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Recession

Part 2) Don't Fight The FED. The Yield Curve is Fine.All over financial news we're being told that the yield curve is inverting, spreads are flattening, the recession clock is ticking, there's impending doom around every corner. CNBC, Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance, The Wall Street Journal, Forbes, The Economist, you pick your favorite news source and they're talking about 2's and 10's, 10's and 30's, it's Armageddon!!! How about we look at the actual indicator the FED uses to predict U.S. Recessions. The Federal Reserve uses the 10-year/3-month term spread as it's most reliable indicator to predict U.S. Recessions. The charts posted above come directly from the Federal Reserve of New York's website. According to the FED's data the likelihood of a recession in the next 12 months is about 6%. Here is the link to the website: www.newyorkfed.org Link to the interactive charts: www.newyorkfed.org Link to FAQ's: www.newyorkfed.org The team at All Star Charts did an interesting post on this topic just recently. I suggest you take a look. allstarcharts.com Food for thought. Thanks for reading. Good Luck to All!!
TVC:US10YEducation
by Breakout_Charts
BTC could be bullish in the next 12-18 monthsBTC is going through a stage 1 trend (lateral), and could start a stage 2 trend (bullish) in the next months, staying above the 210, 70 & 14 MAs, and holding strong RSI and MACD numbers in weekly charts. In terms of chartism, it's going through the most bearish zones of a long-term uptrend channel. Fundamentally talking, the global economic landscape could "see" tokenized assets as a recession-proof investment product, inlcuding, in a long-term basis, institutional investors, who could join the blokcchain space via fiatised assets such as ETFs, private-ended funds or mutual funds. In general, BTC is in a adequate position in order to ahieve Alpha in a 12-18 months horizon.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by blockmas
My bet against Yields and for the Stock MarketsThe US government bonds are currently on everyone's lips. Wherever you listen, you hear the word recession and people sometimes talk about the "big crash". This is due to the currently enormously rising interest rate curve. However, I think that we saw our peak in 10-year government bonds yesterday and I think that the 10-year yield curve will now start falling. This is all of a technical nature and should now lead to a sell off to the 61.8% Fibonacci level which should bring us back to the 1% levels. This is enormously good for the stock markets and especially for technology stocks. I think that we can still expect a big surprise from the central bank and that exactly what very few expect will happen. I'm betting against government bonds and for that I'm betting everything on growth stocks over the next 2 years. This is no financial advice.
TVC:US10YShort
by RT_Trading_
2D Copper chart shows that Dr. Copper is still in down trendCopper is an indicator of world economy, during recession period it goes down along with the stock market. Copper peaked in last few days while the stock market around the world was falling or extremely volatile. However in 2 Days time frame it does clearly shows a pin bar which was a Lower High in series of Lower Lows and Lower Highs. I think copper may continue its down trend if the war situation starts affecting world economy.
Short
by spranav
The Anatomy of a Bear MarketRecently, a lot of people have been talking about the possibility of a multi-year recession. I don't think that is a clear depiction of the current situation, but I am aware that the idea stems from a lack of understanding of bear market structures, and influence of market sentiment. So in this post, I'll be going over Ken Fishers' rules and conditions that must be met in order for a market to be clarified as a bear market, and how you can best position yourself to minimize downside risk. This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only. The Four Rules of a Bear Market - The first rule is the two percent rule: a bear market typically declines by about 2% per month. - Sometimes it declines by more than 2%, sometimes it’s less—but overall and on average, bear markets don’t often begin with the sharp, sudden drop some anticipate. - If a bear does drop by more than 2% per month, there’s often a market counter-rally that can provide better opportunities for investors to sell. - The three month rule: This rule advocates waiting three months after you suspect a peak has happened before calling a bear market. - Rather than trying to guess when a market top might come, this rule ensures one has passed before taking defensive investment action. - It provides a window of time to assess fundamental investment data, market action and possible bear market drivers. - I often see lots of people call market tops and bottoms, and time the market perfectly, but it needs to be clearly understood that this isn't the right approach to understanding the market. - Next, we have the the two-thirds / one-third rule. - About one-third of the stock market’s decline occurs in the first two-thirds of a bear’s duration, and about two-thirds of the decline occurs in the final one-third. - This was the case in the bear market caused by the financial crisis, as well as many other bear markets including that of 1973. - Combining this with the three month rule, it also implies that if you have identified that a market has indeed begun its bear run, you might be better off taking profits/losses on your position, managing risk by increasing your cash holdings, and buying back when capitulation has happened. - And finally, we have the 18-month rule. - While bull market durations vary considerably, statistics demonstrate that the average bear market duration, since 1946, has only been 16 months. - Very few in modern history last fully two years or longer. - If you’re engaging a defensive investment strategy, you probably shouldn’t bet on one lasting so long. - The longer a bear market runs, the more likely you’re waiting too long to re-invest. - If you remain bearish for longer than 18 months, you may miss out on the rocket-like market ride that is almost always the beginning of the next bull run. - Missing that can be very costly for investors. So are we currently in a bear market? - Based on the four rules above, there's a high probability that we are not in a bear market. - Since I've uploaded this post, the market has bounced swiftly off the 100 moving average on the weekly. - Just as the covid-induced drop of March 2020 turned out to be a 'buy the dip' opportunity, as opposed to the beginning of a bear market, the sharp correction we have seen since the beginning of this year goes against the first rule of the bear market. - It’s critical not to call a bear market falsely, and this is a huge mistake that a lot of people make. - If the market is just going through a correction (a short, sentiment-driven downturn of -10% to -20%), you’re better off riding through it and maintaining your portfolio. - It is impossible to accurately and consistently time market corrections because of the way they behave. - A correction can start for any reason or no reason. So if you believe that the economy is strong, and the fundamentals of the company you invest in remain solid, there's no need to sell off your holdings, especially when your actions are motivated by fear. Conclusion Bull market corrections are not fun, but it's important as an investor for you to be able to distinguish bear markets/recessions from bull market corrections. Choosing to undertake a bear market investment strategy and go defensive should be rare and shouldn’t be done by gut feel or by your neighbor’s opinion. Exiting the market is among the biggest investment risks you can take—if you’re wrong and you have a need for portfolio growth, missing bull market returns can be extremely costly. If you like this educational post, please make sure to like, and follow for more quality content! If you have any questions or comments, feel free to comment below! :)
TVC:SPXEducation
by Michael_Wang_Official
53
BNB Chart with Whole World SHORTLY; There is no problem with the market's current situation. Most crypto charts are doing well. I chose to explain it with BNB TA. I don't talk about it for a while. I want to talk with a different perspective and then we can see a lot more for the future. Again, eyes should be on Asia-Pacific's political events. I want to talk with different perspectives to the whole world.then we can apply it whole market include oil, gold, silver etc. (China-Taiwan-India-Japan-Australia) WHY EYES SHOULD BE ON ASIA-PACIFIC? (with a simple and short way to explain) Most reports now (and in previously shared reports), say, China's GDP will reach approximately $33-40 Trillion by 2030. HSBC Long-Term Global GDP Rankings by 2030 (first 3)(which is published September 2018) -China -USA -India Lowy Institute World GDP Forecast by 2030 (first 3) : -China -USA -India Standard Chartered Largest Economies by 2030 (first 3) -China -USA -India etc.. Please scroll up and read results of reports again (first 3) because I think you didn't understand it, yet. So, I don't believe Pentagon (which annual budget of $752.9 billion in 2022) will let it be. If USA will let it -I think won't- China's Silk Road (which is starts in China to (with Bering Strait) USA, even Africa! you confused, right? Most institutions (and current drawed maps) think this road only starts in China, ended in England-Rotterdam but it's not) take everything on the world.. I end this with a quote "you become what you understand" -Soren Kierkegaard. Take Care Everyone. ATTENTION: This is only my forecast, don't take this as any financial advice, it's just my research and opinion. always do your own research! not financial advice.
Long
by AGhostTrader
Mortgage Rates Explode Higher at Second Fastest Rate in HistoryThe monthly chart for US 30-year mortgage rates is exploding higher at a rate not seen since the 1970s. This chart shows that monthly rates are following the 3rd standard deviation higher, which is an extremely rare rate of increase. The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is shown at the bottom of this chart. The CCI is a momentum oscillator used in technical analysis primarily to identify overbought and oversold levels by measuring an instrument's variations away from its statistical mean. It is currently at the second highest level ever (on the monthly chart), second only to the 1973 Oil Crisis. That crisis caused a bear market between January 1973 and December 1974 that affected all the major stock markets in the world. It was one of the worst stock market downturns since the Great Depression. The stock market lost 45% of its value during this time. How confident are you that the Federal Reserve will be successful at engineering a soft landing? How do you define a 'soft landing'?
FRED:MORTGAGE30US
by SpyMasterTrades
1
SPX at critical resistance point right now.Just a very quick TradingView exclusive update on the PSX. Today we are at a critical point and i believe it is more likely this creates selling pressure to at least visit the 100-day MA before continuing a decline. this could be a slow decline or very fast if we head into a crash. We need to be watchin if the FED reverses policy which they may not considering inflation. There is a Russia scape goat right now though i could see as a potential to be blamed for many of our own politically stupid economic moves over the decades. If the FED turns around, starts printing, lending increases, government spends like drunken sailors, expect the SPX to rise nominally but he question becomes, what does it buy you? if those things increase at a faster rate when what does the stock matter? i think commodities are going to win in this long term inflation battle along with this war happening. At least for now as government could create rationing orders that could smash profits from companies and even put them out of business. This is going to be a wild next ten years. Stay Classy TradingView.
SP:SPXShort
by DefyingFinance
Recession Risk IncreasingWidespread economic data reflecting unhealthy market indicating significant risk of total market correction (stagflation/recession) 1. Inflation (CPI, PPI) sharly rising at levels not seen in 4 decades 2. Leading indicator: New Home Sales declining, with increasing housing supply 3. Lagging Indicator: Durable Goods month over month and year over year declined 4. Commodity prices rising sharply including oil closing in on all time high 5. Money supply at volumes far above sustainable levels 6.Overnight Reverse Repo currently at $1.7 Trillion 7. Gold monthly chart reflects bullish cup and handle pattern formed from 2011 to present with price target of $2.5k Labor market is realizing extreme shortage, with decreasing labor availability in a trend that the BLS has identified for years. Competition for scarce labor increasing as there are more jobs than total workforce available to fill them even at 100% employment. This trend is predicted to continue for the remainder of this decade. Federal Reserve lacks credibility with current regime losing ability to sway markets. FOMC communicated tightening policies with incremental 25 bps rate hike and the markets responded with the healthiest week of growth in over 2 years.
TVC:US10Y
by UnknownUnicorn20630062
Fed's Catch-22A Catch-22 is a problem for which the only solution is denied by a circumstance inherent in the problem or by a rule. This is exactly the problem the Federal Reserve faces. Historic inflation continues to accelerate, becoming embedded into the market's expectations and risking a spiral effect In order to stop rapid inflation, and achieve its mandate of price stability, the Fed must raise interest rates as rapidly as inflation is rising. The Fed cannot raise interest rates as rapidly as would be needed to slow rapid inflation because it would rapidly begin to freeze liquidity in the corporate bond market. Rapid tightening would spillover to corporate earnings, asset prices, consumer borrowing and spending, economic growth and ultimately employment, countering the Fed's mandate of maintaining stable employment. The last time that investment grade corporate bond prices fell below their monthly EMA ribbon support was in March 2020, when the Fed made emergency purchases of corporate bond ETFs to ensure liquidity. Now the bond prices are falling below their monthly EMA ribbon support and the Fed is taking the exact opposite measure by calling for accelerated rate hikes. Is it possible to avoid a recession at this point? Only time will tell but the charts seem to doubt it.
AMEX:LQD
by SpyMasterTrades
4
TLT BreakThe iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) tracks an index composed of U.S. Treasury bonds with maturities greater than twenty years. The price of TLT goes down as interest on 20+ year U.S. treasuries goes up. High inflation is driving interest rates ever higher . If inflation does not slow soon, a decades-long trend could end, as this chart is warning. The monthly exponential moving average (EMA) ribbons have experienced their worse violation in the fund's 20 year history. Typically the monthly EMA ribbons act as very strong long term support. The lower 55 month EMA band can act as a low risk to reward long entry. The price at which the monthly candle closes is determinative. Fortunately, there is roughly an 80% chance that the 20-year bull trend in the price of TLT will hold in March 2022. (This probability comes from the standard deviation from the monthly mean). So for now, at least, the trend is likely to continue. However, the chart suggests that the decades-long trend is dangerously close to breaking.
NASDAQ:TLT
by SpyMasterTrades
4
SPX/USOIL Presenting A Market Signal?Patterns present themselves in the strangest of ways. Sometimes they mean something and other times they mean nothing. There is a fine line between pattern and coincidence. Here is the S&P-500 with USOIL to compare previous cycles. As the chart presents, each time there has been a significant deviation from the current trend in USOIL it has resulted in a Recession. I have marked the last 3 times in the chart. In total it has happened 6 times since the 1970s. We are merely down 14% at its bottom in comparison to 20-50% in the past. Pay close attention to each divergence shown in the chart. Is this time going to be different?
SP:SPX
by NoOneWhoIsSomeone
3
Good day to as any to welcome the next recession- yield curvesThe US5Y looks ready to break above the US10Y rate for bonds , signaling an inversion of the yield curve, the number one precursor to each recession in the US. The 10 year is sitting 3/1000 of a percent higher right now. When they cross I expect the market to turn red today. The breakout of the US10Y from its cup and handle pattern dating back to June 2019 marked the top of the bull run, and when it backtested and bounced up the selling accelerated. You can learn a lot comparing the US10Y and the SPY or QQQ and how they relate. Anyways, US10Y killed the bull, maybe now it causes a recession and brings back the bears. Happy trading!
TVC:US05YShort
by BrianVS
Bitcoin crash? Recession prediction: The first predicted bottom would likely be at the 30k range. The price may in the weeks to come go through this support line but in an evidential recession would the first likely bottom be at 30k. This bottom would likely be formed after the war in Ukraine as more people are selling Bitcoin in exchange for Hryvnia or Rubel. The second likely bottom would be predicted to be 20k as the past support/resistance zone is at this level. This second level is likely caused by the FED www.federalreserve.gov increasing the interest rate and pulling back on the free money given by the pandemic. The third bottom and the absolute bottom may be seen at 10k range, as this is similar to the 85% decrease in Bitcoin price seen in the 2018 Bitcoin crash. This bottom is likely caused by the supply chain issues, the higher interest rate as well as the energy prices rising. Energy prices tend to be rising (seen in a graph created from www.bloombergquint.com ) which tells us that high energy prices are correlated to recession. On Chain data: There may be strong indications to trade Bitcoin in the short term but in the long term would the fundamentals of Bitcoin suggest the different as the Exchange netflow is negative (see in chart below) and this would predict that traders are send Bitcoin to cold storages to proof for a predicted recession. People then believe in Bitcoin long term but in the short term is their Bitcoin safer in a cold storage. In the case of the Bitcoin miners are they not mining Bitcoin and they are also waiting on a more profitable position to mine Bitcoin. This can be seen in the Miners Reserve Chart and this decrease in mining is caused by the energy prices rising. paste.pics paste.pics paste.pics
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by vf_investment
1
The predicted market crash... Can it get any worse? Yes!The predicted market crash... Can it get any worse? well, yes! •Short since $4731 (closed some of my shorts today)↘️🔻 written on: 19:16 Thursday, February 24th, 2022 Central European Time ( CET ) S&P 500 Index (and the entire market with it) The TA: We broke out of the rising wedge on the 18th of January. We retested the wedge as resistance on January 18th. The target price of the wedge breakout towards the downside was roughly $4111.96, which hit today. The chart has now formed a head and shoulders pattern, which we broke the neckline off today. We will probably retest the neckline. If we can't break that resistance, the Head and Shoulders is confirmed following a 3735 target. We also broke our long term trendline that we had as support since the beginning of the recovery of the 2020 covid crash (I will make a seperate idea on that one). The squeeze momentum indicator, by Lazybear just turned red and we have a bearish monthly MACD cross. •Almost every indicator suggests that we are overvalued in the long term. 94% correlation between the Nasdaq 100 in the 15 years to today, and the 15 years to 2000. The S&P500 shows a 95% correlation. We all know what happened during 2000s, the markets collapsed. shiller PE ratio is currently sitting at 34.27 on the day of writing this (the last time I updated this, it was sitting at 40.14 so it has come down a bit, but we still have a long way to go). The mean is at 16.92 and the median is at 15.87. 34.27/16.88*100≈ 203% 203-100= 103% This means that we are possibly 103% overvalued. •The warren buffet indicator is telling us that we are strongly overvalued. The indicator sits at a 195% Market value to GDP ratio. The exponential trendline suggests that a Market Value to GDP ratio of 120% to be fairly valued. We are 51% higher than the long-term trendline. (this was 71% the last time) What is going on in the world? •Russia vs Ukraine war. This is very bad news and I hope that everyone stays safe. Money is way less important then the lives of innocent people. No one wants war. The Russian index crashed 45%, before rebounding during the trading session. The indexes in Europe also got crushed, just like the s&p500. We recovered the losses in the late trading hours which is very impressive. •The number of Nasdaq stocks that have hit a 52-week low now dwarfs even that of the 2000 dot-com bubble and global financial crisis. It looks like the high multiple, tech stock bubble might have already burst. The s&p500 is just lagging behind and can go much lower then the current valuations. A ton of stocks; large or mid cap, value or growth have been absolutely devastated since I started writing about a crash: •The FED is going to increase its interest rates, because the inflation is getting out of hand. 7.5% is the highest we have seen since the 1980s. We don’t know the ammount and the number of times that they are going to increase the interest rates, but 50 pivot points in march looks realistic to me. When the interest are getting an increase, it works like an anker on the stock market. And because we have so much debt right now, this could lead to even more pain then what we have seen. You don't want a hawkish FED as your opponent. Historically, the inflation has grown slowly, but during this and last year the inflation went through the roof. •Members of congress and people in the government (clearly insiders: looking at you nancy pelosi) are not allowed to own stocks anymore very soon? Correct me if I am wrong on this one. •The Canadian real estate bubble is so big, that even the mother of all crashes can’t fix it. The composite benchmark, (a.k.a. a typical home) was $798,200 in December, up 27.8% from a year before. It is at an all-time high for both price and annual growth. betterdwelling.com Mortgage lenders are about to get destroyd. Just looking at the current market and where rates are going is a recipe for disaster. In the last few years, they had between 2-3x regular refinance volume. Leaving a large pool of borrowers who will not to refinance for at leat 3-5 years. •Mortgage rates have risen almost a full 1% in just the last 2 months, will likely raise another 1% by End Of Year. This will further slow demand. Housing market starting to show signs of cooling. Worst case scenarios is housing values drop even more which will cause cash out refinances to dry up as well. Lenders are starting to lay people off. I have heard some shops are reporting declines. •canadian tv reminding people that bank deposits are ensured. (The Royale Bank of Canada made this advertisement as well). •billionaire investors have a lot of cash ontheir hands. •Michael Burry and a ton of other famous investors predict that the markets will collapse. Warren Buffett has stopped buying new shares. Michael burry has sold his positions •Palantir warns people of a black swan event. •energy crisis in China and Europe. A lot of factory's in China are shutting down or slowing down because they have no power. This only got worse today since Russia attacked Ukraine, the oil prices peaked at $105.74. Every time that the oil prices reached prices above $100, we entered a recession after that. With the current sanctions against Russia, we can expect commodities like gas and oil to rise even further. Which could lead to even more inflation. •reverse repo has never been this high. 1,738.322 billion usd (that is more then a trillion!!!). The Fed's reverse repo facility allows big institutions - mostly big banks and money-market mutual funds - to buy securities from the Fed with an agreement to sell them back to the central bank for a specified price at a specific time. •Jpegs are getting sold for millions of dollars, which looks like the Dutch tulips bubble to me. •Prices have been sky-high in the last months for almost everything, could we be in an everything bubble? •With the old measurements, CPI / Inflation is above 15%, that is just as bad as the top in 1982 (instead of 7.5%). •fibonacci extension tells us that $4875.56 could be the end. (the top is $4818.62, for now. So I my prediction was 1.16% off) •stablecoin Tether has been in trouble for a long time. When tether crashes, everything crashes with it. 80% of BTC’s volume goes through Tether. So when Tether falls, Bitcoin falls and when Bitcoin falls, everything falls with it. •supply chain issues and shortages for almost everything. •Indexes like XRT with 1200% short interests (GME is in this index) •historic records amount of margin: When everyone is using a lot of margin in the markets, things can change very quickly for the worse, because their positions can get liquidated. If people with leveraged long-positions starts to get liquidated, more people start to get liquidated since the price has gone down even more. etc. etc. etc. (until the market has fully crashed). Not only that, retail investors are going to panic sell in such an event. the only thing that needs to happen for a trend reversal is a bad event. Like seriously, since when can retail investors use more then 100x leverage? •We printed a ton of money during the COVID-19 period. When we had the 2020 march crash, the stock market recovered insanely fast, even when the economy was falling. The recovery happened because we printed so much money to support the company's (not because the businesses were performing great). --> •The markets are not based on fundamentals anymore: 1 million+ people dead due to covid? No problem, the market goes up by 30%. Millions of people getting unemployed in the US and the rest of the world? Not a problem, the market goes up by another 30%. Businesses declaring bankruptcy? It didn't matter. we just kept on going up. Almost every business was experiencing massive losses while their stock price was skyrocketing. The money printing led to massive inflation. The supply chain issues made this even worse. We have to pay for our mistakes now. The FED has to force a recession. •Eliott waves suggest that a big crash is going to happen. We are in wave 5 in the long term chart from 2008 until now (and possibly the 100 year chart as well). So the next wave will be a market correction. "The bubble": massive credit to u/BigTechEqualsValud: www.reddit.com "It is clear stocks are in a massive bubble based on their Price to Sale (P/S valuation). Warren Buffett stated that his favorite means of valuing stock was the stock market capitalization to GDP ratio. Below is a chart for this metric. As you can see, the stock market today is as overvalued relative to the economy as it was at the peak of the 1999 Tech Mania. r/wallstreetbets - We are in Tech Bubble 2.0, but it's actually the everything bubble So stocks are overvalued based on the most reliable corporate data point (revenues) and they are also overvalued relative to the economy. Scratch that, they're not overvalued... they're trading at 1999-Tech Bubble insanity levels. This time the FED has created a bubble in everything. A "risk-free rate" of return against which ALL risk assets are valued. Comparing to 1999 tech bubble, 2008 housing market bubble, this will be considered the 2022 Digitial Currency/EV bubble. Look at the 10-20 year charts for any automotive company. It is not pretty. So what makes Rivian and LCID worth more than GM or Toyota? Nothing, since its a bubble. I will rule out Tesla on this one since we know damn well they make money, have an incredible CEO, and produce something tangible unlike these others. Tesla is still overvalued and it will go down with the digital currency/ev crash, but most likely not as hard as other competitors". •Evergrande defaulted on its debt and is now restructuring, we will have to see how that goes. But its still massively in debt and the bonds were never payed according to dr Metzler. DMSA and dr Metzler has a class action lawsuit against Evergrande to file them for bankruptcy. This •Evergrande is still one of the biggest real estate developers, but people seem to forget about this very dangerous problem. Evergrande still has to pay 305 billion USD. They haven't even paid of 1% of their debt. So who are the biggest bagholders of the $305B in bad bonds? --> There are several American and Canadian banks that Evergrande ows money to: First we've got the Royale Bank of Canada which has $46B in evergrande bonds with a Evergrande is not the only Chinese property business with huge amounts of debt. A ton of other Chinese property company’s have defaulted so far. Some of them are now bankrupt. If you were wondering why there was that weird after hours - the stock dropped 64% during AH in one day, but then they fixed the "glitch" and the price went back up. RBC looked worthless and this was just the real view of the bank's financial state when the bonds hit zero. The media told us that the bonds from November 10th were payed, however DMSA says otherwise. Dr . Metzler, the owner of DMSA bought Evergrande bonds because he had a suspicion that the bond payments were not made. So he knew he wouldn’t get his money back. He just wanted to proof his theory. So we could be being lied to (however I’m not a fan of conspiracy theory’s) THE BONDS WERE NOT PAYED!!! Conclusion: the TA looks bad and so does everything going on in the world right now. If this ends up happening it will be a fantastic buying opportunity. The S&p500 could go higher to the 5500s (which won’t happen in my opinion), but a crash is inevitable. It has already correcIf it doesn't happen this year, then it will probably happen in the next 2 years. Its a ticking time bomb. Its just a matter of time when all of this comes together and It *could* happen very, very soon. Do you really want to risk a 10-20% return when the market could fall 50% or more? You can cash out now and buy back 2x the amount of the shares after the crash. And get 2.5x the amount of shares that you could buy now. (this probably doesn’t make a lot of sense anymore. If you bought normal stocks, you are already down like 50% so it doesn’t make a lot of sense to sell with such a big loss). Buy great deals like PayPal or similair stocks that are already down more then 50%
TVC:SPXShort
by Y_Duursma
2
QQQ Retracement Projection: Is $180 Realistic?$QQQ is heavily weighted towards risk-on technologies. Inflation is soaring, dovish Fed with loose monetary policies is not sustainable in the face of CPI/PPI/Commodities/etcetera reflecting an unhealthy market with price increases not seen in 40 years. Previous significant correction benchmarks: 1. 2020 global pandemic from local high to bottom took 30 days with a -30% retracement. The recovery was limited in depth and and time due to fast stimulus response by government that has led to part of this inflation challenge 2. 2008 housing market bubble took 390 days to bottom out with approx 55% retracement 3. 2001 dot.com took 930 days to bottom with 84% retrace Of note, the dot.com recovery for NASDAQ took 15 years and was supported by unfettered government quantitative easing. The long-term channel bottom for QQQ aligns with the 55% correction level that took 390 days for the housing market. QQQ Price Target at this level is approx. $180
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by UnknownUnicorn20630062