A Study of Perceived Value - MESI'm looking at MES on multiple time frames and I believe the 2hr chart gives some outstanding detail and clarity on what has been going on in the markets as of late.
Using the fixed range volume profile tool and studying consolidation periods we can see that the perception of value has clearly dropped through the end of August and into September.
While I will not speculate on what may or may not have affected the drop and the recent rally, I will say that it appears as though MES has broken out of recent value and the high of it's range at 4019.25. This breakout point has yet to have been retested as a level of support.
A Fibonacci retracement with extensions taken from the high of the range to the low of the range (shown in black) shows prices interacting with the 'golden zone' between the 1.382 and 1.618 - finding resistance squarely on the 1.5 extension.
A second Fibonacci retracement taken from the high of the earlier consolidation area to the most recent current range low shows that price has interacted with a 0.618 retracement.
Together, this is strong confluence of resistance. Another element that suggests a local top (or potential reversal into the prior dominant down trend) would be the indecisive candle. We could use the high and low of the indecisive candle as a potential trigger to enter either long or short positions, respectively and a multi-timeframe approach to either entry could lead to spectacular reward to risk ratios for traders.
The overall picture looks relatively bearish long-term to me. Value has been established at a lower high and lower low than previously and price has retraced back to where it should. There is validation in both Fibonacci techniques that suggest a local top is in. This could lead to a retest of the 4019.25 level near term. If held as support, long positions at that level could lead to very profitable day and swing trades.
We should also note that the POC and value area of the earlier range has not been tested. As a result I intend to look for prices around 4140.00 as a potential target for long trades or a potential entry for shorts. This is, of course, if prices continue upwards in an uptrend.
Overall I'd say that I am leaning bearish on the S&P500 - at least until higher lows are established and resistance is used as support. Such is not the case on the the 2 hour time frame currently. I will say, however, that entering short without a trigger in this current environment seems unwise in my personal opinion. It's a good time for me to watch, understand value and the perception of value, and wait for an actionable trigger that would confirm bullishness or bearishness prior to entering a trade.
Patience pays.
Good luck everyone and Happy Trading!
Retest-structure
NASDAQ INDEX SHORT TERM ANALYSIS (A CALL OPPORTUNITY!!)The total evaluation for the NASDAQ chart is concurrently bearish over the past few months, but remained bullish in an overall decades of terms. Please be mindful of your risk management and trade accordingly with fundamentals and proper market structure (this includes familiarity towards candlesticks, indicators, etc.)
There is a very good chance we will pump right above the point of control where the volume is at its strongest, this is called a "REACTION RALLY" to the dump we just suffered the past weeks. This is especially stronger since we are sitting on a support that we just bounced around June and May 2022, this is the 3rd back-test and re-test which can serve as a strong notion for a long/call position. Simultaneously, this pump can also push crypto to 19,800$-20,200$ and ETH to 1,720$-1,750$ only fo r EVERYTHING TO GO DOWN conveniently on a bad CPI report on September 13.
Quite coincidental am I right? Its approaching resistance and there's a cpi report, maybe too obvious of a pattern for market makers but fear not, I recognized this and wanted to share it to you all!
If you are wondering what are the jitteries on the circles and everything, the full chart can be found in my profile. Its in the same NASDAQ name but in a longer term of analysis, the same information and movement can be similar
to the SP500 therefore it is not necessary for me to make another chart regarding it.
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ETHEREUM PERSONALY ANALYSIS IN THE SHORT TERM (SUPER BULLISH!) The total evaluation for the ethereum chart in the short term is bullish. Please be mindful of your risks as usual and the only reason as to why I am writing this with bullish sentiment because as you can see in the chart, the volume profile gave us a clear indication as to why we did not dump for 3 days because of the fact that this area has so much volume congestion of trading activity -- it literally served as support. We might reach 1800$ at this point or depending on the trajectory we might even get a second retest at 2,000$. Goodluck everyone!
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TATAMOTORS breakout 14% MOVE UPSIDETATAMOTORS has given a breakout and retesting nice entry opportunity to enter
REASON TO ENTER
1. Breakout
2. High volume
3. Retesting
I HAVE EXPLAINED EVERYTHING ON THE CHART FOR MY VIEWERS SO THEY CAN EASILY GRAB THE OPPORTUNITY
AND SHARE IT WITH YOUR FRIENDS SO THEY CAN ALSO TAKE BENEFIT OF IT
USDJPY sell setupusd jpy was trending bullish from quite long time now market has found a strong resistance area market reversing from that resistance zone
wait for the retest of the structure
look for bearish confirmations on lower time frames and sell usd jpy with proper money management and risk to reward ratio
patience is the key
ETH heading strong resistance and good support levelshello all
i think we breakout from a range area and surpass the 1280 resistance.
now we reach 1650 resistance and the market react to it.
so i think we have a pullback to 1300 area and after that toward 1650 again
and repeatedly react to 1650 resistance and after that will go for 2000 resistance.
also maybe we have a 50% correction of this impulse wave that shows the 1300 level too.
Etherum has good fundamentals according to merge upgrade.so this targets are reachable
in coming months.
share me your opinion in comments.
GBPJPY Sell opportunity GBPJPY first broke the trend line than broke a support
now market is going to retest the broken support which become a resistance now
wait for the retest of broken structure and look for bearish confirmation on lower time frames
than sell GBPJPY with proper money management and risk to reward
patience is the key in the financial world
AUDJPY sell opportunityAUDJPY broke the trend line and also the recent support
now market is going to retest the broken support which is now become resistance
strong bearish momentum
wait for the retest of broken structure than look for confirmation on lower time frames and sell AUDJPY with proper money management and risk to reward ratio
always remember
Patience is the key
chf/jpy sell oppertunityas we mentioned last day chf jpy rejected from the double top and given us a good bearish drop last night
broke the trend line and back at retesting the broken structure
look for bearish confirmation on lower time frames and short it with proper money management
always remember
patience and discipline is the key in the financial world
Possible double bottom structureWhile checking out the 1 minute today in SPX and NQ I found at the top this common structure that the market uses for correction. Then while checking out the weekly I saw that we're kinda forming the same.
If this is confirmed, I see us going one more leg down to retest the bottom after earnings/FOMC in early August, maybe tagging the 200ma and then possibly going up to test 4400/4500 in SPX.
Easy Trading Setup For GOLD (XAU/USD)Hi Traders,
Happy Monday.
Today we are looking at GOLD (XAU/USD)
We are on the 4-hour time frame. I am noticing that the price is bouncing nicely between two zones of support and resistance. We are also seeing giant wicks on either side indicating that there is indecision in the market. The bulls are trying to come back in but the bears won't let them.
This causes the price to stay in between two tight zones and consolidate.
We also see that volume has been slowly decreasing and sloping down as time goes on. This too, indicates that this market is tired at this point. Indecision is strong and people are waiting to see which way the price will pop.
We have two possibilities.
Possibility 1 )
I would like to see the price bounce up and close above the resistance zone above. I would then like to see strong volume accompany this strong move upwards. If we see this play out, I would then look for a retrace back into the yellow resistance zone before opening up a long position with my targets being where the previous price structure was which is around the 1771 price point. Some further confluence that can help validate and give confidence to this particular possible setup, is that we have an imbalance on the left-hand side. We have a gap between 1752 and 1760 and the price needs to fill this gap. Inbalance in the markets usually does get filled. Whether this is a self-fulfilling prophecy is a topic for another day, however, this gives us further confluence to help validate the possibility of price breaking to the upside and heading higher.
Possibility 2)
If the price moves impulsively down and breaks and closes below the support zone, then I would look for high bearish volume to accompany this move. Once we see the break and close, I would then wait for the price to retrace back into the support zone before opening up a short position.
My target for a short position would be around the 1679 price point which lines up nicely with previous daily support.
These support points have been respected nicely on the daily time frame for some time however, they are giant wicks which tells me that there are many buy orders in that 1679 price level.
So whichever way the price decides to move will dictate to us if we should be bullish or bearish in this time frame and whether we will be opening up a long or short position.
Remember, as I am a swing trader, I always stay patient and I only enter into positions that present a viable opportunity to make profits. And on that note, I bid you all a fantastic rest of your Monday and as always, I will be seeing you all in the next one.
The Vortex Trader
SELL - GBPJPY POTENTIAL SHORT ( BREAKOUT AND RETEST OCCURED)Evidently GBPJPY has broken the channel that formed. The channel was then subsequently retested and rejected from successfully; for this reason, I believe a short from the current price to the 4 hour support level would be highly probable. More importantly, confirmation of this bearish bias can be seen on the daily time frame, where a rejection from a key price resistance level has presented itself.
*NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, MERELY AN OPINION.*
EURJPY If he rejects the resistance zone I SHORTWelcome back! Here's an analysis of this pair!
**EURJPY - Listen to video!
We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met.
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EURUSD Watch for Bounce from Demand AreaWelcome back! Here's an analysis of this pair!
**EURUSD - Listen to video!
We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met.
Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future.
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GBPUSD | New perspectiveA significant breakout of the bearish trendline on the 1 Hour time frame appears to be a major signal that the bulls are taking charge hence the reason I am looking forward to a bullish momentum going into the New-York session. So, to make preparation for entry easier, I have identified a key level at $1.25300 that will be a guide to taking advantage of the potential bullish move.
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You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
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Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.