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Recession

SPY CRACK! WARNING!We are in the "honey" phase in Stocks. This is the part where they tell you: -Don't panic -Stocks are cheap forward EPS -Nible on the way down -Diversified portfolio wins.. -It's a stock picker's market -There is a lot of cash on the sidelines -It's just a reset -It's a correction -We needed this to shake out the weak hands -Buy when there is blood in the streets, even if it's yours -There is a lot of value in... -This is your last chance to... -This and that stock are going to $1,000 -Stocks are the best investment over the course of time The list is endless to get you to buy or stay in and suck up the pain. They will "Future Fuke" you the world. I will remind you that you cannot buy unless you first sell! No one has endless money, and your 1% addition monthly will not lower your cost basis. All I can tell you is what this chart shows! A BIG CRACK! WARNING!!! Click like, follow, subscribe, and let me help you navigate these crazy markets.
AMEX:SPYShort
by RealMacro
14
OPEC Cuts Oil Demand Forecast While Increasing SupplyOil prices are feeling bearish pressure. OPEC was unable to increase production significantly last year to stabilize prices. High interest rates have kept global economies cool enough. However, starting in May, OPEC will begin unwinding its voluntary production cuts. The timing of this decision is questionable. Tariffs are expected to hit global economies hard, while the Fed is likely to hold rates steady for a few more months. Recession risks in the world’s two largest economies, the U.S. and China are rising. OPEC has acknowledged this trend by lowering its oil demand forecast for 2025 and 2026 by nearly 10%. If summarized: Oil demand is expected to fall 10%, possibly more if the U.S. and/or China enter recession. Trump is expected to boost U.S. drilling, increasing supply. OPEC will start to unwind supply cuts, increasing supply. Brent is likely to remain under bearish pressure throughout the year because of rising supply and falling demand. As long as the current fundamental outlook remains unchanged, upward moves should be viewed as selling opportunities. A downtrend channel has formed since mid-2023, with the lower boundary recently tested. There is now an upward reaction. If this continues toward the 68.25–70.70 zone—previously a demand zone, now a potential supply zone—traders may look for short entry setups, provided this zone holds, with nearby stop-loss levels.
BLACKBULL:BRENT
by ftdsystem
gold and inflation in 1970s stagflation fomc member repeatedly saying this is not stagflation like 1970s but gold bug on social media constantly pump stagflation narrative after gold historic run from $2000 to $3000 in just one year with usa cpi and gold chart in one image you can get idea how gold moved in last stagflation crisis with big political news : when paul volcker comes into fed and when Ronald Reagan wins election gold first makes double top before multi year bear market inflation peaked after volcker get fed control but before election result. is this is really replay of 1970s ? we got same old president trump and same old fed chair powell ✅ biden forced fed to do big size 50bps cut pre election to choose inflation over higher unemployment which is stagflation ✅ in his first term trump in election year March 2020 use covid as excuse to cut 0% and do QE and trillion dollar fiscal policy stimulus check. choosing inflation over high employment which is stagflation but it was biden who has to face most of the inflation spike to 9% ✅trump raise tariff to 100 years high to choose high employment over inflation which is recession ✅ in next 4 years it will be clear is this replay of 70s or not. in future we will have more inflation and gold price data to confirm
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by Sangam-Agarwal
BITCOIN 2025 - THE LAST HOPECRYPTOCAP:BTC currently finds itself at the intersection of geopolitical tensions and broader macroeconomic uncertainty. Although traditionally viewed as a hedge against systemic risk, it is presently exhibiting characteristics more aligned with high-risk assets. The FED's forthcoming policy decisions will likely play a pivotal role in determining whether Bitcoin stabilizes or experiences further downward pressure. The chart represents the most optimistic scenario for Bitcoin to date
CAPITALCOM:BTCUSDLong
by maxty
Merck & Co. (NYSE: $MRK) Sets Up Q125 Earnings Call for April 24Merck & Co. (NYSE: NYSE:MRK ) will hold its Q1 2025 earnings call on April 24 at 9:00 a.m. ET. Company executives will present financial results and performance updates during the call. As of April 4th, 2025, MRK closed at $81.47, down $4.92 (5.70%). The stock has declined steadily since peaking at $134 in June 2024. In Q4 2024, Merck posted global sales of $15.6 billion, a 7% increase from the previous year. Sales growth stood at 9% when excluding foreign exchange effects. Full-year 2024 revenue reached $64.2 billion, a 7% increase over 2023. Human health sales grew 8%, driven mainly by oncology treatments. KEYTRUDA remained the company’s top product with sales of $7.8 billion in Q4, rising 21%. WINREVAIR generated $200 million in sales, while new vaccine CAPVAXIVE added $50 million. The Animal Health division showed strong momentum, growing 13% year-over-year. Merck’s global reach extended to nearly 500 million people in 2024. However, GARDASIL vaccine sales dropped 18% in Q4 due to lower demand in China. This led Merck to pause GARDASIL shipments to the region temporarily. Operating expenses for the quarter totaled $7.4 billion. The company reported a gross margin of 80.8%, up by 3.6 percentage points. Earnings per share came in at $1.72. For 2025, Merck expects revenue between $64.1 billion and $65.6 billion. EPS guidance is set at $8.88 to $9.03, excluding foreign exchange impact. The Medicare Part D redesign could reduce revenue by about $400 million in 2025. This would affect WINREVAIR and other small molecule oncology drugs. Technical Analysis MRK stock is currently testing a major support level at $81.A confirmed breakdown at this critical level could push the stock lower. Price momentum and volume suggest a likely continuation of the bearish trend unless support holds. With the bearish pressure in place, the next support level lies at $70. The weekly chart shows consistent lower highs and lower lows since June 2024. MRK has fallen nearly 65% from its peak of $134. If the $81 current support holds, a short-term rebound is possible, with an immediate resistance target around $95. Reclaiming this level may signal early signs of a trend reversal. If a strong break at the $81 level is witnessed, the next target remains the $70 support. The current trend favors sellers. One thing to watch closely is the April 24th, 2025, earnings call as performance updates may provide clarity on near-term price direction.
NYSE:MRKShort
by DEXWireNews
Crude OIL CRASH - OPEC & Trump - Recession Catalyst#Recession is here, Markets are bleeding. Crude #Oil is the kicker. I shorted TVC:USOIL on Friday. Hunting on this trade for a while now. Very #Bearish outlook on #WTI. MARKETSCOM:OIL Weekly #FundamentalAnalysis - #OPEC+ Output Hike (411K bpd) - #Trump #Tariffs & #TradeWar I'm looking at a #CrudeOIL #MarketCrash, similar to the #Covid era, when NYMEX:CL1! went in minus on #Nymex #Futures. TVC:USOIL & my BIG SHORT #Trading EASYMARKETS:OILUSD via CFDs with #Leverage. Executed my #Sell Position on #WTI at $64. * DYOR before, it's not a financial advice, I just share. #TechnicalAnalysis - #ElliottWave Impulse Cycle a (white) - #Correction in Primary ABC (red) - #LeadingDiagonal in Primary A (red) - #Descending Triangle in Primary B (red) Why will BLACKBULL:WTI Crash? #Bearish Primary C (red) has started. #Break-out below the Triangle Flat Line. Important Note: The #Bearish #Impulse will continue lower. After the short-lived pull-back, Sellers will dominate. $63-64 Range is the Entry. MARKETSCOM:OIL Daily TVC:USOIL #Short #TradeSignal - Entry @ $63-64 Range - SL @ $73 - TP1 @ $40 - TP2 @ $30 - TP3 @ $20 Stay in the green and many pips ahead! Richard (Wave Jedi)
TVC:USOILShort
by EW4X
How bad will it get? Let's talk about it!🌟 My Market Probabilities: 🌟 1⃣ 15% chance of a V-Shape recovery with a bottom at $410–$425 2⃣ 45% chance of a COVID-like Flash Crash resolving at $385–$400 3⃣ 33% chance of a 2022-level bear market down to $330–$350 4⃣ 5% chance of a 2008-level crash hitting $250–$260 5⃣ 2% chance of a crazy Dot.com-level crash dropping to $90–$110 💡 No matter which scenario unfolds, it’s a blessing in disguise! These dips create incredible opportunities to invest in great companies or indexes like the AMEX:SPY or NASDAQ:QQQ paving the way for massive, life-changing wealth over the years and decades to come. 🚀 Think long-term as an investor, friends, and stay focused on the bigger picture!
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by RonnieV29
8
Apple Inc. (NYSE:$ AAPL)Drops $300B+ in Tariff- Fueled Sell-OffApple Inc. (NYSE:$ AAPL) faced a massive sell-off on Thursday, April 4th 2025, with its stock closing at $188.38, down $14.81 (7.29%). This marked Apple’s worst trading day since March 2020. The steep drop came after former President Donald Trump announced a new set of tariffs targeting 185 countries, including major U.S. trading partners. As a result, Apple’s market capitalization fell by more than $310 billion in a single day. These newly imposed tariffs, effective April 9th, include a 10% blanket duty on all imports, with higher rates applied to specific countries. China, Apple’s primary manufacturing hub, will face a combined 54% tariff—34% newly imposed, added to an existing 20% rate. Other affected regions include the European Union (20%), Vietnam (46%), Taiwan (32%), and India (26%). Analysts consider Apple especially vulnerable to these policies due to its heavy reliance on overseas production, especially in China, where nearly 85% of iPhones are manufactured. According to Dan Ives of Wedbush, future exemptions to these tariffs may depend on Apple’s efforts to localize its operations within the U.S., a move hinted at by the company earlier this year. However, no details have been confirmed regarding whether Apple’s U.S. expansion plans will qualify for tariff relief. The timing of the policy combined with Apple’s exposure to international supply chains, led to a bear shift in market. Technical Analysis: Apple Breaks Below Key $197 Support Apple’s price action shows an impulsive breakdown below the key $197 strong support level. The price is currently trading around $188, trading towards next support at $167 as the immediate support. A drop below $167 could push the stock lower to a long-term support around $125, which was lastly retested in Dec 2022. On the upside, any recovery would first need to reclaim the broken support at $197, which now acts as resistance. The all-time high around $260 remains far away from reach unless the overall stock market sentiment improves. Looking ahead, the chart outlines two likely scenarios. In the bullish case, Apple may find support around $167, bounce back and attempt to break above $197, possibly re-establishing it as a support zone. In the bearish case, failure to hold $167 could push the stock lower to test $125, and if that level breaks, the price may continue downward. The current market outlook suggests a wait-and-see approach, to what happens at key level, as both macroeconomic news and technical levels continue to drive Apple stock lower.
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by DEXWireNews
Goldman Sachs Raises Recession Odds to 35% Amid Tariff Fears Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) has lowered its S&P 500 year-end target again. The firm now sees the index ending at 5,700 points, down from its earlier forecast of 6,200. This revision comes just days before President Trump’s new round of tariffs is set to begin. The updated target implies only a 2% gain from Friday’s close of approximately 5,597. Chief U.S. Equity Strategist David Kostin pointed to rising tariffs and slowing economic growth as key concerns. The revised forecast reflects a cautious outlook in light of economic risks. This is the second time Goldman has slashed its target this month. At the same time, Goldman Sachs has raised its 12-month recession probability to 35%, up from a previous 20%. Chief Economist Jan Hatzius explained that higher tariffs and softening economic data contributed to the decision. Goldman now estimates the average U.S. tariff rate will rise to 15% in 2025, compared to an earlier projection of 10%. Alongside these changes, the bank has cut its Q4 2025 U.S. GDP growth forecast to 1.0% from 1.5%. The adjustment follows weakening household and business confidence. Recent White House comments also suggest officials may accept short-term economic strain to pursue long-term trade objectives. These developments reflect growing concern across Wall Street. Goldman’s 5,700 target ranks among the lowest of major forecasts. With markets already on edge, the new projection underscores broader fears over trade tensions and economic resilience. Technical Analysis: Bearish Momentum Below $500 The S&P 500 has turned bearish after falling below a key support at $510. This level had held firm previously but now acts as resistance. The break and close below the key level signals strong bearish pressure and there is a possibility of more bearish momentum. Price is currently trending lower towards the next potential support at $440. If it breaks below it, further drop could follow. The bearish pressure may continue unless the bulls defend the key support level. However, if the bulls can finally defend the $440 level, it could potentially recover and target $510. In that case, the first resistance to overcome is $510. If it is also broken above, the next target would be the $592 resistance zone. A break above $592 could revive bullish momentum. As of April 4th 2025, Goldman Sachs stock closed at $21.74, down 1.50% on the day. Investors await further updates ahead of the earnings report due April 14th 2025.
NYSE:GSShort
by DEXWireNews
US10 YR Yield Weekly Chart Analysis: NFAUS10 YR Yield Weekly Chart Analysis: NFA -After sweeping the previous swing high we retraced back to 50% Fib(Equilibrium) -Expecting this Week's candle wick to sweep Sellside Liquidity-1 and bounce -If we bounce from here, iFVG-W (red rectangle) will be our resistance zone -Rejection from that level can send it back to sellside and our next target will be BISI-W(green rectangle) If any of these Support/Resistance levels are invalidated i will update the idea next week. **Major economic events can cause drastic moves and invalidate these levels**
TVC:US10YShort
by CryptBo88
HOLY MOLY! ARE WE IN A RECESSION? $TSLA $120 BEAR FLAG PATTERNA bear flag trading pattern is a technical analysis formation that features a downward-sloping flagpole, followed by a consolidation phase forming a parallel channel. This pattern suggests a potential sharp decline or continuation of the downward trend I also notice a head and shoulders pattern, as well as an inverse cup and handle. Everything points to $120. Sell/Short NASDAQ:TSLA right now with fact check: +brand reputation risk, high competition, loss of EV market leadership, cyber truck/ product recalls, declining sales with lower margin, stock volatility concern, insider selling, investors buy it based on expected future earnings rather than its current profitability. + potential stagflation, tariff war, slow economic growth, inflation, rising public debt, geopolitical tensions, ai bubble, and more
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by sej4974
3
US Recession Imminent! WARNING!Bond traders are best when it comes to economics. Stock traders not so much. As the chart shows, historically, when rates bunch up, what follows is a recession. During the recession, the economy tries to fix itself by fanning out the yield curve, marking it cheaper to borrow and boosting the economy. The best time to be buying up stocks and going long the market is when the yield curve is uninverted and fanned out wide—not when it is bunched up like this. My followers know this is my first warning of a recession since FEB. 2020. WARNING! Things can get ugly from here very quickly!
TVC:US30YShort
by RealMacro
4
USOIL: Key Levels and Bullish Prospects Amid Trade War ConcernsGood morning Traders, Trust you are doing great. Kindly go through my analysis of USOIL. USOIL is currently experiencing market imbalance due to the nature of its opening range, following a gap-down decline last night in response to trade war concerns that have fueled recession fears. The price dropped from its weekly high of 72.22 to a key support zone at 69.00, which is near the week's low. As we anticipate the release of the ISM Services PMI at 3 PM GMT+1, I expect the demand zone to hold, driving the price higher—initially to fill the gap and subsequently toward the 71.35 region. Furthermore, this outlook is strengthened by the formation of a bullish Bat pattern on the M30 chart. The key levels I will be monitoring for potential price action include the previous week's high at 70.10, the five-week high at 70.62, and the 71.35 region. These areas represent significant resistance levels that could be tested as price moves upward. A break below 68.80 will invalidate this outlook. Cheers and Happy trading.
TVC:USOILLong
by Samuel124
Recession searches spike on Google!!Good day traders and investors., The term recession has had a few spikes over the years since Google has been around, but what does it mean? These searches are typical made by the common folks. Did the herd get it right this time?? Probably not, I have generally bet against them. The Google search trends has the data to back the information. Generally this means the bottom is either in or close. Also on two occasions there have been a couple of back to back spikes. Almost like one was a precursor. You can see very clear in this naked chart of the DOW JONES, that only includes the GOOGLE TRENDS search of the term “RECESSION”. I have time aligned the GOOGLE TRENDS data to the DOW JONES it really shows a clear picture. The herd is always a day late and a dollar short. By the time they are searching it most of the pain is gone and the market is at or near a bottom. The only question that remains is, how long? If it lasts too long it could hurt any forward movement. Let me know what you think Kind regards, WeAreSat0shi
TVC:DJI
by WeAreSat0shi
Target | TGT | Long at $105.75Target NYSE:TGT Strengths: P/E: 11.82x Earnings are forecast to grow 4.95% per year Dividend: 4.24% Better "value" compared to others (i.e. NYSE:WMT ) Insiders recently awarded options May have double-bottomed (see weaknesses below...) Weakness Economic headwinds / recession concerns Debt-to-equity: 1.09x (slightly high) Several price gaps on the daily chart are open below the current price. If recession fears are valid and news to messages "tighter consumer spending", these gaps will likely be filled (all the way down to the GETTEX:50S ). One day these will be filled, but that would be a huge opportunity for long-term investors... Thus, at $105.75, NYSE:TGT is in a personal buy zone. Targets $119.75 $137.00 $150.00
NYSE:TGTLong
by WorthlessViews