Bitcoin resistance at 200-week price average. Bitcoin has been hitting resistance at 200-week price average($25k) for the past few weeks as the lower indicators test thin lines between remaining bearish or breaking bullish. PPO has both lines below the 0 level which indicate overall bearish price momentum, while the TDI shows the RSI line creating a potential double-top at the 60 level. In general, the RSI will trend between 20-60 during a bear market, and 40-80 during a bull market. I personally would like to see Bitcoin turn around here and head lower for a longer bear market of at least a year. My current average is below $20k and I would like to add more below $20k.
Short-term neutral, medium-term bearish, long-term bullish. FTX drama likely gave us a bottom near $15k, but it would be nice to see a re-test to confirm that $15k is the actual bottom.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
BLURUSD Daily S/R| POC| Range Low| Price ActionEvening Traders,
Today’s analysis, BLURUSDT, trading towards its range low, holding and consolidating will be a bullish sign,
Points to consider,
- Price Actin Corrective
- Daily S/R Support
- POC S/R Support
- PA Rotation
BLURUSD’s immediate price action is corrective and is at an area that has technical confluence with the .618 Fibaoncci, POC and Daily S/R, allowing for a bullish bias.
Consolidating and creating a bottoming structure will be a sign of strength, this has yet to be produced.
Overall, in my opinion, BLURUSDT is a valid long with defined risk, price action is to be used upon discretion/ management.
Hope this analysis helps,
Thank you for following my work
And remember,
“Dangers of watching every tick are twofold: overtrading and increased chances of prematurely liquidating good positions” – Jack Schwager
USDCHFThis situation has been examined in different dimensions:
1- Strong supply and demand levels that I identify with my own indicator and system.
2- The structure of recently formed waves
3- Current market momentum
4- The structure of classical and price patterns
In this idea, I identified the direction of the market in different ways and in the second step, I analyzed the potential of continuation or reversal. Usually, paying attention to the trend and strength of the trend can greatly increase the accuracy of the analysis.
In general, I tried to describe the continuation of the movement in the simplest possible way in the diagram.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This is a personal opinion and you are responsible for any trading decisions.
if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad ❤️️
A simple sell strategy for Heating OilWith price and “commodity premiums” that we track showing signs of a structural shift, we think these represents potential tradeable set-up in the mid to long term as supply and demand finds some way to normalization after the pandemic & war shocks over the past 2 years. Hence, we think commodities will continue to be where the actions at.
With winter just about over, we thought it would be perfect time to look at the ‘talk’ of pre-winter, Heating Oil.
After a staggering 600% run-up from the depths of 2020 to the peak pre-winter last year, Heating Oil might just be on the opposite journey now.
On a weekly timeframe, Heating oil has decisively broken the uptrend established since 2020 and now sits on the support level for the 2011-2014 period of 2.75.
Zooming closer on the RSI, the current level proves to be a pivotal point for heating oil’s trend, as each time the RSI crosses below the 40-level, it is followed by an accelerated move lower. In fact, taking a short position every time the RSI crosses below the 40-level would have netted an average of 27%, if you manage to catch the bottom!
Even if you can’t catch the bottom, following the strategy, where we build a short position in heating oil when RSI crosses below 40, and hold it until RSI crosses back above 40, would still make a respectable 18.3% average return.
On a shorter timeframe, Heating Oil seems to be trading within a descending channel, with the trend pointing lower.
Another thing we like to look at is the relationship/premium between Heating Oil and Crude Oil. However, as the two types of contracts are quoted differently, we have some work to do to rebase the prices into a comparable format. Given that Heating Oil is quoted in US Dollars and Cents per gallon, while Crude Oil is quoted as US Dollars and Cents per barrel, we can convert Heating Oil to be denominated in barrels.
1 barrel equals to roughly 42 gallons, therefore, we can simply multiply Heating Oil price per gallon by 42 to get its price per Barrel. Given Heating Oil is 2.7505 USD per gallon, this works out to be roughly 115.52 USD per barrel.
This allows us to see the relationship between Heating Oil and Crude oil. The former is trading at a premium to latter.
Over the past winter the Heating Oil premium reached it’s all time high, toping out close to 100 USD per barrel more than Crude Oil. With Spring now in sight, it appears a new season has dawned upon this premium, with the Heating Oil - Crude Oil premium now falling below the previous highs in 2011-2012. Should this continue, then we can expect the price gap between the 2 types of oil to close, with Heating Oil being the likely culprit to drive it lower.
The general downward trend in current Heating Oil prices, falling Heating Oil premiums and historical RSI-based sell trigger, all point towards a potentially lower Heating Oil.
We would consider setting up the trade in the following 2 ways to express our view:
1) Wait for the RSI to cross below 40 and sell, setting the take-profit based on the RSI crossing back above 40 again to close the position. Each 0.0001-point move in Heating Oil Futures Contract is $4.20 USD
2) Trade the spread between Heating Oil and Crude Oil by taking a short position in the CME Heating Oil Futures Contract and a long position in the CME Crude Oil Futures Contract. Given that 1 Heating Oil Contract is for 42,000 gallons, which is equivalent to 1000 barrels, we can Short 1 Heating Oil and Long 1 Crude Oil to form the spread, in order to match the position size of the contracts.
The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Disclaimer:
The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description.
Reference:
www.cmegroup.com
www.cmegroup.com
SANDUSDT Int Daily S/R| Psfp| .618 Fibonacci| Price Action Evening Traders,
Today’s analysis – SANDUSDT- trading towards a key resistance area where a rejection is plausible,
Points to consider,
- Price action impulsive
- Int-Daily S/R Resistance
- .618 Fibonacci Resistance
- Deviation
SANUSDT’s immediate price actin is trading towards a key region where there is resistance confluence with the int-Daily S/R and the .618 Fibonacci, this allows for a bearish bias.
Price action trading around the resistance will increase the probability of a potential deviation.
Overall, in my opinion, SANDUSDT is a valid short with defined risk, price action is to be used upon discretion/ management.
Hope this analysis helps,
Thank you for following my work
And remember,
“Trade the market in front of you, not the one you want!” – Scott Redler
Relative Strength Index (RSI) | Technical Indicator You Must Kno
✳️What is the RSI Indicator
What is the RSI Indicator? The relative strength index is a market indicator that signals when the asset is over-bought or over-sold. This is a momentum-following indicator that measures how fast the price is moving and changing. The RSI uses different types of averages, but its primary purpose is to show whether a trend is strong or weak within a series of prices.
In general, a strong trend is indicated by values close to 100 while a bearish trend is often indicated by a value near 0.
✳️RSI Indicator Settings
The RSI has the standard setting. When you activate the indicator in any platform the defualt setting are 3 values. They are 6, 14 and 24. These are averages. The 30 and 70 value lines are calculated based on the lower and upper values and the middle lines is the oscillar which is a 14 period average. When the 14 period oscillator is above the 24 period is overbought and when the 14 period is below the 6 period is oversold.
✳️Opening Positions on RSI Signals
The main signal the RSI oscillator generates allows defining overbought and oversold price ranges. Although it is frequently used as a filter in systems where the main indicator is a trend one, it might be possible to try trading using RSI signals only. When indicator’s line goes above the level 70 or below the level 30, it signals that market is overbought/oversold, and it is necessary to wait for the next signal confirming a trend reversal.
✳️RSI Trendlines
Contrary to popular belief, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a leading indicator. This quality can be observed by using trendlines on the RSI chart and trading its break. When the RSI is rising, an upward trendline is drawn by connecting two or more lows and projecting the line into the future. Similarly, when the RSI is falling, a downward trendline is drawn by connecting two or more highs and projecting the line into the future. A break of an RSI trendline precedes an actual price reversal or continuation in the market. For instance, if the asset price breaks above a downward trendline, it is a signal that the price is about to edge upwards, either as a continuation of an uptrend or as a reversal of an existing downtrend in the market.
✳️RSI and Chart Patterns
The Relative Strength Index is one of the best technical indicators to complement raw price action signals delivered by candlestick patterns or line chart patterns. For instance, when a bullish candlestick, such as a pin bar, or a price chart pattern, such as a double bottom, occurs in a downtrend, a buy position can be opened when the RSI displays a reading of below 30 to imply oversold conditions.
✳️RSI Divergence
The Relative Strength Index also delivers divergence signals that could be a viable trading opportunity. A divergence occurs when the asset price and RSI do not move in the same direction. A positive (bullish) divergence occurs when the price is drifting lower, but the RSI is edging higher. This is a signal that the price may be heading towards a bottom and an upward reversal is about to happen. On the other hand, a negative (bearish) divergence occurs when the price is drifting higher, but the RSI is going lower. This is a signal that price may be heading towards a top and a downward reversal is about to happen.
✳️RSI and RVI
Both the RSI and the RVI(Relative Vigor Index) are oscillators, but their different qualities can help traders to pick out high-quality RSI trading opportunities in the market. Whereas the RSI focuses on price extremes (high and low), the computation of RVI seeks to relate closing prices to open prices. This means that the RVI has both positive and negative numbers, with the centreline being 0. The RVI gives information on the strength of price movement, with positive values indicating increasing momentum, whereas negative values denote decreasing momentum. The RSI is the best indicator to complement or qualify the signals delivered by the RVI, especially in trending markets. For instance, if the market is in an uptrend and the RVI delivers a bearish divergence signal (prices go higher whereas RVI goes lower). In this case, a retracement or a trend reversal will be confirmed if the RSI reading is above 70, which implies overbought trading conditions.
✳️Here is the list, though now at all exhausting of the ways to use RSI in your trading. I will add that I use it myself, even though you don’t see it on my charts for aesthetic reasons.
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Hey traders, let me know what subject do you want to dive in in the next post?
LITUSDT Weekly S/R| .618 Fibonacci| Price Action| Trend Evening Traders,
Today’s analysis – LITUSDT – rejecting from its .618 Fibonacii and is now trading below key resistance,
Points to consider,
- Price action impulsive
- Daily S/R Resistance
- Weekly S/R Support
- Price Action Range
LITUSDT’s immediate price action is trading under resistance, as long as price stay below, it is likely to trade lower.
The Weekly S/R is the immediate support, holding this area will create a local price action range, allowing for potential accumulation.
How price action trades within the range will dictate the immolate direction
Overall, in my opinion, LITUSDT needs form a constructive range before the next expansion
Hope this analysis helps,
Thank you for following my work
And remember,
“Once you find the system that works for your style/personality and confidence is gained, wash, rinse, repeat over and over again.” – Sunrisetrader
LTCUSDT Int-Weekly S/R| Daily S/R| .618 Fibonacci| VAH Evening Traders,
Today’s analysis – LTCUSDT – trading at a clear resistance where a trend reversal is probable,
Points to consider,
- Price action impulsive
- .618 Fibaoncci Resistance
- Daily S/R Resistance
- VAH Resistance
LTCUSDT’s immediate price action is trading at an area of technical resistance confluence, this allows for a bearish bias.
The area is in confluence with the .618 Fibonacci, VAH, Daily S/R and the Internal Weekly S/R, this deems the area for potential trend reversal.
The immediate objective is the lower Daily S/R Support, a bounce here is likely which will then need a further analysis.
Overall, in my opinion, LTCUSDT is a valid short with defined risk, price action is to be used upon discretion/ management.
Hope this analysis helps,
Thank you for following my work
And remember,
“Confidence is not "I will profit on this trade." Confidence is "I will be fine if I don't profit from this trade.”
― Yvan Byeajee
ATOMUSD Bullish OB| Monthly S/R| Psfp| InternalS/R| PAEvening Traders,
Today’s analysis – ATOMUSD- trading away from a key support region, a pullback needs to hold for a bullish continuation.
Points to consider,
- Price action impulsive
- Monthly S/R Support
- Psfp Liquidity
- Bullish OB Support
- Internal S/R Support
ATOMUSD’s immediate price action is trading with consecutive higher lows, allowing for a bullish bias.
The current level of confluence is situated around the Monthly S/R, this includes the VAH, Psfp, Internal S/R and a Bullish OB.
The overall objective is the Daily S/R, exceeding this level will lead to a trend continuation.
Overall, in my opinion, ATOMUSD is a valid long with defined risk, price action is to be used upon discretion/ management.
Hope this analysis helps,
Thank you for following my work
And remember!,
“It is always the best discretion to let the market show us where it is going and just simply follow (this would be prudent), rather than predict where the market is going and place a position (this would be gambling).” -Anne-Marie Baiynd’
DOTUSDT Range VAL| .618 Fib| Psfp| Price Action Evening Traders,
Today’s analysis – DOTUSDT- rejection of from a key level and is now rotating towards the lows,
Points to consider,
- Price action impulsive
- POC S/R Support
- .618 Fiboancci Support
- Range VAL Support
DOTUSDT’s immediate price action is trading towards an area that has technical confluence with the .618 Fiboancci, VAL and the POC region, this allows for a bullish bias.
Holding support at the technical level will allow for a bounce back towards the range high,
Overall, in my opinion, DOTUSDT is a valid long with defines risk, price action is to be used upon discretion/ management.
Hope this analysis helps
Thank you for following my work
And remember,
“Hope is bogus emotion that only costs you money.” – Jim Cramer
OCEANUSDT Bullish MS| Local Resistance| Higher Low| Liquidity Evening Traders,
Today’s analysis – OCEANUSDT- trading at a local resistance where a rejection is plausible,
Points to consider,
- Price Action Impulsive
- Local Psfp Resistance
- Daily S/R Resistance
- Dynamic S/R Support
- .618 Fibonacci Support
- Local VAH Support
OCEANUSDT’s immediate price action is impulsive, putting a local high here will increase the probability of price action correcting for a higher low.
The local POI will be the Dynamic S/R Support that is in confluence with the Psfp, VAH and .618 Fibonacci, allowing for a bullish bias.
Overall, price action needs to retrace for this trade to become probable, discretion is to be used upon execution/ management.
Hope this analysis helps!
Thank you for following my work
And remember,
“In order to succeed, you first have to be willing to experience failure.”
― Yvan Byeajee,
CRVUSDT Daily S/R| Psfp| .618 Fibonacci| Equal Highs Evening Traders,
Today’s analysis – CRVUSDT – trading in a consolidation with a clear set of equal highs that are likely to get taken,
Points to consider,
- Price action impulsive
- Daily S/R Support
- .618 Fibaoncci Support
- Equal Highs Objective
CRVUSDT’s immidie price action is trading in a consolidation that will breaking in the coming days.
A breaking down needs to hold at the current area of confluence, that is with, the Daily S/R, Psfp, and the .618 Fibaoncci, allowing for a bullish bias.
The immediate objective is the Equal Highs, exveeding this level will lead to a larger rise
Overall, in my opinion, CRVUSDT is a valid long with defined risk, price action is to be used upon discretion/ management.
Hope this analysis helps,
Thank you for following my work
And remember!
“You create your own game in your mind based on your beliefs, intents, perception and rules.”
― Mark Douglas
🔥TOP FIVE INDICATORS FOR BEGINNERS🔥
📊ON-BALANCE VOLUME(OVB) IS:
On-balance volume (OBV) is a technical trading momentum indicator that uses volume flow to predict changes in the price.The theory behind OBV is based on the distinction between smart money – namely, institutional investors – and less sophisticated retail investors. As mutual funds and pension funds begin to buy into an issue that retail investors are selling, volume may increase even as the price remains relatively level. Eventually, volume drives the price upward. At that point, larger investors begin to sell, and smaller investors begin buying.
📊MOVING AVERAGE IS:
A moving average helps cut down the amount of noise on a price chart. Look at the direction of the moving average to get a basic idea of which way the price is moving. If it is angled up, the price is moving up (or was recently) overall; angled down, and the price is moving down overall; moving sideways, and the price is likely in a range.A moving average can also act as support or resistance
📊RELATIVE STRENGTH INDEX IS:
The relative strength index (RSI) is a momentum indicator used in technical analysis. RSI measures the speed and magnitude of the pair’s recent price changes to evaluate overvalued or undervalued conditions in the price of that pair. It can also indicate pairs that may be primed for a trend reversal or corrective pullback in price. It can signal when to buy and sell. The RSI is displayed as an oscillator (a line graph) on a scale of zero to 100Traditionally, an RSI reading of 70 or above indicates an overbought situation. A reading of 30 or below indicates an oversold condition.
📊BOLLINGER BANDS ARE:
Bollinger Bands are a form of technical analysis that traders use to plot trend lines that are two standard deviations away from the simple moving average price of a security. The goal is to help a trader know when to enter or exit a position by identifying when an asset has been overbought or oversold. Bollinger Bands were designed by John Bollinger. Bollinger Bands help by signaling changes in volatility. For generally steady ranges of a security, such as many currency pairs, Bollinger Bands act as relatively clear signals for buying and selling
📊MOVING AVERAGE CONVERGENCE DIVERGENCE(MACD) IS:
The concept behind the MACD is fairly straightforward. Essentially, it calculates the difference between an instrument's 26-day and 12-day exponential moving averages (EMA). In calculating their values, both moving averages use the closing prices of whatever period is measured. On the MACD chart, a nine-period EMA of the MACD itself is also plotted. This line is called the signal line, which acts as a trigger for buy and sell decisions. The MACD is considered the "faster" line because the points plotted move more than the signal line, which is regarded as the "slower" line.
I Hope you guys learned something new today✅
Wish you all Best Of Luck👍
😇And may the odds be always in your favor😇
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ETHUSDT Monthly S/R| HTF .618 | Psfp | Price Action Evening Traders,
Today’s analysis- ETHUSDT- trading at a key resistance zone where a rejection lower is possible,
Points to consider,
- Price action impulsive
- Monthly S/R Resistance
- HTF .618 Fiboancci Resistance
- Sfp-entry area
ETHUSDT’s immediate price action is trading in a zone that is considered resistance due to technical confluence such as the Monthly S/R, HTF .618 and Psfp, allowing for a bearish bias.
The immediate objective will be the low Psfp, this is an area of resting liquidity this a magnet for price action.
Overall, in my opinion, ETHUSDT is a valid short with defined risk, price action is to be used upon discretion/ management.
Hope this analysis helps,
Thank you for following my work
And remember,
“If you don’t respect risk, eventually they’ll carry you out.” – Larry Hite
USDJPY Weekly S/R| VAL| Psfp| Price Action Evening Traders,
Today’s analysis – USDJPY – trading at a key level of support where a bounce towards the highs is probable,
Points to consider,
- Price Action corrective
- Daily S/R support
- VAL Support
- Channel low
USDJPY’s immediate price action is trading towards an area that is in technical confluence with the .618 Fibonacci, Weekly S/R, VAL and the Psfp, allowing for a bullish bias.
Breaking out of the current channel will signify a change in market structure, this will mean a new higher high.
The immediate objective is the Daily S/R, exceeding this level will lead to high targets.
Overall, in my opinion, USDJPY is a valid long with defined risk, price action is to be used upon discretion/ management.
Hope this analysis helps!,
Thank you for following my work
And remember,
Trading is mostly a waiting game. if you want action that happens on your own terms, you’re in the wrong field.
EURUSD POC/ Daily S/R| .618 Fibonacci| Price Action Evening Traders,
Today’s Forex Analysis – EURUSD – trading directly at its VAH where a rejection is plausible,
Points to consider,
- Price action impulsive
- POC S/R Support
- Daily S/R Support
- .618 Fibonacci Confluence
- Psfp Confluence
EURUSD’s immediate price action is rejection from its VAH, increasing the probability of a pull back into support confluence of the POC, Daily S/R, .618 Fibonacci and Psfp – allowing for a bullish bias.
The immediate objective is the Daily S/R, exceeding this level will lead to a trend continuation and an establishment of a higher low.
Overall, in my opinion, EURUSD is a valid long with defined risk, price action is to be used upon discretion/ management.
Hope this analysis helps!
Thank you for following my work
And remember,
“Sometimes the best trade is no trade.” – Anonymous
SOLUSDT Bullish uptrend| Local PA Range| Daily S/R| .618 Evening Traders,
Today’s analysis – SOLUSDT- trading in a defined range where an up-thrust into resistance is probable,
Points to consider,
- Price action impulsive
- Daily S/R Support
- .618 Fibonacci Support
- MS Higher Low
SOLUSDT’s immediate price action is impulsive, it is potentially establishing a higher low that is in confluence with the .618 Fibonacci, Daily S/R and the VAL, allowing for a bullish bias.
The immediate market structure remains bullish, thus, there is a higher probability of price action testing resistance again.
Overall, in my opinion, SOLUSDT is a valid long with defined risk, price action is to be used upon discretion/ management.
Hope this analysis helps,
Thank you for following my work
And remember,
If you can’t take a small loss, sooner or later you will take the mother of all losses.” – Ed Seykota
GMTUSDT Daily S/R| .618 Fibonacci| Price Action| Trend Evening Traders,
Today’s analysis – GMTUSDT- trading towards a clear support level where a bounce is probable,
Points to consider,
- Price Action Corrective
- Daily S/R Support
- .618 Fibonacci Support
- Bullish Order Block
GMTUSDT’s immediate price action is coming close towards a support level that is in technical confliuenc with a Daily S/R and the .618 Fiboancci, allowing for a bullih bias.
The immediate objective is the Daily S/R Resistance, exceeding this level will lead to a bullish continuation.
Overall, in my opinion, GMTUSDT is a Valid long with defined risk, price action is to be used upon discretion/ management.
Hope this analysis helps,
Thank you for following my work
And remember,
“When you learn to let go of the need to be right, being wrong gradually lose its power to disturb you.”
― Yvan Byeajee