GEO: Michael Burry bought more GEO
Michael Burry has bought more shares of this REIT so I thought I'd give a look at the chart for those who want to follow him.
What the chart is saying:
Big downtrend since May 2017. In May 2021, the stock has started a consolidation/base in form of a range between 5.5 and 9.54.
This range could be a bottom formation.
Note that bottoming pattern takes time and this one could continue for a few more weeks/months. However a break out of the range (9.54) could confirm a change of trend and a long trade/investment.
Keep monitoring this stock in the next few days/weeks, set an alert at the top of the range. If it breaks out of the range, the first potential targets are 11, 13.90 and 17.
I remain neutral for now. On watch.
Reit
Real Estate Blue Chip SPG Simon Property“This is the paradox of public space: even if everyone knows an unpleasant fact, saying it in public changes everything. One of the first measures taken by the new Bolshevik government in 1918 was to make public the entire corpus of tsarist secret diplomacy, all the secret agreements, the secret clauses of public agreements etc. There too the target was the entire functioning of the state apparatuses of power.”
Simon Property Group seeks hyper-privatization of property, by which they can expand their capital and power network
Political outcomes will drive the future for this corporation. Midterms of 2022 will be a catalyst to the upside, but then 2024 presidential cycle holds the true power.
Long GEO Group niche REIT - cool ticker, book valueThe cliche about prison life is that I am actually integrated into it, ruined by it,
when my accommodation to it is so overwhelming that I can no longer stand or even imagine freedom, life outside prison, so that my release brings about a total psychic breakdown, or at least gives rise to a longing for the lost safety of prison life.
The actual dialectic of prison life, however, is somewhat more refined. Prison in effect destroys me, attains a total hold over me, precisely when I do not fully consent to the fact that I am in prison but maintain a kind of inner distance towards it,
stick to the illusion that "real life is elsewhere" and indulge all the time in daydreaming about life outside, about nice things that are waiting for me after my release or escape.
I thereby get caught in the vicious cycle of fantasy, so that when, eventually, I am released, the grotesque discord between fantasy and reality breaks me down.
The only true solution is therefore fully to accept the rules of prison life and then,
within the universe governed by these rules, to work out a way to beat them.
In short, inner distance and daydreaming about Life Elsewhere in effect enchain me to prison, whereas full acceptance of the fact that I am really there, bound by prison rules, opens up a space for true hope.
if there ever was such a thing as no-brainer easy money
this is it.
Republican sweep up in the November Primary is what the market will begin to front-run this summer
targets are potentially conservative.
Real Estate and Construction costs are already massively inflated, the market has not yet revalued the enterprises like GEO Group
short squeeze can happen here if the retail cohort swarms it
AGNC new bottom?Here we have a MONTHLY chart for $AGNC, a mid-cap monthly paying dividend REIT (Real estate investment trust).
As you can see we breifly wicked to this price before and if you switch to a daily chart there is some evidence for a recovery.
That being said, with the increasing rates from the FED, housing prices starting drop as demand lowers, and combined with higher material cost for building homes (starting to shrink), it seems likely we'll see a bear rally, followed by another "bullwhip effect", particularly driven by new homes or lack there of.
If you google, "is agnc a good stock to buy", the analysists expect it to reach "$11.86 by Oct 5, 2023" which means you'd effectively double your money in a year, while also receiving ~$12/month for every 100 shares (~$800). Although I disagree and suspect that AGNC will be at best ~$9-10 by that date, I still feel like that this is a great time to SELL PUTS as a means to get paid to DCA into the stock. That being said, I could see the stock reaching as low as $5/share so be careful and DYOR...
AMT | American Tower | REITAmerican Tower Corporation, one of the largest global REITs, is a leading independent owner, operator and developer of multitenant communications real estate with a portfolio of approximately 219,000 communications sites. For more information about American Tower, please visit the Earnings Materials and Investor Presentations sections of our investor relations website at www.americantower.com.
DBRG is taking SWCH private? What now?Well, right after data center infrastructure stock SWCH announced solid 1st quarter earnings results, we get an announcement that it's going private. DBRG and IFM Investors are taking it private for $11 billion. Shareholders will get $34.25 per share on the transaction.
The price action gapped up to around that level and it will stay in this range until the transaction is complete and SWCH shares disappear from the exchanges.
This looks like a good thing for SWCH fundamentally, as the company continues to expand its data center capacity. You need investors to keep buying up land for data center infrastructure.
Solid Revenues and Net Income growth make the purchase a sweet deal for NYSE:DBRG and IFM, which is not publicly traded.
But don't go running to buy the REIT DBRG just yet. It's taking a dive like most other large caps. And an acquisition is a costly thing for any company--this can put a dent in the trend of the share price.
Like I've been writing throughout the index correction: WAIT for the bottom to develop. Most traders and investors are just impatient. If you'd just wait for it...
Thanks for reading, hope you learned a little something. Visit my website to learn more.
4/10/22 ORealty Income Corporation ( NYSE:O )
Sector: Finance (Real Estate Investment Trusts)
Market Capitalization: 43.145B
Current Price: $72.16
Breakout price (hold above): $72.45
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $70.90-$69.20
Price Target: $76.80-$77.90
Estimated Duration to Target: 76-80d
Contract of Interest: $O 6/17/22 72.5c
Trade price as of publish date: $2.15/contract
REITs looking bearish across the sector. H&S setups galoreFirst noticed this when I was scouting $ABR as a potential candidate for puts. I was looking for H&S setups, and liked the look of it. If you look at $ABR chart (daily or weekly) I imagine you'll see what I mean. Looks like we're peeling off the 20MA on the 1D to the downside. (Earnings are tomorrow, as a heads up)
But yes, this led me to look at other names in the sector to try and add to my overall conviction. And I found that while some have already made their move to the downside - I also found a bunch of tickers that seem like they're on the cusp of breaking down
Apart from $ABR the other names I'm looking at for moves toward downside in the sector are $O and $UDR . $O especially. In terms of more of a 'macro' view this year I think with increasing interest rates, inflation through the roof etc. I think real estate sector is going to feel some notable pain this year. But of course, theories only mean so much, let's just focus on the chart setups as/when they come. For now, the sector looks bearish
The options I'm personally trading currently are: $ABR Mar 18th '22 $17.5p (cost basis 2.51) and $O Mar 18th '22 $67.5p (cost basis 2.05)
Posting this moreso to draw attention to the sector in general, rather than my exact personal plays necessarily. Hence using $SCHH as the image for this 'idea' so people can see the sector overall. Note the rejection/inability to breach the 20MA on the weekly. I think this thing could sag and fold over.
Hope this is helpful to some! And as always, please let me know your thoughts/comments if you have any! I'm always open to new ideas, viewpoints and constructive criticism etc.
PINE: Short (signaled by 3 indicators)Alpine Income Property Trust, Inc. is a real estate company, which owns and operates a portfolio of single-tenant commercial properties. The company was founded on August 19, 2019 and is headquartered in Daytona Beach, FL.
Recent News (nontechnical analysis):
Dec2: Alpin Sells $24.5 Million towers;
Dec 3: Falling asset prices
Moving Average, MACD, and RSI indicate resistance has been reached a price decrease + volume decrease is on the way in the coming days.
CTRE (BUY) - Entrance + Exit StrategyCTRE is a REIT focused on adult care facilities.
Overview beyond the technical analysis:
In the past, CTRE it has been recommended by highly experienced real estate attorneys as a long-term REIT for holding/dividends.
Given the aging boomer population and focus on healthcare amidst the pandemic, this REIT stands out from others.
Technical Analysis:
CTRE is approaching a golden cross in the coming week. Even if history does not repeat, it often rhymes.
2 of the 3 previous golden crosses for CTRE have resulted in 60% increase over the period of several months.
At the current price point, CTRE may be able to expect new ATHs in 2022.
ALX - Rising Revenue is Not Enough Alexander's, Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust. The firm engages in leasing, managing, developing, and redeveloping its properties. Its operating properties are located in the greater New York City metropolitan area. The company was founded on May 16, 1955, and is headquartered in Paramus, NJ.
Despite some nontechnical indicators (i.e rising revenue & location), ALX seems positioned to continue losing value.
Fibonacci retracement from the previous All-Time High (ATH) is in a "red" zone, the lowest level of support in the trend. This could indicate "nowhere to go but up." So I decided to test that hypothesis with two indicators: 1) RSI and 2) Bollinger Bands. Both indicators insinuate an imminent downward price trend.
Entry: After support level at the time of publishing is broken.
Exit: After 5% -10% drop in price
$COR: A CORE Position For A Deflationary Environment?Real Estate has seen some specific winners starting to emerge, however, as the Fed soon begins the tightening process, is it possible we still see more in the tank for IYR (REIT ETF) as the Dollar continues it's rally? Keep in mind, a rate hike currently isn't priced in until July of 2022 and the inflationary pressures have been strong but with some patience on the REIT investor's part. I do believe the company could be primed to make an early run before a defensive cycle emerges. I'll scale in and manage risk based on price / sentiment toward the defensive names as a whole.
$DRE: Acting Like They Forgot About$PLD and $DRE, I believe, are setting up for a longer run here as the deflationary environment takes over. Don't forget about industrial REIT's or $DRE :)
RE - Real Estate Double Top Before FOMCIdea for Real Estate:
- Real Estate testing a double top after some exhaustion Sept-Oct.
- MBB's rolling over, rejected at -1 Std Dev:
- Because every other market component is already at +2/-2 Std Dev, and Real Estate is relatively less volatile than say S&P 500, I think the +1/-1 Std Dev is a good signal.
- We will have more confirmation next week depending on Fed's decision to taper MBS purchases. I think the Fed will stick to their signaled schedule in hopes of avoiding any sort of a "tantrum".
- Historically, RE and MBS's lead declines in equities.
- We have seen both commodity prices, Building Permits and pending Home Sales come down, so a decline is natural:
- Overseas property market declining is likely to have headwinds as well:
GLHF
- DPT
EverGrande Real-estate situation in China = Black Swan Event?Will the EverGrande Real-estate situation in China be the catalyst that pops our real estate bubble and slow down our homebuilder industry?
This was last year, when they listed their stock to the HK market and scammed retail money. Now they are out of cash again, and their bonds are worth less than 30% on the dollar.
If this thing collapse, it could be China's version of the Lehman Collapse.
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The world’s most indebted developer has warned Chinese officials it faces a potential default that could roil the nation’s $50 trillion financial system unless regulators approve the company’s long-delayed stock exchange listing. Shares and bonds fell in volatile trading.
China Evergrande Group mapped out the scenario in an Aug. 24 letter to the Guangdong government seen by Bloomberg, in which the company sought support for a restructuring proposal needed to secure the listing and avert a cash crunch.
Some of Evergrande’s biggest strategic investors have the right to demand their money back if the company fails to win approval for a backdoor listing on the Shenzhen stock exchange by Jan. 31. If investors refuse to extend the deadline, Evergrande will need to repay as much as 130 billion yuan ($19 billion), equivalent to 92% of its cash and cash equivalents."