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Rbnz

Sell NZD/USD at 0.6705 – Westpac Analysts at Westpac are recommending to sell NZD/USD pair at 0.6705 levels for the target price of 0.6500, while maintaining trailing a stop loss of 0.6800. Key Quotes “Rationale: We expect RBNZ to cut OCR by 25bp to 1.25% on 7 August, and signal potential for more. We expect a follow-up cut in November to 1.0%, with a risk this is delivered in September, and the OCR ultimately falls below 1.0%. Domestic activity is weaker than the RBNZ had forecast. Markets are pricing 20bp of easing in August, and 42bp by November, implying markets should fall further if our forecasts prove correct. NZ-US yield spreads have explained much of the NZD’s recent gains, but they should soon become a headwind: markets have priced in plenty for the Fed (100bp) but arguably not enough for the RBNZ. Technically, NZD/USD’s 3c rise since May looks corrective, and may be giving way to a revisit of May’s 0.6500 low.” www.fxstreet.com Above is the link to the original article. Shall there be any updates i will post them in the thread below. INSTANT ENTRY AT AROUND: 0.6700 LEVEL STOP LOSS: 0.68000 TAKE PROFIT: 0.65000 RR: 1:1.9 TYPE: SHORT
Short
by FX618Analysis
NZDUSD - Short Setup in Play as RBNZ "considers" QENZD may be reversing. It's early days yet but the Bird fell after Bloomberg reported that the RBNZ is looking to refresh their unconventional policy strategy. “This year the Reserve Bank has begun scoping a project to refresh our unconventional monetary policy strategy and implementation. This is at a very early stage,” the RBNZ said in response to an Official Information Act request for work on non-standard policy measures. We like selling with feeder-stakes (small positions) at current levels, looking to add if the move grows legs.
Short
by Sam_Eder
Excellent SWING TRADE SHORT opportunity for NZDUSD!Have a look at the main chart, where the pennant on the weekly pattern has been broken!. At the moment both technical and fundamental factors are with this trade setup and the price will likely target the next support that lies at 0.64000 level. The above link leads to the trade setup details on this pair. Please read the related ideas section too on the fundamental analysis behind this trade ENTRY LEVEL: AROUND 0.67500 TAKE PROFIT: 0.64000' STOP LOSS: 0.70000 All in all its an excellent swing trade opportunity with very high probability. shall there be any updates i shall provide them in the attached link above. Please leave a LIKE and Follow me if you would like to receive further analysis and trade setups. cheers and thanks
Short
by FX618Analysis
NZDCHF Aiming To Hit 0.63500 Level!Have a look at the main chart where the monthly TF shows the price confined in a long term triangle pattern which has been respected on numerous occasions, especially the upside trendline of the triangle. The EMA 50 has been respected too in this case and shall the monthly candle close below the 0.67000 level, we have a very good chance that this price will likely hit the next support that lies at 0.63500 level. I am already SHORT on the NZDUSD and i will not risk taking this trade for another SHORT as they are both heavily correlated! Nonetheless its a very good trade and overall we are likely to see NZD and AUD both depreciate this year. This just represents my outlook on this pair. shall i close the NZDUSD active trade early this pair would be my go to pair in the future. i will update the trade details if the criteria meets. cheers
Short
by FX618Analysis
NZDUSD Technical Analysis: Testing Key Support in RBNZ News Technical View : ============== Key Support & Resistance Zones R: 0.6920 – 0.6970 S: 0.6680 – 0.6730 NZDUSD Breakout and stable 0.6670 level then touch 0.6720 level and more because Wednesday coming big news in NZD like : Official Cash Rate/ RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement/ RBNZ Rate Statement / RBNZ Press Conference etc. Very important news for NZD. NZD moving depend on this news . GBPNZD / EURNZD big move on this news minimum 150/250 pips moving. so carefully trade this time . NEWS: ===== The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) survey concerning second quarter 2019 inflation expectations showed the price pressure to remain mostly unaffected at 2.01% versus the previous post of 2.02%. A monetary policy meeting by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) could gain the immediate attention of the Kiwi traders as Australia is the largest customer of New Zealand. Also, it is expected that RBA’s rate-cut could be followed by the RBNZ’s rate change. Kiwi gave little reaction to inflation expectations amid trade news. RBNZ grabs the spotlight with GDT price index being an intermediate data to follow.
Short
by Saleh11
1
NZDJPY Likely To Drop Towards 69.000 IF the Support Breaks Looking at the chart, the monthly TF gives an overall technical perspective to where this pair might be headed. the three green lines are concrete support and resistance levels traced from the monthly charts. Shall the current or future candle (Monthly candle) close below the 73.000 level (green line support) we can confirm that the triangle has been breached and the price would likely fall towards 69.000 level thereafter. Fundamentally, the NZD is expected to loose most of its value this year as the economy is not doing too well plus the currency is highly overvalued against the USD too. This just represents my outlook on this pair and its not a trade signal. shall the criteria meet i will post the trade details in a new post. Cheers
Short
by FX618Analysis
Time to price in market events, NZD weaknessNew Zealand Dollar The New Zealand Dollar fell sharply after the rate decision from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. There were no changes to monetary policy but they did make clear that the next move would be a rate cut. Market participants jumped on this open and clear language to capitalize and price in what would most likely happen in the near future. Trading the NZD could be done through a number of vehicles including the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and Pound Sterling where the volatility is present and the sentiment is neutral. Currently NZDJPY has broken below the 200EMA and solidified there. The Yen will soak up any weakness the Kiwi may show in the time to come before the next interest rate decision from the RBNZ. A short trade could be enacted from the current price with a stop loss at the level of 75.58 and a take profit at 74.00
Short
by YaroslavBirchenko
1
KIWI Too OVERVALUED Vs The USD! Will it Slump To 64 cents ?With the RBNZ already killing off the NZD by being more dovish than expected in their rate announcement yesterday, the kiwi fell against the USD overnight erasing in the process nearly 2 weeks gains!. For what many thought that the triangle has already broken to the upside just by the end of last week, it now seems it was a false breakout and rather unsurprisingly its now threatening to break the trendline of the triangle! If the break does occur, the price will aim to test the area that had been tested before in the previous swing some few months ago. 0.64000 becomes the immediate target of this potential breakout! Moreover fundamentally, the kiwi is too overvalued against the USD which is also visible in the both of their interest rates with USD having a more higher interest rate. This year the kiwi is being speculated to depreciate against the USD and this might start to happen once the trendline is broken. adding salt to the wounds, the RBNZ might even cut OCR in their nexr meeting which may very well trigger a small rally enough to dump the NZD and pile the selling pressure. The RR on this one is pretty good too (1:1.5). i am already SHORTING the NZDUSD but from the technical perspective its best to wait until the trendline breaks and retests before making an entry. this is just my analysis on this pair and its not a trading signal. shall the criteria meet i will post the trade details in the thread. cheers
Short
by FX618Analysis
NZDCAD buy opportunity, SHS formingThe NZDCAD pair broke above a long-term trendline which has started in late 2016 and formed what looks like an inverse SHS pattern. A daily close above 0.9300 would mark the pattern as triggered and confirm a buy setup. This week's RBNZ rate meeting will likely create volatility in NZD pairs and either confirm our bullish bias or put the trade on hold. Like our analysis? Please hit the "Like" button and let us know your views in the comment section. Join us on Telegram -> t.me
Long
by MujkanovicFX
A Close Above MONTHLY 50 EMA Could Take NZDJPY Towards 83.500 Price is currently confined in a descending channel or wedge on the weekly charts with multiple tests occurring on both sides of the channel making it more and more potent if a breakout occurs! The blue lines on the main charts represent the support and resistance levels drawn from the monthly charts and as of few weeks ago the 75.000 level was respected and now the price seems to be heading towards the next resistance that lies in the 83.000 region. For this to take place the channel on the weekly charts must be broken convincingly and most importantly the MONTHLY 50 EMA must be broken to the upside (the monthly price candle must close above the monthly 50 EMA). Have a look at the picture below for further illustrations Once all these take place and fundamentals starts to align with technical picture, we can take this pair LONG with swing trading chance towards the 83.5000 level. On the flip side, shall the trendline gets rejected again on the weekly charts, then we can take this pair SHORT (day trading chance) towards the support beneath at 74.5000 level. see the image below for the technical aspects for the SHORT trade If the wedge is broken, the daily 50 EMA must be broken too in the process for the SHORT trade to be confirmed. Once this all takes place we wait for the price to slightly retrace before making an entry Shall there be any updates i would provide them in a new thread. this just represents my personal technical analysis behind this pair.
Long
by FX618Analysis
A Close Above Daily EMA 50 Might Take EURNZD To 1.69000 level !1.65000 level represents the concrete support level drawn from the Monthly charts, which has been clearly rejected and the price now aims at breaking the channel that it is confined in and close above the daily 50 EMA! A convincing close above daily 50 EMA needs to take place, thereby giving further confluence that the price is headed towards the 1.69000 level! 1.69000 level is the area where the weekly 50 EMA is present and can often act as a dynamic support and resistance and therefore our target would be that level. In the future if the price breaks the weekly 50 EMA we can opt to take this pair further LONG to the next resistance (THE RED LINES ON THE CHART) On the fundamental aspects the AUD and NZD are both set to depreciate this year with the reason being they are too overvalued at the time. I feel a drop in NZD against the USD will likely happen soon and this will inturn have great impact on the EURNZD too. It remains to be seen if the technical aspects meet in the coming days. shall there be any trade entries i will post them in a new thread. this just represents my analysis and outlook of this pair. cheers
Long
by FX618Analysis
NZD shorts against JPY longs in a rising-rate worldWe have a few very important announcements coming during the European session today... Here we are starting to become more selective with AUD and NZD, both against JPY should see further downside as the rising-rate environment remains intact. => The RBNZ disappointed markets earlier in the week sending yields higher across the curve. NZD caught a bid for these flows, however we see this knee jerk reaction to be over and an opportunity to load shorts. => Any possibility of hikes from RBNZ has been pushed back well into 2021 and given the length of time between now and then, we have plenty of room to continue playing the downside in NZD. On the technical side of things a test of the two support levels seems a done deal and for those looking to add AUDJPY shorts to the basket too we have attached the related idea with our key levels. Initial targets found at 74.2 with our second target 72.7 within reach. Please continue your support with a thumbs up or comment and thanks for helping us continue to grow further. Best of luck.
Short
by ridethepig
NZDJPY: Daily uptrend...$NZDJPY has a nice chart signal here, we have already entered longs, but it may give us a second chance to enter or add to longs on dips today or tomorrow. Stops have to be at least below today's open, or slightly lower. Target range is detailed on chart, both time and price. I guess $XAUUSD will be sideways or down for a few days, while $USDJPY rallies. Tomorrow Powell will give a speech, and the RBNZ will publish a monetary policy statement and interest rates decision, as well as publishing inflation expectations data. The $NZDJPY crooss pair offers a more interesting vehicle to ride the move in #USDJPY with better risk/reward than the majors. You could try to capture upside in risk on assets, the $NZDUSD, or $AUDUSD pairs, or shorting risk off assets, but it might be riskier than this trade...specially considering the relative strength of the New Zealand dollar vs the Aussie dollar for instance (which made me choose this pair over the $AUDJPY counterpart which might also be viable). Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
RBNZ & RBABy Andria Pichidi - February 13, 2019 RBNZ held the official cash rate at 1.75%, matching widespread expectations. RBNZ reiterated its pledge to keep the rate at the current level through 2019 and 2020. "The direction of our next OCR move could be up or down", they repeated. The statement for keeping rates low, for longer than what has been stated so far, along with the statement that OCR could move either way, came in contrast with the highly dovish stance that markets anticipated. This explains Kiwi's spike, with NZDUSD jumping to 0.6851 from 0.6730 ahead of the announcement and during the conference session. RBNZ seems to be following a similar policy path to the RBA. Last week, RBA announced steady rates  at 1.50%, whilst its statement was consistent with no change in the current rate setting through 2019. Overall, the RBA maintained its view that inflation will eventually pick up, although it will take a bit longer than anticipated. Given the Fed's dovish shift, the risk was for the RBA to take a decidedly dovish turn, which Lowe and company did not. Despite the similarity between RBNZ and RBA, New Zealand continues to present an overall fair to middling economy with prospects of any kind of policy changes, as the labour market strengthens and inflation is nearly at the mid of the 1-3% target. This comes in contrast to the Australian economy, which looks erratic given sharp property price declines, despite the "strong" labour market. Furthermore, Aussie's future performance depends greatly on how the Chinese economy evolves, given the strong symbiotic link the Australian economy has with China's. Markets remain in a cautious state due to the current US-China trade talks, which presents binary risk for the Aussie given China's outsized demand for Australian exports. AUD has been trending lower over most of the last year, having declined about 12-13% over this period, largely as a consequence of the eruption of the US-China trade war. On the other hand, Kiwi's future performance is not highly linked to China since the NZ economy is not as exposed to a Chinese slowdown as Australia. Consequently, despite the common policy stance between New Zealand and Australia, all the above arguments suggest that NZD is likely to remain stable in comparison to AUD, something that could give AUDNZD a downleg until it gradually breaches a possible parity. Levels to be watched, starting from immediate to long term Support levels are : 1.0395, 1.0370, 1.0320, 1.0235. Resistances come at 1.055, 1.0667 and 1.0712. Come join us today at HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Short
by HotForex