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Recession

SPX earnings recession, growth slow down.The fed hiked rates today by 0.75%. They have also moved to meeting by meeting data dependency. Since they've done both in one meeting there is the possibility that if inflation continues higher for a few months they will be unable or unwilling to cut rates to save the economy from the earrings recession likely on the way. In short the supply side situation is still not resolved leading to over supply of certain goods and under supply of others. Oversupply of goods in typical capital overproduction is what breaks the system due to over competition and thus lower prices. utility theory of value applies until extreme highs/lows of supply and demand shows the underlying labor relations. This imbalance will lead to a slow down in growth and thus an earning recession. Q3 & Q4 are thus likely a prolonged period of reduced demand coupled with oversupply. Such conditions will allow the FED to pivot, reduce rates and step up asset purchases late in Q4 or early Q1 as they will be reluctant to cut rates and "save" the economy from low growth while jobs numbers are high and inflation stabilizes in Q3 and Q4 even if that's what is needed it would be politically dangerous until after the election. If you're a bull you want the jobs numbers to decline quickly in a sharp recession allowing the FED to pivot sooner. If you're a bear you want inflation numbers to be sustained and plateau while jobs numbers slowly come down. I for one am bearish on the current overall trend and that is unfortunate since it means real pain ahead for actual people not just numbers on a screen. Always remember that little nugget is conditional to you making money anthropomorphic reader I am creating on the fly. Probably shouting into the ether on this one...which reminds me of a good long trade actually given the merge...hmm.
SP:SPXShort
by GreatScottTheMoon
2
Suncor - Pain to Pleasure and Pleasure to PainThe truth is that the energy sector has been doing really well. WTI Crude appeared to can't stop won't stop, and then Natural Gas appeared to can't stop won't stop. Now, both NG1 and WTI are going to dump as the Federal Reserve points a nuclear bomb at the so-called "inflation," which in reality are high commodities and high stock prices. Shortly it will appear that the Party is over for commodities and stocks, and this will provide a great deal of pain for people who have bought this pullback from $53, not realizing that the knife has yet to cut sufficiently deep. However, natural gas and oil are something that the world cannot do without, for mankind is paralyzed without electricity, and no matter how much of a leftist you want to be and how much of the ESG Kool Aid you've drank, the cold truth is that without coal and natural gas you won't have electricity for your computers, and without oil, you won't have a shipping and transportation network. A fundamental lack of either electricity or transport would threaten the ruling North American Communist Party's stability, and so they will be maintained, but the prices will drive ordinary people out of the market, and you will see social credit and digital identification-based fuel rationing during this time period, if all goes well for the Communist Party. (It won't.) In the process, WTI will set a new high, probably painfully higher than people expect, and in a faster time frame that people expect, but also coming up short of moonboy expectations. I would say that this $350/b as some have predicted is nonsense. I think the number is $180, and then demand destruction will be savagely en route. For Natural Gas, I believe that Henry Hub futures are going to heatseek $18 after a solid clean out, and then the game will quickly wrap itself up. Look on the upside: at least you haven't been paying $40 like Europe and Australia already has for months. All of this means that when everything is scary and prices have been driven deep enough to give you the chance to sell low after buying high, energy stocks will begin a real pump. This pump will serve as a bear trap and will be pretty amusing. Your best bet on Suncor is in the $27 mark with a target above the double top around $62. Frankly, I would say you could see a new all time high over $80, but drawing this on this chart is too hard. Either way with a $27 entry and a $62 target with a stop below $21, you're getting an RR of almost 5. An entry of $34.60 is more "realistic" for many people, so go for that, and just make sure you don't panic sell if terminal velocity continues on. Make sure you sell it _all_ at the peaks and buy your family something nice. Remember: stocks won't buy you rice or gasoline. Cash. Is. King.
TSX:SULong
by LordWrymouth
Focus on the Fed's decision and the EU's energy problemsEUR/USD 🔼 GBP/USD 🔼 AUD/USD 🔼 USD/CAD 🔽 USD/CHF 🔽 USD/JPY 🔼 XAU 🔽 WTI 🔼 In Tuesday's financial markets, risk aversion dominated, favoring the dollar most. Several factors affected the mood of the market. Gazprom, the Russian gas giant, is supplying Germany with approximately 20% of its usual supply of natural gas. For the upcoming winter, the EU countries have agreed to reduce gas consumption by 15% by the end of the six-month period. Despite the fact that Moscow reported that the missing turbine for the pipeline was on its way after maintenance, it has yet to be installed. Also of interest to speculators were the yields on US bonds. Since 2000, the yield curve has never been more inverted. The yield on 2-year Treasuries is 3.03 percent, while the yield on 10-year notes is 2.76 percent. An inverted curve typically predicts a recession. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reduced its global growth forecast for this year from 3.6 percent to 2.9 percent. The organization also issued a warning that the Ukraine conflict and high inflation could tip the world economy into a deep recession. The World Economic Outlook also said that a complete gas cutoff from Russia to Europe and a decline in the nation's oil exports would further impede development in 2023. With EUR/USD edging closer to 1.0100, the EUR was once more among the USD's weakest rivals. The GBP/USD exchange rate remained above 1.2000, while the AUD/USD closed at 0.6935. The USD/CAD pair increased as oil prices declined, trading close to 1.2890. There was no movement in safe-haven currencies, with the USD/CHF staying stable at 0.9620 and the USD/JPY currently trading at 136.75. Spot gold remained at a familiar level, though it was close to the bottom of its most recent range. The price of an ounce of the shiny metal is $1,717. The United States' decision to sell an additional 20 million barrels of oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve contributed to the slight decline in crude oil prices, which was also a result of the depressing mood. WTI's final trading price for the day was $94.90 a barrel. The US Federal Reserve is presently the center of attention. Although there is a probability of a 100 bps change, it is widely expected that the central bank would increase the funds rate by 75 basis points. Since the most recent Fed meeting, the latter has become less and less plausible as economic growth keeps declining. To control inflation, policymakers might not want to risk a recession. More information on Mitrade website.
by Mitrade_official
DXY Monthly TA Cautiously BullishDXY Monthly cautiously bullish. Recommended ratio: 70% DXY, 30% Cash. *SPECULATION POST. This is my most ambitious TA yet, it is entirely speculative and inspired by recent geopolitical and macroeconomic events. On the left Y-Axis is the FFR to show the visual relationship between DXY and FFR. This chart essentially posits that we are on the brink of something really breaking and is meant to guide investors as to what kind of volatility/turmoil potentially lies ahead. The six blue bars are the past six recessions after 1979 as declared by the National Economic Research Bureau (NERB). Ways that we can get to $120 DXY (these events can be singular or mixed and matched): a) Nancy Pelosi defies Chinese requests and flies to Taiwan, b) USA or NATO member directly intervenes in Russia/Ukraine war (providing fighter jets, sending infantry units, etc.), c) China attacks Taiwan, d) China exacerbates Covid-19 lockdowns, e) countries begin imposing Monkey Pox lockdowns, f) US (and world) enters deep recession, g) Federal Reserve continues raising rates beyond 3.5%, h) I'm probably missing some potential events so please post a comment if you can think of any others.* Price is currently trending up at $107.20 as it attempts to break above $106.52 resistance. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at ~$99, this is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 75 after bouncing at 67, the next resistance is at 80.55 while the next support is at 63. Stochastic remains bearish but is currently forming a trough in the 'bullish autobahn zone' as it attempts to cross over bullish at 94, if it can do this then the next resistance is max top. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up at 2.40 with no signs of peak formation as it still technically tests 1.66 resistance; the next resistance is at 4.63. ADX is currently trending up at 26.46 as Price continues seeing buying pressure, this is bullish. If Price is able to break above $106.52 resistance and turn it to support, the next resistance is at $120 . However, if Price is rejected here, it will likely retest the 50 MA at ~$97 before potentially retesting the uptrend line from March 2008 as support at ~$95 . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes below) $106.
TVC:DXY
by dailytaguy
DXY BUYFundamental: Overall I have a bullish bias for the DXY (USD), given the current recession, it being the federal reserve and the feds current hawkish. Inaddition this week news on the US interest rate will be released, forecasted to increase by 0.75 making the total interest rate at a massive 2.5%. Increasing the interest rate is often used a strategy to reduce inflation. Technical analysis: The white light represents the 50% retracement line, pirce has bounced between the 38 and 50% RL- Healthy pull back The greens lines show the bullish divergence on the rsi, where the price is making lower lows whilst the rsi is making higher lows. The current upsike on the chart has a HIGHER rsi reading then previous prices at similar or higher levels, showing bulls are increasing. The red box represents a resistance zone in which price was unable to breakthrough, if price manages to breakthrough the resistance zone and THEN find support above the resistance zone then a bullish trend (or bullish thesis) can be confirmed. Trades: The pairs I may trade against the dollar: GBPUSD, EURUSD, USDZAR Pairs I may be trade because of dollar bullishness: EURCAD, EURNZD, EURGBP
TVC:DXYLong
by tabbyfatcatx3
Intensified recession mood as US bond yield curve remains invertEUR/USD 🔼 GBP/USD 🔼 AUD/USD 🔼 USD/CAD 🔽 XAU 🔽 WTI 🔼 Almost three weeks of an inverted US bond yield curve has led investors all but confirm the recession, and sluggish GDP data on Thursday could be the nail in the coffin. The latest price to yield readings of the two- and ten-year Treasury notes were at 3.0081 and 2.785, respectively, which remained inverted since 6 July. Meanwhile, major currencies have retrieved lost ground against the greenback. EUR/USD has a minor uptick to 1.022, despite Monday's Germany IFO business climate index declining to 88.6, falling short of the 90.2 forecasts. GBP/USD returned above the 1.2000 level to close at 1.2042. AUD/USD rose and stabilized at 0.6950 level, reaching a closing price of 0.6953. The Australia Consumer Price Index will be available on Wednesday morning to reveal recent price level changes. USD/CAD slumped to 1.2848, after slowing at the 1.2850 level. The jury is still out on gold being the proper hedge option for the possible recession, gold futures retreated from a high of 1,733.3 to 1,719.1. WTI oil futures gained $2 to $96.7 a barrel, lower than expected gas demand in the ongoing US driving season has eased the supply shock impacts. More information on Mitrade website.
by Mitrade_official
AUDCAD at a crossroad - LongThe pair is sitting below the 50 day SMA after clearing a trendline. I would like to see more action within this zone supporting a long trade considering that the zone also has a resistance level which the price broke to the downside in June. Failure to break above this level will invalidate this idea. Therefore, the 0.86xxx and 0.83xx will come into focus Fundamentally speaking, the AUD seems shielded from geopolitical impacts affecting Europe. Australia is expected to do better than other G10 countries as central banks rush to hike interest rates. In addition to this, weakness in the oil markets could lead to a weaker CAD. Oil markets are starting to price in a possibility of a global recession despite the tightness of the supply side the world is currently experiencing. Saudi Arabia has promised to increase supply into 2023 prompting oil prices to move lower Risks to this play are as follows: AUD tends to follow risk sentiment in equities. Therefore, if the equity markets reprice lower in the event of a recession, this AUD strength is going to subside. My assumption is that equity markets have already priced in a global mild recession given that as the market is considered efficient (Efficient market hypothesis states that markets are efficient i.e. have already priced in all the available information in the public domain leaving no room for investors to make excess profits) Should oil prices remain elevated for longer, i.e. the futures curve reprices higher as time moves on, the CAD will remain relatively strong. This is the biggest risk to LONG play. Should the two above risks play out at the same time - a mild recession and higher energy prices, that would possibly push the AUDCAD pair lower towards the March 2020 Low pivot level. It's important to understand the macro background in order to inform your decision on how to position for this play. However, I'm currently bullish on this pair unless risks come to fruition.
Long
by GrizzlyBearBee
Fake it for a sell trick or breakoutThis is very interesting.. the big wick is a fakeout. Please be extremely careful and use caution. The breakout has to happen over 12665 area and make comeback during the recession& inflation.. if the breakout didn’t happen then we will seek the break of the trendline and breakdown to collapse new low create. Let’s see how it plays and hope for breakout even tho Biden had been tested positive for B.A.5 omnicron variant .. this will effect the economy slowdown.
FX:NAS100
by JoyBoyVegae
Final Market Drop For Now Looks Like...We are potentially in the early stages of Primary wave 5 in overall Cycle A of SuperCycle 2. SuperCycle 2 began shortly after the beginning of January this year as we are yet to revisit a new all-time high for the S&P 500 index. The wave number nomenclature for this wave being analyzed is 152A5. I may reference the end of this structure (2A5 or A5) when comparing against historical data. I will try to forward forecast the end of Cycle A which will coincide with the end of Primary wave 5. I will do this by studying the relationships of each Primary wave we have encountered and compare it to the historical relationships between each wave and wave 5. After a rough timeline to completion is established, I will then work backwards and attempt to plot the endpoints for each of the 5 Intermediate waves inside of Primary wave 5. This blueprint will be tweaked as we move through Primary wave 5. (NOTE: If we are still in Primary wave 4, I will re-accomplish these steps once wave 4 appears to have concluded. We are likely still in wave 4 if a high above 4012 is achieved this week, however, Friday July 29, 2022 is likely the last day in this wave.) WAVELENGTH BASED ON STRUCTURE ENDING (A5 / 2A5) Based on all waves ending in 2A5, the strongest model agreement suggests this current wave will last 23 trading days. The second strongest agreement is at 46 days and third strongest at 19 days. Primary wave 1 lasted 35 days, wave 2 was 23 days, wave 3 was 56 days, and as of now wave 4 is 23 days. Waves ending in 2A5 tend to makeup 14.29-16-25% of the larger waves they reside inside with the first value being the 1st quartile, second is the median, and last is 3rd quartile based on all available data. Based on the duration of Primary waves 1 through 4 and application of the 14.29-25% values, Primary 5 could last 23, 26, or 46 days. Waves ending in A5 slightly expand this range with a 15.38-19.18-29.03% quartile breakdown. Replicating this analysis per the last portion, Primary 5 could last 25, 32, or 56 days. Primary waves ending in 2A5 makeup 15.56% - 36.95% of the wave in which they reside. This would add lengths of 25 and 80 days. Primary wave 5 has moved beyond the length of Primary wave 3 on only 2 of 28 occasions. This means the overall length will likely be less than 56 trading days. There are other studied areas and ratios, however the standard deviations in the data does not point to much consistency. The ratio between the duration of Primary wave 4 to Primary wave 5 sits in a relatively small window. Wave 4’s duration in trading days to wave 5 has a median ratio of 0.4358. This means wave 4’s duration of 23 days divided by 0.4358 could see Primary wave 5 lasting 53 days. Quartile 1’s ratio is 0.2517 and quartile 3 is 0.6507. The first quartile would have the length at 91 days while the third quartile would be 35 days. For reference, 23 days would end August 24; 25—August 26; 26—August 29; 32—September 7; 35—September 12; 46—September 27; 56—October 11; 80—November 14; 91—November 30. Most of these days point to a potential bottom by mid-September, however, Primary wave 5 may end as late as November. Calculating the duration of the waves has proven one of the more difficult tasks undertaken during Elliott Wave forecasting, but we are getting better. Realistically we may drop until the next Federal Reserve meeting in September where inflation may appear under more control than it has been. That meeting is scheduled for September 21. WAVE MOVEMENT FORECASTING Wave 5 tends to extend beyond the end of wave 3’s value. These extensions are considered as percentages of wave 3’s movement. If Primary wave 5 drops to the end of Primary wave 3 at 3636.87, then 100% of wave 3’s movement would have been achieved. Waves ending in 2A5 have extensions with the quartile breakdowns of 112.36%-135.09%-204.51%. Waves ending in A5 have a quartile breakdown of 112.36-122.26-163.93%. Primary wave 5s have a quartile breakdown of 105.86-120.12-153.08%. Lastly, Primary wave 5s ending in A5 extend 112.36%, 114.06%, 116.69%, and 203.9% beyond Primary wave 3. Most of these levels have been plotted on the chart above. Another datapoint for forecasting movement is how much wave 5 makes up of the overall wave in which it resides. Waves ending in A5 makeup 36.90%-49.71%-74.18% in the quartile breakdown. Waves ending in 2A5 makeup 30.60%-56.75%-86.46%. Primary wave 5’s tend to makeup 26.305-41.04-51.51% in the quartile breakdown. Primary waves ending in 2A5 specifically makeup 21.37%, 23.51%, 36.09% and 75.12%. Assuming Wave 5 moves beyond the end of Primary wave 3, wave 5’s movement should account for greater than 32% of the overall wave. If Primary wave 5 makes up greater than 70%, the market bottom would be below 2112. This level is well beyond the rare drop level of 2636 which would be a 200% extension of Primary wave 3. Movement below 2636 is likely out of the realm of possible for this Primary wave 5. This would mean wave 5 will likely account for 32%-63% of Cycle wave A’s movement. The bottom of Cycle wave A Primary wave 5 should occur within the highlighted box in the chart above.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
Critical Period for the Markets - To Buy or Not to BuyNot accounting for any fundamentals, the OANDA:SPX500USD and the OANDA:US30USD had a strong rejection from heading lower in 3 consecutive weeks. Fundamentals will be required to decide whether the market is moving back to a long term BUY. We hit a low of ~-20% from the highs on the DJIA and ~ -25% from the highs on the S&P500. On multiple time frames, prices are in a key area. From technical analysis on the daily chart: 1) potentially a double top was forming but did not break the neckline 2) then a double bottom is forming and now we're waiting to see if it breaks the neckline, which is also a major resistance 3) the double bottom formation was pushed up from a 1D demand area, which is also a 1M demand area. Looking at the candle on a weekly chart, it shows a pretty strong rejection. 1) Price printed a lower low vs the previous week at 3721.6 vs 3741.6 2) Previous week was a bullish candle, and this week we have a bearish candle closing in the body of the previous week's candle. 3) Strong rejection candle printed on 14 Jul 2022 with huge wick, followed buy a very strong bullish candle 4) We're facing a resistance zone that was tested multiple times but failed to break. I am expecting a potential fake out for price below 3950, but if candle closes higher, I think we can call buys. (purely based on technical analysis) With fundamentals, we could be more sure of the probability of how the market will move.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by geneAnalytics
5
Update SP; Still going down!SP for now unchanged from the main analysis. Still the target is 2700-2000 with an emphasis on around 2000. I see the current increases as a correction in the downtrend. I currently have four stop levels: Now, 3940, which is the old range of wave N, largest wave in the entire decline; 4040 – the second range of wave N of the current increases; 4137 – KIJUN W1; very strong resistance. 4220-4270 – the third and fourth ranges of wave N; TENKAN MN1 and the cloud on W1. At each of the levels I will try to take a position – if I am not on any other indices – after confirmation from the lower intervals. The level I am most interested in is 3, except that I don't want to succumb to the 'best level' emotion so as not to miss the opportunity. Focus and patience. GOOD LUCK!
SP:SPXShort
by Manticore_Investments
Bonds as safe-haven asset#Bonds #US10Y #YieldBond Will the US 10-year bond break the descending channel that has held for more than 50 years? The price of the bond is inversely proportional to its yield. This has been falling in value drastically as its profitability increases, but will it manage to overcome the resistance exerted by a descending channel for decades? If we take into account the deflationary measures taken by the FED in recent times, and there is a high probability of entering an economic recession, there are very few assets that act as refuge assets. The bonus is one of them. Other assets ​could be gold, precious metals, and dollar, which has acted as a safe-haven currency in previous recessions. Cryptocurrencies could play a very important role too, but to do so it must overcome the current correlation with stocks market. We recommend adding to your portfolios some safe-haven assets, and grow over time depending on whether or not the circumstances of a recession occur.
ULong
by jumper_stars_trading
GOLD Daily TA Neutral BearishGOLDUSD Daily neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 35% Gold, 65% Cash. *Gold, Oil, Agriculture, Treasuries, Euro and Cryptos finished higher today while DXY and Equities closed lower. Last week the EU proposed a new ban on Gold imports from Russia (the fifth largest holder of Gold reserves in the world). Equities started strong but then finished lower on news that Apple is going to slow hiring and spending in 2023 . This rally appears to be part of a broader technical relief rally amidst an onslaught of macroeconomic and geopolitical bearishness, but it still begs the question... when will a recession finally be fully priced into financial markets? Key dates this week: June Housing Starts and Building Permits reports scheduled for release at 830am (EST) tomorrow morning (07/19); the next GDPnow Q2 GDP estimate (previous -1.5%) by the Atlanta Federal Reserve is scheduled for release at 830am (EST) tomorrow morning (07/19) as well. The market consensus estimate for Housing Starts is 1.58m (up from 1.549m in May) and for Building Permits it's 1.65m (down from 1.695m in May) ; if Housing Starts and Building Permits come in lower than consensus it would signal that the economy is continuing to trend toward a recession and may be perceived as bullish by the markets because it would also imply that the Fed's hawkishness is being effective in reducing demand (the only way the Fed can directly influence inflation).* Price is currently attempting to find a temporary bottom at $1700 while continuing to form a Bull Flag after breaking down below $1742 minor support; the next support is at $1685. Volume remains Moderate (high) and is currently on track to break a two session streak of seller dominance if it can close today's session in the green. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $1742 minor resistance, this margin is mildly bullish. RSI is currently trending sideways at 25 after being rejected by 27 resistance, the next support is at 20. Stochastic crossed over bearish in today's session and is currently trending down at 2 as it approaches a retest of max bottom for the second time this month. MACD remains bearish and is currently beginning to form a soft trough at -35, the next support is at -39 (the ATL is at -52). ADX is currently trending up at 36 as Price continues to see selling pressure, this is bearish at the moment; if ADX is able to form a peak as Price reverses and goes higher, this would be bullish. If Price is able to bounce here at $1700 then it will likely retest $1742 minor resistance . However, if it continues breaking down here, it will likely retest $1684 support for the first time since August 2021. Mental Stop Loss: (one close above) $1742.
G
by dailytaguy
Preparing more dropsAs recession started few days ago .. and my idea still stands. 1 more leg down .. happen should be about 12K if not then around 10K. If you are still in a buy secure your profits immediately; opposite side of you are in a sell position MT4&5 stay in for a swing trade big profits in your way. If you are looking for a buy highly suggest wait around 12-10K.. bear flag still in made we should be heading down and break that 17500 support which isn’t that strong enough. Low support is stronger around 12-10K
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by JoyBoyVegae
2
US DOLLAR (DXY) - THE BULLRUN ISN'T OVER YET 🚨Macro trend analysis and price action suggests that the bull run for the US DOLLAR / DXY is not over yet, and at best, will have a small period of sideways consolidation on the Fibonacci line shown, before continuing its upside. The yellow lines shown are what I would consider reversal areas, the first one being at around 120 and the second at 160. This analysis coincides with previous economic downturns and recessions, where rate hikes and global debt sent the dollar sky rocketing. This movement will affect all assetts both inside and outside of the crypto space. Let's hope we see some macro trend reversals at 120, however data suggests that 160 is more likely.
TVC:DXYLong
by JamesSpindler
MARCH MADNESS (Major historical event key dates and price areas)The patterns are there if you look close enough you will see them. EVERY MAJOR ECONOMIC HISTORICAL EVENT HAPPENED IN MARCH. EVERY SINGLE ONE. - We are not in a recession. The recession has not started yet but it is imminent. Something to keep in mind is when the economy is in a recession the dollar deflates not inflates and unemployment rises. Something big is going to happen March of 2003. Just like March of 2020 (Corona Virus) My guess is the planned "Russian hacks" will begin in the United States initiating a war crime agains the US thus commencing a new WWIII ***(Keep in mind the Russians have already hacked a MAJOR United States cyber security company as of mid 2021)*** All major historical events have always been and will continue to be orchestrated and planned. Brace yourselves, .March of 2023 might be the start of the new Great Recession. Reference the dates and historical events on the chart. I can't make this stuff up. -Lomeli
TVC:DXY
by Lomeli760
Follow through US30 analysis against 2008 crashCould it be that market cycles are shorter now, versus back then in 2008? Also, we probably have more participants in the market now compared to prior years. More investors, traders as it has become more accessible. More people learnt from 2008 crash to buy the dips on indexes like the S&P as there is a very high probability of it only going higher. But, here's what I mapped out on the 1D chart from 2008 crash versus the 1D chart now. Could we be in a period of consolidation at point 6? or are we only at the tail end of point 5? Could market take a turn for the worse with recession? Or are all the scares just not coming through in numbers? Indeed, we came close to a key level of pre-covid highs. But, I would still be calling for sells based on technical analysis, but will have to wait for confirmation. There is also a probability for continued upside.
OANDA:US30USDShort
by geneAnalytics
1
SPX Daily TA Neutral BearishSPX Daily neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 45% SPX, 55% Cash. * US June Retail Sales was reported this morning and beat the consensus estimate (0.8%) by 0.2% coming in at 1%; compared to last month's retail sales number of -0.1%, it's reasonable to suggest that consumer demand is returning after six consecutive months of shrinkage (Jan 2.7%, Feb 1.7%, March 1.2%, April 0.7%, May -0.1%). One of the primary goals of the Fed raising FFR is to temper economic activity (lessen demand). The Fed announced QT and the possibility of rate hikes in December of 2021, what followed was six months of Retail Sales (consumer demand) shrinkage; the Fed didn't start raising FFR until March 2022 and QT began in June 2022, a testament to how powerful even just words from the Fed can be. This is relevant because these are things to consider when determining how far ahead or behind money markets are, and begs the question once again, have financial markets already priced in a recession? It's hard to say when Federal Reserve Governor Waller says he needs to review Retail Sales and Housing Starts before committing to a more than 75bps rate hike on 07/27 , while St. Louis Federal Reserve President Bullard says that Core PCE inflation hasn't peaked yet but that there isn't too much difference between 75bps and 100bps on 07/27. Equities, Cryptos, and Commodities (aside from Gold, Copper, Palladium, Wheat and Soy) are up; Treasuries, VIX, DXY down. Housing Starts and Building Permits numbers are to be released at 830am (EST) on 07/19.* Price is currently trending up at $3870 and is on the verge of testing the uptrend line from 06/16 at $3880 as resistance after bouncing at $3707 minor support. Volume is currently Low and on track to favor buyers for a third consecutive session. Parabolic SAR at $3938 minor resistance, this margin is mildly bullish. RSI is currently trending up at 49 after bouncing at 42, the next resistance is at 53. Stochastic is on the verge of crossing over bullish at 37 after bouncing at 25; the next support is at 18 and resistance at 48. MACD is currently trending up at -31 after bouncing at the uptrend line from March 2020 at -37 as support (which is simultaneously reversing a soft peak formation), the next resistance is at -11. ADX is currently trending sideways at 20 as Price is pushing higher, this is neutral at the moment; if ADX was to start trending up with Price this would be bullish, and if it trends down as Price goes up this would be bearish. If Price is able to break above the uptrend line from 06/16 at $3880 , it will be forced to contend with the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at $3938 minor resistance . However, if Price is rejected here then it will likely retest $3707 minor support before potentially retesting $3508 minor support for the first time since November 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $3938.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
Oof we probably in for a rough earning season and second half.Well CPI-U came in at 9.1%. based on 1990s calculations that closer to 12.5% and based on 1980s calculations that's closer to 17-18% Just OOF. Guarantees FED won't go data dependent and then about face in their next meetings but honestly who thought they would...oh right everyone but bond traders. Add to that the earning reports for Netflix, IBM, Twitter, Tesla, Google which have been hammered by the first half of the year already. It is not gonna be a fun few weeks. So basically the FED probably hikes 0.75 or 1.00 and might actually break something this time France is forced to go non negative on rates leaving BOJ as the last sink hole of free money. I am still waiting on the data dependent turn around later this year to begin a new DCA and it just got delayed a few months while the employment numbers definitely don't get revised down from 370k at all. Then once something breaks someones gonna have a nice little grabbed by the ear talk with JPOW before the November kerfuffle. But anyone remember how inflation and deflation in hyperinflationary scenarios comes in waves? This looks like wave #1. Depending on reaction and overreaction of the FED, ECB, & BOJ in the next few years from just the fallout of the economic kerfuffle worldwide as it stands right now, is emense to say the least. Not to mention the effects come harvest when we actually figure out how deep the rabbit hole goes and knock on effects of fertilizer production for 2023. All of which unsancrimoniously glazes over the Ukraine situation in a way that is dehumanizing to put it mildly. Sometimes I just hate people trying to make a buck. But welcome to the world someone built, wasn't me. Hope that covers it for anyone living under a rock. Next two weeks = Baaaaaaaaad. All the best stay sane we gonna need a few who aren't loony when the dust settles.
SP:SPXShort
by GreatScottTheMoon
1