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EURAUD: Cypher Pattern W/ Trend but BE AWARE.Before checking out what's in store for us on the fundamental side of things I would have called this a no-brainer trading opportunity. On the daily chart we have recently put in a LLLC and presently we're retracing back into the previous 2 days highs. Not to mention we've had the completion of a bearish Cypher pattern at 1.3828 which I'd be looking to use as an entry reason into a TCT trade offering a good sized reward compared to it's risk. The one concern that we need to be aware of is the 8:30 NY time RBA Monetary Policy Minutes. Will they give a drop a hint about rate cuts or not? That's the big question, and we all know (or know now) that because the Asia markets are very thin, news on the Aussie tends to react in a major way. I'll be sure to stay very close o my computer before the announcement to avoid or rather minamize potential slippage one way or another
Short
by Akil_Stokes
31
AUDUSD broken support at 76 cents. What's next on the table?Disappointing chinese data and USD strength has resulted in AUDUSD breaking out of its consolidation around the 76 cents to 79 cents range in the past month. Support at 76 cents was not strong enough to form a triple bottom. Prices likely to head lower with expectations of a further rate cut by the RBA. The only solace for the AUDUSD came from a better than expected unemployment data (6.3% actual vs 6.4% consensus), bringing the pair back into the 76 cents territory. R:R ratio suggests looking for a more appropriate level between 77- 78 cents for a short.
Short
by JonathanWong
Late Entry: $NZD vs. $JPY: Predictive Analysis/Forecast #forexTraders, Sorry for this late entry. Analysis originates from early December - Please, ignore TG-1 hit to keep it honest. Here is what I posted as a retrospective commentary on the "Predictive Analysis?Forecasting" chatroom today - I hope this makes things right by you: =============================== * * * 10 DEC 2014 * * * - H4:I thought I saved this chart as a preliminary study on December 02nd, 2014, when I built the chart. However, I cannot locate the chart in TradingView. Please, ignore the dates on the chart, as it may give the impression that I defined the targets after the fact. My apologies on that. Still, the analysis/forecasting is genuine and original.Analysis should have included a comment on NZD expected decline based on bearish dairy news and sovereign central bank action towards keeping or decreasing rates (very bearish for NZD) versus recent analysis on the and $ES revealing a probable reversal - It hit target since then and rolled quite drastically. The NET effect on should be a cantilevered force to the downside on the pair. David Alcindor ================================ (Source: www.tradingview.com ) In any case, the primary target was easily identifiable by its relation to Fibonacci's 1.414 and 1.618 extensions following completion of 5th wave. Price has since reversed to the projection of a lower bullish trendline born out of Point-4 and the next higher low point. For fundamental reasons stated above, the market is likely to maintain bearish pressure at these levels. On technical grounds, I would look for the failure of 91.810 as an early indication of further softening of bullish ground, thus opening up to the following bearish targets: 1 - TG-1 = 90.796 - 02 DEC 2014 (done already, but likely to impose a R/S effect on price action) 2 - TG-2 = 80.517 - 02 DEC 2014 3 - TG-Lo - 87.662 - 02 DEC 2014 and 4 - TG-x - 84.787 - 02 DEC 2014 Numerical targets carry a higher prop value, in contrast to nominal targets. However, numerical targets only impose shallow Fibonacci retracement, whereas nominal targets are high-prob reversal 9i.e.: minimum of 0.618+) David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Denver, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster -----
Short
by 4xForecaster
14
Long GBPAUD - Fundamentals and Technical matchesEntered Long GBPAUD at 1.83295 (200-Hour Smoothed MA and also 23.6% of 1.72134-1.86828) Fundamental: With BoE minutes/ RBA Speech/ Australia CPI inflation coming out, volatility should ensue. USD weakness has caused both GBP and AUD to be at elevated levels. Feels AUD more so after better than expected China GDP, IP, etc. numbers. Technical: AUDUSD has been in consolidation since start of the month, whilst GBPUSD looks more likely to look for a retracement after the swift fall. Daily chart as above also showed a bullish flag pattern on the GBPAUD pair (credits to EagleTrades - link below) Both 100 and 200 DMA are trending upwards SL right below 200 DMA which coincides with previous high in August (1.81866) TP1/2 at 1.8600/80 respectively
Long
by Speculator2
$AUDCAD: Target Hit; Abysmal Target Next | $AUD $CAD #forexHello Friends, As you may recall, last analysis demonstrated that we hit TG-1 = 1.01173 dead-on, and there remained the possibility of a TG-Lo = 1.00892, although the question was whether Wave-4 of a large 5-wave pattern had completed and would instead move on to a higher and final impulse Wave-5 at TG-Hi = 1.02346 - All of these targets add been defined by the predictive/forecasting model on 30 JUL 2014. At this point, Point-5 distinguished itself by its price validation, albeit at a fraction of a pip missing (data on TradingView indicates 1.02336, whereas a separate FXCM-USA data indicates 1.02339, both a few fractions short of the TG-Lo value at 1.02346). Assuming that the experience trader had fronted his Take-Profit position (moving T/P ahead of the TG by the value of the spread), then we hope that this predictive targeting got you in the green. If not, perhaps next time, we'll try to be less precise and allow for that little "je ne sait quoi". TECHNICALLY: Elliott Wave's 1-2-3-4-5 structure has completed. Trader should now turn to a 3-wave correction (A-B-C) which should help define the first impulsive manifestation of Wave-1 within a new 1-2-3-4-5 wave structure. For the time being, I would wait and keep the directional bias under "Neutral". PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING: The predictive/Forecasting model is putting out an abysmal 0.99796 target down below. This target has no predictive value at this time, therefore, it remains to be defined as a quantitative target (i.e.: TG-1, TG-2, ... ) or a qualitative target (i.e.: TG-Hi or TG-Lo). DEFINITIONS: As you may recall, quantitative targets define levels of significant R/S rated at a decreasing probability of getting hit, where price might hold, consolidate or retrace at a significant Fibonacci level, whereas qualitative targets define levels of significant reversibility, where price has a much lesser probability of attaining, but if and once it does so, price will have a high probability of reversing. The analogy here is that of a recoil, which makes it more and more difficult to compress (lesser probability of complete compression), but once it reached that level, it will spring out forcefully with great probability). OVERALL: Price hit last Point-5 of the 5-Wave Elliott structure; expect a reversal to the downside ever since that event completed. An abysmal target is defined through the predictive/forecasting model at: TG = 0.99796 - This is a neutral target (i.e.: neither quantitative nor qualitative - see definition above), and a model-based direction remains to be confirmed at this point. I hope you have enjoyed the prior analyses and that you will continue to follow them on Twitter under @4xForecaster. I have also started to share important information on large banks position in the Forex market. Since institutional force is the wind that move the Forex, it is quite essential to know who goes where. Experienced retail traders can then affirm their own positions against the revealed trades made by the large banks. Thank you for your kind referral among friends and colleagues. There is nothing to buy, nothing for sale, and no gimmick - Just pure unadulterated advanced technical analysis pornographic pleasure. Cheers, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis/Forecasting Denver, Colorado, USA
by 4xForecaster
9
Fading Glenn Stevens' Comments as EURAUD Hits ResistanceGlenn Stevens of the Reserve Bank of Australia made some comments favoring a weaker Australian dollar that presumably contributed to a decline in AUDUSD. Of course, central banks talking down their own currencies in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis is nothing new. And while it may have created a noticeable short-term effect, I think it will hardly be remembered, and will not be visible on the price action in the charts to come. The comments from Stevens caused AUD to tank, running right into support (or resistance on pairs where AUD is the counter currency). I'm seeing candlestick weakness, resistance, a 50% Fibonacci retracement, and a 50 SMA all lining up for EURAUD. As such, I'm short at 4597, with my stop at 4673 and my target profit at 4122. I'm risking 76 to gain 475, giving a reward/risk of 6.25. www.informedtrades.com
Short
by cfdtrading_news
Bearish Potential ... Watchful Waiting | $AUD $JPY #RBA #BOJTraders, Potential reversal has emerged - albeit quite speculative - on the back of an expanding triangle near-completion at Point-5, as well as a prop-pattern potential ("Great White"). -------------------------- TECH-NOTE: The Case For A Higher Point-5: 1 - Note that such triangles can often post an overlap of Point-5 across its 1-3 line, so further rallying is not excluded. 2 - Point-5 might point higher on the basis of an incomplete a-b-c wave pattern -------------------------- I would seek reversal confirmation signals based on your own methodology first and foremost. However, I thought it worse posting. Predictive Model remains BULLISH at this point, hence the "speculative" qualifier on this one. If and once the predictive model comes into alignment with above speculative plan, then I release a series of target with better definitions - Again: IF and ONCE. OVERALL: - Pattern play is BEARISH - Predictive Model is BULLISH - NET consideration is NEUTRAL = Favors bearish downturn, pending confirmation Cheers, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
by 4xForecaster
10
Target Hit Dead-On ... Moving On | $EUR $AUD #ECB #RBA #ForexFriends, Last Wednesday, June 04th, i posted two bearish targets for this chart, nmaley: 1 - TG-1 = 1.43744 - 04 JUN 14 and 2 - TG-Lo = 1.40384 - 04 JUN 14. For a detailed technical commentary of the predictive analysis and forecasting, see the original chart/text here: . As of today, the outlook remains bearish and the lower target remains intact and in force. As defined in that former analysis, the "Lo/Hi" targets represent lesser probability events, but IF and ONCE price does reach these levels, it will have a tendency to represent a reversal. While the target remains valid, I expect some consolidation to occur. For this reason, I will turn the Directional indicator to "Neutral". Cheers, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting ---------------- Twitter: @4xForecaster ----------------
by 4xForecaster
1
All Bearish Targets Hit ... Momental Channels | $AUD $NZD #RBNZFriends, Last Wednesday, June 04th, I released two bearish targets, namely: 1 - TG-1 = 1.08986 - 04 JUN 14 and 2 - TG-2 = 1.08521. (Source: ) Both of these bearish targets got hit with great precision as of this hour (see M14 timeframe for a closer look of the price action relative to these two bearish targets here: ). A third target, standing at the antipod of these recent two hits, was also defined last week on that same day. That bullish target remains defined as: TG-1 = 1.11619 - 04 JUN 14. While price did escape its standard channel, part of this demonstration I discussed about last time within the analysis was the use of momental lines/channels, in contrast to standard price channels. A QUICK LOOK AT MOMENTAL LINES: A closer look at the price action will define a close correlation between candle anatomy (wick and body) relative to these channels. For instance, the long bearish candle was born out of a split between two candles. That prior candle was itself coming out of a consolidation of candles whose wicks/bodies were clearly transected by these momental channels. In any case, the idea here is that technical analysis contains layers upon layers of occult geometries that are based on static (highs/lows point definition) as well as other hidden geometries defined by dynamic price action. Indeed, the momental lines are merely measuring the momentum of the price action, with one essential distinction: While standard price channels (included in this group all pitchforks, such as Schiff, modified Schiff and inside pitchforks) "live" along a short price action, momental lines retain the ability to define price S/R across the entire life of the chart and across any timeframes. In essence, momental lines have a fractal property that is just as distinct as Elliott Waves and geometric patterns. While these momental lines remain unshared in their construction, the neat property of TradingView charts is that you are able to acquire the chart I built and move any elements around. This means that you can move these momental lines around and use them to follow price as it evolves. At this point, I will keep the directional bias as "Neutral" while price consolidates. Cheers, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting ------------------ Twitter: @4xForecaster ------------------
by 4xForecaster
6
Wedge & Predictive/Forecast Model Interplay | $EUR $AUD #ForexFriends, A very quick note here highlighting both a long-term pattern development found in a wedge, which I have overlaid over the results of my predictive/forecasting model, whose targets are defined as: 1 - TG-1 = 1.43744 - 04 JUN 14 and 2 - TG-Lo = 1.40384 - 04 JUN 14. With ECB decisions coming up tomorrow (05 JUN 2014), the Forex community may or may not have priced the outcome already - I personally tend to think that institutional traders would tend to position price to dampen losses against any surprise while maximizing on strategic positions. In the case of this pattern, I would say that dwelling at the upper portion of the pattern (i.e.: keeping price close to the upper border) does just that: It positions price against any unlikely upward surprise (i.e.: current rate is at 0.25%, while forecast/consensus is at 0.10%, thus likely to pull $EUR downwards) - But then again, this is all guess work, and this is the last thing I need. Instead, I like solid, reliable data for my forecast. PATTERN ANALYSIS: The pattern that stands in the background can be defined as either a Bearish Cypher or Bearish Shark. You will see that the least probable of the forecast level (i.e.: TG-1= 1.43744 - 04 JUN 14) comes into perfect alignment with what would complete as a Cypher, such that Points XA would project at 0.786-Fib ~ 1.43744, whereas a Shark would seek a deeper point of completion, which is not quite well aligned with the lower TG-Lo = 1.40384, considering that a Bullish Shark would seek 1.131 x zero-A position as its outer most completion at Point-C (as you may recall, the Shark is only a "quasi-pattern", incomplete by a one-off system, which starts its count at Point-zero, then moves on to complete at Point-C. This is so because the Shark pattern is the introducing feature of the 5-0 pattern, which completes at 50% of the recent Shark B-C impulse - Consult Scott Carney's Harmonic Trading books and website for more information on this). Cheers, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting ------------------ Twitter: @4xForecaster ------------------
by 4xForecaster
1
RBA Minutes - Neutral, sprinkled with dovishnessSo, price rallied, tripped the stop loss orders at 0.93157 and retreated. The RBA minutes are a lot more easier to read/understand. While 3/4th's of the minutes is just the usual crap, the last 2 paras was where the Golden egg was. "Aussie still high by historical standards" 1. Its funny how traders ignore the very obvious. Last year someone from RBA commented 0.8 is the more comfy level for AUDUSD, but Aussie failed to drop lower. 0.95 and above makes RBA very uncomfy. 2. Markets are fickle. US NFP was bullish on face value, but declining participation rate paints a diff. picture. Logically we'd assume USD to lose value. It did but markets seem to be ignoring that for now. 3. Price moves in support/resistance levels. After hitting 0.94, price was literally hovering around with no support. It found minor resistance at 0.93 and now looking to find support, which obviously sits in at 0.915 - 0.912 region. 4. May 8th the all important Aussie labour data will be released. Regardless of the outcome Aussie has to find support if it wants to push higher. Suggestions: Short but move to BE by EOD today.. or near today's high. Set pending buy orders around 0.912 - 0.915 region targeting 0.95, 0.96. EURAUD, the other chart i'm monitoring has not retraced to prior support to find resistance. So it justifies the Aussie shorts. P.S: Look to any Aussie pairs, AUDCHF for example and price rallied without finding proper support. EDIT: Forgot to put in the linked chart: (Post NFP analysis)
Short
by justatrader
2
AUDUSD - Why its important to have the big picture in mind***Why do you need to have an idea on the bigger picture*** I've seen quite some trade ideas between my last Aussie chart and now. Some calling longs, some calling to stay out.. I must admit, at times even I got a bit confused, but this chart has kept me on the right side of the trade. For example, the retracement to 0.93065 was picture perfect. (It was a high of previous NFP which was waiting to be picked). So the bias is still to the downside and short positions should be closed near 0.912 (there is some room to the downside but let's not get too greedy). Lot of US data today and tomorrow (starting with Aussie PPI early hours). We're looking for a drop to 0.91023 - 0.91323... (therefore 0.912 because its round and sounds like a nice number between those two) At current levels, there should be no reasons for RBA to take a dovish stand (If price hovers below 0.93 levels). If May's labour data for Aussie also comes out bullish, then we can head back to 0.95 levels. There's something more interesting happening at 0.95, which i'll update later on. ***Importance of referencing other pairs*** Check the linked EURAUD chart, which shows that a bullish move is required for EURAUD to confirm its bias to the downside. A retracement to 1.526 level or something. This points to an interim weakness in the Aussie to achieve that which coincides with the weakness in AUDUSD to retrace to NFP & Aussie labour data highs couple of months ago. Now combine AUDUSD, EURAUD and we can get a sense of direction EURUSD must take for the analysis to come true, which in turn can help you understand if any sudden moves opposite to the trade is valid or just a temp. glitch. Current risks: Refer to today's fundamentals from the US. Next update: Post NFP Good luck!!
by justatrader
9
Techs Calling Top; Funds Expect Reversal | $AUD $USD #RBA #forexFriends, The Aussie steamrolled over a potential counter-trend idea and marched on to loftier levels, which are now challenging significant technical patterns. In addition to predictive analysis and forecasting data calling for a reversal within the potential reversal zone (PRZ) range defined by technical data alone, a fundamental element is likely to come into play in that vicinity as well. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS DATA: First, let's define some of the points in the charts: 1 - Shark pattern, defined by its unusual Zero-X-A-B-C points, where Point-C remains pending - Shark is expected to complete at C = 0.96501 - Shark is a pre-pattern (pattern precursor) to its 5-0 Pattern acolyte 2 - A bifid Head & Shoulder, defined by two distinct shoulders and necklines - First set of shoulders (S1) project a symmetry (h1) at 0.96436 - Second set of shoulders (S2) project a symmetry (h2) at 0.95003 3 - A 5-0 pattern aiming at a return to its Point-D, which remains HIGHLY speculative - The 5-0 pattern is a finding of Scott Carney, worth studying on his www.harmonictrading.com site - While a Shark can complete at 0.886 x 0A or 1.131 x 0A, expect a minimum retracement of 50%, hence defining the five-zero of the 5-0 pattern. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS & FORECATING DATA: A retracement to a supportive 0.92682/0.93013 range is anticipated from the recent impulse. A break and close below 0.92266 should concern vested bulls. Otherwise, directional bias remains bullish and sees a probable continuation into the PRZ defined above, favoring TG-1 = 0.96121 as a probable target. FUNDAMENTAL DATA: RBA opted last month to keep rate unchanged, although noting that a recent rallying of the currency might temporarily impact the anticipated economic recovery. Indeed, recent improvements in core economic data has pushed the pair of this export-dependent continent to increasingly higher levels. So, expect the RBA to provide verbal hints that could help counter the current appreciation of the Aussie. However, before any verbal intervention turned into monetary policy action, several months are likely to go, as long as the rate remains distanced from the 0.9500 water mark. OVERALL: With all of its pattern tools out of the box, technical analysis is coming out screaming and banging at price, as it nears a narrowly-defined PRZ. A layered analysis/forecasting with my own prop system falls within this narrow PRZ, so there is little left for loftier delusions at this point. Also, Stevens of RBA let the pair rise against a non-intervention stance, risking a near-term squeeze to higher AUD levels. But now that the positive domestic data is getting absorbed, a little RBA jawboning might suffice to keep bulls at bay. I expect this to occur within the range defined by the technical data above. Directional bias is LONG, but I will keep the indicator at "NEUTRAL" to emphasize a nearing of significant technical levels. It will take an early market reversal sign, then a bearish market reversal signal to change it to SHORT. That will take a bit of time. Cheers, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis and Forecasting Get my signals, analyses and forecasts on Twitter: (Alias: @4xForecaster) ------------------------------------- Disclaimer: - All my comments are founded on unshared proprietary as well as common knowledge of technical analysis: Do your own due diligence before trading any market/asset. Additionally, my signals, forecasts, analyses and directional opinions are for educational purposes only and are not trading recommendations. Again, do your own due diligence first, then seek financial advice from a licensed professional, and only then enter the market at your own perils - David Alcindor - TradingView.com Alias: 4xForecaster
by 4xForecaster
10