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Recession

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NYSE:SPOTLong
by MiguelFTCurado
1
Bitcoin Looks so BearishHello friends. i saw a big and bad shape marobuzu candle. did you see it? we back under MA55 and after a pullback to it (22100 level) i think we should preapre to breakdown 20500 level and go toward 19000 again. please control your Risks. Protect from capital is the first step for any trader and investor. be patience... we dont have good economic conditions. and winter is coming... the weather will be cold and europe cant be warm... when you cant warm yourself , you cant buy bitcoin certainly. and US interest rate will grow another 0.75 in coming months... share me your opinion please. hope all of you enjoy my analysis.
BShort
by TraderAmin-KZ
8
Stop Trading the Fed Funds RateThe fed usually hikes into growth and eases when it realizes the economy is too weak to absorb the impact of the hikes, so historically stocks usually rise as the hiking begins and crashes when the fed takes their foot off the pedal. This time the fed is late. They hike as the housing market is brought to its knees and the economy is slowing. Equities are down, but this is not due to recession expectations. The bond market has reacted to rate hikes, bond yields rise, the discount rate affects the equity market by eating away at their earnings targets. The higher the yield is, the more your company has to make than that in growth to give incentive to invest in it over just holding fixed income. Rate hikes have many systemic effects like this that increase the cost of credit and directly impact the equity market. If you're holding risk assets you're better off with the Fed holding the line with the hikes in the short term. In the longer term we are screwed no matter what levers the fed pulls. Monetary magic can not save the economy now. Easing or slowing the hikes (which isn't my prediction, but a market's hope) would be a signal to another group of market participants that we haven't seen sell anything yet who are trading based off of what easing signals. So far equities have only reacted to changes in the discount rate. They have not started pricing in a recession and current price action is a bet on temporary economic contraction with no hard landing. Three different recession, three different initial conditions, same market behavior: The probability of a soft landing is zero percent. The mystery of this market isn't the direction it's how low it's actually going to go. The more funny retail money enters this market, the higher the chance we could see unprecedented drawdowns far worse than anyone so far has expected. Everyone in retail, their aunt, uncle, grandma, and dog, is trading speculatively based off the fed funds rate. They believe that a change in the pace of hikes or basis point increases will breathe life into the economy. They have not traded a market like this before. If you think the economy can recover without a crash, park into cash and sit this one out. Stop listening to these talking heads in mainstream media telling you everything will be ok. You are the customer and the product holding up their portfolio as they exit leaving you holding the bag.
AMEX:SPYShort
by coinhoIio
2
SP500 Recession signal P2Following my previous post, we are getting very close to the final drop, which I believe will be much bigger than people anticipate. Here is the chart for the dot com crash and the 2008 financial crisis, each event has began with a small price increase and then a drop. This event then happened twice more on a larger scale, with the final, aggressive pump resulting in a large crash. We are finally starting to see the final recovery phase, with two strong green weekly candles. I first thought that the crash would happen early 2023, but now I think it could be a lot sooner. Or we could see many more green candles forming which will then result in a larger crash.
SP:SPXShort
by HBSPG
The Great Reset!!!CAUTION ONLY BIG BRAINS FROM HERE ON OUT!!! White: US 10 Year Bond Yield Orange: US Debt to GDP Blue: US yoy inflation "Inflation transfers wealth from creditors to borrowers for all sorts of nominal debt, not just government debt." -- Christopher J. Neely, Vice President at St. Louis Fed. What is the Great Reset? Is it a new 1929 Crash, a new Great Depression? No. The real Great Reset is the controlled writing down of US debt-to-GDP which has reached unsustainable levels and surpassed those at the end of WW2. In fact this chart only shows government debt (orange), in truth when you add corporate and all other forms of private debt, you get a figure currently in excess of 700% of GDP. People believe inflation is the problem, they don't understand that in most of the world it is a tool for writing down debt. This was also the case in the US after WW2. How do you write down debt measured against a country's productive output? Well, the easiest way is to increase GDP, but because in reality growth is limited (in some cases almost zero), it's easiest to do this by increasing the nominal value of GDP by ramping up inflation: Nominal GDP = Real GDP * inflation factor So by increasing inflation we increase GDP nominally and we decrease our debt with respect to productivity. So what does this have to do with the chart? Look what happened after WW2, when bond yields bottomed and debt-to-GDP peaked. These two reversed over the next 40 years until 1980, when they reversed again. Look what happened to the long-term inflation in that same 1945 to 1980 period: ignoring the many short-term spikes (known as surprise inflation), the curve slopes exponentially upwards, gently at first until culminating in the inflationary spial of the late 1970s. This same process is beginning again. We will see many short-term inflation spikes in the coming years (surprise inflation) but they will mask an underlying increase in long-term inflation. What does this mean? It means your savings will be wiped out with respect to purchasing power. It means diversify into bitcoin and other dead (non-productivity related) assets over the coming decade and decouple from the fiat. The same principle applies to Eurozone and other so-called developed countries with excessive debt-to-gdp ratios. Further reading: St. Louis Fed blog entry "Inflation and the Real Value of Debt: A Double-edged Sword" Russell Napier interview "We Will See the Return of Capital Investment on a Massive Scale" The truth is wealth is being transferred from the creditors, i.e. the citizen, to pay down government debt: as your savings lose purchasing power, the value of debt also vanishes. This is really why we say inflation is a tax!
TVC:US10Y
by cuibono
7
S&P: With Emphasis on PoorWith everyone calling for another turning point in the S&P, the short trade is becoming less crowded. I prefer SPY 300 puts dated about six months out. Here are some ridiculous arguments I've heard for the recovery. 1. The fed will pivot or pause A fed pause or pivot indicates that economic conditions are too poor to continue hiking, implying that mass layoffs are already happening. There's nothing bullish about that for growth-chasing equities desperate for earnings. Companies are tightening their balance sheet because they can't generate profit and you're buying them? 2. Inflation is sticky bro Remember when we are all experts on the used car market? I do, that's why I sold my used car for more than the price I bought it new over five years ago. The common consensus was that the prices would keep going up, well the common consensus was--as usual--dead wrong. Used car prices have been dropping ever since. The manufacturer deliver times have stabilized since and production resumed in spades. Now the price of used cars continues to drop and the experts are nowhere to be found. Where are they hiding? They're hiding under a new narrative: inflation is sticky bro. I'm supposed to believe that a stimulus can reverse the effects of a mountain of debt and poor worker demographics projected to decrease for the next five years. We aren't in the 1970s anymore, the populace doesn't have the demographics to naturally drive inflation. This is a monetary issue and crushing demand will quickly undo what was done with COVID. With supply chain disruptions no longer an issue, the last man standing is oil. Can oil alone continue to drive inflation as a singular microeconomic phenomenon while the services sector which consumes the highest amount of oil comes to a standstill? I think the answer here is no. 3. The strong dollar will drive foreign money into equities This is by far the dumbest argument I've heard people parroting, and I would really like to know where it's coming from. The idea here is that the rising dollar will cause foreign currencies to drop and this will cause those market participants to buy the dollar and then buy equities, saving the equity market for some reason. Nobody can seem to explain why these supposed market participants will buy the falling equities instead of just holding the dollar or some form of fixed income. Are these market participants completely obtuse to what happens to equities in the event that nominal growth declines and earnings fall? Do these same market participants not realize that a recession will put an eventual pause on hikes and the dollar will reach a cycle top while equities continue to crash. The whole argument is based on an assumption that dumb money will enter the market before the recession and lacks historical precedence. If you know who originated this idea, I would like to hear from you. In conclusion, there is no reasonable argument convincing enough to call a bottom for equities aside from contrarian aspirations of "stonks only go up". In which case you're in for a big surprise and only depositing your money into Jerome's money shredder. The equity bull sees SPX at 3000, the bear sees 2000, the pig buys here now calling a bottom. There's no bottom in sight here folks, and that's all.
SP:SPXShort
by coinhoIio
1
NIFTY 50, WAVES AND MOVEMENT!!FIRST, nifty used to give about 12-14%, but after the corona's bull run, nifty will give about 15-16% returns. (i have drawn the major black trend line to support my point). 2. i have drawn the corrected consolidating part for the nifty, after its corona's bull run(5 waves). 3. have a good look at MA 100(blue colour), it has touched it on 20th June and did not broke it. ADDING ON, since the consolidated waves have been completed, after it touched the MA 100, it gave a bull run and went to the top of major nifty 50's trend line. this proves that INDIA is not in a recession. 4. look at the red trend i have drawn, nifty has broken it already two times, and this week it almost broke it the 3rd time, so breaking the LOWER HIGHS, concluding again that INDIA is not in a recession. 5. i have just drawn an extended part of MA100, for view, have a look about the US MAKRETS RECESSION AND INDIA NOT IN A RECESSION, AND EVEN BASED ON THE TREND LINE. 6, what does the arcs tell me: US is mostly gonna have a recession, if they are having a cough, all will catch a cold. US MARKETS, could fall about 10%, and most likely INDIAN MARKETS will fall around 5-7%. but yes, after that there would be a new beginning, and i have drawn a path of it ina orange colour. ARCS tell that there would be a H&S PATTERN occurring, defining that US too would have a crash around that time(around 25th oct- 14th nov). the fresh start will begin from (around 14th- 12th dec). one more possibility of this could be, that nifty could once again touch the MA100 at the time of US having correction, and then a fresh starts begin. i conclude my analysis by saying, I BET ON INDIA TO BE BULLISH!! SEE YOU IN MY NEXT ANALYSIS!! (DO CHECKOUT THE LINKS SECTION)
NSE:NIFTYLong
by raghavchoudhary2016
DXY has left the LAUNCHPAD... destination 160+DXY has left the LAUNCHPAD and is unlikely to return home until its surpassed 160! From the chart we can see that DXY has... - Emerged from the falling wedge with a measured move target of +72, taking us upto 160 OR BEYOND - Has retested the falling wedge trend line and created a double bottom support - DXY has performed these feats before (1980-1985) and is showing a similar emerging shape in the chart pattern and RSI - If history repeats, we can expect this trend to continue through to Approx. 2025 Once these trends establish themselves its highly UNLIKELY that they do not go on to fulfil their potential. TIME IS RUNNING OUT for the DXY to get off this trajectory. CONCLUSION: Long the DXY, Hold your DOLLARS
TVC:DXYLong
by Fifty_Satoshi_
GOLD is a BIGGER BUBBLE than the S&P500?? Look away gold bugsThis chart shows GOLD and S&P500 on the same % change axis since 1965. Based on this timescale, GOLD has had a GREATER % rise in price than the S&P 500. But hang on, isn't GOLD price supressed and is the only asset class NOT in the EVERYTHING BUBBLE? FALSE NARRATIVE!! Zoom out to this longer time scale and see that GOLD has also ascended into NOSE BLEED BUBBLE TERRITORY, its just timed its climbs different to equities. +++ It gets worse.... GOLD has painted a HUMUNGOUS double top which is now bearing down a top of the gold chart. CONCLUSION: Gold is every much as part of the everything bubble as STOCKS and REAL ESTATE. GOLD will not be a safe haven and will fall in a similar way to stonks (MASSIVELY) in the coming depression
TVC:SPXShort
by Fifty_Satoshi_
Gold is going to CRASH!! +++ Bitcoin chart proves itThis side by side comparison shows the similarity in the evolution of GOLD and BTC price. Over a longer time span gold is painting EXACTLY the same DOUBLE TOP after parabolic rise as Bitcoin has done. Gold price is up +4,600% since 1966. Compare this to the S&P500 which is up +4,300% over the same time span. Gold price has NOT been supressed, this is a false narrative. The conclusion: GOLD is every much as part of the everything bubble as Stocks and Real Estate. Expect the coming depression to burst the bubble and for Gold to continue its rhyme of the Bitcoin rise and fall
TVC:GOLDShort
by Fifty_Satoshi_
2
Silver & Gold. Long? Short?Remain neutral/bearish on gold & silver until the US10Y, DXY, & Fed Funds Rates tops. This is the first time since the de-pegging of USD/Gold (in 1975) that interest rates & the USD have been rising. This creates an extremely tough environment for gold & silver to significantly rally being under pressure from high dollar & rising interest rates. Despite strong headwinds, there are many tailwinds as well that will lead many commodities prices higher such as, the clean transition, & the dollar (usd) devaluing. Chart: FED FUNDS Rate = Blue Line
TVC:SILVER
by brandonmattis
DBA - Invesco Agriculture Fund Commodities are currently repricing lower due to the looming global slowdown. Meaning, there is more potential downside for commodities However, There are more significant tailwinds that will push commodity prices higher in the longer term. DBA ETF broke out of yearly downtrend in 2020 indicating that higher food prices are in the global outlook for the upcoming years. A pullback is probably overdue but after prices stabilize, we can see the DBA ETF push significantly higher. The first stop is fair value (red line).
AMEX:DBALong
by brandonmattis
Great Trades are Rarely Crowded: Long TLT and Short Twitter IQEveryone is a good trader in a bull market, but in a bear market, these good traders are reduced to hopium-fueled twitter analysts watching core CPI and interest rates. The former and latter data points serve nothing more as useless, out-of-context generalities for the single-celled Wall Street Bet retail enjoyer. But recent activity across the pond has sparked interest in the bond. These traders are now converting en-masse to self-proclaimed bond market experts with the thesis: "The bond market is broken" Except, the bond market is not broken. It is operating as intended, although two lines on a chart may disagree with anyone unfortunate enough to buy at the start of the year. Why is retail sentiment like this? The simple answer is that the fed is late, but a more-elaborate explanation follows: Bond yields rise because bond prices fall. It is the acquisition of a bond at a specific market price that determines that bond's yield, as a function of the difference between that bonds underlying rate (which is fixed) and the resale price. When interest rates rise, bond prices fall because newer bonds spawn with the higher base rate. This makes prior bonds, which have a lower fixed rate, less valuable because they output less extra cheddar. People then resell these bonds for a lower price and the yield rises according to market forces (the fed does not directly control this). Shorter duration treasuries follow interests rates very closely, whereas longer dated treasuries are difficult to influence by rate hikes. Either way these are secondary or tertiary market effects. This phenomenon is what results in an inverted yield curve: you can be paid more money to lend money for a shorter duration than a longer one. But why would something so illogical even happen? The answer is because the treasury market is not just any pig, it's a truffle-sniffing pig. For every brain cell in the equity or corporate credit market, the treasury market has a thousand-fold more. With these one-thousand brain cells, this pig (specifically the longer-dated pig) is rewarded by looking further ahead into the future. What does this pig see when they look that far ahead? An recession that will obliterate the equity market like Exodia. The long dated treasuries have started to price in a recession (very slowly) by pricing in rate cuts. This is why stocks and bonds are still correlated, but the correlation has started showing signs of weakness. The longer tail of the curve is smarter and refuses to sell these bonds like a fire sale. Recessions imply a fed pause and eventual rate cut, so no more high-interest treasuries. This makes bonds desirable, and this process is only starting now. I can already feel the credit market enjoyers seething and muttering: SLR relief expired! Reverse Repo! Basil Tea! No, none of these buzzwords matter. It's true that the pandemic has modified the initial conditions of the bond market. The TLT suffered immensely as the federal reserve promised to not raise rates through forward guidance, broke those promises (as is should have), and also allowed SLR Relief exemptions to expire. This made bonds less sexy and glamorous for banks like JP Morgan because the expiry affected treasury exemptions: banks didn't need to hold additional collateral to slurp bond yields, and now they again do. It's much easier now to park money with the fed overnight and get a little more back. The RRP is a much better facility than treasuries as a result, so bond indexes have dropped even harder. SLR relief is a cherry on top, but this truffle has always tasted good without it. It's absence, and whether it is reinstated or not, should not be a determining factor in the recovery of bond prices, because: No market has currently priced in a recession, and interest rate expectations demonstrate that without a chart, but when that happens, the bond market will get top billing. Bonds will decouple from stocks and TLT will rise from the ashes like a phoenix in the next quarters, incinerating twitter and reddit soys drawing lines on a chart and shorting the index. Nobody saw it coming, they will say, but good trades are never crowded. Smart money extracts the deep value from TLT in the pre-recessionary market by going long (DCA or otherwise). Degenerate smart money is gambling with TLT long calls. Whereas most of the market is still buying stocks, crypto, and chanting that the markets are broken and the fed will come roaring in. These pigs won't find any truffles in this market. Interest rate expectations are unrealistic and the fed will have to pause sometime early 2023. The recession will destroy demand, taking growth, inflation, and equity market with it, rising bond prices and dropping bond yields. The stock market will crash (I don't consider this current price action a crash yet) and continue burning even as the fed pauses, and dip buyers will be buying a dip that keeps on dipping while you're selling your new truffles on ebay because you lost your job due to mass layoffs across the entire economy.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by coinhoIio
10
📉 S&P 500 MARKET DISCOUNTS RECESSIONS InvestMate 📉📉 Will the S&P500 Fall into the 3210-3110 zone? Is the market discounting recessions. 📉 In today's post we will look at the S&P500 index, which, in my opinion, after the end of last week and the formation of the candlestick formation of the falling star, informs us of the possibility of a drop into the levels of 3210-3110, which are determined by 2 measurements of the fibo grid, the first from the covidian bottom to the peak and the second the largest correction in the downtrend. Also corrections they are the ones of the largest downward impulse. 📉 Also paying attention to the 3 most important indicators, namely MACD, STOCH, RSI There are no signals of strength but weakness. 📉 MACD SIGNAL LINE is below the 0 line, which is an obvious signal of a long-term downtrend. 📉 STOCH has already fallen below the 20% oversold zone, which is an obvious prohibition to look for any upward positions. 📉 Also, the RSI has been below the 50 line, or trend line, for quite some time. 📉 What provokes the market to fall? 📉 📉 It is impossible to ignore the most important issue, which is the policy of the FED which, in order to fight inflation, increases interest rates, as a result of which credit becomes more expensive and major companies avoid large investments. 📉 On the horizon we see more interest rate hikes, which of course have a negative impact on the market. 📉 We are also facing a season of third-quarter results that include the country's four largest banks in terms of assets. Which are likely to lead to declines in earnings and disappointment for investors, which could contribute to another downward momentum. 📉 Also on the calendar we have U.S. producer price data on wednesday and the consumer price data report on thursday. These are two of the most important events this week that will have an impact on the future shape of the Fed's monetary policy 📉 In September, the central bank lowered its forecast for U.S. economic growth to just 0.2% in 2022 and 1.2% in 2023. 📉 Looking at all these arguments, I would encourage you to watch this index in the coming days, weeks 🚀 If you like my analysis leave a like and follow my profile 🚀
VELOCITY:US500Short
by InvestMate
1
What's next for DXY? Based on the potential 2013 cycle and fed balance sheet - anticipation is that dxy should sideway to avoid extremes - - we can't move down as we have inflation and we can't move agressively a lot more up as we will kill the markets. Dxy should stay within the projected range with slight downish bias for the next few weeks - but first emaflow entries will produce a buy signal which likely causes a test upwards which will reject and take us lower near the bottom of the green zone. Highly suggest to check as it includes all the charts that explain the mindset behind this.
TVC:DXY
by EMAflow
7
SPX - A NEW BULL RALLY INCOMING ??Hey traders, Looking at the chart thanks to the Elliott Waves analysis, I am able to have one of my plan to find a bullish rally in this bear market. It has a lot of probability that it will arrive in order to do the orange X of the WXY of the blue Y . It will be done when the orange W will touch the 50% of Fibonnacci retracement of the entire bullish trend from the march 2020. The objectives are therefore: 1/ 3530-3480 (most probable before a massive bounce) 2/ 3442-3387 3/ 3322-3272 4/ 3230-3185 In my opinion, it is therefore possible that we will be ending this year on this bull rally, before dropping for the orange Y in the first months of 2023. . . BTW, I am selling a PDF , regrouping all the knowledge I have found on Elliott Waves , from the greatest analysts books, into a clear, simple and explicative way, Contact me in private, or in comment if you don't have enough reputation point if you are interested . . Don't hesitate to comment and check my other idea
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by ModTrades
ETH - A NEW BULL RALLY INCOMING?? Hey traders, Thanks to the legendary Elliott Waves theory, I am able to visualize a plan that could tell us that in the incoming weeks we could find a very bullish momentum. Stick with me for more updates of the incoming rally. . . BTW, I am selling a PDF , regrouping all the knowledge I have found on Elliott Waves , from the greatest analysts books, into a clear, simple and explicative way, Contact me in private, or in comment if you don't have enough reputation point if you are interested . . Don't hesitate to comment and check my other idea
FTX:ETHUSD
by ModTrades
1