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The RBNZ could push AUD/NZD down to the 1.07 and 1.06 handlesIf the RBNZ hike by 75bp tomorrow in line with the consensus, it will be their first hike of this magnitude on record. It would also mean they have to upgrade their terminal rate of their OCR projection, which could be deemed as a hawkish hike by markets and send NZD higher against other currencies. Of course, this also leaves the Kiwi dollar to weakness should the RBNZ surprise markets with a 50bp hike tomorrow. As things stand, the RBA are expected to hike in 25bp increments and have even spoken of a potential 'pause' in rate hikes. This means RBNA remain the more hawkish than the RBA. This has allowed AUD/NZD to develop a nice bearish trend on the daily chart with timely swing highs, and prices are now on the cusp pf breaking lower and heading for 1.0700 and 1.0612. Unless we see a surprise 50bp hike tomorrow, the path of resistance appears lower for the cross and bears could seek to fade into rallies or short a break of new lows. - Initial target is 1.0700, then the 1.0612 low. - The bias remains bearish below 1.0900.
Short
by CityIndex
$NZDUSD: Tight stop, big target...I think the Kiwi offers a tremendous reward to risk ratio on the short side here. The situation with persistent inflation and rising energy prices is certainly a headwind for the economy, combined with Powell's increased determination as per his last speech at Jackson Hole, has helped bears gain ground here, triggering both a daily and a weekly down trend simultaneously. The invalidation for this signal is a move back above the 0.6255 mark, in which case a short squeeze would happen. Currently, the chart signal points to a decline towards 0.5762 by October 21st, the latest. Overall, good setup in the currency market to add to a more holistic trading portfolio (like mine). Any market that adds uncorrelated returns, is a good use of leverage/cash. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
2
$AUDUSD: Looking like a bottom...I suspect the Dollar Index is reversing, so I am identifying the currency pairs best positioned to rally from here. Given Australia's commodity exports, the Aussie pair is likely to benefit from increasing demand for copper, iron ore, lithium, to name a few, for years to come. Such tailwind won't help much if the Federal Reserve is still embarking in QT and tightening sprees, but we have some evidence pointing to a chance for CBs and govts/treasuries to reverse course or engage in some sort of policy reversal or pivot, via various tools at their disposal on the fiscal and monetary side of things. The headwind for Australia and Asia/Pacific being China as a wild card, post CPC 20th Congress, and black swan risk of a Taiwan invasion. That said, if conflict does arise, precious metals would likely rally, and probably help boost the Aussie dollar as well. Overall I suspect we are headed for a long period of outperformance for commodities and commodity exporters' currencies in the FX realm. Emerging Markets become interesting in that regard as well, worth looking into them for opportunities too. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
1
AUD/USD coils up ahead of the retail sales and RBA's MPSThe Aussie fell to below the 0.6300 target zone yesterday (marked by last week's VPOC - or volume point of control) With the RBA's quarterly MPS (monetary policy statement) and retail sales released at today at 11:30 AEDT, perhaps upgraded inflation forecasts can give the Aussie a bump higher. But whilst prices remain beneath the monthly pivot point, such bounces are likely to appeal to bears for swing trade shorts. However, the US dollar remains a force to be reckoned with so the core view on AUD remains bearish given the RBA's lack of hawkish interest (on a relative basis). A break of yesterday's low assumes bearish continuation and brings the support zone around 0.6200 into focus for bears.
Short
by CityIndex
2
GBPNZD GAINS AS NZD DECLINESAs China reaffirmed its commitment to its zero-corona strategy, dashed hopes for an economic revival that may increase global demand, the New Zealand currency declined below $0.59, erasing gains after a robust surge. China has said that it will continue to impose restrictions in the interim. Naturally, that raises the possibility of a possible adjustment as markets progressively reopen this week. As a result, everything is "volatile, reactive, and globally fluid. Officials from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand stated that, despite warning of potential downside risks to the global economy, the country's high inflation and tight labor market call for a cooling of demand. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand increased interest rates by half a percentage point in October, but markets now expect a greater increase of 75 basis points in November.
Long
by TradeyMarkets
AUD/NZD - pullback over? 1.10 back in focusAustralian CPI beat expectations by a long mile yesterday, as did inflation for New Zealand in their most recent report. But the key difference between Australia and New Zealand for currency traders to be aware of is their central banks. The RBNZ have been far more aggressive than the RBA - with the latter dropping to 25bp rate increases and their rate remaining relatively low compared with their peers. And whilst the Aussie and Kiwi benefitted from a weaker dollar yesterday and AUD was given a 'bump' following Australia's inflation report, the fact remains that the RBA are not as hawkish as the RBNZ. We’ve seen the desired pullback into a resistance cluster (lower trendline, 20/50 EMA and 1.1191 low) and a bearish pinbar has formed to suggest a swing high is in place. The RSI(2) reached overbought on Tuesday before turning lower yesterday, which backs up the bias of a potential swing high. The 200-day EMA / support zone just below 1.10 is now in focus for bears - and AUD/NZD is likely to be a tempting swing trade short whilst prices remain beneath yesterday's high.
Short
by CityIndex
2
AUD/NZD weakness as central bank policies divergeTo strip out the effects of the Fed we can take a look at the moves in AUD/NZD, both bolstered by risk-on sentiment. In this pair, the 25bps hike from the RBA is clearly seen as the bank underdelivering on its mandate to bring inflation back to its 2% target, a clear divergence from the RBNZ so far. The bank is due to meet on November 23rd and markets are suggesting we may see a 75bps hike this time around as inflation continued to tick higher in Q3. Similar to AUD/USD, AUD/NZD saw a spike higher on the 26th of October after the Q3 CPI data was released and rate hike odds grew in favour of 50bps. But the two central banks are starting to diverge in policy and therefore the New Zealand dollar is likely to remain dominant over the coming weeks unless we see a shift in stance from either side, whether it be in form of data or commentary from officials. The 10-year yield differential between them has also been widening which supports AUD/NZD lower and the fact that we have broken below the 200-day MA for the first time since January this year suggests the pair may continue to drop, potentially breaking below support at 1.0920.
by Capitalcom
1
Aussie extends losses ahead of RBA meetingAUD/USD is down for a third straight day. The Australian dollar is trading at 0.6395, down 0.24%. The RBA kicks off a busy week of central bank decisions when it meets on Tuesday. This will be followed by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday and the Bank of England on Thursday. The RBA has delivered a steep rate-tightening cycle this year and the upcoming meeting will be live, as it remains unclear what the RBA has in store for the markets. The markets have priced in a second-straight 25-basis point hike, which would bring the cash rate to 2.85%, its highest level since April 2013. There is, however, a 20% chance that the RBA will hike by a steep 50 basis points, given that the Bank's focus is on curbing inflation and the battle remains far from over. Headline inflation jumped to 7.3%, up from 6.1% in Q2, while core inflation hit 6.1%, up from 4.9%. The RBA expects headline inflation to peak at 7.5%, but other views have inflation rising as high as 8.0%. RBA Governor Lowe has caught the markets wrong-footed before - the 50 bp move in June was larger than expected, and the 25 bp in October was a surprise dovish pivot. This makes it tricky to predict the extent of the rate hike on Tuesday -  the markets are leaning heavily towards a 25 bp increase, but a 50 bp move should not be discounted. For the Federal Reserve, inflation is also a key concern. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the PCE core index, rose to 5.1% in September, up from 4.9% a month earlier. That cements a 75 bp rate hike on Wednesday, even though there has been talk of the Fed easing up due to concerns about the economic outlook. AUD/USD is testing support at 0.6403. The next support level is 0.6283 There is resistance at 0.6532 and 0.6652
by OANDA
The week ahead - AUD (31 October 2022)AUDUSD reversed from the 0.6520 high last week to sit just above the 0.64 support level, ending the 250pip swing last week. The RBA interest rate decision is due on Tuesday and the expectation is for a rate hike of 25bps taking interest rates from 2.60% to 2.85%. In the previous meeting, the RBA conveyed that it was looking to tune back on the scale of future rate increases. However, recent CPI data from Australia indicated that inflation was still increasing, which might force the RBA to rethink the decision to slow down on the rate hikes. From the previous RBA rate decision, the price spiked up but was not able to sustain a move higher, only to trade lower later into the week. (check the previous RBA interest rates analysis) Check the DXY analysis, if the DXY does strengthen due to the FOMC interest rate decision, the AUDUSD could first fluctuate along the 0.64 price level before trading lower towards the 0.6170 support level.
Short
by JinDao_Tai
1
EUR/USD eyes ECB rate decisionEUR/USD is in a holding pattern ahead of today's ECB rate meeting. In the European session, the euro is trading at 1.0068, down 0.16%. The ECB holds its policy meeting later today, amidst difficult economic conditions in the eurozone. Inflation jumped to 9.9% in September, up sharply from 9.1%. The manufacturing and services sectors are in decline and confidence levels are low. The markets have priced in a 0.75% hike and there has even been talk of a jumbo full-point increase. Could the ECB surprise with a lower-than-expected hike of 0.50%? Earlier this week, the Bank of Canada (BoC) and Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) both delivered smaller hikes than expected, at 0.50% and 0.25%, respectively.  The message from both central banks is that they are close to ending their rate-tightening cycles and expect inflation to peak in the next several months. Will the ECB follow suit? It's possible but unlikely. The ECB only entered the tightening game in July, and the current benchmark of 1.25% remains out-of-sync with inflation, which is close to double-digits and the ECB needs to be aggressive if it hopes to beat inflation. The benchmark rates are much higher in Canada (3.75%) and Australia (2.60%) and have slowed economic growth, while the ECB's low benchmark rate has not had the same effect. Still, the weak eurozone economy could tip into recession as a result of sharp rate hikes, which means that a 0.50% hike cannot be completely discounted. We can expect some movement from EUR/USD in response to the ECB decision - an increase of 0.75% or 1.00% will be bullish for the currency, while a 0.50% hike would disappoint investors and likely send the euro lower. There is resistance at 1.0095 and 1.0154 0.9924 and 0.9814 are the next support levels
by OANDA
AUD/USD might fall significantly to 2020 loweAustralian inflation surpassed estimates in the third quarter, reaching a 32-year high, and the Reserve Bank is expected to raise interest rates again to battle inflationary pressures. Rising rent and fuel prices were the primary causes of the reading being higher than expected, as Australia grappled with high borrowing rates and rising commodity prices. Food costs rose dramatically throughout the quarter due to a mix of supply chain issues and harvest-related adverse weather. According to the bank, it's trying to find a balance between limiting the negative consequences of high interest rates on the economy and controlling inflation. It hiked rates seven times this year from record lows and declared that future rate hikes will be data-driven. The pressure on AUD/USD is expected to continue. In light of this, Credit Suisse economists predict that the pair may plunge to a 2020 low of 0.5506. A steeper decrease in the AUD/USD exchange rate is anticipated. We anticipate a decline to the bottom from April 2020 at 0.6041/5978 and the 78.6% retracement of the 2020/21 upswing as long as medium-term momentum continues to be bearish. While another little halt is possible, a convincing break lower would increase the likelihood of a fall all the way to 0.5506, the 2020 bottom. "Any effort at a stronger move higher should be restrained at the sliding 55-day average of 0.6651."
Short
by TradeyMarkets
AUD/USD eyes job dataAUD/USD is considerably lower today, trading at 0.6273, down 0.57%. Australia releases employment data on Thursday, with the markets expecting that the report will show that the labour market remains robust. The economy is forecast to have created 25,000 jobs in September, following the 35,000 gain in August. Unemployment is expected to remain at 3.5%. The strong labour market has enabled the RBA to continue its sharp rate-tightening cycle, with the cash rate currently at 2.60%. The central bank plans to continue raising rates, as the focus is on curbing inflation, which came in at 6.8% in August. The October inflation report will be especially significant, as it will be released just days before the RBA meeting on November 1st (in addition to the quarterly CPI report, Australia has started releasing a monthly inflation release, but it covers only 70% of goods and services). Higher rates will curb inflation eventually, but the cost could be an economic recession. Already, households are straining their budgets as inflation remains red-hot and higher interest rates are increasing borrowing repayments. This will likely dampen consumer spending, a key driver of economic growth. The Australian dollar has hit hard times. Since August 1st, AUD/USD has plunged 550 points, as risk sentiment has taken a beating and the Federal Reserve's aggressive tightening has boosted the US dollar. China's economy has been struggling and the escalation of the Ukraine conflict, with no end in sight, has sapped the appetite for risk-related currencies like the Australian dollar. With the Fed likely to deliver more oversize rate hikes and China and Ukraine likely to remain hotspots, the outlook does not look bright for the Aussie. AUD/USD faces resistance at 0.6331 and 0.6460 0.6250 is under pressure in support. Below, there is support at 0.6121
by OANDA
AUD/USD rises to resistance ahead of RBA meetingThe RBA are expected to hike interest rates by 50bp at 14:30 today and take the cash rate to 2.85%. From here we suspect they’ll revert to 25bp hikes with the potential to pause in December or January. The Aussie remains within an established downtrend and within a wider bearish channel on the 4-hour chart. It appears it is within the third wave of a 3-wave correction, with the 50/100 EMA’s and monthly pivot point nearby for potential resistance levels. Should we see evidence of a swing high then then 0.6300 – 0.6360 comes into focus. Note the RSI(2) is recently moved over 90 to indicate the potential for a near-term high.
Short
by CityIndex
Today’s Notable Sentiment ShiftsAUD – The Australian dollar lost ground on Tuesday, having rallied sharply overnight, after the Reserve Bank of Australia delivered a smaller-than expected rate hike, even as central banks elsewhere are raising rates aggressively. The Commonwealth Bank of Australia, which had predicted the 25 basis points move, expects the central bank to hike by another 25 bps in November before pausing. They note: “From that point, our central scenario has the RBA on hold as they give themselves time to assess the lagged impact of rate rises on the Australian economy.”
by thunderpips
2
Short AUD/USD -RBA Interest rate hike only 25BP, won't beat Fed.As seen in the video - I am short the Aussie Dollar against the almighty greenback. The RBA needs to get more aggressive in hiking interest rates, in order to compete with the Fed in the US. The Dollar USD will continue to be strong against all other currencies as they raise interest rates aggressively and be the defense trade in these uncertain times. Although other currencies will fight to not go lower against the divergence in interest rates against the USD.
Short
by SmartMoneyTV
2
AUD/USD rebounds ahead of RBAAUD/USD has started the trading week with strong gains. The Aussie is trading at 0.6447, up 0.67%. Is the nasty slide over? The Australian dollar is coming off a third straight losing week. September was a disaster, as AUD/USD plummeted 6.4%. The escalation in the war in Ukraine, which has sapped risk sentiment, and the aggressive Federal Reserve have dampened market appetite for the risk-related Australian dollar. The RBA meets on Tuesday, and Bank members are widely expected to deliver a fifth consecutive hike of 50 basis points, which would take the benchmark rate to 2.85%. After that, the RBA may lower gears to 25bp moves. Governor Lowe has signaled that he would like to shift to 25bp hikes at some point, which would help guide the economy to a soft landing and avoid choking off economic growth. However, there is no indication that inflation has peaked, and soaring inflation was the primary reason for the RBA's sharp rate-hike cycle. The next inflation report will be released in late October, with the RBA November meeting just one week later. It's a safe bet that the size of the rate hike in November will depend to a large extent on that inflation report. In the US, the Fed may make a U-turn in policy before the end of the year, depending on the strength of the economy. The data can be conflicting, which was the case on Friday. The Fed's preferred inflation indicator, the Core PCE Index, rose 4.9% in August, up from 4.7% in July and above the consensus of 4.7%. At the same time, the University of Michigan sentiment index showed that inflation expectations for 5-10 years ticked lower to 2.8%, down from 2.7%. In the meantime, the Fed's hawkish stance has fuelled the US dollar's upswing. AUD/USD has support at 0.6450 and 0.6363 There is resistance at 0.6598 and 0.6685
by OANDA
AUD/USD dips after RBA minutesThe Australian dollar is in negative territory today. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6706, down 0.30% on the day. The RBA minutes of the September 6th meeting didn't shed any new light on the central bank's rate policy, and the Australian dollar's response has been muted. The minutes reiterated the message that the markets have already heard from Governor Lowe - additional rate hikes are coming, but the size of the hikes will depend on inflation and growth. The minutes noted that rates are approaching "normal settings". At the meeting, members argued over whether to raise rates by 25bp or 50bp - in the end, the Bank went for the latter option, bringing the cash rate to 2.35%. With no inflation or employment data prior to the October meeting, the RBA may still be up in the air with regard to the size of the rate hike right up to decision time. This will make for an interesting meeting which could trigger volatility from the Australian dollar. There are arguments to be made on both sides. Inflation rose to 6.1% in the second quarter, and as the RBA's number one priority, Lowe may want to keep the pedal on the floor until there are clear signs that inflation is moving lower. On the other hand, inflation expectations have slowed over three straight months, a possible indication that inflation may have peaked or will do so shortly. Lowe would very much like to guide the economy to a soft landing, which would be facilitated by a modest 0.25% hike. The Federal Reserve meets on Wednesday, with the markets expecting a 0.75% hike. There is about a 20% chance of a massive full-point hike. The markets will be listening carefully to the Fed's guidance - if it is hawkish, the US dollar should respond with broad gains. AUD/USD has support at 0.6623 and 0.6523 There is resistance at 0.6769 and 0.6869
by OANDA
Aussie Remains Bearish After RBA Policy Meeting Markets were slow at the start of a new trading week because of the holiday in UK, but this will be expected to change as speculators wait on CB policy decisions. RBA meeting was the first event where members judged that a further increase in interest rates would help bring inflation back to target and create a more sustainable balance of demand and supply in the Australian economy. They discussed the arguments around raising interest rates by either 25 basis points or 50 basis points. They see rates coming back to normal, meaning that sooner or later speculators could see this as bearish for the Aussie. From an Elliott wave perspective, we see pair in a deep complex correction, currently in B of Y, so there can be more weakness coming soon, especially if stocks will continue to weaken this week on the hawkish FOMC decision. So short-term pair can stay bearish but from a longer-term perspective, we assume that the pair can find a support near 0.64-0.65, possibly later this year.
by ew-forecast
AUD/USD edges lower ahead of RBA decisionThe Australian dollar has started the week with slight losses. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6798, down 0.19%. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on Tuesday, with investors unclear as to the size of the next rate move. The markets have priced in a 50 basis point move at 68%, with a modest 25 bp increase at 32%. This means that the RBA will likely deliver a fourth straight rate 50bp rate hike, which would bring the cash rate to 2.35%. The RBA has been waging a battle against rising inflation, which rose to 6.1% in Q2, up from 5.1% in Q1. At the July meeting, the Australian dollar lost ground despite a 0.50% rate hike, and this could be repeated on Tuesday, especially if the RBA opts for a small 0.25% hike. The central bank has its hands full with rising inflation and a slowing economy. Policy makers are hoping to avoid a recession and guide the economy to a soft landing, but the central bank, like the Fed, has made clear that its paramount goal is to curb inflation and avoid inflation expectations from becoming anchored. Following the RBA decision, Australia releases GDP for the second quarter. The market consensus stands at 3.5%, which would be an improvement on the 3.3% gain in Q1. Australia recorded a record trade surplus of $A45 billion in Q2, and this should be reflected in a higher GDP. The Aussie remains constrained by weak risk appetite, as the energy crisis in Europe took a turn for the worse on the weekend. The Nord Stream 1 pipeline, which is the main conduit for Russian gas to Europe, failed to reopen on Saturday after three days of maintenance. Russia has now closed the pipeline indefinitely, citing a malfunctioning turbine. Germany is skeptical, to put it mildly, and fears are rising that Moscow is again weaponising energy exports to Europe, which could result in a full-blown energy shortage this winter. AUD/USD faces resistance at 0.6846 and 0.6922 There is support at 0.6737 and 0.6661
by OANDA
#AUDNZD: Keep an eye on the basing pattern here...The weekly down trend signal in $AUDNZD expires next week, this means a potential reversal can be setting up. At the same time, the daily chart is basing and can flash a bullish signal in a day or more. I'll be watching this pair closely in the coming days, after today's close in particular. The recent bout of #NZD strength courtesy of RNBZ's hawkishness has droven the cross pair too far in my opinion and is bound to mean revert substantially, as we recover from peak pessimism when it comes to Australia and China... Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
3
Aussie higher ahead of RBA decisionThe Australian dollar has posted strong gains today. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7030, up 0.57% on the day. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on Tuesday and is expected to deliver a third straight hike of 0.50%. This would bring the Cash Rate to 1.85%. The markets have priced in a 50bp increase at 0.75%. The central bank continues to grapple with rising inflation, with CPI in the second quarter rising to 6.1%, up sharply from 5.1% in Q1. Australian Treasurer Chalmers told parliament on Thursday that the government expects inflation to peak at 7.75% in Q4, and will gradually ease in 2023 and fall to 2.75% in 2024. If Chalmers' number crunching is accurate, then the cost of living crisis will worsen before it improves and the central bank will likely have to keep tightening, with plenty more inflation to come.  Chalmers noted that the country's biggest headwinds are surging inflation and slowing global growth. The government revised lower its GDP forecast for 2021-22 to 3.75%, down from 4.5%, and the 2022-2023 forecast from 3.5% to 3.0%. The RBA has a delicate task of raising rates to curb inflation but not slowing the economy to the extent that it tips into a recession. The labour market remains robust, an important indication that the economy is strong enough to withstand further rate hikes. Tuesday's rate hike, if 0.50% as expected, is unlikely to impact on the Australian dollar, except perhaps for some short-lived reaction after the rate announcement, as external factors are the main driver behind the Aussie's movement. AUD/USD is putting pressure on resistance at 0.7056. Above, there is resistance at 0.7120 There is support at 0.6968 and 6904
by OANDA
Aussie shrugs after inflation reportThe Australian dollar has edged higher on Wednesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6950 in European trade. Australia's inflation rate accelerated in the second quarter, but the market reaction was muted, as the 6.1% gain was a notch below the estimate of 6.2%. Inflation still remains the RBA's number one problem, as CPI jumped from 5.1% in Q1. With inflation coming in a bit less than forecast, RBA hiking expectations have been pared lower, which briefly sent the Australian dollar lower. The key question of "how much, how fast" the RBA will increase rates depends not just on how high inflation is running, but on the resilience of the economy to withstand ever higher rates. The labour market remains robust, with the unemployment rate falling to 3.5% in June, down from 3.8% in May. The trade surplus jumped in May and the manufacturing sector continues to show strong expansion. At the same time, the global growth outlook is uncertain and fears of a slowdown in China are weighing on risk sentiment which could prove to be a major headwind for the Australian dollar. The minutes of the RBA July meeting stated that policymakers discussed the neutral rate (which is neither expansionary nor contractionary) and the 1.35% cash rate was "well below" that. Governor Lowe has often quoted 2.5% as around neutral, leaving little doubt that the RBA plans more hikes in the second half of the year. All eyes are on the Federal Reserve meeting later today. The markets are expecting a 75bp move, but there is an outside chance of a massive 100bp, as the Fed continues its epic battle with inflation, which accelerated to 9.1% in June, up from 8.6% in May. If, as expected, the Fed delivers a second-straight 75bp move, it will be interesting to see if the US dollar gains any ground or will the reaction be muted. This will depend on what Fed Chair Powell has to say and the tone of his remarks. There is resistance at 0.7005 and 0.7085 0.6897 is providing support, followed by 0.6817
by OANDA
Australian dollar rises, RBA minutes nextThe Australian dollar has started the trading week with strong gains, extending the upswing from Friday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6835, up 0.62% on the day. Market risk sentiment has strengthened, courtesy of better-than-expected data out of the US on Friday. Headline retail sales and core retail sales both posted a gain of 1.0% MoM in June, above the forecast and an improvement from the May numbers. As well, UoM Consumer Sentiment improved slightly to 51.0, above the consensus for a contraction at 49.0. This has boosted the Australian dollar, a bellwether of risk appetite. The financial markets were pleased with US retail sales, which points to consumers' willing to spend despite the bite that higher inflation is taking out of disposable incomes. At the same time, strong consumer spending paves the way for a massive 100bp hike from the Federal Reserve next week, as strong US data indicates that the economy is strong enough to withstand higher rates. There is a pre-meeting blackout of the FOMC ahead of next Thursday's meeting, but we can still expect plenty of discussion about whether the Fed will deliver a 75 bp or 100 bp increase. The more likely scenario is a 75bp move, but the Fed has surprised before, and a 100bp move is certainly on the table. The RBA is also in the midst of a rate-tightening cycle, but the cash rate is only at 1.35%, which won't make a significant dent on surging inflation. The central bank is likely to continue tightening throughout the remainder of 2022. The minutes from the July meeting will be released on Tuesday, and investors will be looking for clues as to how aggressive the RBA plans to be as it tries to balance hiking rates without choking economic activity and causing a recession. There is resistance at 0.6871 and 0.6949 0.6776 is providing support, followed by 0.6698
by OANDA