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Recession

End of Super Cycles for Bitcoin & S&P 500My guess on how the 2 supercycles of bitcoin and S&P 500 will likely end. Masses attention on the stock market and cryptos are fading BUT there is still money to be burned and I would expect a victorious new ATH for both the stock market and the crypto to take place somewhere next year! 1. The whole internet is so aware of shorting the market that is "entering recession" due to rise in interest rates and inflation pressures. While at the same time Robinhood gave access to all its members to short. 2. There is still money sitting on the sidelines waiting for a positive turn ( a new dopamine cycle) so to be invested in the market and crypto ( the final burn/trap). The self-fulling prophecy of Bitcoin to 100k has to come "true" prob not 100 but close to 90k so everybody will be joining the last part of the cycle in a super euphoric state. More money traped for decades to come. Aside from crypto a lot of retail is traped on many SPACS/IPOs, if at any given moment there is a relief rally they will put more in order to break even their losses. 3. Covid is still a thing but is slowly fading away... no way in my perspective to allow a market crash while we are returning to "normal", all that money being printed in case of a market crash will not be "burned/spent", we did not even have a proper X-mas yet :) 4. Our heroes Musk+Bezos+Dr Burry warned us of a market crash ( check my previous post about it) 5. Do you think Fed will take the blame for the market crash? All the above statements are out of my head. This is a more philosophical approach rather than a concrete fundamental and technical one, BUT as everybody expects a market crash soon I like to be on the other side...IMO the market will crash when nobody will be thinking about it!!! when inflation will be down, and when Covid will no longer be in our "head". "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" Look first/Then Leap
SP:SPX
by Philoslother
3
BTC, in a bearish trend until, probably, $31K.BTC has broken key support levels, and is within a clearly visible bearish trend, under the SMA 210, 70, & 14, with an under 50 RSI and a MACD bearish cross. The next relevant support is around $30K. There are still odds that this is a false break out, so active traders and their bots should be prepared for possible long and short positions. There is a strong correlation with equity markets, being the main international stock indices at the border of a correction/recession. Never, since 2008, the RSI levels in weekly and monthly charts has been so low in the main indices. Ahead us, historical weeks of volatility.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by blockmas
S&P500 ProShares UntraPro Short OpportunityS&P 500 has had a tough go in Q1 2022 and looks to continue it's correction given the broader macro-environment and economic headwinds. Upside opportunity if a market correction similar to the black swan event in March of 2020 would be greater than 1,000%... even a smaller correction as the Fed tightens in the short-term has potential to deliver phenomenal gains. Looking at OBV and moving averages, the downside to SPXU is quite manageable relative to the upside. Because this is an inverse relationship to the S&P, it's shorting the S&P but it is LONGING $SPXU.
AMEX:SPXULong
by UnknownUnicorn20630062
ISM Manufacturing Index has peakedThe ISM manufacturing index or purchasing managers' index is considered a key indicator of the state of the U.S. economy. It indicates the level of demand for products by measuring the amount of ordering activity at the nation's factories. The PMI number, which is announced on the first business day of each month, can greatly influence investor and business confidence. An index of more than 50 indicates an expansion in the manufacturing segment of the economy in comparison with the previous month while a reading of 50 indicates no change and a reading below 50 suggests a contraction of the manufacturing sector. The ISM will be something to watch during the next couple of month giving us indications on the health of the economy
MShort
by CarpeMomentum
5
The Great Reset of 2022In the light of a recession with the GDP seeing negative growth in Q1 and a tighter monetary policy from Fed as well as rate hikes from Fed does the high profile growth stocks see a slow down. The main buyer of these high profile growth stocks is NASDAQ where many of these stocks see a bearish market (e.g. Meta Platforms, Zoom and Netflix) as investors go from high profile growth stocks to safer investments such as commodities and real estate in fear of a recession. Also consumer spending is lower than before as consumers does not buy multiple streaming services, delivery services or technology in general but instead safe money and keep e.g. dollar instead of stocks and cryptocurrencies. This negative consumer spending causes these high profile growth stocks to see a slow down in growth as their balance sheets are negative. NASDAQ may see correction towards the green part of the green cloud but after that a more drastic drop off as the price crossed underneath the green cloud. To support this claim does the EMA and the RSI are both showing this correction is likely to happen. In tune with inversion of the yield curve may the NASDAQ see negative movements like it did during the last times this happened in: 2001 and 2007 right before the Dot com bubble and the Great Recession respectively.
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by vf_investment
Oil Price and financial crashes This chart shows the correlation between the oil price and the different financial crashes. During the melt up to a financial crash does the price of sky rocket and during the aftermath does the price crash. The oil price of today only matches the oil price of the Russian energy crisis and the Great Recession. Seen in this chart is a slight pull back onto further continuation upwards as the war in Ukraine continues does the oil price continue upwards. The supply chain crisis causes economies into a recession and this is also a reason to believe an increase in oil prices as oil is a stability.
TVC:USOILLong
by vf_investment
Recession will push S&P500 down further - Bearish Stock MarketLooking at historic recession losses of the S&P 500 and given the current market conditions pointing to a recession one has can derive more downward movement for the stock market. Looking at the S&P 500 there is still a lot of room downwards to an overall 20-40% correction down into the recession from the last ATH. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- !! Donations via TradingView coins also help me a great deal at posting more free trading content and signals here !!
SP:SPXShort
by CarpeMomentum
Heading into Recession - Stock Market to Correct Further DownShiller S&P 500 P/E Ratio is a golden standard to evaluate the stock market Looking at the Shiller S&P 500 P/E Ratio we can clearly see the market was overvalued and is now in the beginning of a correction down. I expect this trend to continue downwards and then have the usual reflexive rebound from oversold conditions and then tripple waterfall down (the final leg down). Instead of dividing by the earnings of one year (see chart above), this ratio divides the price of the S&P 500 index by the average inflation-adjusted earnings of the previous 10 years. The ratio is also known as the Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio (CAPE Ratio), the Shiller PE Ratio, or the P/E10. What Does the Shiller PE Tell You? The Shiller P/E gives investors a read on whether the stock market—as represented by the S&P 500—is overvalued or undervalued. The higher the Shiller P/E ratio, the more overvalued a market. For context, over more than 100 years, the average and median Shiller P/E ratio has been around 15 or 16, spiking up significantly higher often before market crashes. But the all-time high in the Shiller P/E ratio was December 1999, when the figure reached 44.19. This high coincided with the dot-com driven rally in tech stocks of the late 1990s. Based in part on that record high ratio, Shiller correctly predicted that the dot-com frenzy would turn out to be a bubble. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- !! Donations via TradingView coins also help me a great deal at posting more free trading content and signals here !!
SP:SPXShort
by CarpeMomentum
EURUSD Outlook for May 2022...My analysis for EURUSD on the monthly timeframe. Includes some simple fundamental perspective but if you want to discuss fundamentals in depth feel free to comment below. Aside from that, there's not much the dollar can do to beat anticipations unless liquidity of the dollar really tightens. In that scenario, the dollar will really strengthen and we could see parity, but I don't think the Fed will tolerate that or even risk the possibility. It's more of a possibility that something breaks in the U.S. economy, which is the case when every recession has happened in the U.S., so it would be sudden. Aside from that the Euro is moving well economically too, maybe a little less enthusiasm towards it than the dollar and more of a risk to it's bullish scenario comes from Russia, energy and slowdown in the EU as a result of sanctions and high prices. Either way, technicals on the lower timeframes to follow...
by UnknownUnicorn15362357
US02Y­-US10Y 🎯Wells Fargo Chart of the Week 🎯💰🤔Hey Fam. 😊🙏Just wanted to share this information with you all.. I found it very interesting.. This was a chart of week that Wells Fargo shared on there site. I thought it was interesting how they saw a 4 week inversion roughly 43 weeks on average in regards to our last seven Recessions before they happened (Shaded Areas on chart) Before a US recession officially started.. which is roughly about 10 months..🎯💰🤔👌🙏😊
TVC:US02YEducation
by robinstallsforyou2
USDCAD - Long | Closed Oil LongTaking a risk here with USDCAD to the long side, as it looks like a great risk-reward setup. This trade implies some a bias to the downside in oil. As previous posts will confirm, I have been bullish on oil; however - the recent failed move at $109, represents the second lower-high within a bearish structure. As such, I am comfortable with the expectation that oil needs some time to figure out a direction. That's all for now. May the Lord bless you! -Chief
Long
by ChiefMacro
US STOCKS should fall especially tech stocksUs markets I am a 14-year-old demo trader in England don’t take this as finical advise I am still doing my gcses get a guru or professional to tell you what to. Market preview Going into this trading week stocks should continue to fall during this bear market and talks of a recession increase as the possibility of the fed being able to perform a soft landing because of their aggressive strategy to combat inflation. The phrase ‘melt up’ was used by CNN to show that stocks may soar before the inventible crash. This could occur because of investors believe that the strong us economy will prevail causing stocks to soar in price creating FOMO and a trend reversal is occurring. But because of basic market fundamentals such as high inflation a slowing economy and high energy costs caused by the Ukrainian Russian war will continue to fuel this bear market. Another reason why this bear market is here to stay is because of an inverted yield curve which Is where short term debt pays out more than long term suggests a bear market is here to stay even though it is an argued point that an inverted yield curve means a recession it does still resemble tough time for markets. Over the next two years, stocks have a high chance of having a melt-up. But Goldman Sachs still believes there is a 35 % chance of a recession. Stocks and predictions what I think (DYR) • NVDA (short) • TWTR(long) • AAPL(short) • AMD(short) • TSLA(neutral) Us tech stocks have suffered recently with the Nasdaq dropping 4.19% in the last month with stocks such as NVDA dropping 23.87% in the last month and AAPL dropping 4.95% in the last month suggesting a strong bear market for tech stocks which shows us high growth stocks such as NVDA have been deeply affected because of rising interest rates and investor not willing to risk large amounts during this current market turbulence. Going into this week stocks should continue to drop especially high-growth stocks. The semiconductor producer NVDA will be very interesting to see because it is a high growth stock hitting its all-time highest at 329.85 in November 2021. NVDA gained over 121.1% in 2020 when gaming interest spiked during lockdown which is NVDAs main source of revenue. This tells us that even during bear markets the stock can be resilient so it must bear for another reason that it has lost over 33.85% this YTD. there are many reasons of why the stock could have fallen from monetary policy tightening, the fed aggressive strategy to target inflation, and fears of recession. But I believe it is because of soaring energy prices which I mentioned in my last idea. Energy costs can account for 20% to 30% of semiconductor producer’s energy costs. Energy prices have risen more than 250% since January, according to industry group Oil & Gas UK affecting NVDA’s earnings deeply. TSLA currently is in a very weird position its earnings where though the roof with a 87% rise in revenues which blew the stock up to around the 1070-1080 levels which was last trader around early April. that shows us that the stock has respected the current bear market decreasing 4.9% YTD but has risen 6.48% in the last 3 months so it is a very volatile stock that will be perfect for traders with larger accounts to trade. But I would never open a short on TSLA always seems too dangerous for me its such a good stock any with Elon Musk being able to control the stock just by making tweet always seems bad to me. TSLA does seem to be in a down trend trading below the 200 MA and 50 MA. Between a rock and a hard place, Elon Musk is trying to perform an LBO on TWTR as the management crew has deployed a poison pill to try to combat the unwanted takeover it could mean if Elon's takeover is rejected it could lead for him to sell his 9% stake in the company causing the stock price to fall. this uncertainty for TWTR could lead other investors into selling the stock. TWTRs competition with TikTok gaining in popularity and with cheaper ad prices with better exposure could mean less demand for TWTR ads which is their main source of revenue which could affect their earnings which is in 4 days’ time. even though the stock does have strong price momentum the company’s fundamental aspects aren’t as strong as its competitors. TWTR has a bullish chart pattern and other technical aspects which should lead to a increase in price .Even though the stock has had a recent rally it should still respect the current bear market in the longer term. over the next 5 trading days, I believe TWTR will rise but still fluctuate between the 55-45 price range even though fundamental aspects disagree. To conclude twitter is a very uncertain stock it all depends on if Elon’s takeover is successful. Elon himself said he’s “not sure” if the bid will be taken by the board. But he apparently has a plan b. if worst comes to worst and he sells his 9.2% stake in TWTR the stock will crumble. But he does seem passionate about making Twitter a private company. AAPL should continue to fall as on Wednesday the death cross occurred where the 50-day moving average crosses the 200-day moving average as well as the fears of a recession coming which will cut consumer spending which will cause cuts in AAPLs revenues. Which will dampen AAPLs earnings which is in 4 days which is expected to be worse than last quarter which will cause investors to sell decreasing the share price. Technical aspects are giving strong sell signals. MAs are giving off strong sell signals as well as the MACD giving sell signals To conclude US stocks will continue to fall as fears of a recession is coming with the fed trying to perform a soft landing that has never been done before. An inverted yield curve and rising interest rates and US ten-year bond yields rising all fuel this current bear market where stocks are suffering. Over the next 5 trading days, stocks will continue to fall with a chance of a rally being possible because of people ‘buying the dip’. This is not financial advice don’t be dumb.
AMEX:SPYShort
by harrybergin
Disney's Troubled Waters$DIS has been in a slow decline since March 2021 ATH. Recent political winds have shifted and Florida is rescinding the "Reedy Creek" special purpose district that's been in place since 1967 following partisan policymaking. The most recent declines this week are not indicative of the much broader weakening of consumer sentiment, more a doubling down and reinforcement of the economic headwinds corporations are facing in light of rampant inflation and a Federal Reserve that is no longer able to accomodate loose monetary policies. Given the likelihood of central banks taking dramatic steps in the coming months and major economic indicators screaming correction, it's not surprising to see companies like Disney & Netflix show significant weakness as consumers curtail spending. This appears to be more of a leading indicator of corporate valuations coming down... similar to the declines at the outset of 2020 before the pandemic really took hold of the global economy. Expect $DIS to test the 200 EMA around $91 in the next two months. Further bearish price action is expected to the March 2020 $79 level. Depending on the broader market's direction and significant recession risk, as the Fed begins divesting assets from its balance sheets along with rate hikes not seen in over a decade... Disney may see even further retraction given its reliance on retail consumer spending behaviors. Recent relevant market pullbacks: 1. Dot.com bubble w/ ~65% retracement 2. Housing bubble with a near 60% retracement prior to Federal Reserve quantitative easing and near zero interest rates.
NYSE:DISShort
by UnknownUnicorn20630062