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Redistribution

Ethereum : Learning Wyckoff Redistribution#ETH showing potential signs of Institutional Absorption here. By using Wyckoff Method of Analysis we can try and predict the direction of sideways movements by using identification characteristics on the Wyckoff Schematics. They are to be used as a general guide and paired with volume for a sound analysis of a probable direction. Read below for some intro education to Wyckoff. There is none to little information on Redistribution on the internet so I have created a small introduction below and on the chart. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ First, a quick introduction, Who is Richard D Wyckoff? www.wyckoffanalytics.com "Richard Demille Wyckoff (1873–1934) was an early 20th-century pioneer in the technical approach to studying the stock market. At age 15, he took a job as a stock runner for a New York brokerage. While still in his 20s, he became the head of his own firm. He also founded and, for nearly two decades, wrote and edited “The Magazine of Wall Street,” which at one point, had more than 200,000 subscribers. Wyckoff was an avid student of the markets, as well as an active tape reader and trader. He observed the market activities and campaigns of the legendary stock operators of his time, including JP Morgan and Jesse Livermore. From his observations and interviews with those big-time traders, Wyckoff developed the Wyckoff Method that codified these traders’ best practices into laws, principles and techniques of trading methodology, money management and mental discipline." ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ What is the Wyckoff Method? The Wyckoff Method is a methodology and set of principles which helps anticipate potential future directional moves of the market, by using these principles the Wyckoff Method can help a trader time when to be in the market and when to sit it out. It also allows us to see which financial assets are weaker/stronger by a comparative analysis of different assets in the same sideways trading ranges. By studying volume we can also gain potential insights of what the "Composite Man" is up to behind the scenes of the market. "…all the fluctuations in the market and in all the various stocks should be studied as if they were the result of one man’s operations. Let us call him the Composite Man, who, in theory, sits behind the scenes and manipulates the stocks to your disadvantage if you do not understand the game as he plays it; and to your great profit if you do understand it." (The Richard D. Wyckoff Course in Stock Market Science and Technique, section 9, p. 1-2) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ What are the 4 types of Trading Range structures? Accumulation - Green Heavy buying phase before uptrend begins Reaccumulation - Blue Rebuying to continue the uptrend Distribution - Red All buying is absorbed by larger interests, end of uptrend Redistribution - Orange Further demand is absorbed by institutional interests, continuation of downtrend ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Identifying Redistribution: There is hardly any information on the internet regarding Redistribution, and the general consensus amongst traders is that redistribution is the hardest to spot out of the different types of market structures. Institutional interests are usually waiting on both sides of these stops, taking profits at the bottom of the range and quickly shutting down any breakout attempts above the range. The key characteristics of Redistribution: From my experience, Redistribution ranges are the most volatile out of all Trading Ranges, and swing wildly stopping out traders in both directions. The SoW Sign Of Weakness is shown early in the range and potentially towards the middle and end this is a high volume signature move down. There should be a creation and a defined Resistance area above which you can see price consectutively fall underneath struggling to get above, this eventually leads to the final downward breakdown which is confirmed by the LPSY (Last Point of Supply) falling underneath support. There are MANY different Wyckoff Schematics, that work in different ways, this particular schematic I have created an example of represents closely #Bitcoins top earlier in the year for comparison. Check below. BTC Top: BTC Redistribution (This is the LPSY of above image as it fell under) -Distribution can appear inside a Redistribution TR (Trading Range) as Accumulation can appear inside of a Reaccumulation TR -Richard D Wyckoff ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ So using the above ideas, if ETH fails to get back above the $4000 region soon it could be in trouble here at least in the short term, if we get a strong volume bounce above $4500 I will consider myself fully wrong for now. I hope you enjoyed the analysis, feel free to share your thoughts and critiques in the comments and thank you for reading.
COINBASE:ETHUSDShort
by Worth_The_Ri5k
BTC Likely In 2nd Wyckoff Redistribution Phase It is still a bit too early to say, but i just want to think ahead of a crowd. If we hold 55.4k we could be heading into a 2nd wyckoff redistribution phase from where we eventually break down into a bear market. Like last time It is a chance that many will predict breakup into new highs, which in reality we will probably not see for many years to come. Don't get me wrong, i love and respect btc, but i just don't believe there is much left in it and want to think the opposite of what majority expect. I explained why i think 75k to be the top in more detail in previous ideas. We likely won't see prices above 100k for the next 5-10 years. Be well. I am not a financial advisor so non of this is a financial advise. BINANCE:BTCUSDT
by AVA37
Potential Shark 🦈 & 🦇GBPAUD - Looking for a a break in momentum and a redistribution phase back at the daily low, if this breaks ill be looking to swing this short towards the D points of the Bat/Shark (Monthly low) Monthly is bullish so I don't expect price to close below. LMK your thoughts! ** Disclaimer *** These ideas I never trade until the end target with my initial lots, I focused on high probable entries with higher lots and use a specific partial taking strategy giving me a very high win rate and take most of my profits very early, I only leave a small % of my capital to run the entire trade. On the flip side im constantly monitoring LTF momentum and will close early if things change, these analysis's are for research purposes only.
Short
by benalistarfx
Doge: Wyckoff Redistribution RangeIf Doge rejects here its a clear example of Redistribution.. Notice how well price respects the upper trading range. Only if DOGE gets back above 0.22 cents mark or so with STRONG buying volume can this bearish pattern be considered invalid. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- My redistribution is based on the characteristics of Distribution found here; school.stockcharts.com Let us remember that Wyckoff is not a CHART PATTERN, it is a METHOD OF TRADING RANGES that can be APPLIED TO ANY RANGE. That means characteristics of Accumulation can be found in Reaccumulation, and vice versa with characteristics of Distribution found in Redistribution. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thank you traders, Take Caution & Goodluck out there!
Short
by Worth_The_Ri5k
3
EUR/JPY possible redistribution!Hello my beauties. It seems to me that EUR/JPY is in a phase of redistribution. The arrows indicate a rough idea of what I think the price action will provide us with, and they are not to be taken as an accurate forecast of what I think will happen. Remember I'm not suggesting you should take a position, but verify the idea and monitor price in the indicated areas. If you find this idea to be helpful like, follow, and drop a comment below if you'd want me to analyse a different pair. Consider supporting me if you think I am providing you with value. Peace. Luca, TrickleDownFX
Short
by TrickleDownFX
1
Re distribution Next event!Welcome to thunderboy21 technical analysis, Here you see 2 parts on the chart that are very similar to each other, as i have said is my previous Post i was looking at this fractal from above distribution and projected it on this price action. i shorted the top via this fractal for a 20% move down ( Did not expect that fast ) i think this is just going to play out, first on the rise up to 49k ish everyone gets ultra bullish and fomo longs, only to sell into the bigger sell orders that are waiting at these levels. in the next post i will post the picture of this .618 - .66 fib with all the confluence i found! Make sure you check it out! SMASH that like button ! Follow for more great insights! that is thunderboy21 signing out
BYBIT:BTCUSD.PShort
by Thunderboy21
2
BTC USD (Chart From Anonymous friend In The Caribbean)It was the summer of 2016, I just arrived at the international airport of Curaçao and was on my way to Blue Bay for the holidays. Arrived at the Bayside Boutique hotel is was told their was an issues with my room due to a fire which happened a few days before my arrival. The hotel manager had some close friends who owned a hotel in Gran Roques (Venezuela) about 150 miles away and although at first I was quiet reluctant having to spend the holidays in Venezuela i finally agreed to stay at his friends hotel. Mainly because his friends were Dutch speaking, had a waterplane at my disposal and there was a small one lane airport in Los Roques at walking distance from the hotel. So i stepped on a waterplane in Curacao and went to Los Roque to meet the Dutch speaking owners at their hotel. A nice couple about 45 years old whom became good friends of mine. It was a bit odd seing their were only two other guest staying at the hotel but I didn't really cared anymore, I was so tired and just wanted to go to my room and rest. A few days later I met one of the other guests from the hotel on a diving trip and as we both speak Dutch it didn't took long to get along so we started to hang out more often. I remember one day we drank so many cocktails we were drunk AF before noon and he started to talk about Bitcoin whilst having lunch on the beach. I never even heard about BTC before that day so I was like hmm Uhm hmm yes, sure hmmm. He showed me the first chart I saw in my life and was telling me about how he could get killed just by showing this chart to me. At that time I thought it was the booze talking and that he was to drunk to know what he was saying but after two days he finally convicted me to buy some bitcoins (@500ish) and told me to hold them no matter what happens. I was sure AF I was going to get ripped because he was telling me that he and his friends had studied the market and were planning to redistribute wealth around the world. He repeatedly said his associates included some shady people and that he might get killed for sharing this information to me. At the end of my holiday we exchanged email to stay in touch and approximately 6 months later i got an email saying THANK ME LATER with a picture of the chart he showed me back then. Until this day I still don't fully understand the chart that according to him was "their plan" for redistribution wealth. I never got any email or reaction to my emails back after that. I'm still wondering what happened to him and I hope I get the opportunity to properly thank him one day. I've contacted the hotel owners but they told me he stayed about a year and then left. The chart above is not the actual chart that was send by my anonymous friend because I only got a picture of it but i tried to replicate it as much as possible and this wasn't easy due to dates and other stuff. ¡Espero tener noticias tuyas pronto y tener algunos cócteles conmigo hasta entonces, hermano!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Rekt4Sure
6
Too Good To Be TrueI wasn't expecting this move, but that's what Bitcoin does :) Last time we were at $40k, i sold all my Bitcoin and exited my positions. Even this mega short squeeze didn't reach my exit levels, so i'm still in profit and have more purchasing power. This could change ofcourse and when it does i won't hesitate to go back in. Let's review what we have now; The Bullish Hat: - OMG Amazon is hiring a crypocurrency product lead - Price is up 35% in 6 consecutive days - Price crossed above 50 day MA - Price broke resitance levels 32,36 & 37k - Price crossed above the gray zone of the overbought area The Bearish Hat: - Still in the trading range (30-41.3k) - Below 200 MA (Definition of bear market) - Very low monthly volume - Volume / Price divergence (Volume not following pump) - 89k Bitcoin still net sold on Binance (Volume Profile) - Weekend pump (institutions & wire transfer not working) - Engineered - pumps came on the last 2-3 hours just like previous traps. With all these givens, i have to admit this move wasn't expected. It looks strong, but when you look deeper, you see that this is like a one man show and that is the composite man. Almost all sellers in July got squeezed (Not me LOL) So the whole month looks like a mega short squeeze. So let's zoom out and look at the longer term trends. On the monthly scale, things still don't look good. Heikin Ashi charts are always good at filtering noise on the long term charts. Also look at the volume as we are about to close this month. We still have yet to see a green bar on amonthly scale. Again on the monthly scale, the main trend i've pointed out in my earlier analysis, still showing room for a downward move towards the oversold bottom of channel. And let's talk some indicators as well. Although it's probably not one of yours, but i've spent around 6 months to optimize it, hence the name "Twin Optimized Trend Tracker" This indicator is my headlight and confirmation before i enter any trade and it only had 6 trades since OCT 2018 with a return of 2.371% vs "buy and hold" return of 505% If it turns long, i turn bullish. Simple as that. While i can't predict it's calculation, i think price needs to stay above 37k and move sideways for a week or two and then pump over 42ish for it to print a buy signal. It's pretty much immune to fakeouts but note that 200MA is waiting at 44k! So even if it prints a buy signal at 42ish, a possible pull back from 44k would send us a bit lower which we can't foresee now. Is Re-distribution Invalidated and Are We In Accumulation? I think many of us are frustrated right now, following wyckoff schematics. Although it looks more like accumulation now (with break of the downtrend), I still believe we are in a redistribution simply because volume does not validate this price action and it is one of the main pillars of wyckoff method. Even if this is accumulation, we will still see a higher low possibly at (32.328) and a possible spring. So there's no need to FOMO right now. FOMO buying never ends well. Time to buy was at 29k, but you listened to me and missed it, live with it :))) Disclaimer: I'm short since 40k and i'm posting based on my position, not yours. So just don't FOMO right now. It's really too late for this leg. For a bullish target, assuming this as accumulation (bullish hat) we have 18 columns on P&f chart. This is enough fuel to take us above 90k - if it happens to be accumulation. To sum up, i think this Amazon job listing is as bullshit just like Apple & Facebook buying Bitcoin on their balance sheet. Big boys are powerful, and they can spread these news easily. I'm not going to invest my life savings based on a news that is verified by an unknown "insider". There was litterally little or no demand in July and they decided to pump so hard that everyone will turn bullish which looks like it worked. Best
Short
by BitcoinMillio18
51
Weekly Perspective For The PumpWe are all obsessed with the direction of price which we can't control and don't care enough attention to what we can control, such as our position sizing and action plan if the certain targets are met. That's why i'm always providing my bullish targets and i'll review these on a weekly perspective. We just got a pump on the last 2 hours before daily close with low volume (does that look eal to you?). This is the expected short term move i mentioned in my previous post. Remember, price follows liquidation and that's what's happening to late shorters now, unlike me - the early shorter at 40k :) They are getting squeezed because they sold at support in a red candle. So always sell on a green candle when everyone is bullish at the top! Right now the first resistance above sits at historically strong weekly level 34.678 and the support below at February Low 32.328 And the game is about the monthly close. If we get monthly close: - Above Feb Low 32.328, i'll consider this a sign of strength - NOT before. - Above 34.678 the weekly resistance, i'll consider this bullish - NOT before. But we still have one week until the monthly close. If we get above May Close at 37.253 or even 36.500 next week , it's a bullish sign. If these happen to be true, then the re-distribution may get invalidated. While i don't think these will happen, it still can happen and i can't control this. But i have an action plan based on these targets and that's what matters. Apart from the bullish targets, you want to look at the relationship between UTAD (Upthrust after distribution) in April and LPSY (Last Point Of Supply) in May. Everybody turned bullish by the end of April and thought we were going to 100k. In reality, this was the LPSY in the overbought condition before the huge markdown. Now look at the UTAD in June. The same LPSY could be in the making before going down to 20k's if not lower. I took the UTAD levels as the touching points of the down trend channel (blue zone) and extended up to LPSY for the overbought area (gray zone). That is why i'm not turning bullish unless the price gets above the gray zone and it's a moving target. Best. PS. We got a reversal bar on the P&f chart as well. I'll send an update from that post.
Short
by BitcoinMillio18
13
Closer Look At The Bull Trap In The MakingLet's look at the overbought area and the bull trap in the making. With "the talk" is now over, price started struggling to cross above the old weekly lows and got rejected twice as a sign of weakness. Coincidentally few days before "the talk", JP Morgan unleashed their customers from buying GBTC crypto funds. Is this the demand we were waiting for? In other words, are these the people being trapped right now? Probably yes. I'm expecting a short term weak uptrend followed by a down move below 30k. Best!
Short
by BitcoinMillio18
34
WHERE IS BITCOIN? ACCUMULATION OR REDISTRIBUTION?Accumulation and Redistribution always looks same until one side is broken. Schematics may mislead us. Just looking at the textbook wyckoff schematic and trying to fit it in the current price action makes no sense at all. Both accumulation and distribution can come in infinite ways. So we should look at the rallies and declines, in our case I choose Redistribution Scenario #1 as the most probable. Still it is mostly hard to distinguish between them. Rallies are very weak, dumps are relatively stronger. Supply trendline cannot be broken for weeks which is also a sign for re-distribution. Generally, accumulation do not come just after a mark-down. It needs more pain. GBTC premiums are negative which is a super bearish indicator also. DXY is making a bull run which opposite correlates with BTC price often. I opened at a short at 35.700 with low leverage since it is not very easy to predict if it is acc. or re-dist. if price goes up I will add more to my shorts. We may see any of these scenarios, but according to wyckoff laws and past experiences, I feel like we are in re-distribution. Scenario #1 or #2 ? I am not sure. Tİme will tell. This is not an advice.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by burakb
8
BITCOIN Perspectives - Wyckoff Re-distribution Ok so this may be the umpteenth re-distribution / accumulation you've seen by now and perhaps gritting your teeth at the sight of another, but having compared BTC with some re-distribution charts, it seems to fit best and perhaps more useful then EW counts - we'll see. Essentially the formation seems to have 2 distinct areas with "ICE" the separation, where in this instance SOW pierces down from UT to form a lower low. The interesting part is that from herein the "supply trendline" should hold for a time as the downtrend resumes. Here this could be into a next capitulation. d.stockcharts.com Not advice.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by dRends35
5