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RBA

EURAUD: Ideal opportunity for a pair tradeAfter seeing The Working Trader's idea I figured I could attemp a pair trade in this pair, to take advantage of the interest rate differential in both EURUSD short and AUDUSD long. The entry will be a market order, but I'd have to see how the markets open tomorrow, I will update the chart by then. For now, keep in mind that for pair trades, I aim to open a big position on each side, which thanks to the pair trade's more 'market neutral' stance, lets me use no stop loss and be somewhat safe, at least, as long as the ratio chart's setup is valid (in this case EURAUD). The advantages are multiple, check out The Working Trader's post in 'related ideas' for more information, I detailed it there. For now, if you want to enter this trade, find out the ADR value (atr of 1,5,10 and 20 bars added together and divided by 4). Once you know this you can calculate position size in base on your desired risk, per day. You will have to watch the trade, unless you're deep in profit, it won't be a set and forget deal. Good luck, and wait for the update regarding entry tomorrow. Target is initially the time at mode one, but it can retrace the whole terminal wedge (it should for it to be valid, and it has to occur in 1/3-1/4 the time it took to be formed). Cheers, Ivan.
Short
by IvanLabrie
11
Copper: offering clues for the Australian dollar tradersWatch this commodity, since it's very influential, showing a high positive correlation with the australian dollar. Right now I have a bullish weekly setup, aiming for the area depicted by the triangle, which happens to match two channels' resistance. Rgmov is advancing with price, and currently showing a 0.382 retracement after the recent bearish swing. Will this be a refresher before further upside? Should be constructive to keep this as reference when trading Australian dollar FX pairs. Good luck, Ivan.
FX:COPPER
by IvanLabrie
6
AUDUSD: Neutral but potentially due for a long tradeWe have interesting evidence, suggesting AUDUSD might be ready for a reversal from this level. The selloff has been intense, but price only completed a 0.786 retracement of the advance, which matches the daily mode that originated said uptrend. The downtrend generated a 4 bar target that has reached and exceeded the projected level, and is flashing a buy signal after doing so right on time, sending price back to a support area. Similarly to EURUSD, I'm changing my bias to cautiously bullish here, and will look for an entry long tomorrow before NY opens, based on tonight's developments. An early small position could be entered here but I'd rather take a confirmed setup off the 1h/4h and daily charts instead. Good luck! Ivan.
by IvanLabrie
23
GBPAUD: In depth time at mode analysisI spent a long time analyzing this pair, contrasting views with my colleague Nick Coulby, who specializes in Elliott Wave analysis, and working on my own time at mode analysis of this pair, as well as adding the result of insightful discussions held at Tim West's 'Key Hidden Levels' chatroom, regarding this topping pattern, as well as the patterns in the gold chart, and it's Elliott Wave analysis. All this rich information and length analytical process leads me to conclude the following: The uptrend isn't done, and while we see gold rallying, this pair will correct down offering a potentially interesting short setup, before lending us a perfect position trade on the long side if it meets my expectations. Ultimately the structure in gold is corrective, and the faith of the Aussie dollar's strength is connected to it, as well as to other dollar linked commodities (iron ore, copper), and subjected to stronger easing biases, vs those of the United Kingdom's BOE. In this regard, on the subject of fundamental analysis, we can see that the bias it favors is on the long side, but the timing for trading with it wouldn't position us favorably in this trade. I'll be looking for shorts as soon as gold starts rallying again, waiting for a retest of the top area, since I think we're seeing a corrective X wave flat pattern with limited downside. This will lead to new highs to complete the monthly uptrend signal target which will possibly form a new zigzag with a wedge C wave like we have observed before in this pair. This new wedge C wave will be the top of this formation offering an ideal short trade of larger implications, which is what I'm after. Conclusion is: If this model holds, and I think it's highly probable that it will, we will see a range bound situation, leading to a new high in a sharp advance, after which we will probably observe a terminal wedge pattern, which will be our cue for the interesting short setup, which should retrace the whole structure, and lead to a perfect long entry to rejoin the larger quarterly uptrend. I will continue to update this publication, since I think it has great potential and value, both as a journal, and as a testament of both Tradingview.com's and Tim West's 'time at mode' model's power. Good luck, Ivan.
Long
by IvanLabrie
41
GBPAUD: Doves vs Hawks pt.2I'm watching this pair closely, there's a time at mode downtrend currently active but the target was already reached. We have a lot of interesting news events today for both currencies which makes me think we will have an excellent opportunity on the long side here. I'll update with my suggested entry once I'm convinced enough. Longer term time at mode targets are still active and valid, so I think we will soon reach them based on both technicals and fundamental information. Cheers, Ivan.
Long
by IvanLabrie
13
AUDUSD: Time at mode updateOk, the correction seems complete, as many bright people pointed out. Now I'll try to get an entry short here. My last time at mode downtrend target has been reached ahead of time, which is typical behavior before a correction, so, the plan is to wait for said retracement to trigger a sell, probably by tomorrow morning, during the NY session. Initial target is a retest of the lower mode in the daily chart. Copper might correct now, so that should confirm my bias as well: I'll post updates when entering the trade.
Short
by IvanLabrie
3
AUDUSD: Quarterly and yearly signals and trading mapThe levels on chart are very significant, as evidenced by the price action around them, and how the trend signals targets and timing of said trends respects time at mode guidelines. I identified the end of a quarterly downtrend, in time, byJune 30th, which isn't far ahead, and a new quarterly downtrend signal that points to further declines in the long term, with completion dates by March 31st, 2016. I think this publication will aid in identifying the potential of lower timeframe signals, when contrasting it with the levels on chart, to gauge how far, and how fast price can move in the future. In the short term, I anticipate a surge in gold, and in the AUD and NZD pairs, while the crude oil correlated currencies cool down after strong uptrends, and also, while the dollar remains weak (which might extend for months if we continue at this rate). As for the yearly chart, there's a possibility that we confirm a yearly downtrend signal in the future, depending on how far the AUDUSD rallies and where does the yearly bar close. Cheers, Ivan.
by IvanLabrie
3
EURAUD: Potential time at mode uptrend confirms tomorrowBased on my lower timeframe analysis and the fact that rgmov has put on a new 2 month high despite price not making higher highs yet, I think this uptrend signal will be valid very soon. I'll enter long here, and let it run, it's worth the risk, even if it's a long shot. As an extra for my pitchfork enthusiast friends, there's a close past the trigger line of that PB fork...rather sleek. Remember to follow me at collective2.com to get live trading updates by email, auto-trading or signals for manual trading, as well as coaching. Link is in my profile. Good luck! Ivan.
Long
by IvanLabrie
1
AUDNZD: Time and price target for a reversalOk, some traders noticed this vertical advance and want to short it. I do too, but not for now. I'll wait for confirmation before going short, but it looks like a potentially very good trade. It's reassuring that we are at the start of a new quarter, and many trends will start to reverse, and many pairs will come out of consolidation patterns as money managers take profits to show results to their investors, and also, the Grexit drama rears its ugly head once again, during tonight's Asia/London session. I'm considering this trade, once the price in the daily and 4h charts confirm the entry. For now, keep a close watch to both time and price, since this zone is critical in my view. I'll update the chart with my entry. Good luck, Ivan.
Short
by IvanLabrie
19
GBPAUD: UpdateWell, it seems like GBPAUD decided to stop everyone and their mother out. In the chart I plotted a big monthly wedge/triangle every technical trader out there sees, which shows a clear fake breakout above, just an interesting thing to keep in mind, while the latest daily uptrend signal target got reached on the second day, way ahead of time. This fact makes me consider fading the advance, but after taking a hit I'm seriously doubting it. Are these feelings important? I think so, it's possible it will work now, after stopping everybody out, me included. As for the technical chart, the monthly target isn't far off, and we have a few days left in June, but I think it will turn into a failure and that GBPAUD will take a nose dive from here. I'm willing to take a new short this time with a stop above the monthly target and a monthly highest low level. If gold does turn up, and AUDUSD too, which I think will happen soon, possibly even today, then this pair will probably start to fall at last.
Short
by IvanLabrie
35
GBPAUD: Massive topping patternThe chart depicts a gloomy picture for this pair. It would seem as if the longterm uptrend is coming to an end and possibly falling sharply in the coming days, weeks and maybe months. I'm using the forecasted weekly uptrend top as a stop location, but we can also use 3 atr%, which would be a 1.2% stop to stay safely in this trade. I'll enter a small position now, and look to scale in along the way. Will also add a zoomed out daily chart to show the monthly signal and the bigger picture view with s/r levels and whatnot. What is specially attractive, other than the patterns and time at mode signals, is that today will be a very heavy news day for this pair, so I suspect we will see a VERY sharp move down take place after the NY close. Good luck, Ivan.
Short
by IvanLabrie
37
AUDCHF: Potential long trade on the daily and 4h chartsTime at mode analysis points to completion of a corrective move as price meets the profile balance point from the last high to mode distance, matching a downtrend signal timer expiration. We can already visualize a clear long entry, after 5 bars with no new lows, and a strong up bar in both daily and 4h charts, showing support was found at this critical time and price level. Placing a market buy now, and looking to scale in if it continues to move up. It's possible the RBA speech will introduce massive volatility, and I'm looking forward to it. Will update with further entries and trailing stop opportunities. Cheers, Ivan.
Long
by IvanLabrie
3
AUDNZD medium termAs the fundamental situation is changing I am looking to join the new up trend building. RBNZ last year was rising rate and now they are thinking to cut, on the other hand RBA after the last cut is becoming more neutral. Technically this cross has made a new higher high coming from an all time low, at the moment it looks too stretched and in need of a technical retracement. At the end of the retracement I'll be a buyer. I'll try to buy as low as possible to be able to place my stop loss below the all time low and keep my R:R higher than 1:1
Long
by DoNotFolloWmE
5
GBPAUD 4 HOUR LONGPRICE HAS JUST MADE A HIGHER LOW WHICH LOOKS LIKE A GOOD OPPORTUNITY TO GET IN WITH THE UPTREND. THIS COULD BE A GOOD CHANCE TO GET IN BEFORE THE RBA STATEMENT ON TUESDAY. THEIR IS A VERY GOOD CHANCE THE RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA (RBA) WILL CUT RATES WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN THE AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR WHICH WILL CAUSE THIS PAIR TO APPRECIATE. THE REASON WHY IM PAIRING AUD WITH GBP INSTEAD OF USD IS BECAUSE THE US NFP CAME OUT BELOW 200K WHICH IS VERY BAD WHICH WILL CAUSE TRADERS TO SELL THE DOLLAR BECAUSE THIS NOW MEAN THE JUNE RATE HIKE IS DEFIANTLY OFF THE TABLE NOW. ALSO WILL BE HEAVY PROFIT TAKING. I AM EXPECTING A BEARISH SENTIMENT ON THE DOLLAR THROUGH OUT NEXT WEEK.
Long
by remelthomas