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BTCUSD: Price Aims Higher As Risk Increases.BTCUSD update: Minor consolidation forming above the positive sloping trend line which is likely to lead to a bullish break out. Triangles are trend continuation patterns and so far the momentum as defined by price structure remains bullish. As price is poised to climb higher, our concern is the over head resistance located in the high 7400's and above (not on chart). This along with the fact that the higher price goes, the higher the risk of retrace. At S.C., we do not react to price action, we evaluate and anticipate. For our swing trade methodology, the current location makes putting on new trades too aggressive. Less experienced traders do not realize that not every setup is high quality, especially since they hunger for action. One of the toughest lessons to learn is the market will occasionally reward bad habits. Over trading, low probability trades, buying highs, etc. This phenomenon is no different than when a casino game randomly rewards a player. This ignites hope, and stimulates further play. There is no such thing as a professional slot machine player is there? This is why having criteria and sticking to it is so important, no matter what the market is showing. And Bitcoin is in one of those situations where it is showing a potential setup, but the risk is high. Best practices prevent us from buying into such conditions. In summary, at S.C. we have a swing trade plan that governs what trade setups we can take. Bitcoin may push higher, but the risk outweighs the potential reward at this point. Like I wrote in my article earlier today, a retrace to 7K or into the 6800 area presents a much more attractive opportunity. What separates our research from many is that we do no pretend to know where price is going next. Instead we are open to the possibilities of where it can go, and then let the market prove itself. If it aligns with our criteria, then great we have a trade. If it does not, then we sit it out, no matter how great the chart may look. This simple form of discipline is why our performance record is in the positive. Much of it has less to do with hitting home run 10,000% trades and more to do with avoiding many would be losses. I often remind our followers that successful market timing has as much to do with a good defense as it does a good offense. No one wants to hear it though, because defense is never fun or appreciated since the majority of traders are focused on profits. True the purpose of putting money to work is to gain a return. The mistake is in following the natural instinct of obsessing over the return which is what contributes to its elusiveness. All of this translates into: timing is about organizing information, following rules, and waiting for the market to conform to criteria. And yes, it is far from the excitement and glamour portrayed by the financial media. If you want excitement, casinos offer a much better experience for your emotional needs.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
19
BTCUSD: Next Leg Higher Can Break 8500.BTCUSD update: This market has retraced into an attractive support area. As price action stabilizes, it can be setting up for the next leg higher. This is the location where a breakout offers much more potential compared to a break of a high. At S.C., we have been tracking this retrace carefully. We have also issued and adjusted swing trade orders in markets like ETH and LTC which also have a lot of potential if this next bullish leg unfolds. The 7450 area happens to be the .382 retrace of the current bullish structure. If the recent strength is going to stay intact, this level will have to be maintained. Reversal candles off this level will provide the validation we need to justify risk on the swing trade and position trade time frames. IF the next leg higher unfolds, a target of the 8500 area is within reason. In theory, price should push to a higher high if it is going to keep the integrity of the bullish structure. The low 9Ks would be a more aggressive expectation, but since this market is in recovery mode, giving it a chance to reach further is in line with best practices. IF the market manages to reach these levels, they will be a place to lock in profits, not initiate new positions. If price falls apart, which it can, the next support area is around the 7K whole number. A retrace to these levels or below will change the nature of the current price structure from bullish to more of a range bound context over the near term. In summary, waiting for price location and setups to align is a process based on patience. Not reacting to news, rumors and other conspiracy theories is the first step. Also following simple best practices such as buying near support levels in markets that have proven to be strong also helps. This market is poised to go higher, but there is no guarantee. Being able to recognize and factor in risk is a key trait of a successful market timer. Just like patience, you do not need to be an expert to consider risk. It begins with asking questions like: What happens if my trade goes the wrong way? How far is within reason in terms of market structure? How far is too far? And if it goes this far, how much capital loss is acceptable? These questions should be answered BEFORE you enter the trade. As S.C. we are anticipating a move higher, but we always consider the risks no matter how attractive the setup. This is how we determine if an idea is more appropriate for a swing or position trade and what sizing strategy to use. No matter what, we know that the market is always right. Our job is to listen and adjust to new information as it becomes available. Having an open mind and being flexible are what help you align your decisions with the probabilities of what its next move.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
28
BTCUSD: Buy The Supports, Not The Hype.BTCUSD update: Inside bar is established just after the 8500 peak. This points to the beginning of a retrace but how far? The most common mistake is to attempt to short this market because of the perceived bearish potential. It is a mistake because the momentum is clearly bullish. Probability favors shallow retraces and supportive levels. This is a time to be patient and wait for longs, not take high risk shorts. At S.C., we locked in an 11% profit on some inventory that we were accumulating while the "experts" were shouting BTC 3K. We were simply following best practices which say buy weakness and sell strength. We also employ strategies across multiple time frames and don't depend on one like swing trading alone. Like Andrew tells our followers, its about base hits, not the home run mentality. Many more aggressive and impatient traders figure they will make money on the short side. Especially now that this market has so much room to pull back. This perspective may be appropriate for day trade strategies but any larger time frame and you are asking for trouble. Why work against the momentum when all you have to do is wait for price to offer an opportunity that is packed with potential. Like a retrace to a support. The 7500 area is the nearest relevant support (.382 of bullish structure). You are looking at 500 point potential on a short vs. about 1000+ points potential on a long if a reversal appears somewhere between 8K and 7500. Trying to play both sides often leads to confusion, forced trades and unnecessary fees. Not to mention the slippage you must pay when your stop orders don't fill at a fair price. This is typical when caught in a short squeeze. Patience on the other hand costs nothing, requires very little energy and if you are wrong and the market leaves you behind, your account is still intact. Patience pays off when the market eventually presents that infrequent high probability setup. In summary, at S.C. we constantly push for best practices. We are still bullish on this market just like we were 3 months ago. We believe in the merit of these technologies and follow probabilities as revealed by our charts, not nonsensical hype that this space is polluted with. When momentum shifts like it has in BTC, the probabilities of the coming support and resistance levels also change. Instead of fighting the market, we simply wait for it to align with our criteria. You do not have to be an expert to utilize the skill of patience. You do need to have a decision making process in place, no matter how simple or complex. This process is what leads to the criteria that needs to be matched by the market. No match, no trade. That makes patience much easier than trying to compete with the fear of missing out. Our plan is to buy the pull back when price presents an attractive level, formation and setup. At the moment we are anticipating the mid 7500s. Any lower and we will be looking for more accumulation opportunities as well.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
56
ETHUSD: Formations Point To 490s. Signal Is Key.ETHUSD update: Lack of follow through takes this market back to the low 450s. This comes after a buy trigger appeared on Saturday at 464. More interesting is the fact that BTC pushed higher while the majority of the alts remained weak. What happened to "follow the leader"? At S.C., we were able to save our followers from this lack of momentum that began with the trigger on Saturday. Instead of buying like the herd, we called for a limit order way under the market. And more importantly we sent an instruction to cancel that order today by noon. People who followed were able to avoid the pull back into the 440s and are now patiently waiting for the next opportunity. Price is probing the 455 to 439 support zone. This is our next area of focus and IF the right signal appears, we will share our next swing trade long idea. Do not bang your head against the wall trying to figure out why the alts are not following the leader. When it comes to short term market timing, it really doesn't matter why. Relationships between markets change constantly, and that is all you really need to know. As we say at S.C., it works until it doesn't. Patterns, levels and formations offer a much better clue as to what is likely to happen next. Not abstract intermarket relationships or fundamental logic. At S.C., we are anticipating a bullish retrace over the next 8 days. There is no guarantee that it will unfold this way, but if the right signs show up, we are prepared to buy. In summary, do not always measure a trade call by its profit target. If a strategy or method can also help prevent losses, that is just as good as a win. Anyone can call trades, but not everyone can call for a good market defense. Location plays an important role when evaluating the probabilities of a particular idea or outcome. And the location of price in this market certainly features some compelling formations that make for an attractive long. It is just a matter of the right signal and having the patience to wait for it.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
5
BTCUSD - Potential RetracementResistance is seen at the 100MA (on the daily time frame), must break through before next rocket. We have tried numerous times to break the resistance at 7500-7700 and been denied, the bull run has been good but is it loosing steam now? Look for a retrace from 6800-7000 where we should gain enough strength for another bull run, this time to hopefully succeed in breaking the 100MA (on daily) and the major resistance at 7500-7700. Safe trading...
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by krs_analytics
1
ETHUSD: 450 Area Potential For Next Buy.ETHUSD update: Following the BTC surge, this market has reversed out of the 494 to 518 minor resistance zone which should not be a surprise. Now that a bullish trend line has also been established, it is more reasonable to expect supports to hold as this market continues. The 455 to 439 minor support (.618 of recent bullish swing) is the next area that we are eyeing for reversal patterns. Based on the current rate of momentum, the next low is likely to be established over the next couple of days. If this support is cleared, the low 400's is the next area to anticipate a bullish reversal. It all depends on how BTC unfolds. Sentiment dominates short term price action and at S.C. we are always on the lookout for extremes across a variety of magnitudes. Extreme sentiment is where the highest probability setups appear. In summary, buying pull backs can be tricky. Now that bullish price action is gaining a grip on these markets, it is within reason to expect more follow through. The next leg up has potential to test the 515 swing high at least. That is the what we will be using as a point of reference for profit targets. The best thing you can do is learn to think in probabilities. Certain methodologies and tools help you do this better than others. Earlier on S.C. I wrote an article about Elliott Wave and shared an updated count on BTC. When used properly, it serves as a valuable guide to compare to price action as it unfolds. Check it out because it offers some insight into the broader expectations of this market as well.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
3
Shorting the retrace on NZD/CHFTrade setup: - Great run on the daily for NZD/CHF with some 1% up. - Retrace bound to happen, just being denied at previous resistance level. Reasons for trade Chart - Price overextended for a one day run, bound to retrace - Denied at previous resistance level, which coincides to be R2 on chart - Slight double top formation Oscillators - RSI sitting at around 70 on the 1 hr chart, which almost always means turnaround - Stochastic topped out. - Both indicators show bearish divergence Entry - Just entered, as close as R2 .67940 as possible Exit -Would enjoy some input. Dabbling between more conservative and more aggressive targets. Either .67750 or .67540 - Big move implies big retrace Stop -Been losing so many good trades due to weak stop losses, putting this one .68050, a good 11 pips above the top resistance level. -Input appreciated on this one
Short
by isarnil
BTCUSD: Higher Low Can Lead To Inverted Head & Shoulders.BTCUSD update: Price has retraced to the 6300 area which is serves as a minor support. As I wrote in today's S.C. report, this market is in position to establish an inverted head and shoulders pattern which is a long term bullish sign. Since there are no specific triggers to go long, we are still waiting see if price offers a buying opportunity around the 6K area. This is a go and stop market, one that does not treat reactionary traders nicely. Understanding the type of environment and where to anticipate movements based on probability is key. This is why we did not buy the consolidation break out going into the resistance zone. The risk of retrace was high and the situation did not fit the criteria of our swing trade plan.The question is where is the best place to get long since the retrace is in progress? 6167 to 5999 is the minor .618 support zone relative to the recent bullish swing. This would be a very convenient and high probability location for a reversal candle to appear. The other level is the 5669 reversal zone boundary which would be the extreme price scenario. This is when the market usually looks the ugliest and the weak hands are shaken. In summary, if this market establishes a broader higher low formation around the current price, it could lead to a test of the 7120 reversal zone. As I wrote in my detailed S.C. report, this level serves as a reasonable point of reference for short term profit targets. The broader formation is in line with our high probability location premise that we have been writing about since May. If it follows through, price can very well be on its way back to the 7381 resistance and beyond. At S.C. we prepare and wait for the market to offer opportunities that fit within the scope of our risk profile. These opportunities are not isolated to one strategy, and is the reason why we accumulate inventory as well as take shorter term swing trades. Many less experienced traders have a tough time in these markets because they rely on tools or information that focus on irrelevant price activity. Projected support and resistance, psychological numbers and chart patterns can provide a lot of value in a noisy environment where oscillators are much less effective. Either way, prepare for scenarios rather than "predict" them. At least this way you put yourself in a position to let the market come to you.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
18
ETHUSD: Sell Trigger Can Lead To Test Of 440 Support.ETHUSD update: 482 pin bar low has been taken out which is a sell trigger according to our perspective at S.C. The lower high off the 494 to 518 minor resistance zone is the reason why we were not interested in any swing trade longs. The coming retrace will serve as an important test of the recent strength that has appeared in these markets. Price is near the newly established bullish trend line after breaking 482. If price continues to push lower, the next level we will be watching for is the 440 area. This is a minor bullish reversal zone boundary (not on chart for sake of simplicity). IF a bullish pin bar appears around the 440 level or around 423, we will be looking for a swing trade long trigger. A sell signal like the one that just appeared is good for locking in some profit if you managed to buy at lower prices. Since we do not short these markets, shorting is not a possibility within the scope of our strategies. We are also holding inventory in BTC and other coins and will not sell any during the next retrace. The long term probability that these markets climb out of these lows is just beginning. With the amount of long term potential baked into these markets, there is no reason to lighten up on our positions at these levels, even in the face of a sell trigger. In summary, as I wrote earlier in my S.C. report, it is important to have a detailed process the defines every part of your decision making. We separate our strategies by time frame and define our decision making criteria from there. That type of organization is what serves as the most effective guide during conflicting signals such as a sell trigger within a slow grind recovery. At S.C., we look at these markets through the lense of a position trader and swing trader simultaneously. If this market retraces back to extrme prices like the 390s, we will be looking to accumulate more. If price instead forms a broader higher low, we will be looking for the swing trade long. Either way, we have a predetermined plan for what the market decides, not what we "predict" it will do. Check S.C. for trade ideas because that is where we share them with our followers.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
6
LTCUSD: Playing Follow The Leader. What Is A Reasonable Target?LTCUSD update: Current price action appears to be signaling the beginning of a broader retrace across the board. This market is simply following along but offers some interesting observations as far as levels go. 90.58 is the reversal zone boundary relative to the 108 area low made back in April. The fact that price has taken out the high of the previous day's candle is a bullish sign. As I wrote in my earlier report on S.C., we do need to be aware of some of the major economic events. You don't need to know the details, you just need to know what time the economic event is going to occur. Events like NFP, FOMC and any other interest rate sensitive releases for major currencies. Do not forget that the digital coins are exchanged for local fiat and we take fiat stability for granted since it moves only fractions of a penny. Today the ECB hammered the forex market and this markets reacted. Again, it is just good practice to be aware of the major events. It can help shed more light on particular price action or levels. The big question now is can this bounce evolve further into a sustained price recovery? To offer some perspective in this area, I can say that at S.C., we issued a long idea in ETH. Basically, no matter what coin you bought, it is all the same trade. Since bearish structure is still intact, we have chosen a conservative target. The strategy behind the target? Since potential is still bearish in these markets, we would rather take profits sooner than not to mitigate risk. And since all these markets are just following BTC, the same philosophy should apply. In this market, the 112 area would be the nearest target since that is where the bearish trend line is located. Also the 125 resistance is the .382 of the recent bearish swing. If price makes it back there, that would be a convenient second target. Keep in mind as long as price stays below this level, it is a better idea to remain conservative with short term long positions. In summary, focus on price and structure and you will align yourself more with probability rather than randomness. The market dictates its intentions through its natural formations which are nothing more than patterns expressed through order flow. Like I wrote earlier, it is a good idea to be aware of events that can affect a market, but do not try to guess how the market will be affected. Let the emotions of the crowd bring the setup to you, not the other way around. Check S.C. for updates on our swing trade long.
BITFINEX:LTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
2
Possible short term trade / short squeezeShorts are ramping up again and a squeeze could be in order. Keep in mind this is a counter trend trade so don't expect this to go beyond previous highs. What I would suggest is look for an entry in the 397 to 414 range and aim for 580 as profit target. This is a high risk trade. Other indicators are also looking ready for a squeeze, it could take another 1 to 3 days before there is enough build up selling pressure to squeeze. -RSI is almost below 30, aiming for 25-26 ish. - Up trend line is in the 400 area - MACD bearish - Buyers have left the space looking at the DMI, needs a bit more selling pressure. It's currently at a 9.1 (green line) and would like to see it at 7.8 or 8. - Shorts are high. This is no exact science and lots of selling pressure could send us tumbling through the uptrend line etc, because we are still in a bear trend. So instead of placing limit orders right now and hoping for the best, it probably is a good idea to set an alarm at $432 ETH and look at the price action from there. If you see buyers returning on a smaller timeframe (1H for example) then a swing trade long could be in place. Be careful out there ;)
by GoingDutch
recover to $7400 then bust $7400 seems the last call to short before we go down down! everyone has been calling a lot of bullish posts getting the fomo going but it was never going to happen, each wave looked weak and didnt have the makings of a strong run in it. which brings us to where we are today, another serial dump followed by what has to be more blood. the 2 waves shown are the larger ABC(de?) wave and the current abcde. there is now resistance at the <$7400 area and both of these waves can only retrace that far. looks like we are heading to sub 7s very soon. it could of looked good if we'd popped above and held $7700 but not enough people onboard. despite the social media hype im starting to believe that more people have realised this thing is heading down. to those who are new to the game, dont follow people on twitter, their minds change more frequent then my underwear and to those who are already well into this game trust your TA and dont be tempted into fomo. peace
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by cooper_5e
1