Get started

Rbnz

New Zealand's central bank expected to lower rates by a quarter-The New Zealand dollar has rebounded on Tuesday. NZD/USD is trading at 0.5615, up 1.3% on the day. This follows a 5% plunge over the past two days. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is widely expected to lower interest rates by a quarter-point at its rate meeting on Wednesday. The markets have priced in a quarter-point cut at 75% and a jumbo half-point cut at 25%. The RBNZ slashed rates by a half-point in February, a response to weak economic growth and an inflation rate of around 2%, the midpoint of its target band. The market meltdown and escalation in trade tensions due to new US tariffs could force the RBNZ to lower rates faster and deeper than previously expected. There is massive uncertainty in the air and the central bank will have to re-evaluate inflation and growth expectations, given the tariff turmoil. There is growing talk of a global recession, which would badly hurt New Zealand's export-reliant economy. China is New Zealand's largest trade partner and the escalating trade tensions between the US and China could turn into a New Zealand nightmare. China has imposed 34% reciprocal tariffs on the US, drawing a threat from President Trump that he will counter with a 50% tariff if the Chinese tariff is not removed. The RBNZ is dealing with the tariff crisis without Governor Adrian Orr, who suddenly resigned last month in the middle of his five-year term. The government has appointed Christian Hawkesby as Governor for a six-month term, after serving as the acting governor after Orr resigned.
by OANDA
RBNZ rate decision coming upWe are keeping a close eye on the RBNZ interest rate decision and if it will stick to its 25bps cut, or not. Let's dig in. FX_IDC:NZDUSD MARKETSCOM:NZDUSD Let us know what you think in the comments below. Thank you. 77.3% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
by Marketscom
AUD and NZD: WTH? RBNZ now in focusRisk aversion intensified on Friday, sending the Australian dollar down 4.56% and the New Zealand dollar 3.53% lower. The declines followed a move by US President Donald Trump to impose a 10% tariff on imports from both Australia and New Zealand. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese confirmed there would be no retaliation, noting the US represents less than 5% of Australia’s export market. New Zealand, with a higher 12% exposure, also ruled out countermeasures. For the New Zealand dollar, markets will now be focused on this week’s Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision, where a 25-basis point rate cut is widely expected. Barring further tariff news, this could be the most important event determining whether this sell-off continues.
by BlackBull_Markets
RBNZ lowers rates by 50 bps, NZ dollar gains groundThe New Zealand dollar has posted gains on Wednesday.  NZD/USD is trading at 0.5721 in the European session, up 0.31% on the day. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand slashed the cash rate by 50 basis points, bringing the cash rate to 3.75%.  The markets had priced in the cut at 90% so there was no surprise at the jumbo cut.  This lowered the cash rate to its lowest level since Nov. 2022.  The RBNZ demonstrated again that it can be aggressive, as it has cut rates by 175 basis points since the easing cycle started last August. The New Zealand dollar is stronger on Wednesday, which is somewhat surprising, given the jumbo rate cut and the RBNZ's signal that further rate cuts are on the way in the coming months. The rate statement noted that the members were confident lowering rates as CPI remained near the midpoint of the 1%-3% target band.  At the same time, members expressed concern that economic activity in New Zealand and abroad were "subdued" which posed a risk to economic growth. The statement also made a brief mention of "trade restrictions" which could dampen economic growth.  No mention was made of US President Trump's tariff threats but policymakers are clearly concerned that US tariffs, even if not aimed directly at New Zealand, could chill the global economy and hurt the country's key export sector. In a follow-up press conference, Governor Adrian Orr said that the Bank expected to lower the cash rate to 3% by the end of the year.  This forecast was lower than the November projection of 3.2% by year's end.  The central bank is expected to deliver smaller rate cuts of 25-bps in the coming months. NZD/USD is testing resistance at 0.5713.  Above, there is resistance at 0.5731 0.5686 and 0.5668 and the next support levels
by OANDA
1
New Zealand dollar slips ahead of expected RBNZ cutThe New Zealand dollar is sharply lower on Tuesday.  NZD/USD is trading at 0.5700 in the North American session, down 0.62% on the day. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets on Wednesday for the first time this year.  The RBNZ lowered rates by a half-point at the last meeting on Nov. 27 and the markets have priced in another half-point cut on Wednesday at 90%, which would bring the cash rate down to 3.75%.  The central bank held rates for over a year but has aggressively cut rates by 125 basis points in the current easing cycle. The RBNZ has telegraphed its plan to cut rates by a half-point on Wednesday and we could see a limited response from the New Zealand dollar, since the decision has been priced in. Still, the US/New Zealand rate differential will widen and that could spell headwinds in the near term for the New Zealand dollar, which plunged 13% in the fourth quarter 2024 but has gained 1.9% since Jan 1. What can we expect from the RBNZ after tomorrow's anticipated rate cut? The RBNZ's updated forecasts are expected to show the cash rate declining towards 3 percent, but in smaller increments of quarter-point cuts. This will depend on the strength of the economy and the direction of inflation. Another factor which could affect the rate path is the new US administration which has already started imposing tariffs. New Zealand is vulnerable to US tariffs as the US is its second-largest trading partner, accounting for about 12% of New Zealand exports. Even if the US does not target New Zealand with tariffs, the trade war between the US and China has clouded the inflation outlook and is will likely hamper global growth. NZD/USD is putting pressure on support at 0.5691.  Below, there is support at 0.5643 0.5781 and 0.5829 and the next resistance lines
by OANDA
Massive week for Aussie and Kiwi markets The Reserve Bank of Australia’s first meeting of the year is days away with money markets pricing in an 86% chance of a 25bps cut and a 14% chance that rates unchanged. However, Australia Finacial Review’s John Kehoe suggests market expectations of a 90% probability for a cut may be overstated, arguing the decision is closer to a 50/50 call. If the RBA cuts rates on Tuesday, it could support the government's message that cost-of-living pressures are easing and could lead to an early election announcement. If rates remain unchanged, the prime minister may delay the election until mid-April or May, hoping for a cut at the RBA’s next meeting on April 1. Meanwhile, the RBNZ is expected to cut rates this week, with markets pricing a 68% chance of a 50bps cut and a 32% chance of a 25bps reduction. A Reuters poll of 33 economists found 32 expecting a 50bps cut. However, ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley anticipates smaller 25bps cuts in April and May instead.
by BlackBull_Markets
Watch NZDUSD and AUDUSD because of RBNZ & RBA next weekThe RBA and the RBNZ are expected to deliver rate decisions next week, so there might be an slight opportunity for the bulls to capture a move higher, before those Banks deliver. Also, the current weakness in DXY could give a small helping hand for the bulls. That said, the positivity might be short-lived, as both Banks are expected to announce cuts, with the RBNZ potentially going for the bigger 50 bps cut. Let's see what happens. MARKETSCOM:AUDUSD MARKETSCOM:NZDUSD FX_IDC:AUDUSD FX_IDC:NZDUSD 74.2% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
by Marketscom
NZDUSD - The uptrend of the dollar is over?!The NZDUSD currency pair is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour timeframe. In case of upward correction, we can see the supply zone and sell within that range with appropriate risk reward. A valid break of the support area will provide us with the continuation of the downward path of this currency pair. At the beginning of 2025, the US dollar has continued its upward trajectory, solidifying its position as one of the leading global currencies. After delivering a strong performance in 2023 and 2024, the dollar has now risen by more than 1% against the euro and the British pound, outpacing other major currencies. From an economic news perspective, recent reports have had little impact on the market. While data on jobless claims, affected by holiday factors, were assessed positively, reports such as construction spending and manufacturing PMI fell short of expectations. However, these statistics failed to create significant market movement, with US Treasury yields seeing only a slight uptick. According to data published by S&P Global, the US manufacturing PMI for December 2024 stood at 49.4, a slight decline from 49.7 in November. This figure remains below the 50-point threshold, indicating contraction in manufacturing activity. Nonetheless, there has been a slight recovery from the mid-month figure of 48.3. Manufacturing output in November declined for the fourth consecutive month, hitting its lowest level in 18 months. Additionally, new orders continued to fall, though at a slower pace compared to previous months. However, export orders experienced a steeper decline, primarily driven by economic weakness in Europe and Australia. In the employment sector, there has been modest yet positive growth for the second consecutive month, reflecting manufacturers’ efforts to retain their workforce. Input cost inflation has reached its highest level since August 2024, largely due to concerns over trade tariffs and potential protectionist policies. Approximately 25% of firms attributed their increased purchases to tariff threats, highlighting concerns over the inflationary effects of such policies. Despite current challenges, manufacturers are increasingly optimistic about the future. This optimism, which has reached its highest level in two and a half years, stems from reduced uncertainties following the elections and positive expectations of stronger economic growth and supportive government policies in 2025. However, the gap between current production levels and future expectations has reached its widest point in a decade, excluding the COVID-19 pandemic period. The main driver behind the strength of the US dollar is capital inflows. While the US economy appears robust, this alone does not explain the dollar’s growth. A confluence of positive factors has made US assets attractive, with the country’s stock markets outperforming other global markets. Currently, a significant portion of global capital formation is concentrated in the US dollar and its markets. Nevertheless, risks such as rising tariffs or restrictive fiscal policies could alter the dollar’s trajectory. For now, the market shows little concern about the Republican-led Congress, and the US dollar continues to assert its dominance in global markets. Donald Trump, the US President-elect, recently tweeted that tariffs have brought immense wealth to the country and that he plans to continue these policies after assuming office on January 20. Trump also referenced border issues, calling Joe Biden the “worst president in US history.” The chief asset strategist at HSBC Bank highlighted the hawkish messages from the Federal Reserve’s December meeting as a cause for concern. January is expected to be highly volatile, but these fluctuations could present intriguing investment opportunities.
Short
by Ali_PSND
New Zealand slides after Fed rate cut, NZ GDP nextThe New Zealand dollar has declined sharply on Wednesday. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5685, down 1.2% on the day. The New Zealand dollar has been in freefall, plunging 11.6% since Oct. 1. New Zealand's economy is expected to contract in the third quarter by 0.4% q/q, after a 0.2% decline in Q2. If the economy  contracted for back-to-back quarters as expected, it would mean that the economy is in a technical recession.  Construction and manufacturing activity declined in the third quarter and a severe power crisis led to a decrease exports, all of which dampened GDP. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand slashed rates by 50 basis points last month, lowering the cash rate to 4.25%. The central bank has trimmed rates by 125 bp since August but the economy is clearly in need of further cuts. Inflation is back within the target of 1% to 3% and we can expect another cut at  the next meeting in February barring a surprise jump in inflation. There wasn't much excitement around today's Federal Reserve meeting, as the market had priced in a quarter-point cut at close to 100%. This is exactly what happened, as the Fed cut rates for a third time this year. The Fed signaled that it expected to cut rates only two times in 2025, lower than previous projections of four rate cuts. With the US economy in solid shape and the downswing in inflation stalled, the Fed can afford to take its time before the next rate cut. The market will hear from Fed Chair Powell shortly. Powell could reiterate that the Fed plans to cut rates "gradually", which means modest cuts of 25 basis points. NZD/USD is testing support at 0.5715. Next, there is support at 0.5665 There is resistance at 0.5801 and 0.5849
by OANDA
NZD/USD price action: kiwi softens amid economic uncertaintyThe NZD/USD pair fell to 0.57592, reflecting significant pressure from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) ongoing monetary easing strategy, which includes recent interest rate cuts and the potential for further reductions in 2025. This easing is meant to stimulate New Zealand's economic activity by boosting consumer spending and investment. However, the growing divergence between New Zealand's and the U.S.'s monetary policies could lead to additional depreciation of the kiwi. The Federal Reserve's consideration of interest rate hikes, amid rising U.S. inflation expectations, strengthens the U.S. dollar, potentially attracting global investors seeking better returns and causing capital outflows from New Zealand. These factors could further pressure the NZD. Meanwhile, China's upcoming economic stimuli, expected to be announced at the annual Politburo conference, could positively impact the kiwi due to New Zealand's strong trade ties with China. Additionally, upcoming U.S. inflation data will likely influence market expectations regarding future Fed actions, which could further shape NZD/USD dynamics. Traders should prepare for volatility in the NZD/USD pair as these global economic developments unfold.
by tastyfx
GBPNZD - The pound, in relative peace!The GBPNZD currency pair is located between EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and has left its downward channel. In case of a downward correction, we can see demand zone and buy this currency pair in that zone with a suitable risk reward. According to recent data, the UK’s economic indicators have shown various changes. M4 money supply, a key economic measure, has declined by 0.1%, compared to the previous figure of 0.6%. This drop may reflect reduced liquidity in the economy. In the area of consumer credit, the Bank of England reported that this metric reached £1.098 billion, lower than the forecast of £1.3 billion and the previous figure of £1.231 billion. This may indicate a decline in consumer demand for credit. Meanwhile, significant growth has been observed in the mortgage sector. Mortgage lending rose to £3.435 billion, surpassing the forecast of £2.7 billion and the previous figure of £2.541 billion. This increase suggests an improvement in the housing market and growing demand for mortgages. Additionally, the number of approved mortgages reached 68,303, exceeding the forecast of 64,500 and the previous figure of 65,647. This growth further highlights increased confidence and momentum in the housing market. Andrew Bailey, the Governor of the Bank of England, has addressed the financial and economic state of the UK, highlighting key concerns. He warned that price corrections could disrupt financing but expressed confidence that households and businesses would remain resilient against economic challenges. He also predicted that the UK’s economic growth would continue “sustainably.” Bailey pointed to heightened global risks and uncertainties while emphasizing that there is no conflict between financial stability and economic growth. Additionally, he noted that geopolitical risks remain elevated. According to Bloomberg and a CBI survey, tax pressures on UK businesses have caused a significant decline in the private sector. For the first time in two years, the budget has been identified as the main reason for reduced business activity. Companies have warned that hiring plans are at their weakest level since the COVID pandemic. Business activity in the UK has been declining for the first time in over two years as firms reduced jobs and limited investments following the October budget. According to the Confederation of British Industry’s (CBI) monthly growth index, a £26 billion ($33 billion) increase in payroll taxes and prolonged uncertainty caused by a three-month wait for the next budget after the Labour Party’s decisive victory in the July 4 election have significantly impacted private sector sentiment. The UK plans to review the design of its new labor survey in the spring. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that overall employment levels are now 313,000 higher than before the COVID pandemic. The economic inactivity rate has decreased by 0.1% to 22.1%, while the unemployment rate has remained steady at around 4.2%. Employment rates for the period from April to June 2024 increased by 0.1%, reaching 74.6%.
Long
by Ali_PSND
NZDUSD - The uptrend of the dollar is over?!The NZDUSD currency pair is located between the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe. In case of a downward correction, we can see the demand zones and buy within that zones with the appropriate risk reward. Although Trump has announced plans to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and several other countries, closer analysis suggests that these measures are more related to addressing issues like migration and drug trafficking than economic policies. Therefore, these actions are not considered a serious threat to international trade and may be interpreted differently by the markets. The appointment of Scott Bassant, a seasoned expert in currency markets and hedge funds, as the head of the economic team under President-elect Trump, has brought greater confidence to the markets. Bassant, who leans towards boosting the stock market, is likely to pursue more moderate policies, including reducing reliance on tariffs. One of Bassant’s proposed approaches involves using a weaker dollar instead of trade wars and tariffs to achieve economic goals such as increasing domestic production, improving trade balance, and strengthening the stock market. If international agreements, particularly with China, are reached, this strategy could put additional pressure on the dollar. Conway, Chief Economist of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, has stated that Trump’s policies are currently viewed as a medium-term risk to inflation and economic volatility. Moreover, forecasts have not yet accounted for potential U.S. tariffs. Conway has also predicted that house prices in New Zealand will rise by 6.8% next year. While he does not expect a significant boom in housing prices, he anticipates a modest revival in the real estate market. Meanwhile, Silk of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has announced that for February, a rate cut of 25 or 50 basis points is under consideration. During this week’s meeting, all options were reviewed, but the committee quickly reached consensus on a 50-basis-point cut. He clarified that a reduction beyond this level was deemed unnecessary as there remains a need to focus on controlling domestic inflation.
Long
by Ali_PSND
New Zealand dollar eyes RBNZ rate announcementThe New Zealand dollar is in positive territory on Tuesday, after a four-day losing streak. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5850, up 0.09% on the day. Earlier, the New Zealand dollar fell as low as 0.5797, its lowest level since Nov. 1. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand makes its rate announcement on Wednesday and the markets have priced in a jumbo rate cut of a 50 basis point for a second straight meeting. This would bring the cash rate to 4.25%, its lowest level since November 2022. The RBNZ has done a good job of lowering inflation, which fell to 2.2% in the second quarter. This is the first time in over three years that inflation is within the target band of between 1 and 3 percent. Still, elevated rates have taken a heavy toll on the economy, as GDP declined 0.2% in the second quarter and likely fell in Q3 as well, which would mark a recession. The central bank’s aggressive rate-cutting is aimed at providing the economy with a much-needed boost. The New Zealand dollar stands to be the big loser from an oversized rate cut. The currency plunged around 1% after the 50-bp chop in October and we could see another sharp drop on Wednesday if the central bank cuts again by 50 basis points. The Federal Reserve releases the minutes of the November meeting later today. At the meeting, the Fed lowered rates by 25 basis points. Investors will be looking for insights about what the Fed may have planned for the Dec. 18 meeting. A few weeks ago, a second straight 25-bp cut appeared likely but with the US economy remaining strong, the Fed may opt to pause. Interest-rate future markets are currently pricing in a cut at 59% and a pause at 41%, according to the CME’s Fed Watch. NZD/USD is testing resistance at 0.5857. Above, there is resistance at 0.5898 There is support at 0.5793 and 0.5752
OMXCOP:FED
by OANDA
GBPNZD - Will the pound continue to rise?!The GBPNZD currency pair is located between the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its downward channel. In case of a downward correction, we can see the demand zone and buy this currency pair in that range with the appropriate risk reward. Breaking the ceiling of the descending channel will provide the way for this currency pair to rise to the specified resistance range. Barclays Institute Remains Optimistic About the British Pound’s Growth Until 2025 Key highlights of the analysis are as follows: • Strengthening ties between the UK and the European Union are expected to provide long-term support for the British economy and pound, boosting its positive outlook. • The financial packages announced by the UK government, amounting to approximately 1% of GDP, have stimulated domestic demand and delayed the Bank of England’s (BoE) interest rate cut cycle. • A critical uncertainty lies in whether higher labor costs will lead to inflationary pressures or a reduction in employment, both of which could impact supply. • The UK’s trade deficit in goods with the United States indicates that, compared to the Eurozone, Britain is less exposed to the direct risks of potential US tariffs. This creates a favorable distinction for the pound over the euro. Barclays predicts that the pound will maintain a positive trajectory through 2025, supported by fiscal resilience, limited exposure to tariff risks, and structural improvements in UK-EU relations. These factors position the pound for gains against both the dollar and the euro, though uncertainties related to labor costs remain a critical factor to monitor. Remarks by Ramsden: Ramsden, a member of the Bank of England, noted that wage growth is more likely to align closer to 2% rather than 4%. He highlighted that the economy is on track to return to normalcy, with inflation stabilizing at a low level and expected to continue this trend. In the short term, inflation is anticipated to remain near the target, while in the long term, it could fall significantly below it. However, the impact of higher social insurance taxes on key economic indicators like prices, wages, and unemployment remains unclear. New Zealand’s Economic Outlook: Meanwhile, New Zealand’s Treasury has forecast a deeper economic downturn, which is placing greater pressure on tax revenues. According to Dominic Stephens, the Treasury’s chief economic advisor, the economic contraction has been sharper than expected, posing serious challenges for the government’s efforts to reduce its budget deficit. Recent evidence suggests that economic and fiscal forecasts, set to be released on December 17, will likely be further downgraded. Data indicates that New Zealand consumers are spending less than they did last year, and businesses remain pessimistic about their economic prospects.
Long
by Ali_PSND
AUDUSD - Trump continues to influence the dollar!The AUDUSD currency pair is located between EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its downward channel. In case of an upward correction due to the release of economic data this week, we can see the supply zone and sell within those limits with the appropriate risk reward. As long as the drawn upward trend line is maintained, the target of this corrective movement will be the ceiling of the descending channel. The recent U.S. elections have sparked two contrasting narratives about the country’s economic future. One emphasizes economic growth through tax and regulatory cuts, while the other highlights downside risks stemming from tariffs and overall policy uncertainty. However, the business cycle’s strong performance to date remains a key consideration. Forecasts suggest that U.S. economic growth will slightly slow to 2% in 2025, with unemployment rising modestly to 4.5%. Additionally, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (Core PCE) index is expected to decrease by 0.5% next year, settling at 2.3%. The Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December and reduce them further to 3.75% by the end of Q3 2025. On the trade policy front, significant tariff increases on China are anticipated, though no major changes are expected elsewhere. These tariffs could reduce trade volumes and raise import prices. According to a recent Federal Reserve Bank of New York report, credit application rejection rates in 2024 are projected to be significantly higher than in 2019. The report also indicates that households are expected to be less inclined to apply for credit next year. Rejection rates for mortgage refinancing and auto loans have reached record highs in the survey’s history. Furthermore, the share of Americans refraining from applying for credit due to discouragement is on the rise. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs has revised its 2025 economic growth forecast for Australia downward, citing potential negative spillovers from the expected increase in U.S. tariffs on China. In its 2025 Australia and New Zealand Outlook report, Goldman now predicts a 1.8% rise in Australia’s GDP for next year, down from its earlier 2% forecast. This adjustment reflects the anticipated impact of tariffs on Australia’s exports, given that China is its largest trading partner. President-elect Donald Trump has threatened to impose a 60% tariff on Chinese exports, aiming to protect American businesses and jobs. In response, Chinese President Xi Jinping has remarked that China-Australia relations have maintained a positive trajectory of growth. He emphasized the need for enhanced coordination and cooperation between the two nations, stating that there are no fundamental conflicts of interest between them. Xi also called on Australia to create fairer trade conditions, announcing China’s readiness to increase imports of high-quality Australian products and encourage Chinese companies to invest in the country.
Short
by Ali_PSND
GBPNZD - How will the BOE decision affect the pound?The GBPNZD currency pair is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its medium-term bullish channel. In case of downward correction, we can see the demand zones and buy this currency pair within those zones with appropriate risk reward. The Bank of England has lowered its interest rate by 0.25%, bringing it to 4.75%. According to the Bank’s monetary statement, GDP is projected to grow by 0.2% in Q3 2024 compared to the previous quarter (September forecast: 0.3%) and increase by 0.3% in Q4 this year. The goal is to keep the interest rate restrictive enough until the risks of inflation persistently returning to the 2% target diminish. Andrew Bailey, the Bank of England’s governor, noted that the rate of inflation decline has been faster than expected. However, further reduction in service price inflation is still needed to maintain the consumer price index at the 2% target level, and sufficient spare capacity will be essential to reach this goal in the medium term. The rise in the employer’s national insurance contribution, included in the budget, is expected to have a slightly inflationary effect on prices and a marginally negative impact on wages and corporate profitability. The combined effect of increased employer national insurance and minimum wage is likely to raise hiring costs, with the net impact on inflation yet to be determined. Adrian Orr, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s governor, highlighted geopolitical tensions as a significant risk to the economy, expressing concern over the economy lagging behind the interest rate cuts. Orr also emphasized that climate change poses an existential threat to New Zealand, calling for serious attention to this issue. This view reflects deep economic and environmental concerns in the country. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s Financial Stability Report indicates that the financial system remains resilient despite the economic downturn, with risks under control. Banks anticipate a slight increase in non-performing loans, although this level remains below what was experienced during previous economic recessions. Debt servicing costs have peaked and are now declining, with mortgage interest rates dropping over the past six months. Although many households and businesses are under financial pressure and some borrowers face challenges with rising unemployment, domestic economic challenges persist.
Long
by Ali_PSND
1
NZDUSD -DXY will continue its upward trend?!The NZDUSD currency pair is located between EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe. In case of a downward correction, we can see the demand zone and buy within that zone with a suitable risk reward. Crossing the specified resistance range of this currency pair will provide the path for its ascent to higher price targets. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has stated that geopolitical tensions are considered a risk to financial stability. Concerns about these tensions have recently grown, and the potential impacts of these risks cannot be ignored. The RBNZ has also pointed out that the economic policies of former U.S. President Donald Trump would lead to increased inflationary pressures. Hawksby, an RBNZ official, noted that central banks have the capacity to manage the global ramifications of these policies. Orr, the head of the RBNZ, mentioned that the world may have reached a peak in global trade, and Trump’s return to the White House could pose additional challenges for central banks. Trump has discussed imposing global tariffs of 10-20%, higher tariffs with China, reductions in corporate and personal taxes, and the lifting of bureaucratic regulations. George Saravelos, a senior analyst at Deutsche Bank, has identified two key points regarding this situation: caution in making fundamental market changes and the way Trump’s and the Republicans’ policies are priced in. Saravelos believes these changes are not solely political but are also linked to the structure of financial markets. He notes that high-risk global assets are tracking the upward trend in U.S. equities, which has resulted in high-risk commodity currencies performing better. However, he stresses that this trend should not be easily projected into the future, and potential shifts in correlations should not be overlooked. According to him, the U.S. election results are historic and could lead to structural changes in the markets, potentially breaking previous correlations. This implies that the U.S. market could continue to grow, while other global markets may experience negative performance. Saravelos also observes that markets are currently evaluating a relatively balanced set of policies, which differ from the election promises, particularly regarding budget deficits and tariffs. He believes that if Trump’s plans are implemented, there is a possibility of further increases in the valuation of the dollar and other financial instruments.
Long
by Ali_PSND
1
New Zealand dollar higher despite pessimistic RBNZThe New Zealand dollar has moved higher on Tuesday. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5998, up 0.46% on the day. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand released its semi-annual Financial Stability Report and the financial system received a favorable grade. That was it for the good news, as the report pointed to weak economic conditions that were hampering households and businesses. The report noted that rising unemployment was causing “acute” financial difficulties for some households and that businesses had been impacted by weak demand and high cost pressures. This had caused households to reduce spending and businesses to freeze investing. Although inflation and interest rates had fallen, “significant further weakening in the economy remains a risk.” The negative tone of the report could mean that the central bank will remain aggressive in its rate-cutting cycle. The RBNZ slashed rates by 50 basis points in October, lowering the cash rate to 4.75%. The final meeting of the year is on Nov. 27 and another 50-bp is likely, with a supersize 75-bp cut an outside possibility. The RBNZ will be keeping a close eye on Wednesday’s third-quarter employment report. Employment change is expected to decline by 0.4% after a 0.4% gain in the second quarter. As well, the unemployment rate is projected to jump to 5%, from 4.6% in the second quarter. With inflation easing, the RBNZ is keeping a closer eye on the labor market and if the deterioration in employment is worse than expected in Q3, the calls for a 75-bp cut at the next meeting will get louder. NZD/USD has pushed above resistance at 0.5987 and is testing resistance at 0.6002 There is support at 0.5957 and 0.5942
by OANDA
NZD/USD rises ahead of jobs data, US electionThe New Zealand dollar is higher on Monday. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5991, up 0.49% on the day. The New Zealand dollar is coming off a miserable October, plunging 5.9%. New Zealand releases the third quarter employment report on Wednesday. The markets are braced for soft numbers that point to a deterioration in the labor market. Employment change is expected to decline by 0.4% after a 0.4% gain in the second quarter. As well, the unemployment rate is expected to jump to 5%, from 4.6% in the second quarter. The New Zealand dollar is vulnerable to a weak employment report. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will be keeping a close eye on the job release. A weak employment report will support for the case for a rate cut at the Nov. 27 meeting. Last month, the central bank made an aggressive cut of 50 basis points, lowering the cash rate to 4.75%. What can we expect at the next meeting? Inflation has been moving lower and eased to 2.2% y/y in the third quarter. This was down sharply from 3.3% in Q2 and more importantly, was back within the RBNZ’s target band of 1%-3%. The decline in inflation has raised expectations of further aggressive cuts and the most likely scenario is another 50-bp cut. Still, the RBNZ has demonstrated in the past that it can be very aggressive and a 75-bp cut cannot be ruled out. The US election on Tuesday is too close to call and the political uncertainty could translate in volatility in the financial markets. With the votes in some swing states expected to be very close, we can expect recounts and even court challenges, which means that the election outcome won’t be determined for days or even weeks, which could leave investors uneasy. The election will be followed by the Federal Reserve rate decision on Thursday, with the markets pricing in a 25-bp cut at close to 100%. NZD/USD tested resistance at 0.6014 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 0.6028 There is support at 0.5988 and 0.5974
by OANDA
1
NZDUSD Analysis for 16/10/2024: Slight Bullish Bias ExpectedIntroduction As of 16th October 2024, the NZDUSD (New Zealand Dollar vs. US Dollar) pair shows a slight bullish bias in today’s trading session. A combination of fundamental factors, economic data releases, and market sentiment are all playing a pivotal role in driving this price action. In this article, we will break down the key drivers for the potential bullish trend in NZDUSD today, with a focus on the latest developments in the global economy, central bank policies, and market conditions. Key Drivers for NZDUSD Bullish Bias 1. New Zealand Economic Data Strength One of the primary factors contributing to the slight bullish bias in NZDUSD is the recent release of positive economic data from New Zealand. Key indicators such as GDP growth and retail sales have come in stronger than expected, supporting the NZD. The New Zealand economy continues to exhibit resilience despite global challenges, and this has attracted investors towards the Kiwi dollar. In the latest report, New Zealand’s consumer sentiment index showed improvement, reflecting increased consumer confidence. This suggests that domestic demand is picking up, which is supportive of the New Zealand Dollar’s strength. As a result, this economic optimism is likely to boost NZDUSD. 2. RBNZ Hawkish Stance The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has maintained a relatively hawkish stance, signaling a possible interest rate hike in the near future to combat inflation. Although inflation remains elevated globally, New Zealand’s inflation figures are closely monitored by the RBNZ, and the central bank is prepared to act if needed. A potential rate hike would increase the attractiveness of the NZD in the forex market. The US Federal Reserve, by contrast, is leaning towards a more neutral stance, with expectations that interest rates may have peaked for the time being. This divergence in monetary policy between the RBNZ and the Federal Reserve is providing support to NZDUSD, as a more hawkish RBNZ outlook favors the New Zealand Dollar. 3. US Dollar Weakness On the other side of the equation, the US Dollar has experienced some softness amid mixed economic data and shifting market sentiment. The recent US CPI (Consumer Price Index) report showed inflation cooling, reducing the likelihood of aggressive Federal Reserve tightening. As inflation shows signs of easing, investors are beginning to price in the possibility of a Fed pause, which has led to USD weakness. Additionally, political uncertainty in the US, particularly related to fiscal policy and government shutdown risks, is weighing on the USD. The combination of a potentially dovish Federal Reserve and domestic uncertainty is making the US Dollar less attractive, boosting the NZDUSD pair. 4. Global Risk Sentiment Risk sentiment in global financial markets is another critical driver of NZDUSD. As a commodity-linked currency, the New Zealand Dollar often performs well when risk appetite improves. Today, we see a more optimistic tone in equity markets as investors respond positively to the easing inflation pressures in the US and signs of stabilization in global growth. This “risk-on” environment typically benefits the NZD, and we are seeing this reflected in the slight bullish bias for NZDUSD. Moreover, China's economic stabilization efforts, especially in the property sector, have provided additional support for commodity-exporting countries like New Zealand, bolstering the NZD. 5. Technical Outlook From a technical perspective, NZDUSD has been testing key support levels in recent trading sessions, and a bounce from these levels is likely to fuel further upside. The 50-day moving average (MA) has recently crossed above the 200-day MA, forming a bullish “golden cross,” which is a positive signal for further upside movement in the short term. In addition, RSI (Relative Strength Index) readings are indicating that the pair is not yet in overbought territory, suggesting more room for the bullish momentum to continue. Conclusion In summary, the NZDUSD pair is expected to maintain a slight bullish bias on 16th October 2024, driven by several key fundamental factors. Strong New Zealand economic data, a hawkish RBNZ stance, US Dollar weakness, positive global risk sentiment, and favorable technical signals all contribute to the optimistic outlook for NZDUSD today. However, traders should remain cautious of any unexpected developments that could shift the market sentiment. Keywords: NZDUSD, New Zealand Dollar, US Dollar, Forex Analysis, 16th October 2024, bullish bias, RBNZ, Federal Reserve, US inflation, interest rates, forex market, technical analysis, risk sentiment, currency trading, New Zealand economy, NZD strength, TradingView analysis, forex forecast, USD weakness.
Long
by PERFECT_MFG
RBNZ implements jumbo cut; Kiwi dollar plummeted Following the Fed's lead, the RBNZ also took a big step. The RBNZ took the jumbo step of cutting its benchmark interest rate by 50bps, bringing it down from 5.25% to 4.75%. RBNZ stated that New Zealand's economy is now in excess capacity, and low import prices fuel deflation. They insisted that the committee unanimously confirmed that domestic economic activity is decelerating, as business investment and consumer spending are weakening, and employment conditions are persistently deteriorating. As hopes for the Fed’s additional rate cut diminish, the US dollar is on the rise, while the Kiwi dollar has dropped briefly to 0.6050, matching its lowest since 18th August. NZDUSD advanced to 0.6095 after breaching the ascending channel’s upper bound. If NZDUSD breaches the resistance at 0.6110, the price could gain upward momentum toward 0.6175. Conversely, if NZDUSD fails to hold above the channel’s upper bound and breaks below the support at 0.6050, the price could fall further to 0.5960.
by inkicho_exness