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Why is the S&P500 ready to go short again?Why is the S&P500 ready to go short again? This question can't be answer, I'm not a magician and no one will know what the market is going to do, but let's see what's giving me the hint of the short idea. Let's start from the Real GDP . We're going to consider the Real GDP which I'll be calling GDP during the post. After doing some research you can see how the S&P is directly correlated with the GDP, and that the GDP is directly correlated with the S&P, if one goes down in most cases the other one goes down and vice versa. If we lag the GDP by 6 months, we can see how over 80% of the times if the GDP goes in a direction, within 6 months will be followed by the S&P. There is only one scenario where we're not interested into trading, which is the ones where the GDP goes down and the S&P goes up. This is the most important rule in analyzing the market. If we want to see how the S&P is going to move than we have to predict the GDP, how can we predict the GDP? By looking at the Macroeconomics and Microeconomics data. In this post I'll only take into consideration the US Yield Curve otherwise the post is going to be too long and y'all lazy people won't read it. According to Investopedia, the yield curve graphs the relationship between bond yields and bond maturity. More specifically, the yield curve captures the perceived risks of bonds with various maturities to bond investors. The U.S. Treasury Department issues bonds with maturities ranging from one month to 30 years. As bonds with longer maturities usually carry higher risk, such bonds have higher yields than do bonds with shorter maturities. Due to this, a normal yield curve reflects increasing bond yields as maturity increases. However, the yield curve can sometimes become flat or inverted. In a flat yield curve, short-term bonds have approximately the same yield as long-term bonds. An inverted yield curve reflects decreasing bond yields as maturity increases. Such yield curves are harbingers of an economic recession. The S&P is also in a bear market since it's lost the 20% from its highest point and once our fundamental analysis is done, we can move on the technical part, it's not useless but can give us a good timing. Here in the chart, you can see the first cup and the second cup which are giving us the first hint of a continuation in down trend. Obviously, we need more confirmations but that's a first suggestion of what's going to happen. I know it's a short and quick post, but I'll update this or create a new post once I understand how the ideas section of TradingView works :) Good luck traders!
FX:SPX500Short
by DennisMantineo
Real yields vs. Gold | Convergence of the DecadeFor the first time since April 2010, the yield on a 10-year US Treasury note hit 3.9%, as expectations of higher interest rates to control sky-high inflation continued to make people less interested in buying government debt. In September, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the third time in a row, to a target range of 3% to 3.25% . Money markets now expect another 75 bps hike in November. Policymakers have also cut their expectations for economic growth in 2022 by a lot. In June, they thought the GDP would grow by 1.7% , but now they think it will only grow by 0.2%. In the meantime, the 2-year Treasury yield went above 4.3 %, which is the highest it has been since 2007. This made the difference between the 10-year yield and the 2-year yield even bigger and flipped the yield curve even more. On Tuesday, the price of an ounce of gold went up toward $1,630, recovering slightly from a recent low as the relentless rise of the dollar slowed down. The yellow metal , on the other hand, stays close to its lowest levels in almost two years because people think that the US Federal Reserve will tighten money even more to stop inflation from rising. Monday, a lot of Fed officials said they were committed to fighting inflation, even if it meant some economic pain and more market volatility. Investors also looked at an OECD report in which the organization lowered its prediction for global economic growth in 2023 from 2.8% to 2.2% , citing aggressive monetary tightening in advanced economies and the length of the Russia-Ukraine war. Gold is often seen as a way to protect against inflation and economic instability. However, higher interest rates make it less appealing to hold non-yielding bullion , so investors continue to choose the dollar as a safe haven. The dollar index fell below 114 on Tuesday. It had hit a new 20-year high of 114.5 the day before, but investors took some profits and took a break after a sharp rally. The US dollar is still at a historical high against its major trading partners because people think that the Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy even more to stop rising inflation. Monday, a lot of Fed officials said they were committed to fighting inflation, even if it meant some economic pain and more market volatility. The dollar continued to be supported by investors' rush to it as a safe haven in the face of a very uncertain global economic outlook and growing fears of a recession. When compared to the euro and the yen, the dollar was close to multi-decade highs, but when compared to the pound, it was close to an all-time low because people didn't trust Britain's budget plan.
U
by TayFx
2
How to create a real-time US real rate on TradingView US real rates drive everything in markets right now, and if they are going up then so is the USD, while equity will head lower – for context, the 1-month rolling correlation (assessed by value, not percentage) between US 10-yr real rates and the USDX sits at +0.94 – so there is an incredibly strong relationship. This is also true of equities, where the US real rate (we deflate the 10yr Treasury for expected inflation) holds a rolling 1-month correlation with the US500 of -0.92 and NAS100 -0.89. It sounds pedantic that one day makes a difference, but the default setting for 5 and 10yr US TIPS/real rates on TradingView, which the source a feed directly from the St Louis Fed (FRED) website – comes under the code DFII10 – as per the FRED website this, however, has a two-day lag, so the benefit to traders is reduced. We can see the breakeven component of real rates on TradingView (10-year breakeven, or the expected US inflation rate to average over the coming 10yrs – code = T10YIE) actually holds no lag, so we can now use this to create a more up-to-date US 5 & 10-year ‘real’ Treasury rate. So there work around - In the search function simply subtract T10YIE from the US 10yr Treasury (US10Y) and you can get a real-time real rate – type TVC:US10Y-FRED:T10YIE – this is the 10yr real rate, but you can change it to TVC:US05Y-FRED:T5YIE for the 5-year. Higher real rates act as the true cost of capital – they are the handbrake on economic activity that the Fed need to be more cognisant of than anything. If 10yr real rates are going to 1%, and if this relationship holds, then I think the DXY re-tests the 15 June highs, although we are seeing real support for EURUSD, and the US500 likely heads to 3400 – 3200. It's here where most see a trough in the market and where we bake in a true recession – not just a technical one, but one where we see broad-based layoffs. As it is, a recession is certainly probable, but will the economy talk itself into something far more pronounced that really impacts consumption?
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TVC:US10YEducation
by Pepperstone
8
BEST TREDER CHAKIBE LAALIOU When the very same group of levels broke in the past (May 20 2017 and February 03 2020 weekly candles), the price always reached the previous Lower High, which acted as a Resistance. As a result, a solid approach is to buy now on the break-out and target on the medium-term just below the Resistance at $4.50. Then on the long-term we have to re-evaluate as, even though the Feb 10 2020 1W candle broke above the previous Lower High/ Resistance, it was a fake out and got rejected slightly above it. Of course it has to be said that this was the time of the start of the COVID crash. In any case, a break above the Resistance doesn't guarantee a long-term rally.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by chakibe1
PLD (Prologis) - Bearish Double Top Before Earnings - DailyPLD (Prologis) stock price has double-topped below $169 resistance on the daily chart. A bearish pullback is possible, if support levels are broken to the downside over time. PLD (Prologis) reports earnings on 04/19/2022. Utilize stop loss, position sizing, risk management. Entry (short): $165.33 Profit Target +7% (exit): $153.74 Stop Loss -3.5% (exit): $171.15 Note: XLRE real estate ETF has also begun to pullback on a daily chart. All content is Not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
NYSE:PLDShort
by NoFomoCharts
REITs looking bearish across the sector. H&S setups galoreFirst noticed this when I was scouting $ABR as a potential candidate for puts. I was looking for H&S setups, and liked the look of it. If you look at $ABR chart (daily or weekly) I imagine you'll see what I mean. Looks like we're peeling off the 20MA on the 1D to the downside. (Earnings are tomorrow, as a heads up) But yes, this led me to look at other names in the sector to try and add to my overall conviction. And I found that while some have already made their move to the downside - I also found a bunch of tickers that seem like they're on the cusp of breaking down Apart from $ABR the other names I'm looking at for moves toward downside in the sector are $O and $UDR . $O especially. In terms of more of a 'macro' view this year I think with increasing interest rates, inflation through the roof etc. I think real estate sector is going to feel some notable pain this year. But of course, theories only mean so much, let's just focus on the chart setups as/when they come. For now, the sector looks bearish The options I'm personally trading currently are: $ABR Mar 18th '22 $17.5p (cost basis 2.51) and $O Mar 18th '22 $67.5p (cost basis 2.05) Posting this moreso to draw attention to the sector in general, rather than my exact personal plays necessarily. Hence using $SCHH as the image for this 'idea' so people can see the sector overall. Note the rejection/inability to breach the 20MA on the weekly. I think this thing could sag and fold over. Hope this is helpful to some! And as always, please let me know your thoughts/comments if you have any! I'm always open to new ideas, viewpoints and constructive criticism etc.
AMEX:SCHHShort
by llbtrader5
1
I am very Bullish on MANA right now and I will explain whyI am very bullish on MANA right now as I am a fundamental analysist with analyzing both team, cash flow, cash distribution, and another part of the project before investing in anything. MANA is different than SAND boy with a recent boost. If you have some time to go to coinmarketcap and check the holder of MANA and SAND, you will realize top 100 holders of MANA only hold 78% MANA token (these holders include the Dev team, and I think they are the top 2 wallets with ~185mil MANA) compared to 96% SAND token. Remember, MANA has 1.8 Bil MANA tokens currently circulating with a Total of 2.1 Bil MANA tokens available (That is right, roughly 300-400 mill MANA are held by the MANA's Dev team). This is very decentralized! Compared to SAND with 800Mil token in circulation and the Dev team hold 2.2 Bil Token of SAND. You can also make a note of the MANA's price jump price from Nov 11 till Nov 15, and check the holder portfolio during this time. It shows the top 100 holders of MANA actually buy back MANA during that time to make the price jump from $2.5 to $3.6 and sell out the same MANA to make the price drop down to 2.9 during these 5 days. What happened is that people kept buying in and holding it for long rather than shortening on MANA. This is the very important key point here, the new MANA's holders majorly have an investor mentality for the long term. Since that buyback and sale from the top 100 MANA holder, the MANA price has been very stable growing up until now. The whole goal of MANA is not to make you a rich FOMO boy, but to distribute tokens to make it become more decentralized, and currently, it is the most decentralized metaverse out there with the lowest token percentage for top 100 holders. If you do the same analysis for SAND you will realize the top 100 holders in SAND and others have a very different strategy and they tend to have a longer time frame to accumulate and sell off the token. After we saw the price jump on Nov11-15, we can see how capable the MANA top 100 holders can do, however, the main point is MANA needs to be at a low price to attract more people to it. The one that is going to attract more is the real estate management companies. Within 24 hours, there was a Canadian real estate company purchased $2.5 Mil worth of land on Decentraland right on the fashion district. The article is following (you can google search it): ----------------------------------------------------------- "On Tuesday, a Canadian investment firm that focuses on decentralized finance (DeFi) called Tokens.com purchased nearly $2.5 million worth of virtual land in the platform Decentraland. Specifically, Tokens.com purchased 116 parcels of virtual land for a total of 618,000 MANA, the native currency of Decentraland, according to a company release. The company claimed the purchase represented the largest transaction of its kind to date. Tokens.com purchased the land through the virtual real estate firm Metaverse Group, which offers virtual land development services for clients. The purchase is equivalent to 6,090 square feet of physical land — which is approximately the size of 1.3 basketball courts. In mid-October, Tokens.com purchased a 50% stake in Metaverse Group for $1.68 million. Metaverse Group also sells and rents virtual land in the virtual world platforms Cryptovoxels, The Sandbox, Upland and Somnium. The purchased lots are based in Decentraland’s Fashion Street district and will be developed to accommodate the growing demand for fashion brands to showcase digital merchandise in the metaverse. “Fashion is the next massive area for growth in the metaverse,” said Sam Hamilton, Head of Content at the Decentraland Foundation, in a statement. “So it’s timely, and very exciting, that Metaverse Group has made such a decisive commitment with this land purchase in the heart of Decentraland’s fashion precinct.” Digital land is valued by the foot traffic it receives and its proximity to brands located within the metaverse, as The Block previously reported. " ----------------------------------------------------------- As you have read it throughout, accumulating MANA is actually turning out to be a good long-term investment because the real world is coming to know about MANA right now. MANA tokens will be needed for services and it is a great example of lithium/petrol in the metaverse world. Now coming back to the chart, the running price from $2.9 up until now $4 are made by major people of the community rather than the top 100 holders. It does not mean they don't think MANA is not potential, it just means they create room for accumulation before making moves. My chart has been able to predict correctly the move in the past 72 hours, so that is a good sign of my good sense lol! If MANA would be able to break the support line and run straight to $2.9 then it would be my dream as I am hoping it to drop down every day in the past 15 days. This is not financial advice and please invest responsibly!
Long
by Haizsama
7
The dollar country!For this one if the trend is your friend fibonacci must be your girl friend, we can see a very healthy accumulation on the weekly chart since may, the price tested the 4,94 about 2 times now and doesn't seem to be slowing down for another re-test any time soon doted line = 20%, dashed line = 50%, straight line = 100%, if the price breaks the 50% trend line we can expect another re-test at 4,94 however if the price breaks the 100% trend we should look for high pivot point and a down trend reaching for 4,25 but we can clearly see that this is just an accumulation and the trend is up so far, if we break the 6 dollar resistance it's pretty much a no coming back type of run.
Long
by JP17S
$COR: A CORE Position For A Deflationary Environment?Real Estate has seen some specific winners starting to emerge, however, as the Fed soon begins the tightening process, is it possible we still see more in the tank for IYR (REIT ETF) as the Dollar continues it's rally? Keep in mind, a rate hike currently isn't priced in until July of 2022 and the inflationary pressures have been strong but with some patience on the REIT investor's part. I do believe the company could be primed to make an early run before a defensive cycle emerges. I'll scale in and manage risk based on price / sentiment toward the defensive names as a whole.
NYSE:CORLong
by Fox_Technicals