NSE:DLF 🏢 On Verge of Multi year breakout ??⁉️NSE:DLF
DLF Ltd., incorporated in the year 1963, is a Large Cap company (having a market cap of Rs 101,735.31 Crore) operating in Real Estate sector.
DLF Ltd. key Products/Revenue Segments include Property Development, Rental Income, Other Operating Revenue and Royalty Income for the year ending 31-Mar-2022.
For the quarter ended 30-06-2022, the company has reported a Consolidated Total Income of Rs 1,516.28 Crore, down 8.22 % from last quarter Total Income of Rs 1,652.13 Crore and up 22.06 % from last year same quarter Total Income of Rs 1,242.27 Crore. Company has reported net profit after tax of Rs 258.15 Crore in latest quarter.
Realestatesector
US Real Estate Slowdown Casts a Long ShadowLast week, U.S. housing starts, a key economic measure of new residential construction, dropped to their lowest level since 2020, with single-family housing starts hitting a 16-month low. Meanwhile, overall housing inventory has climbed to its highest point since 2020, and new housing inventory has reached levels not seen since 2008. Despite a moderating mortgage rate, high prices continue to deter buyers, failing to stimulate housing sales. Combined with the ongoing slowdown in commercial real estate, the sector may face prolonged challenges.
While the Real Estate Select Sector could see short-term gains from declining interest rates, a significant slowdown in the sector may dampen these benefits. A long position in Utilities Select Sector Index futures (XAU) to capitalize on lower rates, paired with a short position in Real Estate Select Sector Index futures (XLR) to hedge the real estate downturn, offers a balanced approach against XLR's short-term gains.
US HOUSING STARTS TUMBLE, INVENTORY SURGES
U.S. housing starts fell to 1.238 million as of July 29, a 6.8% decline from the previous week and well below analyst expectations of 1.340 million. Single-family housing starts dropped by 14.1% to 851,000, marking a sixteen-month low. Although Hurricane Beryl likely contributed to this sharp decline, the real estate sector faces a more significant, underlying challenge.
The U.S. housing market is grappling with a surge in inventory. According to Realtor.com, overall housing inventory stands at 884,000, the highest level since 2020. Similarly, data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows inventories at 1.32 million, also the highest since 2020.
The situation is even more concerning for new housing inventory, which has reached its highest level since 2008. At July's sales pace, it would take 9.3 months to clear the backlog of new homes.
Notably, the slowdown in housing starts has intensified, even as mortgage rates have moderated from their peak in May. Despite a 10% decline in mortgage rates since early May, housing starts have fallen by 8%, indicating that easing rates are not driving a meaningful rebound in housing sales.
In addition to the struggles in the residential real estate market, the commercial real estate market continues to struggle with elevated vacancies and mark-downs. Last Month, Deutsche Bank stated that the commercial real estate market would be further pressured during H2 2024 as the recovery they had anticipated was not materializing.
INTEREST RATE CUT WILL PROVIDE SHORT-TERM BOOST
Despite the challenges facing the real estate sector, upcoming interest rate cuts are expected to provide a boost through further declines in mortgage rates. However, this near-term support may not be enough to offset a potentially prolonged downturn. Rising inventory levels are not being matched by significant price reductions, and with a weakening labor market, homebuyers' purchasing power is likely to remain constrained.
The real estate sector is not the only beneficiary of lower rates. As noted by Mint Finance in a previous analysis, the utilities sector also stands to gain from declining rates.
Therefore, hedging a short position in Real Estate Select Sector Index futures (XAR) with a long position in Utilities Select Sector Index futures (XAU) mitigates downside risk.
The XAU/XAR spread has outperformed an outright short in XAR as well as the SPX/XAR spread during rate cut driven rallies in the XAR this year and remained resilient during the recent rally in XAR.
HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP
The U.S. real estate sector is burdened by a surplus of inventory, as home buying remains sluggish despite moderating mortgage rates. High prices, combined with financial strain in a weakening labor market, are likely to keep sales low for the foreseeable future. Additionally, ongoing challenges in commercial real estate add to the sector's difficulties.
Despite this negative outlook, the real estate sector may still see some benefit from upcoming interest rate cuts. Historically, the spread between Utilities Select Sector Index futures (XAU) and Real Estate Select Sector Index futures (XAR) has shown resilience during such periods, offering an improved reward/risk profile.
CME Select Sector Futures serve as a capital efficient instrument to implement spread trades between different sectors. A position consisting of short 3 x E-mini Real Estate Select Sector Futures (XARU2024) and long 2 x E-mini Utilities Select Sector Futures (XAUU2024) balances notional values on both legs. CME provides a 60% margin offset for this trade, reducing the margin requirements to USD 11,940 as of 19/Aug.
The hypothetical trade setup described below offers a reward/risk ratio of 1.4x
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme.
DISCLAIMER
This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
Long S&P and Short Real Estate on Higher for Longer Rates“The only bad time to buy real estate is later” cites investment wisdom. But, when interest rates soar high, real estate investments can and do hurt.
Last week FOMC reiterated its resolve to fight inflation down to its target 2%. Inflation has been stubborn and sticky. It has shown signs of trend reversal towards resurgence. Chair Powell’s made clear that rate cuts may take longer to arrive than anticipated.
Elevated rates are restrictive for businesses. It leads to shrinking sales and profits. However, recent earnings show heavyweights posting robust growth. While others have shown disappointing earnings. The difference boils down to the industry and sector.
Some sectors fare worse than others. Real Estate is extremely sensitive to rates. Higher rates directly impact mortgages impeding buyers from getting into long-term mortgages.
Unsurprisingly, the Real Estate Select Sector index has been the lowest performing sector since the start of the Fed’s rate hiking campaign. Underperformance has continued well into 2024 and has also been observed during periods of market rallies.
With sustained headwinds facing real estate, underperformance is likely to continue. This provides suave investors a tactical spread opportunity consisting of a long position in the wider S&P 500 index using CME Micro E-Mini S&P 500 futures and a short position in the CME S&P Real Estate Select Sector futures to harness a reward to risk ratio of 1.5x.
FED REAFFIRMS HIGHER FOR LONGER
Fed fund rates will remain at 5.25%-5.5% for longer given the stubborn inflation trend over the last 12- months.
Forget rate cuts. Those hopes are diminishing. The CME FedWatch signals just two rate cuts this year as of 5/May, down from six expected at the start of the year.
Source: CME FedWatch
Chair Powell’s speech hinted that even two rate cuts is overly hopeful stating that the expected inflation may not be enough to cut rates this year.
HIGHER RATES WEIGH ON REAL ESTATE SECTOR
Higher rates adversely impact the Real Estate sector. Elevated rates push up mortgage and financing costs. Large financing costs constrains demand.
Last October, the 30-year mortgage rate climbed to its highest level in 23 years at 7.79%. Following that peak, the mortgage rates eased to as low as 6.6% in December as expectations of rate cuts started to firm up.
Since then, the rates have rebounded. As of 29/April, the 30-Year mortgage rate average (calculated by Freddie Mac) hovers at 7.22%. A measure calculated by the Mortgage Bankers Association showed that as of 1/May, the mortgage rate continues to rise and is now at 7.29%.
Higher rates are forcing housing demand lower. New home sales have declined 5% and existing home sales have fallen by 25% since the rate hiking cycle.
Home prices continued to rise despite a slowdown in sales. House price index is almost 10% higher since 2022 as inventory of houses hovers near an all-time-low.
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE FACES IDIOSYNCRATIC RISKS
Commercial Real Estate (“CRE”) has been hit with a double whammy from dwindling office space demand and prohibitive cost of financing.
Office space vacancy rate reached a new record high of 19.8% in Q1 2024 as per Moody’s data reported on Bloomberg . Recovery in office space demand remains unlikely in the near term pressing CRE sector down.
HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP
The real estate sector has been hammered. The S&P Real Estate Select Sector Index is 20% lower since the rate hiking cycle began. The benchmark S&P 500 declined at first but has since recovered and now stands 13% higher.
For investors to build a directional short is not prudent as the sector has suffered brutal markdowns. This paper argues in favor of a spread between S&P 500 and the Real Estate Select Sector Index using CME futures.
S&P 500/XLRE spread has delivered a stunning 45% outperformance since 2022.
Investors can utilize CME Micro E-Mini S&P 500 futures which provides exposure to USD 5 x S&P 500 Index. This is one-tenth the size of standard E-mini futures enabling granular risk management.
The CME Micro E-mini S&P 500 futures first launched exactly five years ago on 6/May/2019. The demand for these micro contracts has spiked. In April 2024 , these contracts witnessed an Average Daily Volume of more than one million contracts which represents 15.7% YoY growth and 22.7% MoM growth.
Micro futures allow for smaller position sizes. It broadens market access and allows for granular and effective hedging by matching notional values closely in spreads.
This hypothetical trade consists of a long position in 2 lots of Micro E-mini S&P 500 June futures (MESM2024) with a notional size of USD 51,615 (= 2 (number of contracts) x USD 5 (contract size) x 5161 (index value) ) and a short position in 1 E-mini Real Estate Select Sector futures (XARM4) with a notional size of USD 45,500 (= 1 (number of contracts) x USD 250 (contract size) x 182 (index value) ).
Consider the two scenarios which can lead to a shift in the spread ratio:
1) S&P 500 rises from 5161.5 to 5408.6 while Real Estate Select Sector index remains unchanged at 181.8. The ratio becomes 5408.6/181.8 = 29.75. The overall profit, which comes entirely from the S&P 500 position would be (5408.6 – 5161.5) x 5 x 2 = USD 2,471.
2) S&P 500 remains unchanged at 5161.5 while Real Estate Select Sector index falls from 181.8 to 173.5. The ratio becomes 5161.5/173.5 = 29.75. The overall profit, which comes entirely from the Real Estate Select Sector index would be (181.8 – 173.5) x 250 = USD 2,075.
• Entry: 28.5
• Target: 29.75
• Stop Loss: 27.5
• Profit at Target: USD 2,471
• Loss at Stop: USD 1,620
• Reward to Risk: 1.53x
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
DISCLAIMER
This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
Macro Monday 37 Continued - The RICS & Savills Plc Chart Comparison ~ The RICS & Savills Plc
(extension to this mornings Macro Monday 37)
After sharing todays Macro Monday I couldn’t help be notice some similarities in between these charts.
RICS
The Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) House Price Balance is a monthly survey that indicates whether more or less surveyors expect housing prices to rise or fall in the U.K. housing market. For more on the RICS see the below Macro Monday Post shared earlier today.
Savills plc
Savills plc primarily operates as a global real estate advisory firm, offering a wide range of services including property sales, leasing, valuation, advisory, and investment management. While it does include auction services as part of its portfolio, auctions may not be the primary focus of its business compared to specialized auction houses.
Before we review the chart its important to recognize that Savills operates globally and provides real estate services in various countries and regions around the world, including the United Kingdom. While the company may generate a significant portion of its revenue from the UK market, the exact percentage of house sales in the UK versus other regions would vary depending on factors such as market conditions, business strategies, and client demand.
The below slide from their July 2023 report gives a nice overview of their types of business transactions and geographical spread
All of the above is important because if we are going to compare these charts we need to be aware that there are a lot of nuances to the Savills price and whilst it is a good indicator of the UK Property market and the performance of the UK segment of the company itself, its business and operations are far more broadly spread and have a corporate & services edge. One could argue that the defensive aspects of the business are consumer needs based (property management), thus not necessarily discretionary or market price driven. The riskier end of business actually seems to be in residential sales and holds a much smaller weighting, likely meaning it impacts the stock price a lot less (which the chart later appears to confirm).
This is very different to the likes of the data from the RICS survey which is a direct representation of the UK housing market prices in isolation. Also, Savills plc is a stock thus investor sentiment and many other variables like business performance and business structural changes impact the price on the chart.
RICS vs Savills plc
First lets look at the Savills plc chart in isolation. We can see that there is a long term diagonal parallel channel (blue) and the recently price fell out of this channel suggesting that this could be the beginning of a long term trend change.
We appear to be moving through a parallel horizonal channel at present and typically, when you break out of such a box or channel there is an increased probability to continue in the direction of the break up or down. This could also be considered a Darvas Box, it that were the case, Darvas box price movements typically move in the same direction from entry which in this case would be down.
In support of this chart not breaking down we are above the 200 day SMA at present (red line) and we have strong historic price support and volume support (red box) under price at present. This area would be hard to break through but if it was it would be confirmation of a trend change.
RICS vs Savills plc Chart
You can clearly see that the RICS and Savills plc on the chart have moved in unison in the past.
Lower highs on the RICS (red arrows) were a great indicators in 2007 and 2010 of a subsequent declines in the Savills plc stock (and the UK housing market).
However in 2013 a deviation appears, where by lower lows on the RICS did not impact Savills plc like it previously had in the past. From 2013 a large divergence into a megaphone pattern emerges as the RICS makes a series of lower lows and Savills makes a series of higher lows and higher highs.
Why this is happening is open to interpretation but one would imagine that Savills plc have found ways to diversify their business and based on the RICS downward volatile trend, the performance of Savills plc is very impressive. The UK housing market has clearly been volatile in recent years however the company has weathered this volatility and is deviating away from it in an upward trajectory. The companies focus on real estate services means money during market swings and their management fee business can act as a float throughout
When I first started this comparison I presumed the RICS and Savills plc combined could really help inform us of what is happening in the UK Property, however having dug a little deeper, it is clear to me that the business model and the price of Savills is not directly correlated to the UK property market prices, rather it is a diversified business model which leans on property management transactions, Corporate Real Estate (CRE), property services and has a wider geographic reach. Savills plc may be better suited as a general chart to review for the general global CRE market, property services and management market.
RICS on the other hand can continue to help us interpret housing market prices in the UK in a more direct way. I have to admire the progression of the Savills Company away from the market volatility on the RICS and towards sustainable growth, purely from a chart observation standpoint.
Unfortunately I cannot complete a comparison of large residential auctioneers in then UK like Alsop's, Auction House UK and SDL Auctions as they are not public.
I will keep a look out for any charts that could use to help guide us in the UK property market.
PUKA
The RICS UK House Price Balance - Trending Up For Now The RICS UK House Price Balance
(Released this Thursday 14th Mar 2024 for Feb month)
The Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) House Price Balance is a monthly survey that indicates whether more or less surveyors expect housing prices to rise or fall in the U.K. housing market. A positive net balance suggests house price increases, while a negative net balance implies price decreases.
The RICS provides valuable insight into the UK housing markets trend and helps gauge the direction of house price movements whilst also offering insight into consumer spending.
The Chart
The RICS House Price Balance is calculated as the proportion of surveyors reporting a rise in housing prices minus the proportion reporting a fall in prices.
It reflects the expected monthly change in national house prices.
Positive vs. Negative Net Balance:
A positive net balance indicates that more surveyors expect price increases, signaling a robust housing market. A negative net balance implies that more surveyors anticipate housing price decreases, indicating a fragile housing market.
Green Area 🟢 = More Surveyors Reporting an Increase in House Prices
Red Area 🔴 = More Surveyors Reporting an decrease House Prices
Grey Areas ⚫️= Recessions
▫️ The RICS fell sharply from April 2022 down to the 0% level in Oct 2022. This was a leading indication of a downward trend UK House market prices (falling from 78% in Apr 2022 to 0% in Oct 2022).
▫️ The RICS fell into the red zone from Oct 2022 forward indicating that houses prices from this date were in net decline (per surveyors responses).
▫️ Almost 12 months later the RICS reached a low of -66% in Sept 2023. Since this date we have started to trend upwards sharply recovering from -66% to -18.4% today. However we remain in net negative territory indicating house prices are still in declining but not as much as before, a change of trend may forming indicating a move to house price appreciation (not confirmed until we move above the 0% level into + territory).
▫️ The Historic Recession Line on the chart illustrates the -63% level which crossed by the RICS at the onset of the 1990 and 2007 recessions (grey areas on chart). We recently penetrated this level moving to -66% in Sept 2023 which historically does not bode well.
This weeks RICS release will be very revealing and could tell us if we have a continuation of the upward trend for UK House prices or if we we remain firmly in negative territory.
Lets see what Thursday brings, a fascinating little metric to help us keep an eye on the property market in the UK and the to get an idea of UK consumer behavior.
PUKA
Hubtown - The Busiest Hub in the Town :)Revered as one of the most reliable real estate developers in India, Hubtown was conceived in 1985 with the intent of dramatically transforming the real estate.
As part of the Interim budget there is strong focus on Railways, Infra, Green Energy and Real Estate.
On the Technical Front - Hubtown has formed a big Cup and Handle BO on Monthly level. There is an immediate resistance at 150
Above 150 WCB - Hubtown will fly towards 255
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ANANTRAJ (NSE) -Is it good time to invest in Anant Raj?
Multi year breakout
ARL, the flagship company of Anant Raj Group, was incorporated in 1985 and started
manufacturing of ceramic tiles later in 1985 and subsequently got listed in 1989. Later, the
company also operated as a contractor for the Delhi Development Authority. In 2003, the
company entered into Real Estate Development as 'Anant Raj Limited'. The company
gradually acquired land parcels and currently has approximately 1050 acres in the Delhi, NCR
and Haryana. The group is promoted by Mr. Ashok Sarin and family.
Key Assets
The commercial assets include three IT Parks at Rai, Manesar and Panchkula, one shopping mall in Karol Bagh, Commercial Building at Sector 44 Gurugram and two hotels that provide steady rental income. Co. has a total developed area of 5.5 msf commercial space of which ~30% space is already leased out and generating income.
Revenue (FY20)
Real Estate Sales: 89%
Rental and Services: 11%
🚩 Rating withdrawn due issuer not cooperating
Disc: No invested ,
Disclaimer Information shared, and all content we produce is intended for education and entertainment purposes. Any advice is general advice only and has not taken into account your personal financial circumstances, needs or objectives. No, buy or sell recommendation. Before acting on general advice, please speak to a financial professional.
DRV a triple leveraged Real Estate ETF LONGDRV as a ETF of real estate stocks is likely somewhat responsive to the financial environment.
My idea is that the recent rate hike of 0.25% will adversely effect home sales and liquidity
especially given that the Fed has indicated that there will be on easing this year but perhaps
some pauses. They take August off for the conference and party. The 2H chart shows
price moving down from a high pivot in May. The zero-lag EMAs ( 35/70/280) are
golden crossing. The MACD confirms that upward divergence.On the dual time frame
RSI, the low TF green line has jumped up and looks solid. I will take a long swing trade
here zooming into the 15-30 minute TF for an entry. I will also look at the options chain
seeking an option expiring in 203 months reflecting a target of 48 between the POC line
of the volume profile and the mean VWAP thick black line. I like to catch revesals early to
profit from the bulk of the move. This is another opportunity.
Bullish Breakout in Phoenix MillsThe stock has given a bullish breakout. Reality sector looks strong so further upside in Phoenix Mills is expected.
Entry can be made at current market price
Stop loss- below 1434
Target- Near 1550
Let me know in the comments section if you want me to analyse any other financial instrument.
WARNING:-
ALWAYS FOLLOW RISK MANAGEMENT AND POSITION SIZING WHILE TAKING ANY TRADE.
Equities Set To Outperform Rickety Real EstateInvestment wisdom states that “the only bad time to buy real estate is later.” Every rule though, has its exceptions. Current US real estate is clearly in exception territory given recessionary fears, high mortgage rates, and dim fundamentals.
Real estate sector is the largest store of wealth. It is also the source of significant job creation. Crisis in this sector has massive adverse consequences. Hence, policy makers typically leave no stone unturned in defending the sector. Despite the headwinds, new data released last week show rising mortgage applications on softening rates and real estate prices. This collectively makes an outright short position perilous.
Instead, this case study argues that a measured approach would be a spread with a long position in S&P 500 Index combined with a short position in S&P Real Estate Select Sector index.
An entry at 20.611 with a target at 22.119 supported by a stop loss at 19.749 will deliver a compelling 1.75 reward to risk ratio with ample upside and limited downside.
INTEREST RATES INVERSELY AFFECT ASSET VALUES
The value of a financial asset is the cumulative discounted value of all future cash flows. Higher the discounting rate, lower the value. Persistent and sticky inflation is compelling the Federal Reserve to keep rates higher for longer.
High mortgage rates are forcing out first time buyers while squeezing leveraged asset owners. Future rents discounted to present value is sharply lower relative to a period when federal funds rate was near zero.
With the US Federal Reserve having hiked interest rates by 4.5% in 2022, mortgage rates have doubled in the same period, touching a 20-year high of 6.2%. This has made real estate investments less attractive. With no rate reversals in sight, mortgage rates are likely to stay elevated despite recent softening. Mortgage rates are down a full percentage point from recent peak but still double what they were a year ago.
Absent a sector specific relief, real estate stocks will underperform relative to the broader S&P 500 index. Since 2017, this ratio of the S&P 500 index to the Real Estate Select Sector has risen by a stunning 54% over the last 6 years.
WEAKENING US HOUSING MARKET
After peaking in July 2020, new home sales in the US have trended 37% lower and down to pre-pandemic levels. Existing home sales exhibit similar trend, which have fallen for eleven (11) straight months, point to a frail US housing market.
New data released last week point to rise in mortgage demand as rates soften and real estate prices ease.
DISTRESSED DEBT IN REAL ESTATE & RISING REDEMPTIONS FROM PROPERTY FUNDS
Global property market faces $175 billion of distressed debt. As rates rise, rising financing costs will force leveraged owners to foreclose at fire sale prices.
Abrupt stop to years of easy money supply has sent shock waves to the sector. Compounded by a pandemic that has changed the way people work and live, commercial real estate owners are in a precarious place. This predicament is showing up in property funds facing rising redemptions.
US-based investment manager - KKR - has imposed limits on redemption from its $1.5 billion KKR Real Estate Select Trust fund (KREST). KKR's cap on redemption echoes a move by Blackstone which announced in December that it would limit investor withdrawals from its $69 billion private real estate fund (BREIT). Starwood Capital also placed caps on redemptions late last year.
Investors are hankering for redemption as fears of price correction stemming from high mortgage costs, persistent inflation and an uncertain economy amplified by recessionary gloom.
GLOOMY REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK
The sector is pessimistic about current and future home sales as evident from NAHB’s Housing Market Index. Over the past six months, new building permits have collapsed drastically as participants see lower demand for new homes.
Vindicating these fears are a sharp drop in new building permits which are down 30%. Home order cancellations are also on the rise sharply.
With all the impact combined, a rise in unsold inventory hit the markets, with marginal & first time home-buyers priced out of the market due to expensive mortgage rates.
The US Federal Reserve is determined to tame inflation down to 2% even at the expense of hurting labor market. Should that occur, a soft labor market reduces appetite for expensive mortgage payments. That would set a real estate contagion in motion, pushing property prices even lower.
TECHNICALS POINT TO BOUYANT S&P 500 AND SHAKY REAL ESTATE SELECT SECTOR
Since bottoming in November 2022, the S&P 500 Index has rallied 11% as it faces resistance at its long term (200-day) moving average. The S&P 500 Index is trading below its point of control.
In contrast, the S&P 500 Real Estate Select Sector index points being overbought based on RSI and is yet to reach its long-term moving average. The index is trading above its point of control making it wobbly and prone to downward correction.
TRADE SETUP
Spread trade requires that the notional value of a long leg is equivalent to the short leg of the trade.
Therefore, five (5) lots of long position in CME E-Mini Micro S&P 500 Futures expiring in March 2023 requires two (2) lots of short position in CME E-Mini Real Estate Select Sector Futures in March 2023. CME offers margin credits for spread trades. Clearing brokers might charge differently from the Exchange imposed margins.
CME E-Mini Micro S&P 500 Futures (5 lots): 5 x USD 5 x S&P 500 Index = 5 x 5 x 4015.25 = ~$100,381
CME E-Mini Real Estate Select Sector Futures (2 lots): 2 x USD 250 x S&P 500 Real Estate Select Sector Index = 2 x 250 x 194.65 = ~$97,325
Entry: 20.611
Target: 22.119
Stop Loss: 19.749
Reward/Risk Ratio: 1.75
Profit at Target: ~$7,350
Loss at Stop Loss: ~$4,200
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
DISCLAIMER
Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
This material has been published for general education and circulation only. It does not offer or solicit to buy or sell and does not address specific investment or risk management objectives, financial situation, or needs of any person.
Advice should be sought from a financial advisor regarding the suitability of any investment or risk management product before investing or adopting any investment or hedging strategies. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
All examples used in this workshop are hypothetical and are used for explanation purposes only. Contents in this material is not investment advice and/or may or may not be the results of actual market experience.
Mint Finance does not endorse or shall not be liable for the content of information provided by third parties. Use of and/or reliance on such information is entirely at the reader’s own risk.
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LANDSHARE HAS THE STRONGEST AND THE BEST POTENTIAL.This is my technical analysis for this great project called LANDSHARE where a real asset are tokenized specifically real estate.
The project offers an investment into the real estate " TOKENIZED ASSET " for only 50$ .
This project has a great potential to reach 600$ based on the technical analysis and on the other hand the fundamental analysis say it has the potential to reach 1000$ .
Also the crypto space may get involved in the real estate businesses where LANDSHARE will be the face of it.
The team behind LANDSHARE project are doing amazing things to improve the project and developing it in the right way.
Not financial advice.
Security National Financial SNFCALadies and Gentlemen, if you're looking for an investment with a little bit of everything, look no further than Security National Financial Corporation! This holding company operates a diverse portfolio of businesses, including funeral services, mortgage lending, and insurance. With a strong market position and experienced management team, this company has got the goods to keep on growing. And the best part? They've got the financials to back it up - consistently posting strong revenue growth and a rock-solid balance sheet. Now, of course, no investment is without risk. Real estate market fluctuations and regulatory changes are always a concern. But, overall, Security National Financial Corporation is a well-rounded investment opportunity with a lot of potential.
XLRE: Where we've come fromHere's a chart I put together that illustrates what the big players are experiencing with Real Estate.
Larger firms trade the sector and if you were to be a 'buyer' since COVID, you would join a pool of others that the average participant is now losing money.
The trend is clear and it very well will likely keep going south while the Fed continues to raise rates.
DLFHello and welcome to this analysis
DLF has initiated a Bullish 5-O Harmonic Pattern in this pullback.
It could do in the short term 370-380 and 475 in the medium term as long as it does not break below 340
Bullish Harmonic 5-O patterns are spotted in pullbacks which make higher lows and thereby continuation of prevailing uptrend.
Happy Investing
Real Estate ETF ShortVanguard Real Estate ETF Head and Shoulders target hit on the DTF .
I can see a similarities on the WTF and MTF that could play out and It could happen anytime up until 2024-2025.
We are also in a ABC Corrective Wave and housing prices are becoming unaffordable for most of the population due to rising INFLATION.
Real Estate Assets Could Fall 30% or more - are you preparedThe excesses of the past 8+ years have driven RE prices to very high levels. Simple price channels and Standard Deviation channels suggest the unwinding of this bubble may see Real Estate price levels collapse -25% to -30% or more over the next 12+ months.
The US Fed, in an effort to combat inflation, will likely raise rates again - pushing sellers even further into an effort to DUMP assets before buyers are able to react to the shifting market climate.
My interpretation of what is happening is consumers are pulling away from making big purchases as global assets bubbles are unwinding. The US asset bubbles have just started this process - unlike China and other areas. I see the Fed bursting another RE bubble and sending price levels far lower.
Get ready, the fun is just starting (again).
O (Realty Income Corporation) - Bearish Multiple Top - DailyO (Realty Income Corporation) stock price has reached a two-year, all-time-high resistance zone of $72.56.
If resistance holds strong, the stock price could pullback over time to test support below.
O (realty income corporation) reports earnings on 05/04/2022.
Entry (short): $71.56
Profit Target +4% (exit): $68.59
Stop Loss -2% (exit): $72.91
Utilize stop loss, position sizing, risk management.
Note: XLRE real estate ETF has also begun to pullback on a daily chart.
All content is Not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
4/10/22 ORealty Income Corporation ( NYSE:O )
Sector: Finance (Real Estate Investment Trusts)
Market Capitalization: 43.145B
Current Price: $72.16
Breakout price (hold above): $72.45
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $70.90-$69.20
Price Target: $76.80-$77.90
Estimated Duration to Target: 76-80d
Contract of Interest: $O 6/17/22 72.5c
Trade price as of publish date: $2.15/contract
KOLTE PATILHello,
Welcome to this analysis of KOLTE PATIL a real estate segment stock.
In the weekly time frame after a long consolidation it has given an INVERSE HEAD & SHOULDER breakout suggesting upside levels of 375-400-425.
It has formed a strong base near 250.
Stock can also turn out to be a multi bagger in the long run.