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Recession

SPX Weekly TA Neutral BearishSPX Weekly neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 30% SPX, 70% Cash. *Equity and crypto markets are experiencing a technical relief rally after getting decimated by recession fears and tighter more hawkish monetary policy. Fed Chair JPow testified before the Senate Banking Committee earlier today and the main takeaways were that the Fed will remain committed to raising the fed funds rate expeditiously (above 2.5%) and reducing the balance sheet accordingly to bring Core PCE inflation down from 5%-6% to their longer term target of 2%. He made it a point to acknowledge that financial markets are reacting appropriately to the adjustments in monetary policy and that a soft landing isn't entirely out of reach, which begs the question of how much of a hard landing is priced in if a soft landing is improbable but still possible. Dates to watch: PMI report comes out at 945am (EST) tomorrow morning (06/23/22), Core PCE report at 1230pm (EST) on 06/30/22, CPI report at 830am (EST) on 07/13/22 and FOMC Meeting on 07/26/22-07/27/22.* Price is currently testing $3722 support as the bear market sell off intensifies along with recession fears; if it breaks this support it will likely test the 200 MA at $3540 support for the first time since March 2020. Volume is on track to remain Moderate and could break a three session streak of seller dominance with a green close in this week's session. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $4546, this margin is bullish. RSI is currently trending up at 34.67 after exhibiting bullish divergence by bouncing from 30; the next resistance is at 37.75. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently testing 36.55 with no sign of trough formation. MACD remains bearish and is currently forming a new ATL at -167.02 with no sign of trough formation. ADX is currently trending up slightly at 37 as Price attempts to defend $3722 support, this is neutral at the moment; if ADX begins to form a peak as Price continues to push upward, this would be mildly bullish. If Price is able to defend support at $3722 then it will likely test $3950 minor resistance. However, if Price breaks down below $3722, it will likely test the 200 MA as support at $3540 support for the first time since March 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $3722.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
XLB materials broke 78, the 2021 support; 70 or 57 may be nextThe worst may not be over. A 8% inflation is very hard to fight even with monetary & fiscal policy because the FED could only control the demand side & not the supply side of inflation. With the FED making it very clear that it wont stop until inflation comes down, we may be seeing aggressive rate hikes leading to layoffs & demand destruction in the near future & in turn causing a decline in manufacturing & materials. XLB just lost the 78 (Fib 0.236) impt support since 2021. The next stop to watch very carefully is the Fib 0.383 pivot zone @70. This may come sometime in late August or early September 2022. Make-or-break zone: if 70 fails, then 64 (Fib 0.50) will offer not much support till 57 which is the pre-pandemic zone. This scenario will end the ABC correction sometime in November or in the last Quarter of 2022. Not trading advice.
AMEX:XLBShort
by xtremerider8
SPX Daily TA Neutral BullishSPX Daily neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 51% SPX, 49% Cash. *Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified before the Senate Banking Committee today and to no one's surprise reiterated the Fed's 'reaction function' (comprised of quantitative tightening and a higher federal funds rate (FFR)) working like it's supposed to. He mentioned that the market reacted appropriately by pricing in future rate hikes and repeated that the Fed will continue to move expeditiously (go beyond neutral) to bring Core PCE inflation down from ~5% to their target of 2%; according to Powell beyond neutral is beyond 2.5% FFR, the current FFR target rate is 1.5%-1.75%. With direct endorsement from Powell, the crypto and equity markets are correct in thinking FFR will be at or above 3.5% EOY (75bp July to 2.5%, 50-75bp September to 3%-3.25%, 25-50bp October to 3.25%-3.75%, 25-50bp to 3.5%-4.00%); obviously certain events can expedite or delay this but it seems like markets are beginning to price in the reality of a recession. It is important to remember that by the time the economy recognizes that it is in a recession, financial markets will already be pricing in the road to recovery. In other words, the economy is usually last to feel a recession. That said, it's still to premature to call a bottom (Jim Cramer hasn't told us to sell everything yet) but we could perhaps be in store for a short term rally. PMI report will be released tomorrow at 945am (EST) and Core PCE Inflation report will be released 06/30 at 830am (EST).* Price is currently trending sideways at $3759 after closing above $3706.52 minor support for a second consecutive session. Volume remained Moderate and has favored buyers for three consecutive sessions now. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $3983, this margin is mildly bullish. RSI is currently trending sideways at 38.06 resistance as it attempts to flip it to support. Stochastic remained bullish for a second consecutive session and is currently testing 18.32 resistance. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending sideways at -105 as it continues to form a trough; it would need to break above -81 in order to cross over bullish. ADX is currently trending sideways at 27 as Price continues to decide whether to bounce here at $3706.52 minor support or go down lower, this is neutral at the moment. If Price is able to continue up from here then it will likely retest the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3900 as resistance. However, if Price breaks down below $3706.52 minor support, it will likely retest $3508.14 minor support for the first time since November 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $3706.52.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
ETHUSD Weekly TA Neutral BearishETHUSD Weekly neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 35% ETH, 65% Cash. *(Short-Term) Bottom Watch. Cryptos are seeing a relief rally after a majority of them have now seen 80%+ drawdowns (ETH is down -82% from November 2021 ATH). A more dovish stance from JPow tomorrow may be bullish but with new home purchases going down and inflation continuing to rage on it's going to be hard to call this the bottom.* Price is currently at a critical juncture in that it's testing both the 200 MA and the uptrend line from June 2020 at ~$1200 (in addition to still technically testing the lower trendline of the descending channel from October 2021). Volume is starting off the week a bit slow and is currently Low after being High in last week's session; it is currently on track to favor sellers for twelve consecutive sessions if it manages to close this week in the red. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $3600, this margin is bullish. RSI is currently flatlining for a second consecutive session at the ATL of 25.88; it's still technically testing the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2020 as support at 29.80. Stochastic is currently flatlining at max bottom for a fifth consecutive session. MACD is currently trending down slightly as it prints a new ATL at -493.99 with no signs of trough formation. ADX is currently trending up slightly at 30 as Price continues to break down, this is bearish at the moment. If Price is able to bounce here at the 200 MA + uptrend line from June 2020 ($1200) then it will have to reclaim support of the lower trendline of the descending channel from October 2021 ($1230) in order to test $1407 support-turned-resistance. However, if Price continues to fall here, it will likely formally retest the lower trendline of the descending channel from May 2021 at ~$850 before potentially retesting the uptrend line from January 2017 at ~$300 for the first time since March 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $1230.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by dailytaguy
8
BTCUSD Daily TA Neutral BullishBTC Daily neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 51% BTC, 49% Cash. *Cryptos led stocks this week with a bullish weekend/Juneteenth leading into a bullish day for equities today, they could also just as easily lead them back down with a bearish catalyst this week (Powell testimony, PMI report, higher global inflation numbers, etc.). It's unclear how much further Bitcoin (and cryptos in general) can fall without forcing mass liquidations at already struggling institutions like 3AC, Celsius, Microstrategy and Babel; but to counter this argument, exchanges like FTX have been stepping in to fund liquidations at crypto lenders like Voyager and BlockFi . All that said, Bitcoin has yet to formally retest the uptrend line from April 2017 at ~$15k (last time was September 2020) so it is a scenario to be mindful of in these times of sporadic volatility.* Price is currently trending up at $20900 as it attempts to close above $21335; if this were to happen it would likely continue the rally to retest $24180 minor resistance. Volume remains Moderate and fairly balanced between buyer and seller dominance (indicative of consolidation); it is on track to shrink for a fourth consecutive session which hints at an impending breakout or breakdown. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $23250, this margin is mildly bullish. RSI is currently trending up slightly at 31 as it attempts to reclaim support at the uptrend line from 01/22/22 at 25.60 support. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently trending up at 32 as it tests 29.70 resistance. MACD remains bearish and is currently forming a trough at -2915, a break above -2497 support would likely form a bullish crossover. ADX is currently trending up at 43 and is beginning to form a soft peak as Price is seeing some buying pressure here in this relief rally, this is neutral at the moment but can turn bullish if it begins to trend downward as Price continues up. If Price is able to continue up here and close above $21335 (two consecutive times, so today + tomorrow) then it will likely retest $24180 minor resistance for the first time since December 2020. However, if Price breaks down here and falls back below $19417 support, it will likely retest the uptrend line from April 2017 at ~$15k for the first time since September 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes below) $19417.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by dailytaguy
SPX Daily TA Neutral BullishSPX Daily neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 52% SPX, 48% Cash. *Though we still need one more close above $3706 to confirm a short term bullish reversal, key support lines for other indicators are currently holding up and therefore lending a bullish bias to PA in the short term. JPow is scheduled to testify before Congress tomorrow at 9:30am (EST) and everyone will be listening for any hints of slowing down rate hikes or QT to further boost markets. PMI is scheduled to be released at 9:45am (EST) on 06/23 , if it comes in lower than last month's prepare for another drawdown.* Price is currently bouncing off of $3706.52 minor support as a technical relief rally is underway. Volume is Moderate and currently on track to favor buyers for a second consecutive session if it can close today in the green. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $4017, this margin is mildly bullish. RSI is currently trending up at 39 and is currently testing 38.06 resistance after bouncing off of both uptrend lines from 01/27/22 and August 2015 (at 31) indicating that both uptrends are intact in the short term. Stochastic is currently crossing over bullish and is trending up at 10.82 as it prepares to test 18.32 resistance. MACD remains bearish and is currently forming a trough at -105 as it is still technically testing -76.22 minor support; it would need to break above -76.22 minor support to cross over bullish. ADX is currently trending sideways at 27 as Price is either in a correction or reversal, this is neutral at the moment; if ADX begins to trend down as Price continues up then it would be a bit bullish, but if ADX continues up as Price retreats it would be bearish. If Price is able to continue up here then the next likely target is a test of the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3900. However, if Price falls back down below $3706.52 minor support, it will likely retest $3508 minor support for the first time since November 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes below) $3706.52.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
Look Out for Bull Trap!Looking at weekly QQQ: In the last recession, after confirming it via Sep 2 EMA crossing, we saw within 2 months of that crossing a very nice bull rally week. But it's a trap! We can see it was a trap by waiting for the week to play out & notice that BBPower was very weak, as shown via yellow circles. The bulls now are fatigued from the bears & want to get over this recession already, but make sure you confirm bull momentum is there before going back in, whether you are getting out of shorting via SQQQ or going long with TQQQ. We recently confirmed this recession from the Jun 6 EMA crossing, so be patient.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by roelds
4
Running up that hill - but then?INVESTMENT CONTEXT Analysts sharply raised the probability of a recession, while the Fed announced its support to yet another 75bps rate hike in July A worldwide measure of people’s inflation expectations over the next year was more than 4% in May, up from 2.3% a year ago Russia cut 60% of natural gas supply to Europe via Nord Stream 1 pipeline; cuts are now estimated to have reached 50% to Austria and Germany and 45% to Italy Germany announced it would take emergency measures, including restarting coal-fired power plants, to cushion the impact of lower gas supplies from Russia Turkey offered its support to extending safe grain export corridors from Ukrainian ports A delegation from the IMF arrived in Colombo, Sri Lanka's capital, to discuss a rescue package after the country declared default on its international debt Three Arrows Capital failed to meet demands to provide extra collateral to meet margin calls on digital currency positions PROFZERO'S TAKE Carefully monitoring equities after last week's collapse - not even energy stocks, the clear overperformers of the first 150 days of the year, were spared by the rush to sell. Balancing now Value with Growth may become the major challenge for investors as we head into recession - where the winners of the next decade are dictated Ireland's Finance Minster Paschal Donohoe expressed positive views on the Eurozone, asserting that the balance sheets of the continent's States are in much better shapes then 10 years back, when the contagion of Greece's debt crisis was feared to spill over to Italy and Spain, triggering a spiraling domino effect of defaults. ProfZero unfortunately does not share Mr. Donohoe's optimism. Countries like Italy deeply enjoyed the not-so-implicit backing of the ECB when it came to rolling over government debt in the open market after the investor confidence meltdown in November 2011 - yet no tangible reforms revived the nation's growth and productivity statistics, while public spending rather than targeting infrastructural changes was aimed at winning political approval in the form of heftier unemployment cheques. Taken together, Italy's debt-to-GDP ratio in fact ballooned from 126.5% in 2012 to 150.8% in 2021; inflation may definitely play a role smoothing the nominal debt load, but interest rates are already guiding fixed income traders to bet against the country's solvency, to the point that the ECB had to backtrack on its announcement regarding the end of the EUR 20bn monthly bond-buying program. ProfZero recently reiterated that from an inflation crisis this could easily spiral into a credit downfall; China already had its Evergrande moment. Let's hope the world will suffer a little more piccolo ProfZero often gets asked "Is it the right time to buy?" - The right question would rather be: "Why and what am I buying?" Until we flip our mindset to that, we'll be just chasing trends, ending up being eaten by the sharks PROFONE'S TAKE Following the considerations about the energy of future, ProfOne’s eyes are set on green hydrogen, a promising alternative fuel facing ever-growing demand. Hydrogen has been demonstrated to enjoy potential to replace natural gas in power-hungry industries like cement, steel, ceramics and fertilizers. In the context of de-carbonisation and energy security, exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, governments and energy companies upped their investments in green hydrogen: BP (BP) has taken a 40.5% stake in a USD 30bn green hydrogen production project in Australia, while Spain is bidding to become the first green hydrogen hub in Europe. Amidst growing enthusiasm, ProfOne is curious how producers will deal with the challenges of storage and transportation, other than the extremely high production costs. Today's green hydrogen is based on clean electricity from renewable energy; as such, it is ca. 5x more expensive than grey hydrogen (actually the most common, coming from natural gas without emissions recapture). The energy equation has 3 variables: security, reliability and affordability. To date, all known sources can satisfy but 2 at a time - green hydrogen included
CME:BTC1!
by ProfZero
Five theories of the market's future. All bad short-termI have come up with a few theories in trying to determine where we are and what could happen next. I believe we are in Sub-Millennial wave 1 (began June 1877), Grand Supercycle wave 5 (began March 2009), Supercycle wave 2 (began January 4, 2022), Cycle wave A (January 4), Primary wave 1 (January 4), Intermediate wave 5 (began June 2, 2022), Minor wave 2 (began June 17 at 1030 eastern time). This is the primary assumption as to where we are (and is referenced as 152A152 based on the wave), but I will explore what should occur next if this is true along with timelines. Theory #2 would have us in a wave ending in 152A52. Theory #3 would put us in a wave ending in 152A4A where Primary 3 just ended at 1030 on June 17 and therefore we will move up for a month or so. Theory #4 is that I am very off base in my wave markings while theory #5 would be that Elliott Wave Theory is only good for Monday morning quarterbacking and the Jacksonville Jaguars will win more times than Elliott Wave will. The U.S. economy is on the brink of major trouble and no one appears to be willing to do anything to stop it so theory #1 is the most plausible at this time. Recession is here and will linger for many quarters. The beginning of Theory #1 must consider what could happen with Supercycle wave 2 (referenced as 152). Supercycle wave 1 lasted 3252 trading days and ran from March 2009 until January 2022. The index began at 666.79 and topped at 4818.62 for a total move of 4151.83 and rise over run of 1.277 points per day (move/trading days). Based on similar waves ending in 52, the models agree the most that this downward cycle could last 813 trading days which would put the end of this overall downward trend in March 2025. Even if this is true we would move upward again and possibly near all-time highs before falling down. The three closest end points would have this Supercycle ending after 397 trading days (August 4, 2023), 469 (November 15, 2023) and 542 (February 28, 2024). The median movement of waves ending in 52 will move 44.44% of the predecessor wave. This would put the median length at 1445 trading days (August 2027). While this does not bode well, the length could be much shorter as market and wave intensity continue to get more drastic possibly a byproduct of computer trading, technology, market participation, or other factors. Recent waves ending in 52 have seen wave 1 be 2-4 times greater than wave 2 in length. 813 days would be if wave 1 were 4x greater. More specifically, waves ending in 152 tend to last 30-100% of the length of wave 1 with a median length at 50%. The shortest possible lengths are the aforementioned 469 and 813 trading days. Determining the length of Supercycle wave 2 is only half the battle. Waves ending in 52 tend to retrace or move 32-75% of their wave 1’s movement with a median at 50.17%. This means wave 2 could find its bottom in a range 1344.36-3116.36 below the index’s all-time highs. This would place the bottom between 1702.26-3474.26 with the median bottom at 2401.12. Waves ending in 152 slightly widen the retracement to 25.37-75.67% of the prior wave with a median at 45.71%. This could place the highest bottom at 3765.30 which we have already dropped below. We can provide early estimates of Cycle wave A and Primary wave 1 inside of Theory #1, however, our next focus is on determining the end of Minor wave 2 inside of Intermediate wave 5. The ratios and percentages from the prior two paragraphs are still valid as this wave 152A152 ends in 152 and 52. Minor wave 1 lasted 11 days, dropped 540.64 points with a rise over run of 45.053. The length could be between 3-11 days. The models have the strongest agreement on 3 and 6 days long. Day 1 begins Tuesday June 21. June 23rd is 3 days with 6 occurring on June 28. A move between 25-75% of wave 1 could see a quick gain for the index of 137.16-409.10. This could place the top between 3774.03-4045.97 with a median at 3883.99. If theory #1 proves true, we will likely move quickly over the next week with a top less than 4045.97. This would still provide quick and large gains. Theory #1 is most likely wrong or off by a wave if we drop below 3636.87 before moving above 3770. This theory is the most logical at the moment but I will publish my other theories over the coming days. Once a theory works, we will move forward with it and continue to provide updates going forward.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
Is NIFTY50 in correction or crash mode?Update on last 4 NIFTY Predictions : 4/4 Correct with precise targets. EMA150 is very curious. In the 4 drawdowns of bear markets, it has touched when it was a crash It bounced off from around 25% when it was just a correction Sep 2022 - Looks like make or break. Coincidentally US Recession is more or less confirmed that month since June quarter GDP data is out. (2 Q -ve GDP is Recession) EMA200 and EMA100 were conclusively broken or untouched at monthly for me to make any assumptions.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by NiftyPredictor
ETHUSD Daily TA BearishETH/USD Daily bearish. Recommended ratio: 5% ETH, 95% Cash. *The House of Cards is continuing to fall in leveraged crypto land with 3AC, Celsius and Babel all either pausing or limiting withdrawals/redemptions; not to mention Microstrategy quickly approaching a margin call on their leverage long BTC position that may have actually been hit when BTC touched $17600. All that said, there is officially blood in the streets, so to all my investors out there, I'd say it's safe to start Dollar Cost Averaging in to some of your favorite shitcoins (with a long term horizon in mind).* Price is currently trending down at $985 after briefly touching $881 as cryptos continue to see selling pressure; $775.83 is the next support that was last tested (as support) in February 2018, if it falls below this level cryptos (as a whole) will likely be wiped out and have to start anew with a whole new paradigm of value. Volume is High and is currently on track to favor sellers in today's session if it can close in the red. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $1400 which coincides with the lower trendline of the descending channel from October 2021. RSI is currently trending down at 19.41 as it quickly approaches a test of the ATL at 17.42, a break below this level would help confirm that cryptos are essentially due for a wipeout cleansing. Stochastic regressed to a bearish crossover in today's session and is currently trending down at 2.72 as it hovers above max bottom. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending down at -257 with no sign of trough formation as it has officially lost -197.34 support (the next support is at -318.82). ADX is currently trending up at 50 as Price continues to fall, this is bearish. If Price is able to bounce here then it will likely test the lower trendline of the descending channel from October 2021 at ~$1300 as resistance. However, if Price continues to fall it will likely formally test $775.83 support. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $1300.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by dailytaguy
5
3.5 years to recover 2008 recessionIt took about 3.5 years, from the last top in late 2007, to cross all relevant moving averages in early 2011, for us to confirm all the market bottoms were in. During that time, more than half of the market was lost in its last bottom compared to its last top. Expect same or worse in this 2022 recession, as more things will pop in this everything bubble. The current Triple EMA (TEMA) has only dipped about the same as during the pandemic, so we have only just begun the slow drop. Take care & keep looking for sectors, equities & ETNs that perform well in recessions, including the upcoming Bitcoin (BTC) Short ETF : BITI
AMEX:SPYShort
by roelds
BTCUSD Daily TA Cautiously BearishBTCUSD Daily cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 15% BTC, 85% Cash. *Equity and crypto markets are bouncing today off of speculation that the Fed may be able to ring in inflation without a recession; this is highly speculative and is happening at a critical support level for BTC ($20k) which is important for bulls to defend in order to avoid mass liquidations from large institutionally levered players like Microstrategy (this would cause an even larger downward cascade in PA).* Price is currently hovering at $20500 as bulls are attempting to prevent it from breaking $20k to formally test $19417 support. Volume is currently Moderate and is on track to favor buyers in today's session if it can close in the green; this would be bullish going into the weekend. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $28k, this margin is mildly bullish. RSI is currently trending up slight at 22 after being rejected by the uptrend line from 01/22/22 (as resistance) at 25.60 resistance; if it can stay above 25.60 for two consecutive sessions it will help confirm that the uptrend line from 01/22/22 is still intact. Stochastic remains bullish (barely) for a second consecutive session as it is trending up slightly at 5 after retesting max bottom. MACD remains bearish and is currently testing -2497 minor support with no signs of trough formation; the next support is the ATL at -5089. ADX is currently trending up at 36 as Price continues to fall, this is bearish. If Price is able to bounce here then it will likely test $24180 minor resistance. However, if Price continues to break down here, it will likely formally test $19417 support for the first time since breaking out above it in December 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $24180.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by dailytaguy
2
2022 - Not the Recession We Want, but the Recession We NeedIn response to the Federal Reserve increasing interest rates yet again, the markets - both in stocks and crypto (and housing soon to come) - have been dropping pretty hard lately. For crypto investors out there: this is the sound of mainstream money from the general public leaving the space - they came for the party, then left after the party was over. The craze that we saw in 20’-21’ was really the result of NFT projects targeting people - largely cooped up indoors due to the pandemic - with a hype-based marketing strategy that seemingly resonated very strongly. Out of all the NFT projects that could have reached #1, it was the Bored Apes Yacht Club: it doesn’t take an art expert (although I do like to fancy myself as one at times) to see what BAYC’s success “means” - it’s obviously targeted at people who’s primary ethos is boredom…and exclusivity. In a way, BAYC is the perfect sign of the times - people bored of the lockdown, the rise of digital marketing and remote work, our reliance on artificial scarcity to determine “value”, and Web2 marketing/hype and investing practices all rolled into one. There’s a reason why even the Ethereum team (most visible Vitalik) renounced BAYC as something that ETH “wasn’t intended” to do. Adjective-Animal JPGs basically missed the point of why Web3 was created from the very beginning. Now that the Feds are tightening up their money supply (finally, after having printed endless amounts of it during the last few years) the “casino” market is about to come to an end. But just because the market is in a downturn doesn’t automatically mean that everything will be bad…there are lots of opportunities still there; they just look different from what we’re used to seeing up until now. For some of us out there, we’ve been waiting for this moment for a very long time. If you might have been thinking about changing or trying new things out in your life, now is probably the best time to do it because in a few months the world as we know it will probably get flipped on its head and most things will become unrecognizable anyway. During recessions people’s priorities tend to shift away from speculative assets and into savings; short-term investments into long-term; people shopping for interest rates on savings rather than loan accounts; and so on. Those who adapt will do well - but it will require a shift in mindset that may feel strange and unfamiliar. People say that “everyone” suffers during a recession but I tend to disagree - in any given market there are always winners and losers; money is game of how the idea of “value” compares itself to the price of goods around us. It is always relative to each other, in other words - and there are always ways to get ahead if you’re willing to look at the details close enough. - The Market Itself is a Bubble One thing to keep in mind that 80%+ of people don't own any stocks/crypto, so all the panic, hype, and emotional reactions you see in the media/social media is already a bubble of its own. Most people only see the prices of the things that they interact with every day - thing most people are seeing right now is that they see that inflation is cutting into their ability to survive day to day - and that something needs to be done. Until crypto products address these sorts of “bigger issues” of the public directly, it will always follow the general markets rather than setting the tone. The reality is that most people in living in United States were already used to massive inflation - the costs of living was already on the rise since 12’ onward (especially in housing, education, and healthcare - typically the 3 biggest expenses for the average person out there) and people were already getting squeezed out every year anyway. In the upcoming months there will be a lot of people with lots of money complaining about how “hard” things are for them, but I don’t expect there will be any sympathy for them - in fact, they will probably be the target for the next ridicule cycle if anything, really. What that means is that the economy was already hell for most people during the "good times" - inflation was already well out of control but we simply failed to acknowledge it. On a personal level, I lost more friends (especially artists) than I care to talk about: many were forced to move away from the places they loved because the costs of simply existing in certain areas became untenable. A lot of people I knew gave up on having kids, gave up on their dreams, went back living with their parents - worse case, some of them literally ended up on the streets simply because they were unable to pay their rent. People who have known me long enough know that prior to getting into crypto I was heavily involved with housing politics through the YIMBY movement - though this downturn is hurting my portfolio too, it's hard for me to think that a market crash would be a bad thing long-term, because not only would it would lessen the pearl-clutching incentives/behaviors of NIMBYs, it should also bring down costs of everything as a whole. And that is good for everybody, not just the few who happen to be lucky enough to get their hands on a certain type of ERCs. So while it may be unpleasant to see the numbers in your accounts go down, this is the correction that many have been waiting for - the correction that we need. Once the housing market stops going up, there’s less reason (and ability) for NIMBYs to defend their imaginary gains against the tides of supply and demand - and in the long run, the market should equalize itself to where it should be. What Web3 needs more of is people with a mindset of abundance rather than of scarcity - and this will become more important as the crypto ecosystem starts to mature. Web3 is not only a movement of its own, but it’s also a repudiation of the bad habits of the Wall Street/Web2 model - which has, over time, become a ponzi scheme of its own. Low interest loans allowed startups, politicians, and scammers to “fundraise” their way out of trouble: No money to pay for things we need? No problem - just print more! Company not profitable? No problem - just raise your Series Z to keep it going just a little bit longer! Ponzi schemes do actually “work” on some level, after all - as long as the market keeps on going up.As we’ve seen with what happened with LUNA/3AC - which was entirely backed on the fantasy of Bitcoin going up forever and forever - there’s going to be a backlash against the stock market too, so that’s something to keep an eye out for. How did Bernie Madoff get away with what he did for over 20 years? The market was always going up. Now that the tide is pulling, we’ll get to see who was swimming naked underneath this whole time. - It’s Time for the King (Bitcoin) to Serve its People Bitcoin is obviously the first of its kind and currently the market leader in the crypto space as we speak - but for how long? While Ethereum is moving towards proof-of-stake as its primary economic engine (taking most of its tokens along with it), Bitcoin leaned hard into the proof-of-work + scarcity model in the last few years and never looked back. Given that the store-of-value idea is not unique to any coin - and that the only “value” Bitcoin currently provides is potential speculative gains (which are on its way out as staking rewards start to look more appealing during a recession) and a strange retro-nostalgia aesthetic for the pre-08’ eras (which will gradually fade over time), it’s hard to see it surviving for the long term. More broadly speaking, “it was there first” is exactly the type of NIMBY argument that the market will “correct” in the upcoming recession, taking down a multitude of asset classes that have been relying on that mentality up until this point. Ethereum is attempting to escape that fate through their “merge” (we’ll see if they’re successful in doing that this summer), but Bitcoin has basically signed the pact to go down with the ship. In a few months, it could potentially be the only proof-of-work system left on the charts, quite literally. I’ve always found it odd that a lot of Bitcoin fans aren’t too shy about calling their coin of choice “King” - which is actually a fairly new phenomenon that came during the 16’-18’ run, not before. (The dev community was much purer back then.) This phrase clashes directly with their supposed support for decentralization and democratization of money - the cognitive dissonance there is massive, to say the least. (Since there is no on-chain governance in BTC systems a small group of miners usually end up controlling everything on the protocol level behind closed doors, btw.) There’s something very disturbing about the glint you see in their eyes when they claim that Bitcoin holders (not anyone else, obviously) will become the most “powerful” people in the world in a few years - I don’t think anyone outside of that bubble really believes that - especially now. This is the year 2022 and we don’t really have the time to idolize or fantasize the absolute powers of monarchy, even in imaginary forms. Web3 will rely on the transparency of ledgers to establish partnerships of mutual benefit, enforced by precision and reliability of smart contracts - but this requires us to get better at collaboration, rather than moving unilaterally and monopolistically, as Web2 has typically done. As is the case with modern monarchies - the royalty can either choose to step down or be taken down forcibly - one or the other will happen, either way. BTC has largely been left out of the development talks of Web3 systems as a whole, since they refused to fork out their systems to make compatibility improvements - it will eventually get left behind as the world continues to move without them. Luckily this will happen through the simple process of numbers going up and down - rather than having to deal with the fallout of it in the real-world itself. - What’s Coming Next for Web3? The typical pattern that the economy goes through during periods of recession is that they switch from a speculative to a savings mindset - when both the banks and the government spends all their money and have literally nothing left, what do they do? Raise interest rates to incentivize people to put money back in. As far as anyone can tell, the fundamentals of this relationship hasn’t changed and is not likely to have done so during this cycle either. In crypto this means that there will be less demand for NFT lotteries and higher demand for coins that offer staking rewards as a benefit - undoubtedly there will be more and more people searching for the best rates out there as the Fed starts to raise its rates even further in order to keep inflation under control. Interest rates has been at 0% for so long that most people probably forgot that it was a thing - staking was a hard sell even during last year’s run since news of its developments were largely out-blasted by the NFT mania as a whole. But as we start transitioning into a different phase of the economy, people’s priorities are likely to shift. Some coins that are well positioned to take advantage of this shift are Tezos, Algorand, Cardano, NANO, and many of the other coins that have been proof-of-stake from the very beginning. Ethereum and Dogecoin both have plans on switching over to proof-of-stake in the future (ETH supposedly in August, Dogecoin’s date is unknown), but the elephant in the room that nobody is talking about right now is the fact that Bitcoin doesn’t have the means (nor the plans to) transition into anything that is likely to be relevant in the near future. Time will tell, but we’ll see what happens over the course of the next few months, next few years, since what happens is likely to be a crucial turning point for the industry as a whole. Now that mainstream money has left the space, both whales and HODLers are waiting for the right time to reorganize their portfolios and get back in. With fiat money out of the picture, we’re likely to see more independent movement between coins and clear winners and losers emerge within the ecosystem rather than always moving in parallel as it has up until now. What comes out in the aftermath of all of this will be a very different crypto landscape - possibly with the “flippening” happening during the midst of it as well. As one last reminder, your portfolio going down is not necessarily a bad thing, if the goods that you pay for day-to-day gets, on average, cheaper. So I hope people don’t lose sight of the bigger picture and sees the opportunities and benefits that can come out of this transition as a whole. Money is about to get smarter: something that people have been demanding for a very long time. Well, if that’s what you’re looking for it’s coming right for us - hope people can recognize it when it’s here.
GEMINI:XTZUSDLong
by RyanTanaka
SPX Daily TA Cautiously BearishSPX Daily cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 10% SPX, 90% Cash. *Gains from yesterday's FOMC announcement about a 75 bp rate hike were all but given back today in what was an apparent Bull Trap. With June's PMI report coming 06/23 and July's CPI report coming 07/13, it's hard to imagine that the inflation situation is going to get better when SNB just raised their policy rate for the first time since 2007 , the BOE sees domestic inflation hitting 11% in October and still only raised their bank rate by 25 bp (albeit for a fifth consecutive time the BOE bank rate sits at only 1.25%) today, the ECB has somehow managed to keep their bank rate at -0.50 amidst all of this (it has remained unchanged since 2019) and will meet 07/21 to announce a planned 25 bp bank rate increase, and the BOJ is set to announce (in approx 5 hours) whether or not they will slow down QE and begin hiking their policy rates too . All that said, a global recession is very much so on the table and it currently seems as if that's what it will take for equity and crypto markets to bottom (financial markets usually rise and fall before the economy does due to their futures dependency).* Price is currently trending down at $3666 and is still technically testing $3706 support. Volume remains Moderate (High) and after favoring sellers in today's session has no favored sellers in eight of the past ten sessions. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $4105, this margin is mildly bullish. RSI is currently testing the uptrend line from 01/27/22, as well as the uptrend line from August 2015, at ~30. Stochastic is currently crossing over bullish at 6.50 but is trending down slightly and may regress to a bearish crossover in tomorrow's session if it cannot find buying momentum; the next resistance is at 18.32 and support at max bottom. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending down at 95 with no signs of trough formation as it is quickly breaking away from -76.22 minor support. ADX is currently trending up at 25 as Price continues to fall, this is bearish. If Price is able bounce here at $3706 minor support then it will likely aim to retest the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3900 as resistance. However, if Price continues to break down here, it will likely retest $3508 minor support for the first time since November 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $3706.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
2