Realestate
Classic Cup & Handle patternWe are seeing a cup & head pattern on this real estate ETF.
How to enter a position:
First entry: 20% of full amount, when it breaks the high of the handle of the cup.
Second entry: 80% is the cross above the high of the cup, confirming the bullish pattern.
Risk-reward setup:
Profit-exit: Full target is $53 approximately. 10sma has been working well with a trailing stop for a partial sell.
Loss-exit: the target is denied, if we close below the november 1st low; at which point I would exit 100%.
Good luck, and have a great weekend everyone!
RE - Real Estate Double Top Before FOMCIdea for Real Estate:
- Real Estate testing a double top after some exhaustion Sept-Oct.
- MBB's rolling over, rejected at -1 Std Dev:
- Because every other market component is already at +2/-2 Std Dev, and Real Estate is relatively less volatile than say S&P 500, I think the +1/-1 Std Dev is a good signal.
- We will have more confirmation next week depending on Fed's decision to taper MBS purchases. I think the Fed will stick to their signaled schedule in hopes of avoiding any sort of a "tantrum".
- Historically, RE and MBS's lead declines in equities.
- We have seen both commodity prices, Building Permits and pending Home Sales come down, so a decline is natural:
- Overseas property market declining is likely to have headwinds as well:
GLHF
- DPT
Zillow Ponzied - Real Estate Bubble - Treasury Rates RisingDebt gets uncontrollable for the ones who've borrowed too much. #kingdollar will come in to play. Sell Sell Sell!
Everything rally PONZIED. The unintended consequences of ponzi pogging for decades. Time for the taxes.
Hyperinflated assets to be annihilated. Small cap QUALITY VALUE will outperform on EARNINGS GROWTH!!!!
Large cap #stonks BONDS WILL CRASH first, then the equities. ZERO CORPORATE TAX days are over. Along with a BRAND NEW
GLOBAL MINIMUM TAX!! wow. Once in decades opportunity for small caps. EXCELLENT!!!
#cannabisreform #thegem Jobs & Justice
Akerna $KERN has the COMPLIANCE DATA software.
LABS GROUP has a very big potential. NFT real estate.LABS Group is the first end to end Real Estate focused investment ecosystems with a real estate focused securities exchange.
Market Cap $26,433,280
A list of upcoming events.
November
WIN Development with an Introduction into Chainlinks VRF system.
UI WIN Completed
WIN Backend / Frontend Completed
Bridge Feature Integration
Crowdfunding Platform Release with two live crowdfunding projects
December
Testing WIN with BETA Users
WIN Platform Release
NFT Marketplace Platform Development
Third live crowdfunding project
NFT Marketplace Platform Completed
Testing Transactions on Polygon Mainnet
NFT Marketplace Platform Release
About LABS Group
LABS Group is a digital investment platform that provides access to fractionalized property ownership and enables the continuous trading of real estate assets-backed tokenized shares on a regulated security exchange. LABS Group’s platform uses blockchain technology and smart contracts to ensure complete transparency over a borderless ecosystem where property developers and investors can interact seamlessly and with unprecedented efficiency.
Real estate and blockchain professionals have brought together their expertise to devise an ecosystem of services that make property investment more accessible, more secure, and more liquid.
PROPY - buy while you still can !!I bought into PROPY around 98 cents but was to busy to post about it.
Now that it doubled in around 10 days it represents still a great opportunity !
The MarketCap is 124 million usd - put that in relation with a 250 T plus Real Estate Market !!
From a technical analysis PROPY looks great on the USD pair. A big inverse H&S pattern has formed and we are right under the neckline !
Volume has picked up ans shows huge green buy bars. Price by volume has broken out today !!
PROPY is the first real estate token of its kind and well ahead in the game.
That is why the W6rld Ec6nomic F6rum mentiones it on its website: "Propy is a global real estate marketplace with a decentralized title registry aiming to solve international real estate transaction problems by creating a novel unified property store and asset transfer platform for the global real estate industry. Propy allows buyers, sellers, brokers and escrow agents, title agents and notaries to come together by using a suite of smart contracts on blockchain to facilitate transactions."
Do not miss out this opportunity.
Z - Falling Wedge for the Win?!WEEKLY CHART
This is a classic falling wedge pattern! (I'm a little late to the party.)
- Strong volume
- Break above $107.10 (break above 50MA) should confirm a continuation of the bullish trend.
- 50MA could create some resistance around $101-$103.
I like Z $120 Call 1/21/22. I'm already in. (avg. $2.40)
Hang Send Mainland Properties index Big rally, BUT
Potentially a Spinning Top/ Shooting star Still inside Senkou Span a & B
So it looks corrective for the time being on the abck of $ bond coupon payment headline But the filing with exchange is they are still within th egrace period and it is ongoing.
Evergrande Bonds rallied but still trading at 16 on the benchmark 2025 bond.
Evergrande, Inflation, Supply Chains = Good For Crypto? I did a video version of the editor's pick idea (link below) with more details and a more holistic look at what's been going on in real-estate, politics, and crypto.
What happens next is anyone's guess but underlying trends tend to show that the crypto market itself will probably be OK, if not bullish. Some notes from the vid below:
- Inflation is here to stay in the US, China’s inflation is very low right now (below 1% with up and down trends, the US is 5.4% and steadily climbing) and is more likely to recover more smoothly in the long run if they allow Evergrande to default on their loans.
- The United States was caught off guard by inflation warnings because they have outsourced most of their manufacturing overseas over the last few decades -- out of sight, out of mind. (They refused to consider increasing interest rates or lower gov spending until very recently.)
- Crypto is an “inflation friendly” asset because its price is adjustable and is not beholden to supply chain issues.
- China’s ban on Bitcoin and other assets are pretty typical of the politics there, but savvy Chinese investors often invest in foreign assets as a way to dodge taxation and political entities taking control of their assets. This includes real-estate, but also things like cryptocurrencies.
- In September, the media latched onto the Evergrande controversy and dipping crypto prices by attempting to correlate the two. Data shows otherwise, however.
- It will probably take 6-12 months (1 or 2 business cycles) before the effects of Evergrande are seen in the US real-estate markets, but it will most likely be negative for traditional assets. The question is, will this be good or bad for crypto?
Crypto vs GME/AMC vs Evergrande in the Last 3 MonthsA 3 month chart of the returns as a side-by-side comparison. That red line slowly sinking into nothingness is Evergrande, the lines in the middle are GameStop, AMC, and a random ETF I found on the real-estate market here in the US.
How the Evergrande crash will affect the US markets is yet to be seen (it'll probably take at least a business cycle or 2 before the effects of it show up here) but we do know that it will be negative, potentially recession-inducing.
As you can see, as the real-estate market dips, crypto is actually doing better, not worse. People liquidating their assets in China may have lead to the runs that we see today -- and right now where the interest rates of banks are low, crypto is the only asset that makes any sense if you want any sort of reliable return.
If this trend continues, we could see a jump in crypto prices like never seen before. Crypto is also what you call a "inflation friendly" asset because it's not beholden to supply chain issues like other assets are so it's more likely to adapt to economic conditions much faster -- at the very least, it will be affected differently.
But the important thing to pay attention to for the #crypto folks is how this is talked about in public -- if you notice, about a month ago crypto and #blockchain markets have taken a slight hit -- but the media around then started publishing articles how Bitcoin and Ethereum was "tanking" along with the real-estate market, due to Evergrade scares. This is what's called "cherry picking" your data set, since the overall trends show that the two things obviously don't correlate.
Don't get caught up in other people's problems, other people's fears, in other words. Misery loves company, after all. Crypto is in for some good times ahead, I'm pretty sure of it now.
As Inflation Rises, So Do the Opportunities in CryptoInflation is here to stay. Part of the reason why the government was caught off guard was because the US has been offshoring manufacturing for years now and is no longer looped into things like supply chain issues that are happening thousands of miles away. What's likely to happen, and how can crypto benefit from it?
Evergrande vs Bitcoin, Round 2Latest update on the Evergrande fiasco. It's looking like this could be much bigger than even the alarmists have been speculating so far.
tl;dr - the US media is very poor at covering foreign news, especially when it comes to money. Be wary of what you read out there.
China is likely to let Evergrande defaut, which will stand in stark contrast to what we did over here. Expect this issue to get political, especially from the Democratic side since people like Pelosi have made their fortunes in real-estate as well.
This could potentially be a very good thing for #crypto because it will shake people's confidence in traditional assets while also providing more liquidity. If they're going to sell or not purchase a home anymore, where is it going to go? Interest rates are pathetic right now and crypto is the only thing getting people decent returns as we speak.
The Federal Reserve is maybe-sorta-kind-of-thinking about doing the right thing (which is to increase interest rates) but their response is likely going to be too little too late. I think we should probably assume that the correction is going to run its course and adapt accordingly.
More to come with this stuff but it's one of the few things worth paying attention to in finance right now.
UDR - Long set up - weekly chartsUDR, Inc. is a real estate investment trust, which owns, operates, acquires, renovates, develops, redevelops, disposes of, and manages multifamily apartment communities. It engages in the multi-family real estate investment trust business. It operates through the Same-Store Communities and Non-Mature Communities/Other segments. The Same-Store Communities segment pertains to properties that are acquired, developed, and stabilized occupancy. The Non-Mature Communities/Other segment include recently acquired, developed and redeveloped communities and the non-apartment components of mixed use properties.
From the technical scanning standpoint, this chart pops up for 2 very critical reasons.
1. Bollinger Band squeeze on Daily charts and price very close to its 20 Day moving Average and
2. On weekly charts, price sitting right on its 20 week MA. (basis of the Bollinger Band)
More like a Bull flag set up on the weekly charts. Looks bullish with RSI popping upwards too In the bulls control zone
Great move up and then this pullback on weekly charts, just looks a great setup with Good risk to reward.
From the sector correlation perspective, some important considerations are as below:
1. There are nearly 256 stocks in the real estate sector
2. As on the close of today, 201 stocks are above their 5 Day Moving Average, which is a strength score of 76%
3. As on close today, nearly 68% of the total stocks are above their 20 Day Moving Average, which to me is a positive sign of upside trend
4. Today, nearly 81% of the total stocks in this sector had a positive day, higher close than yesterdays close, that is a sign of sector strength
5. Average Price target by analysts at $58.40, still a potential 10% upside from current levels
Good opportunity to DCA or add to long positionEntered outside the mean, and 200 EMA.
Now it is retesting it thanks to high beta and volatility with the nasdaq correcting.
Still Bullish as we are above it and dancing around 200EMA in an upward trend and channel, can we hit 60$ and get a 169% return?
Target is November earnings, you saw how beating estimates sent it soaring.
My outlook is interest rates aren't increasing till next year, so we still good and summer is over too, therefore people will need to settle indoors this winter.
EXPI is primed for growth and is not reliant on large debt, it's clients clients are....
(Disclaimer not financial advice This is pure speculation with a bit of rational research)
Evergrande and the San Francisco Real-Estate Crash (ft. #Crypto)So while we wait for the #Evergrande thing to sort itself out, the city to pay attention to for cracks in the housing market here in the US is #SanFrancisco. They have had the highest housing inflation in the country over the last decade -- which is counteracted by the reality that both jobs and people are leaving the city in droves now due to its unaffordability, high taxes, and lower quality of living.
So the part we should be concerned about is the fact that cash purchases of real-estate (the metric used to estimate foreign investment) has been on the rise for a while now, and COVID has more likely than not accelerated those trends. Of the possible 30-40% of homes bought with cash in SF, we know that at least with foreign properties, more than 70% of them are from China. We don't have the exact numbers yet but I think it's safe to say that it's probably enough to have an impact.
While everyday Americans struggle to make ends meet, why does the market keep on going up, at least on paper? The reality is that US markets are being propped up by foreign speculators right now, rather than anything we did on our end. Foreign investors know that Americans are homeownership obsessed and will basically do anything to keep their home values up, no matter what the cost. (Homelessness, crime, rising rents, etc.) They don't live with the consequences since most aren't even here -- all they really care about is getting a return.
Both the NIMBYs and politicians in the US have sold out the American people to see their home values rise for a few % points -- foreign investors are basically trying to #buythedip of our dysfunction and laughing all the way to the bank, really.
Is the sky going to fall? No. But when you see people freak out over changes in 5-10% even in assets like #crypto, a change like that can actually be panic-inducing in traditional markets. Imagine that your investment that has gone up steadily every year for 50 years, now going down.
If you're a renter or a prospective homebuyer, this may be the moment you've been waiting for, though. Something worth keeping tabs on, either way.
Evergrande and #Crypto - Money is MoneyThe recent dip in the crypto market is most likely a result from the scare that Evergrande -- one of the largest real-estate firms in China, may end up defaulting on their debt. Will China bail them out or let them fail? It's China's version of what happened in 2008 in the US.
Is Evergrande the next Lehman Brothers ??China`s economic model is based on real estate investment to drive growth. 20 Mil apartment buildings per year.
China`s residential property is 20% of GDP every year. Too much!
Real estate activities in China close to 30% of GDP every year. Huge!
Chinese Government is Bashing the private sector, look at GOTU and BABA for example.
Evergrande, second largest property developer in China has more than $300 billion in debt!
Evergrande has $83.5 million interest payment Sept. 23 and a $42.5 million payment on Sept. 29
Failure to to pay in 30 days can put Evergrande in default.
Today Evergrande has a Market Cap of 30.099B! At its peak, Evergrande was traded 13.5X higher!
Evergrande’s potential debt blowup can send shock waves through financial markets!
Today was just the beginning.