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Recession

$SPX $SPY $ES1! The Anatomy of a Recession - An S&P Study$SPX The Anatomy of a Recession - Study I’m not a doomer. This is for reference only... Let’s just get that out of the way… LOL!!! But I like to be aware. I’m also aware that this time could be very different. And it could have maybe just a few similarities when this is all done… Either way it will be interesting to see what happens and don’t make any crazy decisions based on this. I have other scenario’s in which we trade sideways for a few years, with tons of intraday opportunities in each day… The market does not need to follow this pattern… but it could!! One huge thing that I noticed is that the 35EMA on the weekly was the resistance the entire time.(And you could use a 50MA here too) And if you look on the bottom panel, we’re right there…. Support in the good times, resistance in the bad times… It’s a very handy MA…. That’s all I’m going to write today because everything else is above in the chart!! What do you guys think? More red to come? Or new highs coming?? LOL…. Or lots of choppy choppy consolidation?? My personal bias is that we see more down... but I'm very flexible and will adapt if that is not the case... and I trade both ways always... always always always... 💃🏻 —- I am not your financial advisor. Watch my setups first before you jump in… My trade set ups work very well and they are for my personal reference and if you decide to trade them you do so at your own risk. I will gladly answer questions to the best of my knowledge but ultimately the risk is on you. I will update targets as needed. GL and happy trading. IF you need anything analyzed Technically just comment with the Ticker and I’ll do it as soon as possible…
SP:SPXShort
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
17
THE VALUE AREA ON BTCUSDT / BE CAREFULL HELLO GUYS for long-term investors, I highly advise you to be very careful the markets are still very bullish although The Federal Reserve said the US is in a technical recession , which means there is manipulation so be careful and don't let your emotions have an impact on your decisions and keep in mind to pay a huge attention to economic indicators, sentiment analysis and fundamentals personally, I would buy only in the value area in the chart don't take this as financial advice, do your own research
Short
by Raees_
Double whammy of demand contraction and political leverageSummary The semiconductor sector is expected to enter a difficult period with demand contraction due to recession and crypto winter. As the US government is increasing the effort to use semiconductors as a leverage to put pressure on China, companies in the sector might be forced to prioritize the national political agenda against profit and growth , which further amplifies the negative impact from slowing demand. Demand contraction The US economy officially entered a technical recession as the GDP figure announced this week unexpectedly shrank again by 0.9% , making a 2 quarters consecutive decline. Large employers such as Amazon are also announcing their layoff plan to better weather the worsening economic outlook. Companies downsizing will reduce the demand for office electronics such as laptops and work phones. Although the commonly reported U3 unemployment rate remains stable at 3.6%, the U6 unemployment rate has actually increased for 2 consecutive months from 6.6% to 7% . With states continuing to pair back the covid unemployment benefit, more people are forced to re-enter the job market which in some cases the pay are not even as good as the unemployment benefit they have been receiving. The reducing disposable income of the US consumers is likely to negatively impact the demand for goods, especially for the non-essential durable consumer product such as electronics. High food and energy prices also contribute to such change in spending allocation. Political leverage Semiconductor chips are one of the most critical building blocks for most electronic products. The new product trend such as electric vehicles further push up the demand for chips. To put it into perspective, a Ford Focus uses roughly 300 semiconductor chips, whereas the electric Mach-e utilizes almost 3,000 semiconductor chips. The US government has been using national security reasons to block companies from selling gears for fabricating advanced chips (<10nm) to China since the Trump era. This week, the Biden administration has notified equipment suppliers such as NASDAQ:KLAC and NASDAQ:LRCX that the restriction is further tightened to <14nm , and it will also cover fabrication plants run by non-Chinese companies such as NYSE:TSM in China. Semiconductors will continue serve as a tool to slow Chinese growth at the cost of industry profitability. Earlier this week the US Congress had passed the chips act and approved $52 billion in funding for domestic semiconductor manufacturing. While there is definitely a strategic necessity to rebuild the US fabrication ability given the political tension between China and Taiwan , the difficulty to establish a fabrication facility should not be underestimated, if you look at how hard even for Samsung to catch up TSM on defect rate especially for the <7nm advanced chips. For most semiconductor companies it is not just about the funding but also if there is a profitable way out for domestic production, or it is going to be a capital blackhole that keeps sucking investment without meaningful outcome. Technical discussion The US equity market is currently rebounding as rate expectation cooled off due to increasing risk of recession. S&P500 and Nasdaq100 have already broken through the 50 days moving average and are now challenging the Jun rebound peak. The 20 days moving average is also catching up and is about to sit on top of the 50 days moving average. In fact, the sustainability of this rebound will depend on how long can the 20 days stay above the 50 days moving average, as (1) upward pointing 20 days and 50 days moving average, with (2) 20 days higher than the 50 days moving average are the basic forms of a bull market. S&P500 NASDAQ100 In this regard, by comparing SOXX and QQQ, one can visualize the sector discount due to the double whammy discussed above. Although SOXX has also broken through the 50 days moving average, the 20 days moving average is still further away from the 50 days moving average , which makes it a better short candidate compared to QQQ for those who believe the recent uptrend is a bear rebound but not the beginning of a bull. Here are the levels SOXX trader should pay attention to: Downside Resistance 370 - 385: 20 days and 50 days moving average levels 326.7: Jul-05 52 weeks low 270-280: Post-covid bull breakout level in 2020-Jun Upside Resistance 433.99: Jun-02 rebound peak 455-465: 250 days moving average level 501.09: Mar-29 rebound peak While our view toward the semiconductor sector remains bearish, shorting too early in a rebound can be very costly to traders. It is recommended to scale in the position either when SOXX itself, or at least until the border markets show sign of momentum decline (e.g. reverse hammer candlestick pattern) Note: For traders who wish to trade leveraged ETF such as AMEX:SOXL (3x bullish) or AMEX:SOXS (3x bearish), it is still recommended to use the non leverage version SOXX for technical analysis purposes. As the daily 3x process sometimes will shift the resistance level and make the reading less accurate.
NASDAQ:SOXXShort
by geoffreyip523
📌 How long Will this AltParty last? (crypto & Altcoins)🥂🚀 What is the reason behind the recent growth of crypto market❓❔ The rise of cryptocurrencies following market optimism to reduce/stabilize the trend of increasing interest rates without the risk of recession❓❔❕❗ ✅ BITCOIN has reached above $24 k and Ethereum above $1700 , and the markets are still welcoming the possibility of the arrival of the last steps of the US central bank to suppress inflation, as well as optimistic data indicating a slowing down of the economy (without the risk of entering a recession). Although, in reality, the drop in the GDP of the United States in this quota was more than expected; The gross domestic product was not positive this time either, and recording the second consecutive negative number (although small) for this index, at least from a technical point of view, means that the world's largest economy has now entered a "recession". ✅ It seems that the market's interpretation of this economic contraction was something else; The market now believes that in the face of this bump in the path of economic growth, the Federal Reserve will actually put the brakes on its interest rate hike at its next meeting in September. In fact, the market has already celebrated this auspicious event, and after that, the risk-free indicators of the market all started to rise. From the S&P 500 index to the Nasdaq and the Dow Jones, they all began to rise, and of course, as expected, whenever there is talk of risk-taking, cryptocurrencies have been and are at the forefront of jump and sharp movements. ✅ In fact, although we have entered a "technical recession", many economists - and even Jerome Powell (Federal Reserve Chairman) and Janet Yellen (US Treasury Secretary) have so far refused to use the word recession because other factors For example, the "labor market situation" is considered as a sign of a "strong economy". ✅If we look closely, the optimism came when on Wednesday, investors reacted positively to a 75 basis point increase in the base rate by the US Federal Reserve and Powell's "dovish" signals that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates in the next few months. . The next day, that is, Thursday, following the announcement of the second negative GDP data in a row, Yellen stated that the definition of an economic recession is actually "a broad weakening of the factors of the economy" and "this is not what we are currently witnessing". And of course, it is believed that Yellen was referring to the National Bureau of Economic Research's (NBER) definition of the term recession, which, in addition to GDP, also includes indicators such as employment, personal income, and industrial production in the definition of this term. 👉 It didn't take long that the wave of optimism caused by this misinterpretation quickly spread from the stock market to the crypto market, and in the middle of the rise of cryptocurrencies, even the negative news related to the bankruptcy filing by the Zipmex exchange in Singapore was lost. Voyager Digital, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in a U.S. court earlier this month, also faced an executive order to stop spreading falsehoods about government support. But even this bad news could not stop the crypto party.👌💯 📛 But The question is ;how long does this celebration last? 🤔 We know that the economy is now walking on the edge of inflation-recession. All the tools that the Federal Reserve has are to control the demand side; So the Fed cannot control the inflation caused by the crisis in Ukraine, this institution does not even have control over the inflation caused by the supply chain problems, and this is what we think will cause the world economy to slide into recession sooner or later, and may all this celebration will not be stable (from stocks to crypto). This article is for informational purposes only. It should not be considered Financial or Legal Advice.
SP:SPX
by PRO_SMART_Trader
10
ETH's "Merge" Coming Sep 19th - The Good, The Bad, The UglySo if you've been paying attention to crypto stuff for a while, you probably heard that Ethereum's big "merge" is coming on Sep 19th. They've been talking about it for a while but there's now at least a definite date. (And they're pretty good at making deadlines once they commit to a date, to be fair.) The switch from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake should be an improvement to most things for the most part, but there's a few things people should know: - The coin is set to become a deflationary asset, out-scarcity-tizing (is that a word?) the coin it's trying to beat, Bitcoin. This should, in theory, be good for current ETH/ETH2 holders but even according to the team this is something that'll happen over time, not right away. (I think this argument is a strategic one, personally - more explanations later.) - The merge won't solve ETH's scaling problems - the "sharding" improvements are planned to come later, the earliest mid-2023. The idea was for ETH to "burn" its existing supply in order to keep gas fees down but we don't know if this is going to work in practice. - The merge will effectively put all ETH miners out of a job, and many of them will forced to move over into other chains since mining will no longer be profitable on ETH2 as the "difficulty bomb" sets in. If you've noticed ETC going up a lot recently, keep in mind that that project has already been hacked 3+ times at the protocol level and can't be considered legitimate. (The fact that it somehow stays alive is still bizarre to me tbh.) I've been with ETH since 2014 so I've seen a lot of changes happen within the ecosystem over the years - but the community has definitely changed a lot since the NFT craze of last year - with more money comes more attention, and with that, more noise as well. Since there's not much happening on the chain these days most talks online has become more about beating Bitcoin rather than about product/technical achievements. Mid-term, I think ETH will do well financially since that seems to be its primary focus right now. All those big names that got in earlier this year probably are gonna do whatever it takes to make that happen. It's the development and cultural sides long-term that has me concerned since I feel like the more the BTC and ETH folks argue with each other they more they start to sound alike. I made a big leap from ETH to Tezos this year, after doing a lot of research on my end. Folks probably remember me shilling for Ethereum for a long time so the decision wasn't easy, but I felt it was necessary, at least for the things I'm interested in. - Tezos has been proof-of-stake since the very beginning of its launch and it has had time to refine its processes. Technologically, the Tezos stacks is far superior right now and ETH is going to have trouble keeping up, imo.) - The high gas fees basically made a lot of apps built on top of ETH useless and many devs/artists have already fled the scene. I'm skeptical if they're going to come back, even if they manage to fix the issues on the back end. Loss of trust doesn't come back easy. XTZ saw a big leap in chain activity last month while most other chains were still on the decline. - I think that the decision to not give ETH2 stakers a definite date of when they can withdraw their funds (probably the most annoying thing about the project right now especially since you literally can't do anything with ETH2 tokens atm) is probably unhealthy. This holding pattern allows for the project to manipulate economic outcomes artificially (acting as a quasi-government) at the cost of market legibility - which could make the asset more unpredictable long-term. - ETH still doesn't have on-chain governance and as far as I'm aware, has no plans to. You're basically trusting that the projects on top of it are doing things in good faith. Tezos, on the other hand, has voting and governance mechanisms baked in. (This is probably the biggest divergence between the two projects right now, imo.) - With Tezos I can get reliable staking rewards without having to have it locked up for an indefinite period of time, which seems like a much more reasonable deal to me, honestly. And I can actually use the coins for buying things I got caught up in things too, trust me - but as the world heads into a global recession (possibly a depression), everyone's probably going to have to tighten up what and where their money is going. The most obvious thing right now is interest rates - which proof-of-stake coins are well-positioned to take advantage of since the banks are still dragging their feet in regards to what it's offering to people in savings. Bitcoin is probably screwed, ETH is a (?), Tezos and other high-quality chains will probably do well. That's my hunch, anyway. I don't expect everyone to agree, but this is what my gut is telling me right now.
Long
by RyanTanaka
ETH's "Merge" Coming Sep 19th - The Good, The Bad, The UglySo if you've been paying attention to crypto stuff for a while, you probably heard that Ethereum's big "merge" is coming on Sep 19th. They've been talking about it for a while but there's now at least a definite date. (And they're pretty good at making deadlines once they commit to a date, to be fair.) The switch from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake should be an improvement to most things for the most part, but there's a few things people should know: - The coin is set to become a deflationary asset, out-scarcity-tizing (is that a word?) the coin it's trying to beat, Bitcoin. This should, in theory, be good for current ETH/ETH2 holders but even according to the team this is something that'll happen over time, not right away. (I think this argument is a strategic one, personally - more explanations later.) - The merge won't solve ETH's scaling problems - the "sharding" improvements are planned to come later, the earliest mid-2023. The idea was for ETH to "burn" its existing supply in order to keep gas fees down but we don't know if this is going to work in practice. - The merge will effectively put all ETH miners out of a job, and many of them will forced to move over into other chains since mining will no longer be profitable on ETH2 as the "difficulty bomb" sets in. If you've noticed ETC going up a lot recently, keep in mind that that project has already been hacked 3+ times at the protocol level and can't be considered legitimate. (The fact that it somehow stays alive is still bizarre to me tbh.) I've been with ETH since 2014 so I've seen a lot of changes happen within the ecosystem over the years - but the community has definitely changed a lot since the NFT craze of last year - with more money comes more attention, and with that, more noise as well. Since there's not much happening on the chain these days most talks online has become more about beating Bitcoin rather than about product/technical achievements. Mid-term, I think ETH will do well financially since that seems to be its primary focus right now. All those big names that got in earlier this year probably are gonna do whatever it takes to make that happen. It's the development and cultural sides long-term that has me concerned since I feel like the more the BTC and ETH folks argue with each other they more they start to sound alike. I made a big leap from ETH to Tezos this year, after doing a lot of research on my end. Folks probably remember me shilling for Ethereum for a long time so the decision wasn't easy, but I felt it was necessary, at least for the things I'm interested in. - Tezos has been proof-of-stake since the very beginning of its launch and it has had time to refine its processes. Technologically, the Tezos stacks is far superior right now and ETH is going to have trouble keeping up, imo.) - The high gas fees basically made a lot of apps built on top of ETH useless and many devs/artists have already fled the scene. I'm skeptical if they're going to come back, even if they manage to fix the issues on the back end. Loss of trust doesn't come back easy. XTZ saw a big leap in chain activity last month while most other chains were still on the decline. - I think that the decision to not give ETH2 stakers a definite date of when they can withdraw their funds (probably the most annoying thing about the project right now especially since you literally can't do anything with ETH2 tokens atm) is probably unhealthy. This holding pattern allows for the project to manipulate economic outcomes artificially (acting as a quasi-government) at the cost of market legibility - which could make the asset more unpredictable long-term. - ETH still doesn't have on-chain governance and as far as I'm aware, has no plans to. You're basically trusting that the projects on top of it are doing things in good faith. Tezos, on the other hand, has voting and governance mechanisms baked in. (This is probably the biggest divergence between the two projects right now, imo.) - With Tezos I can get reliable staking rewards without having to have it locked up for an indefinite period of time, which seems like a much more reasonable deal to me, honestly. And I can actually use the coins for buying things I got caught up in things too, trust me - but as the world heads into a global recession (possibly a depression), everyone's probably going to have to tighten up what and where their money is going. The most obvious thing right now is interest rates - which proof-of-stake coins are well-positioned to take advantage of since the banks are still dragging their feet in regards to what it's offering to people in savings. Bitcoin is probably screwed, ETH is a (?), Tezos and other high-quality chains will probably do well. That's my hunch, anyway. I don't expect everyone to agree, but this is what my gut is telling me right now.
Long
by RyanTanaka
not full blown recession... yetWatching the 3 mo and 2 year very closely. I think this is an indicator for a recession and not the 2 and 10's because it shows more that the short term risk is outweighing anything mid term. Everything is is wishy washy with definitions now a days lol but this is going to be the icing on the cake for confirmations. Looking at the dollar strength we had a little pullback buts its ready to resume higher putting more weakness on emerging markets and currencies and also US equities. Looking at UVXY and the VIX i think that the 20 range for the vix is a newer normal in this market environment though UVXY is going really low now and almost oversold on the daily compared to where we are at in this little "recovery" thats been taking place. a lot to digest in the macro perspective and we'll see what the terminal rate will end up being for the FED. exciting times. That's all folks.
TVC:US03MYLong
by moonman777
What the Recession and FOMC Mean for StocksStocks have broken out as we identified yesterday. The fact that stocks and bonds have both caught a bid gives us insight as to how the markets are interpreting the FOMC rate hike and the GDP numbers yesterday. As we all know, GDP numbers came in negative, the second negative reading, which puts us formally in a recession by definition. Furthermore, the Fed only raised rates by 75bps (some sources were predicting 100bps). This suggests that they will likely pivot to a more dovish stance, and be forced to lower rates, or take a more accommodating stance to fight the recession, meaning that stocks are clear to rally. There is still a lot of open interest with puts in the 4000's, but when cash heavy investors start to unwind we could easily punch through. The S&P 500 broke out, clearing 4009 with ease, and hitting 4068, our next target. We broke through that and are making a run for 4122, hovering just below that. If we see more momentum come through then we will likely test 4178 or 4188, we will likely face resistance there, but will have reestablished the value area between 4068 and 4188 from June. If we retrace, watch for support at 4009, a relative high and technical level.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Continuation of Bear Market Rally Summer 2022Hello Hello! So far so good from my previous bear market rally chart. Everything seems to be held in place as the market continues to climb upwards with regard to recession and the recent 75 bps rate hike and on top of it all very controversial earning reports. Shorts and retail continue to be punished for their bear case as the market continues to climb upwards breaking above the 400 level and more. Let's continue this rally till September SPY 440 is my goal end of September, see you then!
AMEX:SPYLong
by TryHarder14
BTC/USDHi all, Is is the bottom in? Most probable yes, at least for a bear market run. Almost 40% up since the bottom. If macro economy doesn't improve and we are going to stagflation as FED is playing with interest rates, BTC and Stock market will not perform so well. If BTC will break down again then will be a major alarm signal that it will be harder and harder to fully recover. Until the halving in 2024 we have planty of time but it will be a harder bear market especially because is first recession for BTC. I believe the technology behind is unique and the value of BTC will perform very well 5-10 years from now for sure. DCA constantly and with a proper risk management. A lot of patience and the portofolio will perform a lot in the following years. Buy the fear sell the greed. What do you think about BTC price?
INDEX:BTCUSD
by cryptoforevery1
SPX 500 2008 AND 2022 🤔📉History does not repeat itself, but it rhymes. Over time we have seen how there are economic recessions every 8 years to 15 years. The US reported 2 negative quarters which is already a technical recession but the FED tries to hide it with yesterday's news (July 27, 2022), there are still key dates to potentially short almost everything including BTC, CRYPTOCURRENCIES, STOCKS and INDICES. The key dates to keep an eye on the market are: 1. August 5 (NFP) - August 10 (Annual Inflation). 2. September 1 (Non-agricultural employment change). 3. September 21 (FED Open Market Committee Economic Projections). The economic downturn is here, so Meta must do more with less - Mark Zuckerberg (Wednesday, July 27 in the "Meta Platforms" erning report)
SP:SPX
by Ed_Ale
2