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Retailtraders

How do you feel?If you check at least 3/5 on the below we might be in the right place. 1. Depressed 2. Tired 3. Stressed 4. Scared 5. Out of money to buy more I do not know about you but I have been through all of the above over the last 12 months! I made tons of mistakes no doubt about that! BUT i wIll not make the biggest one, panic sell at the bottom or in the first rally! Some things to consider when you try to draw the picture of the next 6-12months 1. Advertising Costs or User Acquisition Costs ⬇ + NPS ⬆ ( What's doing Meow Meow on the roof???) 2. Shipping Costs + Shipping time ⬇ 3. West Disposable Income ⬇ Why is Peter Selling? well, for a buyout to take place at least >50% of shareholders must agree! Now retail holds 39% + the previous 10% of Peter before starting selling makes 49%! you understand how dangerous that was for the Funds that they wanted to take over right? Probably the price is already set! nobody else besides peter is selling here! Now have a look here: Vijay's Contract "Restricted Stock Units. Subject to the approval of the Company’s Board of Directors or its Compensation Committee, you will be granted an award of Restricted Stock Units (“RSUs”) for that number of shares of the Company’s Common Stock equal to $12,000,000 divided by the average closing price of a share of the Company’s Common Stock as reported on Nasdaq during the full calendar month prior to your Start Date, rounded down to the nearest whole share + "Stock Options. Subject to the approval of the Company’s Board of Directors or its Compensation Committee, you will be granted an option to purchase that number of shares of the Company’s Class A Common Stock equal to $16,800,000 divided by the average closing price of a share of the Company’s Common Stock as reported on Nasdaq during the full calendar month prior to your Start Date, rounded down to the nearest whole share (the “Option”)" The average closing price prior to the Start Date meaning Dec 21 was around $3.2 giving to Vijay the option in case he would stay with the company to hold around 9m shares or 1.3%. So Peter's 10% + Vijay 1.3% + Retail 39% or more at the time since many got liquidated gives us >50%, if one of the funds holding 3-4% could be on their side the acquisition would be even harder to take place. Imo this is an ordered acquisition and Retail will pay for it! What a beautiful game! Based on 670m shares float here are the % based on (simplywallst.com data and fintle.io) Holders >1% 1. Vanguard together with its passive funds holds 84,819,961 or 12.65% 2. Blackrock together with its passive funds holds 37,909,425 or 5.65% + iShares (owned by Blackrock) 20,564,283 or 3.069% 3. Formation8 Partners 42,192,476 or 6.29% 4. DST Global 38,301,392 or 5.71% 5. GGV Capital, LLC 25,707,499 or 3,83% 6. General Atlantic Llc 16,888,478 or 2.52% 7. Maple Rock Capital Partners Inc. 13,519,000 or 2.01% +5m call option + potential 0.74% 8. State Street Corp 13,349,046 or 1.99% 9. Geode Capital Management, Llc 8,442,463 or 1.26% 10. Comprehensive Financial Management LLC 8,406,736 or 1.25% 11. Renaissance Technologies Llc 8,264,800 or 1.23% All of the above players hold together 47.45%! Peter already sold 3.63% and probably going for >5%, when we learn who bought in i think the price would not be where it is now! From the 2021 Annual Report "In addition, in July 2017, FTSE Russell and Standard & Poor’s announced that they would cease to allow most newly public companies utilizing dual or multi-class capital structures to be included in their indices. Affected indices include the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500, S&P MidCap 400, and S&P SmallCap 600, which together make up the S&P Composite 1500. Under the announced policies, our multi-class capital structure would make us ineligible for inclusion in any of these indices, and as a result, mutual funds, exchange-traded funds, and other investment vehicles that attempt to passively track these indices will not be investing in our stock." IMO Peter's conversion from B to A opened the door for the acquisition ! Since they will scoop everything from their passive funds! What's the price???? If the deal is done and you are the SMART MONEY wouldn't you like to purchase all the stock available??? I mean look at that depressed 39% that sits there! IMO 2 paths are possible depending on how the markets will do over the next 6-12months 1. If markets do well there will be an explosive rally to $3-5 towards the EoY, I bet most of you will take your money and leave at that point, the volatility (shaking) is going to be insane! RSI constantly overbought on divergence the opposite of what's happening now! 2. If markets do bad then 0.90-0.70 will do. I think a big % of retail will give up on new lows or on the first 100-300% rally. Now IF and i say IF there is a buyout what would be the price? I would like to think of a price higher than the institution's average. Wish right now has no major shareholder (Peter is gone) I think VC's will likely dictate the price. My guess would be something around 4-6x FY23 sales if markets go well! That should be in the range of 4-6b maybe a little higher depending on how sales would look in 23. That translates to a price of more or less $7-9 or Inside the GAP!!! *Peter's Thiel Fund sold all of it's shares on the WSB frenzy for an average of $12 i think in the best best best case scenario that's the ceiling! Do your own research and do not listen and trust nobody! In the end, we are all alone in this game! Keep calm WGMI!
WLong
by Philoslother
10
Institutional Traders Turned BearishCoinbase premium has significantly dropped to the negative territory. With more institutional traders on Coinbase and more retail traders on Binance, the Coinbase premium over Binance’s BTC price has been a good gage of the institutional trader sentiments. Institutional traders have been willingly paying premiums throughout the past 2 years of crypto market boom and have just recently started trading at discounts. This is a sign that institutional traders are more bearish than retail traders in the current market. While we could have relief rallies in the meantime, the return of institutional faith in the market is needed for any significant uptrend. In both the 2019 and Covid bottoms, the Coinbase premium turned significantly positive, which we have a long way from in the current market.
Short
by Phi-Deltalytics
5
2000 vs 2022Some similarities between 2000 vs 2022 1. Before reaching ATH the index did a very sharp decline of 33% 2. It took the index 17 bars to reach an ATH vs 20 now 3. Found support on 40SMA after 9 months from ATH vs 7 now 4. Mass retail participation 5. .com mania vs crypto mania? (did luna just popped the bubble?) 6. Interest rates were falling back in 2000 vs rising now (tradingeconomics.com) 7. Inflation was not even close back then to what is is now (tradingeconomics.com) What to wait for 1. Holding or not 40SMA!!! 2. Where RSI, MACD & DMI will head towards next months 3. The index went -18.35% lower than the previous big decline which equals Nasdaq declining just above where the previous wave ended 4. It took the index 23 months by the time it touched for the first time the 40SMA to bottom which means April 2024 just 6 months before the elections When the bubble burst in 2000 nobody really blamed the "system" like in 09 simply because everybody participated in it. It's like blaming yourself! How many people have the courage to do that? Could the same be told about the current situation? Yes, governments printed trillion of money but they did not put a gun in your head telling you, it's either you invest in crypto/stock market or you are done. We participated because our friends and family did, we participated because we were greedy, we participated because we believed in a fairytale and we participated because we wanted an"exit" from the system but all we did was feed the system! I cannot really find any really strong arguments to support that the same will not happen again in the not-so-distant future. I am only thinking that if it is that obvious maybe the markets can stay irrational longer than we can stay solvent! I stand by the Tradinview's motto LOOK FIRST/THEN LEAP
TVC:IXIC
by Philoslother
1
BTC to move lower and test $30,000 before resuming its bull run!The relief rally in the crypto market throughout the last 2 trading sessions has definitely brought back a certain degree of positivity among the bulls. However, the price is currently heading towards an area where we have both the downward sloping diagonal resistance (blue line) of the current downward channel as well as the horizontal former support, now resistance (black line) around the $39,000 - $40,000 area that was broken to the downside on January, 21st this year. It is important to also point out that while the initial price breakdown to the downside happened on an above average volume, the current retracement to the upside is happening on a very light volume. This shows the absence of heavy institutional buying at these levels. Furthermore, we have seen another strong pick up in the Open Interest for BTC, moving from $10.7 billion to above $12.5 billion throughout the last 2 sessions. This again confirms that the current rally has been mainly driven by retail trading accounts using derivative instruments and trading on margin. We expect to see another volatile leg of the current BTC downtrend, which we expect to be the last one before the large institutional buyers start pushing the price higher. We expect to see another large wave of forced liquidations during the upcoming decline, which will once again create that cascading effect that we have previously talked about and will further accelerate the decline. The Open Interest needs to come down below $10 billion, an area where historically the price has managed to bottom and institutional investors have engaged in heavy buying activities. We are strongly bullish on BTC in 2022 and we expect to se BTC reaching levels north of $100,000 per coin in the 1st half of the year. However, we are cautious in the short-term guided by the on-chain market data and the heavy retail speculation that has led the recent rebound in the price. We will further deploy our capital to work and add more to our long-term BTC position, once we see that sharp leg lower that we anticipate. Our team sees the $28,000 - $32,000 as the optimal buying zone for the current cycle and we have strong conviction that if you are patient enough you will get a chance to buy into the market around these levels. Follow & Copy us for more detailed market analyses, profitable trading ideas and a consistent portfolio performance. Sincerely, @DowExperts
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by DowExperts
3
Give me a reason for Nasdaq to go up?I look for 3 major signs in order to initiate a long term short position 1. BB Cross ... 2. RSI Cross ... 3. Macd Cross ✅ Things however do not look good... February & March are key for the rest of the year. To be honest the party was awesome and it lasted way too much and went way too high what else do you expect? Bad signs to take into consideration: 1. Everybody on the planet is involved somehow with "investing" (www.bloomberg.com) 2. Record number of SPACs (www.statista.com) 3. Failed IPOs (sing of the trend getting weaker) + they did also an IPO in way too high valuation check for yourself some of the hottest (Rivian,Robinhood,Didi,Coupang,Roblox, Airbnb, Snowflake etc etc etc) 4. Inflation running super hot & Interest rates rise ( DO NOT FIGHT THE FED) 5. Record sale of insiders sales (medium.com) 6. US 10YR rising 7. Musk sells quite a big amount of Tesla's shares (www.barrons.com) 8. Crypto casino boom & bust 9. Margin Debt all time high (www.forbes.com) 10. Technicals look awful And i am asking myself over and over again!!! especially now that the FED said interest rates going higher (money becomes more expensive, less leverage) why the heck the stock market will go up? especially when big boys are selling and retails power is drying up... WHO'S LEFT TO BUY?
TVC:IXIC
by Philoslother
2
BTC Bullish Idea.Hey guys, here is what I am looking out for from BTC over the next 30 days. This idea is based off the Wyckoff accumulation pattern. It's a classic retail shakeout tactic where institutional investors fill or their cheap BTC orders while we sell low and buy back high. BTC dominance is starting to trend higher so Alts will likely get wrecked over the next 30 days. Time to accumulate BTC for the long term. Not financial advice, do your own research. Its a very high risk and volatile period. More updates soon.
by UnknownUnicorn15302902
7
Unfortunately there is more pain comingEveryone is still holding and remains bullish about wish future. As i see it now although i previously thought that the bottom was around $4.70 i expect a last gap down movement with an rsi and macd divergence. Upcoming results will be loaded with all the "bad" numbers so the the new CFO and management can show some improvement towards the next Qs. Retail is going to give up here since most of us will have a loss of >-50% and no liquidity and conviction to add more. Unfortunately i also did a terrible mistake in timing this one and i could have got myself a really better average price. This is a lesson for the future to wait for BOLD confirmations when adding a position and also decrease position when things turn south. I still strongly believe that Wish can turn things around but it will be a very painful time period for all the holders left. "Pain is temporary, it may last for a minute, a day , a year but eventually it will subside and something else will take it place, if we quit however it may last forever" P.S this is not a financial advice i have no clue where the stock might go, speaking for myself i am not selling short nor adding long at the moment.
WShort
by Philoslother
8
ETH We need a break here to continueGood Morning traders! I hope you had a great weekend. Mine was busy, just like the crypto markets. However the more they change the more they stay the safe. Price continues to be held EXACTLY at the area I highlighted, this is because we the market respects the areas filled with orders. Currently I can see 2 options for price movement. Orders are protected and we head lower sweeping the immediate lows before heading higher again. OR we have a failure of the head and shoulders pattern, I see this as more likely, its a very obvious pattern and retail traders like obvious patterns, whales can see the orders... As always trade safe EnvisionEJ
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by EnvisionEJ
Patterns of possible market correction or reversal 😎Trend reversal or correction chart patterns announce a reversal of the current trend on the observed chart. The output of the figure is made, theoretically, in the opposite direction to the movement that precedes the formation of the pattern. In an uptrend, a reversal pattern indicates a bearish move. On the contrary, in a downtrend, it announces an upward movement. It works in all temporalities but, the longer the temporality of the candles, the better the pattern will do and the more effective
Editors' picks
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by Ed_Ale
59
BTC weekend update the market is predictableGood morning traders and a happy weekend to you all! Today I will just to a small update recapping on the posts through the week. What did I say-stacked orders from retail traders are easy to see. What happened? stops were swept and then orders were protected. The market is fractal in nature and retail trader psychology is predictable, start looking past the basic support and resistance and you will find a greater depth of understanding in the markets. As always trade Safe EnvisionEJ
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by EnvisionEJ
The bull case for wish I do not want to get into details about fundamentals etc we all saw wish quarterly results but with some much retail in this stock i was expecting a huge decline, the fact that retail investors all over the web are so pissed about wish and start panicking and exiting their positions is a + for me as i hold a long position. Now there are some interesting things i want to point out. There was a Wish pump on reddit based on the story that there is a 50% short float, which led to a 100% increase in price in 2days!!! at the same time Peter Thiel's founders fund start liquidating their positions together with galileo and temasek holdings which all were VC's that were with wish from the beginning. (www.nasdaq.com) Now why did these guys sold? 1. They already had a good return on investment since they were wish first investors 2. With so much publicity on wish stock and the pump to $15 they had they chance to sell so many shares instantly (insane demand from retail) 3. ***I am not sure about this one but a general rule of thumb on VC's is that they sell roughly 75% of their shares when a company does IPO. (makes sense because they need liquidity to look for other Startups) Now let's look at wish itself and where it could go from here. 1. We have rsi divergence on daily chart 2. Macd is higher than the previous drop 3. DMI is also in divergence 4. The company is worth right now $3.9b with $1.5b cash and $2.5-$3b in sales 5.They are losing users which is a very bad sign long term but even if they decide to close the business they could easily sell it for 2-3x sales meaning a market cap close to $8-10b 6. If they were to go bankrupt as many people say why did they hire new C level people , why did they spend so much money on logisticis and why did they get a banking license in Europe ? 7. I hear a lot the phrase "wish sells crap" well what most people that play the markets do not understand that wish customers are the majority of the population out there, what they do not understand is the fact that people are looking to buy cheap things from china because they do not have money to afford buying from amazon,etsy,shop etc... There are no wish buyers that trade stocks, this is the one thing you all have to understand! Wish buyers are people who used to buy on traditional brick & mortar, on illegal sales on the streets , on chinese stores etc.. These people have started to explore the web with Covid and still do not have much presence online as customers of amazon and others. 8. Wish #1 competitive advantage is that even people who never bought from it have heard about it. If they manage to improve delivery times and merchants quality they are about to address the largest % of the population out there. 9. Even if they do not manage to do that , even if they drop to $2b in sales , even if they are about to get out of business i cannot imagine that there is no one big player out there that is willing to buy them for a mediocre multiple of sales. 10. IF they execute right i believe this is easily a $100b+ company in the next 3-5years stop whining and either sell and admit you were wrong or hold tight and wait.
WLong
by Philoslother
4
Wish retail about to give upIMO we are running an irregular/expended abc correction after the meme frenzy with wish. In combination with real meme stocks crush what I see is a lot of forced liquidations and retail exiting their positions due to lack of capital ( most of them all leveraged). Take also into consideration the massive options expiration this week. Therefore I expect a massive upward move in the upcoming 1-3weeks. It will be so fast that no retail trader will have the guts to follow again nor the capital since I expect real meme stocks and mostly AMC to crush! Retail will enter wish again after $32
WLong
by Philoslother
H&S^2 but retail needs to give up firstWhat i like and i do not about Wish in the short-term 1. Insane volume vs market cap & free float 2. All retail has eyes on it 3. Upcoming correction in the markets? 4. 1 H&S taking place as we speak and one bigger one might take place couple of weeks from now 5. Weak hands needs to be shaken and if is there is a general market correction most of the retail on leverage will be forced to stop loss? 6. With so much publicity over the last weeks i feel confident that wish will announce better than expected user expansion on the the next quarterly results Where is i see market cap/price targets and why 1. 2021 $55 2. 2022 $110 3. 2023 $260-$280 A vast majority of people who buy things similar to what Wish sells for many years had no presence online for 2 major reasons. 1. They did not know how to shop online (how to use their phone to do that) 2. They were afraid to do so With covid however all these shoppers are NOW starting to explore the e-commerce and trust using their credit card online to make purchases, the reason why Wish showed poorer results in 2020 vs amazon for e.g is the fact that most customers that Wish really targets were not accustomed to use their phone and order online. This type of customers have 2 major advantages vs the one that shop on amazon,etsy or shopify. 1.They have lower income, therefore they are looking for maximum bargain prices and do not really care about shipping time 2.They are more prone to spontaneous purchases and this is what you get when you enter the Wish platform Looking a little into the future i want to point out the following points 1. Shoppers on EU & US will definitely have lower purchasing power over the long term! why? because right now all we can see is the formation of the new global middle class that comes mainly from ASIA ( China, Vietnam maybe India etc..) 2. Through Wish's B2C model Chinese manufacturers can really control prices as well as increase their %profit margins vs traditional shops (brick & mortar) where there was an intermediate. With Wish they can promote whatever product they want at whatever price they want and at the same time collect precious data about their customers, something that could not happen that easily up to now. 3. You might tell me well the competition is very high on low price chinese products and there are companies right now that have 10times better plan execution and fundamentals vs Wish! sure that's a thing and Wish has to do many thing in order to reach the $100b+ market cap BUT what makes Wish unique is it's platform experience and it's brand name! Let's talk again at the end of 2021 and see how this thing have played out!
W
by Philoslother
1
EURNZD, Long Opportunity, RR 1:14Goood morning ladies and gents, EURNZD is poised to see higher prices today. It will rally up to the area marked as the final TP over the next week. Why? Simple. There was a consolidation (range) condition prior to a break to the top side. This induced retailers to look for longs, anyone who went long would have their maximum stop below the low of the range. Typical trading systems, lol. Price stop hunted to the other side of the range as expected, then cleared the EQ lows at the other side. This in turn, induced retail traders to look for shorts. However, we're currently in a Daily Bullish Institutional Orderflow with a clear objective to the topside. It's worth noting that although the daily structure is bullish, we're still in a weekly & monthly sell structure. Hence a TP at 1.68870 is advised as it's a potential point of reversal". Aligning seasonal tendencies with this technical perspective, it shows that EN tends to rally higher from the beginning of May until Mid May where a huge sell off begins, in line with our Weekly & Monthly sell structure bias. That's it for now. Take care.
Long
by Jiraiya_eth
Forex retail traders in a nutshell99% of retail FX traders are scalpers or day gamblers or "swing" traders. According to a paper on the BOJ website I'll link below, in 2015 a mindblowing 57% of retail clients were "scalpers". 86% were either scalpers (0 to 1 hour) or day gamblers (1 hour to 1 day). They excluded those with positions held over 1 month, 1 week to 1 month was only about 5%, much much smaller than all the day gambling. "Share of accounts by investment time horizon" So it's not 86% of trades it's really 86% of accounts. For something very niche that no one does. www.boj.or.jp Can't blame the FX brokers for giving their clients, which are nearly all gamblers, what they want. These gamblers looking for excitation and with get rich quick dreams. Success rate of 0% not even 1% not sure what's going on up there. They're not even meant for this business at all. Becoming a trader when you have risk & loss aversion facepalm. "It's ok I can work on my flaws and improve" It is like if being an exterminator would pay a whole lot and so people with a phobia, terrified of rats would start getting into the business "Yes I'm scared to death of rats but I can make it work, for the money do not try to demoralize me". Or snakes & spiders maybe that's a better example, more people scared of wittle spiders. Clearly ridiculous. "My whole lower body is paralysed but that won't stop me from running a marathon (on my hands?) and winning!". Since Europe banned binary options (gosh what a scam), which was at least forcing day gamblers to have fixed losses, and with the exception of a few turbos, day gamblers really have their work cut out for them: At least with online casinos they have a fixed loss. Bet 1 coin lose 1 and that's it. But when they day gamble Forex there is not "hard loss" so they can keep letting the loss get bigger and bigger (due to loss aversion). Some regulators want to fight retail trading, and keep spreading FUD about it "99% lose". What do you expect? Doesn't mean it's soooo hard, 99% lose but do not forget 99% are drunk gamblers! Forex especially since the late 2000s and even more since 2013-2015 has very little trends, not much volatility, and not that much returns to offer, so it gets a more and more negative image but FX traders are allowed to look elsewhere when nothing happens. Maybe really dumb regulators are going to ban it the moment it turns and becomes very profitable again. They have all these mental flaws: - Risk Aversion - Loss Aversion - Caring what others do and think - Casino mentality - Emotional behavior in general (FOMO, regret, confirmation bias, denial, etc many more) About the casino mentality here are 2 articles about a recent comment by Charlie Munger: www.nasdaq.com www.investopedia.com These day gamblers, at least they should pick the correct tools where they might have a chance. The best one has to be the DAX (the Dow Jones might come close too): Pros: - Very small costs (house edge is the smallest) - Lots of activity while it is open for 8 hours - I think about 1/5 days are good trend days - 90% of days have the top or bottom of the day in the first 90 minutes I think, or something like that - There are other cool stats but I don't really remember - AND many other day gamblers also bet on it! The money gamblers hope to win has to come from somewhere, well here it comes from other day gamblers. So I'm guessing all the day gamblers just do the same thing? Buy the trend when there may be one, and what separates the winners from the losers is the ones with the biggest... personalities hold their winners and have what it takes to exit losers fast... And that's it... Zero intelligence... I do not know or understand what gets the vast majority into this whole super short term game, broker propaganda? That's just how gambling mentality works? 99% can't just all be gamblers? Did people lie to them and tell them this is how you are supposed to trade? Why did I never hear about this lie myself? Does it come from what they saw in some movies and tv? (I never watch tv).
XETR:DAXEducation
by MrRenev
1
GME: CONGRATULATIONS, RETAILERS! WE WON! 🧙‍♂️What a day it has been yesterday! We can finally claim a victory in this rally. "Big sharks" and media will try to cover this surge as "Reddit malfunctioning for couple hours", but if you look at the volumes it's obvious that a significant amount of institutional shorts have been closed. The retail market has been underestimated for so many years, but greedy institutions learned it the hard way, that "APES TOGETHER - STRONG" when we work together, we harvest the jungle. Maybe most of us didn't manage to make money on this surge, but the message has been sent. Well done, lads! We're currently working on an idea that might change the typical trading forever!
NYSE:GME
by Investroy
53