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RBA

AUDUSD: Monthly range expansions show sellers get trapped higherLooking at monthly ranges, we see that months with sharp selloffs, that surpass the previous true range, as measured from the open to the low, have been causing sellers to get trapped at increasingly higher prices. This is bullish and shows accumulation, and shakeouts taking place. The monthly chart shows a mode near the highs, and now we're testing support at the bottom of the monthly range, so we have a great opportunity on the long side, after the market got extremely one sided. Sellers might get trapped here again, this time higher than the previous range expansion months, which is bullish overall. Daily and weekly RgMov readings are bullish, and we have massive lag relative to copper and iron ore, which eventually will play out, so I remain bullish. The entry to add to longs is described in my 4h chart, see related ideas for more information. Keep these levels in mind, once above, they act as support on a retest. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
3
AUDUSD enters former support zoneThe Aussie broke through long term channel support in mid-November; falling nearly 300 pips in 3 days, before finding support above 73. Pair has since retraced approximately 61.8% of the decline from 7580 and is testing the .7440 - 75 former support zone. We are looking for a turn lower from here and an eventual break below the 5 month low at 7285. Alternatively; a break above 75 would target the next former support zone at 7555 - 7610, butwe expect any gains to remain capped below there.
Short
by MFXSCharts
AUDCAD: Trend Reversal?Talking Point: Technical Strategy: Confirming it's bearish outlook Elliottwave View : Confirming completion of wave (C) of c Analysis AUDCAD was trading sideway from Aug-2013. We were seen May-2015 a declined again but unable to takeout Aug-2013 low in impulse manner. We were experienced a bounce from 9170 area in May-2015. However, upside was corrective and can be counted as flat correction in elliott-wave and possibly correction is over on 1.04 zone. With that in mind, we are expecting trend reversal should be taking place and can be seen impulsive declined from 1.04 and possibly we had it's first leg down from 1.04 to 0.9864. Ongoing upward momentum can be wave 2 / wave B. Action We are having level planned to short this pair with limited risk and having maximum rewards. -- By @Hoagtrding (Hoagtrading.com)
by Hoag
0.75 key price zone to monitor this week Last week AUDUSD was rejected again from the 0.77-0.78 daily resistance zone which is also the PRZ of a bearish Gartley (pink). The difference between this time and the previous times it was rejected from this price zone is that now AUDUSD sell off drove it below 2 MA lines and the bottom of a trading channel - Bearish sign Now 0.75 will be tested as support. 1) The 200 days MA line and the structure can drive AUDUSD higher for a short term pullback (or bullish continuation wave). 2) AUDUSD will break below 0.75 and continue towards the next support zone and the secondary target zone of the Gartley - 0.735. Read more about this scenario and others in this week's newsletters (link in bio)
by themarketzone
NZDUSD: Potential turning pointNZDUSD is at a good support zone, and could turn up from here, following gold, which is very oversold. I'm waiting to enter long here, I'd like to see how today's bar acts, to buy into strength going forward. You shouldn't rush into gold or NZDUSD longs right away, but, should monitor how today behaves first. The negative news surrounding New Zealand serve as an extra ingredient, to give us enough bearish sentiment for a bottom in here: www.bloomberg.com Live cattle and milk futures remain bullish, and gold might be about to bottom after stopping out longs and making perma-bulls give up, hopefully, very soon. If you want to learn more about the trade entry, and risk management, contact me via pm. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
4
AUDNZD November Month Technical: Can RBNZ make wave 3 move?Talking Points: AUDNZD Technical Strategy: Re-initiating Long position Elliottwave Count: Reversal is in process after wave 2 completion Analysis AUDNZD is expecting to complete it's wave 2 correction @ 1.0350 after having an high over 1.0726. We were seen corrective move towards 1.0350 in expanded flat correction. We also had a nice bounce from channel support and horizontal support from 1.0350 levels. We are considering it's reversal trend and able to count five wave upwards move in lower time frame. Considering that analysis, we are targeting wave (iii) in coming months which can atleast target above 1.0726. Action We are re-initiating a long position again after had a handsome profit on long from Sept month at level 1.0337. We also defined entry, exit and stoploss criteria in trade signal section.
Long
by Hoag
Austrian Traded Index Analysis: Triangle scenario played well, nTalking Points: Austrian Traded Index (ATX) Technical Strategy : Hold until Triangle breakout Elliottwave Count : Triangle Analysis ATX (Austrian Traded Index) is in wave (B) which is in triangle formation. We are in last phase of triangle (wave e). We possibly see last pull leg up or in alternate scenario, we possibly see downtrend from current level. We might mark this move as confirmed after 2092 level breakout which is drawn from wave (c) to wave (d). Each leg of triangle retraced 76.4% of fibbo, with same analogy we can target wave (e) to 2502.26 or at-least 2390 (already reached 2390). Action We are bullish on AUD basket in short term and same time we need to put caution on every AUD pairs. As those pairs are on bearish view for longer time frame. Once ATX confirm it's triangle breakout, we can expect impulse bear move on AUD pairs. -- By @Hoagtrading (Hoagtrading.com)
AShort
by Hoag
AUDUSD: UpdateIn my previous publication I had signaled a good spot to go long AUDUSD, based on the support level that was tested, after breaking out of a linear regression channel, and landing on a VIX generated support zone. Commercial traders have been a reliable source of information so far, and you can read my analysis on the subject in the previous post. I have part of my position still running, and I'm looking to take short term trades on the way up. For now, AUDUSD has broken above all resistance levels, except for the top of the Brexit range. Ideally, we need tomorrow's bar to stay above this level on close, confirming the breakout of the range, and then proceeding to rally above the next level, the top of the first rate cut date's range, which triggered a massive decline in the Aussie back in May. I'll add the short term view in the comments below. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
AUDNZD: Looking for long opportunityTalking Point: Technical Strategy: Turning Bullish Elliottwave View: Possibly flat correction over. Analysis We were bullish on AUDNZD since Sept month and booked handsome profit on reversal 1.0340. We now looking to re-initiate long position on confirmation. Current pricing structure suggesting a flat correction near previous wave 4 region. This region provide target zone for wave 1 after reversal. As current price is trading in a channel, we are seeking for few confirmation to mark this as a flat correction and initiating long position with defined stoploss. Action Looking for long opportunity for targeting above 1.0910 -- By @Hoagtrading (Hoagtrading.com)
Long
by Hoag
AUDUSD: Add to long term longs, nice short term opportunityAUDUSD has a very bullish long term, intermediate term, and short term chart. We can add to our core positions, if we make a new daily high. We can also take a short term trade once that happens, with a tight stop at the previous daily bar's close. Target is roughly 0.77 for the short term position, and over 0.8350 for the long term entries. Long term positions were entered earlier, and recently averaged at lower levels, refer to my previous publications. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
AUDUSD: Huge breakout, similar to copper and iron oreWe have a potential breakout of considerable scale in the Aussie dollar chart. I'd highly reccomend entering longs if not in, you can risk either 3 times the daily ATR for the long term, or use Friday's low as your stop, more aggressively. The target is the 0.8350 handle, to be confirmed after the bi-weekly time at mode signal on chart confirms. For now, it's not yet confirmed, but highly likely, so we can get in early on. I'm adding a shorter term entry here, on a break of Friday's high, with stops under Friday's low, to complement my longer term position in this pair. Check out my copper forecast in the related ideas, as well as the oil an commodity index charts. We're in the brink of a massive move, that if confirmed, can be ridiculously profitable for all of us if it pans out like I expect it to. This also ties nicely with China's inclusion in the SDR basket today, OPEC's deal, fears of Deutsche Bank's failure dissipated, and Australia's fundamentals overall. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
13
AUDUSD: RBA key levels analysisAUDUSD gives us plenty of clues whenever we record the key levels after major monetary policy changes or simply news related to the RBA. If we check these levels, also paying attention to levels generated from international events, like Fed news, or events like Brexit, we can get a clear picture of what is more likely to happen and what price has to do to sustain a bearish or bullish bias. If you have any questions let me know. For now, we're long, you can refer to my previous publication. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
AUDUSD: Key Hidden Levels and Linear regression analysisAUDUSD found support at the upper deviation of the recent downtrend's linear regression channel today. This level coincides with the mid point of the recent VIX 75% retracement, or 'smart money buying spree' key level, which happens after VIX spikes by 5 points or more, and the smart money 'buys the dip' in risk assets, making VIX retrace 75% of its recent climb, reducing option volatility, calming the market and putting a floor below the recent sell off lows. This range, gives 3 levels to monitor on retest, and that's what we have here. Let's see if bulls step in and drive price above resistance, else, the downtrend in AUDUSD will resume. We can enter longs here, or on a new daily high to be more conservative, risking a new daily low. Keep risk at 1% or less. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
1
FX portfolio: Long AUDUSD on a breakout of last session's highWe have a nice setup in AUDUSD, although of lower probability than the others I posted today, since the longer term trend signals on chart aren't confirmed yet. Interestingly, price bottomed at the June 24th's session low...rings a bell? We can extrapolate the signals from commodities, to the ones in FX pairs, and take the daily chart signals as an excuse to join this potential massive trades yet to be confirmed. Keep risk below 2% if you take it. After the daily oscillators get overbought, we can trim the position, trail stops, or simply exit. But, since we speculate on this eventually confirming a higher timeframe uptrend signal, we'll only close half the position on a new daily low after CCI goes above +100, and trail stops to entry on the rest of the position. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
5