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Recession

BTC, the unprecedented crash(avoid becoming the exit liquidity)Bitcoin's price action can be best described by its tendency to create numerous fake S&R levels & S&D zones to confuse retail traders. Now that it's testing the previous cycle high & 200wma(which has historically signaled the cycle bottom), retail can fall once again into the trap of consistently buying the dip on each low. With the inflation soaring, interest rates at levels the likes of which has not been seen in a long time, and a looming recession, I can't see neither 20k nor 200wma as the cycle bottom . Bitcoin will most likely visit its origin at around 10k range. Next stop is the flip level at 4k. Each and every rally to supply areas is a fake rally in my opinion. Significant price action needs significant shift in sentiment & attitude of retail traders. Sub 15k is easily in the cards for now. Lastly, don't become the big player's exit liquidity at these tough times in the world. Invest wisely. (FaN-)
CME:BTC1!Short
by FaN-
5
BTCUSD Daily TA Cautiously BearishBTCUSD Daily cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 15% BTC, 85% Cash. *Markets seemed to like the Fed's decision to go with a 75 bp rate hike, but with the next PMI report arriving on June 23rd it's unclear how long this excitement will last. If PMI comes in higher than last month and by a larger percentage than the previous report, it would imply that inflation is still raging and markets will likely react negatively; if it comes in higher than last month but by a lesser percentage than the previous report, it will likely signal that inflation is slowing and markets may react negatively but perhaps more briefly than in the previous scenario; and if it somehow comes in lower than it did in May we may see a stronger rally to end the month. The next CPI report is due July 13th and the next FOMC meeting is July 26-27. Vlad the Not so Great is likely going to continue escalating the war in Ukraine, China's 'Zero-Covid' Policy may or may not come to a halt come Autumn when it is election time for the CCP, and the situation between China/Taiwan/Japan and the South and East China Sea is still a wildcard for the end of 2022. Lots to be vigilant about so stay safe.* Price is currently forming a Bull Flag bottom in effort to reclaim $24180 minor support and avoid formally testing $19417 support. Volume remains high and is currently on track to favor buyers if it can close this session in the green; buyers reacted positively to the FOMC decision to raise the Fed Funds Rate by 75 bps. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $31150, this margin is mildly bullish at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 25.60 support as it attempts to reclaim support at the uptrend line form 01/22/22. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently trending sideways at max bottom; though it can coast in the "bearish autobahn zone" for some time, a bullish crossover is likely pending. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending down at -2037; the next support (minor) is at -2497 and the next resistance -1435 (still very loosely can act as support with a bounce here). ADX is currently trending up at 32 as Price is attempting to find a bottom, this is mildly bearish. If Price is able to continue the move upward it will likely test $24180 minor resistance before potentially going higher to test the 50/50 uptrend line from August 2017 at $29k. However, if Price breaks down here then it will likely test $19417 support. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $24180.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by dailytaguy
Amazon Pricing in a Great Recession...This is simply an observation: The yearly return on Amazon (AMZN) is approaching the yearly return it had during the Great Recession. Are markets becoming too fearful? Are we truly as worse off now as we were during the financial collapse in 2008? History has shown that more likely than not, ten years from now most people won't even remember why there was panic selling in June 2022. How many people remember why the stock market crashed in May 2010, August 2011, or August 2015? The VIX was much higher in each of these months than it is now.
NASDAQ:AMZN
by SpyMasterTrades
BTC/USD Daily TA Cautiously BearishBTC/USD Daily cautiously bearish. *BTC has finally broken down below the 50/50 uptrend line from April 2017 and now risks falling to retest the official uptrend line from April 2017 (for the first time since October 2020) at $15k-$19k. All eyes are on the FOMC meeting this Wednesday when the Fed will decide whether to go through with another 50bp rate hike or be even more dovish and go for 75bp (or even 100bp) in attempt to slow down inflation. As unfortunate as it may be, cryptos and equities will continue to be hit the hardest (highest amount of speculation here) until the Fed is able to ring in inflation. If we end up with a hard landing (and recession), this will likely signify that the bottom is in for cryptos and equities and the next focus can be on how to revitalize growth.* Recommended ratio: 5% BTC, 95% Cash. Price broke down below the 50/50 uptrend line from April 2017 after testing it as support for 30 consecutive sessions and is now testing $24180 minor support (currently trending down at $23k). Volume is High in today's session marked by a 15% sell off; it's currently on track to favor sellers for seven consecutive sessions if it can close today in the red. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at the 50 MA (~$32k), this margin is mildly bullish. RSI is currently testing the uptrend line from 01/22/22 at 25.60 support. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently testing max bottom, where it can potentially coast in the "bearish autobahn zone" for a while. MACD crossed over bearish in today's session at -868 minor resistance, it is currently trending down at -1331 and fast approaching -1435 support. ADX is currently trending up at 27 as Price continues to fall, this is bearish. If Price is able to bounce here at $24180 minor support, it will likely trade sideways until it can test the 50/50 uptrend line from April 2017 as resistance at $29k or the descending trendline from November 2021 at $24k-$29k. However, if Price continues to break down here then it will likely test $19417 support for the first time since breaking out above it in December 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $24180.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by dailytaguy
USDX Daily TA Cautiously BullishUSDX Daily cautiously bullish. *Equities are down, cryptos are down, commodities are down (yes Gold included), real estate/housing market down, inflation up and the US dollar (as well as Russian ruble)... up. The Fed is expected to announce anywhere from a 50bp-100bp rate hike this Wednesday if they want to be in line with their promise to go "beyond neutral" to ring in still growing inflation; 50bp would likely assuage markets in the short term and stall the dollar, whereas 75bp+ would likely send markets lower and keep pushing up the dollar.* Recommended ratio: 90% USDX, 10% cash. Price is currently in Discovery as it is currently printing a new ATH at $105.05 amidst a big push back into treasuries (10y/30y). Volume remains Moderate (high) and is currently on track to favor buyers for a fourth consecutive session if it can close in the green in today's session. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $101.36, this margin is mildly bearish. RSI is currently breaking above 63.78 and is trending up at 68.60 as it fast approaches overbought territory. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently on the verge of testing max top (where it can potentially coast in the bullish "autobahn zone" for a while). MACD remains bullish for a second consecutive session and is currently trending up at 0.39, the next resistance is at 0.46; if it blows past 0.46, it will likely test the uptrend line from August 2020 at around 0.80 resistance. ADX is currently trending up at 23 as Price continues to rise, this is mildly bullish and becomes very bullish if it can maintain this same correlation above 25. If Price is able to continue in its Discovery, the next psychological level to watch for is $110. However, if Price retreats from here then it will likely test $103.77 support. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes below) $103.77.
PEPPERSTONE:USDX
by dailytaguy
Will Bitcoin go to $20K in 6 months?Bitcoin is in a very dangerous (bearish) situation by each quantitative metric in financial analysis -technical, fundamental and manipulative-. The mid-trend is clearly bearish, with a ~33 RSI in the weekly chart, and a ~46 RSI in the monthly chart, as well as bearish moving averages (210, 70, 14), and the price under them. The price is experiencing some corrections and volatility around the $30K-$28K support, and even if its still reliable a pull-back an a restart of a 2 type trend (bullish) the odds are more bearish (65% vs 35% - would I say without demos). Based on the TTW analysis, the most probable scenario is that BTC will be having movements between $28K and $35k for some weeks or months, making a lot of retail traders to enter in the wrong break points and institutionals to wait for the price to go to support levels around $20K at the end of the year. This is the most probable scenario, but each active quant fund manager should have its own muti-strategy bots for each occasion , including the beginning of a new type 2 trend. I am using financial engineering to short BTC futures in different key points, and I am bullish in the long-run, but all the analysis indicates that in the next months the most probable scenario is a decrease in demand of this security token, so it would be more convenient to implement an active, not a passive investment approach.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by blockmas
GOLD/USD Daily TA Cautiously BullishGOLD/USD Daily cautiously bullish. *As the risk of stagflation becoming full blown recession gets higher every month, equities and cryptos are falling, USD is getting stronger, energy prices are coming back down (in the short term) and Gold is going up.* Recommended ratio: 75% Gold, 25% Cash. Price is currently retesting $1867 minor resistance is it inches closer to testing the 50 MA at ~$1884 (as resistance). Volume remains Moderate (high) and has favored buyers in three of the past four sessions as Price continues to defend the 200 MA as support. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $1824, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 54, the next resistance is at 67.24. Stochastic crossed over bullish in Friday's session and is currently trending up at 71; the next resistance is at 88.41. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up at -4.93 as it is in the midst of breaking out above -10.84; the next resistance (minor) is at 10.56 (which should coincide with the uptrend line from March 2021). ADX is currently beginning to form a soft trough at 13 as Price continues to consolidate, this is neutral at the moment. If Price is able to close above $1867 minor resistance one more time, it will likely test the 50 MA at ~$1884 as resistance before potentially retesting $1910 minor resistance. However, if Price is rejected by $1867 minor resistance it will likely retest the 50 MA at ~$1840 before potentially retesting the uptrend line from April 2020 at ~$1800. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes below) $1867.
G
by dailytaguy
Finding the bottomElliot Wave analysis shows that BTC is in an impulsive bearish move of C wave of weekly ABC correction. I think 20kish bottom from a technical perspective has a higher probability, but the current economic environment especially in the US does not incline into that option. The newest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report of May 2022 that just released yesterday is not a good news. US Inflation keeps on rising at 8.6%, the highest since 41 years of US economic history. U.S Dollar will be force to be taken from the market circulation by raising interest rates. Economic recession is inevitable and could kill significant amount of businesses, lowering people purchasing power, and forcing them to only allocate money for primary needs spending. Don't know how much is enough in raising interest rates in order to control inflation without hurting too much on the economy. In this kind of economic condition, there is a significant probability that BTC could fall to 12k level, although I do not inclined into it, but let see what the market provide us in the near future.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by derahmanov
1-5-2022 was the beginning of the bear market. Here's the data. This is 12 hours of data. We are seeing 48 fifteen minute periods of data. This is a recent example of a market change. 1-5-2022 was the start of the bear market; definitely nothing to do with the J6 hearings....... Please understand the CICO report is showing period by period data. Meaning, if you have your charts set to monthly you will see monthly visuals based on the user input. If the user input is 100 and you are looking at monthly charts, you are looking at 100 months of data and will definitely not show the moment the market shifts. If you want to see the instant a market shifts, you will need much lower periods. I recommend 15 minute charts as a good starting point.
AMEX:SPY
by Johnny_Nickles
SPX - Update on the S&P500 last moveHello traders, Today on SPX, a lot of movement with the announcement of the CPI index report, which equals to 8.6%....wHaT a SuRpriSEeee!! even though we know it is supposed to be even higher....anyway... all investor are afraid aff, of course, and here are the result...! I show you in the analysis below how I approach the last move with the Elliott Waves analysis Wave green (b) retracement on (a) Wave orange C extension Wave white 3 extension Wave white 5 extension
OANDA:SPX500USD
by ModTrades
1
SPX - Insight on the S&P500 last move and the INCOMING trendHello traders, The SPX has showed us a beautiful bump on the last objective I made on my previous post. Nevertheless, it has decided to go and reach lower objectives, and IMO we should go finally hit the 38.2 objectives at the price $4052 . I have more objectives at a lower prices which are The green zone: 4042/4023 50%: 4007 61.8%: 3961 Therefore, after hitting one of those objectives, we will go back in a Bull trend to enter in our C of the ABC // I show you exactly how I found them with the Fibonacci tools in the screenshots below. And go check my other ides on SPX where you can understand also better where we at. . . BTW, I am selling a PDF , regrouping all the knowledge I have found on Elliott Waves , from the greatest analysts books, into a clear, simple and explicative way, Contact me in private, or in comment if you don't have enough reputation point if you are interested . . Don't hesitate to comment and check my other ideas
OANDA:SPX500USD
by ModTrades
3