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Sterling unchanged ahead of retail salesThe British pound has been calm for most of the week and has edged lower on Thursday, trading at 1.1936 in the North American session. The UK economic calendar has been brimming all week, and Friday will be busy with retail sales and PMI reports. The markets are expecting retail sales to slow in June - headline retail sales is expected at -5.3% YoY, following the May reading of -4.7%, while the core reading is projected at -6.3% YoY, down from -5.7% in May. With inflation rising to 9.4% YoY in June, up from 9.1%, it's small wonder that weary consumers, pummelled by the cost-of-living crisis, are watching their pennies and cutting back on spending. This could spell trouble for the UK economy as consumer spending is a key driver of growth, and a slowdown in spending could tip the economy into recession. If the retail sales report is worse than forecast, I would expect to see the pound respond with losses. The markets are also expecting a de-acceleration from UK PMIs for June. Manufacturing PMI is expected to slow to 52.0, down from 52.8, while Services PMI is forecast to drop to 53.0, down from 54.3. Although the estimates point to continuing expansion, with readings above 50.0, a slowdown in manufacturing or services could make investors nervous and weigh on the British pound. The BoE has been criticized for its slow and tepid response to surging inflation, with critics pointing to the BoE's cautious rate hiking of only 0.25% at the last four meetings, which has brought the cash rate to a rather low 1.25%. The central bank has projected that inflation will climb to 11% before peaking, which means that consumers can expect the cost-of-living crisis to get even worse before things improve. Governor Bailey has hinted that a 0.50% hike is on the table at the August meeting, and such a move would help restore the Bank's credibility, which has been damaged in its bruising, and so far unsuccessful battle with inflation. GBP/USD faces resistance at 1.2018 and 1.2167  There is support at 1.1889 and 1.1740
by OANDA
Australian dollar rises, RBA minutes nextThe Australian dollar has started the trading week with strong gains, extending the upswing from Friday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6835, up 0.62% on the day. Market risk sentiment has strengthened, courtesy of better-than-expected data out of the US on Friday. Headline retail sales and core retail sales both posted a gain of 1.0% MoM in June, above the forecast and an improvement from the May numbers. As well, UoM Consumer Sentiment improved slightly to 51.0, above the consensus for a contraction at 49.0. This has boosted the Australian dollar, a bellwether of risk appetite. The financial markets were pleased with US retail sales, which points to consumers' willing to spend despite the bite that higher inflation is taking out of disposable incomes. At the same time, strong consumer spending paves the way for a massive 100bp hike from the Federal Reserve next week, as strong US data indicates that the economy is strong enough to withstand higher rates. There is a pre-meeting blackout of the FOMC ahead of next Thursday's meeting, but we can still expect plenty of discussion about whether the Fed will deliver a 75 bp or 100 bp increase. The more likely scenario is a 75bp move, but the Fed has surprised before, and a 100bp move is certainly on the table. The RBA is also in the midst of a rate-tightening cycle, but the cash rate is only at 1.35%, which won't make a significant dent on surging inflation. The central bank is likely to continue tightening throughout the remainder of 2022. The minutes from the July meeting will be released on Tuesday, and investors will be looking for clues as to how aggressive the RBA plans to be as it tries to balance hiking rates without choking economic activity and causing a recession. There is resistance at 0.6871 and 0.6949 0.6776 is providing support, followed by 0.6698
by OANDA
Aussie edges up after strong US retail salesThe week wrapped up on a high note, as June US retail sales beat expectations. The headline and core readings both accelerated in June, with solid gains of 1.0%. This indicates that US consumers are still spending despite the toll that higher inflation and higher rates are taking on disposable income. The strong retail sales report will raise expectations that the Fed will be content to raise rates "only" by 0.75%, rather than a full 1.00% at the next meeting. When the markets have a chance to digest the numbers on Monday, risk appetite will likely rise, which could push the US dollar lower. China's economy slowed down in the second quarter, which is no real surprise given the Covid-zero policy which resulted in mass lockdowns. The economy posted a small gain of 0.4% YoY, missing the estimate of 1.0% (4.8% prior). On an annualized basis, GDP contracted by 2.6%, worse than the forecast of -1.5% (+1.4% prior). These weak numbers were offset by a strong bounce in retail sales, which jumped 3.10% in June, crushing the estimate of -0.3% (-6.7% prior). If China can avoid further lockdowns in key cities such as Shanghai, we can expect GDP to rebound in Q3. The health of China's economy is critical for Australia, as China is its biggest trading partner. An excellent employment report earlier this week on Thursday has raised concerns that the RBA may need to accelerate its rate-tightening cycle and consider larger rate increases. The economy gained 88.8 thousand new jobs, blowing the estimate of 30.0 thousand out of the water. As well, the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, down from 3.9% and below the 3.8% estimate. The RBA has been raising rates aggressively, but even so, the cash rate is still at a low 1.35%, and clearly the RBA will have to hike sharply to make a dent in inflation, which is running at 5.1%. We'll get a look at CPI for the second quarter at the end of July. AUD/USD is putting pressure on resistance at 0.6782. Next, there is resistance at 0.6839 There is support at 0.6706 and 0.6649
by OANDA
Like a bouncing ball on a downhill!Like a bouncing ball on a downhill, equities have bounced hard after repeated selloffs but the general momentum remains downward. With Consumer Price Index (CPI), Retail Sales, Initial Jobless Claims & Consumer Sentiments numbers coming out this week, markets are likely to be jittery. Any downside surprises could spur a sharp reaction downwards. The S&P 500 E-mini Futures have been trading in a descending channel since March with current prices trading near the channel resistance. Additionally, prices have been rejected off the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level twice. The strong technical resistance levels as well as potential negative economic data surprises in the coming week warrant a short position over the short term. Entry at 3842, stops at 4025. Target at 3645 & 3500. Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by inspirante
Euro slide continuesThe month of July has been an unmitigated disaster for the euro - with only three trading sessions in the books, EUR/USD has declined a staggering 2.73%. Earlier in the day, the euro dropped to 1.0186, its lowest level since December 2002. The euro appears headed for parity with the US dollar, a psychologically significant level. The economic outlook in the eurozone is not an encouraging one. Inflation surged to 8.1% in May, surpassing the April record of 7.4%. A peak in inflation remains elusive, and the ECB is way behind the inflation curve - the central bank hasn't raised interest rates yet, which are in negative territory. Even so, a lukewarm eurozone economy means that raising rates poses the risk of a recession. The energy situation has been deteriorating, as sanctions against Russia have led to counter moves in which Moscow has reduced its gas exports to Europe, which could result in an energy shortage this winter. If Russia reduces oil or gas exports to Europe, prices will soar and this could cause a severe economic downturn. A strike by Norwegian oil and gas workers on Tuesday threatened to exacerbate the situation. The Norwegian government has stepped in and ended the strike, but investors remain nervous as the eurozone's energy situation could become precarious. Today's data out of the eurozone showed some improvement but did little to raise risk sentiment. Germany's Factory Orders rose 0.1% in May, up from -1.6% in April but still a negligible gain. It was a similar story for eurozone retail sales, which came in at 0.2% in May after a -1.4% read in April. On Thursday, Germany releases Industrial Production for May, which is expected to slow to 0.7%, down from 0.4%. EUR/USD faces resistance at 1.0124. Below, there is support at 1.0075 There is resistance at 1.0221 and 1.0324
by OANDA
Euro stems slide but still below 1.05The euro has edged higher on Thursday, after posting losses in two consecutive sessions. The markets were treated to a data dump out of the eurozone, with some mixed numbers. On the employment front, the eurozone unemployment rate fell to 6.6%, down from 6.8% (6.7% exp.). Germany reported 133 thousand newly unemployed, a huge increase, but this reading was an anomaly due to the influx of Ukrainian refugees into the labour market. German retail sales for May bounced back with a modest gain of 0.6%, after a dismal -5.4% slide in April. Investors are keenly awaiting Eurozone CPI for June, which is expected to hit 8.4%, up from 8.1% in May. With no inflation peak in sight and the ECB revising downwards its growth forecast, the spectre of stagflation in the bloc remains very real. At the ECB forum this week, Lagarde sounded hawkish and downplayed concerns about a recession, although there is good reason to be sceptical about her optimism. Inflation continues to hammer away at consumers and businesses. The energy situation with Russia continues to deteriorate and the standoff between Russia and the West is only getting worse, with Finland and Sweden applying to join NATO and the Ukraine war grinding on. In the US, there was some good news for a change on the inflation front. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the Core PCE Price index, was unchanged at 0.3% MoM in May, a notch below the estimate of 0.4%. However, earnings dropped sharply to 0.2% in May, compared to 0.9% in April. This could be a sign of the toll the cost of living crisis is taking on US consumers. Federal Reserve Chair Powell has downplayed the likelihood of a recession in the US, but as is the case with ECB President Lagarde, many market participants are less optimistic. EUR/USD is testing resistance at 1.0482. Above, there is resistance at 1.0544 There is support at 1.0408 and 1.0346
by OANDA
Aussie rises ahead of retail salesThe Australian dollar is in positive territory on Tuesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6944 in European trade, up 0.28% on the day. Australia releases retail sales for May on Wednesday. Retail sales is the primary gauge of consumer spending, and the markets are braced for a weak reading of 0.3%, following a 0.9% gain in April. Consumers are holding tightly onto their purse strings, as interest rates are on the rise and the cost-of-living crisis is intensifying. A deceleration in retail sales could cause slowdown fears and push the Australian dollar lower. The markets are already nervous about an economic slowdown, with the RBA in the midst of its rate-tightening cycle. The central bank surprised the markets with a super-size 0.50% hike earlier in June, and the RBA could deliver another 0.50% increase at next week's meeting, or stick with a modest 0.25% rise. The cash rate is still relatively low at 0.85%, and the Bank will have to raise rates aggressively in order to curb soaring inflation. On Friday, Governor Lowe stated that there were no plans to raise rates by a massive 0.75% hike at the upcoming meeting. This of course does not rule out the possibility of such a move at later meetings. Lowe suggested last week that wage growth should be about 3.5%, half of the 7% inflation rate that the RBA is projecting by year's end. This would essentially mean a pay cut for workers and could be the recipe for labour unrest if workers demand higher wages to compensate for soaring inflation. Wage growth has been very modest and is not a cause of the jump in inflation; rather, the war in Ukraine and supply chain disruptions, notably in China, have been the primary drivers of inflation. AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6936, followed by resistance at 0.7004 There is support at 0.6877 and 0.6809
by OANDA
Gap:Bargain buy despite gapping down!Gap Short Term - We look to Buy at 8.08 (stop at 5.20) This stock has recently been in the news headlines. They reported an earnings surprise miss. We are trading at oversold extremes. A move lower faces tough support and we remain cautious on downside potential. Dip buying offers good risk/reward. Our profit targets will be 15.00 and 17.50 Resistance: 15.00 / 17.50 / 25.00 Support: 7.50 / 5.26 / 2.50 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’) . Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
GLong
by VantageMarkets
Canadian dollar higher on retail salesThe Canadian dollar hasn't made any spectacular daily gains since May 13th, when it shot up 1.1%. The currency has, however, made slow but steady progress against its US cousin. Earlier today, USD/CAD touched a low of 1.2731, its lowest level in three weeks. Canada's retail sales for March helped the Canadian dollar rally on Thursday. The headline figure was virtually unchanged, but core retail sales rose 1.5%. According to StatsCan, retail sales jumped 3.0% in Q1, its highest level since Q3 2020. Consumers continue to spend despite red-hot inflation, but if consumers decide to tighten the purse strings, the economy would likely take a hit and drag the Canadian dollar lower. The US dollar finds itself under pressure as risk appetite has rebounded. Investors were pleased with the FOMC minutes, as the Fed signalled that it planned to press ahead with 50-bps rate increases in June and July, which soothed concerns about a possible massive 75-bps hike. This gave the equity markets a boost and sent the greenback lower. The US economy may not be in a recession, but negative growth in the first quarter is certainly a concern. Second-estimate GDP came in at -1.5% QoQ, shy of the estimate of -1.3% and revised downwards from the initial estimate of -1.4%. Growth in Q1 was hampered by a surge in Omicron as well as the Ukraine war. One bright spot was solid consumer spending, which remains strong in the face of spiralling inflation. Consumer spending, as gauged by PCE expenditures, rose 3.1% in Q1, up from 2.7% prior. The markets are keeping a close eye on Personal Spending and Personal Income, which will be released later today. The economy is expected to rebound in Q2, but could be much lower than the rosy GDP numbers we saw after the US economy reopened. There is resistance at 1.2866 and 1.2955 USD/CAD is testing support at 1.2750. Below, there is support at 1.2661
by OANDA
1
AUD drifting ahead of retail salesThe Australian dollar started the week with gains of close to one percent but has been mostly drifting since then. AUD/USD is trading quietly, just below the 0.71 line. It hasn't been a very good week on the Australian release front, raising concerns that the economy may be slowing down. Manufacturing and Services PMIs both slowed in May, while Construction Work Done and Private New Capital Expenditure both recorded declines in the first quarter. The week winds up with April Retail Sales on Friday, which is projected to slow to 0.9%, after a 1.6% in March. Australia releases GDP next week, and an underperforming release would likely dampen sentiment towards the Australian dollar. The new Labour government is rolling up its sleeves after its election victory and getting to work. Both Labour and the defeated Liberal party made campaign promises to review RBA operations, including how it targets inflation. The new Treasurer, Jim Chalmers, says he will announce his findings shortly. Chalmers said on Wednesday that he had inherited "very tricky" economic conditions, including rising inflation and interest rates, and a massive trillion-dollar debt. The FOMC minutes didn't contain any surprises, which actually soothed nervous markets. Investors have become increasingly concerned that the US economy might tip into recession. Recent data, such as housing, has been weak, while at the same time that the Federal Reserve has embarked on an aggressive rate-hike cycle aimed at slowing the economy and containing inflation. With inflation still not showing signs of peaking, there have been calls from some Fed officials to deliver a super-super-size 75 bps hike. To the relief of the markets, the minutes appeared to put to rest such a drastic move, as the Fed signalled that it will hike by 50 bps in June and July, followed by a pause in September. This would allow the Fed to monitor the effects of the June and July hikes on the economy and on inflation levels. 0.7118 is a weak resistance line. Above, there is resistance at 0.7196 There is support at 0.6996 and 0.6918
by OANDA
Carrefour (CA.pa) bearish scenario:The technical figure Rising Wedge can be found in the French company Carrefour (CA.pa) at daily chart. Carrefour is a French multinational retail corporation headquartered in Massy, France. The eighth-largest retailer in the world by revenue, it operates a chain of hypermarkets, groceries stores, and convenience stores, which as of January 2021, comprises its 12,225 stores in over 30 countries. The Rising Wedge has broken through the support line on 21/05/2022, if the price holds below this level you can have a possible bearish price movement with a forecast for the next 17 days towards 17.880 EUR. Your stop loss order according to experts should be placed at 21.370 EUR if you decide to enter this position. Europe's largest food retailer reported first-quarter sales that showed a lacklustre performance in its core French market, overshadowing more robust growth in Brazil. The French retailer said it was confident about its 2022 outlook, confirming a key cash flow target for the year, but this was not enough to support the shares following a 26% rise so far this year. Cash is key to Carrefour's plans to step up digital commerce expansion without the extra financial resources that would have been on hand if two planned tie-ups last year had not failed - one with Canada's Couche-Tard and the other with France's Auchan. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
EURONEXT:CAShort
by legacyFXofficial
Upcoming $VSBGF Earnings - Price TargetNew company with a very bright future. VSBLTY Groupe Technologies Corp $VSBGF earnings report is expected on May 4th. The company has just begun to turn profits, signed numerous big name agreements with global companies, and continues to present a very bright future. Sensors & displays in retail sales environments, artificial intelligence, security... this is a sleeping giant. November 21 earnings resulted in >30% spike in the face of broader market downturn and macroeconomic headwinds pulling the company down. The more broad negative market sentiment presents a rare opportunity to continue to load up on shares prior to the next earnings report on 4 May. The stock is significantly undervalued with revenue projected to increase >45% this year PE of -6.7x, market PE is 44.5x & the broader market is 12.6x As a nascent company with a strong pipeline and implementations on track, the PB rating of 17.8x is just scratching the surface as it has just a 16% debt to equity ratio.
OTC:VSBGFLong
by UnknownUnicorn20630062
NZDUSD - CURRENT SITUATION AND TECHNICAL BIAS- There are several special indicators that affect NZDUSD today. Among them, US RETAIL SALES, CORE RETAIL SALES, UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS, PRELIM UOM CONSUMER SENTIMENT, DATA are very special today. NZDUSD VOLATILE Beware of other INDICATORS. - NZD FEATURE is currently down a bit. The main reason for this is that COMMODITIES are DOWN and EQUITIES are DOWN. The NZD FEATURE stands at 0.6815 LEVEL. DXY is currently UP. According to the MARKET SENTIMENT and USD is slightly STRONG. Prices are below NZDUSD DYNAMIC LEVELS. - Currently the SENTIMENT of the OVERALL MARKET is being POSITIVE. Until yesterday the MARKET RISK was OFF. STOCKS DOWN DOWN until yesterday. Also, the EQUITIES are turning somewhat GREEN but the VOLATILITY is going down. Also COMMODITIES still shows a DOWN SIDE BIAS. Currently there is only one OVERALL UP SIDE BIAS in the market. We can not say for sure whether the MARKET SENTIMENT is UP or DOWN. But according to the data we have received so far we can say that MARKETS RISK is turning ON. - NZDUSD PRICE can return to 0.6730 LEVEL and then REJECT from that LEVEL. NZDUSD SHORT TERM may be further BUY if COMMODITIES PRICES UP UP, VOLATILITY DOWN. - NZDUSD PRICE can go to 0.6730 LEVEL before UP. Then you can UP to LEVEL 0.6926. Buying NZDUSD is a bit risky if VIX is UP.
by benny_marshall
Aussie dips ahead of retail sales After a strong week, the Australian dollar has reversed directions and dropped below the 0.75 line on Monday. Investors will be keeping an eye on Australian retail sales, which will be released on Tuesday. The markets are expecting a gain of 1.0%, down from 1.8% in January. The month of March has been kind to the Australian dollar, with sharp gains of 3.47%. The risk currency has not been affected by the tumultuous reaction in the markets to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, although risk apprehension is certainly higher since the war began. Investors are also uneasy over the situation in China, which continues to battle an upsurge in Covid cases. The government has imposed rolling lockdowns on Shanghai, which has a population of some 25 million. The property crisis has been overshadowed by the Ukraine crisis, but it hasn't gone away. Since Evergrande's default last year, Chinese property developers are finding themselves locked out of the global debt market, and the country's third-largest developer missed two bond payments on Friday. There is plenty of risk apprehension to go around, but the Aussie's savior has been the resource-based economy of the Lucky Country, as the range of commodities that Australia exports have been in huge demand as prices continue to head higher. Australia releases its annual budget on Tuesday, and the surge in commodities will allow the Morrison government to narrow its budget deficit and also give out some goodies, as it eyes a federal election later this year. The budget is expected to include help for homeowners and a temporary reduction in the tax on petrol. 0.7414 is the first line of support. Below, there is support at 0.7313 There is resistance at 0.7577 and 0.7639
by OANDA
Yen posts gains despite weak dataJapan's factory output declined for a second consecutive month as supply disruptions continue to take a toll on manufacturing. Industrial production for January fell 1.3% m/m, worse than the consensus of -0.7%. There was no relief from retail sales for January, which dropped 1.9% m/m, compared to the forecast of -1.2%. Covid health restrictions contributed to the drop in consumer spending. The weak data will weigh on GDP for the first quarter, which is still expected to show a small gain. Inflation has risen but still remains below the BoJ's target of 2%, which means that the central bank can be expected to continue its loose monetary stance, at a time when most major central banks are tightening policy. The crisis in Ukraine could further muddy the outlook for the county's fragile economy. Oil has pushed above the 100-dollar level and a disruption in Russian oil deliveries to world markets will send oil prices even higher, which will raise prices and dampen consumer spending. The war in Ukraine continues, although there was a small ray of hope as Russian and Ukrainian officials met today for face-to-face talks for the first time since the Russian invasion. The crisis has shaken the financial markets and the Russian ruble plunged over the weekend in response to tough sanctions from Western countries. Along with the US dollar, the yen has been an attractive safe-haven asset for panicky investors who have been dumping riskier holdings. USD/JPY has held steady since the crisis began, unlike the other majors which have buckled under the weight of the US dollar as risk appetite has dampened. USD/JPY has support at 114.71. Next, the 100-DMA at 114.37 is providing support There is resistance at 116.06 and 116.59
by OANDA
Pound steady as retail sales reboundUK retail sales rebounded in January, with a gain of 1.9% m/m, its highest monthly gain since April 2021. The increase followed a decline of 4.0% in December and beat the consensus of 1.0%. The Omicron variant of corona continues to have a significant impact on consumer spending. The December drop was a result of consumers doing their Christmas shopping in October and November, while the January rise reflected the easing of health restrictions. With Covid regulations set to expire due to falling infection rates, we should see consumer spending continue to accelerate. The Bank of England remains under strong pressure to raise rates at its meeting in March. The markets have priced in a quarter-point hike in March at 100%, and the BoE will likely follow up with more hikes until inflation, which is at a 30-year high, is brought down. We can expect the BoE to deliver a more gradual pace of rate hikes than what has been priced by the markets. The Russia/Ukraine border remains extremely tense, although a feared invasion on Wednesday did not materialize. Tensions heightened on Thursday after a skirmish in a border region which the West feared was a pretext for a full-scale invasion. This sent the financial markets tumbling as risk sentiment dissipated. The US has disputed Russia's claim that it has reduced its forces on the border and says an invasion could occur at any time. Still, there is a ray of light for a diplomatic solution, as the US and Russian foreign ministers will meet next week, so an invasion appears to be on ice, at least for now. It's a safe bet that market direction next week will be largely set by developments in the Ukraine crisis and market participants should be prepared for volatility. There is resistance at 1.3640. and 1.3719 GBP/USD has support at 1.3487 and 1.3413 .
by OANDA
Japanese yen drifting, Fed minutes nextThe Japanese yen continues to have a quiet week and is trading at 115.46 in the North American session, down 0.12% on the day. The US dollar enjoyed a boost earlier in the week as tensions between Russia and the West reached a fever pitch. Now that the situation has stabilized somewhat, investors are breathing easier and the dollar has lost ground. Still, there is apprehension in the air and a lack of clarity as to what happens next. Russia says that it has moved some troops away from attack positions, but the US says there is no proof of this. President Biden took to the airwaves on Tuesday and warned the Russians of severe consequences if it attacked Ukraine while saying it was not too late to reach a diplomatic solution. In the US, a strong retail sales report for January provided something for investors to digest other than news from Ukraine. Retail Sales jumped 3.8% m/m, crushing the estimate of 2.0% and rebounding from the 2.5% decline in December. High inflation helped boost the retail sales numbers, but consumers are buying more goods and services as well. Investors will now shift their attention to the Fed minutes, which will be released later today. We've been hearing a hawkish message from some FOMC members of late, and the minutes could well reflect the hawkish pivot that the Fed has reluctantly embraced due to red-hot inflation. Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently abandoned his stance that inflation was transitory and a March liftoff for hikes is essentially a done deal. The markets have priced in six hikes, although some FOMC members have suggested that three or four hikes will suffice to rein in inflation close to the Fed's target of 2 per cent. There is weak resistance at 115.56. Above, there is resistance at 114.52 There is support at 112.87 and 112.26
by OANDA
GBPJPY Technical Analysis as we approach London Session 1/21/22My Bias is Bearish for this Upcoming London Session 1/21/22. I believe we have strong bear momentum and can continue bearish to 154.150. I have drawn the Levels we should pay attention to carefully. I'm looking for sells around 155.200, where there is a 1hr zone. This is a good pullback spot to go short, worth the Risk:Reward, trading with momentum. Additionally, Negative retail sales for GBP certainly doesn't help a bullish GBP as we approach the end of the week.
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
Retail Sales - Macro Data The Chart does not show Friday's decline. Retail Sales have rolled over. _____________________________________ Market participants to continue to ignore the warning signs. Denial. ______________________________________ Powell warned after his confirmation hearing the Federal Reserve's effort to control Inflation will lead to a "Recession" - believe him. For once in 22 Months the pressures from FOMC Voting Members is beginning to assert far more action(s) from the Raven.
FRED:RETAILSMSA
by HK_L61
2
Home Depot Inc. (HD) bearish scenario:The technical figure Triangle can be found in the US company The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) at daily chart. The Home Depot, Inc., commonly known as Home Depot, is the largest home improvement retailer in the United States, supplying tools, construction products, and services. The Triangle has broken through the support line on 08/01/2022, if the price holds below this level you can have a possible bearish price movement with a forecast for the next 21 days towards 364.00 USD. Your stop loss order according to experts should be placed at 371.24 USD if you decide to enter this position. Wall Street will be looking for positivity from Home Depot as it approaches its next earnings report date. This is expected to be February 22, 2022. In that report, analysts expect Home Depot to post earnings of $3.22 per share. This would mark year-over-year growth of 17.52%. Meanwhile, our latest consensus estimate is calling for revenue of $34.68 billion, up 7.49% from the prior-year quarter. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
NYSE:HDShort
by legacyFXofficial
Aussie steady ahead of retail salesThe Australian dollar is trading quietly at the start of the week. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7172, down 0.14% on the day. December job numbers in the US were mixed. The nonfarm payrolls report was a major disappointment, with a gain of 199 thousand, compared to a forecast of 425 thousand. Despite the soft nonfarm payrolls reports, investors remain hawkish about a Fed rate hike and the major currencies posted gains against the US dollar on Friday. The mixed jobs report is unlikely to change the Fed's lift-off date for a rate hike, which will likely come in mid-2022, although the markets have priced in a March hike at above 70%. On the positive side, the US unemployment rate dropped from 4.2% to 3.9% and wage growth climbed 4.7% y/y, above the estimate of 4.2%. As we saw with the JOLTS Jobs Openings release last week, there are jobs to be had, but the difficulty is finding workers to fill the vacancies. Australia starts the event ball rolling on Tuesday, with the release of Retail Sales for November. The consensus stands at 3.9%, after a gain of 4.9% in October. The circus over star tennis player Novak Djokovic and whether he can remain in Australia for the Australian Open has overshadowed the skyrocketing Covid numbers. Australia is reporting over 1 million infections, as businesses are grappling with staff shortages due to sickness or isolation rules. So far, the government has avoided new lockdowns, but if the infection rates continue to rise, lockdowns could be reimposed which would hamper economic activity. There is resistance at 0.7263 and 0.7343 AUD/USD has support at 0.7116 and 0.7049
by OANDA
2
Euro edges lower as German PMI misses markWelcome to the first trading day of 2022! The euro is slightly lower in the European session, trading around 1.1350. Eurozone Manufacturing PMIs for December pointed to growth across the bloc. France and Italy beat the consensus, while Spain and the all-eurozone PMIs were within expectations. The one disappointment was Germany, which came in at 57.4. This missed the forecast of 57.9 and was down from the November reading of 57.9. Supply constraints have hampered Germany's manufacturing sector and the pace of expansion has slowed significantly since the summer of 2021, when we were seeing readings in the mid-60s. Germany will release Retail Sales on Tuesday. This key gauge of consumer spending has struggled, posting back-to-back declines. Another decline in December would raise a red flag and investors could sour on the euro. Omicron cases continue to skyrocket, and although it is considered milder than other Covid variants, the sheer number of infected people is putting a heavy strain on health care systems worldwide. The US, Greece and other countries have shortened their isolation periods for infected people, and this could help cushion the economic blow from Omicron. We are likely to see a surge in Omicron cases in the coming weeks, but the critical question for the markets is how sick are those people who are infected. Market sentiment has been high despite the soaring numbers, on the assumption that Omicron is not as severe as previous variants and will not cause a severe economic downturn. If we don't see a surge in hospitalisation rates and a return to lockdowns, I would expect risk sentiment to remain elevated. EUR/USD has support at 1.1303. Below, there is support at 1.1232 There is resistance at 1.1456 and 1.1415
by OANDA