what is happening is cooking what I call a surprise strategy. The move will come from AUD data overshooting and taking RBA off Feb off the table, this will close the cycle in monetary policy and mark the official transition into the next chapter of economics. We are trading the second leg in the swing: GL all those in AUDNZD, thanks as usual for keeping the likes and comments rolling in. Feel free to post your charts and ideas in the comments.
Long
by ridethepig
ridethepig | Aus 10yr Holding SupportA noteworthy breakout in Aus 10yr with the technical damage already done as bulls remain supportive at the lows. The 38.2% from the impulsive leg, although still yet to be tested will cap any further downside in the coming weeks. Here we are dealing with the capture of the pinned retrace. We have heaped up the size of our attack, but have to face up to the disappointment that said 38.2% cheerfully remains open and unlocked for a further test. The rascal was not locked yet, at the most only 'partially' ...however the issue of how to execute the impulsive nature in the attack is easily solved with the technical break. The risk to reasoning here comes from the final diagram: AUD is becoming supported by the improvements in capex intentions which is picking up faster than expected. Government infrastructure is too important and remains high before expiry in 2021. As long as the consumer re-leverages and we activity in the corp sector improves AUD will present the correct procedure for bulls and with the intention of avoiding a loss in momentum, we must track the breakout in this case the AU 10yr. We can update the thread over the coming Weeks, Months and Quarters so feel free to jump in with your idea generation and we can further the discussion for all. Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc!
TVC:AU10
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | AUD 2019 In ReviewHere we go with an update to AUD as we enter in 1H20. Consumers remain the key to the flows here, in my books markets overpriced odds of another cut from RBA in Feb 2020 ahead of income tax cuts in the middle of the year to stimulate the recovery. After RBNZ surprise hold in Q419, NZD was able to sustain a strong bid. After AUD unemployment came in better than expected, smart money is tracking for the same course of action from RBA and AUD. The shape of the Long-term Macro chart: The housing market continues to rise with a lack of supply entering into expectation plays by 2021 via declining vacancies and higher rental prices. The low rates will act as a catalyst for price growth. On the Corporate side , with PBoC using AUD to arbitrage the trade war business investment will continue to pick up in 2020. Scott Morrison will keep public infrastructure at high levels, while the weaker AUD in 2019 will continue to help exports. Unemployment has shown signs of improving, spare capacity will last till end 2021 and keep inflation via wages benign. This is supportive of RBA remaining on hold and here betting on no further easing as long as macro conditions show signs of improvement and stability. Dollar bear case: Australia / New Zealand: Forecast summary We can continue to update this thread over the coming Weeks, Months and Quarters so feel free to jump in with your idea generation to further the discussion for all. Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc!!
Long
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | AUD Macro Map 2020Lets get started... On the macro side, RBA expected to cut once more in Feb to 0.5% and the rate cycle is already over. If data continues to improve and follow the solid unemployment prints we saw last week, then they will have missed the boat to cut once more as income tax cut later in the year. This will be enough to keep AUD in bid over 2020 and 2021 with a clean zig zag trading-wise. A quick update to the Macro Chartbook : PBOC Floor via China arbitrage : On the USD side: Commodity currencies are equally sensitive to global risk sentiment flows. NZD coughed and struggled to take back 0.63x however with RBNZ Nov cuts overpriced and extended I like entering NZD$ longs at market with a 0.618x stop. The same flows are in play for AUD; looking for the 0.6725 support to hold with all eyes on the employment print. On the technical side for AUDUSD, we have traded many entries and additional loading opportunities live here on Tradingview. For those following the flows so far: Rally set to continue in the New Year : I will continue to update this thread over the coming Weeks, Months and Quarters so feel free to jump in with your idea generation and we can further the discussion for all. Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc!
Long
by ridethepig
2
Rejected Bears and Low VolatilityJust as expected, Australian investors are crying foul on the low-interest rate policy adopted by my least favorite reserve bank leader, Lowe Phillips. He is utilizing the same policy that lead the ECB into a never-ending bear market. When there is uncertainty in the global economy and you are not one of the "majors" then don't throw oil on the fire by creating an atmosphere that makes global & local investors more fearful of your future. Australia has a great economy, one just needs to look at their BOP (Balance of Payment). Despite all the fear, the exchange rate has become "sticky" and currently rejecting a further fall. We just need progress in the trade deal to start a bull market and with commodities almost back in season it might be impressive. Disclaimer: I am not your financial advisor.
Long
by TogamiTrader
1
ridethepig | Looking at AUDNZD from 40,000ftOn the AUD side, RBA crystal clear about conditions needed for further easing and unlikely in the near-term. Unemployment overshooting may be the start of a round of good data for AUD which will keep the RBA on hold meaning markets will need to price out all of those betting on a RBA Feb rate cut. On the NZD side, RBNZ slightly hawkish surprise in the last meeting and see a lot of NZD shorts left that that need unwinding. Although into year-end NZD also spiking higher but rather than from good data it was with a positional squeeze into 0.66xx before running out of steam. With that in mind I see both AUD and NZD as bullish vs USD but AUD has more room to outperform if data holds: A “ Royal Flush ” for us and the Commodity Currencies. As widely mentioned yesterday, stronger AUD employment data sending AUDUSD flying towards the 0.69xx handle: I am looking to close longs at 0.695x which is still the same level in play from the larger swing into year-end: For those holding since October when we loaded the breakup we will have to wait till 2020 to clear final targets: For the AUD macro map: For the NZD macro map: As usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, questions and etc! Feel free to jump into the conversations in the comments with your views/charts. If we get enough interest we will have a round of Fixed Income chart updates coming for AU and NZ.
Long
by ridethepig
5