Calgro settings itself for super upside in 2024W Formation has formed on Calgro M3.
We haven't had our breakout yet but it's most definitely forming higher lows. ANd it's above the 200MA with a predominant uptrend.
This is all great news for potential upside.
We'll set the first target at R6.03
FUNDAMENTALS:
Calgro M3, a South African property development company, has been experiencing a rally in its stock for several reasons:
Impressive Financial Performance:
Calgro M3 reported strong financial results for the fiscal year ending in February 2023.
This included a significant increase in earnings per share and overall revenue, demonstrating the company's ability to generate sustainable profits and manage costs effectively.
Robust Revenue Pipeline:
The company has a solid revenue pipeline in residential property development, with a forecast of R15.9 billion.
This includes over 22,000 opportunities and the inclusion of a major development project, Frankenwald, which is expected to add at least 20,000 opportunities.
Successful Residential Developments:
Calgro M3 has been successful in its residential property development segment, with a large number of completed and under-construction opportunities.
This success is a key driver of the company's revenue and growth prospects.
Realestate
SPG: Bearish Harami at Resistance and Bearish Deep Gartley PCZSimon Property Group has formed a Bearish Harami on the weekly at the PCZ of a Bearish Deep Gartley and Bearish Deep Crab, the PCZs happen to align with weekly Horizontal Resistance and may now lead to SPG making its way down to a 0.886 Retrace as the REITs continue down due to rising yields.
Mortgage Rates have fallen & at major supportGood Morning!
It certainly makes sense for #mortgagerates to follow the bond counterparts & go lower
The monthly chart shows the RSI weakening as it chugged higher.
LONG term, the 3rd chart, we see that rates overcame a STRONG RESISTANCE area & long downtrend, white line. We will soon see if it'll hold that new support, white line.
#RealEstate #InterestRate
"BULL MARKETS ARE BORN ON PESSIMISM"Did you come across several media reports, individuals and others betting on the crash of US economy and how everything will collapse.
Here is a quote by Sir John Templeton - "bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria".
So one can understand with the growing amount of pessimism all around as to which phase of the bull market we are in - yes, just the beginning.
The S&P Real Estate weekly chart shows the impulse move up (through march 2020 to dec 2021) and a subsequent 70% retracement(through dec 2021-oct 2023) of the same.
The index has now just completed a complex triple three correction (WXYXZ) and is all set to move up from here.
The index could double from the current levels in the coming 2-3 years time.
Note*- this is not an investment advice, please do your own research before making any investment decisions.
Welltower: Bearish Gartley with Bearish Div Looking to Fill GapWelltower is yet another Real Estate focused stock that I have been tracking in anticipation of its potential downside. Yesterday they had earnings and it was nothing that impressive, so I think the Bearish RSI Divergence at this PCZ will take over and bring it down to at least $53.40 to fill the downside gap from here
Simon Property Group: Bear Flag into Bearish BAMMSimon Property Group is going to close the month below a Bear Flag as the RSI breaks down and the MACD crosses bearishly.
If this Bear Flag plays out, it will begin to push SPG below the B point of this potential harmonic BAMM, which would only complete once SPG reaches the 0.886 at around the $47.30 level. SPG is simply yet another REITs play that I will be on the lookout for a major correction in.
Regional Banks Are Still in Serious Trouble!Traders,
For the second time this year, regional banks are threatening to cross on over an essential support that has carried us through this secular bull market for 14 (going on 15) years! If our support breaks, I fear that regional banks could drag everything else down with it. Remember, it is regional banks that hold the loans for much of commercial real estate. Much of commercial real estate went vacant during COVID. We are only now beginning to understand the wave of bankruptcies that are crashing in hard as a result!
Watch this line closely or stay tuned here and I will keep you up to speed as I observe any significant changes.
Stewdamus
Emaar: Buy Dubai Real Estate in Liquid FormEmaar
From Covid Low of mar 2020, it returned 4x in 3.5 years, more than the best real estate deal one could get.
And was liquid all the way.....okay liquid 5 days a week !!
At AED 6.3, its available due to the war like situation in Gaza. Load up at the current levels , the best high beta and liquid way to get exposure to Dubai Real Estate.
American Homes 4 Rent: Monthly 3 Black Crows Channel BreakdownAMH has confirmed 3 Black Crows on the Monthly Timeframe and has cracked below an ascending channel and the 21SMA. I expect that we will get severe follow-through as both the Rental Sector and the Real Estate Industry in general continue their decline into the higher interest rate environment.
BX: Evening Star Doji into Bearish BAMM Visible On the MonthlyBlackstone is about to confirm a Bearish Evening Star Doji on the Monthly Timeframe today and is about to break down from its RSI Channel. This could then escalate into a Bearish BAMM on the Macro that would take it all the way down to the 0.886 Retrace around $30.00
H&S and Dark Cloud Cover indicate short term bearish reversal?Heidelbergcement's future not looking good amid a raising interest rates environment for real estate promoters.
Technical analysis: Bearish
A Head and Shoulders pattern could be underway since Sep 2022 and once the stock has reached a double ceiling level at 77.50€. Besides, a Dark Cloud cover was formed on Friday 29th of September in the right shoulder and today's candle seems to be confirming the candlestick pattern prophecy, which would lead us to first support level ranging from 68.5-70.5€.
Beyond analysis and POV: Bearish and Bullish
The fact that Vonovia has frozen 60.000 apartments that were supposed to be built now also indicates a reduction of materials' demand to build houses and perhaps other real estate promoters have come up with the same decision. This means, less materials needed for now which could potentially affect Heidelbergcement's profits in the near future. However, the ISM Manufacturing PMI came better than expected for September (actual 49, exp. 47.7 prev. 47.6). This means, any short-term bearish reversal could not last long.
Fundamental analysis: All bullish considerations
The debt level is considered satisfactory with a net debt to equity ratio of 32.8%. Earnings Payout to Shareholders is 26%. P/E ratio = 7.5 while industry average is 9.1.
Could a Surge in Mortgage Rates Imperil the Housing Market?Over the past 18 months, U.S. mortgage rates have soared from 2.9% to 7.6%, their highest since 2001. Will this tremendous increase in mortgage rates cause the U.S. housing market to crash like it did in 2008?
On one hand, higher mortgages have led to a steady decrease in the number of new mortgages being issued. In recent weeks, the number of new mortgages has fallen to its lowest level since 1995.
On the other hand, there is a major difference between today and the period leading up to the global financial crisis: vacancy rates.
Vacancy rates are extremely low. Before the 2008 financial crisis, 10% of rental properties and 3% of owner-occupied properties were vacant. Today, only 6.4% of rental properties are vacant, near their lowest since 1985, while owner-occupied properties have a record low vacancy of 0.7%.
Home prices have stopped rising, but so far, they aren’t collapsing. Over the past year, the price of buying a home in the U.S. has fallen by about 1%, while rental costs have risen by around 8% as higher rates force many would-be buyers into the rental market.
If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
By Erik Norland, Executive Director and Senior Economist, CME Group
*Various CME Group affiliates are regulated entities with corresponding obligations and rights pursuant to financial services regulations in a number of jurisdictions. Further details of CME Group's regulatory status and full disclaimer of liability in accordance with applicable law are available below.
**All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
Real Estate? Then check O!OK, I'm still watching a couple of stocks and if I were thinking of allocating to real estate, I would definitely vote DCA now on this REIT
- A growth stock with a long-term, regular monthly dividend of +- 5%
Liquidity, scalability, no worries...
Thinking about allocating to real estate? Now is the time to start with DCA..
Very ConfusingTrend
No doubt for now upp is under pressure and we are not seeing any buying pressure. People are waiting for the news to get a clear direction. If there is any positive news coming out from upp this stock will fly and it will go past 0.50 very quickly.
If you are holding this stock for now its in a chart pattern and at the support zone. If it breaks then it will turn bearish. So its wait and watch game now with think volumes.
Hit like & follow guys ;)
PRA Group: Bullish Shark at a Weekly Support Congestion ZonePRA Group is currently trading above a Support/Resistance Congestion Zone visible on the Weekly Timeframe, and at this zone it has formed a decently sized Bullish Shark pattern with a Bullish PPO Arrow as confirmation, and this all happens to align with the all-time 0.786 retrace. If this plays out, I think it could come back up to make around a 0.886 retrace, which would put it at around $60.
For further context, PRA Group is a Debt Buyer/ Collector, which is something that furthers my interests in the stock.
Bank of America is Shaping Up to Be Just Like PacWestWhen comparing the price action between BAC and PACW, it can be seen that both stocks exhibit the same price action, which is a Rising and Broadening Structure leading into the PCZ of a Bearish Alt-Bat, which all eventually came to a halt upon getting Bearish PPO Confirmation. This led to a breaking of the 21-Month SMA before ultimately flushing down to all-time lows after months of treating the 21-Month SMA levels as resistance.
The same price action can be seen on Bank of America; it is just 1 step behind PACW at this point in time, which is the flipping of the 21-SMA into resistance. The next step would be for it to crash below the 2009 lows.
Old National Bancorp: 3 Falling Peaks within a Broadening WedgeOld National Bancorp has developed a 3 Falling Peaks pattern after confirming a Partial Rise of the Ascending Broadening Wedge it's been trading within. It has also confirmed MACD Hidden Bearish Divergence.
Based on the price action we've recieved the expected bearish target would be between $5.73 and $1.91
REM: Partial Rise within an Ascending Broadening WedgeAs the Fed Funds Rate rises and the rise in Consumer Credit Balances come to a halt, I think it will lead to Deflationary Pressure. This pressure would likely send Short Term Bond Yields lower starting with the ultra short ones like the 1 year and below, when this happens I think we could then see this be reflected within the Mortgage Back Securities (MBS) and if that's the case, this ETF will likely fall because it mostly holds a lot of very Short Term MBSs with maturities ranging between 0 and 5 Years, and as the rate of the MBSs fall so will the Demand for them which would likely lead to lower prices.
Due to what I explained above I think that this Harmonic ABCD BAMM break down will likely happen and send REM down to the 1.13 Fibonacci Extension.