Get started

Realestate

The Housing Market is About to Pop. How Does This Affect Crypto?The US Census Bureau recently published population numbers for cities across the US, and the numbers don't look too good: most large urban centers in the country have taken significant population losses in 2020-2021. Politicians and media pundits typically blame COVID and supply chain woes, though these trends were already happening even before the pandemic - the lockdown only accelerated what was already there. Los Angeles lost around 1% of its total population - which is already significant - but San Francisco and New York lost a staggering 6.7% and 6.9%, respectively. Most US urban centers have been struggling with a housing shortage crisis in the last few decades as housing costs, rents, and costs of living have been outpacing both inflation and wage growth exponentially since the financial crisis "recovery" in 2008. (This was around the time Bitcoin was invented, coincidentally.) In addition to rising crime, homelessness, and loss of quality of life, the well-paying jobs are also leaving the state citing high taxes and unfavorable business policies - giving people less reason to be there as well. The housing market is no different than other markets in that it operates on supply and demand . Housing advocates typically propose building more housing units (increase the supply) to bring costs down, but most cities have opted for the other "solution" - which is to bring costs down by decreasing the desirability of the city itself. (It's an unfortunate series of events, but it is what it is.) Nominal vs real pricing charts of US housing shows that listed prices are vastly inflated compared to its "real" value, which is contributing both to the bubble and the loss of quality in housing construction itself. San Francisco's Case-Shiller Index was chosen since it's objectively the most housing-inflated area right now, objectively speaking. The housing bubble is most likely to pop there, then cascade downwards onto other markets as people's faith in its growth starts to stagger. The reasons above (combined with the Fed's interest rate hikes this year) are why even Wall Street and big companies have taken an interest in crypto, NFTs, and metaverse assets lately, since they see it as a hedge against a weakened dollar and a recession (potentially a depression) looming in the horizon. At this point it's not a matter of "if", but "when". For crypto/metaverse investors, the thing to keep an eye on is the level of trust that the general public has in the banking system right now. When the housing bubble pops, it could potentially lead to a liquidity event of a magnitude never before seen, since technically there would be a lot cash sitting in people's hands, looking for places to invest. - The pessimistic outcome for crypto investors is the "money running scared" scenario - where panicked money runs back to the banks and other "conservative" investments assets (bonds, cash) that are seen to have less volatility overall. This may lead people to cash out and leave the crypto ecosystem altogether, causing a downturn in the asset class overall. Keep in mind, though, that housing, cash, and bonds have *traditionally* been seen as "reliable" investment choices, but in recent years those are the exact assets that have been inflating - which has lead many experts to question if they are functioning in the way it was originally intended overall. If that perception becomes shattered, a lot could change overnight. - The optimistic outcome for crypto investors is if the money that was intended for buying housing or other related assets becomes "free", potentially going into alternative assets, which includes crypto. Since a major housing bubble at this scale hasn't happened here there's not much data to show one way or another but we do know that the Evergrande crisis in China has had basically no (arguably inverse) effects on the crypto market as a whole. Panicked money may flow into crypto in ways never before if it's seen as a safe-haven against the turbulence of the housing market and the USD as a whole. Realistically, there will probably be a little bit of both going on, but being that the size of the US housing market is much bigger than the size of the crypto market cap, crypto needs much less of a % of money flowing inwards in order for it to grow. The housing market, on the other hand, has nowhere to go but down. Time will tell, but it would be advisable for people to be prudent about where to put their money this year, because a lot could happen very quickly as the United States faces its biggest financial crisis in decades in the near future.
FRED:SFXRSALong
by RyanTanaka
Short Real EstateMonthly chart doesn't look that great IMO, ripe for at least aa 20% correction. ------Technicals------------ Monthly price is extended WAY above MAs, and rejected to top trendline that runs back to 2008. Lumber Prices have gone down a LOT - check LBS1! ------Macro----------- Everyone that wants to buy a home - has bought one. We are about to enter a deflationary era where high prices start to be rejected by the consumer. This fall, foreclosures and evictions may resume. Just as the housing market has absorbed all the buyers at high prices, a flood of supply will enter the market and crush prices. Demographics are NOT in favor of the market in general - Japan has been suffering this issue for 30 years. Yields are falling because demand is falling - all of the buyers have already entered the market and bought....all that is left are sellers. ------Methods----------- Best way to play a Real Estate crash is to short the market. Buy a inverse leveraged ETF like AMEX:DRV (-3x housing market) and buy. It's coming sooner or later - housing prices are cyclic and we haven't "reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.”
AMEX:REZShort
by Baero-Trading
1
Real Estate Is Rolling OverToday we are taking a look at the Case Shiller Home Index on a year-over-year chart as well as a price chart and using basic, long-term technicals to identify issues and opportunities. I believe we are heading into a recession over the next few years but we will have to see what crazy government program is created to fight that recession that maybe boosts housing back up. Don't forget in 2009 they were printing a ton of money and it didn't save the housing market. I believe home prices on a national level will fall between 25-30% by July 2025 and July 2026. This will depend on if we get UBI, a war, or major hikes in interest rates to fight inflation. Although, I don't believe the FED can hike rates too high because we can't afford the interest on the debt then due to the short-term rollovers. Overall, I am bullish on cash flow real estate in growing areas with growing incomes that have freedom in mind. These areas are experiencing growth at a high rate but some of them are getting overheated. On a national level, I expect this all to play out over 3.5-5 years. Make sure you comment below. Argue your points with others, like, follow, and watch an ad if one pops up to support free information. It only costs you a few seconds.
ECONOMICS:USCSHPIYYLong
by DefyingFinance
The Strange Parallels Between NFTs/Metaverse and Real-EstateThere's a strange similarity in the way people trade and talk about NFT/metaverse assets and real-estate assets -- they're both measured in terms of "projected wealth", not cash. Anyone who has tried to sell a house before knows that finding a buyer isn't an instantaneous transaction -- it takes some time and planning to find someone willing to pay for it. Some people are arguing that despite cryptocurrency markets being down right now, the NFT market has largely remained untouched. Is this a bullish signal? Or is it just because we're in a holding pattern of people not wanting to lower their appraisals? Some similarities and differences between digital and analog assets (i.e. real-estate): Similarities: - Both markets are "hot" right now, but a cool-down is likely to come soon (NFTs likely to follow the dip in the general crypto markets, real-estate likely to get hurt by interest rate hikes) - The value of both NFTs and real-estate are largely "unrealized" until the actual sale - Relies on appraisals and network effects (e.g. neighborhoods, communities) to determine its value - Both assets are seen as a tool for building wealth/status Differences: - Real-estate has a better supply/demand dynamic (demand currently outpaces supply) but is largely concentrated in urban centers, which has been struggling to maintain its standards of quality and status in recent years (NFTs, on the other hand is an emerging status symbol with an uncertain trajectory) - Real-estate has limited supply but is bound by physical locations, NFTs have an unlimited (but not infinite) supply but is ubiquitous So What? There is a competition going on right now between "analog" and "digital" assets, in the fight over which is deemed more "status worthy". Whether or not an NFT is seen as "cool" or an abomination largely depends on which circles you happen to be running with. Both markets are likely to shift very rapidly in 2022 so it's important to keep tabs on which way things are moving. (Real-estate is currently losing its ground as a status symbol, whereas NFTs are gaining.) Crypto people sometimes joke that they're "NFT rich, cash poor", but there are plenty of homeowners out there right now who are drowning in mortgage and property tax payments that are in the same boat. A lot of the anti-crypto sentiments you see in public discourse seems to be originating from those demographics, currently. (It takes one to know one, after all.)
Long
by RyanTanaka
Virtual vs Real Estate (Inflation, Real-Estate, and Government)Gavin Newsom has been bragging about CA's $31B surplus this year but we know that the state has been struggling for a while now. A locked-down economy and people/jobs leaving the state will kind of do that. CA owes the Feds $21B in unemployment debt, btw. www.sacbee.com Looking at the budget closer, you'll see that they gave educational institutions a modest increase (not enough to off set the damage COVID regulations they made them follow, of course) while most essential services are actually getting massive cuts. www.ebudget.ca.gov That 66% cut in environmental protections is pretty much a slap to the face to environmentalists everywhere. (Maybe that had something to do with why Newsom "disappeared" during the climate summit last year.😂) But Big Pharma and corporate tax cuts are doing great, at least. If budgets could give the middle finger to taxpayers, this is probably as big as a flip as you could get. We had the chance to get rid of Newsom last year so guess he felt emboldened enough to double-down on the abuse. But it is what it is, I suppose. Kind of too late, now. Note that despite Newsom's claims of economic recovery, we see a huge increase in labor dev funds, for reasons that should be pretty obvious by now. They know people are leaving and employers aren't hiring so something needs to be done but they can't be honest about it. Big picture, is this really about COVID, California's labor market, or is it the beginning of the 4th Industrial Revolution, as Andrew Yang and the #YangGang forewarned? "Supply chain issues" may be masking the reality that a lot of those jobs aren't simply coming back, at all. And it seems fitting that the day this comes out, we see Jerome Powell starting to look panicked about #inflation after a year of denying that it ever existed. Deer caught in the headlights, really. It's obvious that they really have no idea what they're doing at this point. Either way, we have government loaning each other money with the Feds just printing more money to keep the states afloat on their unsustainable path. It's a house of cards ready to come crumbling down, and it's going to trickle down all the way to state and local budgets, too. Lots of people probably thought I was crazy to double-down on #crypto during these times but the more I read about this stuff I feel better about the path I took. I often feel like an outsider to traditional financial institutions but maybe that's not a bad thing, after all. There's going to be a lot of people who claim that the sky is falling but that happens at every downturn so take it with a grain of salt. But it's not all bad -- some sectors will do well so the best thing people can do is to stay focused on areas of growth. 📈 What are those areas? Crypto, #NFTs, software in general, and service sector industries that aren't beholden to supply chain issues and can adapt to new economic landscapes very quickly. The #metaverse will adjust to inflation much better than real-estate, for sure. We're due for a market correction in the USD at any given moment, anyway. Long-term, it'll be a good thing, though, since all the FOMO in Wall Street and the government has created a monster that's out of control. A crash will fix a lot of that by removing the $$. Either way, good luck, folks. Been saying a while that the next few years is going to be a roller-coaster so I hope people are prepared for anything to happen. The smarter ones have seen the writing on the wall and are planning accordingly already. 🧐
Long
by RyanTanaka
Upside Potential Outweighs DownsideSo, I nailed my last EXPI idea. Holy smokes, it went right to $27-28 and I loaded up. Now, which way does EXPI go? RE stocks will likely suck for a while longer but can EXPI really drop into the teens? That'd be borderline absurd. I think a $5B market cap is a fine resting place for EXPI for a while. I don't expect the price to drop much further...its down nearly 70% from its high. I think the price will linger around from the mid $20s to mid $30s until Spring. Then, I expect it to come back to life a little. I don't see EXPI hitting new highs in 2022 but my expectation is a rebound to at least the $40s.
NASDAQ:EXPI
by WildBill2535