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AUD/USD Upside Favored by Monetary Policy DeferentialAUD/USD upside bias is supported by the monetary policy differential and the technicals. The Australian central bank stayed on the sidelines on Tuesday, but once again considered the case for a hike and does not shut the door to such action. The US Fed on the other hand has already pointed to lower rates and markets expect two cuts within the year. The Aussie benefited from RBA’s hawkish hold and after defending again the pivotal 38.2% Fibonacci of the last leg up, it returned above the EMA200 (black line). This reaffirms the bullish tilt and strengthens prospects of new higher highs (0.6714), but does not inspire confidence for tackling 0.6839. On the other hand, AUD/USD has faltered above 0.6700 multiple times, creating scope for a pullback and a retest of the 38.2% Fibonacci and the daily Ichimoku Cloud. This would bring 0.6465 in the spotlight, but strong catalyst would be needed for testing it. Markets may be optimistic about two Fed cuts, but officials see just one and their reluctance to pivot supports the greenback. The RBA keeps the door open to a hike, but there is a high bar for such action, while deteriorating economy could increase pressure for easier stance. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
Long
by FXCM
BofA sees Aussie dollar outperforming Bank of America anticipates diverging monetary policy paths between the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Swiss National Bank (SNB) after their respective June meetings, with the RBA seen as one of the last major central banks to cut interest rates. The Wall Street bank's view was reinforced by robust Australian labor market data, suggesting potential for the RBA to maintain higher rates for longer. "An unambiguously strong jobs report has further strengthened our conviction in higher-for-longer trades," said Adarsh Sinha, a strategist at Bank of America. Australian employment jumped by 39,700 in May, beating forecasts of 30,000, driven by full-time hiring as unemployment fell, official data showed. "We see this as a good entry point for adding higher-for-longer trades, including our recommendation to buy carry-rich AUD/CHF," Sinha added. Earlier this year, Sinha made similar calls favoring the Australian dollar on expectations the RBA would lag peers in lowering rates. He cited other factors supporting potential Aussie outperformance in 2024, including a less restrictive RBA policy rate versus other economies, bearish China sentiment subsiding, and Australia's solid fiscal position. Elias Haddad, senior markets strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman, said he expected the Aussie to gain ground versus the Canadian dollar too, as the RBA is in no rush to cut rates unlike the Bank of Canada.
by BlackBull_Markets
Looking forward to the RBA decision on TuesdayWatch out for the RBA interest rate decision, which is coming out on Tuesday. Strong moves in AUD are possible. #AUDUSD EASYMARKETS:AUDUSD Disclaimer: easyMarkets Account on TradingView allows you to combine easyMarkets industry leading conditions, regulated trading and tight fixed spreads with TradingView's powerful social network for traders, advanced charting and analytics. Access no slippage on limit orders, tight fixed spreads, negative balance protection, no hidden fees or commission, and seamless integration. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
by easyMarkets
RBA decision: Will the Aussie Dollar break out? RBA decision: Will the Aussie Dollar break out? A potentially interesting week awaits the Aussie dollar, with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) expected to hold its interest rate unchanged. Money markets price around a 97% chance for rates to remain at the current level and only a 3% probability of a 25-basis point cut. Last week, ANZ became the first of the big four banks to push their prediction of a RBA interest rate cut into 2025. The bank now expects the first RBA cash rate reduction to come in February. Before this shift, ANZ was aligned with CBA, NAB, and Westpac in forecasting a cut this November. A look at Aussie price action shows AUD/USD trading within a very mild descending channel formation or a range between 0.6577 and 0.6690. A decisive break above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) before breaking 0.6709 could indicate an extension higher to a target at 0.6713. A decisive break below the range floor could indicate a follow-through to at least 0.6556.
by BlackBull_Markets
AUD/USD slides on weak Australian data, GDP nextThe Australian dollar continues to swing sharply this week. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6641 in the North American session, down 0.71% on the day. The downswing has wiped out the Aussie’s gains of 0.55% on Monday. Australia posted weak data earlier today, which has weighed on the Australian dollar. Corporate profits declined 2.5% q/q in the first quarter after revised growth of 7.1% in the fourth quarter. This was well short of the market estimate of -0.9%. On an annualized basis, corporate profits plunged 8.6%, marking a fourth straight quarter of contraction. Australia also posted a current account deficit of AUD 4.9 billion in the first quarter, after a revised surplus of AUD 2.7 billion in Q4 2023. This missed the market estimate of a surplus of AUD 5.9 billion. The trade surplus fell as imports rose and exports declined, as metal ore prices fell. Today’s silver lining was an improvement in retail sales, which rebounded with a small gain of 0.1% m/m in April, after a -0.4% reading in March Australia’s GDP is expected to fall to 1.2% y/y in the fourth quarter, compared to 1.5% in the fourth quarter of 2023. GDP is expected to show weak growth of 0.2% q/q in the first quarter, unchanged from Q4 2023. Consumer spending has been soft as consumers grapple with high interest rates and stubborn inflation. The March GDP data is expected to indicate that Australia narrowly avoided a recession. Normally, such an economic landscape would likely result in the Reserve Bank of Australia lowering rates in order to kick-start the limping economy. However, with inflation stickier than anticipated, the RBA is likely to wait before easing up on interest rates and hasn’t ruled out rate hikes in order to keep a lid on inflation. The RBA meets next on June 18th. AUD/USD is testing support at 0.6641. Below, there is support at 0.6603 0.6692 and 0.6730 are the next resistance lines
by fisherkj4
AUD/USD rises after retail sales tick higherThe Australian dollar has edged higher on Tuesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6667, up 0.25% on the day at the time of writing. Australia’s retail sales rise 0.1%, CPI next Australian consumers remain frugal and cautious, as retail sales rose just 0.1% m/m April. This was a rebound from the 0.4% decline in March and beat the market estimate of 0.2%. On a yearly basis, retail sales rose 1.3%, compared to 0.9% in March. Retail activity has been flat and that could prod the Reserve Bank of Australia to lower interest rates later this year. The RBA has held the cash rate at 4.35% for four straight times and the markets are anticipating that the next move will be a cut. However, the RBA has sounded hawkish and the RBA minutes of the May 7th meeting indicated that policy makers discussed a rate hike at the May 7th meeting. This was due to concerns that inflation, particularly services prices has been stickier than expected and that the path to the RBA’s 2-3% target will not be smooth. Australia releases April CPI early on Wednesday, which is expected to tick lower to 3.4% y/y, down from 3.5% in March. Fed members continue to send out a hawkish message about rate policy. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said on Tuesday that he would want to see “many more months of positive inflation data” before the Fed lowers rates, adding that a rate hike should not be ruled out. Kashakri said earlier this month that rates need to stay in restrictive territory for “an extended period”. The markets are more dovish and have priced in a rate cut at 52%, according to the CME’s FedWatch. AUD/USD Technical 0.6643 is a weak support level. Below, there is support at 0.6578 0.6695 and 0.6760 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
Policy Divergence: BoC and RBNZ Take Opposing PathsGreetings Traders, In today's trading session, our focus is on NZDCAD, where we see a promising buying opportunity emerging around the 0.83500 zone. NZDCAD has been traversing a downtrend but is currently undergoing a correction phase, drawing nearer to the retrace area near the 0.83500 support and resistance zone. Adding depth to our analysis, recent fundamental developments are worth noting. Just yesterday, the Canadian CPI figures came in softer than anticipated. Meanwhile, during the night, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) issued some notably hawkish guidance. This sets an interesting stage: while the Bank of Canada (BoC) is poised to initiate rate cuts come June, the RBNZ appears to be steering clear of such measures for the time being. This subtle policy divergence introduces a compelling dynamic that suggests NZDCAD may continue its upward trajectory. In summary, the confluence of technical retracement and fundamental policy disparities presents an opportune moment for traders to consider a bullish stance on NZDCAD.
Long
by JoeChampion
Australian dollar eyes RBA minutesThe Australian dollar is unchanged at the time of writing, trading at 0.6692 in the European session. There are no economic releases out of the US or Australia today, which should translate into a quiet day for AUD/USD. The Aussie is coming off an excellent week, gaining 1.36% and hitting its highest level since January. In the month of May, AUD/USD has surged 3.4%. Tuesday will be busier, with the Reserve Bank of Australia releasing the minutes of the policy meeting earlier this month. At that meeting, there were no surprises as the RBA held the cash rate at 4.35% for a fourth straight time. Notably, the central bank discussed the possibility of a rate hike at the meeting, which was not the case at the March meeting. This was likely a response to first-quarter CPI, which was slightly higher than expected. CPI fell from 4.1% to 3.6%, missing the forecast of 3.5%. Service inflation remains sticky, which means that CPI is expected to continue to ease, but slowly. RBA policy makers are concerned that the path to the 2% inflation target will be bumpy and are hesitant to start lowering rates until they see evidence of sustainable price stability. The fact that a rate hike is on the table, albeit an unlikely scenario, indicates that the RBA remains cautious and somewhat hawkish, and a rate cut will have to wait until inflation shows a substantial decline. Australia will also release Westpac Consumer Sentiment on Tuesday. The index has declined two straight times and remains in negative territory as consumers remain surly about high interest rates and the high cost of living. The May release is expected to show an improvement, with a market estimate of a 0.9% gain. AUD/USD has support at 0.6681 and 0.6662 0.6714 and 0.6733 are the next resistance lines
LSE:CPI
by OANDA
AUD/USD gains ground ahead of wage growthThe Australian dollar has posted gains on Tuesday. AUD/USD is up 0.19%, trading at 0.6620 in the North American session at the time of writing. Australia’s wage growth for the first quarter is expected to remain unchanged. Wages rose 4.2% in the fourth quarter of 2023, the highest since 2009, with most categories showing increases. On a quarterly basis, wage prices rose 1.9%, which was the lowest gain in three quarters. If the release is not within expectations, we could see a reaction from the Australian dollar. Is the Reserve Bank of Australia considering a rate cut? The central bank hasn’t shown any rush to shift policy and held rates at 4.35% for a fourth straight time at last week’s meeting. The RBA has stressed that rate policy will be data-dependent and has made the battle against inflation its top priority. A rate cut isn’t coming until inflation falls and the RBA doesn’t expect inflation to fall within the target range of 2-3% before 2025. Inflation has come down to 3.6% but the last phase of getting inflation within target could be the most difficult part, as the Federal Reserve has discovered. Unless inflation surprises with a sharp drop in the coming months, a rate cut is unlikely before November or early 2025. Federal Reserve Chair Powell speaks at an event in Amsterdam later today and the markets will be looking for hints regarding a rate cut. The Fed has delayed plans to cut rates as the US economy remains resilient and inflation has unexpectedly accelerated. The US releases April inflation data this week and a drop in inflation would increase the likelihood of a rate cut in September. The US releases PPI is expected to remain unchanged at 2.4% in April while CPI is projected to ease to 3.6%, down from 3.8% in April. AUD/USD tested support at 0.6602 earlier. Below, there is support at 0.6559 0.6645 and 0.6688 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
AUD/USD hits one-month high, RBA decision nextThe Australian dollar has started the week with modest gains. AUD/USD is up 0.25%, trading at 0.6624 in the European session at the time of writing. The Aussie is coming off a strong week, having gained 1.19%. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on Tuesday and is widely expected to hold the cash rate at 4.35%, a 12-year high. The central bank has maintained rates three straight times and there is a strong likelihood that the rate statement will be hawkish, as inflation in the first quarter dropped from 4.1% to 3.6% but was above the market estimate of 3.4%. Inflation has come down significantly but remains sticky as the RBA tries to bring it back down to the 2%-3% target range. The RBA is making its rate decisions based on the data and that has the markets guessing as to what the rate path will look like. A rate cut isn’t coming until inflation falls and the RBA doesn’t expect inflation to fall within the target range before 2025. If inflation resumes its downward path in the next few months we could see a rate cut in November but at the same time, the risk of a rate hike has increased since the Q1 inflation report. As well, the job market has been tighter than anticipated, which makes it more difficult to lower rates. The RBA was very late in starting its rate-tightening cycle and policy makers will be very hesitant to lower rates until they are confident that inflation won’t rebound. US nonfarm payrolls eased to 175,000 in April, well below the market estimate of 240,000. The unemployment rate rose from 3.8% to 3.9%, above the forecast of 3.8%. Wage growth rose 0.2% m/m, lower than the 0.3% gain in March and shy of the market estimate of 0.2%. We haven’t seen all three components of the employment report miss their estimates for quite some time, which could point to cracks in the US labor market. AUD/USD tested support at 0.6606 earlier. Below, there is support at 0.6564 0.6651 and 0.6693 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
AU to Dec. 2023 Levels?!Here I have AUD/USD on the Daily Chart! Since the Low in April, Price for AU has been on a Bullish Run! I believe the Resistance Level it has been struggling with all year may be coming to BREAK soon!! On the tail of LOWER than expected NFP numbers for USD last week AND word that the RBA may be needing to look to INCREASE INTEREST RATES .. We could see MUCH more bullishness from AU SO much in fact that I think the Highs of Dec. 2023 may be in sights! I am currently waiting for: Price to fall Lower to a Minor Level of Support to enter a Buy Position -OR- Price to Break the Resistance Zone @ ( .6640 - .6612 ) and then to Retest Break for Buy Position
Long
by Novi_Fibonacci
RBA striving for making a come back. Restaurant Brands Asia Limited was originally incorporated as Burger King India Private Limited on November 11, 2013 at Mumbai. Subsequently, the Company converted into a Public Limited Company and name of the Company was changed to Burger King India Limited on September 25, 2019. Thereafter, name of the Company was changed from "Burger King India Limited" to "Restaurant Brands Asia Limited". The Company is engaged in the business of Quick Service Restaurants under the brand name of "Burger King" and is presently a subsidiary of QSR Asia Pte.Ltd. The Burger King brand is the second largest fast food burger brand globally as measured by the total number of restaurants, with a global network of over 18,000 restaurants in more than 100 countries. CMP of the stock is Rs. 105.10. The Negative aspects of the company are Companies not able to generate net cash, MFs decreased their shareholding last quarter and High Interest Payments Compared to Earnings. The company's Positive aspects are Stock with Low PE (PE < = 10), Highest FII stock holdings, Company with Zero Promoter Pledge and Company with Low Debt. Entry can be taken after closing above 107. compounding can be done after closing above 111. Targets in the stock will be 118 and 123. The long-term target in the stock will be 129 and 134. Stop loss in the stock should be maintained at Closing below 95. The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
NSE:RBALong
by Happy_Candles_Investment
AUD/USD extends gains as inflation higher than expectedThe Australian dollar has edged higher on Wednesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6504, up 0.27%. The Australian dollar rose as high as 0.6529 (0.64%) after the Australian inflation release but has pared about half of those gains. Australia’s inflation rate slowed less than expected in the first quarter. Inflation rose 3.6% y/y in Q1, down sharply from 4.1% in the fourth quarter but above the market estimate of 3.4%. This was the lowest rate since Q4 2024 and the drop was widespread across most components of inflation. Inflation accelerated in March on a quarterly basis (0.6% to 1%) and monthly (3.4% to 3.5%), as services inflation remains sticky. A key core inflation indicator, the trimmed mean, accelerated to 1% q/q, above the market estimate of 0.8%. Annually, the trimmed mean slowed to 4%, down from 4.2%. The inflation numbers were higher than what the market was expecting and the Reserve Bank of Australia will be concerned, in particular with the 1% rise in the trimmed mean. The markets pared the probability of a rate cut in May to 3% after the inflation report and have not fully priced a quarter-point drop until February 2025. The RBA is likely done with its rate-tightening cycle, which has boosted the cash rate to 4.25%, but has paused three straight times. The central bank has shown it can be patient and is unlikely to lower rates until underlying inflation eases and the tight labor market shows signs of cracks. AUD/USD tested support at 0.6487 earlier. Below, there is support at 0.6424 0.6555 and 0.6618 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
The Aussie is Vulnerable Despite its BounceAUD/USD rises after its 2024 lows as the greenback’s strength deflates, eying the pivotal EMA200 and daily closes above it would shift bias to the upside. However, such outcome has high degree of difficulty technically. The EMA200 can contain the rebound and sustain the bearish bias, which would keep the Aussie exposed to the 2023 lows (0.6269). The hawkish repricing around the Fed is likely to continue to help for the USDollar, as stubborn inflation, strong economy and robust labor market favor a conservative approach around rate cuts by the Fed. Its Australian counterpart seems to be further from such moves at this stage, but today’s poor labor data strengthen the case for an RBA pivot. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
Short
by FXCM
AUD/USD steadies ahead of employment dataThe Australian dollar has stabilized on Wednesday, after a 2.2% decline over the past three days. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.62254, up 0.37% but remains close to five-month lows. Australia’s employment is expected to post a small gain of 7,200 in March after a blowout gain of 116,500 in February. The unemployment rate is expected to bump up to 3.9% after falling from 4.1% to 3.7% in February. The stunning February jobs report made the Reserve Bank of Australia look good, as it paused rates (rather than cut) just two days earlier at its policy meeting. If the March data shows that the February release was a one-time blip and that the labor market is indeed cooling down, expectations for a rate cut will increase. The RBA has held the cash rate at 4.35% for three straight times and meets next on May 7. The RBA will be monitoring key data ahead of the meeting and next week’s CPI release for the first quarter will be a key factor in the rate decision. Inflation has been moving lower but still remains above the target range of 2-3%. In February, headline CPI was unchanged at 3.4% while core inflation dropped from 4.1% to 3.9%. In the US, the Federal Reserve is dealing with a robust US economy and rising inflation. This is complicating the battle with inflation and prompted Fed Chair Powell to deliver a blunt message on Tuesday. Powell said that the Fed would wait longer than previously expected to lower rates as a result of higher than expected inflation reports. This warning led the markets to pare the odds of rate cut expectations, raising the possibility that the Fed might forgo rate cuts until 2025. AUD/USD tested resistance at 0.6437 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 0.6472 0.6413 and 0.6378 are the next support levels
by OANDA
AUDUSD: Bearish Triangle Pointing Lower, Dovish RBA? During the overnight Asian session, there was a release of Australian CPI data, indicating that inflation remains stable at 3.4%, which is slightly below the expected 3.5%. Consequently, we can anticipate that this news could potentially drive the Aussie lower on maybe dovish RBA, who may try to follow other dovish CBs. From an Elliott wave perspective, we are tracking bearish pattern; its an A-B-C-D-E, possibly in already late stages. However, the ideal resistance for a wave E could still be a bit higher, around 0.6580 or so. Nevertheless, if we witness a break below 0.65, I believe that the decline could immediately resume toward the lows seen in March. Grega
Short
by ew-forecast
Aussie H4 | Could see a hawkish RBA today?The Aussie (AUD/USD) could rise towards a potential breakout level and climb higher from here should we see a hawkish monetary policy statement at 3:30 am GMT as well as a hawkish press conference by RBA Governor Michele Bullock at 4:30 am GMT. Buy entry is at 0.65826 which is a potential breakout level. Stop loss is at 0.65220 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Take profit is at 0.67120 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by FXCM
Aussie calm ahead of RBA decisionThe Australian dollar is showing little movement on Monday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6655, down 0.07%. The Reserve Bank of Australia wraps up a two-day meeting on Tuesday and is widely expected to maintain the cash rate at 4.35%. The RBA last raised rates in November 2023 and rates have likely peaked. There isn’t much suspense ahead of tomorrow’s meeting Economic growth has been hampered by elevated interest rates and the unemployment rate has been moving higher. This essentially precludes a rate hike. As for a cut in rates, the RBA is not in any rush, as inflation is falling but the current clip of 4.1%, it is more than double the 2% target. The RBA hasn’t signaled it is planning to cut rates and has maintained a rate hike bias, although barring a jump in inflation, it’s very unlikely that we’ll see another rate hike. The markets are looking at an initial rate cut sometime this year. Investors will be looking for hints at the meeting about future rate policy and the rate statement and Governor Bullock’s press conference could provide some insights. Any signals of a removal of its tightening bias could send the Australian dollar lower. China, Australia’s largest trading partner, started the week with mixed data. Industrial production sparked with a gain of 7% y/y in January-February combined, its highest level in two years. This followed a 6.8% gain in December and easily beat the market forecast of 5%. Retail sales eased to 5.5% y/y in January-February, down from 7.4% in December but above the market estimate of 5.2%. There is resistance at 0.6584 and 0.6615 0.6528 and 0.6497 are providing support
by OANDA
Analysis of RBA, BOJ, FOMC, SNB, BOE and the week aheadWeek of the 18th March (H4) DXY: Stay below 50% (103.70) to maintain bearish view, could trade down to 102.40 support NZDUSD: Buy 0.61 SL 30 TP 100 AUDUSD: Buy 0.6580 SL 40 TP 80 (Tuesday: RBA Decision) USDJPY: Riskier: Sell 148.50 SL 80 TP 200 (Tuesday: BOJ Policy Decision) GBPUSD: Buy 1.2760 SL 50 TP 100 (Thursday:BOE Voting) EURUSD: Sell 1.0860 SL 30 TP 60 (If DXY strengthens) USDCHF: Sell 0.8860 SL 35 TP 105 (Thursday: SNB decision) USDCAD: Buy 1.3455 SL 30 TP 13 (Tuesday: CPI data) Gold: Bounce off 2150 to retest high of 2200
TVC:DXYShort
by JinDao_Tai
Aussie edges higher despite business confidence declineThe Australian dollar remains close to the 0.66 line, where it has been for most of the week. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6620, up 0.21%. The business sector is not feeling very confident about the near-term outlook of the Australian economy. The NAB Business Confidence index dipped to zero in February, down from one in January but above the forecast of -1. The NAB report noted that retail confidence remains deeply negative. There was better news from the NAB Business Conditions index, which rose to 10 in February, up from 7 in January. By industry, manufacturing showed improvement but retail and construction weakened. Australia’s economy has been limping along and consumers are still feeling the squeeze of the cost-of-living crisis and high mortgage payments as the Reserve Bank of Australia is yet to lower elevated interest rate levels. The RBA has raised rates only once since June 2023 and hasn’t ruled out rate hikes, although the markets have priced in rate cuts for later this year. The RBA is unlikely to consider lowering rates until inflation falls lower. In January, CPI rose 3.4% y/y, still well above the RBA’s target band of 2-3%. The next meeting is on March 18th and the RBA is widely expected to maintain the cash rate of 4.35%. Thursday will be busy in the US, with the release of retail sales, the producer price index and unemployment claims. Retail sales is often a market-mover and will be closely watched. The markets are expecting a strong rebound in February, with an estimate of 0.8% m/m. This follows a 0.8% decline in January, which was a 10-month low. There is resistance at 0.6702 and 0.6780 0.6590 and 0.6512 are providing support
by OANDA
1
AUD/USD surges despite soft GDP dataThe Australian dollar has posted strong gains on Wednesday despite a weak GDP report today. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6562, up 0.90%. Australia’s economy ended 2023 on whimper rather than a gain, as GDP rose just 0.2% q/q the fourth quarter. This was lower than the 0.3% gain in the third quarter and missed the market estimate which was also 0.3%. The economy has been limping along and the Q4 release marked the weakest quarterly growth in five quarters. On an annual basis, GDP rose 1.5%, just above the market estimate of 1.4%. On the positive side, exports were up and imports fell, and household spending showed a small gain of 0.1%. Consumers are still being squeezed by the cost-of-living crisis and high mortgage payments as the Reserve Bank of Australia is yet to lower elevated interest rate levels. The RBA has raised rates only once since June 2023 and hasn’t ruled out rate hikes, although the markets believe that rates have peaked and have priced in rate cuts later this year. The RBA is unlikely to consider lowering rates until inflation falls lower. In January, CPI rose 3.4% y/y, still well above the RBA’s target band of 2-3%. The next meeting is on March 18th and the RBA is widely expected to maintain rates. In the US, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testifies before the Senate Banking Committee later today. Powell is expected to reiterate that inflation is moving lower but needs to come down further before the Fed will feel comfortable in lowering rates. The Fed’s consistent message of patience and caution appears to have been internalized by the markets, which are now in line with the Fed and have priced in three rate cuts this year. In January, investors had expected up to six cuts, but a stronger-than-expected US economy and a hawkish Fed have dampened the markets’ rate cut expectations. AUD/USD has pushed past resistance at 0.6527 and is testing resistance at 0.6566 0.6486 and 0.6447 are providing support
by OANDA