Get started

Recession

US Recession Imminent! WARNING!Bond traders are best when it comes to economics. Stock traders not so much. As the chart shows, historically, when rates bunch up, what follows is a recession. During the recession, the economy tries to fix itself by fanning out the yield curve, marking it cheaper to borrow and boosting the economy. The best time to be buying up stocks and going long the market is when the yield curve is uninverted and fanned out wide—not when it is bunched up like this. My followers know this is my first warning of a recession since FEB. 2020. WARNING! Things can get ugly from here very quickly!
TVC:US30YShort
by RealMacro
3
Recession searches spike on Google!!Good day traders and investors., The term recession has had a few spikes over the years since Google has been around, but what does it mean? These searches are typical made by the common folks. Did the herd get it right this time?? Probably not, I have generally bet against them. The Google search trends has the data to back the information. Generally this means the bottom is either in or close. Also on two occasions there have been a couple of back to back spikes. Almost like one was a precursor. You can see very clear in this naked chart of the DOW JONES, that only includes the GOOGLE TRENDS search of the term “RECESSION”. I have time aligned the GOOGLE TRENDS data to the DOW JONES it really shows a clear picture. The herd is always a day late and a dollar short. By the time they are searching it most of the pain is gone and the market is at or near a bottom. The only question that remains is, how long? If it lasts too long it could hurt any forward movement. Let me know what you think Kind regards, WeAreSat0shi
TVC:DJI
by WeAreSat0shi
Target | TGT | Long at $105.75Target NYSE:TGT Strengths: P/E: 11.82x Earnings are forecast to grow 4.95% per year Dividend: 4.24% Better "value" compared to others (i.e. NYSE:WMT ) Insiders recently awarded options May have double-bottomed (see weaknesses below...) Weakness Economic headwinds / recession concerns Debt-to-equity: 1.09x (slightly high) Several price gaps on the daily chart are open below the current price. If recession fears are valid and news to messages "tighter consumer spending", these gaps will likely be filled (all the way down to the GETTEX:50S ). One day these will be filled, but that would be a huge opportunity for long-term investors... Thus, at $105.75, NYSE:TGT is in a personal buy zone. Targets $119.75 $137.00 $150.00
NYSE:TGTLong
by WorthlessViews
Credit Spreads - About to Blow?While credit spreads, which reached near-historic lows in 2024, remain tight, they have widened notably since the beginning of 2025. If this trend accelerates, it could put substantial pressure on the bond market, resulting in tighter financial conditions and corresponding headwinds for the domestic economy. The last 2-3 weeks have seen risk assets come under pressure, but the below chart suggests that the risk-off sentiment shift may still be early-stage... Whether viewed through a traditional technical lens or supply/demand, current levels could be considered supportive - risk is to the upside. A few impacted ETFs: NASDAQ:IEF , NASDAQ:TLT , AMEX:HYG , AMEX:JNK Jon JHartCharts
FRED:BAMLH0A0HYM2Long
by JHartCharts
WE ARE COMING OUT OF A RECESSION. NOT GOING INTO ONE.This chart shows 10-year yield, which is closely tied to mortgage rates, minus the Federal funds rate. When this figure is negative, it typically indicates that we are experiencing a recession or economic downturn. Conversely, a positive number usually aligns with economic growth, often referred to as the good times. While it's up to you to determine the reasons behind a official recession not being declared during the Biden administration, the undeniable data reflects a prolonged period of economic strain. However, the current trend seems to be shifting towards a positive reading, which should lead to more accessible lending and economic growth. AKA The good times are coming.
TVC:US10YLong
by BallaJi
2
SPX to dump 30% - 50% for Inflated Expectations in 2026I like to say the narrative follows the price . This was bound to happen after such an overheated year, couple years. Blame whomever you want, in the end its your wallet if you aren't ready to have your expectations met. Best case scenario, the breakout of macro is confirmed after the retest (blue arrows). Worst, more likely case, it smashes down to confirm a double bottom with a strong foundation to form a macro support. The sawtooth can provide opportunities for volatile scalps, but its gonna get gnarly I can already tell.
SP:SPXShort
by D4NKM4CH1N3
EURUSD PoVIn recent months, inflation data in both Europe and the United States has shown contrasting trends, creating an uncertain outlook for the EUR/USD pair. In Europe, inflation has remained relatively stable, but with signs of a slight increase, while in the United States, there has been a more pronounced rise in consumer prices. This scenario has prompted the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve to carefully assess their respective monetary policies, with potential interest rate hikes in the future. At the same time, recent trade policies under U.S. President Donald Trump have added further volatility to the currency market. In February 2025, Trump imposed significant tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China, raising global concerns. The European Union criticized the Trump administration for not engaging in negotiations to avoid such tariffs, increasing trade tensions. Trump's actions, including the introduction of a universal 10% tariff on all imports and a 100% tariff on cars produced abroad, have raised questions about their effectiveness in strengthening the U.S. economy and reducing the trade deficit. If these policies do not produce the expected results, we could see the dollar weaken, with the EUR/USD pair potentially surpassing the 1.09300 level, a liquidity intersection point. On the other hand, if Trump's measures prove effective in improving the trade balance and supporting the economy, the dollar could strengthen, pushing the EUR/USD pair towards parity. In summary, the future direction of the EUR/USD pair appears uncertain, influenced by central bank policies and U.S. trade strategies, with potential significant movements depending on the effectiveness of these measures.
by Generazione_X
BTC PoV The projection of a potential rise in Bitcoin (BTC) starting from liquidity points at 75K, 65K, and 57K suggests a recovery dynamic from a bearish phase. If BTC were to rise above the 75,000 USD level, it could trigger a significant bullish push, as this is an important resistance level that, once broken, would open the way for new highs. This would mark the end of a correction and the resumption of the bullish trend. On the other hand, if the price were to drop to 65,000 USD, this level could represent an accumulation opportunity, with a potential recovery from this zone, confirmed by an upward movement. In a worse-case scenario, if BTC were to fall to 57,000 USD, it would be a key support level, a zone where the market could attempt a rebound. If the buyers' response were positive, BTC could find the strength to rise again and resume its bullish trend. Essentially, the liquidity points at 75K, 65K, and 57K are critical levels in determining the future direction of BTC, with a potential recovery depending on the market’s reaction to these supports and resistances. In parallel, a potential recession in the United States could directly impact the value of the dollar, with significant implications for Bitcoin. During a recession, the Federal Reserve's monetary policies could become more accommodative, with interest rate cuts to stimulate the economy. This increased liquidity could drive investors toward assets like BTC, as Bitcoin is seen by many as a hedge against inflation and the depreciation of the dollar. If the recession were to weaken the dollar, BTC could benefit from increased demand for cryptocurrencies as an alternative to the traditional monetary system. However, if the Fed were to counter the recession with policies that strengthen the dollar, possibly to attract foreign investments, the price of BTC could suffer, as a stronger dollar might reduce Bitcoin's appeal as a safe-haven asset. In conclusion, BTC's future direction depends not only on its technical levels but also on global economic policies and macroeconomic dynamics, which could favor a BTC rally if the recession weakens the dollar, or slow its growth if the dollar maintains strength.
VANTAGE:BTCUSDLong
by Generazione_X
GLOBAL RECESSION IS COMING!The chart provided depicts the **US Dollar Index (USDOLLAR)** on a monthly timeframe, highlighting a bearish outlook. The analysis suggests a significant downturn in the value of the US dollar, which could have profound implications for the global economy. Here's a breakdown of how this scenario could lead to a global recession: Key Observations: 1. Lower High Formation : The chart shows a lower high forming after a previous peak, signaling potential weakness in the dollar's long-term trend. This aligns with bearish market structure, indicating that sellers are gaining control. 2. Fair Value Gap (FVG) : The annotation mentions that a "Monthly FVG" has been respected. FVGs are imbalances in price action often revisited before continuing the prevailing trend. In this case, the FVG rejection reinforces the bearish continuation. 3. Projected Downtrend: The red arrow projects a steep decline in the US dollar's value, suggesting a collapse or sharp devaluation over the coming months or years. Implications for a Global Recession: 1. Weaker Dollar and Global Trade : As the world's primary reserve currency, a collapse in the US dollar would disrupt global trade and financial systems. Countries heavily reliant on dollar-denominated trade or debt would face increased costs and financial instability. 2. Debt Crisis in Emerging Markets: Many emerging economies hold significant amounts of US dollar-denominated debt. A devalued dollar could lead to capital flight, higher borrowing costs, and defaults, triggering financial crises in these regions. 3. Commodity Price Volatility : Since commodities like oil and gold are priced in dollars, a sharp decline in its value could lead to extreme volatility in commodity markets, further destabilizing economies dependent on imports or exports of these goods. 4. Investor Panic and Market Sell-Offs : A collapsing dollar would likely trigger panic in global financial markets. Investors may flee to other safe-haven assets like gold or cryptocurrencies, leading to sharp declines in equity markets worldwide. 5. Global Economic Contraction: With trade disruptions, financial instability, and market volatility, global economic growth would slow significantly. Central banks might struggle to stabilize their economies due to reduced policy effectiveness amid currency turmoil. Conclusion: The chart's bearish projection for the US dollar suggests that its collapse could act as a catalyst for widespread economic instability, potentially leading to a global recession. This scenario underscores the interconnectedness of currencies, trade, and financial markets in shaping economic outcomes worldwide.
FX:USDOLLARShort
by BernerFX
US10 YR Yield Weekly Chart Analysis: NFAUS10 YR Yield Weekly Chart Analysis: NFA -After sweeping the previous swing high we retraced back to 50% Fib(Equilibrium) -Expecting this Week's candle wick to sweep Sellside Liquidity-1 and bounce -If we bounce from here, iFVG-W (red rectangle) will be our resistance zone -Rejection from that level can send it back to sellside and our next target will be BISI-W(green rectangle) If any of these Support/Resistance levels are invalidated i will update the idea next week. **Major economic events can cause drastic moves and invalidate these levels**
TVC:US10YShort
by CryptBo88
S&P 500: Rejection at Resistance and Potential Downside RisksThe chart shows a clear rejection from a key resistance zone around 6,150 points, highlighted by the red area. After an attempt to break through, the price faced strong bearish pressure, falling back below the 6,100 level. The current retracement has led the price to test the 50-day moving average (yellow), which has so far provided temporary support. However, breaking this structure could increase the risk of a sharper decline toward the intermediate support at 5,924, marked by the dashed yellow line. Recent macroeconomic releases, such as the decline in retail sales and weakening consumer confidence, are weighing on market sentiment, increasing pressure on stock indices. Additionally, uncertainty related to tariffs proposed by the U.S. administration is adding volatility, with investors showing signs of risk aversion. If the price fails to quickly recover the 6,100-6,150 area, the next bearish target could be the more structured support zone at 5,850-5,800, identified by the lower blue area. In summary, the technical structure reflects a moment of uncertainty with a clear rejection from the weekly resistance. A recovery above 6,100 could bring buyers back in control, while further weakness would open the door to new declines toward lower support levels.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
SP500 - #SPX melt up targets for cup and handle pattern.BLUE SKIES Would you have believed it If you were told a year ago. When every expert was predicting a recession. (which will come of course but when no one is expecting it ) So the conditions are set for a melt up I believe #Bitcoin bottoms very shortly maybe this week or next (grab some bitcoin miners!) ENJOY THE NEXT few months! #CNBC will trumpeting SOFT LANDING Investors will believe interest rates are falling because of low #Inflation Which is when the next slowdown will hit. This cycle has been crazy and hard to follow the main trend. The stimulus was unprecedented Remember this cycle started in 2009... 15 years ago We are near the end! But first SPX to smash 5000 and than potentially we hit that 6000 number
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by BallaJi
2
DXY 1W Forecast until the end of MAY 2025Up-trend will resume and last until the end of February 2025 topping no higher than 114. Current bottom is in at 105.9 Hence, it shouldn't fall below. After February a consolidation period of 1,5 months will trap price action between the bottom of 122.16 and upper level of 114.9 The spring squeezed during consolidation will provide enough energy for further upwards movement starting in the end of April 2025. This will ignite a chain of devaluation of national currencies followed by epidemic inflation across the globe. This will finish/cool-down at DXY reaching the mark of 148. New reality after May 2025?
INDEX:DXY
by discarding
Macroeconomic History Tells Us Rough Times Are AheadIn 2023, I did a write up on TradingView about how there is a positive correlation between interest rates and equities, meaning that equites tend to decrease when interest rates decrease. However, correlation does not equal causation. The real correlation is between poor economic data and the stock market, where the poor economic data spurs interest rate cuts and causes a fall in equities. The recent surprisingly bad July jobs report jolted the markets, and reasonably so. The Fed decided to hold interest rates steady in July, causing some to think that they may be behind the curve. Not to mention the Sahm Rule flashed positive; an economic observation that has never been wrong in being a precursor to a recession. fred.stlouisfed.org I am of the party that the Fed is behind the curve In the past, Jerome Powell has stated that he doesn't expect a "severe" recession, and that there could be a "softish" landing, hinting at the difficulties that the Fed faced in preventing a recession altogether. I believe that the stock market will continue to fall, mixed with large rallies (which will make buying the bottom difficult), and I think this will play out for many months. So what's my plan? I sold my LEAPS before the poor jobs market data was released, saving my bacon to be honest. I sold my HOOD profits as well, as I had made a 100% return. I then took both and dumped the funds into QQQ. I do not hold cash in case I am wrong. I would rather be wrong and invested than wrong and sitting on cash. I plan on waiting until the Q's drop another 20% or so before buying LEAPS. Typically, I advise only to put 10% into LEAPS, but this could be a rare opportunity where risk on could pay of in a big way. When I do decide to jump in, I will buy LEAPS with expirations two years out. I want to give them the longest time frame possible because I know I won't be able to time the bottom perfectly. The real risk is waiting too long Wait too long, and I miss a big opportunity. However, being exposed to equities, I'll still ride the wave up. If I'm wrong altogether, I'm still invested in equities and will ride the wave up. I will still be somewhat hesitant to invest into LEAPS through this rate cutting cycle considering history warns against leveraging into QE. Thank you for coming to my Ted Talk. InTheMoney
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by InTheMoneyAdam
2
The Coming EU Recession into 2028, Mercedes BENZ $MBG Triple TopThe principal pillar of the European economy is Germany, recognized as its wealthiest nation. A parallel can be drawn to the adage regarding America: when it experiences a minor setback, the global economy often faces significant repercussions. It is often asserted that the essence of "Deutschland" is deeply rooted in its automotive industry, leading to its moniker as "Autoland." German automobiles have consistently been esteemed as the finest globally. In fact, the most thriving economic engine in Europe has been heavily dependent on the automotive sector, and the initiatives aimed at addressing climate change have been likened to the act of vanquishing a vampire—driving a stake through its heart. Volkswagen, the biggest car maker in Europe, is warning that it might have to cut thousands of jobs and close some factories in Germany. This is happening because they are having tough talks with unions about rising costs. The push for climate-friendly cars has really affected how many people want to buy new vehicles, and they are also facing strong competition in the electric car market. The news about job cuts and possible factory shutdowns is causing a big stir around the world. Other car companies like Mercedes Benz, BMW, and Ford are also making cuts and letting employees go. Volkswagen is planning to lay off tens of thousands of workers and is even thinking about closing some factories, which is a big deal. Bosch, the largest auto parts supplier in the world and a major employer in Germany, is also cutting hours and pay for around 10,000 workers. Even Meyer Werft, a shipbuilding company that has been around since the 1800s, recently needed a huge bailout of $423 million to stay out of bankruptcy. The economic strategies implemented by Brussels have significantly weakened the overall economy of the European Union. Germany has remained committed to the traditional Mercantile economic model, maintaining elevated tax rates to curb inflation while producing goods for export to generate profits. In 2023, the automotive sector is projected to represent as much as 17% of Germany's exports. This sector has created over 750,000 jobs. However, German manufacturing has struggled to achieve a full recovery since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, currently reaching only about 90% of its pre-pandemic output.
XETR:MBGShort
by BallaJi
US Debt Exploding Relative To Real GDPUS debt has risen more than 90% since 2016, with no meaningful increase in economic growth inflation-adjusted (Real terms) meaning we pay more for goods and services showing a higher nominal GDP. As you can see in the chart the economy used to grow faster than debt and even outpaced debt in 70s, 80s and 90's. As I have shown before on tradingview, The annual US Gov't spending as a percentage of annual GDP is now 45% and it has been even higher. My question to you is this. next recession when Real GDP falls and politicians tell you we have to increase deficits and spending to "stimulate" the economy. How much higher will the debt go relative to real GDP?
FRED:GDPC1Long
by RealMacro