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Relativestrength

Green in the sea of red: Biotech (2)Summary This week we are sharing 2 rebound trade opportunities in healthcare and biotech, AMEX:XLV and AMEX:XBI , which are showing relative strength against S&P500 and Nasdaq , making them better candidates to trade for rebound. Since the beginning of 2022, skyrocketing inflation and increasing recession risk have pushed the broad equity markets to the downside. S&P500 is down more than 20% from peak, while the more tech heavy Nasdaq is down close to 30% from peak as of today. If we look back the whole rally, it all started during Mar-2020 as the Fed reacted aggressively toward covid by massive money printing (i.e. quantitative easing). In fact both S&P500 and Nasdaq are now getting closer to the 250 weeks moving average, which is approximately where the post-covid rally had broken the pre-covid peak. Rebound is very likely to happen as “where it started” is usually a strong resistance level that slows correction. S&P500 Nasdaq100 To execute this trade, instead of directly longing the indexes, healthcare and biotech sector ETF, AMEX:XLV and AMEX:XBI are showing relative strength against S&P500 and Nasdaq100, which make them better candidates to trade the idea. Fundamentally speaking, we believe the reason behind the strength is due to the irreversible trends of aging population across the globe especially among developed countries; as well as in the seemingly more frequent pandemic outbreaks during recent years. Both trends create steady demand for healthcare and need for biotechnological innovation. The MRNA technology is a good recent example to illustrate the importance of biotechnological innovation in fighting pandemic. We recommend more conservative traders to execute the idea with AMEX:XLV (link here: ), while more aggressive traders can go with AMEX:XBI (this post) which is relatively volatile. Note : XBI also come with 3X leveraged ETF AMEX:LABU (bullish) and AMEX:LABD (bearish) for those who are looking for more leverage with same amount of capital Technical The 250 days moving average of AMEX:XBI is pointing downward, and it is currently trading below the 250 days moving average, which confirms the down trend is still effective for AMEX:XBI . Benchmarking with NASDAQ:QQQ (Nasdaq100 index ETF), although both are in similar down trend, AMEX:XBI 20 days moving average has already crossed the 50 days moving average while that of NASDAQ:QQQ still running below, which shows stronger confirmation of the rebound for AMEX:XBI than NASDAQ:QQQ . Here are some important level one should pay attentions to: Downside support 72.55: Jun-30 retest low after breaking 50 days moving average 61.78: May-12 52 weeks low Upside resistance 84.63: Jul-8 high after breaking 50 days moving average 97.19: Apr-5 high before creating new low on May-12 118.23: 2021 May-10 consolidation bottom, which was broken, retested and continued to the downside during 2021 Nov to Dec
AMEX:XBILong
by geoffreyip523
Green in the sea of red: Healthcare (1)Summary This week we are sharing 2 rebound trade opportunities in healthcare and biotech, AMEX:XLV and AMEX:XBI , which are showing relative strength against S&P500 and Nasdaq , making them better candidates to trade for rebound. Since the beginning of 2022, skyrocketing inflation and increasing recession risk have pushed the broad equity markets to the downside. S&P500 is down more than 20% from peak, while the more tech heavy Nasdaq is down close to 30% from peak as of today. If we look back the whole rally, it all started during Mar-2020 as the Fed reacted aggressively toward covid by massive money printing (i.e. quantitative easing). In fact both S&P500 and Nasdaq are now getting closer to the 250 weeks moving average, which is approximately where the post-covid rally had broken the pre-covid peak. Rebound is very likely to happen as “where it started” is usually a strong resistance level that slows correction. S&P500 Nasdaq100 To execute this trade, instead of directly longing the indexes, healthcare and biotech sector ETF, AMEX:XLV and AMEX:XBI are showing relative strength against S&P500 and Nasdaq100, which make them better candidates to trade the idea. Fundamentally speaking, we believe the reason behind the strength is due to the irreversible trends of aging population across the globe especially among developed countries; as well as in the seemingly more frequent pandemic outbreaks during recent years. Both trends create steady demand for healthcare and need for biotechnological innovation. The MRNA technology is a good recent example to illustrate the importance of biotechnological innovation in fighting pandemic. We recommend more conservative traders to execute the idea with AMEX:XLV (this post), while more aggressive traders can go with AMEX:XBI (link here: ) which is relatively volatile. Note : XBI also come with 3X leveraged ETF AMEX:LABU (bullish) and AMEX:LABD (bearish) for those who are looking for more leverage with same amount of capital Technical AMEX:XLV is still outperforming major indexes. Instead of downtrend, AMEX:XLV is still in a consolidation period. AMEX:XLV has been trading in extending box range since Oct-2021, with 1 extension to the upside in Dec-2021, and 1 extension to the downside this year on Jun-13. The more than 8 months of consolidation period has flattened the 250 days moving average, yet not bending it downward (yet?). 20 days and 50 days moving averages have been crossing each other multiple times during the consolidation period, making them less indicative from a technical perspective. Currently AMEX:XLV is trading below 250 days moving average, tested but failed to penetrate the moving average on Jul-8, if it still cannot get above the 250 days moving average in the coming months, the downside pressure will materialize into an actual down trend. In summary, these are the important levels one should pay attention to: Downside support 118.75: Jun-13 new box bottom 109.74: Post covid peak before rallying to the upside Upside resistance 132.04: Jul-8 attempt of breaking 250 days moving average 143.42: Apr-8 new box top
AMEX:XLVLong
by geoffreyip523
BTC PERSONAL ANALYSIS IN THE SHORT TERM (UPDATED)EMERGENCY UPDATE TO ALL BTC TRADERS AND INVESTORS There is a huge resemblance of momentum strength in the Relative Strength Index's 1 hour time-frame, please be warned on making any decisions on longing at this point unless we have further confirmations to the upside. The following list below are the edges that confirms another breakdown to the downside: Continuous Macro-Rejection in the 21-22k region which is now more than a triple top. Reverse HnS invalidated previously Short Squeeze Liquidation up to 20.9k followed by an immediate rejection 1H-1D timeframe macro-descending triangle which is known for continuation to the downside. Recent Negative Fundamentals is the Voyager Exchange's pause for services with regards to withdrawal, deposits and loyal rewards. EU news to deal with MiCa Legislation to regular Crypto Market Here are the only positive bias for a potential reversal to the upside: Falling Wedge Pattern Continuous Re-test on the 17-18k pattern forming a potential double bottom TIP: You can DRAG the chart above. As you can see the edges towards the upside are very low and no positive fundamentals either, You have been warned! If you like the immediate advice, don't forget to like, share and comment. -Wamses
FTX:BTCPERPShort
by Wamses
1
Bitcoin BTCUSDT - Elliott Wave + 0.786 FIB + Falling wedge!- Bitcoin on the weekly/3D chart is currently sitting on the main support: Previous 2017 Swing high + 0.786 FIB + ABC correction completed! - We are also forming a falling wedge pattern, which is definitely a good sign and can lead to a new bullish trend. - As per my Elliott Wave analysis - ABC correction should be completed successfully! - If you check the RSI indicator, you can spot another falling wedge + oversold condition. - Volume analysis - huge capitulation spikes, which usually indicates trend reversal. - We have a bullish hammer candle on the D/3D chart - indicating a rejection to go lower. - I do not see any reason why bitcoin should not respect the previous all time high support from 2017 (around 20 000 USD).
Long
by UnknownUnicorn2537518
7
Total crypto market 1M timeframes - BTC - BTCUSD comparedHi! Apparently, technical analysis does not work, but on its basis we can base many future movements, entries or exits. A self-fulfilling prophecy which is technical analysis over the past few years has estimated a pretty good time to jump in and jump out the train. 1. Today I'll will show you what we can infer from the charts - price action, rsi, stoch & some herd noise. Shortly about indicators - As we all know, these are lagging indicators, but it's pretty good to use them to take wider picture on the market structure. Here is some thoughts about currently market structure played at historical data with few more tools; Currently on the monthly chart frame using Fibonacci retracement price get to the 0.786 point -> same as bitcoin chart. - This level is quite important as price action meet the 200 moving average – last several times it was great opportunity to take some expositions at this point assuming long term moves (from the begging of bitcoin history including 1m time frame candles – bitcoin didn’t fell & close below 200 moving average.). Otherwise in this place total crypto market cap reached “last bubble highs” around 771.5Billion $ of total value. Bitcoin with this total crypto market value (late 2017) was around 19.875 $ price per piece – same as now was (few hours earlier). Based on historical facts on last two cycles - last relative strength index topped ( 3x red circles RSI window/ confirming divergence) - around 01 march 2022 - from this point, we will have approximately 730 days until price rise up significantly which can be around march 2024 – 1 month until next bitcoin halving. 2. From example some thoughts I always keep in mind that in crypto it is all base on multiplying your exposition: -> Since buy at 60k, your path until 100k give you 66,667% gain, -> Since you buy at 20k, gain will be 500%, -> Since you but at 10k your profit will reach 1000% - it’s 10x compared to 1,667% when you buy at 60k. It is very likely that we will see price range 14/ 16k $ for one bitcoin, without excluding deeper dive in short/mid term. -> From 60k to 20k is 67,67% down/ -> From 60k to 10k is 83,33% down/ -> From 20k to 10k is still -50% down/ Don't catch the falling knives should be appropriate definition if you don't calculate your risk -> nice way to avoid risky entries is DCA - which mean dollar cost average - in other words entry price averaging. 3. Some thoughts about sentiment. > Positive features: - BTC as know was never hacked, - It gives P2P transactions, - diversifies portfolio - best known digital value, - long term dolar oversupply (btc priced in dollar) – as we know all of FIAT currency is going to zero over the time – knowing it, we can assume that Bitcoin going to infinity compared to USD - (look BTC starting price ~0.10$), - on-chain whale accumulation, - price correction ~75% down – (estimated 75-85% for my attractive range), - negative social media sentiment, “crypto is a scam” & others, - fundamental – bitcoin was created by people for people, and its value its created by unforced faith. >Negative features: - unfavorable regulations for cryptocurrency (especialy PoW consensus) – including green energy, - bitcoin sell pression from institutions – cutting the corners - to take over the market* and attempt to liquidate centralized collateraled holdings like Celsius – adding maximal fear, - uncertain situation on the financial markets, bitcoin will be probably one of the assets to cover other losses, - as allways, black swans. 4. I'm not saying that bitcoin won't hit new lows and break a long-standing trend, but I think it's unlikely. Im still think that bitcoin is very risky asset with high volatile, but its great opportunity to diversify your portfolio into digital and very liquid assets - inversely correlated to FIAT currencies. This market stays here for longer and it looks like it is repetitive itself.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by NightTerm
FXI / Nasdaq Relative Strength & Correlation China's Large Cap ETF (FXI) is showing notable bullish Relative Strength (RS) compared to the Nasdaq (0.26 on the Daily RS, using a 50 period timeframe). The typical RS between these two fluctuates between -0.15 - 0.10. FXI also tends to have quite a strong correlation coefficient vs. NDX, but we're finally seeing that break down (0.24 on the Daily w/ a 50 length and trending down). Conservative swing traders want to see a breakout above ~$34 for longs, which would clear the downward sloping trendline that FXI has been respecting since early 2021. While there's still geopolitical risks associated with trading Chinese equities (e.g. tensions with Taiwan), China's recent dovish tilt is encouraging for swing-trading speculators. AMEX:FXI NASDAQ:NDX
Editors' picks
AMEX:FXILong
by Michigandolf
13
Best relative strength opportunities for USD strengthRelative strength is an extremely important—and overlooked—aspect of forex trading. In short, relative strength involves analysing each side of a currency pair to see where the best opportunities exist. If USD is strong, we want to look for the WEAKEST other currency. The opposite is true if USD is weak, we want to look for the STRONGEST currency. When you combine a strong and a weak currency you are more likely to see a powerful trend in one direction. You can get trends without this being true, but these trends tend to be weaker and have sharper retracements which results in a poor risk:reward. A simple way to conceptualise relative strength is to consider how the same concept used in stock markets. Would it be better to buy Apple shares when SPY is heading up or down? You will have a higher chance of winning if SPY is heading up and Apple is heading up faster . This is relative strength. We take that same basic concept and apply it to Forex by looking at each currency on its own merits. TlDr Relative strength = Stronger trends, better risk:reward, higher winrates. Since USD is currently strong, we should get a sense for the weakest currencies to find good pairs to trade. Thankfully, TradingView makes this very easy. To find a currency strength chart, start with the currency code, such as EUR, and then add WCU. EURWCU will give you a currency strength chart for the Euro, CHFWCU will give you a strength chart for the Swiss Franc, and so on. I look at these WCU's in my scanner and here are my current thoughts. Long trades: CHF: CHF is breaking out lower, meaning any long trade on USDCHF is more likely to break out higher. In fact, CHF is one of the weakest currencies according to my scanner. This is bullish for USDCHF. JPY: JPY has been weak most of this year, but it is holding a range right now. A long on USDJPY may have limited upside. CAD: CAD is in a downtrend, meaning USDCAD could be a good long trade. Short trades: GBP: GBP has been weak recently but is currently ranging. I have made some fantastic short trades on GBPUSD this week (see my other ideas). But it isn't as weak as EUR, so I might look at a EURUSD short instead. EUR: EUR is definitely a lot weaker than GBP. If it continues down I would feel comfortable shorting EURUSD, as long as there is a confluence on that chart too. Final notes: This is only valid as long as USD stays strong. If USD becomes weak (such as with unexpected FOMC news today) then the dynamics of the situation would've changed and I would take another look at the overall situation before getting into a trade. This is not trading advice, but rather a tutorial for how to conceptualise relative strength and use it as part of your own analysis. Give the strength charts a go. At the very least they give you a completely different way to view Forex pairs. Pairs trend best when one currency is strong and another is weak. Don't miss out on this basic tool that can greatly enhance your trading. Best of luck!
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by ichimokucorner
Bitcoin Stands Above Sirat BridgeAs you can see, we are in the falling channel form in the weekly timeframe and we have reached the support point of this current channel. We also polled wma200, which has served as a trend changer for the bear market for years, although we are currently below this moving average, I hope to close the week above it. On a weekly basis, our Relative Strength Index value appears to be at historical lows. If we break this channel and even if there is a candle closing in the weekly timeframe under wma200; I do not think that the figures such as $13,500, which is currently spoken in the society, will hold the price, and I predict that we will go to the minimum $6,500-$9,000 range. In a possible reaction rally, I think the price target we can reach is the wolfie resistance area of ​​the current channel. We can see serious candlesticks under wma200, this is normal, but we should never, ever close weekly candles below this moving average.
Long
by the6ylal
AUDUSD - BearishEvery day I run a Rate of Change scan across three timeframes for each of the major currencies. As we head into the new week, the scan is showing that USD is the strongest currency, while AUD is the second weakest (behind JPY and tied with NZD). This is enough for me to take interest in AUDUSD as a possible bearish trade (and USDJPY as a bullish trade). Now that the scan has us interested, when we open up the 1H chart we can see a beautiful downtrend on Ichimoku. The Kumo is thick and angled down, Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen are angled down, Chikou is below the candles, and price is consolidating near a point of horizontal support. All of this combined tells us that the market equilibrium is heading down with bearish momentum. IF price breaks below the horizontal support, I will look for a short opportunity. If it rebounds, I will stay away until it comes back. It's that simple!
Short
by ichimokucorner
4 Reasons why the BTC Bottom could be CloseINDEX:BTCUSD In today's video I look at 4 reasons why I think we are close to the bottom: 1. 200 week MA - historically the 200 week MA has indicated the bottom 2. Fibonacci golden pocket retracement - a fib pulled from the very start of bitcoin in July 2010 to the all time high, show a zone for the possible low 3. Weekly RSI - historically we have never gone below a certain level and we are nearing that level 4. CME Gaps waiting to be filled - there is a gap that is about to be filled These four factors are aligning very well with weekly and daily support levels that BTC is nearing. Could this be the bottom or close to it? Have a look at the video and let me know in the comments what you think. Not financial advice. DYOR. Papertrade before using real money. If you liked this idea, please give a thumbs up and follow. Safe trading. Shawn
INDEX:BTCUSD
by zartraderguy
Volatility within a rangeHere’s one if you like drama. Barely averting a strike in Norway, ongoing conflicts in Ukraine, the Saudis cutting supply to China, oil is in the middle of it all. With so much uncertainty, oil has been suffering bouts of volatility recently which presents an opportunity for trading. Over the past month, crude oil futures seem to be trading within an ascending wedge. A bollinger band marks out the upper and lower range that prices have bounced off previously. When coupling this with Relative Strength Index (RSI), we see a recurring pattern where prices bounce off the lower bollinger band as RSI reaches the oversold levels. With current prices trading near oversold levels and the bottom bollinger band just a touch away, we see a bounce on the horizon. Let’s stay patient and wait for confirmation from prices touching either the support of the ascending wedge or breaking the lower bollinger band before committing to the position. Entry at 117.8, stop below 114.5. Target at 125. Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by inspirante