MAA BIG TOP ONE FOR THE WATCHLISTNice top forming at Mid American Apartments - MAA - weekly - daily. Will be in my watchlist waiting for downwards move to confirmation line.
Reit
Real-Estate Looking as Bearish as the Stock Market, Buy $DRVWhat is this chart? This is the MSCI Real-Estate Investment Trust (REIT) Index, it is the Index that DRV is backed by. DRV is a 3xLeveraged Short Real-Estate ETF.
Why is it important? Because if you buy DRV while RMZ is crashing you can make some pretty insane returns. If you look at the Elliott Wave count on this chart and on the related SPX500 chart you will see that the counts are basically the same, it appears that we are in the midst of a non-limiting triangle that is at the end of a double combination. This means that both the Stock Market and REITs are going to stop growing for the next year or two and then at some point, after the triangle is complete, they are going to collapse. This basically means that the entire US Economy is going to go to shit like it did in 2007-09. Since it is a double combination that would imply around an 80% retracement of the Bull run starting in 2009.
(SPX500 - Multi-year Elliott Wave Forecast...)
How do we know if this chart is correct? Well we already have the break down out of the channel, and triangles are generally pretty easy to detect even in the very early stages. It also appears that there is significant momentum resistance and we are finding some resistance underneath the channel as well. There's also a perfect double top with the peak we made in the beginning of 2007. At this point it would take a whole lot for this to actually be able to push above the high, and I'd say that it is more or less confirmed. If the high is broken then it may be a good idea to change to a neutral economic outlook until more data is available.
Remember that DRV is the big play here. The gains made from shorting RMZ are nothing compared to what DRV could be worth in a recession. The only reason we look at RMZ is because it is the underlying asset for DRV and because it's wave patterns are much more clear.
The clouds are definitely dark over Cyclical City, I would be seriously cautious about being invested in housing and anything that is cyclical in nature for the next couple of years. The market has had a good run for the last 7 years but now it looks like its time for the cycles to change and for the Economy to once again enter into a bearish period.
Another interesting thing I noticed when I accidentally analyzed the wrong chart, is that the MSCI Inc. Stock (The company that makes these Indices) looks like it could be reaching a peak. This would still be pretty speculative since there are no confirmations but it could be telling as to the overall strength of these indices and the stock market.
Real-Estate Not Looking Good? Buy $DRV (Elliott Wave Analysis)What is this chart? This is the Real-Estate Investment Trust (REIT) $MSCI it is the underlying asset for the 3xLeveraged Short Real-Estate ETF $DRV.
Why is it important? Because if you buy $DRV during a housing market crash you can make some pretty insane returns, and if you look at the Elliott Wave count (unconfirmed) you will see that $MSCI has possibly just completed Wave-c of an Extended Zigzag. Since it also ended with a terminal impulse it means that at a minimum Wave-c needs to be completely retraced but since we are completing an extended zigzag, and we are most likely in a triangle, it is highly unlikely that we'd retrace ALL of the entire zigzag because, based on my stock market count, we are in the 2nd "Three" of a major correction that started in 2000.
What does this mean? It means that if my chart is correct the Real-Estate market, and the US Economy, is about to collapse. The process will be slow and painful but this is a perfect starting point for it., the stock market is also reaching a nice high at this point it has basically triple topped. It seems like my related chart will probably continue to be right and the stock market growth will pretty much come to a halt and then the whole market will fall through the floor after about a year. I except there to be blood in the streets by the end of this. It will be at least as bad as 2007-09.
So how do we know if this chart is right? Well first of all it's still extremely speculative (lower probability), if you wait for it to first break the lower yellow line, and then to break the red and blue lines, it will have more or less confirmed the Wave-c impulse and also the entire Zigzag. If you wait until the blue line there is still plenty of profit left but you did miss out on quite a bit (especially on $DRV) so it may be a good idea to take the risk of being wrong and start moving capital into this trade now. Since Wave-c ends on a terminal it needs to retrace the terminal in 50% or less time it took, and typically its much faster than that. This means that if this chart does end up being right the housing market (and in particular $MSCI) is going to crash very fast and very hard within the next year.
How do we know if this chart is wrong? Well this would be the tippy top so if it moves up even a little bit from here it would be a good idea to stop-out and wait for a break down before taking this trade. That means that if you take the trade now on $DRV your R/R is over 1:1000. If you wait until there's a break down your R/R isn't quite as fantastic but the probability that this chart is correct increases substantially because it eliminates any other possibilities I may have overlooked.
Remember that $DRV is the big play here. The gains made from shorting $MSCI are nothing compared to what $DRV could be worth in a recession. The only reason we look at $MSCI is because it is the underlying asset for $DRV and because it's wave patterns are much more clear. Again this is a very speculative and risky trade at this point it's definitely not recommend that you get overly aggressive until this trade has more confirmations!
The clouds are definitely dark over Cyclical City, I would be seriously cautious about being invested in housing and anything that is cyclical in nature for the next couple of years. The market has had a good run for the last 7 years but now it looks like its time for the cycles to change and for the Economy to once again enter into a bearish period.
PSA Hound of the Baskervilles signalAfter the fed meeting on Wednesday announced they would not continue to raise rates, PSA zoomed to new highs. Ignoring the MACD and RSI divergence. This is a rare signal named Hound of the Baskervilles signal after the Sherlock Holmes novel. It is an incredibly strong signal that indicates something fundamentally is changing in the market. In this case it seems the market is bullish on PSA after being reassured in the short term that the fed would not raise rates. I read this as an extremely bullish indicator.
Time to short residential REITs?Since hitting a high around $65 in late 2014 REZ has been somewhat range bound between 64-55. As the residential real estate market is highly effected by federal interest rates, the upcoming Fed meeting will likely have an impact on price. If the fed decided to continue raising rates I can see REZ puling back to the bottom of the range. Even if the Fed decides to keep rates going, the generally anxious attitude of the markets will likely not push the price up past its high from 2014. Now would be an ideal entry point for a short with a stop loss set at the resistance from the ATH around 65.50.
MACRO VIEW: RWR RISKS TO TAG 5-YEAR MEANSPDR Dow Jones REIT ETF (RWR) has failed bot 5-year and 10-year trends by breaking below upper 1st standard deviations from 5-year (260-weeks) and 10-year (520-weeks) means.
On short term basis the price is in clear downtrend - it broke down below lower 1st standard deviations from quarterly (66-day) and 1-year (264-day) means (standing at 85.80 and 83.70 respectively)
If the short term downtrend holds, namely if the price continues to trade below 1st standard devations from quarterly and 1-year mean, RWR has a chance to reach 5-year mean, standing at 74.70
