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USDCNH, AUDUSD and NZDUSD: Don't fade an uptrendIn this chart I break down the price action in these 3 pairs. USDCNH is in a strong 2 day chart downtrend, and about to breach a key level on chart. Once below we can see it trade significantly lower, or even go back to the start of the recent massive PBOC devaluation rally start. AUDUSD, I have covered and even given a long entry for this trend, currently not giving a continuation signal, but the rally is so strong that it has become ridiculous to attempt shorting it. Usually, when a long term trend reverses, the reversal move is so violent that leaves everyone wondering what happened, waiting for retracements that never come to join, or simply getting stopped time and time again fading it. It has broken all resistances so far, and I'd like to see a new 10 bar+ level or it moving to the weekly timeframe or a different timeframe to trade it. For now, the 2 bar timeframe has proven effective, and unsurprisingly, it's acting like CNH, gaining strength when the chinese currency does. NZDUSD, there's a huge 10 day timeframe uptrend signal that will trigger soon, (could be a 17 week confirmed uptrend too, but might be too many bars at the mode). I'm long with a wide stop, and will add on retrace, and add as the trend progresses. It'll be hard to join, if you're not an avid position trader, and try to slap on tight stops and catch retracements. If we get further opportunities to long, it'll be a nice one to join. CoT positions in Milk futures show commercials have lowered shorts aggressively and are now flat, and creeping into the long side. Copper, commercials are flat, but might go net long soon, favoring this long Asia thesis. I think these trends are here to stay, don't miss out on the moves to come. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
1
EURAUD: Multiple reasons to go longThe EURAUD chart is a very interesting one. I'm in a small long position, looking for more reasons to add to it soon. Price has found support in the quarterly chart, where we see two 10 quarter levels, with the recent low landing right on this level before forming a nice base, after a very sharp outside bar. From the recent swing low, price has formed a base, with a W bottom shape, which forms a larger double bottom with the December 3 low. This paints a very bullish picture for this pair, with generous upside to be seen. I'd reccomend finding long entries on the break of the downtrend 50% speed line, with stops under the mode. You could theoretically rush into it now, with a wide stop loss, but you might be better off waiting for more confirmation to long. If any of the trading strategies you use, fits and lets you find an entry here, by all means take it! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
GBPAUD: Shorts are favoredLet's see if GBPAUD has what it takes to fight all the bearish signals on chart, and break above the previous downtrend mode resistance. The weekly chart offers a time at mode uptrend expiration signal, which suggests price can retest the mode at 1.94578 in 14 weeks or less. In the daily, off the recent swing low, an uptrend signal formed, but it has already reached its target, ahead of time. This suggests it's possible to expect a selloff from this resistance level, also emphasized by the bearish hanging man candle pattern that formed in the last close. I'll be monitoring for a short entry using the 4h chart, good luck if you decide to take this short. This is a purely technical setup, we should do our own due diligence with it, since fundamentals for the Aussie don't indicate strength with the potential copper downtrend that we have detected in our group. If you want live updates and more information, make sure to contact me via pm or skype. I provide signals for auto trading. I'm also providing access to a live trading chatroom where we give education to traders, as well as discussing the positions we're in. All of these are free of charge for concordbay.com customers. Cheers, Ivan Labrie Time at Mode FX Analyst at Concord Bay dot com
Short
by IvanLabrie
37
AUDUSD: Long entryI'll enter long positions in this pair if we break resistance and reach the price I signal on chart: 0.71645 Once triggered, it'd be probable to rally to one of the 3 targets on chart, and potentially more. For the time being, the cap resides at 0.72148, so after reaching that level it might be wise to monitor price action closely. The odds are pretty good for this setup, considering the fundamental landscape, as well as the technical picture this chart shows. Good luck if taking it, Cheers. Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
12
AUDCAD: Potentially very interesting setupIn the current enviroment, it's nice to add a 'long Canada/short Asia' trade, and this is what this setup is. Currently the trend is up in the weekly but there seems to be a chance for a sharp decline in the daily chart. Risk to reward makes for a great trade if it works, so it's worth it to risk at least 1/2 position on it. Props to @Synapse here for mentioning this pair to me today, I've been waiting to long Canada again, and this seems like a good vehicle for such trade. Good luck if taking it! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
13
Long AUDNZD Idea- Weekly Inverted H&S+Renewed Policy Divergence The weekly chart shows a very interesting inverted head & shoulders pattern following a significant AUD decline against the NZD after breaking, but failing to hold below the December 2005 lows. With the renewed dovish tone of the RBNZ after disappointing dairy prices, and even more disappointing consumer price figures, this looks to be a good opportunity for medium term longs on the AUDNZD. The RBA continues to remain on hold with the 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures suggesting a 94% probability of no change, while expectations for further cuts by the RBNZ have increased from 8% to 40% since the latest statement, according the current OIS market. This pair also limits the exposure to falling commodities and risk tone considering both the Aussie and Kiwi are higher yielding commodity currencies.
Long
by ChrisMathis
1
AUDNZD Long Fundamentally we have the Reserve Bank of Australia with a neutral stance and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand with a neutral stance after the latest rate cut. In fact the NZ CPI Figures are scheduled for this week before we head into the showdown of the RBNZ in the last week of January. I am expecting a drop in NZ CPI Figures of round about -0.5%, while the newest Dairy Auction should bring a negative result for milk price pouder what should force the RBNZ to act further this year and give up the neutral stance. Further the El Nino should have a much bigger Impact on NZ's Economy than on Australia Economy. The Reserve Bank of Australia should keep the Cash Rate unchanged throughout the year. The only thing i am worried about are the falling coal and iron ore prices what is more related to Australias ToT. Further the weakness surrounding about china is more bad news for the Land Down Under than for NZ because Australia Export round about 33 % to China, while NZ is only within the game with round about 20%. Technically we are also preparing for a big move higher. This does not mean it could happens this or next week. But should the NZ CPI Figures and Dairy Prices tank, than the RBNZ has to act again. Currently the RBNZ expects CPI to shrink to -0.2%. But as said earlier, I am expecting a drop to -0.5%. Anyway, in the weekly and monthly chart we are forming a nice head and shoulders reversal pattern. What i am also wanted to say is: The iron ore and coal prices what i am worried about has fallen significantly already and the AUD adjusted to them a lot already. Anyway, short term we still have space to go a bit down to my area, but i am not thinking about that the AUD/NZD could test the Parity again. Further when we scroll back in history, we are at one of the most important support zones for this pair, what makes me more confident about it. Please let me know what you think. Thank you! Have a great sunday
Long
by robert.zach.7543
5
Aussie Sees Biggest Weekly Decline Since Sep 2011The Aussie had a rough start to the year, declining more than 4.8% against the US Dollar. This was the largest weekly decline in % terms since September 2011, when the pair declined over 6%. We are currently descending towards a triangle bottom marked by the 2015 lows - a break lower would initially target the 68 handle, marked by the 1.236 ext at .6794. Expect any short term rallies to remain capped below .7030, though a break above there would target .7165.
Short
by FXTechs
GBPAUD: Critical junctureGBPAUD is approaching the yearly MA, and also about to complete a downtrend signal in the daily chart. It's possible that shorts will be unwound soon, by year end, we might see a large short squeeze rally in this pair, and maybe even the opening of new institutional longs for the new quarter. I'm really interested in entering with the tightest stop possible, so I'll be monitoring this for entry on the long side. If the yearly MA were to fail to contain the decline, then GBPAUD is in very bad shape and we can expect continuation to meet my weekly downtrend targets, around 1.98 or close. For the time being this looks like a large W bottom setting up, and has more positives than negatives for longs, so I'll attemp to ride the upcoming trending leg up. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
6
NZDUSD Elliottwave Daily Technical Analysis and ForecastTalking Points: NZDUSD Technical Strategy: Temporary Bullish Elliottwave Count: Wave C is still due We were tracking to see correction complete on or above .7200 area before downtrend. But this might not be a straight line. This can be played with two scenario. Scenario 1: where we might see upside on wave (c) and can be target on area zone of 7060, 7152 and 7234. If we reach those area in corrective channel we might mark correction close. But, in case of not, scenario 2 can be played. Scenario 2: which should point more upside and suggest complex correction and target towards 7500 area zone. We are putting less confident count on this as NZD fundamental are not strong as suggested. But this count too be considerable before marking any correction completed. Where we are? We initiated trade last week with this pair at price 6738 and after that, we suggested our client to move their stop loss to 6710, risking only 28 pips and now targeting 7060 as initial target. We move our stoploss higher once first objective met and book 50% of position and leave another 50% for more gain
Long
by Hittesh
Trade Idea for AUDUSDAlthough we are not keen to open a new trade position yet, we thought it might be useful to provide some analysis for the Aussie, just because we enjoy doing it. So here goes! Current momentum for Aussie is definitely bearish, although recent unemployment data has been much better then expected. However the low commodity prices is putting a cap on the AUD, especially with copper and iron prices printing fresh lows. Looking at the weekly chart above, the AUDUSD was trading within a range for the past 2 weeks, and last week managed to gain selling pressure as commodities were dumped, although it recovered on Friday, but closedat 0.7160, the previous support now supposedly turned resistance. Clearly the rally for the past month to test 0.7380, the level capping the trend as bearish, failed, with selling momentum back on, and forming a double top in the process. With this failure, we can expect to see price head back towards 0.6900. After last friday's recovery however, traders who want a high possibility trade should wait for the bearish momentum to resume.  We have below the 4hr chart, which shows a strong recovery prior to the end of the US session on Friday, but still capped below 0.7200. Further bearish signals on the lower timeframe charts will provide a entry to go short on the back of bearish momentum. with the speed of the decline, not very strong at the momentum, respecting neither the 8 nor 21 EMA.  Cheers! FX Genesis Fund Manager For more analysis, please visit our page at www.fxgenesisfm.com
Short
by FxGenesis
GBPAUD: UpdateSee the related ideas for my analysis of this pair, which demonstrate the power and surgical precision of the Time at Mode methodology I learned from Tim West here. In this juncture, the weekly chart is offering a potential retracement entry, in case we were to see such an event, which would guarantee a 9.54:1 trade op. In case price were to continue straight down, I'd be looking for alternative ways of joining the decline, perhaps having to resort to lower timeframe entries for instance. For information on managing positions, and getting trade signals and coaching, contact me or Nicholas Coulby (ncoulb1) here. We're running a trading room Skype group for Forex, CFD, Metals, Energy or Stock traders. Cheers, Ivan Labrie Time at Mode FX
Short
by IvanLabrie
16
AUDUSD: At the crossroadsI'm monitoring AUDUSD to enter a long trade today if possible. After today's close, and before the RBA minutes come out, I'll be entering pending orders, and sharing them here. The outlook is bearish for the dollar mostly, and if we have evidence of the Fed delaying hikes until next year (which we did today), I think we can expect a continued rallying in risk on assets, one being AUDUSD, NZDUSD and Gold (yes, paper gold implies risk as well, and has been correlated to the Dow and S&P lately). For more information and insights into managing this position, scaling in, and understanding the logic behind the technical setups contact me via pm. I'm currently hosting a skype group, where I share trade setups and also provide traders with training, as well as 2 private webinars per week, and also giving tutoring via skype calls, on a one on one basis. See the GBPAUD idea for an example of the kind of work that I do. Cheers, Ivan Labrie Time at Mode FX
by IvanLabrie
3
AUDUSD Near-Term OutlookThe Australian dollar is coming off a sizable gain against the greenback, following an employment jump of 58,600. This pushed the unemployment rate down to 5.9 percent from 6.2 percent in September. Analysts are expecting this to hinder further rate cuts near-term, while economist Stephen Koukoulas believes the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may indeed raise rates. Before we jump off the deep-end, I noted following the higher than expected employment data that Australian employment from month-to-month is volatile and should be taken with a grain of salt. I have witnessed a gain of 70,000 one month followed by a loss of 20,000 the next. Furthermore, wage growth is rapidly contracting. Traders watch central banks fumbling with whether to continue on a path to ease or not. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) increased their key benchmark by 100 bps on a series of strong, albeit short-lived, data only to reverse course in less than a year’s time. AUDUSD is trading within a descending channel on the 4H chart leading into the RBA policy minutes on Monday. If the RBA can hold off on further easing, the pair could set up for a potential near-term trend break. Near-term resistance is located at .7163 and .7217, while if the RBA hints at further easing, AUDUSD could continue its path lower .7070. The week is chalk full of U.S. data, which could aid the Aussie dollar in either direction. If U.S. data is weak enough and triggers greenback selling, the pair could achieve near-term resistance targets. Moving average activity is looking like it is setting up for a 20/50-EMA bullish convergence, but until then they are merely minor support levels. Intraday momentum, as measured by the ADX, is rather weak at 14. The +/- DMI is suggesting bullish price action is still there, but the RBA could quickly jawbone a change. Please follow me on Twitter @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytrading.com oilpro.com
by CommoditiesTrader
GBPAUD Bullish View fundamentals #RBA #China #forexMy mood is bullish for that Pair. Basically due to fundamentals like cheap oil FX:USOIL , iron ore, coal and metals like copper FX:COPPER . Main consumer worldwide and in this region is China. China's economy is slowing down after years of +7% growth. www.tradingeconomics.com www.tradingeconomics.com One of China's big supplier is Australia. atlas.media.mit.edu Australia's currency devalues with cheap commodities. Watch out for the main event for GBPAUD. Interest Rate in Australia is reported by the Reserve Bank of Australia this week. www.tradingeconomics.com
Long
by piptank
AUDUSD: Long a retracement if offeredAUDUSD seems to be reversing the long term downtrend that started in July 2014. There's only one week left in the largest mode's signal, and after exceeding the target, price formed a double bottom, and we observed a very strong rally emerge after its completion. I'll be placing pending long orders here, similarly to NZDUSD, to try and capture the uptrend if it were to materialize. If I don't get a fill, then I'll have to look for different entries. Good luck, and remember to check out my signals page at collective2.com. I offer live updates and trade management cues to minimize risk and maximize profits. Cheers, Ivan Labrie Time at Mode FX
Long
by IvanLabrie
4
EURAUD: Uptrend continuationIt seems like the time is finally right to buy into EURAUD. There's a 4h downtrend signal time expiration after this bar's close, as well as a relevant level of technical confluence: Fibonacci 0.382 retracement of previous impulse Range expansion support Low volume profile support Correlation to gold: Australian dollar will suffer, gold breached the weekly mode down, so it's probable to see AUD weaken. Stop loss should be below 1.43296, or using daily 3 atr value for it, or 1 atr below the low after the close. Depends on your preference. I will have no TP, and will watch the hourly chart for entry, but you could enter now with a wide stop and average the entry as well. Good luck, Ivan.
Long
by IvanLabrie
31
EURAUD: Multiple timeframe analysis suggests rallyThis is an update to my previous EURAUD chart, I was waiting for a long entry and it just presented itself to me. We have an hourly impulse forming, looks like a 5 wave advance, which could be the first of a new bullish cycle. The daily chart shows a strong mode has been formed and price is about to move above it, after producing a series of strong moves up followed by weak and grinding corrections. This looks like a potentially explosive long trade, with the weekly timeframe hinting at the possibility of a larger uptrend as well. I'll enter long and manage the position, trying to scale in on every chance I get. The initial target is the projection of the point of balance off the lows to the mode of the current distribution curve (a time spent at price profile of recent price action, as per Tim West's technique). A hefty move, considering this is only a very speculative projection, price can always end up trending and moving faster and in wider intervals. We'll see in due time, for now, looking to get long off lower timeframe signals, speculating that the larger timeframe ones will be confirmed with me already in an advantageous position. Cheers, Ivan.
Long
by IvanLabrie
12
EURAUD: Ideal opportunity for a pair tradeAfter seeing The Working Trader's idea I figured I could attemp a pair trade in this pair, to take advantage of the interest rate differential in both EURUSD short and AUDUSD long. The entry will be a market order, but I'd have to see how the markets open tomorrow, I will update the chart by then. For now, keep in mind that for pair trades, I aim to open a big position on each side, which thanks to the pair trade's more 'market neutral' stance, lets me use no stop loss and be somewhat safe, at least, as long as the ratio chart's setup is valid (in this case EURAUD). The advantages are multiple, check out The Working Trader's post in 'related ideas' for more information, I detailed it there. For now, if you want to enter this trade, find out the ADR value (atr of 1,5,10 and 20 bars added together and divided by 4). Once you know this you can calculate position size in base on your desired risk, per day. You will have to watch the trade, unless you're deep in profit, it won't be a set and forget deal. Good luck, and wait for the update regarding entry tomorrow. Target is initially the time at mode one, but it can retrace the whole terminal wedge (it should for it to be valid, and it has to occur in 1/3-1/4 the time it took to be formed). Cheers, Ivan.
Short
by IvanLabrie
11
Copper: offering clues for the Australian dollar tradersWatch this commodity, since it's very influential, showing a high positive correlation with the australian dollar. Right now I have a bullish weekly setup, aiming for the area depicted by the triangle, which happens to match two channels' resistance. Rgmov is advancing with price, and currently showing a 0.382 retracement after the recent bearish swing. Will this be a refresher before further upside? Should be constructive to keep this as reference when trading Australian dollar FX pairs. Good luck, Ivan.
FX:COPPER
by IvanLabrie
6