Get started

RBA

Today’s Notable Sentiment ShiftsAUD – The Australian dollar lost ground on Tuesday, having rallied sharply overnight, after the Reserve Bank of Australia delivered a smaller-than expected rate hike, even as central banks elsewhere are raising rates aggressively. The Commonwealth Bank of Australia, which had predicted the 25 basis points move, expects the central bank to hike by another 25 bps in November before pausing. They note: “From that point, our central scenario has the RBA on hold as they give themselves time to assess the lagged impact of rate rises on the Australian economy.”
by thunderpips
2
Short AUD/USD -RBA Interest rate hike only 25BP, won't beat Fed.As seen in the video - I am short the Aussie Dollar against the almighty greenback. The RBA needs to get more aggressive in hiking interest rates, in order to compete with the Fed in the US. The Dollar USD will continue to be strong against all other currencies as they raise interest rates aggressively and be the defense trade in these uncertain times. Although other currencies will fight to not go lower against the divergence in interest rates against the USD.
Short
by SmartMoneyTV
2
AUD/USD rebounds ahead of RBAAUD/USD has started the trading week with strong gains. The Aussie is trading at 0.6447, up 0.67%. Is the nasty slide over? The Australian dollar is coming off a third straight losing week. September was a disaster, as AUD/USD plummeted 6.4%. The escalation in the war in Ukraine, which has sapped risk sentiment, and the aggressive Federal Reserve have dampened market appetite for the risk-related Australian dollar. The RBA meets on Tuesday, and Bank members are widely expected to deliver a fifth consecutive hike of 50 basis points, which would take the benchmark rate to 2.85%. After that, the RBA may lower gears to 25bp moves. Governor Lowe has signaled that he would like to shift to 25bp hikes at some point, which would help guide the economy to a soft landing and avoid choking off economic growth. However, there is no indication that inflation has peaked, and soaring inflation was the primary reason for the RBA's sharp rate-hike cycle. The next inflation report will be released in late October, with the RBA November meeting just one week later. It's a safe bet that the size of the rate hike in November will depend to a large extent on that inflation report. In the US, the Fed may make a U-turn in policy before the end of the year, depending on the strength of the economy. The data can be conflicting, which was the case on Friday. The Fed's preferred inflation indicator, the Core PCE Index, rose 4.9% in August, up from 4.7% in July and above the consensus of 4.7%. At the same time, the University of Michigan sentiment index showed that inflation expectations for 5-10 years ticked lower to 2.8%, down from 2.7%. In the meantime, the Fed's hawkish stance has fuelled the US dollar's upswing. AUD/USD has support at 0.6450 and 0.6363 There is resistance at 0.6598 and 0.6685
by OANDA
AUD/USD dips after RBA minutesThe Australian dollar is in negative territory today. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6706, down 0.30% on the day. The RBA minutes of the September 6th meeting didn't shed any new light on the central bank's rate policy, and the Australian dollar's response has been muted. The minutes reiterated the message that the markets have already heard from Governor Lowe - additional rate hikes are coming, but the size of the hikes will depend on inflation and growth. The minutes noted that rates are approaching "normal settings". At the meeting, members argued over whether to raise rates by 25bp or 50bp - in the end, the Bank went for the latter option, bringing the cash rate to 2.35%. With no inflation or employment data prior to the October meeting, the RBA may still be up in the air with regard to the size of the rate hike right up to decision time. This will make for an interesting meeting which could trigger volatility from the Australian dollar. There are arguments to be made on both sides. Inflation rose to 6.1% in the second quarter, and as the RBA's number one priority, Lowe may want to keep the pedal on the floor until there are clear signs that inflation is moving lower. On the other hand, inflation expectations have slowed over three straight months, a possible indication that inflation may have peaked or will do so shortly. Lowe would very much like to guide the economy to a soft landing, which would be facilitated by a modest 0.25% hike. The Federal Reserve meets on Wednesday, with the markets expecting a 0.75% hike. There is about a 20% chance of a massive full-point hike. The markets will be listening carefully to the Fed's guidance - if it is hawkish, the US dollar should respond with broad gains. AUD/USD has support at 0.6623 and 0.6523 There is resistance at 0.6769 and 0.6869
by OANDA
Aussie Remains Bearish After RBA Policy Meeting Markets were slow at the start of a new trading week because of the holiday in UK, but this will be expected to change as speculators wait on CB policy decisions. RBA meeting was the first event where members judged that a further increase in interest rates would help bring inflation back to target and create a more sustainable balance of demand and supply in the Australian economy. They discussed the arguments around raising interest rates by either 25 basis points or 50 basis points. They see rates coming back to normal, meaning that sooner or later speculators could see this as bearish for the Aussie. From an Elliott wave perspective, we see pair in a deep complex correction, currently in B of Y, so there can be more weakness coming soon, especially if stocks will continue to weaken this week on the hawkish FOMC decision. So short-term pair can stay bearish but from a longer-term perspective, we assume that the pair can find a support near 0.64-0.65, possibly later this year.
by ew-forecast
AUD/USD edges lower ahead of RBA decisionThe Australian dollar has started the week with slight losses. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6798, down 0.19%. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on Tuesday, with investors unclear as to the size of the next rate move. The markets have priced in a 50 basis point move at 68%, with a modest 25 bp increase at 32%. This means that the RBA will likely deliver a fourth straight rate 50bp rate hike, which would bring the cash rate to 2.35%. The RBA has been waging a battle against rising inflation, which rose to 6.1% in Q2, up from 5.1% in Q1. At the July meeting, the Australian dollar lost ground despite a 0.50% rate hike, and this could be repeated on Tuesday, especially if the RBA opts for a small 0.25% hike. The central bank has its hands full with rising inflation and a slowing economy. Policy makers are hoping to avoid a recession and guide the economy to a soft landing, but the central bank, like the Fed, has made clear that its paramount goal is to curb inflation and avoid inflation expectations from becoming anchored. Following the RBA decision, Australia releases GDP for the second quarter. The market consensus stands at 3.5%, which would be an improvement on the 3.3% gain in Q1. Australia recorded a record trade surplus of $A45 billion in Q2, and this should be reflected in a higher GDP. The Aussie remains constrained by weak risk appetite, as the energy crisis in Europe took a turn for the worse on the weekend. The Nord Stream 1 pipeline, which is the main conduit for Russian gas to Europe, failed to reopen on Saturday after three days of maintenance. Russia has now closed the pipeline indefinitely, citing a malfunctioning turbine. Germany is skeptical, to put it mildly, and fears are rising that Moscow is again weaponising energy exports to Europe, which could result in a full-blown energy shortage this winter. AUD/USD faces resistance at 0.6846 and 0.6922 There is support at 0.6737 and 0.6661
by OANDA
#AUDNZD: Keep an eye on the basing pattern here...The weekly down trend signal in $AUDNZD expires next week, this means a potential reversal can be setting up. At the same time, the daily chart is basing and can flash a bullish signal in a day or more. I'll be watching this pair closely in the coming days, after today's close in particular. The recent bout of #NZD strength courtesy of RNBZ's hawkishness has droven the cross pair too far in my opinion and is bound to mean revert substantially, as we recover from peak pessimism when it comes to Australia and China... Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
3
Aussie higher ahead of RBA decisionThe Australian dollar has posted strong gains today. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7030, up 0.57% on the day. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on Tuesday and is expected to deliver a third straight hike of 0.50%. This would bring the Cash Rate to 1.85%. The markets have priced in a 50bp increase at 0.75%. The central bank continues to grapple with rising inflation, with CPI in the second quarter rising to 6.1%, up sharply from 5.1% in Q1. Australian Treasurer Chalmers told parliament on Thursday that the government expects inflation to peak at 7.75% in Q4, and will gradually ease in 2023 and fall to 2.75% in 2024. If Chalmers' number crunching is accurate, then the cost of living crisis will worsen before it improves and the central bank will likely have to keep tightening, with plenty more inflation to come.  Chalmers noted that the country's biggest headwinds are surging inflation and slowing global growth. The government revised lower its GDP forecast for 2021-22 to 3.75%, down from 4.5%, and the 2022-2023 forecast from 3.5% to 3.0%. The RBA has a delicate task of raising rates to curb inflation but not slowing the economy to the extent that it tips into a recession. The labour market remains robust, an important indication that the economy is strong enough to withstand further rate hikes. Tuesday's rate hike, if 0.50% as expected, is unlikely to impact on the Australian dollar, except perhaps for some short-lived reaction after the rate announcement, as external factors are the main driver behind the Aussie's movement. AUD/USD is putting pressure on resistance at 0.7056. Above, there is resistance at 0.7120 There is support at 0.6968 and 6904
by OANDA
Aussie shrugs after inflation reportThe Australian dollar has edged higher on Wednesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6950 in European trade. Australia's inflation rate accelerated in the second quarter, but the market reaction was muted, as the 6.1% gain was a notch below the estimate of 6.2%. Inflation still remains the RBA's number one problem, as CPI jumped from 5.1% in Q1. With inflation coming in a bit less than forecast, RBA hiking expectations have been pared lower, which briefly sent the Australian dollar lower. The key question of "how much, how fast" the RBA will increase rates depends not just on how high inflation is running, but on the resilience of the economy to withstand ever higher rates. The labour market remains robust, with the unemployment rate falling to 3.5% in June, down from 3.8% in May. The trade surplus jumped in May and the manufacturing sector continues to show strong expansion. At the same time, the global growth outlook is uncertain and fears of a slowdown in China are weighing on risk sentiment which could prove to be a major headwind for the Australian dollar. The minutes of the RBA July meeting stated that policymakers discussed the neutral rate (which is neither expansionary nor contractionary) and the 1.35% cash rate was "well below" that. Governor Lowe has often quoted 2.5% as around neutral, leaving little doubt that the RBA plans more hikes in the second half of the year. All eyes are on the Federal Reserve meeting later today. The markets are expecting a 75bp move, but there is an outside chance of a massive 100bp, as the Fed continues its epic battle with inflation, which accelerated to 9.1% in June, up from 8.6% in May. If, as expected, the Fed delivers a second-straight 75bp move, it will be interesting to see if the US dollar gains any ground or will the reaction be muted. This will depend on what Fed Chair Powell has to say and the tone of his remarks. There is resistance at 0.7005 and 0.7085 0.6897 is providing support, followed by 0.6817
by OANDA
Australian dollar rises, RBA minutes nextThe Australian dollar has started the trading week with strong gains, extending the upswing from Friday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6835, up 0.62% on the day. Market risk sentiment has strengthened, courtesy of better-than-expected data out of the US on Friday. Headline retail sales and core retail sales both posted a gain of 1.0% MoM in June, above the forecast and an improvement from the May numbers. As well, UoM Consumer Sentiment improved slightly to 51.0, above the consensus for a contraction at 49.0. This has boosted the Australian dollar, a bellwether of risk appetite. The financial markets were pleased with US retail sales, which points to consumers' willing to spend despite the bite that higher inflation is taking out of disposable incomes. At the same time, strong consumer spending paves the way for a massive 100bp hike from the Federal Reserve next week, as strong US data indicates that the economy is strong enough to withstand higher rates. There is a pre-meeting blackout of the FOMC ahead of next Thursday's meeting, but we can still expect plenty of discussion about whether the Fed will deliver a 75 bp or 100 bp increase. The more likely scenario is a 75bp move, but the Fed has surprised before, and a 100bp move is certainly on the table. The RBA is also in the midst of a rate-tightening cycle, but the cash rate is only at 1.35%, which won't make a significant dent on surging inflation. The central bank is likely to continue tightening throughout the remainder of 2022. The minutes from the July meeting will be released on Tuesday, and investors will be looking for clues as to how aggressive the RBA plans to be as it tries to balance hiking rates without choking economic activity and causing a recession. There is resistance at 0.6871 and 0.6949 0.6776 is providing support, followed by 0.6698
by OANDA
Aussie edges up after strong US retail salesThe week wrapped up on a high note, as June US retail sales beat expectations. The headline and core readings both accelerated in June, with solid gains of 1.0%. This indicates that US consumers are still spending despite the toll that higher inflation and higher rates are taking on disposable income. The strong retail sales report will raise expectations that the Fed will be content to raise rates "only" by 0.75%, rather than a full 1.00% at the next meeting. When the markets have a chance to digest the numbers on Monday, risk appetite will likely rise, which could push the US dollar lower. China's economy slowed down in the second quarter, which is no real surprise given the Covid-zero policy which resulted in mass lockdowns. The economy posted a small gain of 0.4% YoY, missing the estimate of 1.0% (4.8% prior). On an annualized basis, GDP contracted by 2.6%, worse than the forecast of -1.5% (+1.4% prior). These weak numbers were offset by a strong bounce in retail sales, which jumped 3.10% in June, crushing the estimate of -0.3% (-6.7% prior). If China can avoid further lockdowns in key cities such as Shanghai, we can expect GDP to rebound in Q3. The health of China's economy is critical for Australia, as China is its biggest trading partner. An excellent employment report earlier this week on Thursday has raised concerns that the RBA may need to accelerate its rate-tightening cycle and consider larger rate increases. The economy gained 88.8 thousand new jobs, blowing the estimate of 30.0 thousand out of the water. As well, the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, down from 3.9% and below the 3.8% estimate. The RBA has been raising rates aggressively, but even so, the cash rate is still at a low 1.35%, and clearly the RBA will have to hike sharply to make a dent in inflation, which is running at 5.1%. We'll get a look at CPI for the second quarter at the end of July. AUD/USD is putting pressure on resistance at 0.6782. Next, there is resistance at 0.6839 There is support at 0.6706 and 0.6649
by OANDA
Aussie slammed after RBA hikeThe Australian dollar is sharply lower on Tuesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6796, down 1.0% on the day. The RBA delivered a 0.50% rate hike for a second straight month, bringing the cash rate to 1.35%. The central bank has now hiked by 1.25% since May, marking the fastest series of moves since 1994. This aggressive stance didn't do anything for the volatile Australian dollar, which has plunged over 1% today. There had been some uncertainty as to whether the RBA would hike by 0.25% or 0.50%. However, when Governor Lowe warned that inflation could hit 7% by the end of the year, the markets priced in a 0.50% move. The Australian dollar's sharp fall is surprising, as I would have expected the 0.50% hike to provide the currency with a short-lived jump. The Aussie's woes appear to be part of a risk-off move in the currency markets, with the US dollar posting broad gains today. The RBA's 0.50% hike is a vote of confidence in the Australian economy by the RBA, as Lowe is betting that the economy is resilient enough to withstand a sharp increase in rates. Employment is at a low rate of 3.9%, job vacancies are at record highs and consumer demand remains robust. The housing sector has been hit by higher borrowing costs, which will likely dampen household spending in the coming months. Lowe has admitted that there is a "narrow path" between tightening enough to curb inflation or being too aggressive and causing a recession. Attention will now shift to the Australian inflation report for Q1, which will be released in the last week of July. Inflation is expected to continue to accelerate, with a peak in inflation remaining elusive. The markets have priced in another 0.50% hike in August and expect the cash rate to hit 3% or even higher by the end of 2022. AUD/USD is testing support at 0.6849, followed by support at 0.6732 There is resistance at 0.6933 and 0.7050
by OANDA
1
Will the RBA hike boost the Aussie?We are seeing plenty of volatility from the Australian dollar. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6883 in European trade, up 0.98% on the day. The Australian dollar has recovered most of its losses from Friday, when the pair slipped 1.28%. All eyes are on the RBA, which holds its monthly policy meeting on Tuesday. The meeting is live, as it's not clear if the Bank will raise rates by 25bp or 50bp. The most likely scenario is a 50-bp move, with the cash rate at a low 0.85%. A supersize 75bp move is a possibility but unlikely, and would likely give the Aussie a short-lived jump - the markets remain jittery in the current environment which will make it difficult for AUD/USD to claw back to the symbolic 70 level. Inflation remains the RBA's paramount concern. The inflation rate of 5.1% is among the lowest in the OECD and well below the UK and US, which are running close to double digits. Still, there is no sign of Australia's inflation peaking, and that has the RBA worried about inflation expectations becoming unanchored. There are no indications of a recession, but GDP in Q1 slowed significantly to 0.8%, compared to a robust 3.6% in the fourth quarter. If the RBA continues to deliver 50bp rate hikes, economic activity will slow and negative growth would become a very real possibility. US markets are closed for a holiday, but things will heat up during the week, with the FOMC releasing the minutes of its June meeting. The Fed appears intent on continuing to raise rates aggressively, with Fed Chair Powell saying last week that curbing inflation was his primary task right now. Last week Powell said it was important to prevent inflation expectations from becoming anchored, adding that restoring price stability was paramount, even if that mean negative growth. On Friday, the Atlanta Fed GDP tracker indicated that the US is likely already in a recession, with the economy contracting by 2.1% in Q2, which together with the Q1 decline of 1.6% would mean the economy is in recession. AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6849. Above, there is resistance at 0.6933 There is support at 0.6732 and 0.6648
by OANDA
Aussie rises ahead of retail salesThe Australian dollar is in positive territory on Tuesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6944 in European trade, up 0.28% on the day. Australia releases retail sales for May on Wednesday. Retail sales is the primary gauge of consumer spending, and the markets are braced for a weak reading of 0.3%, following a 0.9% gain in April. Consumers are holding tightly onto their purse strings, as interest rates are on the rise and the cost-of-living crisis is intensifying. A deceleration in retail sales could cause slowdown fears and push the Australian dollar lower. The markets are already nervous about an economic slowdown, with the RBA in the midst of its rate-tightening cycle. The central bank surprised the markets with a super-size 0.50% hike earlier in June, and the RBA could deliver another 0.50% increase at next week's meeting, or stick with a modest 0.25% rise. The cash rate is still relatively low at 0.85%, and the Bank will have to raise rates aggressively in order to curb soaring inflation. On Friday, Governor Lowe stated that there were no plans to raise rates by a massive 0.75% hike at the upcoming meeting. This of course does not rule out the possibility of such a move at later meetings. Lowe suggested last week that wage growth should be about 3.5%, half of the 7% inflation rate that the RBA is projecting by year's end. This would essentially mean a pay cut for workers and could be the recipe for labour unrest if workers demand higher wages to compensate for soaring inflation. Wage growth has been very modest and is not a cause of the jump in inflation; rather, the war in Ukraine and supply chain disruptions, notably in China, have been the primary drivers of inflation. AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6936, followed by resistance at 0.7004 There is support at 0.6877 and 0.6809
by OANDA
RBA and China Are Bullish For Aussie- Elliott wavesAussie is trying to wake up as RBA started hiking rates while China is going out of lockdowns in June, so seems like wave C is already in place, unless this is still a higher degree leg A from the 0.7661 highs. Well, at this stage it's too early to confirm any new long-term bottom, but at least in the short-term we should be aware of more upside after recently broken trendline resistance in the first leg, so more upside can be coming after pullback. Support is at 0.7/0.7030 which can be also a base of a right shoulder on 4h chart. Also, HSI has made a nice turn up recently which can be positive for the Aussie.
Long
by ew-forecast
Australian dollar dips as rate rally fizzlesThe Australian dollar has reversed directions on Wednesday and is slightly lower. AUD/USD is trading at 0.7209, down 0.28% on the day. The RBA surprised the markets with a supersize rate hike of 50bp yesterday, double what most analysts had predicted. The Australian dollar responded with a swing of close to 100 points and held onto half of those gains. However, any hopes of a sustained post-RBA rally proved to be short-lived, as the Aussie has dipped lower today. The RBA left no doubt that it plans to be aggressive in its battle to curb soaring inflation, and we could see further 50bp hikes down the road if inflation remains stubbornly high. However, the central bank does run the risk of appearing to be in panic mode with such a large hike and runs the risk of losing credibility if inflation doesn't peak soon. The RBA's aggressive hike shows that it "means business", but the rate statement didn't come across as particularly hawkish. Policy makers noted that inflation was higher than expected and was projected to accelerate before declining in 2023. The statement said that the rate hike would contribute to inflation falling "over time", which certainly doesn't provide much insight - perhaps the RBA is playing a wait-and-see game when it comes to forecasting when inflation will peak. Yesterday's massive hike was the RBA's largest increase since 2000. Still, it's worth noting that the cash rate is only at 0.85%, which means that the RBA's rate-tightening cycle is in an early stage and has plenty more room to run. Unless inflation dips dramatically, we can expect the RBA to tighten by around another 100 points by year's end and continue into 2023. This aggressive tightening scheme will help maintain the US/Australia rate differential, with the Fed also in the midst of a rate-tightening cycle. AUD/USD is testing support at 0.7211, followed by support at 0.7138 There is resistance at 0.7280 and 0.7353
by OANDA
AUDJPY BULLS IN CONTROL AS RATES RAISEDThe Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has adopted a hawkish stance on interest rates. The RBA raised its OCR by 50 basis points to 0.85 percent, above the 25 basis point rise predicted. In April, the Australian economy added only 4k jobs, compared to the 30k predicted. As a result, market participants saw a 25 basis point rate increase as merely tightening monetary policy. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) ultra-easy monetary policy will continue to haunt the yen bulls. BOJ Kuroda's intervention fails despite the fact that the pair is overbought. Haruhiko Kuroda, Governor of the Bank of Japan (BOJ), interjected verbally, stating that the large yen depreciation in a short period of time is detrimental to the Japanese economy.
Long
by TradeyMarkets
5
A Kangaroo Hop!Things seem to be going well down under. With Iron Ore prices jumping close to 8% last week, Australia, the largest exporter of the raw material stands to benefit greatly. In 2021, Iron Ore exports totaled close to US$120 billion. This contributes greatly to the demand side pressure on the Australian dollar. Looking at the charts, the AUDUSD pair is currently trading at the bottom of the channel support on the 1-hr time frame. With the 200-period moving average right below current levels, we think downside resistance will prove strong and prices will bounce off the bottom of the rising channel quickly. Stay tuned to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting tomorrow and time your entry there! Assuming no surprises and the technical supports are intact, we favor the long side for the AUDUSD pair. Entry at 0.7190, stop below 0.712. Targets are 0.7346 and 0.7460. Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios.
CME:6A1!Long
by inspirante
8
Aussie slips after strong NFP reportThe Australian dollar has reversed directions on Friday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.7225, down 0.55% on the day. US nonfarm payrolls are traditionally the highlight of the week, but the Ukraine war, spiralling inflation and surging oil prices have taken up much of the market's attention. This has reduced some of the hype around recent NFP releases, but they still have the potential to move markets. The May nonfarm payrolls report outperformed expectations, with a gain of 390 thousand, above the forecast of 325 thousand. We'll have to give the markets some time to digest the reading, but it's certainly possible that the strong numbers will see investors price in more Fed tightening, which will give the US dollar a boost, especially against the risk-sensitive Australian dollar. AUD/USD has already reacted to the NFP with considerable losses. It will be interesting to see how Fed policy members react to the nonfarm payrolls release, and whether some Fed members call for the Fed to increase the pace or extent of tightening. The Reserve Bank of Australia holds its policy meeting on Tuesday and will continue its rate-tightening cycle. The current benchmark rate is only 0.35% and the Bank is widely expected to hike by 0.35%, which would represent a compromise between a 0.25% and a 0.50% move. With inflation continuing to accelerate, the RBA is expected to raise rates to 3% or even higher, which means that we will likely see the RBA raising rates throughout the second half of the year and into 2023. AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.7207. Above, there is resistance at 0.7252 There is support at 0.7121 and 0.7076
by OANDA
AUD drifting ahead of retail salesThe Australian dollar started the week with gains of close to one percent but has been mostly drifting since then. AUD/USD is trading quietly, just below the 0.71 line. It hasn't been a very good week on the Australian release front, raising concerns that the economy may be slowing down. Manufacturing and Services PMIs both slowed in May, while Construction Work Done and Private New Capital Expenditure both recorded declines in the first quarter. The week winds up with April Retail Sales on Friday, which is projected to slow to 0.9%, after a 1.6% in March. Australia releases GDP next week, and an underperforming release would likely dampen sentiment towards the Australian dollar. The new Labour government is rolling up its sleeves after its election victory and getting to work. Both Labour and the defeated Liberal party made campaign promises to review RBA operations, including how it targets inflation. The new Treasurer, Jim Chalmers, says he will announce his findings shortly. Chalmers said on Wednesday that he had inherited "very tricky" economic conditions, including rising inflation and interest rates, and a massive trillion-dollar debt. The FOMC minutes didn't contain any surprises, which actually soothed nervous markets. Investors have become increasingly concerned that the US economy might tip into recession. Recent data, such as housing, has been weak, while at the same time that the Federal Reserve has embarked on an aggressive rate-hike cycle aimed at slowing the economy and containing inflation. With inflation still not showing signs of peaking, there have been calls from some Fed officials to deliver a super-super-size 75 bps hike. To the relief of the markets, the minutes appeared to put to rest such a drastic move, as the Fed signalled that it will hike by 50 bps in June and July, followed by a pause in September. This would allow the Fed to monitor the effects of the June and July hikes on the economy and on inflation levels. 0.7118 is a weak resistance line. Above, there is resistance at 0.7196 There is support at 0.6996 and 0.6918
by OANDA
AUD to challenge USD for the throne of King CurrencyAUD/USD has been belted in recent weeks as the USD bullied every major FX pair. The selling is overdone and into major support ahead of the FOMC meeting tonight. Yesterday the RBA raised rates by 0.25% to 0.35% and we have begun the rate hike cycle with the central bank refocused on inflation. We look for buy the rumour sell the fact USD selling tonight after the FED rate hike or for the bond market to begin pricing in more Australia rate hikes than currently priced in.
Long
by easyMarkets
1
Increased Retail Sales Can Be a Positive SignAfter experiencing problems with Covid that disrupted business, of course, it would have an impact on people's purchasing power. Of course, during the recovery period from Covid, Australia was one of the countries that scored a trade balance surplus and retail sales continued to increase. Retail sales in Australia rose 1.6% for the third straight month, results in March showed that retail sales hit a record high of AUD 33.63 billion after a record high, amid continued easing of restrictions. Household goods retail, up 3.4% followed by other retail (2%), cafe, restaurant and takeaway food service (2%), department store (4.1%), food retail (0.5%) and clothing, footwear (0.5%) . Sales in Queensland (3.4%) and New South Wales (1.8%) saw the biggest gains after recovering from floods and extreme rainfall. Indicates that the Australian economy is recovering. Of course this will have an impact on the strengthening of the AUD currency. In monetary policy, the RBA has raised its interest rate by 25 BPS which makes market participants believe that further strengthening will occur for this currency. Market Direction By looking at the above phenomenon, it is certain that the strengthening of the AUD currency in the future can last a long time because it is predicted that the Australian central bank will raise interest rates to reduce the impact of prolonged inflation coupled with positive economic growth. above will affect the pair: Pair AUD/JPY Bullish Entry Buy S1: 90,603 S2: 88,794 S3: 86,954 Take Profit R1: 94,697 R2: 96,920 R3: 98.614
Long
by LeoAndreDarmawan