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Inflation not down under!Australia's CPI data, released yesterday, showcased figures hotter than anticipated. While this may not be 'reaction-worthy' news on its own, the scenario in Australia is worth delving into for several reasons. Inflation Trends Initially, let's consider inflation trends. In most western economies, although inflation remains above central bank targets, the trends are on a downward trajectory. However, when juxtaposed against those for the European Union (EU) and the United States (US), Australia's (AU) inflation rates on a month-over-month (MOM) and year-over-year (YOY) basis still stick out from the norm. Moreover, yesterday’s CPI prints surpassed consensus on both the YOY & MOM basis, indicating a notable deviation from expectations. In fact, Australia's YOY CPI is now on its longest streak above inflation expectations, and crucially, inflation expectations have ceased revising downwards. Given the higher inflation levels compared to its peers, consensus estimates, and expectations, inflation remains a significant concern for Australia. Interest Rates In the realm of interest rates, Australia has been a long-standing “pauser,” having maintained its policy rate unchanged since its June meeting. This prolonged pause now further opens the leeway to raise rates, especially given the “watch and see” approach adopted towards burgeoning inflation. Additionally, its interest rates remain low compared to the US, EU, Canada, and even New Zealand. As a result, on the real rates basis, Australia trails far behind, with its policy rate still 1.3% behind its inflation rate, significantly less restrictive compared to other economies that have already moved into positive real rates territory. We posit that the RBA is behind the curve and has room to react, given the considerably long period of pause and still negative real rates. The market seems to echo this sentiment too, as the odds for a hike in the next meeting surged post the CPI news, moving from 21% to 55%! Against multiple currencies, the AUD appears to be threading above the long-term support level, a threshold that has essentially defined AUD low. This strong support is expected to hold, given its tested and respected level across multiple currency crosses since 2020. Policy turning points between the two currencies, as indicated by the turn in the interest rate differential, have generally marked the trend change for the currency, notably for the AUDEUR pair. Given the persisting high inflation in Australia compared to various economies and metrics, should market expectations trend in the right direction, it's plausible the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may react with a rate hike. This action could tilt the rate differential and interest for the AUD, bolstering the currency. To capitalize on this bullish view on the AUD, we can consider a long position on the AUDEUR. We can set up this trade via a long position on the CME Australian Dollar Futures and a short position on the CME Euro FX futures to create a synthetic long AUD/EUR position at the current price level of 0.5951, stop at 0.5865 and take profit at 0.615. Given that one CME Euro FX futures is for 125,000 Euros and one CME Australian Dollar Futures is for 100,000 Australian Dollars, this suggest that we should use two Australian Dollar Futures to one Euro FX Futures to match the contract size, given that 125,000 Euros is roughly equivalent to 210,000 Australian Dollars at the prevailing exchange rate. Each 0.00005 increment in the Australian Dollar Futures is equal to 5 USD and each 0.00005 increment in the Euro FX Futures is equal to 6.25 USD. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au www.rba.gov.au www.asx.com.au www.cmegroup.com
ECONOMICS:AUINTRLong
by inspirante
2
AUD/USD extends gains, employment report nextThe Australian dollar has extended this week's gains. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6357, up 0.36%. Australia releases inflation on a quarterly basis, which magnifies the significance of each release. We'll get a look at third-quarter inflation on Wednesday, with a market consensus of 1.1% q/q, compared to 0.8% in Q2. Inflation is expected to fall to 5.3% y/y in Q3, down from 6.0% in the second quarter. Inflation eased in the second quarter, courtesy of a drop in fuel and food prices. The core inflation rate excludes energy and food prices but also declined in Q2 to 5.9% y/y, its lowest rate in a year. The drop in inflation is an encouraging sign and the Reserve Bank of Australia is hoping that the downtrend continues in the third quarter. Still, inflation is well above the RBA's target range of 2-3% and it will be a challenge for the central bank to bring inflation back to the target range. The RBA meets next on November 7th after holding rates for four straight months. What can we expect? Just two weeks ago, the rate odds for a quarter-point hike at the November meeting were just 3%, according to the ASX RBA rate tracker. That has ballooned to 21% currently, which means that while a fifth consecutive pause is likely, it is no longer considered a shoo-in. The RBA has been sending out a hawkish message, saying that the battle with inflation is far from over and further rate hikes remain on the table. Earlier today, Governor Bullock said the RBA "will not hesitate" to raise the cash rate over inflation fears. Despite the RBA's jawboning, the markets are leaning towards another pause, and provided that Wednesday's inflation report is not hotter than expected, it should cement a pause at the November meeting. AUD/USD has support at 0.6240 and 0.6184 0.6343 and 0.6399 are the next resistance lines
by fisherkj4
AUDJPY: Is this the start of the reversal?We saw some JPY strength last week and I think we could be starting to see reversal, however my confirmation of this will be below 93 support. Even though BoJ hasn't intervened yet, there was a lot of buying in the week which we saw against the USD, I still expect BoJ intervention soon. Nice pinbar rejection on the 4HR from my resistance block. Looking for a short here on LTF's, but with tight SL and will keep it following any move down.
Short
by Finchcliffe
AUD/USD edges lower, confidence data nextThe Australian dollar lost ground earlier in the day but has pared these losses. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6381, down 0.05%. The markets are braced for a deceleration in consumer and business confidence indicators, which will be released on Tuesday. Westpac consumer confidence change is expected to decline by 0.7% in October, following a 1.5% decline in September. Consumers remain pessimistic about the economic outlook, and the index, which is currently at 79.7, has been below the neutral 100 level since March 2022. The NAB business confidence index is expected to fall to -2 in September, after improving to 2 in August, the highest level since January. The Reserve Bank of Australia left rates unchanged last week and will meet next on November 7th. This provides the central bank time to evaluate key data, including third-quarter inflation later this month. The RBA has paused for four straight times but can't start to think about trimming rates until inflation, which rose to 5.2% in August, is closer to the 2%-3% target range. US nonfarm payrolls soared in September, with a huge increase of 336,000. This crushed the market consensus of 170,000 and the upwardly revised August reading of 227,000. The unemployment rate remained at 3.8%, compared to the market consensus of 3.7%. Wage growth decelerated in September - from 0.3% to 0.2% m/m and from 4.3% to 4.2% y/y. This is another sign that inflation is easing. The blowout nonfarm payrolls led to the Fed futures market increasing the odds of a rate increase before the end of the year, which currently stands at 31%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The Fed has been signalling that rates will remain "higher for longer" and traders are concerned that the Fed's scenario could play out, especially with the US posting strong releases such as Friday's nonfarm payrolls. AUD/USD is testing support at 0.6372. Below, there is support at 0.6299 There is resistance at 0.6430 and 0.6531
by fisherkj4
Why is AUD/CHF Going Down?The Australian dollar (AUD) has been on a downward trajectory against the Swiss franc (CHF) since the beginning of October 2023. The AUD/CHF exchange rate has fallen from 0.60 to 0.58, representing a decline of over 3%. There are a number of factors that have contributed to this decline. One factor is the ongoing strength of the Swiss franc. The CHF is considered to be a safe-haven currency, and investors tend to flock to it during times of uncertainty. The current global economic climate is uncertain due to a number of factors, including the war in Ukraine, rising inflation, and concerns about a recession. As a result, the CHF has been in high demand, which has pushed its value higher. Another factor that has contributed to the decline in the AUD/CHF exchange rate is the weakening of the Australian dollar. The AUD has been under pressure due to a number of factors, including the slowdown in the Chinese economy, rising interest rates in the United States, and concerns about the outlook for the global economy. As a result, the AUD has fallen against a number of currencies, including the CHF. The image attached to the query shows the AUD/CHF exchange rate over the past year. The chart shows that the exchange rate has been on a downward trajectory since the beginning of October 2023. The decline in the AUD/CHF exchange rate is likely to continue in the near term, as the factors that are driving the decline are expected to remain in place. Here is a more detailed explanation of the factors that are driving the decline in the AUD/CHF exchange rate: Strength of the Swiss franc: The CHF is considered to be a safe-haven currency, and investors tend to flock to it during times of uncertainty. The current global economic climate is uncertain due to a number of factors, including the war in Ukraine, rising inflation, and concerns about a recession. As a result, the CHF has been in high demand, which has pushed its value higher. Weakness of the Australian dollar: The AUD has been under pressure due to a number of factors, including the slowdown in the Chinese economy, rising interest rates in the United States, and concerns about the outlook for the global economy. As a result, the AUD has fallen against a number of currencies, including the CHF. Trade flows: Australia and Switzerland have a relatively small trade relationship. This means that the AUD/CHF exchange rate is not as sensitive to trade flows as some other currency pairs. However, the slowdown in the Chinese economy is likely to have a negative impact on the Australian economy, and this could lead to a further decline in the AUD/CHF exchange rate. Interest rates: The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has maintained a negative interest rate policy for several years. However, the SNB is expected to raise interest rates in the near future. This is likely to make the CHF more attractive to investors, and could lead to a further decline in the AUD/CHF exchange rate. Overall, the decline in the AUD/CHF exchange rate is likely to continue in the near term, as the factors that are driving the decline are expected to remain in place. Investors should closely monitor the global economic climate, the strength of the Swiss franc, and the performance of the Australian economy to assess the outlook for the AUD/CHF exchange rate. Bard may display inaccurate or offensive information that doesn’t represent Google’s views. Bard Privacy Notice
Short
by masterclass618
EURAUD bullish on dovish RBA Bullish EUR/AUD on Dovish RBA Monetary Policy Reunion The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held its latest monetary policy meeting on October 3, 2023, and decided to keep the official cash rate (OCR) at 4.10%. This was widely seen as a dovish move, as markets had been expecting a 25 basis point rate hike. The RBA's decision was likely influenced by a number of factors, including the recent slowdown in the Australian economy, the ongoing war in Ukraine, and the risk of a global recession. In its statement, the RBA noted that "inflation is higher than expected in Australia and globally, and is expected to remain high for some time". However, the RBA also said that "growth in the Australian economy is expected to slow in the coming months, and the unemployment rate is expected to rise". The RBA's dovish stance is likely to be positive for the EUR/AUD currency pair. A lower OCR in Australia is likely to make the Australian dollar less attractive to investors, while a higher OCR in Europe is likely to make the euro more attractive. In addition to the RBA's monetary policy decision, there are a number of other factors that are currently supporting the EUR/AUD currency pair. These include: The ongoing war in Ukraine, which is weighing on the global economy and boosting demand for safe-haven currencies such as the euro. The risk of a global recession, which is also boosting demand for safe-haven currencies. The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to start raising interest rates in the near future, which would further support the euro. Technical Analysis From a technical perspective, the EUR/AUD currency pair is currently trading above a key trendline. This suggests that the pair is in an uptrend and is likely to continue to move higher in the near future. The next key target for the EUR/AUD currency pair is the 1.70 level. If the pair can break above this level, it could then move towards the 1.75 level. Conclusion The EUR/AUD currency pair is currently in a bullish trend and is likely to continue to move higher in the near future. This is supported by the RBA's dovish monetary policy stance, the ongoing war in Ukraine, the risk of a global recession, and the ECB's hawkish stance. From a technical perspective, the EUR/AUD currency pair is currently trading above a key trendline. The next key target for the pair is the 1.70 level. If the pair can break above this level, it could then move towards the 1.75 level. Trade Idea Buy EUR/AUD above 1.66 with a target of 1.70 and a stop loss below 1.6356. Risk Warning Trading foreign exchange (forex) is a risky activity and can result in substantial losses. Please ensure that you understand the risks involved before trading forex.
Long
by masterclass618
1
BURGER KING (RBA) Possible long entry The share is making a comeback. Showing some strength after long downtrend. I would accumulate slowly waiting upto a clear confirmation from neckline break in the charts. and most importantly a Golden crossover has already formed. Target price is Rs.200 anytime during the year 2024. Note: Trade with caution! Do not trade solely based on my strategies, these are just individual ideas, kindly consult your investment advisor before taking trades.
NSE:RBA
by StockSession
AUD/USD extends losses, CPI loomsThe Australian dollar is in negative territory on Tuesday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6405, down 0.28%. Australia releases the CPI report on Wednesday. In July, CPI eased to 4.9%, beating expectations and dropping to the lowest inflation rate since February 2022. CPI is expected to rise to 5.2% in August. Inflation remains more than double the 2% target, and the core rate is also high, with the trimmed mean dropping from 6.0% to 5.6% in August. The RBA has raised rates to 4.1%, the highest level since 2012. Have interest rates peaked? That is the thousand-dollar question. The futures markets have priced in a final rate hike before the end of the year at 35%, as investors are betting the Reserve Bank of Australia is likely done with rate tightening. The Australian economy has cooled off as a result of the RBA's tightening, and the slowdown in China could tip the economy into a recession if rates were to move higher. The central bank is understandably more hawkish, as policy makers don't want to close the door on further tightening with inflation still well above the target. The new RBA Governor, Michelle Bullock, has warned that the door remains open to further rate hikes and said that upcoming decisions will be based on key data. The RBA minutes from the September meeting indicated that members considered a rate hike, but in the end, opted to pause rates. In the US, Consumer Board (CB) Consumer Confidence slipped to 103.0 in August, down sharply from a revised July read of 108.7 and shy of the market consensus of 105.5. This marked a 4-month low. Consumers noted concern over rising gasoline prices and high interest rates and the percentage of consumers who expect a recession rose in September, according to the CB. This does not bode well for consumer spending, a key driver of US growth. AUD/USD is putting pressure on support at 0.6380. The next support line is 0.6320 There is resistance at 0.6446 and 0.6506
by OANDA
1
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NSE:BARBEQUELong
by Rachit_Sethia
USD/CAD rises to 22-week high, BoC decision loomsUSD/CAD is trading quietly in Europe at 1.3651, up 0.06%. I expect to see stronger movement in the North American session, with the Bank of Canada making its rate announcement and the US releasing the ISM Services PMI which is expected to show little change. The Bank of Canada is virtually certain to hold rates at today's meeting, with just a 6% probability of a rate hike, according to the TMX Group. That would leave the benchmark cash rate at an even 5.0%. BoC Governor Macklem would certainly like to call it quits on the central bank's aggressive tightening cycle and perhaps he can look for advice from his peers at the Federal Reserve and the Reserve Bank of Australia. Both the US and Australian economies have seen inflation fall significantly, but Jerome Powell at the Fed and Peter Lowe at the RBA have sent the markets a hawkish message that inflation isn't beaten and the door is open for further rate hikes if necessary. The markets have taken a more dovish stance and are already looking ahead to possible rate cuts. Macklem appears to face the same challenge of acknowledging that rate hikes have cooled the economy and curbed inflation while sounding credible about keeping open the option of further rate hikes. Last week's GDP report indicated that the economy contracted by 0.2%, compared to the BoC's forecast of 1.5% growth. The BoC has hiked repeatedly in order to lower inflation but there are concerns that the rate hikes in June and July may have tilted the risk toward a recession. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to pause at the September 20th meeting. The pause could signal that rates have finally peaked, although don't expect any Fed members to publicly state that the rate-tightening cycle is over. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on Tuesday that the Fed can afford to “proceed carefully” with rate hikes, given that inflation has been falling, and if the downtrend continues, "we are in pretty good condition". USD/CAD tested resistance at 1.3657 earlier. The next resistance line is 1.3721 1.3573 and 1.3509 are providing support
by OANDA
RBA expected to pause, US nonfarm payrolls rises slightlyThe Australian dollar has started the week with slight gains. In Monday's European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6464, up 0.21%. The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hold interest rates at 4.10% when it meets on Tuesday and a rate hike would be a huge surprise. The central bank has paused for two straight meetings and the odds of a third pause stand at 86%, according to the ASX RBA rate tracker. The most important factor in RBA rate policy is of course inflation. In July, CPI fell to 4.9% y/y, down from 5.4% y/y and better than the consensus of 5.2% y/y. Inflation is moving in the right direction and has dropped to its lowest level since February 2022. A third straight pause from the RBA will likely raise expectations that the current rate-tightening cycle is done but I don't believe we're at that point just yet. This is Governor Lowe's final meeting and he is expected to keep the door open to further rate hikes. Incoming Governor Bullock stated last week that the RBA "may still need to raise rates again", adding that the Bank will make its rate decisions based on the data. The RBA isn't anywhere near declaring victory over inflation and has projected that inflation will not fall back within the 2%-3% inflation target until late 2025. The week wrapped up with the US employment report for August. The Fed will be pleased as nonfarm payrolls remained below 200,00 for a third straight month, rising from a revised 157,000 to 187,000. Wage growth fell to 0.2% in August, down from 0.4% in July and below the consensus of 0.3%. The data cements a rate hold at the September 20th meeting, barring a huge surprise from the CPI report a week prior to the rate meeting. AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6458. Above, there is resistance at 0.6516 There is support at 0.6395 and 0.6337
by OANDA
Australian dollar edges up ahead of inflation reportThe Australian dollar is in positive territory on Tuesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6437, up 0.12% on the day. China's economic slowdown is bad news for the Australian economy, which counts China as its biggest export market. China's imports have been falling and as a result, commodity prices have dropped, hurting Australia's exports of iron ore and gold to China. China continues to record weak economic numbers and this will likely be reflected in lower GDP releases, although economic growth is above 5%. The Australian dollar is sensitive to China's economic strength and has declined by around 3% in the third quarter. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on September 5th and is widely expected to hold rates at 4.10% for a second straight month. There are clear signs of the economy cooling, including inflation and wage growth easing and a slight rise in unemployment. The RBA would like to extend the pause in rate hikes, with an eye on lowering rates sometime in 2024. All eyes will be on Australia's July inflation report which will be released on Wednesday. Inflation has been falling, albeit slowly. In June, inflation fell from 5.5% to 5.4% and the consensus estimate for July is 5.2%. If inflation drops to 5.2% or lower, it should cement a RBA pause in September. A higher rate than 5.2% won't necessarily mean a rate hike, but it would likely lower the odds of a pause, which are currently around 90%. In the US, it is a busy Tuesday with consumer confidence and employment releases. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence index has been on the rise and soared to 117.0 in July, up from 110.1 in June. The estimate for August is 116.0 points. JOLTS Job Openings is projected to decelerate for a second straight month in July, from 9.58 million to 9.46 million. AUD/USD tested support at 0.6424 earlier. Below, there is support at 0.6360 There is resistance at 0.6470 and 0.6531
by OANDA
Australian dollar takes a tumble as RBA pausesThe Australian dollar continues to swing wildly this week. In Tuesday's European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6630, down 1.30%. On Monday, AUD/USD jumped 1% higher. There were no surprises from the Reserve Bank of Australia, which paused for a second straight month and maintained the cast rate at 4.10%. The money markets had priced in a pause but the Australian dollar still took a nosedive after the decision, as the money markets have lowered the probability of a rate hike in September to below 20%. Recent key data showed that the Australian economy has cooled off, with inflation easing in the second quarter and retail sales for June falling by 0.8%. These numbers provided support for the RBA to take a pause at today's meeting. Still, the argument can be made that with inflation at 6%, double the upper band of the RBA's target range, there is room for further rate hikes. The RBA did not change its inflation outlook, predicting that inflation would not return to the 2%-3% target range before late 2025. Services inflation, which includes rising rent prices, remains sticky and this is a key concern for the central bank. Governor Lowe's rate statement said that future rate decisions "will depend upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks." This is a reminder that inflation and employment reports will play a key role in determining the RBA's rate path. There is speculation that the RBA is done with tightening, but with inflation still at high levels, Lowe's message to the markets was that further hikes remain on the table. In the US, today's key event is ISM Manufacturing PMI. The manufacturing sector remains in the doldrums and has been in decline since October, with readings below the 50.0 level. In June, the Manufacturing PMI slipped to 46.0, the lowest level since May 2020. Another decline is expected for July, with a consensus estimate of 46.8 points. AUD/USD has pushed below support at 0.6697. Below, there is resistance at 0.6573 There is resistance at 0.6771 and 0.6875
by OANDA
AUD/USD rebounds on stronger inflation releaseThe Australian dollar has started the week with strong gains. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6708, up 0.91%. The Aussie has rebounded after falling 1.25% last week. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on Tuesday and is expected to maintain the cash rate at 4.10%. The past two rate meetings have been close calls and that could be the case at Tuesday's meeting. The money markets, however, are squarely leaning towards a pause, with only a 14% chance of a hike, according to the ASX RBA Rate Tracker. Investors are basing expectations for a second straight pause on lower inflation and weaker retail sales. Both headline and core CPI eased in the second quarter, as inflation appears to be heading in the right direction. Retail sales surprised on the downside with a -0.8% reading in June, erasing the 0.8% gain in May and missing the consensus estimate of 0.0%. The RBA could surprise the markets with a hike, as inflation has fallen to 6% but is double the RBA's upper band of its 1%-3% range. As well, the labour market remains tight and the central bank is concerned that could lead to higher wages which means an increase in inflation. Tuesday's meeting will be the second to last for Governor Lowe, who may want to deliver another hike or two before his watch ends, in a bid to push inflation closer to the RBA's target. The RBA will release updated economic forecasts at the meeting, and investors will be especially interested in the inflation projections. The Melbourne Institute Inflation Gauge jumped 0.8% in July, rebounding from 0.1% in June and beating the consensus estimate of 0.5%. The upswing was somewhat surprising given last week's inflation report which showed a significant slowdown in inflation. The Australian dollar has moved sharply higher following the release. AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6697. Above, there is resistance at 0.6771 0.6573 and 0.6499 is providing support
by OANDA
A traders’ weekly playbook – no rest for the wicked Last week was some ride and I feel like I’ve aged 10 years, but what have we learnt? The Fed and the ECB are almost done tightening and market pricing shows this front and centre. In the case of the US, core PCE and the Employment Cost Index (ECI) showed us that price pressures and wages are abating. However, the US Q2 GDP print grew at an above-trend pace (at 2.4%), so we are staring at a resilient economy at a time when the Fed is done, and inflation grinds lower. Add in a 4.5% rally in Chinese equity on the week and the word ‘Goldilocks’ comes up liberally in conversation. It’s no wonder the chase is on and those underweight equity are feeling the heat. This positive growth factor is certainly not true in Europe and China, where growth has been consistently missing the mark – the US exceptionalism story is therefore firmly in play and keeps me constructive on the USD, even if the technicals/price action are not showing any strong bias to own USDs over other G10 FX. We see that the bullish trend in DM equity markets is mature and, in some cases, owned/loved – however, new highs seem more likely than not - Apple will need to impress in earnings this week. In Asia, it feels hard to trust the late week rally in HK50 or CHINAH, but I’m skewed long for another 3-5% upside. Huge inflows into mainland Chinese equities last week suggest more is to come. The BoJ threw a curve ball into the market on Friday with its cosmetic change to YCC – in essence, it was a brilliant move by the central bank, and they’ve managed to bridge the volatility that would come with a straight change to 1% in the YCC band, but have given themselves all the flexibility should they wish to tighten policy without causing ripples in the Japanese or global bond markets. After the fourth biggest trading range of 2023 on Friday in USDJPY, we should the ranges settle in the days ahead – Again, I don’t trust the last session sell-off in the JPY, notably vs the ZAR, MXN, and GBP, and we watch to see if the JP 10yr JGB grinds towards 75bp and above. We look forward to another big week of event risk – the BoE should hike by 25bp, while the RBA meeting is perhaps underpriced but line ball, and we know once we get the policy call the AUDUSD should revert to following USDCNH. US NFP should again highlight the US labour market is fine health, and EU inflation should offer a view that the ECB can’t be complacent but are close to the end. It's another week in paradise and managing risk and achieving correct position sizing will help you stay solvent. The marquee event risks for the week ahead: US Q2 earnings – while the bulk of the S&P500 market cap has reported Q2 earnings, in the week ahead we get around 15% of the market cap reporting. Numbers from the Apple and Amazon (both on 3 August) and QUALCOMM get the attention. Can we continue to grind to new highs in the US500 and NAS100? RBA meeting (1 Aug at 14:30) – Given the recent domestic economic data flow it will be a close call whether the RBA leave the cash rate at 4.1% or hike by 25bp. Interest rate futures price a 21% chance that the RBA leave rates on hold. I personally lean to a hold from the RBA – however, given the strength in the labour market data, increasing unit labour costs and house price data, one could argue this is under-pricing the risk of a hike. Bank of England (BoE) meeting (3 August at 21:00 AEST) - the BoE will choose between another pro-active 50bp hike or a more data-reactive 25bp hike. The market and economists see a higher probability of a 25bp hike, with the peak Bank rate expected to hit 5.83% by February 2024. We may also hear of an increased pace of quantitative tightening (QT) from October, although the BoE may wait until the September BoE meeting to update the market. US nonfarm payrolls (NFP - 4 August at 22:30 AEST) – the US labour market remains in rude health, and there are no clear signs of a cooling in the July employment data. In the lead-up to NFP we get ADP private payrolls and the JOLTS job openings report, so both could shape expectations for NFP. The consensus for NFP from economists is for 200,000 jobs to have been created, with the unemployment rate expected at 3.6%. Average Hourly Earnings (AHE) will be closely watched, as wages are a key consideration if the Fed are to go on an extended pause. The consensus is we see AHE +0.3% MoM / 4.2% YoY (from 4.4%). US ISM manufacturing (2 Aug 00:00 AEST) – The market looks for the index to come in at 46.9 (from 46.0), so a slight improvement from the June print. The ISM services print (due on 4 August) is also due this week and may be more influential on the USD. The market expects a slower pace of growth in the service sector with the index expected to print 53.0 (from 53.9 in June). A read below 50 in services ISM would likely see broad-market volatility pick up. Fed Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (1 Aug 04:00 AEST) – the SLOOS report on bank lending standards was referred to on several occasions at last week’s FOMC meeting – we expect a slowdown in credit and tighter lending, but whether this proves to be a volatility risk for markets seems unlikely. Watch the US banks close- the XLF and KBE ETFs offer good context here. China Manufacturing and Services PMI (31 July 11:30 AEST) – after last week’s Politburo meeting, there may be a limited reaction to this PMI report, as stimulus takes time to feed through to the real economy. For now, the market looks for the manufacturing index to come in at 48.9 (from 49.0) and services PMI at 53.0 (53.2) – a read below 50 shows contraction from the prior month, and above 50 signals expansion. EU CPI inflation (31 July 19:00 AEST) – the market expects the EU CPI estimate to come in at 5.3% (from 5.5%), with core CPI eyed at 5.4% (from 5.5%). The market currently prices 10bp of hikes for the next ECB meeting on 14 September – a 40% chance of a hike. An inflation print below 5.1% would be a surprise and should attract decent EUR sellers. EU manufacturing and services PMI (3 August 18:00 AEST) – this data point is a revision of the numbers announced on 24 July, so unless we get a marked revision to the preliminary print the data shouldn’t move the dial too intently. The market will be watching revisions to the service data more closely.
PEPPERSTONE:US500Long
by Pepperstone
AUD/NZD to benefit from yield differentials? A strong 2-day rally this week suggests AUD/NZD has printed its swing low at 1.07266. Whilst NZ inflation data was stronger than expected in Q2 and saw AUD/ZD pull back to 1.0800, we suspect it is still lower from the prior reads to allow the RBNZ to hold rates steady with an economy already in a recession. We therefore see today's retracement lower to 1.080 as a potential gift for bulls, and for a move to 1.0900 or even 1.1000 over the coming weeks. The RBA may still have to hike once or more and that could see expectations of a lower RBNZ-RBA cash rate and support AUD/NZD. A break beneath this week's low invalidates the bullish bias.
Long
by CityIndex
Aussie slips as inflation falls, Fed expected to hikeThe Australian dollar is in negative territory on Wednesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6758, down 0.49%. The Aussie fell as much as 0.90% earlier in the day but has recovered some of these losses. Australian inflation declined more than expected in the second quarter, sending the Australian dollar lower as pressure has eased on the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise interest rates. Headline inflation rose 6% y/y in the second quarter, down from 7% in the first quarter and below the consensus estimate of 6.2%. June monthly inflation dipped to 5.4% y/y as expected, below the May reading of 5.5%. The RBA Trimmed Mean CPI, a key gauge of core inflation, fell to 5.9% y/y in Q2, down from 6.6% in Q1 and just below the consensus of 6.0%. The positive inflation data was spoiled somewhat by services inflation, which accelerated to 6.3% in the second quarter, its highest level since 2001. A key factor driving up services inflation was higher rents, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The RBA meets on August 1st and investors have lowered the odds of a rate hike following the positive inflation report. The probability of a rate hike has fallen to 31%, down from 41% prior to the inflation report, according to the ASX RBA rate hike tracker. The RBA will release updated economic forecasts at the meeting, and investors will be especially interested in the inflation projections. What happens after August? An extended pause is the RBA's preferred move, but that will likely require inflation to continue heading lower toward the 2% target. Otherwise, the RBA will still have work to do on the inflation front and would likely have to continue tightening rates. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise rates at Wednesday's meeting, and investors have priced a hike at close to 100%. This would bring the benchmark rate to a range of 5.25% - 5.50%. Investors expect a pause in September but the Fed has signalled another rate hike after Wednesday's meeting. The Fed's rate policy will depend to a large extent on inflation levels and the strength of the labour market. AUD/USD is testing support at 0.6767. Below, there is support at 0.6687 There is resistance at 0.6811 and 0.6891
by OANDA
AUD/USD extends slide, Aussie employment report nextThe Australian dollar is down sharply on Wednesday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6774, down 0.55%. For anyone who enjoys strong volatility, look no further than the Australian dollar. Last week, AUD/USD climbed 2.18%, as the US dollar sagged badly after the June inflation report surprised on the downside. The Australian dollar hasn't been able to consolidate and has pared about half of those gains this week. Australia releases the June employment report on Thursday. After a banner reading in May, when the economy added 75,900 jobs, the consensus stands at a modest 15,000. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 3.6%. The Reserve Bank of Australia would prefer weaker job numbers as it tries to beat down inflation. The labour market has been surprisingly resilient in the face of the central bank's aggressive tightening, complicating the battle to curb inflation. The RBA has said that its decisions will be data-dependent, and inflation and employment numbers are critical to the RBA's rate path in the coming months. The central bank left rates alone at the meeting earlier this month and would like to extend the pause at the August 1st meeting. That, however, will require evidence that the economy is cooling and Thursday's employment numbers will be a key factor in the RBA's rate decision. The next meeting is on August 1st, with the money markets pricing a rate hike at just 25%, according to the ASX RBA rate tracker. The RBA has abandoned forward guidance in favor of making rate decisions based on economic data, which could make next week's employment report a game-changer as to whether the RBA pauses or hikes at the next meeting. AUD/USD is testing support at 0.6786. Below, there is support at 0.6676 0.6878 and 0.6947 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
RBA - Bullish Consolidation with VolumesNSE: RBA is closing with a bullish consolidation candle supported with volumes. Today's volumes and candlestick formation indicates strong demand and stock should move to previous swing highs in the coming days. The stock has been moving along the horizontal support for the past few days which is indicating demand. One can look for a 8% to 12% gain on deployed capital in this swing trade. The view is to be discarded in the event of the stock breaking previous swing low. #NSEindia #Trading #StockMarketindia #Tradingview #SwingTrade
NSE:RBALong
by BrahmaBull31