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Unlocking 2024: New Year Resolutions for Traders 📊🎉Hello TradingView Family, this is Richard, and I want to wish you all a Happy New Year. As we embark on a fresh trading journey in 2024, let's commit to success. Here are six trading dos and don'ts to guide us to a prosperous year ahead! 🌟 #NewYearNewTrades 📌Dos: ------ 💹 Quantum Leap Mastery: Elevate your trading game with quantum computing finesse. Delve into the quantum frontier to revolutionize your analytical prowess and stay ahead of market dynamics. 🌊 Zen Trader Mindset: Infuse mindfulness into your trading routine. Meditate to sharpen focus, maintain emotional balance, and cultivate the calm needed to navigate the stormy seas of the financial markets. 🌱 Green Investment Oasis: Transform your portfolio into an eco-friendly haven. Invest in sustainable enterprises, aligning your financial goals with a commitment to a greener and socially responsible future. 💪 Crypto Gym Workout: Treat cryptocurrencies like a dynamic workout. Regularly flex your knowledge muscles to keep up with the ever-evolving crypto landscape. Adapt and incorporate new technologies and tokens into your trading regimen. 🤖 AI Symbiosis Champion: Embrace artificial intelligence as your trading ally. Master the art of synergizing human intuition with cutting-edge machine learning models to make informed decisions in the ever-evolving financial landscape. 🌐 Global Macro Maestro: Become a maestro of global macroeconomics. Develop a nuanced understanding of geopolitical events, economic policies, and their impact on markets. Let your trading decisions resonate with a symphony of global financial insights. 📌Don'ts: ------ 💢 FOMO Detox Retreat : Break free from the fear of missing out. Establish a disciplined approach and resist impulsive trading decisions fueled by market hype. Not every trend is a golden opportunity; discernment is key. ⏪ Overleveraging Rehab: Embark on a journey of overleveraging detox. Opt for a risk management strategy that preserves your investments. Shun the allure of excessive leverage and prioritize the long-term health of your portfolio. 📵 Influencer Mirage Avoidance: Don't let social media influencers dictate your trades. Filter out the noise and focus on fundamental analysis. Flashy social media posts don't always translate to sound investment advice. 🔄 Prediction Addiction Intervention: Break the cycle of prediction addiction. Acknowledge the unpredictability of markets and cultivate adaptability. Develop a flexible strategy that thrives in the face of unexpected events. ⚖️ News Overdose Balance: Maintain a healthy news consumption diet. While staying informed is crucial, too much news can lead to information overload. Choose reliable sources, strike a balance, and avoid unnecessary stress in your trading journey. 🚫 Hype Bubble Avoidance: Steer clear of hype bubbles. Be it in stocks, cryptocurrencies, or emerging markets, exercise caution and perform thorough due diligence. Prudent decision-making beats riding speculative waves. 💼 May your 2024 trading journey be a symphony of strategic brilliance and disciplined. 📚 Always adhere to your trading plan, including entry points, risk management, and trade management. Happy New Year Everyone 🎊 ~Richard Nasr
by TheSignalyst
28
CoCos: Quirky yet intriguing ‘hybrid’ instruments with a twistThere are a variety of risks to consider when investing in AT1 Contingent Convertible bonds (affectionately known as ‘CoCos’). These financial instruments, issued by financial institutions, may appear peculiar on first inspection but, once you get to know these quirky financial instruments better, you will better appreciate their unique risk/return profile. CoCos stand out as hybrid instruments, blending the characteristics of bonds and equity. They possess a fascinating duality: on one hand, they behave like fixed income products, offering investors regular interest payments; on the other hand, they can convert into equity under specific predefined conditions or can be written down under specific circumstances. This unique combination allows CoCos to dance between the worlds of debt and equity. CoCos are high yield instruments, and this high yield comes from a variety of risk compensations. We focus here on three of them: conversion risk, extension risk and viability risk. Conversion risk: the dramatic metamorphosis One of the key risks associated with CoCos is conversion risk or write-down risk. These instruments typically have a predetermined conversion trigger, such as a decline in the issuer's capital ratio, like Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1), or a specific regulatory event. When the trigger is hit, the CoCos undergo a dramatic metamorphosis, transforming from debt into equity or can become virtually worthless. In the waterfall structure, they sit between equity and subordinated debt. Conversion risk is, therefore, higher than default risk on the subordinated bonds of the same issuer. That is already something! Extension risk: when time tests your patience Imagine waiting for a bus that keeps getting delayed, leaving you unsure of when it will finally arrive. That's the feeling of extension risk in the world of CoCos, since these instruments come with a feature that allows the issuer to extend the maturity date without a penalty (step-up). As an investor, this can make it challenging to predict the exact timing of cash flows, adding an element of uncertainty to your investment horizon. Rising interest rates can be a double-edged sword. On the one hand, they are typically good for the financial sector and, therefore, reduce the conversion risk. On the other hand, they can have a significant negative impact on CoCos, especially in terms of their call features. Unlike traditional bonds that often feature step-ups, which progressively increase the spreads over time in case the bonds are not called at the given call dates, CoCos lacks such provisions. This absence of step-ups makes it economically beneficial for the issuer not to call the CoCos bond early, particularly in a rising interest rate environment. By allowing the bond to remain outstanding, the issuer can take advantage of the higher prevailing interest rates and continue paying the existing coupon, potentially saving on borrowing costs. However, from an investor's perspective, this prolonged maturity can present challenges. As interest rates rise, the market value of fixed-rate instruments tends to decline. Investors may find themselves holding CoCos with coupons that are comparatively less attractive in the prevailing interest rate environment. Moreover, the extended maturity period can delay the return of principal, affecting investment liquidity and potentially tying up capital for a longer period than anticipated. To call a bond or not is the decision of the issuer. Besides economic arguments, reputational arguments also come into play. Some issuers, although it may be economically reasonable not to call, will not want to snub their investors base and prefer, for reputational matters, to call anyway. Quantifying the exact risk is not an exact science. Recently, all bonds that come at their first call dates have been called. Regulatory risk: the viability trigger As we have learned in the Credit Suisse case, this is another crucial aspect to consider. The viability trigger represents the point at which the issuer's financial health is deemed to be at risk by the regulator, even in cases where capital ratios like CET1 are well above their trigger levels. Hence, CoCos can also be triggered by regulatory intervention. If the viability trigger is activated, the CoCos might undergo conversion or be written off altogether. It is important to note that the ‘permanent write-down’ is unique to Swiss issuances. This risk factor underscores the importance of staying abreast of regulatory developments and their potential impact on the investment. As illustrated by the Credit Suisse case, the classic waterfall structure was not respected, wherein CoCos were written down to zero while keeping equity alive. The EU/UK regulators have been almost screaming that this is not possible under their framework. And indeed, the EU point of non-viability (PONV) powers are written into statutory law within the Bank Resolution and Recovery Directive (BRRD), that clearly stipulates that instruments can only be written down to zero if shareholders have been fully wiped out and, hence, respecting the bankruptcy waterfall. Note that in contrast to Switzerland, where it is relatively easy to use the emergency law and pass an ordinance (or add clarifications) over a weekend (as happened during the recent Credit Suisse rescue operation), the complexity of the EU, where all EU countries must agree (and in addition a valuation exercise must be carried out), makes this virtually impossible to do over a weekend or short periods of time. The CoCo coupon conundrum Given the assortment of risks CoCos bring to the table, it's no surprise that these quirky instruments tend to offer high coupons. Investors demand compensation for taking on the additional uncertainties associated with conversion risk, extension risk and regulatory risk. While these higher coupon rates can be alluring, it's essential to thoroughly assess the underlying risks and evaluate whether the potential rewards are worth the rollercoaster ride. CoCos offer a blend of fixed income stability with the tantalising potential for equity-like gains. Conversion risk, extension risk and regulatory risk are the hurdles that come with this unique territory. By diligently understanding these risks, CoCos are, perhaps, the quirky kid one starts to like. This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
AMEX:DHY
by aneekaguptaWTE
Happy New Year TradingView Family - 13 dos and don'ts!Hello TradingView Family, this is Richard, and I want to wish you all a Happy New Year! Here are the main pieces of advice I would give to myself when I first started. Let me know your thoughts... 📉 1- Stop searching for signals, fund management services. You chose trading to be your own boss, don't insist on being a follower. If 90% of traders lose money, then to be profitable, you should stay away from the crowd and trade differently. The only way to make money in trading, is to learn how to trade by yourself and to be in full control of your account . 📊 2- Think quality, not quantity. You don’t have to trade every week, you don’t have to catch every trade. 2-3 trades per week are enough for a healthy consistent account growth. We are snipers, we wait patiently for the perfect shot, and let the machine-gunners/traders die at the front row. 💻 3- We are Risk managers, not only traders. While trading is nothing but a game of probabilities; Your main job is to find a well-defined strategy that gives you an edge over the market. Keep in mind that your strategy has to be objective / rule-based. 💰 4- Do not doubt your strategy or entry just because your fellow traders offline/online disagree with your position direction. Be fully confident in yourself and your trading plan. 🗒 5- Stop searching for new methodologies. If your strategy is working for you Then focus on developing it. You have got a money machine. Just like when you get married. You chose to spend the rest of your life with your partner, knowing that you may find someone better, smarter, more beautiful… but you are done searching. (Unless you want to cheat on your partner lol) 🕝 6- Think long term => 6 months – 1 Year NOT Daily– Weekly. 🔒 7- Always use stop-loss Trading without a stop loss is like driving without a seat belt. One accident might ruin your life. ✏️ 8- Enter with fixed risk per trade. Not fixed lot, not fixed number of pips => Professional traders think risk NOT pips. 💡 9- Treat the market like a trader, not an investor. Don’t get attached to one single trade. It is just one in a lengthy series of trades. ⚙️ 10- If you are not feeling well, don’t trade. 👑 11- Stay humble, or you will be humbled by the market. ♟ 12- We do not predict, we simply speculate and react. Just like chess, let the market make the first move and then react accordingly. 💂 13- Find a mentor. Learn from those who are more experienced than you and surround yourself with talent; By keeping an eye on how veteran traders invest, you’ll begin to understand how they think and make crucial trading decisions. Again, Happy New Year Everyone! May 2023 be the best of all! 🎊 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. And Remember: All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
Education
by TheSignalyst
50
The unknown obvious: resolution vs timeframeChart resolution and chart timeframes are the synonyms, true, but the difference between resolution based mindset and timeframe based mindset is huge. As it is in reality, pure charts are just tick charts that then get aggregated, mostly by time. So it's all the same data, just different amount in different detail. If you operate manually you free to scroll through all the resolutions, generally from lower to higher to gain all the information you need in best possible way. So you mindset is this, "I need more info ima be scrolling through resolutions and be gaining it". The term "timeframe" is much more applicable for automated trading. There, it's very complicated to use multiple resolutions at the same time for many reasons, instead it's easier to use multiple data ranges within one resolution. For example, you run a bot (not robot) on 1 minute chart, this bot executes & fine tunes the signals based on very short window of 4 datapoints, generates the actual signals based on 16 datapoint window, chooses a signal generation method based on 64 last datapoints, and chooses between competing assets based window length 256. Then you ran an ensemble of these bots on every 'timeframe', this way you can emulate but never achieve a proper manual operation. And it's good to use common but different methods on each of data windows to reduce correlations inside the ensemble, not like it's shown on my chart (disregard the levels).
CME_MINI:NQ1!Education
by gorx1
New Year 2022's Resolutions for All TRADERS_*__*___*____*_____*______*_______* HAPPY NEW YEAR _______* ______*_____*____*__*_ 0-set your own prioritizes again: 1-Get to know yourself better before trading . 2-Get healthier in all aspects. 3-Forgive yourself for your previous failings. 4-Break large goals down into smaller ones. 5-Upgrade your trading plan 6-Discipline to new Trading Plan 7-Diligently Making Analysis 8-Improve on your risk management strategy 9-begin with a demo testing . 10-Keep your goals focused on performance, not capital necessarily . 11-Track your progress 12-minimize your risks and Cut Losses Short 13-know when to be aggressive and when to be defensive in trading 14-maximize your profit and Let The Winners Run 15-distantce your ego and emotional reactions from your trading 16-Go beyond by auto-trading(algorithmic-trading 17-Reward yourself for sticking with your resolutions. 18-take away from misleading social medias 19-consistancy and perseverance are vital 20-define right position sizing for your strategy 21-foces more on your risk/reward ratio not high wining rate 22-create a great watchlist and trade on a few, and never overtrade
FTX:BTCUSDEducation
by PRO_SMART_Trader
NEW YEAR's Resolutions! May 2021 be the best of all!Prepare yourself for a Great 2021! Here are the main pieces of advice I would give to myself when I was first started. Let me know your thoughts... 1- Stop searching for signals, fund management gurus unless you want to lose more money. You chose forex to be your own boss, why do you insist on being a follower? If 90% of traders lose money, then to be profitable, you should stay away from the crowd and trade differently. The only way to make money, in forex or trading in general, is to trade by yourself and to be in full control of your account by following a well-defined trading plan that you implement objectively like a robot. ----------------------------- 2- You don’t have to trade every week, you don’t have to catch every trade. 2-3 trades per week are enough for healthy consistent account growth. We are snipers, we wait patiently for the perfect shot, and let the machine-gunners/traders die in the front. ----------------------------- 3- Call us Risk managers, not only traders. As the only thing we have control on is "Risk". While trading is nothing but a game of probabilities; all you need to do is to find a well-defined strategy that gives you an edge over the market. Keep in mind that your strategy has to be objective, and can be based on pure price action and/or include indicators. ----------------------------- 4- Do not doubt your strategy or your entry just because your fellow traders offline/online disagree with your position direction. Remember: The odds of being right aren’t with the crowd. I want you to be fully confident in yourself and your trading plan. I want you to look at the mirror, and say “I am the best trader I know” ----------------------------- 5- Stop searching for new methodologies. If your strategy is giving you profit. Then focus on it and repeat. You have got a money machine. Just like when you get married. You chose to spend the rest of your life with your partner, knowing that you may find someone better, smarter, more beautiful… but you are done searching. (Unless you want to cheat on your partner) ----------------------------- 6- Think long term => 6 months – 1 Year and NOT weekly – monthly. ----------------------------- 7- Always use stop-loss => Trading without a stop loss is like driving without a seat belt. ----------------------------- 8- Enter with a fixed risk per trade. Not fixed lot => Professional traders think risk, amateurs or scammers count pips. Do not trust anyone who shows his/her results in pips. ----------------------------- 9- Think quality, not quantity => We are snipers, we just sit back patiently and wait for the perfect shot, while shotgun traders die at the front line. ----------------------------- 10- Treat the market like a trader, not an investor => Don’t get attached to one single trade. It is just one in a lengthy series of trades. ----------------------------- 11- If you are not feeling well, don’t trade => You don’t have to trade every week; you don’t have to catch every trade. ----------------------------- 12- Stay humble, or you will be humbled by the market. If you know a trader whose ego is through the roof, he is not a trader. You may call him an analyst, instructor, or even a scammer, but not a trader. ----------------------------- 13- We do not predict, we simply speculate and react => Just like chess, let the market make the first move and react accordingly. ----------------------------- 14- Find a mentor => Learn from those who are more experienced than you and surround yourself with talent; By keeping an eye on how veteran traders invest, you’ll begin to understand how they think and make crucial trading decisions. ----------------------------- Again, Happy New Year Everyone! May this Year be the best of all! ~Rich
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by TheSignalyst
40
Give me a bear and I'll make bear BBQ....Heya my dear thriving community of hustlers and busters, traders and shillers, movers and shakers hope you are having a tremendous freaki'n day! So here are several important things to keep in mind when digesting the recent price action: 1. Price action takes a precedent over any shape or pattern formation 2. So far it looks like 9.5 k to 10K levels have formed as a massively liquid bull controlled zones and new wicks to the downside that got bought up actually prove this theory. 3. There is no immediate danger to resolve this price action to the downside as long as fib 236 level at 9550 holds. 4. Resolution to the downside becomes very likely if we see a sudden change in buyer sentiment and market entry of a new player with large liquidity pool looking to buy lows. And Guess what? -We have this kind of player entering the market on Monday. 5. The sell the news factor for Bakkt has already been priced in, so I personally do not expect for market to pump on Monday. If anything, I think we will get shorted to the kingdom come before we see BTC to pump again. 6. I think that the Bakkt's entry will be followed by events similar to CME's entry to the market. 7. Tether and IFINEX corporation is still under inditement, so it is not very likely for them to print more Tether to inject additional liquidity to the market, this implies that bullish resolution of the consolidation is unlikely. 8. BTC liquidity is becoming shallower and shallower ever since some major exchanges started dropping US customers. This again hinds on the bearish resolve of the formation. From the technical standpoint: 1. money flow on 4 hours is going red, which implies a certain sell pressure. 2. Most of the high and low timeframe Volume oscillators are turning below ZERO, which also means that sell pressure is back and we also might see a change in buyer sentiment. This means that liquidity on 9.5-10K levels will steadily turn shallow. 3. 2-hour stochs have turned down, 12 hour RSI has entered bearish controlled zone, the case is the same with daily stocks and RSI. 4. We started to form a down trending price channel marked with green dotted lines. 5. An immediate pick me up price level is consolidated at 382 fib level at 9.8 K. If it breaks ... 6. Bearish resolution of the whole structure is 70% likely is we fully open and close 4-hour dildo at fib 236 level roughly at 9.5K level. 7. If by any chance we manage to cross above 10.55K level at Fib 786, open and close 4-hour dildo above that level then I will expect at first a trappy trap price action and if the level holds - immediate continuation and resolve to the upside. Conclusion, - Next move most likely (70%) is to the downside - If 9.5k breaks, then we will continue with the downward price movement. - Next lower and higher targets are underlined in the chart as blue, red, green and grey support and resistance lines. - These lines are also showing price movement channels. If one channel gets broken, then the second channels assume the priority. If you like my crazy rambling and in-depth updates of the market, please subscribe to my profile and like the post. Have a great trading day and stay safe! Cheers Archie
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by akublashvili
No more Mr Nice! - Important levels to watch and continuation Heya my dear thriving community of hustlers and busters, traders and shillers, movers and shakers hope you are having a tremendous freaki'n day and did not get caught up in that nasty nasty price movement. Before I proceed with all that lovely and well-timed mental masturbation, I have to say that I believe we are going to get bought up soon and we will be trading in 10050-10200 zone in no time, yet if this form will not have immediate continuation in the next 4 hours I'll watch the trendlines and price movement channels. Several things to look for: - As you can see the price has a respected median red line quite nicely and you can also see from lover timeframe charts that there was a persistent rejection on the line taking place, however, it did not hold and now we should expect it to act as flipped resistance. - The price most likely will consolidate on 382 fib line, which is also a major level of resistance. You can see that this line has held up nicely so far however if it brakes - we will move to downward sloping price channel, from which we have broken out from a week ago ( see blue totted price channel). Hate to be a bear in this kind of situations, but right now we are much closer to 9400 than 11000, which could imply a bearish resolution sentiment for a somewhat bearish and somewhat mish-mashed price action. Stay safe my people and let's make MONEEEY! aaand, if you like my analysis of this market, please subscribe and show me your love by hitting LIKE. Cheers Archie
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by akublashvili
Detailed BTC Analysis. The day of resolution is near!!! What is up my people? Have not published a trade idea for a while because the market has been mostly moving sideways since my last post and my last trade idea about a possible resolution to the downside still holds as much water as it did a week ago. However, recent developments give me a hint that we might have an explosive resolution of this insufferable macro triangle/ pendant formation. Additionally, I want to bring you a bit more meat on the bone compared to other trade ideas that I have seen recently. You are in for a treat, If you like a deep dive into a price action & technical analysis. Caveat: The sentiment is long but, this does not mean that we will not see some blood in the streets prior to the decisive move to the upside. Contents: - Moving Averages - Price action - Price channels and possible continuation - MACD Cross on weekly Here we go: On 4 Hours we are under all major moving averages including And price action to the upside is governed by 21 EMA and 50 EMA which will most likely serve as resistance. We are still under the death cross on 4H, which means that this territory comes with great buying opportunities for long term investors and with possible unpredictable moves in all directions for traders and scalpers. Keep your shorts tight and don’t buy into this BS DCA nonsense unless you are a swing trader or a long term investor. I also would like to note that the distance between blue 50 and green 200 SMA has been increasing, there is 50 and 377 SMA bearish cross fast approaching and all of the major (21+) moving averages are sloping downwards which means that there is still some more nastiness in store for us. However! The direction of the price movement is not as unpredictable as it looks, and here is why: - We are approaching the end of the price movement channel that has been governing the price action since August 4 and you can identify this channel with green dotted borders and red pointers. - Given that we do not break out from the triangle formation we would need to find a pivot to a new price action channel start of which is marked with a green pointer. - Red circles mark the areas of confluence and they have a gravitational effect on the price action however the price usually chooses to take the path of the least resistance. Least resistance = Channel governed with STRONG support and resistance borders. - Possible support and resistance channels are charted, bolder lines indicate major S&R and lighter indicate neutral S&R. - Unlikely, but still possible - we might pivot immediately to a new price channel marked with bold red dotted border and orange cross arrows. On daily we have purple 100 and brown 377 EMAs fresh bullish cross, which resulted in explosive 500$ move to the upside, however this cross is not that significant from purely TA perspective, yet it could serve as an indication that bulls want to take control of the price action. Sadly, on 4 Hour we have the same SMAs trying to cross bearish which could result in the price action that can push us over the edge. On daily the price action is supported by 100 EMA sitting at 9800, which means that as long as we don’t open or close a daily dildo under this level, the most probable breakout from the current formation will be resolved to the upside, on the contrary, opening and closing daily price action under 100 EMA will result in early resolution of the formation to the downside and will have a waterfall effect to 9.4K, 9.1K, 8.8K and 8.5K levels. In order to get this situation (macro consolidation) resolved to the upside, bulls need to reclaim 50 EMA (@10450 $) on daily and open and close the price action above it. Which in my opinion will create a massively bullish sentiment. Oh one more thing: MACD on weekly just has crossed bearish. This indicator has not been great or massively helpful on high timeframes, however, in the previous situations the resolution of the MACD cross has been following: - In bearish markets, like January 2018 it has signalled possible capitulation as was followed by 50% selloff - In bullish trending markets, it usually signalled that the resolution of ongoing consolidation was near. This is usually followed by 5-15% drop from the current price action and a price level achieved as a result is this drop will be a new low that we will not revisit anytime soon. Hope this is helpful to you are enjoying this detailed analysis provided by me and if you wish to have more of it, please subscribe and give an idea a like so I will now that you fancy when I deep dive into this market. Cheers Archie
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by akublashvili
4