BTCUSD 1D Renko Chart with CM_Trendbars, EMAs and a custom DMIThis 1D BTCUSD chart is based on Renko Candlesticks, the CM_Trendbars, 4 EMA (9,15,21,55) and a custom DMI.
Renko Chart patterns come from Japan, and they apparently mean 'brick'. They are a cousin of the Heikin Ashi candlestick patterns, using weighted calculations of the OHLC (open, high, low, close) but without the time. Renko candlesticks are now well know but there are sections of the trading community that strongly believe in them. The candlesticks are built using price only, rather than time and volume. This design helps filter out minor price movements to make it easier for traders to focuso on the important trends. Renko charts are not for the day trader, they are really suitable for longer term trend traders that have patience and are waiting for the right types of setups. Each bar represents a set change in price, for example I have set BTC at $50 USD. Renko can be used to add confluence to other indicators and enter into less risky trend trades.
The Renko chart has clearly bearish since the 9th of November, with BTC breaking below the long held resistance line at 6484 and rapidly dropping to 3900 before finally bouncing off 3300's. This has clearly been rejected on the 17th of December when we moved from 3382 to 3938 in two days with a forecasted target of 4416 representing the next area of resistance. I conservative trader would wait for a line of resistance to be broken, and then enter the trade with more confidence, so if 4100 area
Moving Averages, are widely used and one of the most important technical indicators. There are two commonly used MAs, SMA and EMA. SMA (Simple MA) simply takes adds up the closing price over a given period say, 5 days, and divides that number by the number of periods. Eg, 10,12,14,16,18 = 70/5 = 14. The EMA (Exponential) then weights those numbers to place greater significance on the more recent price data points. I use the EMA as it tends to provide a more relevant indicator of recent/current and therefore possible future price actions. I use 5 EMA's on this chart, based on Fibonacci numbers (9,15,21,55,200).
The EMA's have been clearly bullish since the 9th of November, with a good spread between the difference EMA, until the 9,15 and touch the candlestick bodies early in December. They then continued down, although more weakly then the previous move until we hit the 3300 level of resistance. With little price movement and contracting price bands the EMA were gradually leveling off. Then on the 17-19th we have seen the price clearly cross the 9,15 and 21 day EMA with the 55EMA in ear shot. The 200 EMA is at 5200, so we are still 1000+ clear of that target.
THE DMI (Directional Movement Index/Indicator) measures the MA of a price change over a given period of time, 15 days in my case. The DMI is popular with trend traders because it provides clarity on the strength and direction of a trend. There are three lines, the +DMI or +DI in green, the -DMI or -DI which is in the red, and the ADX which is an weighted average of the two that tells up are we trending down/up. Basically when the green crosses over the red, and also the yellow, with conviction we have a strong bullish trend in play. Vice versa. The line on the top, is referred to as the 'dominate DMI'. The long the the MA has remained in a tight price band, the more likely an outbreak will be substantial.
The DMI presented a very clear signal from since the crossover on the 7th of November to it's peak in divergence on the 24th of November. The -DMI and the ADX were clearly trending bearish. What could be interpreted a false bounce/price reversal occurred from the crossover bullish on the 25th of November to the bearish cross over on the 3rd of December. The bearish trend continued until the 7th of November then we started to see some divergence between price (that continued to drop) and the -DMI that weakened in strength. This was a signal that the strength of the bull trend was weakening. Since the 17th of December we have seen both the -DMI and the ADX weaken rapidly, finally crossing the +DMI on the 19th of December. This is set up represents a low risk entry, as the -DMI has managed to go from below the 25 level, confidently cross the -DMI/ADX and also the price has broken a major S&R level.
