Resistances
Potential Short OpportunityFollowing my previous post, I can now suggest a more accurate entry point where we may consider taking a short position.
Not gonna lie, this is a rather complicated situation we find ourselves in...Personally, all of this seems like a huge retracement wanting to close in very soon, and we are approaching a crucial resistance area which should be taken into accountability. 7900-8000 level seems reasonable to me to open shorts, simply due to the fact that it outlines with our 0.618 Fib retracement level, and also some previous major support/resistance levels looking back historically. BUT, we also have a rather strong resistance being presented around 8250 level. Looking at some other exchanges like the CME for example, this resistance seems to be more crucial there rather than the one outlined on our BitMEX exchange. Due to this reason in particular, I have placed a rather high SL in order to give the market more space to play out between these two resistance levels. Hopefully we manage to see a rejection off the 7900 and follow a bearish impulse wave to lock in profits. However, these are very volatile times right now and anything can happen.
That's my 2 cents on the case. Hopefully it made sense, and leave a like if you agree or found this to be beneficial in any way. View my previous post for more fundamental analysis of the scenario here, but other than that, my technicals remain bearish.
This is NOT a financial advice, trade at your own risk.
Today Pivot Points Support and Resistance | Try itI calculate the important lines of support and resistance in my own way. They are good for determining the end or beginning of new trends, as well as for intraday trading and swing trading. In any case, this is a very important confirming moment for my trading strategy. Try it and tell me your opinion. Thank!
TICKER S3 S2 S1 Pivot Point R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.072 1.077 1.08 1.086 1.09 1.095 1.1
USD/JPY 106.572 106.967 107.213 107.673 108.019 108.396 108.753
GBP/USD 1.223 1.23 1.236 1.243 1.25 1.255 1.261
AUD/USD 0.62 0.625 0.63 0.634 0.64 0.643 0.648
USD/CHF 0.959 0.962 0.966 0.969 0.973 0.976 0.979
NZD/USD 0.584 0.59 0.593 0.599 0.604 0.609 0.614
USD/CAD 1.384 1.393 1.4 1.409 1.418 1.425 1.433
NZDUSD Trend Continuation In Channel PatternNZDUSD is trading in channel pattern. it may continue its trend channel pattern. If it breaks the channel pattern on either side, we might see small profit booking as pair already given a price rally. So, we might see consolidation in price at resistance or support zone level.
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Brace Yourselves | Consolidation Coming to an EndSo, this past week was rather flat for Bitcoin in comparison to the previous ones. We saw the market consolidate further up but essentially become flat due to the very important resistance level of 6900. We saw it retest the resistance MULTIPLE times on the lower time frames, and yet, failed to breakout of it every, single, time. Despite the positivity coming from the global markets this week, Bitcoin didn't seem to correlate much within their volatility as it did before. Sellers are still in charge and they are refusing to be fooled by the news trying to say "everything is alright, the collapse is over". No, it is not over, it is merely a pullback before another upcoming dump and Bitcoin investors are well aware of it. Should we see a possible chance of breaking above our consolidating wedge, then we will instantly see a huge wave of FOMO buying power coming into play, which will ultimately boost Bitcoins price higher...but do you really think this will be the case?
CME futures are going to be closing in the next 8 hours of the time of writing this and Bitcoin is circulating around their major resistance area as well for now. A lot of volatility usually comes in before closure time, where we will see huge moves being made by either sellers or buyers, giving us a better perspective of which direction the volatility will head onwards. My bias remains bearish (as stated within the previous posts), and I'll be looking to take further shorts if we manage to reach our resistance levels of 6800-6900 again. Should we see a clear breakout of the ascending trendline and the current level of support around 6400, then I'm afraid it's all going to be downhill from there FAST. Sunday will definitely open up with a huge gap on the CME futures, the question is, are you ready for it?
The mining industry is also looking interesting for Bitcoin at the moment. As soon as the mining difficulty dropped by 16%, we instantly saw the BTC hash rate pump up from 75m TH/s, all the way to 113m TH/s. I guess everybody turned on their farms again once they saw how much lower the difficulty dropped. Normally this is a positive sign for the Crypto markets, but we didn't see it react to that point as much, which further gives me these bearish insights.
Either way though, let's see how we close off this week. I will keep this post updated if anything changes.
If you found this post useful in any way, feel free to leave a 'Like', it will be highly appreciated!
This is NOT a financial advice, trade at your own risk!
VIX - fear index analysisHello traders,
Description of the analysis:
Vix is currently in extreme resistance +-50 to strong resistance but there is room for its further growth to 90. The unpredictable coronavir fundament can cause further declines. Be careful, but there is slowly room to build your long positions from the long term.
About me:
Hi, my name is Jacob Kovarik and I´m trading on stock exchange since 2008. I started with a capital of 3000 USD. My first strategy was based on OTM options. (American stock index and their ETF ). I´ve learnt on my path that professional trading is based on two main fundaments which have to complement each other, to make a bussiness attitude profitable. I´ve tried a lot of techniques and many manners how to analyze the market. From basic technical analysis to fundamental analysis of single title. My analytics gradually changed into professional attitude. I work with logical advantages of stock exchange (return of value back to average, volume , expected volatility , advantage of high stop-loss, the breakdown of time in options, statistics and cosistent thorough control of risk). At the moment, my main target is ITM on SPM index. Biggest part of my current bussiness activity comes from e mini futures (NQ, ES). I´m trader of positions. I´m from Czech republic and I take care of a private fund (700 000 USD). During my career I´ve earned a lot of valuable experience, such as functionality of strategies and what is more important, control of emotions. Professional trading is, in my opinion, certain kind of mental training and if we are able to control our emotions, accomplishment will show up. I will share with you my analysis and trades on my profile. I wish to all of you successul trades.
Jacob Kovarik
Confluence of resistance on EURUSDHi pros!
there is a confluence of resistance which where rejected by the price
CR is composed of:
-up trendline
-down trendline
-horizontal resistance
-0.618 fibonacci
There is a very high probablity for price to fall again and possibly continue the downtrend
Let's short this market aiming for a lower low
GBPAUD: SHORT TRADE IDEA (250 PIPS REWARD)GBPAUD is looking bearish as buyers are losing hold from the 61.8% fibonacci level, Hopefully bearish sentiment continues with this momentum and drive price downwards towards 1.9300 level(TP level). This would certainly be a move for next week.
Risk Warning : The risk of loss in trading Foreign Exchange (FOREX) can be substantial.
You should therefore carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in the light of your financial condition.
Goodluck !
Happy Friday :)
bracketing the market frm 2600-2660this is a continuation of the previous episode of "sideway market@ very boring market"...
now we zoom in into 15-min chart...
support - - 2600, IF price breaks lower than this, THEN consider short...
resistance- - 2660, IF price moves higher than this, THEN consider long...
WARNING : this is definitely not a recommendation to buy or sell, it is juz my trading journal and the implication of how I apply "IF>>THEN" syntax
BNB, Resist @ $26.25, $30, $35, $43 – eventually $200I started buying BNB when it was around $2.50 but had sold all my holdings last year to pay for software development. I recently started buying back in as BNB broke out of a 7 month descending pattern at the beginning of February. But it was more than just breaking out of a 7 month descending pattern that is worth noticing. BNB had also crashed through the 2 year ascending trendline in a clear retention of the 7 month descending pattern over the 2 year support. It should be noted this very closely mimics BTC which had an almost 7 month descending channel, saw a bottom on the same day (16.Dec.2019) but BTC broke out of its descending channel mid-January, 2 weeks before BNB. There are still numerous others reaching breakout points soon, BTC willing.
As of yesterday, 9.Feb,2020, we managed to surge back up above the two year trendline but we were stopped at a fairly strong historical horizontal resistance around $26.25. Not shown completely in this chart, this line also is the cap of a previous ATH along and as acting support last summer. This could be a fairly tough resistance to break and we haven’t even fully established that we will retain our position back on top of the major ascending trend line yet. This seems to leave a fairly good opportunity for a small wedge to form here. In the event that we do wedge here, look for a break out very early march.
We could keep running up from here but just as we stumbled at $26.50, we can expect a good chance of another noticeable hiccup at $30 where we see $30 logical resistance, some recent previous soft resistance/support and a potential diagonal trend resistance. Past $30 we will see 2x or 3x soft resistance at $35 and then a potential hard resistance at our previous ATH around $43.
I believe gauging against similar traditional market valuations, not even counting future growth, BNB is hugely undervalued and really should be around $200 a piece, conservatively. So what to expect next, -A fairly significant resistance at $26.25 , less but notable resistance at $30 , a small hiccup at $35 and a fight for the ATH after that. In the short term keep an eye on that 2 year resistance, if we fall back under and find it as resistance again, it’s a strong sell signal. Long-Term, I see a hold to $200 then re-evaluate. It may take a couple years but $200 is coming . (See fundamentals overview below)
Fundamentals:
I can trade BNB long with confidence because I have a great deal of faith in its long term price action. There is a lot of angst against Binance in the crypto community but not only did/does Binance provide a lot of projects liquidity that they needed to get this far, they have worked tremendous legislation efforts enabling numerous countries a gateway into crypto. Binance has also have been buying back and burning BNB with some of their profits every quarter. And lets talk about those profits, $1Billion profit a year with a $3Billion market cap. Schwab and TDA trade at a 30 P/E and here, BNB is literally the only crypto traditional markets can valuate with a 3 P/E, its valuated at 1/10th of traditional stock brokers. It should also be noted not only do they own the majority of the lucrative and ever growing crypto exchange market, they now have a BAAS chain to compete with Ethereum, they have also started making a lot of really smart acquisitions, making them closer to a “google of crypto”. I think that this is one of the provably most undervalued crtypto’s in existence today.
This is not investment advice, merely observations from my point of view, DYOR.
Also please consider looking at depth metrics at vcdepth.io, we have partnered with TV to bring TV charts to the site. Here is a snapshot showing how we often see a prelude to a price drop when there is a spike in bids that is not directly related to a price run.
CLS Short again on overextended buyingWeekly analysis:
- Huge move up, broke resistance at 160 and instantly went to penetrate 165. Move is too fast without resting
- Topping tail
- Good move down to 1.1 R without much resistance
Daily analysis:
- Nice long topping tail with decent volume
- 2 Huge green candle up not much resistance going down
Intraday analysis:
- End the day with a inverted hammer with decent volume (bearish)
Main concerns:
- Volume on the topping tail candle today is not a stand out volume, just slightly higher compared to average bearish volume
- Counter trend trade, unable to have bigger targets. Stick with 50% retracement to be safe which is about 1.1 R
OAX PRICE NEAR RESISTANCE | 100 EMA approaching price near resistance if turns resistance into support it can pump 10% very easy within one day
CLX overextended and inverted hammerWeekly analysis:
- Breakout at around 160 did not had any consolidation period. Notice the first breakout at 153.5 had some consolidation before. The second breakout at around 160 had long wicks and only took 2 weekly candles
- Stock is likely tired from the accelerated breakout attempt with almost no consolisation.
- Inverted hammer forming at resistance zone
Daily analysis:
- Inverted hammer at resistance around 160 with about x3 the normal volume
- 10 Green candles in a row. Stock has a high probability of being tired
- Price quite far from SMAs 50 and 100
- Not much resistance going down
Intraday analysis:
- 2 lower highers and lower lows on 27th Jan. Both highs had quite a long wick.
- After hours trading had a price spike but volume is quite insignificant. (Still slightly concerning)
Visa Psychological Resistance 200Possible psychological resistance at $200 a share, wouldn't recommend shorting this as this is a very consistent stock, providing steady returns, however it will be interesting to see what occurs once price has broken the $200 milestone. Also sitting at top of regression trend, which may lead to a small pullback
BTC/USD at important levelLooking at daily chart , BTC price hit important resistance creating by midterm downtrend line and MA200 , price retesting also previous broken uptrend line like a new resistance . Worth to watch how will close today and next D1 candles. if bulls will step in near 7800USD , price can move up higher, if not, we will test lower supports soon.
Setup with a nice RR ratioFX:GBPAUD
Currently the price makes a consolidation against the primary uptrend.
Considering that the overall trend is quite bullish, movement to the long direction is more likely sooner or later. The trend makes it possible to trade with nice RR ratio.
As always we cannot expect any movements from the market. Therefore, I marked the support with blue line where we have to pay attention.
If this is broken down then the first potential profit zone is marked with green line.
If the resistance marked with blue line is broken out then it is highly probable that our first profit zone will be reached on the green line. As in a bullish trend try to focus on further profit zones. This secondary profit zone is marked with blue rectangle and calculated from the daily chart with Fibo.
This setup needs to be redrawn if the price breaks down the support.
EURAUD resistanceAs shown, in the yellow area we can observe price resistance, where the market failed to break through each wick and currently has started to drop. On the daily chart, we can observe a change of trend - proceeding downtrend and as the market retraces, we look for sells.
Change of trend - 3 wicks that show resistance - pullback on the daily chart.
A blue line has been marked where you can enter the trade, as the price has been dropping and jumping on a mid trade wouldn't be efficient. Look for pullbacks and enter for a sell.
Next for BITCOIN: was it a bear trap??Hi all,
First of all thanks for the likes and dm's about the BTC idea from yesterday. Appreciate that :)
In front of you the 4hr chart of bitcoin.
Yesterday I published a possible descending triangle formation, but after the move of 12hr ago there is also another possibility. The strong support and strong resistance where broke LIKE NOTHING. That was a great bullish move (Broke s/r) . This could be a bear trap.....
So the symmetrical triangle could be still active.
If it is indeed a bear trap the price must bounce quickly and strong on the strong support. The next hours are important. If it bounce, btc will stay in the new triangle for the next days.
But... If it fails to test the strong support it will go back to the 9400 area. If that happens the descending triangle will still in play, in the chart you see a light grey line what will be te support of the descending triangle.
The idea of yesterday of the descending triangle:
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Thanks!