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PYPL: can it pick up that lost track? i still like PYPL - and i beleive it was on a growth track to hit the $130 level, which was interrupted when the global / US market got hit by the CV situation - as a business, the fundamentals are still right and sound (don't want to say "strong" - i'm not qualified for that :)), and that's a business that shouldn't much impacted by the ongoing situation, on the contrary there's more demand on online shopping and payment services prior to the sudden change, PYPL was one of these "well-behaved" stocks where price projections were relatively accurate (see the greenbox, and previous posts) - so what if it recovers now and starts getting back on track on the price growth movement. The yellow circle is the scenario that "got interrupted" - the green circle is the new projection in that case -- we may see a rise to the $$120-$125 range in or before Q3 this year. however, for the time being, this is pure speculation -- just a "what-if" exercise, until we get strong confirmation of any recovery - but in all cases, i like PYPL in the buy zone between the 2 yellow lines - hope next week will give us an entry .. if you like me to share these types of projections / "what-if" scenarios, let me know in the comment - and please *do not* take them for granted and do your own analysis and cross-check my assumptions before you trade - i can be totally off :) please stay safe!
NASDAQ:PYPLLong
by RedKTrader
TWTR: Projection for the upcoming earnings Watching TWTR and trying to make a projection based on price structure from recent moves. the projection count shows a possible move of around $8.0 to $8.4 from a baseline at the $22.0 level seems too big of a jump? well, given that SNAP has just excited the market with a 30% move on earnings this week, this scenario with TWTR doesn't look too wild. Note there's a larger price projection on TWTR to $35 but that may take sometime to happen. Game plan: since i'm already long TWTR and don't plan to sell the stock, if TWTR hits that level on earnings, i would look at a quick post-earnings play to the downside. either sell CC or buy some protective PUTs. i have a rule against selling CC ahead of the earnings :) Let's keep an eye on this for next week.
NYSE:TWTRLong
by RedKTrader
ZM: 03-14 projection update for next 4-6 weeksUpdating our ZM projection after the big run - there are 2 possible scenarios, a continuation (upward) and a reversal down after distribution - both explained on the chart. issue is, we still don't have much information to confirm either one or the other - so will need to update later - maybe in a week or 2 after the move reveals itself now ZM had had a big run given they benefit from the increasing demand on "remote work" and "distant learning" globally with the CV-19 situation - but the thing is, the price became way over-inflated and started to show continuous signs of weakness - possibly due to profit taking - if i hold ZM i would definitely sell it now after a 50% gain in just 3 weeks, then wait for the next wave - lock that revenue in my P&L - that would explain why ZM hasn't been reacting positively to "recovery days" like other tech stocks. that alone would make a short-term distribution scenario more possible - but the long term is still bullish and the demand is expected to continue, but once the fundamentals are "corrected" vs current inflation. either ways, it's strongly advised to wait for a confirmation of whatever ove we get, and make more research before making any trade decisions here. the market is too volatile and requires a lot more rigor in risk aversion. comment and feedback welcome.
NASDAQ:ZM
by RedKTrader
3
AAPL: still calling it a trap for the longsI know i'm going against my own technical indicators which are showing a move up with some bullishness (though very light) - but my rational is, look at the bars marked 0, 1 and 2, they are fake "buy" bars when they are in reality selling bars. My other reason is, the price movement looks like an old snail going up a slope - it can barely hold it - and the MAs are not "gaining" .. we saw the exact same pattern before at the $330 level. so i still support my previous post, that this is a trap for the longs - and we can expect a move down, and it will be a swift move - maybe to the $255 level -- this is not a proper projection thought, cause we still don't have enough data to calculate a good projection until the actual move down starts.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by RedKTrader
QCOM trade and the (Fisherman) setupTook a long position today on QCOM , and it worked well. entry point was $75, and the first target is $83.6, with a possibility that i just hold it for a long term (I like QCOM for the 5G motion) i wanted to share this trade cause it's a classic example of a setup that i call "the fisherman" - and while it's very easy to learn and use, it can provide high probability trades. here's how the fisherman works... - first we need to look at a Renko chart - you can see from the dual view here how super easy it is to see the signals on a Renko vs a regular bar or candle chart - Renko is a real secret weapon -- maybe we talk more about that in future posts - on the price chart, i have the MagicWave - ignore the Wave (aqua/orange) line, the other lines are a 10sma (purple) and a 30ema (blue) -- easy to add to the chart individually. the main one we need is the 30ema - on the lower panel there's my own version of the Balance Of Power - but you can use the Dual RSI indicator that i published before. why we need this? cause it shows momentum for 2 periods, a fast and a slow - and that's important for the signal we want to see. use a fast length of 5 (yes we want this to be really fast) and a slow length of at least 6 to 8 times the fast - we don't want the slow length to be "too sensitive". how does the fisherman setup work? what signals do we look for: 1- the price will cross the 30ema going up (the yellow circle), at the same time, both the fast and the slow momentum (RSI) will go positive (as in the yellow box) 2 - the price will retrace back towards the 30ema then will bounce off the 30ema (the green circle), and at the same time, the 30ema will start moving up creating a bottom - the shape in our green circle looks like a "hook" - that's the fisherman's hook :) 3 - super important, while the price is doing "the hook", the fast momentum moves down, maybe even into the negative zone, *but* the slow momentum remains green - the setup fails if the slow momentum also goes negative - we need to have a positive "backdrop" that shows there's a prevailing commitment to the upside 4 - The Entry: you're the fisherman, you have the hook, and now you need to "catch" an entry as low as possible for maximum profit - yes, we will be "bottom fishing" here :). in today's trade, i got lucky and caught the $75. 5 - The Position: once in the trade, we set the target and exit loss .. and back to our regular programming :) i hope some find this useful - practice the fisherman setup and add it to your arsenal of possible setups or even as a way to validate your good trades and entries (the fisherman can also be used in catching a good entry for a short, the hook will be the other way around. see if you can identify the 2 other fisherman setups on QCOM since the beginning of March - zoom our the Renko as needed) good luck!..
NASDAQ:QCOMEducation
by RedKTrader
2
AAPL: April 2 Target Projection (short term)AAPL made a short term reversal at the $260 levels which enables a new calculation of target for the next move down. the move down is expected to be a short one - with local target at the $233 to $237 range (mid-point $235) then it's not clear where we'll go from there. Let's watch as this is expected to happen today / tomorrow... Note: the price projection method here relies on volatility and price structure - but it is much less effective in times of inconsistency like the one we're in now - that's why while it can produce good projections (~70% accuracy) short term, it is not able to do long term projections until the market stabilizes. Note 2: not sure if anyone is watching these projections, but if you are, you can help me validate the accuracy of these projections. i think so far we've been getting a "hit rate" of 7 or 8 out of 10 with our projections across the various symbols i posted since I started. comments?
NASDAQ:AAPL
by RedKTrader
MSFT: 03/26 short term reversal, possible price targetwe have a short-term reversal pattern showing a possible calculated price projection of $160 to $164 - mid-point $162, and interestingly $162 was both a key support & resistance level in the prior down move. my thought, this is valid for next couple of trading days only, the mid-to-long-term / prevailing sentiment is still down. expecting any long move to be short-lived, for now. Let's see how accurate our calculation is. stay safe!
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by RedKTrader
GDX: Long opportunity for the patient tradersGDX , AMEX:GLD and GC1! are all correlated - GDX lost 40% of it's peak value in 3 weeks - and shot thru the 3-year lows - this represents a "golden" opportunity - pun definitely intended :) - to someone who wants to ride the opportunity and invest in gold - GDX provides a way to do that with small capital - i would consider watching the GDX ATM Calls for 4 to 6 months out - but only establish the trade once the reversal to the upside is confirmed and we have a good and reliable target count - this may happen in few weeks depending on when demand returns to gold by large investors - who had to liquidate to support their equity positions -- this is another trade idea for the "patient fisherman" (edited - my edits now showing)
AMEX:GDXLong
by RedKTrader
AAPL: Price projection updateis it strange that i should feel happy that my previous projection was bull's-eye accurate, but i'm not? (see linked post from few weeks ago) - we even hit that projection a week earlier. (my projection was based on historic behavior of the AAPL stock in a down markets or in response to negative news in the past) Today on the weekly chart, AAPL is sill showing a backdrop of bullishness (the green background on my lower BoP indicator), but on the daily chart, this has completely been depleted as seen here on this chart. now if we cross below the $270 level, i will buy ATM PUTs 2 or 3 months out - and in that case, i would be looking at the $215-$220 as a new "worst case" - and that would be almost 33% off the all time high price - and given the ambiguity of the economic situation, and the bad earnings call expected in April, that even may not be the worst we get. i will update projection further once there's some enough patterns & price structure to make the calculations - which is very difficult for now.
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by RedKTrader
2
AAPL: Should i go long now ?many fellow traders asking this question - i've been thinking the same for couple of weeks now :) to propose an answer, here's a 5yr weekly dual (Candle vs Renko) view of AAPL Note: i used a low-res, $2, Renko block cause i purposefully wanted to "zoom out" and remove as much price fluctuation and noise as i can the idea: --------- in the past 5 years, there have been few, 3 or 4, big drops like the one we're seeing now - AAPL will recover, an will resume its strength as a technology leader - and it's a good investment to those who are in for the long game - one of the easiest ways to see a good high probability (for these long term investors) entry points, is to wait until we cross the 50EMA (the blue line) on the weekly $2 Renko going up - we just crossed 50ema down, so that recovery may take few weeks or even months to happen - but when it does, you can ride that next wave up confidently - meanwhile, we can take short-term swings, but they are much less predictable - and in that case, i suggest you also use a similar set up but put Renko to a $0.5 or even $0.25 block and use an hourly or 10min time - the circle i highlighted is the 2015 pattern that i think we're about to see something similar to - very "roughly" similar, nothing exact. green lines to all!
NASDAQ:AAPL
by RedKTrader
MSFT: closing the week, and what's nextupdated and zoomed-in view from previous post - we hit the price projection then the bull vs bear tug of war intensified with a stormy (negative) backdrop - there's some longs coming in, and they were helped with some "shorts" getting their exit losses triggered on Friday. but we're not out of the danger zone yet, although friday showed how bullish the appetite is - we need to be patient until the situation resolves and we come back to balance. we need to see a sideways range forming ,for at least few weeks and maybe that won't happen before their next (Q3) earnings late April - any sudden move up can't be trusted for the long term. the MSFT growth story is not going anywhere so this drop is relatively a short term move, and is a good correction and an opportunity for building a long position - long term investors should watch for good points of entry below $150
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by RedKTrader
MSFT: small shorti totally hate to use the weeklies, they're so volatile - but i opened a small short (March 6 160 puts) in an attempt to ride this quick move down. The day's volume and Open Interest on these contracts is crazy. still hoping we touch the $160 tomorrow - and i don't want to hold that position over the weekend. i have no doubt the long awaited correction has started, and not only for MSFT. - the other things is, when inspecting the chart closely, in my view, today's action is more of an attempt to keep the price up to sell into the highest price, more than authentic buying pressure. looking at bar spread vs volume on the 30mins we'll see tomorrow. will update.
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by RedKTrader
AAPL: updated short-term projectionThe news will be driving the market this week - it already started last week and forced AAPL price down into the forecast zone from my last post Futures are already in the negative for all 3 major US indices ahead of the Monday market open and so are the ASIA indices. that can be a hint for an open to the downside. If AAPL opens with a gap down, this may scare some longs and also hit stop losses & trailing stops, then we get an accelerated move down that can't be balanced by those who are looking to buy on the dip - a week that opens like that may take us to the $290 - $292 range. But that's only one of many possible scenarios - will see. * it's hard to tell what happens after but we still maintain the same projection levels, and the projected mid-march target for now - as my most probable scenario - until more details of the price structure develop. * note that the long terms view continues to be positive for AAPL especially in an election year where the "growing US stock market" is expected to be a tag line - but not before we see a short-term correction that may have started already - driving the stock down to a level that is favorable for accumulation. i have a small short position (using March puts) that i expect won't stay on for more than a week or 2.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by RedKTrader
AAPL: (follow-up) yesterday's drop in more detailsfellow traders, here's the zoom-in view (30min bars) of yesterday's session against the short-term projection levels * the last hour of the session had increased selling that started pushing the price down - indicating that sellers may continue to be in control for few more days until the supply / fear / cashing-out is over - so we'll keep watching these projected price levels * if you want to go long AAPL (i do!), i suggest to be patient and wait until there's more favorable winds in the right direction. we're not there yet. AAPL is not going anywhere soon and there will be a lot of opportunities in future - patience will be rewarded :) let me know your thoughts and comments if you find sharing this analysis useful?
NASDAQ:AAPL
by RedKTrader
ZM Accelerated, new target updateZM is running up in an accelerated way - here's where i think the next target will be. so far, we hit 4 exact spots (see previous chart). while we hit the last target level, it was way sooner than expected. i'm trying to get the target projections more accurate both in price level and time - but time is way too tricky and unpredictable. there is big money behind these moves so need to be careful - the business model is great, but this is still a small player, compared to the big guys - the fundamentals don't add up (yet). i'm already out after a quick long call that went well - no regrets for missing the big 1000% move (seriously, it was > 1,000 % !) - will be looking at an opportunity to go back in.
NASDAQ:ZMLong
by RedKTrader
3