Short MPCIf oil takes a significant dip overnight, I will be short MPC. I don't think there is any fundamental to support this stock to the upside anyways, so I am shorting calls. Plus I am not much of an options buyer unless to trying to hit a home run.
The blue line represents options expiration day. These are 4h bars.
Important to note that NOT all refiners are trading in tandem. MPC and TSO are down today, while HFC, PSX, and VLO are all up.
Note TSO and HFC report their second quarter 2016 results 8/3.
Refiner
$WTI - Refiner Outages Approaching, P Action around $42.5 KeyUsing $42.50 as a support level, a bounce off that level would be considered bullish, but if prices fail to hold, a return to $37.50 seems probable. This implies a negative 200 day SMA cross, which suffice it to say, would be a return to the bearish int term trend. This, in concert with a low energy demand season approaching and several refiner outages expected in coming months, which would imply further inventory builds to already record levels.
MPC hits top fib line. Sold.I was long at $36 handle on Tuesday. I sold at $38.70 which it is straddling right now at the top of the fib retracement. MPC is outperforming other refiners today like VLO, HFC, PSX.
There is no technical support above $38.70. Either it breaks out to $50+ or rather I am looking to buy another dip below this fib line if there is no sustained upside support for the next few sessions.