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Recession

#BRENT crude oil - technical picture deterioratingAs we all know, Brent crude has been one of the strongest commodities for quite some time given all the supply issues from Russia/Ukraine and under investment. Oil has lost some critical technical levels losing both its horizontal support, rising channel as well as 200 day moving average. The market can be telling us two things, potentially, (1) there is some sort of resolution to the Russia/Ukraine embargo, or (2) Economic growth slows down as we enter recession, with demand destruction starting to take place Next target is likely $86 which was an important level of resistance in prior years - and likely to become support should we drop further.
TVC:UKOILShort
by MarcoOlevano
SPY analysis-option and fundmental the big topic of this month and July has been RECESSION . I believe it depends all on the labour market now if we start to see increasing unemployment that could tip us into a recession. this is why I am short on the SPY because I believe this rally will fizzle out because there have been no real positive changes in the macroeconomics currently to fuel this rally, today we have initial jobless claims which will give us a good insight to which way the labour market is moving. which now is the main factor into the decision if we are going into a recession because the realized strength of the consumer is purely based on them receiving an income. Because of their credit card debt, the US consumer heavily relies on credit cards which could possibly mean with the labour market becoming weaker consumer spending could decrease even further as this has already started to happen. another sign that supports my view is that implied volatility has decreased and the lower the implied volatility the lower the premium paid for the option which means it will fall in value. as well as a put-to-call ratio of 1.265 which shows an increase of negativity around the SPY. currently, we have a volatility smirk for the SPY which is where the implied volatility for lower strike prices so this means investors are buying more puts(short position). this option analysis gives us a good insight into which way the SPY will move. on a micro company level, the cost of debt is increasing because of Hawkish rate hikes. if the cost of debt increases the weighted average cost of capital will increase(WACC) so for a company to be creating value its return on invested capital has to be higher than WACC. the reason I have included this is that i gives a good insight into what is actually causing these companies' value to decrease.
AMEX:SPYShort
by harrybergin
3
This recession identifies as an apache helicopterChart displays the US inflation rate and US unemployment rate. Red zones mark recessions (from stlouisfed.org). 6/8 of the past recessions are lead by inflation rates surpassing 5%. Only the dotcom recession had an inflation rate below 5%, and the other was COVID, which we are experiencing the resulting inflation currently. so, every time the inflation rate jumps, unemployment follows on a lag. we can see that the ends of recessions are usually marked by a declining inflation rate and peaking unemployment rate. but remember, this is not a recession and our country is in great hands. ECONOMICS:USIRYY FRED:UNRATE
ECONOMICS:USIRYYShort
by Feech37
1
Bitcoin Where Are We? Still Some Pain On The Horizon. I don't believe we are out of the weeds yet and still have a ways to go with this bear market. The Federal Reserve's aggressiveness towards raising interest rates to combat inflation isn't the best conditions for a bull market in asset markets in general. We still haven't had any sideways movement with Bitcoin just yet and I don't believe we've found a true bottom either. We could rally up to $28,000 or $30,000 but volume is fading and it seems like the current rally is starting to stall out. There's a big possibility that we revisit a sub $20k Bitcoin in the coming weeks or months. If the United States continues it's trend of negative growth that will not translate well into the crypto markets. It's all about the cycles at the end of the day. The goal is to accumulate during the bear as close to the bottom as possible and ride the wave into the next bull cycle.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by peacefuljustin
3
Upside for Gold as rate expectation cooled by recession riskSummary The surge in energy and agricultural commodities in the past 6 months had materialized into serious inflation even down to the consumer end across the globe. To cope with inflation, the Fed has begun to raise rate at an accelerating pace. The rise in the interest rate of the USD causes dysfunction of traditional risk haven such as Japanese Yen FX:USDJPY and Gold COMEX:GC1! . However, with more evidence that the US is very close to a recession, the Fed might need to tune down to a more cautious approach to balance between taming inflation and speeding up recession due to higher borrowing cost (and debt repayment) for business. The stabilization in rate hike might soften the already strong dollar, hence providing room for traditional risk haven assets to rebound and restore some of their risk haven property . With still ongoing global political uncertainty (see appendix for more detail), there might be further upside potential beyond rebound. One should pay extra attention to the collective transition of power globally which is happening at a similar time coincidentally. Technical and trade planning Just like most commodities, the dominant force driving gold downward is the strength of the USD. The US Dollar Index TVC:DXY had reached a new high at 107.786, before retracing back to 106.895 to close lower last Friday, creating a reverse hammer candle. While the uptrend of the dollar index is still effective, however the bearish pattern hinted the peak might have reached (or at least the upside momentum is reducing) . Similar pattern in reverse was seen in many commodities including gold, which means opportunity for rebound trade. Note that gold currently is trading below most moving averages which means the downtrend is still in power. 20 days moving average trading below the 50 days, and both pointing downward double confirm the bearish view. In rebound trade it is very important to keep your cut loss and profit taking tight. One should also adopt strategies that allow more tolerance for error (e.g. longing call option with >30-60 days to expiration). Here are some technical levels trader of gold should be aware of: Downside support (to cut loss if dropped through) 1676.7: 2021-Aug hammer candle bottom 1721.8: 2021-Sep downside retest bottom Upside resistance (to take profit if fail to go further) 1785: May-16 bottom (broke on Jul-5) 1833: 250 days moving average 1878.6: Jul-3 rebound peak Appendix: Political events to keep an eye on Asia The former prime minister of Japan, Shinzo Abe was assassinated last Friday. Abe was seen as the de facto power of Japan. He initiated and was involved in lots of Japan economic policy and China-Japan relation issues. Close ties with global leaders, he was one of the early promoters of threat emerging from growing China, which later led to global boycott of China. He also showed his support to Taiwan as he saw the country as the first line of defense of Japan from China. One of his unaccomplished goals was to revise the country’s pacifist constitution to formalize the Japanese self-defense force as army, and broaden its military agenda outside of homeland defense, to be involved in regional security issues, such as Taiwan. The death of Shinzo Abe might help the constitutional revision to gain more supportive votes, which will worsen China-Japan existing tension. The 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party will take place in November this year. One of the major topics is whether the current Chinese leader Xi Jinping will be re-elected for the next 5-years term. With lots of policy missteps that have caused material harm to the Chinese economy and financial stability, there are growing voices within the party that they might want a leader who can focus on reviving the Chinese economy instead of political ideals. At the same time, Xi is neutralizing the opposition force by revealing their evidence of misconduct and corruption (same strategy 10 years ago). The upcoming continuation or transition of power in China is going to be a very tricky one. Europe No end in sight for Russian invasion toward Ukraine, albeit increasing military support by the western powers. Inflation continues to make record highs in Europe with latest June CPI figures standing at 8.6%, energy talk with Russia is going to be very difficult especially for natural gas which is virtually impossible to get supply from other continents. The prime minister of the UK, Boris Johnson had resigned last week amid back-to-back scandals , with the Chris Pincher case became the last straw that broke the camel's back. The United States Recession risk, high gasoline price, baby formula shortage, the series of unfortunate events had taken a toll on the president Joe Biden approval rate, which dropped to just 30% in the new national poll. The negative sentiment toward democrats is likely to make the republicans take control of both the senate and the house. The democrats probably can take advantage of the recent Supreme Court’s decision of overturning Roe v. Wade, however the edge might not be enough to change much according to the latest forecast.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by geoffreyip523
Why isn't the US officially in a recession? The US has technically entered a recession in the second quarter 2022 as the economy contracted 0.9% year over year, following a 1.6% decline in the first quarter. However, the official body that is tasked to make a call on whether the economy is in a recession has yet to declare that the US is in fact in an economic downturn. Slowdown in private and public spending In the April-June period, GDP shrank for the second straight quarter, which the US Department of Commerce attributed to the drag in private inventory and residential fixed investments, reduced federal government spending and a drop in non-residential fixed investment. General merchandise stores and motor vehicle dealers in the US eased their inventory build-up in the recent quarter, leading to the drop in private inventory investment, while the government’s move to cut down on its non-defense spending resulted in lower federal government spending. These factors offset the increase in exports and personal consumption spending in the second quarter. While the second consecutive drop in GDP reached the widely accepted definition of a recession, the US, according to a body that gets to say when the country is already in one, has yet to make a call. Who makes the call? The National Bureau of Economic Research, a nonprofit organization founded in 1920, serves as the “official” arbiter of whether the US, the world’s largest economy, is in a recession or not. The NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee consists of eight members who are among the country’s top economists working at leading academic institutions. The committee keeps track of the dates of peaks and troughs that frame economic recessions and expansions and its decision is based on a wider set of indicators including income, spending and employment. The NBER defines a recession as a period that involves a “significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.” Growth slowing While the US is not in an official recession, many analysts acknowledged that the country’s economic growth is slowing. Even US President Joe Biden said “it’s no surprise that the economy is slowing down” as the economy came off of last year’s historic growth, regaining all the private sector jobs lost during the COVID-10 pandemic. “But even as we face historic global challenges, we are on the right path and we will come through this transition stronger and more secure,” Biden said in a statement last week following the release of the quarterly GDP report. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell also remains optimistic on the economy, telling reporters in a recent press conference: “I do not think the US is currently in a recession and the reason is there are too many areas of the economy that are performing too well.” Strong jobs data “This is a very strong labor market ... it doesn’t make sense that the economy would be in a recession with this kind of thing happening,” Powell said. In June, non-farm payrolls rose by 372,000 month over month, topping the 250,000 market estimate, with the unemployment rate unchanged at 3.6%, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. “The strong 372,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in June appears to make a mockery of claims the economy is heading into, let alone already in, a recession,” Andrew Hunter, senior US economist at Capital Economics, was quoted by CNBC as saying. The strength in US consumption and employment are still providing support to the economy, but some analysts are warning that it is only a matter of time before the US succumbs to a recession as soaring inflation continues to dampen consumer appetite, while the volatility in financial markets linger due to uncertainties surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic, stagflation concerns and other factors. The International Monetary Fund last week lowered its outlook on the US economy, now expecting a 2.3% growth this year, down from its previous 3.7% expansion forecast, while it expects the world economy to rise 4.2%, slower than its anticipated 3.6% growth forecast.
ECONOMICS:USGDPQQ
by BlackBull_Markets
dow jones (us30) will %45 drop if...hello guys! us30 there is in a long term ascending channel for sure... but let look last recession closer: what was conditions of last recession : 1- break down last lower low 2- fake out last lower low 3- before starting a downward movement break ma(200) 4- last lower low break ma(200) too 5- after break down drop until %45 On the other hand, what are the current conditions: 1- last lower low break ma(200) 2- price is near of ma(200) so we are waiting for a break down of ma(200)... so, we get confirmation after ma(200) break down then we can get a lot of short position for indices and us shares: let's look at us interest rate and United States Inflation Rate charts again! i think everything is vivide in chart. what is your opinion about us30? If you agree with my analysis or you are happy, please hit the "like" button and "follow"!
VELOCITY:US30Short
by melikatrader94
11
$SPY Analysis, Key Levels & Targets$SPY Analysis, Key Levels & Targets For right now the 4hr timeframe is the one that makes the most sense to work on. (I say that but I published the 1day 😬) The 200MA on the 4hr is right where the price got caught today… which was perfect for me because I did an iron condor setup here which needs to be range bound… pretty risky but I woke up this morning just thinking it would be a slow day…. I don’t know why…. And it was slow… very flat… but with VIX elevated around 7% ALL DAY LONG…. What was that craziness… I’ll tell you what that craziness was… people loading up on puts…. That’s what vix measures…. The higher the VIX, the more puts being bought. It’s an easy formula… but that is a lesson for another day… Anyway, I did not get into my short position like I wanted to today… I should have, but I didn’t (and I’m a realtor as well and I was on the phone with clients all day… blah blah blah) So what I’m looking at on the put side is Sept 30th 434 puts… Right now they are @27.34 mid… if VIX dips into that gap it opened today the price would come down a bit but I’m thinking for now that’s as low as it might go…. Do you guys get anything out of my late night stream of consciousness ramblings?? I know I get a lot out of it when I come back to read it and see if I followed my own advice… sometimes I do, sometimes I don’t…. Anyway… that’s really it… absolutely nothing has changed since the last chart from this morning… LOL… If you guys see something that I've missed let me know... And happy trading tomorrow!!! 💃🏻 —- I am not your financial advisor. Watch my setups first before you jump in… My trade set ups work very well and they are for my personal reference and if you decide to trade them you do so at your own risk. I will gladly answer questions to the best of my knowledge but ultimately the risk is on you. I will update targets as needed. GL and happy trading. IF you need anything analyzed Technically just comment with the Ticker and I’ll do it as soon as possible…
AMEX:SPYShort
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
11
Meta analysis Long term.Meta is the big bet made by Facebook to corner the market on digital devices hardware currently causing problems for their other business models. The whole effort is a data wolf in sheep's clothing and precisely why they will compete long term with a decentralized metaverse from one of the big web 3 players the sandbox, decentraland, and the other side among possible other competitors in web 3. In short Facebook and its various platforms compete with digital content companies of various backgrounds for the 18-29-year-old audience. They do so with various products such as Video, Messenger, Whatsapp, Groups, Search, Workplace, marketplace, etc. These software services want to collect data to sell to advertisers to predict what an individual will want. This requires knowing more about a person than usually they know. The problem for Facebook (now Meta) is that they don't control the devices this data is generated on. Apple and Google do and they don't take kindly to a data leech on their business model. Since they control hardware decisions Meta is up a creek when decisions like IOS 14 allow you to turn off the data gathering. This is Metas' biggest problem and why oculus is so important. Snapchat challenged Facebook with filters and private messages and expiring messages capturing marketing dollars so facebook built a clone, stories, and Instagram. Tik Tok challenged Facebook on short video stories capturing marketing dollars so Facebook built a clone, reels. The bet is that metaverse interactions through either VR or AR will be the big new thing after short-form video as the primary method of interaction on the internet. Meta wants to not just be ahead of their next competitor and out of cloning and catching up territory but fully into controlling the hardware that is used to interact with such systems. Horizon is their metaverse world which one can access through either oculus or eventual AR equipment through their partnership with Luxottica. This is the pivot to Meta and much like other tech stocks, it has been hammered by the early stages of the current recession. Meta has big hoops to get through such as onboarding a population of users who need new hardware, and their future is rocky due to the past relationships with data from Facebook. The future will see Meta compete with the global decentralized blockchain web 3 metaverses for control of the digital twin infrastructure represented by NFTs controlled by self-sovereign identities or DAOs in a fully digital economy that directs resources of automated systems of production. The problem for Meta, in the opinion of this author, is they only seem aware of the interaction part of the business model for profit. They want data to sell to other companies. Meta doesn't seem to grasp the macro implications for the profit motive of production that a Metaverse enables. astoundingly, they're thinking too small. Centralized Corporations will be most challenged and supplanted by DAOs given enough time in a sufficiently decentralized metaverse. There is a possibility that a subset of DAOs enabled by quadratic voting can capture immensely profitable internet functions of the modern world. In time due to competition on price and thus profit margin, some DAOs will rise to multi-national levels. Some DAOs could become big enough and faceless enough to rend populations from their governments by challenging the interests of power. Government regulation of such DAOs will be difficult if neigh impossible, especially if profit margins of too big to fail entities are to be maintained. In such a world DAOs would hold the keys to data that participants in the DAO contribute. Some subset of such DAOs would for profit sell their data to advertisers in ways voted on by the DAO members. Precursors to this exist already such as Brave and their token BAT. Corporations destabilize government decision-making for their gain in a system designed as their sandbox. This author suspects DAOs as a disrupting force, are a possibility among the larger outcomes of various crypto ecosystems and their synergies in the long term. An exponential change in adoption of crypto more broadly could have that scenario happen sooner rather than later. But on the scale of decades, it's a distinct possibility. For Meta, the question is can you own anything in such a world and sell it to anyone else, including data, or are they just happy to make a profit for now before that transition occurs? Do they play whack-a-mole with crypto project models much like their other competitors Snap and TikTok? Whatever happens it'll be fun to watch zuck and his bucks while we make alien memes for the next few decades at least. All the best, see you on the moon.
NASDAQ:META
by GreatScottTheMoon
2
$SPX $SPY The Anatomy of a Recession - Study #2 S&P 2000 vs Now$SPX The Anatomy of a Recession - Study #2 So here is a second study. The one I posted earlier was of Today vs. 2007-2009, and this one is Today vs. 2000-2003 recession… Again… we may not be in a recession…. What do I know… But if we are and there’s more down to go… maybe this can help you build a strategy to get you through it in one piece. The 35EMA here is also a very strong resistance during the entire 3.16 year span of the 2000 recession. Again, it’s support in the good times, resistance in the bad. It’s one of the many reasons this is my main EMA. Right now (the bottom chart) we are right at the 35EMA (just below it I should say) It is my personal bias that we do see more downside. And you better believe that the 35EMA on the weekly is going to be my cue when this is all over. In both recessions the drawdown was between 50-55% from top to bottom in the S&P (It was more in nasdaq) In both recession the 35EMA on the weekly was a consistent resistance throughout the entirely of the recession. Once the 35EMA became support again the bottom was in… and that is what I will be looking for in the case as well... I would also like to add that All time highs from 2000 returned in 2007----> just in time for the next recession LOL 🤣 There you have it... —- I am not your financial advisor. Watch my setups first before you jump in… My trade set ups work very well and they are for my personal reference and if you decide to trade them you do so at your own risk. I will gladly answer questions to the best of my knowledge but ultimately the risk is on you. I will update targets as needed. GL and happy trading. IF you need anything analyzed Technically just comment with the Ticker and I’ll do it as soon as possible…
SP:SPXShort
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
6
Sell high pressure/Recession fearsAs we all know about everyone is talking about the recession. Looking forward NAS&US30 forward a big drop of a crash.. the economy is slowing down and recession still hold above 40 year all time high. Which means we are already and had been in the recession. Biden and the White House declined twice and economic isn’t going well. Monkeypox global emergency declared as well and spread all over the globe faster rapidly. Nas should be heading down 10K
FX:NAS100Short
by JoyBoyVegae
7
$SPX $SPY $ES1! The Anatomy of a Recession - An S&P Study$SPX The Anatomy of a Recession - Study I’m not a doomer. This is for reference only... Let’s just get that out of the way… LOL!!! But I like to be aware. I’m also aware that this time could be very different. And it could have maybe just a few similarities when this is all done… Either way it will be interesting to see what happens and don’t make any crazy decisions based on this. I have other scenario’s in which we trade sideways for a few years, with tons of intraday opportunities in each day… The market does not need to follow this pattern… but it could!! One huge thing that I noticed is that the 35EMA on the weekly was the resistance the entire time.(And you could use a 50MA here too) And if you look on the bottom panel, we’re right there…. Support in the good times, resistance in the bad times… It’s a very handy MA…. That’s all I’m going to write today because everything else is above in the chart!! What do you guys think? More red to come? Or new highs coming?? LOL…. Or lots of choppy choppy consolidation?? My personal bias is that we see more down... but I'm very flexible and will adapt if that is not the case... and I trade both ways always... always always always... 💃🏻 —- I am not your financial advisor. Watch my setups first before you jump in… My trade set ups work very well and they are for my personal reference and if you decide to trade them you do so at your own risk. I will gladly answer questions to the best of my knowledge but ultimately the risk is on you. I will update targets as needed. GL and happy trading. IF you need anything analyzed Technically just comment with the Ticker and I’ll do it as soon as possible…
SP:SPXShort
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
17
THE VALUE AREA ON BTCUSDT / BE CAREFULL HELLO GUYS for long-term investors, I highly advise you to be very careful the markets are still very bullish although The Federal Reserve said the US is in a technical recession , which means there is manipulation so be careful and don't let your emotions have an impact on your decisions and keep in mind to pay a huge attention to economic indicators, sentiment analysis and fundamentals personally, I would buy only in the value area in the chart don't take this as financial advice, do your own research
Short
by Raees_
Double whammy of demand contraction and political leverageSummary The semiconductor sector is expected to enter a difficult period with demand contraction due to recession and crypto winter. As the US government is increasing the effort to use semiconductors as a leverage to put pressure on China, companies in the sector might be forced to prioritize the national political agenda against profit and growth , which further amplifies the negative impact from slowing demand. Demand contraction The US economy officially entered a technical recession as the GDP figure announced this week unexpectedly shrank again by 0.9% , making a 2 quarters consecutive decline. Large employers such as Amazon are also announcing their layoff plan to better weather the worsening economic outlook. Companies downsizing will reduce the demand for office electronics such as laptops and work phones. Although the commonly reported U3 unemployment rate remains stable at 3.6%, the U6 unemployment rate has actually increased for 2 consecutive months from 6.6% to 7% . With states continuing to pair back the covid unemployment benefit, more people are forced to re-enter the job market which in some cases the pay are not even as good as the unemployment benefit they have been receiving. The reducing disposable income of the US consumers is likely to negatively impact the demand for goods, especially for the non-essential durable consumer product such as electronics. High food and energy prices also contribute to such change in spending allocation. Political leverage Semiconductor chips are one of the most critical building blocks for most electronic products. The new product trend such as electric vehicles further push up the demand for chips. To put it into perspective, a Ford Focus uses roughly 300 semiconductor chips, whereas the electric Mach-e utilizes almost 3,000 semiconductor chips. The US government has been using national security reasons to block companies from selling gears for fabricating advanced chips (<10nm) to China since the Trump era. This week, the Biden administration has notified equipment suppliers such as NASDAQ:KLAC and NASDAQ:LRCX that the restriction is further tightened to <14nm , and it will also cover fabrication plants run by non-Chinese companies such as NYSE:TSM in China. Semiconductors will continue serve as a tool to slow Chinese growth at the cost of industry profitability. Earlier this week the US Congress had passed the chips act and approved $52 billion in funding for domestic semiconductor manufacturing. While there is definitely a strategic necessity to rebuild the US fabrication ability given the political tension between China and Taiwan , the difficulty to establish a fabrication facility should not be underestimated, if you look at how hard even for Samsung to catch up TSM on defect rate especially for the <7nm advanced chips. For most semiconductor companies it is not just about the funding but also if there is a profitable way out for domestic production, or it is going to be a capital blackhole that keeps sucking investment without meaningful outcome. Technical discussion The US equity market is currently rebounding as rate expectation cooled off due to increasing risk of recession. S&P500 and Nasdaq100 have already broken through the 50 days moving average and are now challenging the Jun rebound peak. The 20 days moving average is also catching up and is about to sit on top of the 50 days moving average. In fact, the sustainability of this rebound will depend on how long can the 20 days stay above the 50 days moving average, as (1) upward pointing 20 days and 50 days moving average, with (2) 20 days higher than the 50 days moving average are the basic forms of a bull market. S&P500 NASDAQ100 In this regard, by comparing SOXX and QQQ, one can visualize the sector discount due to the double whammy discussed above. Although SOXX has also broken through the 50 days moving average, the 20 days moving average is still further away from the 50 days moving average , which makes it a better short candidate compared to QQQ for those who believe the recent uptrend is a bear rebound but not the beginning of a bull. Here are the levels SOXX trader should pay attention to: Downside Resistance 370 - 385: 20 days and 50 days moving average levels 326.7: Jul-05 52 weeks low 270-280: Post-covid bull breakout level in 2020-Jun Upside Resistance 433.99: Jun-02 rebound peak 455-465: 250 days moving average level 501.09: Mar-29 rebound peak While our view toward the semiconductor sector remains bearish, shorting too early in a rebound can be very costly to traders. It is recommended to scale in the position either when SOXX itself, or at least until the border markets show sign of momentum decline (e.g. reverse hammer candlestick pattern) Note: For traders who wish to trade leveraged ETF such as AMEX:SOXL (3x bullish) or AMEX:SOXS (3x bearish), it is still recommended to use the non leverage version SOXX for technical analysis purposes. As the daily 3x process sometimes will shift the resistance level and make the reading less accurate.
NASDAQ:SOXXShort
by geoffreyip523
📌 How long Will this AltParty last? (crypto & Altcoins)🥂🚀 What is the reason behind the recent growth of crypto market❓❔ The rise of cryptocurrencies following market optimism to reduce/stabilize the trend of increasing interest rates without the risk of recession❓❔❕❗ ✅ BITCOIN has reached above $24 k and Ethereum above $1700 , and the markets are still welcoming the possibility of the arrival of the last steps of the US central bank to suppress inflation, as well as optimistic data indicating a slowing down of the economy (without the risk of entering a recession). Although, in reality, the drop in the GDP of the United States in this quota was more than expected; The gross domestic product was not positive this time either, and recording the second consecutive negative number (although small) for this index, at least from a technical point of view, means that the world's largest economy has now entered a "recession". ✅ It seems that the market's interpretation of this economic contraction was something else; The market now believes that in the face of this bump in the path of economic growth, the Federal Reserve will actually put the brakes on its interest rate hike at its next meeting in September. In fact, the market has already celebrated this auspicious event, and after that, the risk-free indicators of the market all started to rise. From the S&P 500 index to the Nasdaq and the Dow Jones, they all began to rise, and of course, as expected, whenever there is talk of risk-taking, cryptocurrencies have been and are at the forefront of jump and sharp movements. ✅ In fact, although we have entered a "technical recession", many economists - and even Jerome Powell (Federal Reserve Chairman) and Janet Yellen (US Treasury Secretary) have so far refused to use the word recession because other factors For example, the "labor market situation" is considered as a sign of a "strong economy". ✅If we look closely, the optimism came when on Wednesday, investors reacted positively to a 75 basis point increase in the base rate by the US Federal Reserve and Powell's "dovish" signals that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates in the next few months. . The next day, that is, Thursday, following the announcement of the second negative GDP data in a row, Yellen stated that the definition of an economic recession is actually "a broad weakening of the factors of the economy" and "this is not what we are currently witnessing". And of course, it is believed that Yellen was referring to the National Bureau of Economic Research's (NBER) definition of the term recession, which, in addition to GDP, also includes indicators such as employment, personal income, and industrial production in the definition of this term. 👉 It didn't take long that the wave of optimism caused by this misinterpretation quickly spread from the stock market to the crypto market, and in the middle of the rise of cryptocurrencies, even the negative news related to the bankruptcy filing by the Zipmex exchange in Singapore was lost. Voyager Digital, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in a U.S. court earlier this month, also faced an executive order to stop spreading falsehoods about government support. But even this bad news could not stop the crypto party.👌💯 📛 But The question is ;how long does this celebration last? 🤔 We know that the economy is now walking on the edge of inflation-recession. All the tools that the Federal Reserve has are to control the demand side; So the Fed cannot control the inflation caused by the crisis in Ukraine, this institution does not even have control over the inflation caused by the supply chain problems, and this is what we think will cause the world economy to slide into recession sooner or later, and may all this celebration will not be stable (from stocks to crypto). This article is for informational purposes only. It should not be considered Financial or Legal Advice.
SP:SPX
by PRO_SMART_Trader
10
ETH's "Merge" Coming Sep 19th - The Good, The Bad, The UglySo if you've been paying attention to crypto stuff for a while, you probably heard that Ethereum's big "merge" is coming on Sep 19th. They've been talking about it for a while but there's now at least a definite date. (And they're pretty good at making deadlines once they commit to a date, to be fair.) The switch from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake should be an improvement to most things for the most part, but there's a few things people should know: - The coin is set to become a deflationary asset, out-scarcity-tizing (is that a word?) the coin it's trying to beat, Bitcoin. This should, in theory, be good for current ETH/ETH2 holders but even according to the team this is something that'll happen over time, not right away. (I think this argument is a strategic one, personally - more explanations later.) - The merge won't solve ETH's scaling problems - the "sharding" improvements are planned to come later, the earliest mid-2023. The idea was for ETH to "burn" its existing supply in order to keep gas fees down but we don't know if this is going to work in practice. - The merge will effectively put all ETH miners out of a job, and many of them will forced to move over into other chains since mining will no longer be profitable on ETH2 as the "difficulty bomb" sets in. If you've noticed ETC going up a lot recently, keep in mind that that project has already been hacked 3+ times at the protocol level and can't be considered legitimate. (The fact that it somehow stays alive is still bizarre to me tbh.) I've been with ETH since 2014 so I've seen a lot of changes happen within the ecosystem over the years - but the community has definitely changed a lot since the NFT craze of last year - with more money comes more attention, and with that, more noise as well. Since there's not much happening on the chain these days most talks online has become more about beating Bitcoin rather than about product/technical achievements. Mid-term, I think ETH will do well financially since that seems to be its primary focus right now. All those big names that got in earlier this year probably are gonna do whatever it takes to make that happen. It's the development and cultural sides long-term that has me concerned since I feel like the more the BTC and ETH folks argue with each other they more they start to sound alike. I made a big leap from ETH to Tezos this year, after doing a lot of research on my end. Folks probably remember me shilling for Ethereum for a long time so the decision wasn't easy, but I felt it was necessary, at least for the things I'm interested in. - Tezos has been proof-of-stake since the very beginning of its launch and it has had time to refine its processes. Technologically, the Tezos stacks is far superior right now and ETH is going to have trouble keeping up, imo.) - The high gas fees basically made a lot of apps built on top of ETH useless and many devs/artists have already fled the scene. I'm skeptical if they're going to come back, even if they manage to fix the issues on the back end. Loss of trust doesn't come back easy. XTZ saw a big leap in chain activity last month while most other chains were still on the decline. - I think that the decision to not give ETH2 stakers a definite date of when they can withdraw their funds (probably the most annoying thing about the project right now especially since you literally can't do anything with ETH2 tokens atm) is probably unhealthy. This holding pattern allows for the project to manipulate economic outcomes artificially (acting as a quasi-government) at the cost of market legibility - which could make the asset more unpredictable long-term. - ETH still doesn't have on-chain governance and as far as I'm aware, has no plans to. You're basically trusting that the projects on top of it are doing things in good faith. Tezos, on the other hand, has voting and governance mechanisms baked in. (This is probably the biggest divergence between the two projects right now, imo.) - With Tezos I can get reliable staking rewards without having to have it locked up for an indefinite period of time, which seems like a much more reasonable deal to me, honestly. And I can actually use the coins for buying things I got caught up in things too, trust me - but as the world heads into a global recession (possibly a depression), everyone's probably going to have to tighten up what and where their money is going. The most obvious thing right now is interest rates - which proof-of-stake coins are well-positioned to take advantage of since the banks are still dragging their feet in regards to what it's offering to people in savings. Bitcoin is probably screwed, ETH is a (?), Tezos and other high-quality chains will probably do well. That's my hunch, anyway. I don't expect everyone to agree, but this is what my gut is telling me right now.
Long
by RyanTanaka