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Recession

Until 19.7K Recession concerns, this is why to go lowerBitcoin miners shit off the rigs since Texas power grids even so heat wave threatens grid rolling blackouts but there’s more.. The recession had gone worse and pushing the weigh as the inflation stilll marks the risk to go higher, while the red and still pushing the chains to high up the rates of the inflation. As so Wall St, expects bitcoin and all other crypto to crash even worse.. experts still seeing even investors expect low as 10K back to back haven’t bought since September 2020. We all be expecting lower price as recession and inflation went higher rates, as for pandemic.. we aren’t in pandemic at all but still in a stage of Epidemic .. monkey pox are spreading, new omnicron variant are spreading even faster while BA5 variant are still spreading. Now you all know and again if you are looking to buy , I would wait until 10K hits.. the more it drops the higher the price gets. 10K strongest bottom support will take us over 100K. If your day trading please trade safe and use low risk, do not go high risk.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by JoyBoyVegae
I see nothing good here... There is literally nothing good seeing #Euro and #USD reaching parity. Clearly, and despite the roughly same volume at each top, the 6-year-double top is no joke. Especially considering the fact that its fueling the violation of a major round-numbered multi-year support right at this moment. Most probably if not sure, Due to the fact that it takes longer to build than to tear down, #EURUSD will trade between 0.80-0.90 before Dec22 pushing the market into a (deeper) recession and inflation will hit harder this time.
Short
by GTN671
1
Ugly Markets - Embrace the TrendsThe trend is always our best friend in markets across all asset classes. While many investors and traders waste their time interpreting the new cycle and other factors, the path of least resistance of market prices is a real-time indicator of the current sentiment. Stocks and bonds fall in Q2 Four of six commodity sectors post losses Rising interest rates and a strong dollar Economic contraction- Copper tells a story Go with the flow Market prices rise when buyers are more aggressive than sellers and fall when sellers dominate buyers. The current price of any asset is always the correct price because it is the level where buyers and sellers agree on value in a transparent environment, the marketplace. The results for Q2 were ugly in most markets. Stocks and bonds fell, the dollar index rose, and four of six commodity sectors posted losses. The best performing sectors reflect the supply-side issues created by the war in Ukraine, sanctions on Russia, and Russian retaliation. Uncertainty in markets creates price variance, and markets reflect the economic and geopolitical landscapes. As we move into the second half of 2022, uncertainty is at the highest level in years. Meanwhile, market liquidity tends to decline during the summer vacation months. Lower participation only exacerbates price variance as bids can disappear during selloffs and offers often evaporate during rallies. It is a time for caution in markets across all asset classes, but the trends on a simple price chart tell us all we need to know about the path of least resistance of prices. Stocks and bonds fall in Q2 The stock market was ugly in Q2: The DJIA fell 11.25% The S&P 500 declined 16.45% The tech-heavy NASDAQ dropped 22.45% Over the first half of 2022: The DJIA was down 15.31% The S&P 500 fell 20.58% The NASDAQ plunged 29.51% As the Fed began increasing the Fed Funds Rate and reducing its swollen balance sheet, the US 30-Year Treasury bond futures fell 8.19% in Q2 and were 13.75% lower over the first half of this year as of June 30. The long bond fell below its technical support level at the October 2018 136-16 low and reached 132-09 in June before bouncing. Four of six commodity sectors post losses While the energy and animal protein sectors posted gains in Q2, base and precious metals, grains, and soft commodities moved to the downside. The quarterly results by sector were: Energy- +6.77% Animal proteins- +3.31% Gains- -3.46% Soft commodities- -4.12% Precious metals- -12.91% Base metals- -27.24% Over the first half of 2022, four of six sectors were higher than at the end of 2021: Energy- +43.86% Grains- +14.65% Animal proteins- +10.96% Soft commodities- +1.46% Precious metals - -5.43% Base metals- -13.07% The results reflect the economic and political landscapes. Energy and food prices rose as the war in Ukraine threatens the global supply chains. Metal prices declined because central bank policies and economic conditions led to rising rates and a strong US dollar. Rising interest rates and a strong dollar The US Federal Reserve blamed rising prices and inflation on “transitory” pandemic-related factors throughout most of 2021. The central bank waited far too long to address inflation and is now playing catch-up when the war in Ukraine and geopolitical tensions impact the global economy’s supply side. Central bank monetary policy can affect the demand-side, but they have few tools to manage supply-side shocks. The rise in energy and food and the decline in metal prices tell us that central banks are struggling to address the current economic landscape. The US 30-Year Treasury bond futures chart shows the pattern of lower highs and lower lows. While the long bond bounced from the June low, the bearish trend remains intact in early July. The US dollar index, which measures the US currency against other world reserve foreign exchange instruments, rose 6.21% in Q2 and was 9.28% higher over the first half of 2022. The dollar index settled at the 104.464 level on June 30 and rose to a new two-decade high of 107.615 on July 8. Since the US dollar is the world’s reserve currency and the pricing benchmark for most commodities, a strong dollar caused raw materials to rise in other currencies, putting downward pressure on dollar-based prices. Economic contraction- Copper tells a story The US remains the world’s leading economy. In Q1, US GDP fell, and it likely declined in Q2. The textbook definition of a recession is two consecutive quarterly GDP declines. Copper is a base metal that trades on the London Metals Exchange and the CME’s COMEX division. Copper has a long history of diagnosing the economic climate, earning it the nickname Doctor Copper. In Q1, COMEX and LME copper prices rose by around 6.5%. In Q2, they plunged, with the COMEX futures falling 21.82% and the LME forwards dropping 20.41%. COMEX and LME copper prices were down over 15% over the first half of 2022. The chart of COMEX copper futures shows the move to an all-time $5.01 per pound high in March 2022 and a decline to a low below $3.40 in early July. The descent below technical support at the August 2021 $3.98 low and nearly 30% drop as of July 8 are signs that recession is not on the horizon; it has already gripped the economy. Go with the flow Inflation remains at a four-decade high, and while raw material prices have declined, the economic condition is far higher than the current Fed Funds rate. The central bank has pledged to fight inflation with monetary policy tools. Higher interest rates could put more downward pressure on raw material prices and the stock market as the economy contracts. Time will tell if the Fed continues its hawkish path or reacts to current market conditions. Waiting far too long to address inflation in 2021 suggests the central bank will likely remain hawkish regardless of market conditions in 2022. It is impossible to pick tops or bottoms in any market as prices often rise or fall far beyond where logic, reason, and rational analysis dictate. A market participant’s most effective tool is to follow the trends until they bend. The path of least resistance of asset prices can be the most significant factor for future performance. In these troubled times, where uncertainty is at the highest level in years, don’t fight the trends and go with the flow. In early Q2, it remains bearish in many markets across all asset classes. Stocks, bonds, commodities, cryptos, and other asset classes are making lower highs and lower lows, while the dollar index is moving in the opposite direction. Markets are ugly, but nothing lasts forever. Trend following can be the best route for capturing the most significant moves. You will never buy the lows or sell the highs when following trends, as they will cause short positions at bottoms and long positions at market tops. However, trend-following allows for extracting a substantial percentage from a significant price move. Embrace those trends until they change. -- Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility, inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
CBOT:ZB1!Education
by Andy_Hecht
Facebook (Meta) False Breakout SetupHi Traders, New week new opportunities. I am currently looking at Facebook (Meta) for a False Breakout Setup. The most recent price action shows that price has created a resistance at 172.58 which has multiple attempts to break, I do believe that price will break the current resistance and meet with the real untested resistance at 176.0. If this does happen I will then start looking at trading opportunities. Now I don’t really care what happens when price breaks the resistance or how the price may move, All I care about is price break back into the range below 172.58. If this does happen I will be more than happy to start looking at shorts. Looking at higher time frames, This is a simple lower high we need formed for the continuation. I am long term bearish on most Nas100 stocks and I will be looking at the longer term picture or potential shorts to come. Let smash this week. Renaldo Philander
NASDAQ:METAShort
by Tradebudz
US 10-year rate. Elliott wave possibilitiesThe US 10-year yield has pulled back from 3.50% to 2.75%, which is a sizeable drop by any stretch of imagination. The Fed has clearly said its current focus is on price stability and with yesterday's employment numbers, there is still little reason to believe that fears of a so-called slowdown, or even worse - a recession, are showing up in high frequency data that the central bank is using, atleast for now (or they have the data, but because of political pressures, continue to focus on containing inflation). The vertical drop in commodities has been puzzling no doubt; in fact the descent has been so quick that most people are aligning towards the fact that Fed forward guidance of more hikes (it remains to be seen whether existing measures of tightening policy are having the desired effect) are showing signs of demand destruction. I think for the Fed to acknowledge that a recession is a bigger worry than growth (at a certain point of time in the future), they would like to see a consistently southward CPI print which shows credible signs of not being sticky on the downside. For now, I believe they are simply taking back all that they made available in terms of additional QE to pull the world economy out of the Covid led crash. Tactically, the visit to 2.75% was fleeting -- that was a key support level, so the market comfortably vaulted past 3% on employment gains that were more than expected. These moves have now resulted in the market dangling at a critical juncture which I will try to address via the three best Elliott wave counts I have conjured up (the right to be wrong is exclusively mine, and so is the right to adapt quickly to what the market might be doing regardless of what I think it should do) given the presently available evidence. All three counts start from the July 2021 lows -- the count from the 2020 crash lows of 0.34% has not been used for the sake of this analysis (which suggests the bull market in yields has much longer and higher to go) but that's a separate discussion altogether. Primary Count: Long term trend in yields higher and is very much intact, but more sideways churn is expected within a RUNNING TRIANGLE before a surge: Requirement: 2.75% must hold for this to be valid labelling Alternate count #1: Long term higher, but one dip below 2.75% is needed to meet the minimum requirements for w((4)) to end Requirement: One more dip before a larger degree 5th wave targets 3.50% and higher; 2.75% can be broken or at the least, retested Link: Alternate count # 2: More aggressive count that suggests higher immediately, longer-term higher yields play Requirement: 2.75% cannot be broken from here, not even by a tick as per the rules of the wave principle for an impulse Link: Conclusion: Regardless of which wave count is in play - we will know that as we have more information appearing from the right of the chart, the impulse up in yields is anything but done. Perhaps, inflation will remain sticky longer than the consensus view is. -- Guest Contributor at the @CMTAssociation
TVC:US10Y
by CMT_Association
12
WTI -5/7/2022-• April-June period prices were contained inside an ascending channel • After peaking in June, prices broke the channel support and started trading inside a bearish descending trend line • Long term support trend line holding since Dec 2021 still intact • As the worldwide economic picture is worsening, outlook is slowly turning negative for the oil's demand • Bears are targeting trend line support, today at 104 • Below 104, next target is 100 psychological figure
BLACKBULL:WTIShort
by RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT
Reviewing Trends and their behavior during RecessionsWhile retiring after some decent gains during this whipsaw day, I thought I'd go over utilizing the Weekly trend indicator, and how that ended up during a recession vs the occasional downtrend signal. To recap the video if you don't feel like listening, the ONLY time a Weekly Downtrend Signal has occurred, and that index prices were lower when the Weekly Uptrend Signal occurred, is during the recessions. Even during the beginning of Covid, the Weekly Downtrend Signal hit at 2983, but the rapid rise back up and the calculation of trends would have signaled the Weekly Uptrend at 3276. An overall boost in the economy from here for the rest of the year would make this nothing more than a downturn. That doesn't really add up when looking at the overall state of the economy, at least not from my perspective. Many factors are worse than the last recession (Literally called the "Great Recession" because of how rough it was), and the next few months in terms of inflation falling without unemployment rising above 5% could be real factors to watch.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SemperTrader
WOW RIGHT ONCE AGAINWe have been seeing crazy trading success lately! SPY and the general etf and index market alone have been showing some struggle all day long. Today just market a huge double top on every time frame under the daily. This is crazy! This is confirmed by an ascending wedge pattern that looks beautiful on the hourly and 30-minute chart. If this isn't a double top, then this is a cup and handle. Half the base to the handle is 8.25 up from the peak putting our estimates at 381.87 a previous support. GOOD LUCK BYE BYE MARKET>
AMEX:SPYShort
by haydencrann
GDX GOLD MINER may bottom@24 or 21 zone to retest channel.GDX seems to be doing a BIG UPCHANNEL started from the 2016 low & retested at the 2018 low. If this lower channel is to be retested, GDX may bottom at the 24 green zone. This is the most probable since this is also the 2016 VWAP & the FIB 0.618 retracement from 2016 low. However, if you look at the VOLUME PROFILE, then GDX may fall more to the 21 zone to create a divergence, ending wave 1 of wave III. BULLISH longterm: Gold & gold miners will be a good hedge during rising inflation or recession. Every portfolio should have this insurance policy & some other defensives like XLV health, XLP staples & XLU utilities. TLT bonds will also rise during recession while US10Y rates go down in a deflationary environment. GDX may be just in the early stages of the longest wave III rally & has a long way to go. GDXJ Junior miners fell a lot more so I think percentage wise it will have to rise more just like today. Miners tend to be the leading indicator for GOLD. Gold may fall more to the 1670 to 1760 zone. Gold recovering 1800 will be very bullish while GDX reclaiming 30.37 wave 1 top & previous neckline pivot will also be bullish. Not trading advice.
AMEX:GDXLong
by xtremerider8
$SPX breaking downtrendS&P 500 index looks to be finding its footing. It just broke through the 20-day moving average with gusto. The 20-day MA is a good gauge for shorter-term momentum. This all hangs on being able to hold above the 20-day MA, if so, the next test will be at 3,978, which is approximately right where the downtrend line and the 50-day moving average meet. If it can break through this downtrend line and hold above it while making higher highs, we could be saying bye-bye to this bear market. Oddly enough this is also right where the gap that is yet to be filled is. Those of you that don't think stocks can do well during a recession have not read your history books or done your due diligence. I am not in the recession camp though. I am in the "definition for recession is no longer relevant in today's financial world" camp. Yes, based on the old technical textbook definition, 2 negative GDP quarters in a row=recession. I think we are going to still have the next roaring 20s, I'd put my money on a rally/rage into the end of the year then an economic boom when some of the macro and geopolitical bugaboos get solved with time. Happy to discuss and answer questions. Thanks, Tiger
SP:SPXLong
by EBITDAtiger
1
EURCHF breaks below parity. A further drop expectedThe last time this pair dropped below parity, investors chose the CHF over the Euro. However, the SNB was worried about the deflationary aspects of such a move and acted to reverse the move. This time, the fundamentals are more or less the same or different depending on how you interpret it. The Euro zone investors are worried about the block tipping into a recession due to high energy costs. In Germany, for example, regulators have warned that entire industries could come to a halt should Russia fail to reopen the Nordstream 1 pipeline gas flows. The Yamal pipeline has also seen huge drops in gas supplies. With this in mind for Euro fundamentals, the question remains whether the SNB is going to do anything. A stronger CHF is definitely going to the reduce inflationary pressures for Switzerland. In my opinion, I expect the pair to head lower toward the Jan '15 bottom. Risks to trade Historically, strong moves in one direction tend to reverse with similar momentum. The EURO - SWISS bond yield spreads show that the downward move may not be sustainable since FX tends to move in lockstep to spreads The SNB raised rates by a whooping 50bps for the first time in a long time. In typical fashion, Swiss bond yields jumped, some out of negative territory. However, the yields have retraced most of their earlier moves. This may imply that the markets are pricing that the SNB will not raise rates as much in the face of a recession in Europe. This might reduce the strength of the CHF with weakness showing up in the USDCHF. PS: I already have an open position ( This is not trading advice) With that in consideration, I'll be short the Euro for Q3.
Short
by GrizzlyBearBee
Recession concerns dominate the headlinesEUR/USD 🔼 GBP/USD 🔽 AUD/USD 🔼 USD/CAD 🔼 USD/JPY 🔽 USD/CHF 🔽 XAU 🔽 WTI 🔽 As the dollar remained strong, EUR/USD reached a 20-year low of 1.0160 on Wednesday. Amidst predictions of a local recession and an impending energy crisis, the shared currency is among the weakest. The GBP/USD exchange rate fluctuates about 1.1930, under pressure as the UK government crisis intensifies. Over thirty officials resigned, and many others begged Boris Johnson to quit. The 1922 Committee, comprised of Conservative backbenchers, sought to alter the rules that shield PM Johnson from the second vote of no confidence. The FOMC issued the Minutes of its most recent meeting. The memo demonstrated that Federal Reserve officials concurred that rising inflation necessitated restrictive interest rates and are willing to become even more stringent if inflation persists. In addition, most respondents perceived an adverse risk to growth and a "substantial danger" that rising inflation may stay entrenched. The US Federal Reserve opened the door for another 75 basis point rate rise. Wall Street struggled to register gains throughout the day, but significant indices ended higher. Although the FOMC Minutes' hawkish tone, policymakers refrained from discussing a 100 basis point (bps) rate rise, despite committing to do everything necessary to combat inflation. In addition, policymakers abstained from discussing the recession. The yield curve for US Treasuries remains inverted. Currently, the 10-year note yields 2.93 percent, while the 2-year note yields 2.97 percent. Typically, an inverted curve is viewed as an early indicator of a recession. Against the U.S. dollar, commodity-based currencies exhibited minimal movement. The AUD/USD exchange rate is around 0.6780, while the USD/CAD exchange rate is approximately 1.3040. The USD/CHF exchange rate touched a new monthly high of 0.9743, while the USD/JPY pair finished at 135.85. Gold reached a new 2022 low of $1,732.19 per troy ounce before the end of the trading day. The current price of a barrel of WTI crude oil is $98.40. More information on Mitrade website.
NASDAQ:XAU
by Mitrade_official
Bear Flag on 4H chartThere is a bearish divergence in the 4-hour graph of the # BTCUSD , which could bring the price of bitcoin even lower, to 7K levels. For now, what seems is that we are in a Bull trap, and then fall even more, derived from the global financial crisis, uncertainty and possible economic depression that we are about to reach. All cryptocurrencies could fall at abnormally low prices, even some disappear such as LUNA. You have to be very careful and ready for the worst, and try to win and take advantage of this moment. This is only a personal opinion, and should not be taken as a financial advice.
Short
by SrMayoZ
6
SPX - Calculating the odds of a RecessionUnderstanding the possibility and consequences of a recession by determine the strength of U.S Economy using key economic indicators GDP - In order to sustain the economy consumption must be increased meanwhile, Fed trying to tame inflation by implementing policies that will going to reduce the demand. Ergo, The GDP is expected to fall by 1.25 next quarter. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE - Every time a huge trend of layoffs starts 45 days prior to a recession. at this point, No major corporate layoffs have taken place and currently the unemployment rate is at historically low levels. INFLATION RATE - High oil prices, Supply Chain disruption, Hyper inflation risks across the globe and most importantly higher interest rates, There is no doubt that inflation rate will counting rising. CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX - Current level is below 60 which reflects lower consumer confidence which will result in lower consumer spending DOLLAR's PURCHASING POWER - U.S Dollar getting stronger against other fiat currencies, However it's purchasing power is eroding, High interest rates have strengthened the U.S dollar and it's expected to continue rising. 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity - Short term vs Long term treasury inflows, Whenever yield nears the zero or becomes negative then recession follows. Federal Funds Rate - Interest rates are expected to hit 3.75% by the end of this year, There will be several rate hikes in the following months that will result in global economic slowdown. Geopolitical Risk - Disruption of world order has already begun with Russia's Invasion of Ukraine, Growing risks of China and Taiwan conflicts, Shri Lanka's Crisis, Turkey's Hyperinflation risk and if U.S economy crashes then a new world order is imminent. Conclusion: Current Health status of U.S economy is bearable However, projection for upcoming quarter is uncertain, the most optimistic part is low unemployment rates, Financially strong businesses and Strong households with higher savings rate, in turns following rate hikes cannot be associated with an inevitable recession. Health care and defense sectors with high dividend yield stocks are greater alternatives to invest in.
SP:SPX
by EQTSHARES
2
Crude Oil may fall rapidly to the 85 to 92 zone supportCrude oil futures CL1! Is making an ABC zigzag correction & may reach 92 where A=C. 88 is the 0.618 Fib retracement while 85 is the Nov2021 Top. This strong support zone will enable crude oil to retest the blue upchannel base before resuming rally thru 2022. Crude oil is falling due to recesion fears & demand destruction. This should be temporary due to the supply issues created by the invasion & sanctions which will not go away soon. Not trading advice
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by xtremerider8
RUSSELL 2000 respecting FIB levels; ABC may reach 1500 vol zone.The smallcaps Russell 2000 futures RTY1! (also the IWM etf), a leading market indicator like the transports, may complete an A=C correction ending in the volume profile zone near 1500. (IWM seems to be consolidating in tranches of 200…ex…230, 210, 190, now @ 170 & maybe 150 around 4Q2022.) This will complete the final wave 5 of C-wave. As you can see in this weekly chart, Russell 2000 respects impt FIB levels. 2100 zone is Fib 0.236, 1900 is Fib 0.383, the current 1700 zone is Fib 0.50 & the projected 1500 bottom zone will be Fib 0.618, the most likely zone for a reversal. THE BULLISH CASE: if Russell 2000 holds the 1700 zone, the bounce will be very quick due to the 2 LOW VOLUME zones. The target will be 2100 with some consolidation near the 1900 zone. Not trading advice
CME_MINI:RTY1!
by xtremerider8
BTC Daily TA Neutral BullishBTCUSD Daily neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 58% BTC, 42% Cash. *USD hit a 20-year high, Oil, Treasuries and Gold are down, and cryptos and equities are up slightly as global recession fears continue to be exacerbated by higher inflation numbers. The Euro is crashing due in large part to the ECB failing to raise central bank interest rates to combat inflation in time. Key dates: CPI report is published at 830am (EST) on 07/13. Bitcoin has been testing $20k for twenty one sessions now.* Price is currently attempting to break out of a twenty one day consolidation at $20k and if it is able to continue up it would likely form a local Double Bottom (short-term). Volume is Moderate and currently on track to favor buyers for a third consecutive session if it can close today's session in the green. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $21500, this margin is mildly bullish. RSI is currently trending up at 40 as it quickly approaches a test of 42 resistance; if it breaks above 42 resistance then it would likely test the descending trendline from January 2021 at ~48. Stochastic remains bullish for a second consecutive session and is currently trending up at 73 as it closes in on a test of 78 resistance. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up at -1600 as it quickly approaches -1435 resistance. ADX is currently trending down at 42 as Price is pushing higher, this is mildly bullish at the moment. If Price is able to continue up from here then it will likely test $24180 minor resistance (and would confirm a short-term Double Bottom). However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely retest $19417 support before potentially testing the uptrend line from April 2017 at ~$15k for the first time since September 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $19417.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by dailytaguy
2
Consumer Sentiment's Role in Long-Term Buying Opportunities Consumer Sentiment is just one tool for investors to use when choosing whether to buy, sell, add, or trim stocks. But it can be a very useful tool, especially when markets are heavily skewed in one direction as they appear to be today. There have only been four (the three breaches during the 08 crisis I count as one) occurrences in the past when the U.S. consumer sentiment has dipped below the 57.40 mark. As we are currently quickly approaching 57.40 I have taken the liberty to map out the five-year returns of each of the four previous lows in consumer sentiment (assuming a buy-in during the month of the 57.40 breaches). 11/1974: 43.6% five-year return 04/1980: 76.02% five-year return 06/2008: 16.31% five-year return 11/2008: 81.33% five-year return 02/2009: 116.35% five year return 08/2011: 58.77% five-year return Average nominal five-year return on the S&P500 since 1957: roughly 53% Importance of these data? The takeaway here is that historically low consumer sentiment (sub 57.40) has in the past provided great opportunities for patient investors to enter long-term positions in stocks and yield abnormally high returns. Basing an investment decision on one economic metric is not an intelligent strategy, but using consumer sentiment to help time your buying position appears to be an effective method going off of historic price action.
FRED:UMCSENT
by Gooby_Trades