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Recovery

Weekly Preview: Good News Keep Coming!The market is coming back to its previous bullish trend, two proves of that: - Nasdaq is already in neutral territory YTD - Volatility is around 48%, well below its peaks - Some companies, specially American technology are regaining ground effectively sooner than expected which is also good news. The two pillars within this environment that are working are two: 1./ Central bank aid (this was expected to work immediately) Stimulus from central banks and governments has brought confidence to the market 2./ Covid-19 numbers Trend of better daily numbers of new cases are consolidating and some businesses are starting to reopen - Bearing in mind this, the market doesn’t react to an economy, it foresees what the economy will do and act base on that. Current Context: March was harmful, April is better with consolidation taking place. Even times are going better than expected with numbers improving faster than expected. Again, Nasdaq has already recovered those YTD loses and this is important because normally it brings the rest of indexes with it. First the DOJ, which represents more classic companies with high dividends, and after Europe. Then, short term facts are being positive too. 1. Gilead Sciences has reported successful treatment of Covid patients and can be a ray of hope. 2. American attitude, they are focused in reopening the economy and that creates big expectations. To finish, we´ll have some economic indicators with more government meetings that will still bring more confident to the market and strengthen this faster than expected recovery.
FX:NAS100Long
by PepeMafia
Worse-than-expected economic data implies S&P 500 downturnRetail sales data, industrial production data, and capacity utilization data for March all came in quite a bit worse than analyst forecasts today. The Empire State manufacturing index for April also hit a record low, falling nearly 40 points more than expected. Bankruptcies are also piling up this week at a much faster pace than last week. Publicly traded companies that declared bankruptcy include FTR , HOSS , and LKSD . Also at imminent bankruptcy risk are JCP , CLUB , and I . Lots of private companies have also gone into bankruptcy, including the XFL, True Religion, FoodFirst, Fairway, Pace Industries, Longview Power, and lots of small farmers in Wisconsin. The cities of Vancouver and El Cerrito are also on imminent bankruptcy watch. These metrics suggest to me that the jobless claims numbers Thursday are going to be bad again. I also think the market is overly optimistic about the long-term economic outlook and the return to normalcy once the economy reopens. Zacks, for instance, is forecasting that most of the lost jobs will return once this is all over. I'm less optimistic that companies, having burned a ton of cash, will be able to rehire the people they laid off. Some jobs are also being automated as we speak. Here's one example of the economic ripple effect the shutdown is going to have. Cities will lose 25-50% of their revenue this year, and they will somehow have to make up their budget shortfalls. Most of them will raise taxes, perhaps in the form of a temporary coronavirus tax. That will be a drag on economic recovery, which will take a lot longer as a result. In terms of technicals, I expect at minimum a near-term test of the 20-day moving average, and possibly the ten-year trend line.
SP:SPXShort
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
10
The 'V' Shaped Recovery Fed is not anticipating a V shaped recovery. The fed is currently fighting massive deflationary pressures. Businesses (if they're open) are slashing prices, oil demand is at record lows, etc etc. Even as the fed's balance sheet grows to a record 5.3 trillion, March inflationary rate still fell to 5 year lows. If this was really going to be a V shaped recovery and things would quickly go back to normal in a few months, then you'd have a return of previous consumer spending levels on TOP of the feds massive stimulus, as well as the CARES act handouts. 'Normal' spending + trillions injected into the economy = massive inflation. The fed can just snap it's fingers and erase it's stimulus when it feel like it. This is not about supporting the economy through several months of a recession, this is about preventing global economic annihilation. In my opinion, the fed is trying to provide a softer and more gradual downward trend for the markets and buying time for a therapeutic/vaccine/Gradual opening of the economy. But it's no secret that the Fed is not anticipating a V shaped recovery, just ask Kashkari.
NYSE:DINShort
by chrv
FTSE CHINA A50 Possible Price Rebound?Price was within the descending channel for this equity index and lately, china had done very well combating the virus outbreak and it has lower death rate comparing to Italy and thousand have already been recovered where new cases weren't escalating the way it used to like past. This all proves that china is one of a great nation around the world which may prolly rise back first from this global pandemic chaos in the near future. It was the origin of that cruel virus and people have suffered a lot in the past which I believe the virus cases have reached its peak till today and nothing can get more worst if they continue holding this virus within the jar till the vaccine development. The easing of restrictions comes as Hubei reported that new infections dropped to zero on March 19. A dramatic plunge from the height of an epidemic that’s infected around 81,171 Chinese and killed over 3,277 but recovered 73,159 (which is a great achievement) on the date report 2020 March 24. China to lift lockdown over virus epicenter Wuhan on April 8 allowing transportation to resume for the city. All these positive changes in china let me feel that it may help domestic equities to run smoothly in the near weeks or months creating a rebound on the price action for this index. At least for short to mid-term even if it's not an overall reversal it may have probabilities to create new swing highs.
CLong
by Anatta0
ETH in a snapshot - DAILY ChartWhat a week for Crypto! Honestly no matter how hard you tried, you couldn't escape the news regarding COVID-19. Crypto was not immune as we can clearly see based off the prices across the market. We can certainly kiss the idea of Crypto being a safe haven goodbye for now because whales were pulling their money out faster than you can say WTF. It broke through many logical support lines and even the 200 MA on the Daily. It wicked to the double digits before people got some sense and raised it to its current validation of ~$121. Hopefully you were HODLING through all the madness because it definitely wasn't warranted. Right now the big players see our market as speculation and without circuit breakers, the pressures of selling become extreme. I would advise smart money to wait until we get more clarity in the bigger assets markets. Whether we like to admit it or not, that selloff on wall street affected Crypto. In the coming days, we will be getting more news coverage about the slowdown of the economy. Many of the forecasts I had regarding ETH have been delayed because of this unforeseen event. I won't be getting into ETH or Crypto for awhile until the markets and my chart re-calibrate. I am still LONG HODL and if it dips into the double digits again, especially around the 80s , Ill be looking to swipe a bag or two. Now, if I were to get in, I'd look into the following factors from a TECHNICAL point of view. Reminder that TECHNICAL ANALYSIS goes out the window when faced with strong fundamentals (Assets across world sell off, hacks etc...) *Moving Averages *Patterns *Volume *RSI Moving Averages = the 200 DAILY MA has been broken (Blue Line) without any fight what so ever. This can just as easily play the other way around, so as we start climbing toward the 200 MA, and say for example the 55 MA is providing it support, I would bet the support would be strong enough to break past that 200 MA. Patterns = The earliest pattern I see potentially forming is a morning star -ish : Do I like the pattern? Well ... for short/medium trades sure IF the next two are looking good : VOLUME= Yes, we had major volume leading to the dip and even more the following day. Right now, we aren't seeing the same type of volume even though the candle currently is red. This is a good sign that the selling has calm down (*Yes, this could also mean fundamentally people are waiting for more news before investing but I am talking technical here*) RSI = Undersold, what else can I say here. However I wouldn't look to deeply into this one just yet because the previous candles really did a number on this indicator. I would not be using this indicator as my only tool to get in/out. The final verdict? Short/Medium (a few days / weeks) we hit $150~ region. We complete the black pattern I drew on the chart. After which we would be testing very important resistances to continue our trip north. But something is telling me this is a bull trap and for that reason today I wouldn't want to LONG. If you got money you can split your orders; Have 1 around the double digits ($80s) and another around this current price to try and take advantage of this "calmness" Risk Management will play a big role here, so cover your a**.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by rezon
1
EW Analysis: Bullish Emerging Markets May Push EURUSD HigherHello traders! Today we will talk about emerging markets(EEM) and EURUSD. As you can see in the first chart, there's a positive correlation between emerging markets and EURUSD. Of course, there are no tick by tick correlations, but the current wave structure it's telling us that we may see a bigger recovery in the upcoming days/weeks. Emerging markets can be trading in a three-wave (A)-(B)-(C) recovery up to 61,8% Fibonacci retracement and 46 area, especially after that break out of the corrective channel, so in our opinion EEM may easily stay in the bullish trend. At the same time we can see strong and impulsive recovery on EURUSD, which is telling us that the temporary bottom can be in place and a bigger three-wave (A)-(B)-(C) correction can be underway up to 1.15 - 1.18 area, mainly because of break out of the wedge pattern (ending diagonal). Notice that these are daily charts and they may take some time to completely unfold, so don't get confused on the smaller time frame charts. We just want to give you an idea, where the markets can be headed long/mid-term. Be humble and trade smart! If you like our analysis, then please give us a like and share it! Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
Education
by ew-forecast
5
Another Short Term Update On Our Total Market CapUpdate: changed my lines around a bit and through in a schiff pitchfork for reference to levels. Looks like we are going to be consolidating at this price range for the next ~3 days. What does this mean for Bitcoin and the ALT coins you may ask? We most likely will see a rebuild up of Bitcoins markets cap putting its price back up t ~8,800-9,200. If Bitcoins prices breaks the 9,200 resistance level, we may see more movement up here, followed by a recovery in the market. Butttt... the market seems to very weak right now with large amount of wash trading going on ("Wash Trading" = Creating fake volume on the market to show strength where there truly is only weakness). I expect more Dumping from BTC on Monday the 29th, if and when the total market cap doesn't recover to ~245-260 Total market cap. (Which is highly unlikely, not impossible though) First target for dump 7,100-7,300 (Reversal at 7,300/ continued dump at 7,100) Second target 6,300-6,600 (Reversal at 6,600/ continued dump at 6,300) "Second target may not hit until ~5-7th of October" ALTs?... Most likely are going to see a continued dump until Bitcoin holds/ finds a reversal. (May still bleed in this scenario do to everyone FOMO buying btc). or find an increase if Bitcoin dumps while simultaneously we see more total capital is hitting the market (Strong sign of a reversal coming in my mind at least). Minor ALTS under the 400 ranking may find pumps during this process, but those are just high risk gambles in my mind. (These are the true Shit coins on the market and will most likely die off after a recovery happens).
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALShort
by CapitulationCalls
4
#BTC shoudl recover to USD 9230There is a new move that started for bitcoin. This time it is very volatile and I think it should recover to the previous monthly level of USD 9230 which has been tested twice on July 17th and then the 28th, and then finally lost in the big dump that happened on September 1st. ## Where we are at the moment? Where should we move next? Moving near the 8500 USD monthly level seems that in the short term a trading with a channel is very likely until it moves to the previous 9230 USD level or retrace to the 7430 USD level. The newly generated levels from the daily time frame are being respected in the 4 hours which seems to be a good trading opportunity in the short term. The upper level and probably the best indicator that the trading channel zone is over is around 8770 USD. On the other hand the lower level would be around 8100 USD and will probably indicate a even lower move towards the 7430 USD level. There is a channel that most likely be the accumulation zone where it would either move upwards after a time frame that points to the upper level at 8535 USD and the lowest level at 8340 USD. ## In the long run.... I think another important thing to consider is how the move crossed 3 trend lines that defined the previous wedge and the move prior the dump and how this can indicate a possible future target level in the accumulation phase holds and creates a new move.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by raserrano