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#AUDNZD: Keep an eye on the basing pattern here...The weekly down trend signal in $AUDNZD expires next week, this means a potential reversal can be setting up. At the same time, the daily chart is basing and can flash a bullish signal in a day or more. I'll be watching this pair closely in the coming days, after today's close in particular. The recent bout of #NZD strength courtesy of RNBZ's hawkishness has droven the cross pair too far in my opinion and is bound to mean revert substantially, as we recover from peak pessimism when it comes to Australia and China... Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
3
NZ dollar slides below 62, retail sales nextThe New Zealand dollar continues to show volatility this week. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6182, down 0.48%, erasing all of Tuesday's gains. Later today, New Zealand releases retail sales for the second quarter. The markets are expecting a strong rebound of 1.7%, after the Q1 reading of -0.5%. The release is expected to reflect pent-up consumer demand after Covid restrictions were lifted in April. A stronger-than-expected release could give the New Zealand dollar a lift. The RBNZ will be carefully monitoring the retail sales release, as a strong reading would indicate that the economy remains strong and can continue to absorb higher interest rates. The RBNZ has been aggressive, raising rates by 50 basis points at four straight meetings. The central bank is expected to add another 50bp hike at the October meeting, which would bring the cash rate to 3.50%. Inflation has hit 7.3%, but the RBNZ is confident that it will peak soon and expects inflation to fall to 3.8% by the end of 2023. The central bank is cautiously positive about the economic outlook, predicting that the economic slowdown will not turn into a full-blown recession. Over in the US, durable goods orders for July were a mix. The headlines reading slipped to 0.0%, down sharply from 2.2% in June and missing the estimate of 0.6%. Core durable goods was unchanged at 0.3%. The weak data did not weigh on the US dollar, unlike the case after a weak US New Home Sales release on Tuesday, which sent the US dollar broadly lower. Investors are now shifting attention to Thursday's US Preliminary GDP for Q2. In July, the initial GDP estimate came in at -0.9%, settting off a storm of debate as to whether the US economy was in a recession after back-to-back quarters of negative growth. The debate had political overtones as well, with the White House, trying to avoid being tainted with the "R" word, went to great pains to point out that there are other definitions of a recession. The second GDP estimate is likely to come in at -0.8% or -0.9%; any other number would be a surprise and would likely result in some volatility for the US dollar. NZD/USD faces resistance at 0.6227 and 0.6366 There is support at 0.6126 and 0.6075
by OANDA
New Zealand dollar slides after RBNZ hikeThe New Zealand dollar has taken a tumble today. In the European session, NZD/USD has declined by 0.88% and is trading at 0.6289. We continue to see plenty of volatility from the New Zealand dollar. Last week, the currency rose 3.33%, but has pared those gains this week and is down 2.47%. The RBNZ dutifully raised interest rates by 0.50%, for a fourth straight time. This brings the cash rate to an even 3.00%. However, the New Zealand dollar has responded with sharp losses, as the central bank's inflation and unemployment forecasts have been revised upwards. In its monetary statement, the RBNZ said it expected inflation to start to drop from the current level of 7.3%, but said that inflation will not fall below 3% until June 2024. As well, unemployment is expected to rise to 5% in 2025. In May, the central bank projected inflation would drop under 3% in September 2023 and inflation would rise to 4.7% in 2025. The central bank holds its next meeting in October. Governor Orr flatly ruled out any predetermination as to what the RBNZ would do. Still, short of a spectacular turnaround in inflation, odds are that the Bank will deliver another 0.50% hike, as its primary focus is to ensure that inflation does not become entrenched. There is the danger that the sharp rate tightening could cause a recession, but that is a price the RBNZ is willing to pay. The Federal Reserve is doing its best to convey the message that inflation is far from beaten and additional rate hikes are coming. Since the surprising inflation report which showed a decline in CPI, the markets have been holding onto the idea that the Fed will reverse directions next year, which has sent the US dollar sharply lower. The Fed minutes will be released later today, and I expect the Fed to continue to drum out its hawkish stance. Will investors finally buy into the Fed's hawkish message or ignore what they don't want to hear? Stay tuned - the dollar could show some volatility after the release of the minutes. NZD/USD is testing support at 0.6300. Below, there is support at 0.6227 There is resistance at 0.6385 and 0.6495
by OANDA
NZD slides, employment report nextThe New Zealand dollar has reversed directions today and recorded sharp losses. NZD/USD is trading at 0.6285, down 0.75% on the day. Risk appetite has fallen, with US Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi's controversial trip to Taiwan sending risk appetite lower. The New Zealand dollar has followed the Aussie, which has plunged around 1.5% today. As well, NZD/USD is under pressure from NZD/JPY, which is down 1% today due to safe-haven flows to the Japanese yen. New Zealand releases the employment report for Q2 on Wednesday. The labour market has been solid but unspectacular - in each of the last two quarters, Employment Change climbed by a negligible 0.1%, while the unemployment rate remained steady at 3.2%. Employment Change is expected to rise to 0.4% and the unemployment rate is forecast to tick lower to 3.1%. With the markets expecting only a slight change in the second quarter, I don't expect the New Zealand dollar to react unless the forecasts are wide off the mark. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand continues to grapple with soaring inflation, which rose to 7.3% in Q2, up from 6.9% in Q1. The central bank has raised rates to 2.50%, but with inflation well above the inflation target of around 2%, rates will have to keep rising in order to reel in inflation. The RBNZ is also concerned about inflation expectations, which if left unchecked will strengthen inflation and exacerbate the Bank's efforts to curb inflation. Inflation Expectations accelerated for eight straight quarters and hit 3.29% in Q1, up from 3.27% and a 31-year high. We'll get a look at Inflation Expectations for Q2 next week, and if the current trend continues and the reading accelerates, it will put further pressure on the RBNZ to respond with a large rate hike at the August 17th meeting. NZD/USD is putting strong pressure on support at 0.6271. Below, there is support at 0.6213 There is resistance at 0.6350 and 0.6408
by OANDA
$NZD KIWI - Where to next?$NZD KIWI - Where to next? We had the FOMC, wasn't as hawkish we are at neutral rates, we had a horrible GDP and now we are in data dependent of course, is recession priced in already? Well, time will tell but regarding NZD: Technical terms: In pennant/Bull flag a break to either direction. A break above 50 EMA - TL down we onto the bulls further in control next area of interest 1.618 areas which is a key resistance zone. I bullish FX commodity pairs and precious metals, even a crypto! (Not Investment Advice) TJ
by Trade_Journal
NZDUSD BULLISH OUTLOOKNew Zealand's CPI rose to 7.3% from 6.9% in the first quarter. This prompts analysts to believe that RBNZ will raise the interest rate with more than anticipated in order to mitigate the roaring inflation. This expectations will resume most likely till the RBNZ August meeting where the decision for the interest rate will be made. Both MACD and RSI indicators are confirming this outlook. if it gets confirmed the pair might try to test its previous resistance level at 0.6365 If not, it might plumed back to its latest low of 0.60605 Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
Long
by legacyFXofficial
NZ dollar slides as risk sentiment fallsThe New Zealand dollar is sharply lower on Tuesday. NZD/USD is trading at 0.6261, down 1.14% on the day. New Zealand data has been mixed this week. BusinessNZ Services Index rose to 55.2 in May, up from 52.2 in April. This points to stronger expansion in the services area. However, Westpac Consumer Confidence plunged to 78.7 in May, its lowest level ever recorded. This was down from 92.1 in April. Consumers are very unhappy about the cost of living crisis and the survey found that consumers are scaling back on leisure activities, such as dining at restaurants. The double blow of higher mortgage rates and increases in living expenses has taken a large chunk of disposable income. If this results in a decrease in consumer spending, it could lead to a downturn in economic growth. Consumer angst could have a major effect on the Reserve Bank's policy. If consumer demand sinks, the central bank may have to ease off on the size of future rate hikes. The RBNZ has been tightening aggressively and the cash rate, which is currently at 2%, is expected to rise to 3% by the end of August and possibly to 4% in 12 months' time.  The RBNZ is in a fierce battle with inflation and if demand falls, inflation could peak and allow the central bank to ease up on its tightening cycle. The Bank is also monitoring inflation expectations, with policy makers keen to ensure that expectations don't become unanchored. With no US releases today, Fed Chair Powell's semi-annual appearance on Capitol Hill will take over center stage. Powell will brief lawmakers today and tomorrow, and anxious investors will be on the lookout for clues on where monetary policy is headed. Will Powell signal that he plans to ease on tightening? Powell's testimony could have a strong impact on the financial markets and should be treated as a market-mover for the US dollar. NZD/USD tested support at 0.6302 earlier. Below, there is support at 0.6209 There is resistance at 0.6408
by OANDA
NZDJPY: Improved risk outlook puts bulls in chargeNZD has gained in recent months from the market's improved risk outlook on global vaccine confidence. The NZD's recovery is being aided by China's stronger-than-expected trade figures. According to recent figures, May's imports and exports were likely positive. A rise in commodity prices benefits the currencies of commodity-producing countries. According to Bloomberg, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) stated on Thursday that it will progressively sell off the government bonds bought during its quantitative easing (QE) program over the next five years. When the (RBNZ) sells bonds, the money supply is reduced because cash is removed from the economy in return for bonds. In the long run, decreasing a country's money supply leads its currency to appreciate.
Long
by TradeyMarkets
1
Today’s Notable Sentiment ShiftsUSD – The dollar rose on Wednesday, holding most of its earlier gains after minutes from the FOMC’s May meeting showed that most participants believed half-percentage-point rate increases would likely be appropriate in June and July. Commenting after the minutes’ release, BMO Capital Markets noted that “as it conducts a pair of 50 bps rate hikes during the next two months, the Fed will likely keep its cards closer to its chest, waiting to see how the outlook and risks unfold before proffering what we expect will be another strong policy signal. That is, unless further worrisome inflation developments force the Fed to lay it cards on the table.” RBNZ – New Zealand’s central bank delivered its fifth straight interest rate hike on Wednesday and signalled a much more aggressive tightening path as authorities seek to reduce the second-round effects of runaway inflation. The RBNZ raised the OCR by 50 basis points to 2.0%, a level not seen since November 2016, while also revising its projections, expecting the cash rate to double to 4.0% over the next year and remain there into 2024. Justifying its more aggressive stance, the RBNZ noted that “a larger and earlier increase in the OCR reduces the risk of inflation becoming persistent, while also providing more policy flexibility ahead in light of the highly uncertain global economic environment.”
TVC:DXY
by thunderpips
1
New Zealand dollar sinks after US CPIThis week has gone from bad to worse for the New Zealand dollar, as NZD/USD has taken a tumble on Thursday. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6248, down 0.74% on the day. The currency has dropped 2.66% this week and is trading at lows not seen since June 2020. The US inflation report for April showed that CPI eased, but the decline was much smaller than expected. US CPI dropped from 8.5% to 8.3%, above the estimate of 8.1%. This chilled any speculation of an '"inflation peak", as the markets digested the fact that even if inflation is moving lower, it could do so at a very slow pace. For the Fed, the high inflation reading confirms that its hawkish stance is justified, but now there are calls for policy makers to be even more aggressive in tightening the monetary screws. The Fed has signalled that it plans to deliver 50-bps increases in June and July, but the markets aren't dismissing the possibility of a massive 75-bps hike. Fed member James Bullard said on Wednesday that 50-bps moves were his base case and this appears to be the majority view. Still, inflation was higher than investors or the Fed had expected, and the May inflation report, which will be released just a few days prior to the Fed's next meeting on June 14-15th, will be critical in determining the size of the next rate hike. The Fed has embarked on a rate-hike cycle primarily because of soaring inflation, so it stands to reason that inflation will be a key factor in rate policy. Fed member Mester said on Tuesday that she supports raising rates by 50-bps at the next two meetings and then speeding up or slowing down the pace of increases based on inflation levels. The RBNZ is also under pressure to tighten more aggressively after Inflation Expectations for Q2 crept upwards to 3.29% (3.27% prior). Inflation Expectations have now risen for an eighth successive month, and the RBNZ is looking to reverse this trend. At the April meeting, the RBNZ said it would act to ensure that "current high consumer price inflation does not become embedded into longer-term inflation expectations.”  With Inflation Expectations not showing any signs of easing, the RBNZ is widely expected to raise rates by 50-bps at the May 25th meeting. NZD/USD is down sharply and has broken below support at 0.6281. Below, there is support at 0.6169 There is resistance at 0.6344 and 0.6456
by OANDA
NZ dollar steady after solid jobs reportThe New Zealand dollar is in positive territory on Wednesday, as the currency looks for its first winning session since April 20th. The New Zealand labour market remains robust, as confirmed by the Q1 employment report. The unemployment rate remained at a record low of 3.2%, matching expectations. Employment growth fell to 2.9%, (3.1% exp.), which was down from the 3.5% gain in Q1. What was perhaps more significant was wage growth, which climbed to 3.1% YoY, its highest level since 2008. The RBNZ places great weight on wage growth and this upswing will raise pressure on the central bank to deliver another 0.50% rate hike at the May 25th meeting, which would bring the Official Cash Rate to 2.0%. Inflation hit 6.9% in the first quarter and the RBNZ is determined to curb inflation expectations, which like CPI, continues to accelerate. The RBNZ delivered a 0.50% in April and has telegraphed the markets that more tightening is needed. Despite the RBNZ's hawkish stance, the New Zealand dollar has been steamrolled by its US cousin. NZD/USD plunged 6.88% in the month of April, even with the 0.50% rate hike in April. The Fed holds its policy meeting later today, with a 0.50% rate increase a virtual certainty. Such a move will be highly significant, as it would mark the Fed's largest rate increase in 20 years and demonstrates that the Fed is committed to reducing inflation, which has hit 40-year highs. The half-point increase has been priced in, but what remains uncertain is the tone of the rate statement and how aggressively will the Fed scale back its balance sheet (quantitative tightening). If the Fed delivers a hawkish message to the markets in addition to the rate hike, the US dollar will likely respond with gains. There is support at 0.6391 and 0.6325 We find resistance at 0.6519 and 0.6585
by OANDA
NZ dollar drops to 22 month-lowThe misery continues for the New Zealand dollar, which is down almost 1% on Thursday. NZD/USD has fallen below the 0.65 level and has plunged 6.54% in the month of April. ANZ Business Confidence was unchanged in April, with a reading of -42.0. That means close to half of New Zealand businesses are pessimistic about the economic outlook over the next 12 months. The problems identified by businesses are nothing new, with shortages in materials and workers and inflation driving up costs. New Zealand inflation hit 6.9% in Q1, a 30-year high. In addition to the surge in inflation, businesses expect inflation to continue to rise - in April, inflation expectations rose to 5.9%, up from 5.5% in March. The upside risk in inflation expectations is a paramount concern for the RBNZ, which faces a massive battle in wrestling inflation to lower levels. Today's weak Business Confidence report will exacerbate those worries and will support aggressive rate tightening from the RBNZ in order to get a handle on spiralling inflation. A back-to-back hike of 0.50% at the May meeting is a strong possibility. Even with the RBNZ in aggressive mode, the US dollar continues to pummel its New Zealand counterpart. The Federal Reserve is poised to deliver another half-point hike at next week's meeting and has hinted at more oversize rate hikes in order to curb high inflation. US Treasury yields are moving higher, which is supporting the US dollar rally. Yields rose on Thursday, even though US GDP surprised with a contraction in Q1, the first negative growth recorded since the pandemic recession in 2020. NZD/USD has broken below the 0.6504 line. Next, there is support at 0.6381 There is resistance at 0.6569 and 0.6692
by OANDA
RBNZ super-hikes but NZD slidesThe RBNZ came out swinging on Wednesday, as it hiked the Cash Rate to 1.50%, with an oversized hike of 50-basis points. Ordinarily, a sharp rate hike by a central bank would prop up the local currency, but that was not the case today. The central bank seemed to hit the right buttons to show its hawkish stance, with its largest rate hike since April 2000. However, instead of rising, the New Zealand dollar took a tumble, falling more than 1 percent. What happened to the New Zealand dollar, which now finds itself at 4-week lows? The RBNZ seemed to hit the right hawkish buttons, which should have boosted the kiwi. The super-size rate hike was not priced in by the markets, which had expected a modest 0.25% increase. In its rate statement, the RBNZ noted that it planned to bring forward monetary normalisation in order to lower inflation. What sent the New Zealand dollar spinning on its backside was the fact that the central bank did not change its terminal policy forecasts for 2022 and 2023. The markets chose to focus on the lack of new forecasts rather than the hike and the rate statement, sending the New Zealand dollar sharply lower. The RBNZ is hoping that today's hike will curb not just inflationary pressures but also inflation expectations. Business confidence is in deep-freeze, with spiralling inflation one of the key concerns facing businesses. The RBNZ has no plan to let up on its rate-hike cycle, which raises concerns as to whether the central bank can shepherd the economy to a 'soft landing' once inflation is brought down to lower levels. If the RBNZ is over-aggressive in its tightening, that could result in the dampening of economic growth and even a recession.  As for today's performance from the RBNZ, it's clear that it will take more than 0.50% rate hikes to boost the New Zealand dollar. There is resistance at 0.6902, followed by 0.6980 NZD/USD has support at 0.6769 and 0.6691
by OANDA
NZDJPY - Will BE MARKET RISK ON ? ⛔️ None of the important data for the NZD will be released this week. The most important INDICATOR DATA for JPY is not yet released. But the New Zealand Central Bank meeting, one of the most important EVENTs for the New Zealand dollar, is set to take place next week. ⛔️ NZD FEATURE is currently down a bit. The main reason for that is because MARKET RISK OFF. Today there is a slight market risk on the situation. The NZD FEATURE stands at 0.6875 LEVEL. The JPY FEATURE has been heavily DOWN before. Stay tuned for the VIX INDEX. Currently VIX is getting somewhat DOWN. NZDJPY Price is based on DYNAMIC LEVELS. ⛔️ Currently the SENTIMENT of the OVERALL MARKET is being POSITIVE. Also, even though the EQUITIES are turning a bit red, we are not affected by the VOLATILITY DOWN. Also COMMODITIES still shows a UP SIDE BIAS. There is a NEUTRAL BIAS currently on the market. We can not say for sure whether the MARKET SENTIMENT is UP or DOWN. But according to the data available so far we can say that MARKETS RISK is turning ON. ⛔️ NZDJPY Price may be slightly higher at 88.77 LEVEL according to MARKET STRUCTURE. Then the NZDJPY price can be DROP. This is because they have already decided that the Central Bank of New Zealand will inevitably raise their statutory reserve ratio next week.
by benny_marshall
NZ dollar falls as FOMC talks toughThe New Zealand dollar has extended its losses on Thursday and dropped below the 69 line. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6887, down 0.42% on the day. The hawkishness of the FOMC minutes was not a surprise, given that the markets had heard this from Fed members George and Brainard a day earlier. Still, a hawkish Fed that is accelerating its tightening is good news for the US dollar. The minutes signalled that the Fed plans to scale back the balance sheet (quantitative tightening) at a faster pace than previously expected, cutting up to USD 95 billion/month starting in September. The minutes hinted that the Fed could implement super-size 1/2 point hikes in the coming months, in order to curb red-hot inflation. Brainard said the same thing on Tuesday, but this was noteworthy because she has been of the most dovish members of the FOMC. Clearly, the Fed is concerned that the traditional 0.25% rate moves may not suffice to wrestle down high inflation. The Fed has been behind the ball in tackling inflation, and firing 0.50% salvos is one way to demonstrate to critics that it is taking strong action. The Fed has been telegraphing the markets that 1/2 point increases are on the table, in order to minimize market volatility. Still, the sheer size of such hikes would likely provide a boost to the US dollar, even if they have been priced in. The RBNZ is well into its rate-hike cycle and has raised the cash rate from a record-low 0.25% to 1.00%. The central bank holds a policy meeting next week and there is a strong likelihood of a rate increase. RBNZ forecasts show rates rising to 2.5% over the next 12 months and peaking at about 3.25% at the end of 2023.
by OANDA
NZDUSD: 70 Cents A Likely Target For The KIWI After Breakout!Price is at a critical resistance level! The 0.68600 level needs to be cleared for the price to target the next high which happens to be the psychological resistance of 70 Cents. Looking at the main daily chart, the descending channel although violated, has not really been broken. The resistance at 0.68600 is preventing this from being a reality. Once the daily candle closes above this level, we can likely assume that the resistance has been broken and the price is ready to climb further supported by the ascending trendline. An ideal 1:1 risk to reward ratio needs to be balanced for the trade to be executed. With both take profit and stop loss visible on the main chart, the entry point needs to be adjusted ideally to match 1:1 RR. Cheers, I hope you find this insight helpful. Please LIKE & FOLLOW for more regular insights into other major currency pairs.
Long
by FX618Analysis
EUR/NZD Sell Opportunity: Breaks Below Trendline Support This week on Tuesday, EUR/NZD dropped below the long-term trendline support ahead of RBNZ rate decision and monetary policy. RBNZ expects a rise official cash rate from 0.75% to 1.00%. Despite a sharp downside in the global equity space on further escalating military tensions between Ukrainian and pro-Russia separatist/Russia forces and continued Russia/NATO tensions in the background, EUR/NZD has dropped below the critical trendline resistance level and creates a selling opportunity. From the current zone, 1.6950 was the trendline support zone. Now it has become a trendline resistance. So, as long as EUR/NZD is below the trendline support, it still has chances to drop further. The market expects RBNZ to rise 50BPS though RBNZ forecasted only 25 BP. Any surprise rate hike like 50BP or more will Send EUR/NZD 1.6500 price zone or more. From the present rate, immediate support is identified is at the 1.6840 price zone. Breaking below 1.6840, our final target to the downside is 1.6500.
Short
by Gold_Trading_Expert
GBP/NZD Double Top in Play as RBNZ Hikes RatesThe New Zealand Dollar gained after the RBNZ raised interest rates to 1% form 0.75% in February. On the 4-hour chart, GBP/NZD confirmed a close under a bearish Double Top I have been closely following since last week: www.dailyfx.com This may hint at reversing the uptrend from November, with immediate support as the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1.9890. Other levels below include 50%, 61.8% and 78.6% at 1.9691, 1.9492 and 1.9208 respectively. Overturning the bearish projection entails a confirmatory close above the 2.0487 - 2.0535 resistance zone. FX_IDC:GBPNZD
by QM_Dubrovsky