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Recession

not full blown recession... yetWatching the 3 mo and 2 year very closely. I think this is an indicator for a recession and not the 2 and 10's because it shows more that the short term risk is outweighing anything mid term. Everything is is wishy washy with definitions now a days lol but this is going to be the icing on the cake for confirmations. Looking at the dollar strength we had a little pullback buts its ready to resume higher putting more weakness on emerging markets and currencies and also US equities. Looking at UVXY and the VIX i think that the 20 range for the vix is a newer normal in this market environment though UVXY is going really low now and almost oversold on the daily compared to where we are at in this little "recovery" thats been taking place. a lot to digest in the macro perspective and we'll see what the terminal rate will end up being for the FED. exciting times. That's all folks.
TVC:US03MYLong
by moonman777
What the Recession and FOMC Mean for StocksStocks have broken out as we identified yesterday. The fact that stocks and bonds have both caught a bid gives us insight as to how the markets are interpreting the FOMC rate hike and the GDP numbers yesterday. As we all know, GDP numbers came in negative, the second negative reading, which puts us formally in a recession by definition. Furthermore, the Fed only raised rates by 75bps (some sources were predicting 100bps). This suggests that they will likely pivot to a more dovish stance, and be forced to lower rates, or take a more accommodating stance to fight the recession, meaning that stocks are clear to rally. There is still a lot of open interest with puts in the 4000's, but when cash heavy investors start to unwind we could easily punch through. The S&P 500 broke out, clearing 4009 with ease, and hitting 4068, our next target. We broke through that and are making a run for 4122, hovering just below that. If we see more momentum come through then we will likely test 4178 or 4188, we will likely face resistance there, but will have reestablished the value area between 4068 and 4188 from June. If we retrace, watch for support at 4009, a relative high and technical level.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Continuation of Bear Market Rally Summer 2022Hello Hello! So far so good from my previous bear market rally chart. Everything seems to be held in place as the market continues to climb upwards with regard to recession and the recent 75 bps rate hike and on top of it all very controversial earning reports. Shorts and retail continue to be punished for their bear case as the market continues to climb upwards breaking above the 400 level and more. Let's continue this rally till September SPY 440 is my goal end of September, see you then!
AMEX:SPYLong
by TryHarder14
BTC/USDHi all, Is is the bottom in? Most probable yes, at least for a bear market run. Almost 40% up since the bottom. If macro economy doesn't improve and we are going to stagflation as FED is playing with interest rates, BTC and Stock market will not perform so well. If BTC will break down again then will be a major alarm signal that it will be harder and harder to fully recover. Until the halving in 2024 we have planty of time but it will be a harder bear market especially because is first recession for BTC. I believe the technology behind is unique and the value of BTC will perform very well 5-10 years from now for sure. DCA constantly and with a proper risk management. A lot of patience and the portofolio will perform a lot in the following years. Buy the fear sell the greed. What do you think about BTC price?
INDEX:BTCUSD
by cryptoforevery1
SPX 500 2008 AND 2022 🤔📉History does not repeat itself, but it rhymes. Over time we have seen how there are economic recessions every 8 years to 15 years. The US reported 2 negative quarters which is already a technical recession but the FED tries to hide it with yesterday's news (July 27, 2022), there are still key dates to potentially short almost everything including BTC, CRYPTOCURRENCIES, STOCKS and INDICES. The key dates to keep an eye on the market are: 1. August 5 (NFP) - August 10 (Annual Inflation). 2. September 1 (Non-agricultural employment change). 3. September 21 (FED Open Market Committee Economic Projections). The economic downturn is here, so Meta must do more with less - Mark Zuckerberg (Wednesday, July 27 in the "Meta Platforms" erning report)
SP:SPX
by Ed_Ale
2
Fed hints at slowing down after a 75 bps rate hikeEUR/USD 🔼 GBP/USD 🔼 AUD/USD 🔼 USD/CAD 🔽 XAU 🔼 WTI 🔼 Earlier today, the Federal Reserve continued its path of aggressive rate hikes by increasing it by 75 basis points to 2.50%. Meanwhile, Chairman Powell claimed it would be appropriate to slow down the tightening eventually, providing some breathing space for other major currencies, USD/CAD dropped from 1.2895 to 1.2821. Regarding concerns over a recession, the US GDP data for the second quarter will be available tonight, and the market estimated a 0.5% growth - which could avoid meeting the technical definition of a recession. As the dollar retreated, the British Pound became the bigger winner, GBP/USD rose and stabilized at the 1.2170 level, gaining over 130 pips to close at 1.2151, and the EUR/USD also maintained a foothold at the 1.0200 level before closing at 1.0202. Australia’s Retail Sales reading in June missed market projections at 0.2%, but AUD/USD nonetheless reached 0.6993, edging towards 0.700. Gold futures took advantage of a weakened greenback and sluggish bond yields and climbed to $1,719.1, currently trading at $1,743.0 an ounce. US crude oil inventories further went down by 4.523 million barrels, and since Russia reduced gas supplies to Europe, WTI oil futures increased $3 to $98.17 a barrel. More information on Mitrade website.
by Mitrade_official
SPX earnings recession, growth slow down.The fed hiked rates today by 0.75%. They have also moved to meeting by meeting data dependency. Since they've done both in one meeting there is the possibility that if inflation continues higher for a few months they will be unable or unwilling to cut rates to save the economy from the earrings recession likely on the way. In short the supply side situation is still not resolved leading to over supply of certain goods and under supply of others. Oversupply of goods in typical capital overproduction is what breaks the system due to over competition and thus lower prices. utility theory of value applies until extreme highs/lows of supply and demand shows the underlying labor relations. This imbalance will lead to a slow down in growth and thus an earning recession. Q3 & Q4 are thus likely a prolonged period of reduced demand coupled with oversupply. Such conditions will allow the FED to pivot, reduce rates and step up asset purchases late in Q4 or early Q1 as they will be reluctant to cut rates and "save" the economy from low growth while jobs numbers are high and inflation stabilizes in Q3 and Q4 even if that's what is needed it would be politically dangerous until after the election. If you're a bull you want the jobs numbers to decline quickly in a sharp recession allowing the FED to pivot sooner. If you're a bear you want inflation numbers to be sustained and plateau while jobs numbers slowly come down. I for one am bearish on the current overall trend and that is unfortunate since it means real pain ahead for actual people not just numbers on a screen. Always remember that little nugget is conditional to you making money anthropomorphic reader I am creating on the fly. Probably shouting into the ether on this one...which reminds me of a good long trade actually given the merge...hmm.
SP:SPXShort
by GreatScottTheMoon
2
Suncor - Pain to Pleasure and Pleasure to PainThe truth is that the energy sector has been doing really well. WTI Crude appeared to can't stop won't stop, and then Natural Gas appeared to can't stop won't stop. Now, both NG1 and WTI are going to dump as the Federal Reserve points a nuclear bomb at the so-called "inflation," which in reality are high commodities and high stock prices. Shortly it will appear that the Party is over for commodities and stocks, and this will provide a great deal of pain for people who have bought this pullback from $53, not realizing that the knife has yet to cut sufficiently deep. However, natural gas and oil are something that the world cannot do without, for mankind is paralyzed without electricity, and no matter how much of a leftist you want to be and how much of the ESG Kool Aid you've drank, the cold truth is that without coal and natural gas you won't have electricity for your computers, and without oil, you won't have a shipping and transportation network. A fundamental lack of either electricity or transport would threaten the ruling North American Communist Party's stability, and so they will be maintained, but the prices will drive ordinary people out of the market, and you will see social credit and digital identification-based fuel rationing during this time period, if all goes well for the Communist Party. (It won't.) In the process, WTI will set a new high, probably painfully higher than people expect, and in a faster time frame that people expect, but also coming up short of moonboy expectations. I would say that this $350/b as some have predicted is nonsense. I think the number is $180, and then demand destruction will be savagely en route. For Natural Gas, I believe that Henry Hub futures are going to heatseek $18 after a solid clean out, and then the game will quickly wrap itself up. Look on the upside: at least you haven't been paying $40 like Europe and Australia already has for months. All of this means that when everything is scary and prices have been driven deep enough to give you the chance to sell low after buying high, energy stocks will begin a real pump. This pump will serve as a bear trap and will be pretty amusing. Your best bet on Suncor is in the $27 mark with a target above the double top around $62. Frankly, I would say you could see a new all time high over $80, but drawing this on this chart is too hard. Either way with a $27 entry and a $62 target with a stop below $21, you're getting an RR of almost 5. An entry of $34.60 is more "realistic" for many people, so go for that, and just make sure you don't panic sell if terminal velocity continues on. Make sure you sell it _all_ at the peaks and buy your family something nice. Remember: stocks won't buy you rice or gasoline. Cash. Is. King.
TSX:SULong
by LordWrymouth
Focus on the Fed's decision and the EU's energy problemsEUR/USD 🔼 GBP/USD 🔼 AUD/USD 🔼 USD/CAD 🔽 USD/CHF 🔽 USD/JPY 🔼 XAU 🔽 WTI 🔼 In Tuesday's financial markets, risk aversion dominated, favoring the dollar most. Several factors affected the mood of the market. Gazprom, the Russian gas giant, is supplying Germany with approximately 20% of its usual supply of natural gas. For the upcoming winter, the EU countries have agreed to reduce gas consumption by 15% by the end of the six-month period. Despite the fact that Moscow reported that the missing turbine for the pipeline was on its way after maintenance, it has yet to be installed. Also of interest to speculators were the yields on US bonds. Since 2000, the yield curve has never been more inverted. The yield on 2-year Treasuries is 3.03 percent, while the yield on 10-year notes is 2.76 percent. An inverted curve typically predicts a recession. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reduced its global growth forecast for this year from 3.6 percent to 2.9 percent. The organization also issued a warning that the Ukraine conflict and high inflation could tip the world economy into a deep recession. The World Economic Outlook also said that a complete gas cutoff from Russia to Europe and a decline in the nation's oil exports would further impede development in 2023. With EUR/USD edging closer to 1.0100, the EUR was once more among the USD's weakest rivals. The GBP/USD exchange rate remained above 1.2000, while the AUD/USD closed at 0.6935. The USD/CAD pair increased as oil prices declined, trading close to 1.2890. There was no movement in safe-haven currencies, with the USD/CHF staying stable at 0.9620 and the USD/JPY currently trading at 136.75. Spot gold remained at a familiar level, though it was close to the bottom of its most recent range. The price of an ounce of the shiny metal is $1,717. The United States' decision to sell an additional 20 million barrels of oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve contributed to the slight decline in crude oil prices, which was also a result of the depressing mood. WTI's final trading price for the day was $94.90 a barrel. The US Federal Reserve is presently the center of attention. Although there is a probability of a 100 bps change, it is widely expected that the central bank would increase the funds rate by 75 basis points. Since the most recent Fed meeting, the latter has become less and less plausible as economic growth keeps declining. To control inflation, policymakers might not want to risk a recession. More information on Mitrade website.
by Mitrade_official
DXY Monthly TA Cautiously BullishDXY Monthly cautiously bullish. Recommended ratio: 70% DXY, 30% Cash. *SPECULATION POST. This is my most ambitious TA yet, it is entirely speculative and inspired by recent geopolitical and macroeconomic events. On the left Y-Axis is the FFR to show the visual relationship between DXY and FFR. This chart essentially posits that we are on the brink of something really breaking and is meant to guide investors as to what kind of volatility/turmoil potentially lies ahead. The six blue bars are the past six recessions after 1979 as declared by the National Economic Research Bureau (NERB). Ways that we can get to $120 DXY (these events can be singular or mixed and matched): a) Nancy Pelosi defies Chinese requests and flies to Taiwan, b) USA or NATO member directly intervenes in Russia/Ukraine war (providing fighter jets, sending infantry units, etc.), c) China attacks Taiwan, d) China exacerbates Covid-19 lockdowns, e) countries begin imposing Monkey Pox lockdowns, f) US (and world) enters deep recession, g) Federal Reserve continues raising rates beyond 3.5%, h) I'm probably missing some potential events so please post a comment if you can think of any others.* Price is currently trending up at $107.20 as it attempts to break above $106.52 resistance. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at ~$99, this is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 75 after bouncing at 67, the next resistance is at 80.55 while the next support is at 63. Stochastic remains bearish but is currently forming a trough in the 'bullish autobahn zone' as it attempts to cross over bullish at 94, if it can do this then the next resistance is max top. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up at 2.40 with no signs of peak formation as it still technically tests 1.66 resistance; the next resistance is at 4.63. ADX is currently trending up at 26.46 as Price continues seeing buying pressure, this is bullish. If Price is able to break above $106.52 resistance and turn it to support, the next resistance is at $120 . However, if Price is rejected here, it will likely retest the 50 MA at ~$97 before potentially retesting the uptrend line from March 2008 as support at ~$95 . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes below) $106.
TVC:DXY
by dailytaguy
DXY BUYFundamental: Overall I have a bullish bias for the DXY (USD), given the current recession, it being the federal reserve and the feds current hawkish. Inaddition this week news on the US interest rate will be released, forecasted to increase by 0.75 making the total interest rate at a massive 2.5%. Increasing the interest rate is often used a strategy to reduce inflation. Technical analysis: The white light represents the 50% retracement line, pirce has bounced between the 38 and 50% RL- Healthy pull back The greens lines show the bullish divergence on the rsi, where the price is making lower lows whilst the rsi is making higher lows. The current upsike on the chart has a HIGHER rsi reading then previous prices at similar or higher levels, showing bulls are increasing. The red box represents a resistance zone in which price was unable to breakthrough, if price manages to breakthrough the resistance zone and THEN find support above the resistance zone then a bullish trend (or bullish thesis) can be confirmed. Trades: The pairs I may trade against the dollar: GBPUSD, EURUSD, USDZAR Pairs I may be trade because of dollar bullishness: EURCAD, EURNZD, EURGBP
TVC:DXYLong
by tabbyfatcatx3
Intensified recession mood as US bond yield curve remains invertEUR/USD 🔼 GBP/USD 🔼 AUD/USD 🔼 USD/CAD 🔽 XAU 🔽 WTI 🔼 Almost three weeks of an inverted US bond yield curve has led investors all but confirm the recession, and sluggish GDP data on Thursday could be the nail in the coffin. The latest price to yield readings of the two- and ten-year Treasury notes were at 3.0081 and 2.785, respectively, which remained inverted since 6 July. Meanwhile, major currencies have retrieved lost ground against the greenback. EUR/USD has a minor uptick to 1.022, despite Monday's Germany IFO business climate index declining to 88.6, falling short of the 90.2 forecasts. GBP/USD returned above the 1.2000 level to close at 1.2042. AUD/USD rose and stabilized at 0.6950 level, reaching a closing price of 0.6953. The Australia Consumer Price Index will be available on Wednesday morning to reveal recent price level changes. USD/CAD slumped to 1.2848, after slowing at the 1.2850 level. The jury is still out on gold being the proper hedge option for the possible recession, gold futures retreated from a high of 1,733.3 to 1,719.1. WTI oil futures gained $2 to $96.7 a barrel, lower than expected gas demand in the ongoing US driving season has eased the supply shock impacts. More information on Mitrade website.
by Mitrade_official