Retail
Walmart’s (WMT) Earnings Could Signal Economic TrendsAt first glance, Walmart's earnings might not seem critical, but they provide key insights into consumer behavior and could serve as an indicator for future retail sales. If Walmart reports disappointing earnings, it could signal broader economic concerns. As one of the largest retailers in the U.S., a decline in Walmart's customer base may indicate that consumers are tightening their belts, which is never a good sign for the economy.
This is why we're closely monitoring Walmart. Sometimes, stocks can act as a barometer for the market. While we’re hopeful for a strong earnings report, we're also anticipating a potential price dip into the $43 to $36 range. Whether this occurs immediately or in the coming weeks is uncertain, but we believe it’s a likely scenario. If Walmart’s price drops into this range, it could present a compelling buying opportunity. The golden pocket Fibonacci retracement aligns with this area, and there’s also a significant, yet untagged, liquidation level at $40 that we're keeping an eye on.
We’ll be closely watching Walmart’s earnings and price movements. If we see a negative earnings report and a subsequent drop in price, we’ll provide updates and discuss potential strategies. 🤝
Target (TGT): Ready to Break Out of Its DowntrendWith Target, we have another major player in the US retail market, and we prefer its price structure over Walmart's. After completing Wave (3), Target experienced a significant sell-off, forming Wave (4). Currently, it appears that an inverse head and shoulders pattern is developing, which could signal a bullish reversal. The neckline looks particularly strong, and I will have a bullish outlook once this neckline is reclaimed.
There is a breakout gap following the completion of Wave (4), which might be revisited. However, for a well-formed head and shoulders pattern, we should see some momentum soon to create two shoulders at the same level. As long as the Wave (4) level at the Point of Control (POC) holds, we expect more upside, either after a slight dip into the breakout gap or immediately following the earnings report next week.
Starbucks: Brewing Long-Term Success Amid Short-Term ChallengesTrading at 23.4% below our estimate of its fair value
Earnings are forecast to grow 9.78% per year
Earnings have grown 10.8% per year over the past 5 years
Pays a reliable dividend of 3.04%
Starbucks Corporation's recent earnings report might have raised some concerns, but there are several reasons to remain optimistic about SBUX stock.
Despite a challenging quarter, Starbucks is strategically investing in digital innovation and expanding its global footprint, positioning itself for long-term gains.
The company's focus on sustainability and enhancing customer experience highlights its commitment to quality. Moreover, Starbucks' diverse product offerings and loyalty programs provide a solid foundation for future growth.
With strategic cost-cutting measures and a strong financial position, Starbucks is poised to rebound and deliver value to its investors.
UPS looking DOWNSNice head and Shoulders on the United Parcel Service
#UPS and FEDEX are the new dow transport indicator.
An underlying determinant of how the consumer is faring
Since the US is a consumer economy and Online shopping is the majority of retail
if we see new highs on the Indicies, and the home delivery carriers continue to deteriorate
it would give your non confirmation Top
Similar to Dow theory of new High's in the Industrials , but the transports lagging and indeed falling.
Mr Price priming for MAJOR upside in 2025Potential Inv H and S has been forming since September 2021.
Mr Price, has tested its lows at R125.00 multiple times, and the price continues to rocket up.
It now needs to form one more shoulder, higher low and cross above.
And we could see Mr Price at R305.37 by 2025.
NATURE of the analysis: High Probability
Price>20
Price>200
Target R305.37
Possible entries to a Liverpool LongThis seems like a great buying point, looking at all the technicals, it would be hard for price to keep pushing down. However, the moving averages do tend to work as resistance and support, so it could be possible for price to drop there. However, It's unlikely price will continue to move down by much. And if so, price is likely to keep on rising. As this company has proven to be a go-to store for Mexicans looking for presents during the holidays, special events, sports gear and many others. Despite big competitors, this brand has lasted the test of time.
$WMT 10D, $56 incoming, Tower Top BreakdownTower Top Breakdown in the works. Seems like whatever or whenever it happens, it will be close to next Friday. Remain Bearish unless new highs are established. Seemingly easy Trade here. MACD in same positioning as well as RSI. Seems like WMT doesn't get much volume in general. Not necessarily a bad thing. Options could pay well here.
Apes Watch a Slow Motion Train Crash for Years to ComeI already am eating from the trash can all the time.
The name of this trash can is ideology.
The material force of ideology makes me not see what I am effectively eating.
This one is not going to be good for your mental health.
AMC just purchased a Gold Mining Company? truth really is stranger than fiction
It's official, I'm up +50% on my #Zalando position... $ZAL $ZLNDEuropean retail is bouncing back with vigor...
Trading at 80.8% below our estimate of its fair value
Earnings are forecast to grow 28.45% per year
Earnings grew by 394% over the past year
My target is still around $30 30 euros...
However, after this 50% rise, I'm afraid the squeeze will run out of steam and shorts will take over again...
Wouldn't it be a shame?Wouldn't it be a shame if the retail investors got quite a large correction to end the month negative after hitting record highs?
I've been hearing again "this time's different"
"What should I buy to get rich?"
"What projects do you think are worth looking into?"
We aren't even at halving yet.
Come back down to reality. Wall Street retail is due for a nice shake out.
Macro Monday 36~U.S. Johnson Redbook Index (U.S Retail Sales)Macro Monday 36
The Redbook Index – U.S Physical Retail Store Sales
(Released Tomorrow Tuesday 4th March 2024)
This Johnson Redbook Index is very useful at providing the most current insights into consumer spending habits in the U.S. It is released every week covering the prior Mon – Sun consumer spend period in physical outlets around the U.S.
The index is compiled by Johnson Redbook Service by surveying a sample of 9000 retailers, and tracks year-over-year changes in sales of stores that have been opened for at least one year.
The Redbook Index historically tracks sales information from physical stores (Brick and Mortar Stores). Their website describes that they monitor "retail sales" and "same-store sales" which typically refers to physical locations, however some stores also now have an additional online presence, thus in recent years efforts have been made to incorporate some of the online sales data into the index, however this is a secondary and marginal.
The Chart
The Redbook Index provides the YoY percentage increase or decrease of USD in retail sales in the United States. It is released every week covering the prior Mon – Sun spend period giving a real time read on current consumer spending
It being a YoY data release means the percentage change in the Redbook Index is typically measured by comparing the current week's retail sales to those of the same week in the previous year. This calculation is expressed as a percentage to show the increase or decrease in sales over that time period.
Example: If retail sales for the current week are $110,000 and sales for the same week last year were $100,000, the percentage change would be * 100, resulting in a 10% increase.
The chart above illustrates the following:
▫️ The average % from 2005 to 2024 is 3.59% (black line in middle). We shall use this as our average midline barometer of retail sales.
▫️ Moderate levels of retail sales appear to fluctuate between +6% and -0.1% (white area in the middle).
▫️ We have an Exuberance Zone (Green) for when retail sales were over extended to the upside and a Recessionary Zone (Red) which was penetrated during the last two recessions.
▫️ You can see that in the mid 2000's we bounced off the Recessionary -0.1% zone three times as the index also made a series of lower highs (see arrow). This could be perceived as waning or struggling retail spending ahead of the crash. At present we have a series of lower highs and we have bounced off the Recessionary Level (-0.1%) once, if we see continued lower highs and more bounces from the red zone, this could be a concerning repeating pattern.
You will be able to press play on my TradingView page at any stage over coming months to see where this index has moved on this chart.
Lets see how this index performs over coming weeks and months.
PUKA
Box Store Giants: Macro Fib SchematicsWalmart, Costco, Target, CVS, Home Depot, and Walgreens are the largest box store giants in the market. Proctor and Gamble along with Nike are in here because they are both also mega corporations and since P&G has so many products in these stores. Nike is also a staple in these stores but Proctor and Gamble especially belongs here.
These Fibonacci Schematics are extremely clean and probably the best looking structure I have ever seen. This is an excellent example of market mechanics working through Fib Schematics.
If we were to talk about what we see here 2/27/24 then we see....
- Walmart at a couple resistances.
- P&G launching off massive Fib Cluster support.
- Costco testing the waters above and getting ready to jump into next levels.
- Home Depot testing its midpoint from its high with a massive front run from the Thick Orange Fib Line after the actual rejection at the high. This means we are set to launch through the high at 420.
- Target barely rejected the high (FRONTRUN) and found reasonable support on the same supports it FRONTRAN. Target is poised to go crazy high.
- Nike looks like it can do anything.
- CVS also looks like it can do anything but looks more bearish tbh.
#WMT has walmart exhausted itself with this rally?Walmart, the retail behemoth, seems to have exhausted itself with the superb run seen in the share price from a low of $149 to $170 since the end of last year. We have a demark 9 exhaustion sell signal followed by bearish divergence (Price higher high not confirmed by lower high in the RSI). In addition we have seem the MACD cross down which could be suggesting weakness in momentum in the days ahead. The last two candles on the chart have engulfed 8 days of action above $169 so the likelihood is that we now retrace to the first big level at roughly $166 which co-incides with the 20dma, 23.6% fib and the uptrend from the December lows. Should this trendline break, further weakness can be expected to the 38.2 and 50% retracement levels of approx. $163 and $160
XRT: Bullish Inverted Head and Shoulders Could Target an 0.886XRT on the hourly has started to form what could be a Bullish head and Shoulders, if it plays out it could result in the XRT making a 0.886 Fibonacci Retrace likely starting before the end of the week. Additionally, the RSI has a Bullish Shark formation which could serve as further confirmation of the low.
Walgreens: Quarterly Bullish Piercing Line at PCZ of Bullish BatThere is a Bullish Piercing Line at the PCZ of a Bullish Bat that is visible on the Quarterly time frame. We also have MACD and RSI Bullish Divergence to go along with it as well as Increasing Volume. This could be the start of something big for the price action and I speculate that shares of Walgreens could rise up to around $58 over the coming months.
Alright... All set for 7.50?Looks like it wants to hit 7.50 where it can meet its first resistance. If it holds 7.50 and break above it, then next target is 12. Huge volume recently and chart looks bullish, oversold, formed a bottom and looks like a U-shaped recovery.