Get started

Rbob

Smart Money Positioned to LONG RBOB - COT StrategyDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence. COT Strategy Long (RBOB) My COT strategy has me on alert for long trades in RBif we get a confirmed bullish change of trend on the Daily timeframe. COT Commercial Index: Buy Signal Extreme Positioning: Commercials max long of last 3 years - bullish. Small specs max short of last 3 years - bullish. OI Analysis: Multi week down move has seen OI increase. When OI increases, we need to ask "who is causing the OI increase?". In this case, OI is increasing as Commercials add to long positioning, which is bullish. ADX: Paunch forming (but not confirmed until ADX rollover). This is a significant "end of trend" indication. Front Month Premium - bullish. COT Small Spec Index: Buy Signal Supplementary Indicators: %R & Stochastic Remember, this is not a "Long Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the upside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the upside. Good luck & good trading.
NYMEX:RBV2024Long
by Tradius_Trades
RBOB Gasoline - COT & Fundamental Backed Long Trade SetupDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is not a recommendation to take a trade. This is for purely educational purposes only. RBOB (Gasoline) is "Set Up" for Longs. This does not mean I am longing this blindly right now. The tools that I am using to formulate this trade idea are not timing tools. We use technical entry techniques to time our entry. Lets get to it. Commercials are extremely long this market. The last time they were this long was in 2010, which just so happened to preclude a massive bull move in RBOB. When Commercials are at a significant extreme, we want to pay attention. Small speculators are very short. In fact, they are more short than they have been in the last 3 years. The public is generally wrong, and we want to fade whatever they are doing. Advisor sentiment is very bearish, which is actually bullish. If the advisors are telling all their clients to Sell gasoline, who is left to sell? For weeks, OI has been decreasing while Commercials have added to their long positioning. If the public and large speculators are not interested in this market, while the commercials are getting heavily long, this is bullish and indicates this market is ready for a bullish move. Cyclically, we get a bit of a mixed bag. The decennial pattern is supportive of some upside soon, and the annual cycle is supportive of a major low in September.
NYMEX:RBU2024
by Tradius_Trades
Fundamentally Setup Markets For This WeekI have identified the following markets are "set-up" for moves of some significance. This video goes into the fundamental reasons for these trade ideas. NOTE: I am not looking to go long/short these markets immediately. I will wait for a change in trend on the Daily to get involved with these markets. The tools used to identify these trade setups are not timing tools. The tools do give us an idea of how market participants with significant size and intelligence (commercials) are positioning themselves. The tools also give us an idea of sentiment, valuation, seasonality, and also an idea of what the (usually wrong) public/small traders are doing. LONGS: HEATING OIL (HO) GASOLINE (RBOB) MEXICAN PESO (6M) SOYBEANS (ZS) COTTON (CT) SUGAR (SB) SHORTS: EURO CURRENY (6E) JAPANESE YEN (6J) SWISS FRANC (6S) GOLD (GC) 30 YEAR TREASURIES (ZB) Good Luck & Good Trading.
ICEUS:SBV2024
by Tradius_Trades
🔝 US Gas prices become more affordable as key breakdown is hereAmericans could breathe a sigh of relief with gas prices set to be more affordable this year. US gas prices hit their highest 52 Weeks in August and September ahead of Labor Day, with the national average standing at $3.82 a gallon FRED:GASREGW , per AAA Gas Prices . Gasoline prices hit summertime levels in over a decade even as the driving season comes to a halt, as a result of rising crude-oil prices TVC:USOIL driven by production cuts. Brent crude TVC:UKOIL , the international benchmark, jumped to $90 a barrel earlier is September for the first time in 2023 after both Saudi Arabia and Russia extended oil production cuts of 1.3 million barrels a day through December 2023 in a bid to maintain price stability. Higher US gas prices NYMEX:RB1! are a problem for the Federal Reserve, which has been trying to tame historically high inflation. The central bank has already hiked interest rates ECONOMICS:USINTR by more than 500 basis points since March 2022, helping lower the pace of consumer-price increases to 3.2% in July from last year's highs above 9%. But the jump in fuel prices is threatening to derail the progress the Fed has made in taming inflation. As a result, just after September, 2023 FOMC meeting market participants are waiting one or maybe two dovish Fed's Rate price actions in 2024. At the same time before September, 2023 Federal Reserve meeting, market expectations were about three cuts, near to four. (up to 100 b.p.). Meanwhile juts a take a look what technical picture in RBOB Gasoline futures RB1! price says. Near the middle of August, 2023 Gasoline futures prices turned massively down, due to seasonal backwardation in RBOB futures contracts, where autumn RBOB futures contracts are usually to be trade lower vs. summer RBOB futures contracts. Moreover, in the last day of Q3'23 RBOB futures price turned firmly lower, breaking down the major trendline support that was actual all the time from disinflationary Covid-19 era. Moreover weekly SMA(52) is broken down also. In a conclusion, I have to say that retail gasoline prices are usually to follow the major trend, within one or up to two months.
NYMEX:RB1!
by Pandorra
GASOLINE futures fall to 5-week low on low demand,high inventoryGasoline futures have dropped to a five-week low of $2.6 per gallon, primarily due to an unexpected increase in inventory and a decline in demand. Recent data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicates a decrease in gas demand from 8.936 million to 8.519 million b/d last week. Moreover, the total domestic gasoline stock has increased by 1.3 million bbl, while markets had anticipated a draw of 1.267 million. Additionally, WTI crude prices have been falling since hitting a five-month high in April, amid concerns that a slowdown in global growth could dampen fuel demand. Furthermore, OPEC+ has announced a surprising reduction of output by 1.6 million barrels per day for the remainder of 2023, which may further impact fuel prices. From a technical standpoint, the current price is within a bearish flag on a short continuation pattern. The next potential support area is at $2.0 If the price breaks the dynamic trendline of the channel, we may witness a further drop in gasoline prices.
NYMEX:RB1!Short
by FOREXN1
9
Gas just got expensiveIn the chart is the M2 adjusted price of gasoline matched to the current price. It measures the portion of total dollars it would take to purchase a gallon of gasoline. Essentially it's a chart of dollar strength in gasoline terms. Chart up = strong gas, weak dollar. Chart down = weak gas, strong dollar. The white trendline in the center is the longterm linear regression, the center of the logarithmic price distribution (but only back to 1986). To calculate this symbol yourself: RB1! price = 3.798 RB1! / WM2NS price = 0.0001758 3.798 / 0.0001758 = 21604 Now we simply enter RB1! /WM2NS*21604 to get our current price. What the chart does not show is that over the years, public ownership of the dollar supply has gone down. As you pump unwarranted dollars into the economy, you get diminishing returns on real gdp growth and thus a reduction in productivity. No measurements are being made, dollars are only being thrown into the system. More doing, less thinking and measuring. Therefore, people have less overall dollars, relative to the total supply of dollars, to spend on gasoline as they did in previous decades. For example, around the 1970s, the FED could squeeze out about 70 cents in GDP per 1 dollar printed. (Actually they didn't squeeze anything, they just sat on their ass) Fast forward to 2022, these reckless and dogmatic pseudo-scientists are getting around 30 cents per dollar printed. If people are economically half as productive overall, PERHAPS everyday people will only be able to afford about HALF as much stuff and therefore half as much gasoline as when it was just as expensive in the past. Just something to think about, seeing as how regular citizens didn't get much of that money. Those who work the hardest are not worthy of the easy money printed by our glorious church of the FED. Consider how gasoline peaked around 7$ multiple times, in '85, '90, '05, '06. Now imagine if society was half as productive back then, that's basically saying it's 14$ in today's terms if you account for money productivity AND money supply expansion. Probably not the most settling idea. Good luck and hedge your bets.
NYMEX:RB1!
by fringe_chartist
RBOB - (RB) Gasoline The SPR release was a non-event, why would it be. Less asphalt is preferable. Heavy Sours are not ever going to relieve Price. The exception is DOT projects. _____________________________________________ April to June as the Flip for unleaded fuel production. Refineries lead this transition and switch over to summer- blend production in March and April. In the warmer months, gasoline has a greater chance of evaporating. Refiners reduce the chance of gas evaporation in your car during the s summer by producing gasoline blends that have lower Reid vapor pressure, or lower volatility. This isn't going to affect price this year. ______________________________________________ The Variant will, demand for Gasoline Liquid fuels will increase by 3.5 million b/d in 2022 to average 100.5 million. Given demand is well below 100 Million, we doubt this. War Drum will likely have the desired effect and those are rapidly building Globally as China has become an Isolationist. Russia is keen on pushing back against an attempt to regain the upper hand in NATO for the purposes of putting Putin in a corner. 2022 has the potential to be a very challenging year on many fronts. Price volatility will increase dramatically as Energy moves in far greater swings. ________________________________________________ There is a rather Large Daily GAp Above.
NYMEX:RB1!
by HK_L61
Bearish Flag Pattern Setup on Gasoline, Target at 2Trend Analysis The main view of this trade idea is on the 4-Hour Chart. Gasoline futures (RBOB) appears to be in a bearish flag pattern setup. The pole of the flag can be seen from the sharp decline from 2.55 highs to the initial low at 2.31. Then RBOB began to gingerly channel lower and is currently retesting the 2.31 support level. If RBOB breaks below that support, the futures contract is expected to decline towards 2. A negation of this move will be observed if RBOB breaks above the resistance trendline towards 2.35. From a Daily perspective, RBOB is pulling back from the 2.55 highs. Next levels of support on the Daily Chart is seen around the 2.10 price level. Technical Indicators On the 4-Hour Chart the moving averages (MAs) are above the RBOB price. Also there have been negative crossovers on the short (50-MA), medium (100-MA) and long (200-MA) fractal moving averages. The RSI is below 50 with the KST recently having a negative crossover. Recommendation The recommendation will be to go short at market, with a stop loss at 2.35 and a target of 2. This produces a risk/reward ratio of 3.39. Disclaimer The views expressed are mine and do not represent the views of my employers and business partners. Persons acting on these recommendations are doing so at their own risk. These recommendations are not a solicitation to buy or to sell but are for purely discussion purposes.
NYMEX:RB1!Short
by Ceddy86
RB - RBOB Unleaded GasIn_Flay_Shun - EX - Food & Energy isn't working out too well. Unleaded Gasoline: The Trend it is said - IS Your Friend October 25, 2021 3.476 October 18, 2021 3.416 October 11, 2021 3.36 October 04, 2021 3.285 September 27, 2021 3.271 September 20, 2021 3.28 September 13, 2021 3.262 September 06, 2021 3.273 August 30, 2021 3.237 August 23, 2021 3.243 August 16, 2021 3.272 August 09, 2021 3.269 August 02, 2021 3.256 July 26, 2021 3.232 July 19, 2021 3.247 July 12, 2021 3.227 July 05, 2021 3.216 June 28, 2021 3.185 June 21, 2021 3.153 June 14, 2021 3.161 June 07, 2021 3.128 May 31, 2021 3.119 May 24, 2021 3.112 May 17, 2021 3.118 May 10, 2021 3.051 May 03, 2021 2.981 April 26, 2021 2.962 April 19, 2021 2.945 April 12, 2021 2.939 April 05, 2021 2.945 March 29, 2021 2.941 March 22, 2021 2.954 March 15, 2021 2.94 March 08, 2021 2.857 March 01, 2021 2.796 February 22, 2021 2.717 February 15, 2021 2.588 February 08, 2021 2.548 February 01, 2021 2.495 January 25, 2021 2.478 January 18, 2021 2.464 January 11, 2021 2.403 January 04, 2021 2.336 December 28, 2020 2.33 December 21, 2020 2.311 December 14, 2020 2.247 December 07, 2020 2.246 November 30, 2020 2.211 November 23, 2020 2.194 November 16, 2020 2.202
NYMEX:RB1!
by HK_L61
New Highs in Corn Corn probes above $6 for the first time since 2013 Farmers will favor beans Keep an eye on gasoline and ethanol prices Corn continues to pop going into the planting and growing seasons- It’s all about the weather Backwardation as the market has high hopes for 2021 output In late April 2020, the corn price fell to its lowest level since 2008 when the continuous corn futures contract found a bottom at $3.0025 per bushel. The pandemic pushed prices lower across all asset classes. Corn is the primary ingredient in US ethanol production. The ethanol mandate that requires a blend of gasoline and biofuel in the US closely ties corn’s price to crude oil and gasoline. In April 2020, crude oil fell below zero to a low of negative $40.32 per barrel. Gasoline prices declined to 37.60 cents per gallon wholesale in March 2020, the lowest price since 1999. The price carnage in the energy sector and selling in all markets pushed corn to the $3 level where it found a bottom. Last week, corn moved to its highest price since July 2013 at nearly double the April 2020 low. Nearby May futures probed above the $6 per bushel level. Corn probes above $6 for the first time since 2013 On April 15, corn futures put in the most recent high when they traded to $6.015 per bushel on the nearby March futures contract. The chart highlights eight consecutive months of gains in the corn market as of mid-April 2021. A close above the $5.6425 level at the end of April will mark the ninth straight monthly price increase in the coarse grain. Open interest, the total number of long and short positions in the corn futures arena has been rising with the grain’s price. Increasing open interest as the price of a futures market rises is typically a validation of a bullish trend. Monthly price momentum and relative strength indicators are in overbought conditions, but they continue to rise. Monthly historical volatility at 22.31% signifies the rally is slow and steady. Corn futures are bullish, with the price at its highest level since July 2013. The next upside target is $7.30 per bushel, that month’s peak, which is a gateway to the 2012 $8.4375 all-time high in the corn futures market. Keep an eye on gasoline and ethanol prices The US ethanol mandate ties corn’s price to gasoline. The US is the world’s leading corn producer and exporter. Corn is the input into US ethanol processing. In Brazil, sugar is the input. Like corn, sugar prices have been rallying over the past months as the demand for ethanol rises with gasoline prices. The chart shows that gasoline futures rose from the lowest price of this century at 37.6 cents per gallon in March 2020 to the highest level since 2018 at $2.17 per gallon in March 2021. Higher gasoline prices have pushed ethanol to a multi-year peak. The monthly ethanol futures chart illustrates that the biofuel’s cost has risen to its highest level since December 2014 at $2.01 per gallon. Higher ethanol prices support higher corn prices. Continue reading the full article using the link below. Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading.
CBOT:ZC1!Long
by Andy_Hecht