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Recession

Something is going to break, DXY or SPX500 take your pick IIDecision time, eminent, could not stress it more, options: 1. The DXY topped, it will break down slowly but respecting a downwards path, like oil has done, in this case the SPX500 will break up. 2. Otherwise the SPX500 will break down and it will be in a massive recessionary 2008 move downwards, breaking the June lows and, a sign that something has gone sour in the street economy, but it has to be something big, it can also be another war, and trouble is coming in the next months/years
OANDA:SPX500USD
by awesomenewsforyou2
Recessions and the Flight to SafteyEven though the great recession was ongoing for almost a year prior to being dated by the NBER, it was the announcement itself that started the massive migration from stocks to bonds. The purple square encapsulates this time range. It is best to enter this position before an announcement, which some market participants did. At the current growth rate, we will be in a recession anywhere around October - January, after mass layoffs result in unemployment across the economy. The NBER has responded more quickly in dating the more recent COVID-19 2020 recession, which lasted only a few months and announced around four months after it started.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by coinhoIio
1
How Governance Affects a Cryptocurrency's Coin Supply and PriceAs of last year, the top 3 most well-known coins - Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin - have all become "predictable" in terms of its coin supply. BTC has always had a fixed supply cap, ETH has become aggressively deflationary after its EIP-1559 upgrade started "burning" its supply, and Dogecoin is technically "disinflationary" since the rate at which the protocol issues its coins is set to slow down gradually over time. (People have estimated ~5% going downwards to 1% or less over the course of many years.) What all 3 coins have in common: 1) the supply curves for these coins are fixed and predictable 2) political leverage correlates directly with the ownership of money itself 3) the economic trajectories of each coin are basically unchangeable without some sort of centralized control Bitcoin and Dogecoin's protocol decisions are handled by the mining community (they decide which blocks to continue mining, in case there is a disagreement), and now that Ethereum has moved over to proof-of-stake, most of its major decisions will be decided by the core team itself. With proof-of-work, hash power is political leverage, with proof-of-stake, the coins itself does the same. While maxis focus on the differences between the two, at the end of the day, leverage over the system is measured in terms of how much resources you're willing to spend on your particular "vote" - it just depends on which you prefer - hash-power, or money-power. To be fair, this is how most coins operate right now since it is currently not possible to reliably do a "one person one vote" model (as is typically done in developed democracies) since identifying an anonymous wallet as a "person" is extremely difficult. So as a lesser evil, we use money-invested (aka your "stake") as means of measuring how much influence one should have on an ecosystem as a whole. (In this regard, most cryptocurrencies are similar to corporate shareholder models.) Until we have a better way of identifying people online as being "real", we're likely to be stuck with this model for a while, but not all coin systems are created equal - some will probably have better long-term viability than others. And a lot of that will be determined by how each coin handles its governance procedures. Proof-of-work systems right now have no means of reliably doing voting/governance on-chain - as a result, most coins opt to do their voting through third-party systems or platforms. While this can sometimes work, there is no "receipt" of whether the tally was legitimate or not - you just have to trust that the people conducting the polls were doing it in good faith. BTC/DOGE has never had on-chain governance and likely never will, while ETH currently possesses the potential to do, but seems unlikely now that it has also become deflationary. The "fixed supply" argument is similar to the "buy gold" argument in that there is an inherent distrust of supply curves that are "flexible" - the idea that when there is less of something it's going to be worth more is an intuitive argument that makes sense to a lot of people, at least on the surface. But ideally, you want the price of a coin to go up because there's more demand for it, rather than inflating it artificially by burning your supply - the less there is of something, the more out of reach it becomes for newcomers and people will less money, after all. So when a project puts "fixed supply" as part of its core value proposition, it's basically prioritizing the short-term appeasement of existing holders at the expense of future growth. We see a similar type of scarcity mindset (the "I got mine" syndrome) in assets like real-estate and gold as well, which are also both about to face corrections of their own. An asset starts to "bubble" when prices increase but quality goes down - then "pops" when the demand for it bottoms out as people realize that it's not worth it. Ideally, you want the economy to be flexible enough to handle swings in demand/usage, while keeping incentives aligned between all parties (investors, validators, users) at all times. It requires a very careful balancing act that exists somewhere in between fixed and infinite supply - and even better if these decisions are made through consensus mechanism rather than a unilateral decision made behind closed doors. (Tezos' self-amending protocol, combined with its on-chain governance system stands out as unique in this regard.) -- So what to do if you're an existing HODLer? Well, short to medium term, coins like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin will probably maintain their price as long as people come see it as a viable alternative to traditional assets as we get further into the recession -- that's the big bet that many are taking right now. But it does come with the understanding that it's probably only likely to happen once or twice more before the market saturates completely and hits its peak. Here crypto is at a disadvantage compared to assets like real-estate or tangible goods, since there's nothing forcing people to use BTC/ETH in particular - there are many other options in the market, after all. For more discussions about coin supply issues, here: www.reddit.com
COINBASE:XTZUSDEducation
by RyanTanaka
SPY Analysis - Sep22 month end below 370SPY to extend downtrend and is tracking to below 370 levels by Sep22 month-end DYOR; this is a point of view as I dislike the hedging of both bull/bear narratives - e.g., bulls have a "chance" to hold and 75bps "may" already be priced in AMEX:SPY Chart : Downward channels (yellow) have rejected 410 resistance/SZ (purple) Prediction (blue bars) mirrors Aug16th - Sep7th range into the future (post-Sep16) = prediction to sub-362 level (med to low likelihood) and at least below 370 (high likelihood) The aforementioned prediction tracks well to yellow channel from Aug7th high and also in range to traditional Jun high yellow channel Fear/Greed index is 36 and tracking downwards to at least early July lows Notes: Participation: 9/19 Low | 9/21 Moderate re: FOMC | 9/23 Moderate | 9/26 Low | 9/28 Low Participation: 9/30 Very high ; Levels: 390 ++ / 385 +++ / 370 +++ / 350 ++ Key level on SPX: If it breaks below 3588 - it is going lower -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Action : SPY Puts @370 Sep30 expiry ( ~2X ROI ) or put spread 370/365 for more risk (4X+ ROI) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -Welcome feedback and comments!
AMEX:SPYShort
by hprabhala1
$SPX downhill without brakesFear inside Wall Street The CNN Business Fear & Greed Index, which measures seven gauges of market sentiment, is once again showing signs of Fear on Tuesday as the broader market plunged. The VIX, a volatility index that is one of the seven components of the Fear & Greed Index, shot up nearly 8%. The Fear & Greed index was in Fear mode a week ago as well but it had recently moved back into Neutral territory following a 4-day winning streak for stocks. That streak is coming to a spectacular end thanks to the hotter than hoped for consumer price index report, as investors worry that the Federal Reserve is going to raise rates even more aggressively next week to fight persistent inflationary trends. Wall Street's mood has largely tracked the rapidly changing expectations regarding inflation and rate hikes. Just a month ago, before Fed chair Jerome Powell gave a speech that suggested more big rate increases were coming, the Fear & Greed Index was indicating levels of Greed, a sign of complacency.
SP:SPX
by icheeetah
Shorting BTC againIn our last Bitcoin analysis with our TTW (trend-time-weight) system, we clearly positioned our portfolios for a very likely steady decline in the value of BTC with a target of $20K. Now that we are here, BTC is in a stage 4 (bearish), entering the 210 MA average on the weekly chart (the reference for a bearish market in the mid and long run). Under no circumstances should we find buying opportunities right now if an active trading approach is implemented, only if a passive approach is sought. Since early summer, BTC has been at a support which, if breached to the downside, the token could reach $11K-$9K levels. The RSI on the weekly chart is clearly bearish, at minus 34, and the MACD is clearly showing a downtrend that we could take advantage of with a quantitative trend-following strategy. The probability of a trend reversal is actually very small in percentage terms, because the trend should first go through a stage 1, and then stage 2, but now it is still in stage 4, and it is quite a long way off (6-12 months, at least). In terms of all our chartist, space-temporal, fundamental, economic and manipulative analysis, the most likely scenario is a downtrend to around $11,000 in the next few months. Of course, we never know the future, and we are also prepared for a bullish pullback even if it is a very unlikely scenario, but professionally I would not see BTC as an interesting buy until the token reaches a value of around $30 000. Strategy: - Sell Stop: 16.500. - 1st Stop Loss (0.25% of our portfolio value): 20.100. - 2nd Stop Loss (0.5% of the value of our portfolio): 22.000 - 1st Take Profit (50% out): 11.000 - 2nd Take Profit (50% out): 9.000 - Margin requirements, swaps, spreads, execution model..: Depending on the derivatives exchange you use.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by blockmas
The USD has strength - The currency for long-term liquidityThe USD has shown and is showing a lot of strength in the markets over the last 12-16 months while the economy maintains growing risk of a global correction/systemic collapse. The USD is decorrelated from the Euro, Pound Sterling or Swiss Franc, to name a few of the suffering European currencies, having lost over 20% of its value in the last 12-16 months, without counting inflationary costs. In other words, holding long-term bearish currencies is not smart for any company, government, or institutional fund, without worrying about short-term fluctuations. We never know the future nor should we aspire to know it too accurately, but, from a quantitative trend-following perspective and applying the right risk and wealth management tools, most companies' cash and our cash will be safer in USD than in their uncorrelated currencies in the coming months/years. I am moving at least 60% of my fiat liquidity into USD, regardless of short term volatilities, because the fundamentals, economic and technicals are on our side. Take a look at that +75 RSI on the monthly chart, which shows a fairly strong and consolidating trend, as well as the MACD in clear uptrend. I expect the USD to correct in the short term and touch the 0.95 support/resistance that has been active for over 10 years, but for long term cash management, if you are not leveraged, I would not believe in any currency other than the international one. Strategy (spot cash, unleveraged): - Entry: anytime above 0.95. - Stop Losses: None. We are managing liquid cash from our funds. - Take Profit: None. We are managing cash. - Hedging: We could hedge the EURUSD currency pair at a DMA, A book OTC brokerage firm such as IG, Saxo, or CMC, or with futures/options, but it is not of my interest at this time.
Long
by blockmas
Huge Recession WarningWith the 2022 recession ever coming closer, more hints that it’s nearing appear. One of those hints include this graph, which shows the 1 year bond surpassing the 4% mark, and it’s more than any other bond. For the first time in more than 15 years, the 1 year bond surpasses 4%. The yield curve has been inverted for more than 1 month, and it’s still inverted. At any point Black Monday can happen and crash the market. I believe the recession that is about to happen will be worse than even the 2008 recession. It’s more of a depression, not a recession. The 1 year bond didn’t reach as high back then before the recession. TVC:US01Y SP:SPX
TVC:US01YShort
by lorinstocksinvesting
2
Selling coming in hot!MoM economic reports are beginning to show very meager results. Optimism is slowly fading out, and we're starting to have more bears in the market. Impact from interest rate hikes will take a while to show. Middle and lower income are feeling the pinch, but the market has been more resilient as we have learnt from history. The retail stock market hasn't come to a point where they need to liquidate for their livelihood or they can't take the pain from buying the bear rally. Whatever it is, we do see multiple bear rallies on the lower time frame. Zooming out, we are still in that downtrend, and rightfully so. Strong resistance become support @ 3900 is being re-tested for the 3rd time. Will it hold and close the week above support? Calling for sells on break and re-test of 3900, if it fails to break back above the key price zone of strong support/resistance.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by geneAnalytics
How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Long the Treasury MarketHave you ever been told that stocks only go up? How about not trying to time the market? If you have, you might just be the exit liquidity the credit market needs. In this chart I will help you avoid losing money in the next two quarters by rolling your portfolio into cash and the treasury market. If you have followed the last few charts, you are already sitting in a cash portfolio as we head into a disinflationary period. That's right, inflation has already peaked even though the credit market is pricing in a potential 100 basis point hike this month. What isn't being priced in is the recession coming around q4 or q1. This is an opportunity for you to roll some cash into the treasury market and make some gains on top of not losing money. You may have heard something like "the treasury market is broken bro". This is from people that don't understand the dynamics of the treasury market. The treasury instruments do not perform well when interests rates are going up, but the up and coming recession will sharply slice inflation in a very short period of time. This will result in a fed pause. This isn't priced in yet because interest expectations are too high to account for a rapid recessionary disinflation. Look at how quickly TLT started to make gains after the fed stimulated the economy during the pandemic. This is the ideal time to start a DCA into the treasury market because the credit market is still struggling to come to terms with the fact that a soft landing isn't going to happen. When they do, the treasuries will pump in anticipation of a fed pause or even a pivot. I don't think a pivot will happen without a pause, but the credit market, being the pack of wild dogs they are, will conflate the two. This is a trade that might have a very small bit of downside to it at first because of a potential basis point increase, so if you can't handle that, a DCA over the next month or two is best.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by coinhoIio
Pig Market: Why IDC about the CPI8.5 prior 8.1 expected 8.24 cleveland fed estimate ??? actual Everyone is going crazy about this CPI data like its gonna change anything. We already know inflation has peaked and will start to decline. It's doing that because the economy is slowing. The fed is still hiking and the inflation isn't going to go away fast enough for a soft landing. The markets may adjust to the data tomorrow, but it's not going to change our destiny: a recession by end of year. Find the next peak, sell it, or short it. This moon mission is cancelled and you'll be stranded in space.
AMEX:IWMShort
by coinhoIio
1
$SPY $SPX Analysis, Key levels & Targets $SPY $SPX Analysis, Key levels & Targets Literally, that’s all I’ve got today… LOL…. I’ve had so much real estate nonesense today and over the weekend that that’s the post…. 1hr timeframe/ 200MA rejection. I currently have puts on the Dec. 16th contract…. On the 425 strike… @ 27.96, so down just a little over 10%…. Looking forward to CPI and inflation report… I am seeing a lot of breakout patterns everywhere but I’m not convinced yet. My bearish bias is intact…. I also was tracking about 200 stocks… all with alerts, and I cancelled all of the alerts over the weekend and I’m going to be spending this week narrowing down my list to about 25-30 stocks that I trade regularly and resetting alerts so watch out… I’m gonna be posting all kinds of charts in the near term… not just spy/spx…. Hope y’all have fun tomorrow….
AMEX:SPYShort
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
31
Time To See If Elliott Wave Can Predict This RecessionIf we are beginning wave 3, I have us in Sub-Millenial wave 1, Grand Supercycle wave 5, Supercycle wave 2, Cycle wave A, Primary wave 5, Intermediate wave 3. I alphanumerically refer to this wave as 152A53 Intermediate wave 2 met all of its targeted movement and it bounced perfectly off of the median wave 1 retracement. With all goals met, the major drops are scheduled next. It all begins with the inflation numbers pre-market tomorrow and then followed by a week of speculation on what the Fed will do. I have both of these events occurring in Intermediate wave 3 and each event is a catalyst for the pending 700 points, Elliott Wave Theory is hinting at dropping over the next month. If this movement does not occur, my wave count is wrong or EW is complete $#*&^#%$. I have highlighted potential extension points based on historical movement for waves ending in 53 and A53. For waves ending in 53: 75% of the time (the first quartile of data) wave 1's movement is surpassed by 147.99% 50% of the time (the median) wave 1's movement is surpassed by 166.31% 25% of the time (the third quartile) wave 1's movement is surpass by 209.7% all of these levels are indicated by the yellow extension lines For waves ending in A53: Quartile 1 is 161.34% (near the "perfect ratio") Median is 193.26% Quartile 3 is 267.24% all of these levels are indicated by the light blue extension lines. My target bottom is somewhere around 3595, but we will see how intense the selling is. This could also look like capitulation selling, but I think that will actually occur in 2024. I will continue to re-evaluate as we work our way through this.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
3
Bear markets don't last as long as Bull marketsSince we last discussed the odds of a recession here, the prospect of a recession has become consensus. The issue that remains under scrutiny is the duration and intensity of the recession. The slide in stock markets has destroyed nearly US$35trn of global wealth in H1 2022. In terms of timing, the European economy is headed for a recession by year-end, while the US economy could enter a recession by the end of Q1 2023. A mild recession is expected in the US, whilst in Europe, the intensity of the recession will depend on how the energy crisis is managed. US – Fading the Federal Reserve (Fed) The US economy is showing signs of growth slowing and inflation peaking. While Gross Domestic Product (GDP) dropped for two consecutive quarters, Gross Domestic Income (GDI) rose in Q1, and real personal income ex-transfer payments increased in Q2. This increases the likelihood of a stronger GDI print in Q2. More importantly, history has shown that the gap between GDP and GDI tends to be closed, with GDP being revised closer to GDI. The labour market remains strong as jobs continue to be added, wages accelerate, and unemployment remains at a five-decade low. The decline in headline Consuer Price Index (CPI) inflation from 9.1% to 8.5% was a welcome relief to markets. The Federal Reserve path has repriced notabley since the release of the CPI report, with the terminal rate down to 3.55% from 4.25%. While inflation data cooled across non-core and core components, cyclical components like shelter remain elevated. This CPI print validates the case for a 50 basis points (bps) rate hike in September and further moderation going forward (lower than 75bps rate hikes going forward). US Q2 earnings reports have surprised on the upside, with consensus earnings expectations for the year to the June quarter rising from 5% a month back to 8.77%. It is well documented that yield curve inversions always lead to a recession. Interestingly market performance following the inversion has generally been positive. Since the most recent yield curve inversion in June, equities have rebounded similar to scenarios witnessed in the past. Europe’s recession will go hand in hand with higher energy prices Europe’s economy continues to face headwinds from the ongoing energy crisis. Inflation and growth risks have increased further. The Eurozone economy avoided a technical recession in Q2 as GDP rose more than expected by 0.7% Quarter on Quarter (QoQ). However, the growth outlook remains bleak amidst the energy crunch. Russia has weaponised energy and food supply owing to Europe’s deep dependency. The Euro area is contending with an energy-shock and inflation far greater than in the US. With energy prices, up 42% Year on Year (YoY) in June 2022, energy contributed to more than half of the 8.9% YoY inflation reading in July. Complicating matters further, the Rhine River a pillar of the German, Dutch and Swiss economies for centuries — is set to become virtually impassable at a key waypoint owing to extremely shallow water levels. This will likely halt shipments of energy products and other industrial commodities along one of Europe’s most important waterways1. A prolonged heatwave could create delays for winter energy supplies at a crucial time for Europe. In the near term, the European Central Bank (ECB) will likely focus more on current inflation than on recession risks. As a result, the ECB will front load rates by 50bps on the 8th of September, followed by 25bps moves on the 10th of October and 15th of December. Growth risks in China imply further policy stimulus China’s economy continues to disappoint in 2022. China’s Q2 real GDP growth decelerated sharply to 0.4% YoY from 4.8% in Q1, owing to the covid wave and lockdowns since March. While June activity showed signs of a broad-based improvement post lockdown, the growth headwinds have not gone away entirely. The property market turmoil continues to tarnish sentiment with new emerging risks ranging from mortgage payment strikes and declining home sales in July. Fortunately, more effective policy easing is still needed to underpin growth and support demand challenges. Defensive but not too defensive Markets like to stay one step ahead. They do not react to the news as much as they anticipate it. ‘Buy the rumour, sell the news’ is a famous idiom for a reason. In most cases, markets start to fall on the risk of an economic recession, not when the recession is all but guaranteed. This year is no exception, H1’s performance was painful for investors because the market anticipated that strong rate hikes would slow the economy even if it was still growing. Once the economy started to show signs of slowing, markets started to predict monetary easing and rebounded in July. What does our core scenario, where recession is guaranteed, and the only remaining issue is its duration and intensity, mean for investors? It means that in all likelihood, the time for very defensive positioning is gone. The recession is priced in, so going to cash or Min Volatility would have been a good idea months ago. it may be too early for cyclical, aggressive play. Markets have not yet priced in a deep or long recession. A strong, established rebound could still be months away. This leaves investors with defensively-minded, all-weather options. Equity Investment can protect the portfolio if the market starts to expect a deeper recession or participate in the upside if it anticipates a more technical recession. Figure 2 compares the performance of the different equity factors during periods of equity drawdowns. We also include in the analysis a strategy (WisdomTree Quality) combining Quality and High Dividend (focusing on Dividend growing, high-quality companies). Without surprise, the most defensive factor is Min Volatility which reduced the drawdown in all eight periods. Just behind, Quality, WisdomTree Quality and High Dividend would have helped protect the portfolio in 7 out of 8 of the periods. The rest are more cyclical and would have, in most cases, underperformed the market and delivered deeper losses. Returning to defensively-minded, all-weather options, Figure 3 focuses on the most defensive factors but then looks at the capacity of those strategies to capture positive moves. The upside capture ratio is the percentage of market gain captured by a strategy when markets go up. If the upside capture ratio of a strategy is 60%, then when the market goes up by 10%, that strategy would only go up by 6%. Clearly, Min Volatility suffers from a very low upside capture ratio. On the contrary, while being defensive (see Figure 2), Quality and High Dividend exhibit a large propensity to capture the market up moves. WisdomTree Quality is the strategy that exhibited the highest upside capture ratio. In the second half of 2022, awash with uncertainty, a balanced approach between high-quality and dividend-paying stocks could prove very useful in navigating the different ups and downs that could materialise. Definitions the Tech Bubble (4 September 2000 to 12 March 2003) the Financial Crisis (16 July 2007 to 9 March 2009) the Euro Crisis I (15 April 2010 to 5 July 2010) the Euro Crisis II (2 May 2011 to 4 October 2011) the China Crisis (15 April 2015 to 11 February 2016) Q4 2018 (21 September 2018 to 27 December 2018) Covid-19 (12 February 2020 to 23 March 2020) H1 2022 (4 January 2022 to 17 June 2022) Global equities are proxied by the MSCI World net TR Index. Min Volatility is proxied by MSCI World Min Volatility net total return index. Quality is proxied by MSCI World Quality Sector Neutral net total return index. High Dividend is proxied by MSCI World High Dividend net total return index. Value is proxied by MSCI World Enhanced Value net total return index. Momentum is proxied by the MSCI World Momentum net total return index. Size is proxied by the MSCI World Small Cap net total return index. Growth is proxied by the MSCI World Growth net total return index. WisdomTree Quality is proxied by the WisdomTree Global Quality Dividend Growth net total return index. Sources 1 German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
FRED:USALOLITONOSTSAM
by aneekaguptaWTE
2
What If Ukraine Wins?When the Russia-Ukraine conflict first broke out, world markets were in a complete shock. Equities fell and commodities rose as geopolitical tension became the dominant price driver. As fighting dragged on from weeks to months, other important factors took over. Besides the traditional supply and demand variables, we have witnessed a record shattering inflation rate, aggressive rate hikes by the Fed and ECB, and growing worry of a global recession. While geopolitical risk has been put in the back burner, it never went away. In recent days, Ukrainian forces launched a military offensive and retook Kharkiv, a Russia-occupied stronghold in eastern Ukraine. Would this be a breakthrough in the 200-day war? How would it impact world markets? Should we adjust previously employed strategies given this new development? To answer these questions, let’s first revisit our Three-factor Asset Pricing Model: Asset Price = Intrinsic Value + Market Sentiment + Crisis Premium Where, • Asset Price – Expected Price of an asset at time t, • Intrinsic Value – Trader defined fair value. It could be estimated by fundamental supply and demand factors or technical indicators. If you don’t have one, simply use the market price. This is our baseline price. • Market Sentiment – Bullish or Bearish sentiment. This can be considered the supply and demand of investor money. More buying pulls the price up above the intrinsic value. More selling pushes the price down. • Crisis Premium – When a crisis breaks out, it could introduce an “Event shock” to the market. It is a dummy variable, with 1 denoting a crisis, and 0 indicating the lack of it. In our exploration of event-driven strategies on binary outcomes on June 16th ( ), we defined the Russia-Ukraine Conflict by two possible outcomes: War and Peace . War includes all scenarios that the Ukraine conflict would continue or intensify. For the second outcome, how could peace be restored? It could come as a Russian victory (Win), a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine (Draw) or a Russian defeat (Loss). The recent Ukrainian military advances raise the possibility of an armistice. Would we see a reversal of the initial crisis shock if peace is in reach? Let’s examine the following commodities. Wheat CBOT:ZW1! In 2021, Russia accounted for 17% of global wheat export, while Ukraine had a 11% share. CBOT Wheat Futures shot up 75% two weeks after the conflict started. The price shock was a market response to “perceived” loss of 28% of global wheat supply in a worst-case scenario. Market panic tends to over-shoot. Irrational price movement could be totally out of proportion of the actual supply loss. As the conflict continued, Russian wheat found new markets in China and Iran, despite an international sanction in place. In August, Ukrainian grains resumed shipping through the Black Sea thanks to a Russia-Ukraine deal brokered by Turkey. Wheat price pulled back to below $8 a bushel as investor realized that this big portion of wheat supply is not totally wiped out even the fighting never stopped. CBOT Wheat is quoted at $8.69 a bushel last Friday, almost at the same price level when the conflict started. Where will it go next? • If fighting intensifies (War), wheat price could possibly go higher on the back of high energy price and high interest rate. • However, if a peace deal is struck (Peace), release of huge supply from both Russia and Ukraine could send wheat price sharply down. We employed a Strangle Option Strategy on CBOT Wheat Futures in June, which carried an out-of-the-money (OTM) Call option and an OTM put option. We expected a big price move as imminent, but its direction uncertain. It appears that we are in a similar situation again. Natural Gas NYMEX:HH1! NYMEX Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures was trading at approximately $4.50 per MMBtu before the conflict. It went up 70% in the following two months and was more than doubled to $9.2 by early June. After recession fear sent natural gas price down to $5.5, it has come back up above $8.00 as Russia cut off natural gas supply from the Nord Stream 1 pipeline. This triggered a major energy crisis across Europe. What would happen next? • War: Natural gas price will surge higher. Liquified natural gas from the US is more expensive, and not adequate to replace the Russian supply. Europe will be looking at an extremely cold winter. • Peace: Sanctions will be ended. The huge oil and gas supply from Russia would flow back to global market, sending energy price sharply down. Similar to CBOT Wheat, we may consider a Strangle Option Strategy on NYMEX Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures, and to buy OTM call option and OTM put option simultaneously. This trade is based on our expectation that a big price move is imminent, but its direction is uncertain. Euro-USD Exchange Rate CME:6E1! Interest rate parity (IRP) states that the interest rate differential between two markets is equal to the differential between the forward exchange rate and the spot exchange rate. As Federal Reserve started raising interest rates in March, Euro has seen the biggest depreciation against the dollar in 20 years. The battle between USD and Euro may also be viewed as a game of relative strength. • US could raise interest rates faster than Europe; • US could control inflation better than Europe; • US unemployment could be lower than Europe; • US economy could perform better than Europe, soft landing vs. hard landing; • Energy crisis could worsen in Europe as winter approaches. A peace deal could change everything. It would validate the strength of European nations in support of Ukraine. Market confidence and bullish investor sentiment would be powerful enough to reverse the steady decline of Euro currency. Peace, Euro up. War, Euro down. It looks like a Strangle option strategy to me again. The Equity Market CME_MINI:ES1! Up to this point, I have been fairly bearish about US Equity Indexes. Based on the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) asset pricing model, I expect Fed Rate Hikes and High Inflation to suppress stock valuation. • High interest rate increases the discount factor WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital), the denominator of the DCF equation • High inflation increases production cost and reduces sales volume, which results in smaller free cash flow (CF), the numerator of the same equation • The combined effect is a lower stock valuation Small-cap stock indexes such as the Russell 2000 could be in a dire situation when the fear of recession becomes a real one. Smaller companies tend to have higher cost of capital and could suffer bigger profit loss compared to the Blue Chips. New developments in Ukraine could mean an end of the war. In our three-factor model, the crisis premium could go to zero. Typically, only one factor dominates the market at any given time. In this case, a bullish sentiment could take over. It could drive stock price higher. Investors in a celebratory mood simply discount all the bad news for a while. Geopolitical dynamics is a game changer that investor can’t afford to ignore. Recent development in Ukraine has put a new layer to the series of discussions around “The Great Wall Street Repricing”. If you have made directional bets, this may be a good time to take cover. Financial market is extremely volatile this year. Getting an information edge increases your odds of success in managing risk. I suggest leveraging real-time market data for a better gauge of market situation. Tradingview users already have access to delayed data. A Pro user could upgrade to real-time CME market data for only $4 a month, a huge discount at the time of high inflation. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CBOT:ZW1!
by JimHuangChicago
44
During Recessions, Cash is King - Where Does Crypto Fit In?During recessionary economies, the money-classes that take the biggest hits are usually assets - stocks, real-estate, speculative assets, which, yes, also includes NFTs. As they say, during tough times, "cash is king". As we get deeper into it, we're going to see a big shift in the way people use and talk about their money. For crypto investors out there (or anyone in general who wants to prepare themselves for the new era that's about to unfold) the things to keep in mind are: - Asset ownership tends to skew upwards in the income bracket, which means that there will be lots of doom-and-gloom narratives coming from the top. For most people a "market crash" will be a good thing (better than getting priced out by inflation, anyway), and the result will be that the top earners will have slightly less money in relation to the bottom, evening the "playing field" so to speak. Take everything you read with a grain of salt, either way. - Cryptocurrencies are in an interesting position where they're able to function both as assets AND cash - even legally, the definition of where the technology lies in regards to the two is still unclear. But we see that some coins tend to "lean" towards one end of the spectrum more than the other. Bitcoin is largely classified as an asset ("store-of-value"), Ethereum is the former trying to move towards the latter (the "merge", "sharding"), though the fate of the latter is still unclear. Dogecoin, on the other hand, may actually see a bump in interest due to the fact that it's currently treated more as cash than an asset. (The chain also has plans on moving towards Proof-of-Stake, though the timeline is still unclear.) If cash is king, the loveable Shiba Inu mascot may, in fact, be the one to dethrone King Bitcoin sitting at the top. - The strategy for most investors during recessionary times will switch from "beating" inflation to "keeping up" with inflation - inflation will naturally drop as interest rates rise, eventually reaching an equilibrium. This presents an opportunity for coins that offer reliable staking rewards since they're currently beating the banks by a very large margin right now. (Some banks are still stuck at 0, for the record.) The average person is likely to benefit from this transition in the long run in the form of cheaper goods. (Especially for essentials, which are obviously out of control right now.) - The 0 interest rate decade-long experiment in the US economy is about to come to an end, having peaked during the COVID era where money-printing and cheap loans became at an all-time-high. (Some would describe it as the "apocalypse economy", but that's for another discussion altogether.) Many "Web3" startups of last year were part of that cash grab, and will likely run out of runway in 2023-24. (If you're having second thoughts about the "investments" you made last year, the time to get out would probably be now, in other words.) - As interest rates rise, it will get exponentially harder to raise money, even for Web3 projects. CEOs and founders will be chosen for their ability to generate revenue and turn a profit, rather than their marketing and fundraising skills. (The current crop of "thought leaders" we see in public today are a result of the low-interest "casino economy" we had over this past decade.) We're likely going to see a dramatic shift in the way people talk about startups in general, cryptocurrency projects included. - Higher interest rates will encourage people to save rather than spend, which will also change the focus of the types of products and services that companies and startups start to offer to the general public. The economy having been in overconsumption mode for so long, this will be a big adjustment for most people out there. -- Long story short, there will still be ways to "come out ahead" even during recessions, but the benefits will be more complex than seeing the numbers in your bank account simply going up. It's more that you're losing less money relative to everything else, which, in turn, increases your purchasing power overall. (If you're making the same money but rent gets cut in half, for example, you're still "winning".) I still do believe that in the long run the recession will be a good thing for most people, and that the economy will come out stronger after the dust eventually settles. The path to getting there, though, will be a rough one no matter how you put it. Good luck folks. 🤞
BITTREX:DOGEUSDLong
by RyanTanaka
10
$SPY $SPX Analysis, Key levels & Targets $SPY $SPX Analysis, Key levels & Targets Holy moly, this has not been my week. I was right, but my timing was wrong, so I was wrong… I have been keeping my trades really light because I was anticipating chop so the only new trade I opened up today was I bought a Dec 16 416 put @ 28.70 and I’m 9% down on those… I’ll hedge that one soon… Oh yeah, and I sold an SPX call spread, 4000 short/4010 long, and even that one might blow up… so yeah, not my best week… My Nov, puts are both around the 50% profit level and they are well hedged… I wanted to hold them a little longer but I’m not willing to miss out on the 50% gains and might just shut them down tomorrow and start working on adding to Dec and Jan… Weird day of economic data… Powell didn’t say anything new, which is why I think we rallied… Consumer credit reported lower meaning consumers are not taking on new debt and hoarding money under mattresses. This means earnings coming will probably be negative across all names as consumers are buckling down. Do we rally prior to earnings… I personally don’t think so but I’m open to ideas…. And It’s hard to put on neutral trades right now because the swings are so wild… I am seeing some bullish technicals on the smaller timeframes and I'm also seeing a TON of walls which is making it hard to trade right now... I'm almost thinking about just selling puts on the down swings and opening up share positions to play with... mentally I'm all over the place with what I think I want to do and super happy i made this week light... geeeze it would not have went well... MacD really isn’t supporting a move higher right now. Check out the two boxes… there’s a similar pattern there. And don’t mind my arrow after the second box… I was just thinking maybe we consolidate into that triangle formation but I don’t know about that one… There doesn’t seem to be too much sideways action at the moment… either everyone is euphoric or everyone is getting smashed up… not too much in the middle… Either way… when things get crazy keep your trades smaller and give yourself time to make adjustments by being further out… that’s another thing I’ve been doing wrong for now at least, is trading too close… Usually it works but hey - volatility sometimes means pushing further out… I’m totally open to ideas and suggestions and maybe other angles I haven’t looked at… Have a great day trading tomorrow and If you’re blowing up trades take a step back… it’s never good to revenge trade… there's nothing wrong with watching from the sidelines to get you emotionally out of the game so you can see what's actually happening... See y’all tomorrow.. —- I am not your financial advisor. Watch my setups first before you jump in… My trade set ups work very well and they are for my personal reference and if you decide to trade them you do so at your own risk. I will gladly answer questions to the best of my knowledge but ultimately the risk is on you. I will update targets as needed. GL and happy trading. IF you need anything analyzed Technically just comment with the Ticker and I’ll do it as soon as possible… give me something to analyze... something that you think will be around for the next 20 years...
AMEX:SPYShort
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
7
BITCOIN -10% DROP?$BTC dropped 8% last following Jerome Powell's hawkish messages at Jackson hole, stock market lost billions of dollars after the 8 minutes speech. Inflation is getting out of control if central banks don't move aggressively and Powell know that, this is why he sounded so hawkish : “We are moving our policy stance purposefully to a level that will be sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2%,” he said. For more clarity one should wait for the next fed meeting in 21 September, 50bps hike is expected at least. Technically, $BTC broke below the bear flag support and a new bearish impulse to the down side is expected next week as DXY soars while stock market continue going lower. Take a look at DXY: Take a look at $SPY: Take a look at US100:
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by dogofwallstreets