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Retrace

XRP still within logarithmic channelMy target box was only missed by a couple of cents. We all knew this was coming. Price action still well inside the log channel. Retrace can go down to 2.4$ action (previous ATH). It didn't dump as hard as some people would've thought/liked. Check the correction on the previous high for a comparison. Keep an eye on the price when it gets to the channel lines. If it falls through. Bear cycle. If it holds, mega bull time. Next target if line holds would be 4.2$
BITSTAMP:XRPUSD
by Sonace
4
ETHUSD: Sub 1000 Psychological Resistance Area Higher Risk?ETHUSD update: 954 all time high reached as price reacts to the upper boundary of the 945 reversal zone. Price momentum is bullish and is likely to test 1000 but buying at current prices presents increased risk. This price action is nothing new. When you have strong markets like we have seen in these coins, it is still better to lock SOME profits at highs, and look to buy nearer supports. The biggest problem that I see with new investors is they are controlled by greed. They want to sell at the exact top and feel as if they have lost if the market goes higher without them. This is a normal reaction but must be identified and eliminated because this same greed is what leads to turning a winning position into a losing one. The 945 upper boundary of the reversal zone is a projected level that is measured from the 492 low. IF price fails within this zone, like it is now, that presents a situation that is similar to a double top but not as obvious. This zone, along with target extensions serve as better places to lock in profits, not establish new positions. Why not lock in all profits and just buy back on the pullback? The reason is there is no way to be certain that price will retrace or how much. By locking in some profit, you reduce risk if price decides to fall apart, and by holding onto some of the position allows you to continue to participate in the market IF it continues higher without any significant retrace. This is how a swing trade evolves into a position trade. We can't control profits, we can control risk. As far as where to buy now, the first level I am anticipating is the 835 minor support (.382 of recent bullish swing) which is also an old resistance/new support level (inversion). The second area is the 761 to 710 zone which is relative to the .618 of the recent bullish swing measured from the 640 low. Buying at these levels would be for a swing trade and would have a target some where in the high 900s. The risk has to be determined at the time of the entry. And that will be based on what kind of price action unfolds IF the market chooses to retest one of these areas. I would like to see a reversal pattern such as a double bottom or failed low before I consider anything else. What if price never pulls back? Then I miss the move. I do not care about how high or low markets go, I am only interested in opportunities that present a well defined risk, a signal that shows momentum is in my favor, and a target that is within reason and relatively attractive compared to the risk I have to take. It is possible price may hesitate to retrace and just continue higher to test the psychological 1K resistance, but the risk is unattractive at current levels. In summary, the concept of selling while you can is nothing new to professionals who are aware of the limitations of greed. When markets push highs, that is an opportunity to sell while buyers are plentiful, while selling the precise top is irrelevant. Buying strong markets at a low point offers greater reward potential at a lower risk. Controlling risk is what leads to long term success in any market, not home runs. In a case like this market, waiting for a retrace to a relevant level is the best I can do, especially when price is showing some signs of selling off of a projected resistance area. All markets eventually retrace and if the market I am interested refuses to, then I will look elsewhere for a market that offers opportunities that make much more sense in terms of the risk I have to take. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
32
End of Price Retracement NZDCADThe price of the asset is being traded in a correction after breaking the resistance line with a strong bullish movement that has created a new higher high. With this information and with the asset being trade in the price correction, we should expect a bullish break. This market analysis is just a investment idea, the same shouldn't be taken as a financial counseling without risk envolved. CFD´s are very complex financial products that can result on the loss of most capital invested
Long
by UnknownUnicorn1383471
BTCUSD: Key Resistance Zone Near. Watch Supports For Higher Low.BTCUSD Update: The market recovery continues as price nears a key resistance zone. This is an area to consider locking in some profits, not establishing new longs. The higher low formation that materialized in the 11600 area has lead to a new bullish swing that has quickly worked its way near the 16350 to 17876 resistance zone which is the current .618 resistance area relative to the recent bearish structure. On top of that, price is currently sitting on the upper boundary of a minor reversal zone that is projected from the 11600 low. Even though there are no bearish reversal signs at the moment, this is an area where selling is more likely to appear. On the more bullish side, price has taken out the 14250 resistance level decisively which signals that the previous bearish momentum is much less likely to lead to a retest of the 11K lows. If price decides to retrace from the current area, it is more likely to find support around 14300 level (.382 of recent bullish swing) or the 13270 to 12500 area which is relative to the .618 of the recent bullish swing. Any retest and reversal off of these support areas are where reward/risk are most attractive compared to where price is now in terms of my swing trade strategy. Measuring risk in this market is very dependent on what you can afford since the small movements are hundreds of points. If you are going to use a stop, it has to be wide, and that is why under these market conditions, I think it makes more sense to start with smaller positions and build them as the market moves favorably and taking profits along the way at the predetermined levels IF your outlook is short term. All of this must be figured out BEFORE you take a trade. Being flexible and open for anything means you are open to listening to the market, not fighting it. For whatever reason, IF price breaks below the 12500 level again, that would open the door for a retest of the 10K lows and offer more attractive investment opportunities. Navigating these markets is not about "predicting", it is about adjusting and interpreting new information as it becomes available while comparing it to a predetermined scenario(s) originating from information available at the present time. In summary, timing short term trades in these markets may seem less effective when prices are moving in vertical lines. The thing to remember is "vertical moves" are far from the norm and low probability. That means the people who start out in the green simply because they bought into this market blindly will have to face sharp corrections just as randomly while the informed trader is prepared to capitalize on such extreme scenarios. The same impulsiveness and impatience that drives the inexperienced investor are the same forces that build opportunities for those who know how to wait, even in the face of markets that look like they are going up forever. Stop giving into the impulse of greed, and learn to wait for the market to come to you. People who were buying at 18K, expecting 30K had to watch a retest of 10K instead. That cycle is nothing new and will repeat itself again and again while varying in magnitude. Learn to wait, or at least manage risk in ways that allow you to capitalize on extreme moves rather than be hurt by them. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
20
ETHUSD: Watch For These Signs As The Bounce Continues.ETHUSD update: From 863 to 492 in two days as all the coins experience a larger than usual retrace. The recovery leg is where things can be tricky, and I will explain what to look for in this market in order to determine if it will continue back to the highs or develop into a broader head and shoulders pattern. As I wrote about in my previous BTC report, if you are investing, there is no safety in these markets. The best thing you can do is buy nearer a low and have a plan that guides your choices IF the market decides to retest the low, or consolidate before retesting the high. This plan is something you must develop, it does not matter how new to investing you are. As far as this market goes, price has recovered quickly off the 492 level which is at the lower boundary of the .618 area support of the recent bullish structure. The long wick and break of that candle's high are bullish signs that make it reasonable to anticipate a higher low formation around the 628 level which is the .382 of the current bullish swing. Also any retest of the 573 to 500 zone (.618 of recent bullish structure) offers an attractive area to look for bullish reversals on smaller time frames (4 hour, 1 hour). This 628 and 573 to 500 areas offer attractive reward/risk for swing trades in particular, which means you will have a predefined stop and target which have to be determined at the time of the trade. These levels are attractive because they are the proportionate resistance levels that the market can reasonably retest. The first level of resistance is the 712 to 772 zone (.618 of recent bearish swing) which price is testing as I write this. A push through this area (very possible) can take price back into the 815 area where price sold off initially. This resistance is not only a projected target on the weekly (written about in previous report), but now a potential double top area which makes it a good profit target for swing trades. The current resistance zone is tricky. Recent price action typically pushes through these initial zones after a more dramatic sell off, only to test the highs and go beyond. This is not a behavior that can be counted on. So I say there are two key behaviors to watch for: A tight consolidation within the zone forming a small bull flag which can be interpreted as the market is going higher, or a failed high formation, bearish pin bar(s), or a bearish outside bar which will establish a lower high and imply a retest of support levels. If a lower high unfolds in this area, it would complete the right shoulder of a head and shoulders formation which is a very bearish sign. All I am saying is keep your eyes open because it can happen. A bearish head and shoulders can take price back to the 500 level or slightly lower which would be a attractive investment opportunity in my opinion. In summary, before taking any position, you must first decide on an outlook. If it's long term, then you have to size appropriately in terms of the risk you can afford and stick it out no matter how low it goes. That's investing, NOT swing trading. If a short term move is what you are more interested in capitalizing on, then you must pay attention to the structures and enter the market when the price presents a formation that makes sense in terms of reward/risk. The other thing is you must EXIT at least a portion of the trade when a target is reached. If you want to then transition into a longer time horizon for a smaller portion of the position, you will have that choice (as long as you are willing to give back your profit in the smaller position). Where you are exiting the trade should be determined before you enter, no matter what time frame or strategy you are employing. In terms of my plan, I prefer to look for a swing trade at one of the predetermined supports and evaluate from there. Question and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
24
BTCUSD: 50% Correction? Good Time To Think Long.BTCUSD update: From 19830 to 10700 in two days, basically a 50% retrace. Instead of worrying about why, my focus is evaluating where and when to buy. The market is a harsh teacher. People who jumped in near the highs expecting this market to go to 30K are now learning about risk. All the coins are retracing 20%+ in a matter of hours. The good news is this type of retrace is normal and healthy and offers opportunity for those who are patiently waiting for a RELATIVELY lower risk area to begin trading or investing. The short term news or reasons behind this are irrelevant while TA will guide more effective timing during extreme price moves. In terms of TA, the 14450 support (.382 of recent bullish structure) was cleared without any hesitation. This is why waiting for reversal patterns is so important when it comes to timing and managing risk for swing trades. The 10700 low is the upper boundary of the .618 support zone that expands as low as the 8650 area. As you can see, price has bounced significantly off this area and is presenting a bullish pin bar at the moment. The question is: when do you buy? This is where your plan comes in. You must first decide what type of trade you are comfortable taking. If you are looking to add to an investment, that is much different than timing for a swing trade. Buying for the long term is not a bad idea nearer the lows. If you are buying while there is no structure in place, price can easily retrace into the 9 or 8K range. Building a position in small increments is more appropriate in the 10700 to 8500 area compared to much higher prices. If you are buying to invest, there is no precision. Managing risk is more of a function of position size relative to what you can afford. If price happens to go to 5K (less likely, BUT it can anything can happen), you have to be OK with that. RISK is high in these markets, and if you can't handle losing everything that you put in, then you should not invest. Embracing the potential loss is what will help you become immune to the fear during extreme moves. The same fear that pushes the less experienced out of their longs. (Do NOT do this type of investing with margin. If you do not understand why, you need to do some homework). Averaging into a market during extreme retraces is better than buying highs, BUT is NOT safe either, if you seek safety, you are in the wrong market. This is for the aggressive investor. As far as timing short term trades (swing trading), waiting for a retest of the low offers the best reward/risk relative to the nearest targets. Compared to averaging in, this method offers defined targets and stops. For this strategy, I would wait for a double bottom or failed low near the 10950 to 8650 zone and use the low of that structure to define the risk for the trade. Waiting for the structure on a smaller time frame (4 Hour, 1 Hour) offers more stability than randomly buying any low. As far as potential targets, the 14200 level (.382 of bearish swing) and the 16350 to 17900 area (.618 zone of bearish swing) offer areas that are proportionate to the current correction and provide realistic profit targets to measure reward from. As long as price stays below the 14200 resistance, it is more likely to retest lows rather than highs. As far as an immediate recovery that new participants have grown accustomed to, I would say the more likely scenario is for the market to go into a broader consolidation after such a retrace which can take a week or two to play out. In summary, maybe now some people have learned why locking in some profits and reducing risk on highs is so important. A 50% cut in two days is extreme and offers a long term buying opportunity for aggressive investors who know how to embrace loss. Otherwise, getting back in for short term moves still requires waiting since there are no reversal structures in place yet. Your plan is what should guide your decision making, not your feelings. Comments and question welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
44
LTCUSD: The More Attractive Level To Buy.LTCUSD update: Retracing from 370 high, price is beginning to hold. Is this a good place to buy for the next leg up? And how high can it go? From the short term trading perspective, buying the pullback in a strong market is the more effective behavior compared to buying into highs. The tough part is when do you buy into the pullback? And how do you know it won't pull back further? This is where the projected levels come into play. Projected levels on larger time frames carry more weight and are more reliable than the levels measured on smaller time frames. That is why I am watching the 258 support (.382 of bullish structure measured from 84 low). If I am going to buy for a swing trade, I prefer to start looking for reversals that I can measure risk from (like a double bottom on a smaller time frame) in this area because a retest and reversal still keeps the broader trend intact while offering attractive reward potential based on the information available at the moment. It is not unreasonable to expect a retest of the 370 high if the market can stabilize within a higher low area. The key to trading this effectively is waiting for the retest and confirmation which the market may NOT offer at all. You may wonder, "Then why wait for 260? Just buy it once it starts going up from any support and as long as the reward potential is greater than your risk, its okay? Otherwise you miss all the huge gains!". Adjusting to a level that the market decides to stabilize around other than the projected support is fine, BUT you need to realize when the noise comes back into these markets, you will be giving back the the "GAINS!" that you acquired by getting sucked in to many false starts. This is about forming habits that lead to consistency, not "you only made 100% when you could have made 500%!", that same mentality will set you up to donate your account back to the market once this environment returns to reality. A consistent profit is more valuable to me than a big profit. If this market breaks the 370 high (which is also the upper boundary of the reversal zone), the next push can take this market to the 424 area which is a 1.0 extension projected from the 241 low. These extensions serve as good estimates of short term profit potential and are essential to evaluating if a trade is worth taking when compared to the risk. In summary, the purpose for developing a plan of action around levels that are relevant to market structure is to simplify your decision making process and filter out all the false starts and forced trades that lead to a large collection of small losses. The smaller the time frame you trade, the more important it is to have such a process. The inexperienced traders are focused on the amount of profit, but do not realize that same mentality is what leads to over trading. Current market conditions reward such a mentality, but what happens when the environment changes? It always changes. Even as these markets work their way higher in the long run, it does not mean it will be a smooth and bump free ride. Develop the habits that will facilitate base hits, not home runs. Comments and questions welcome. Nasdaq Interview: So for those that missed it, my interview appeared in the Nasdaq Twitter feed yesterday. You have to scroll back and look for it (around 11 AM EST). Https://twitter.com/nasdaq
BITFINEX:LTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
31
BTCUSD:Retrace To New High Or Initial Leg Of Broader Correction?BTCUSD update: Retrace to 15675 could be the initial leg to an oncoming correction, or it could be just another higher low that can push to 21K. Knowing which scenario will unfold is a matter of evaluating price action at 3 important levels which I will cover in this report. The bearish pennant formation that I wrote about in my previous report has evolved into a bearish flag formation. which has not been broken since the lower boundary (15675) has just been established. At the moment there is a bullish pin bar which can change dramatically since there is a lot of time before this candle closes, but if it completes showing this formation, that is a sign of reversal, especially if there is supporting structures on smaller time frames like a double bottom. IF the 15675 low is taken out instead, then more selling is likely to follow which can lead price back to the 14450 area (.382 of the current bullish structure). That is the projected support level I am interested in for a swing trade long. Also a retest of the 15675 low and failure to break lower will also result in a larger time frame double bottom and attractive area to get long because the first projected resistance is at the 18290 to 18938 area which is the .618 of the new bearish leg. That is almost a 3K move without even having to retest the 19891 high. That is a much better scenario than just buying any price randomly like so many have been doing recently. It is better because in the long run, waiting for clearer opportunities that offer defined risk and reward potential keep me out of trouble. As far as shorts, there are now 3 levels to evaluate for reversals that can offer attractive reward/risk on the short term (since this market is still moving a thousand points a day). The retest of the 18290 to 18938 followed by a failure would establish a lower high which can lead price back to the 14000s. A retest and failure of the 19981 high would establish a double top which can take prices back to at least the 15500 area. And the third level is the 20950 which is the upper boundary of the reversal zone (which is a proportion relative to the 15675 low). Wait, isn't 20950 a new high? Price can attempt to break out, and instead fake out slightly higher than the previous peak. This is the false breakout scenario which I like to call the double top variation. It attracts a lot of longs because of the breakout, but not enough to keep price going.If a reversal pattern like a pin bar appears within the reversal zone, I would interpret that as a sign that price is again likely to retest the 15500 area. IF price breaks beyond the reversal zone boundary, then I would stay out of its way. In summary, this market has reached an interesting technical area. 3 potential resistance areas that can lead to selling all while gyrating around a 2.618 projection target and exhibiting a bear flag formation. Putting these puzzle pieces together creates a context for further evaluation. That is where your trading plan must take over to guide the decision making which is the essence of short term trading. These scenarios are not absolute predictions, but instead possibilities that offer attractive reward/risk on both sides of the market. It all depends on how the market behaves at these measured levels, and your plan must help you interpret the price action. This is why being flexible and NOT opinionated is so important. Adjusting to the market based on what IT chooses to do is what "listening" is all about, and that is what leads to better trades whether they are profits or losses (small losses are good trades by the way). Comments and questions welcome. Nasdaq Twitter Interview Update: So I went to NASDAQ and when I got there, they changed their mind as far as going live and conducted the interview to be posted an hour or so after. It's still not out yet. As soon as it is out, I will update everyone. Sorry for the false advertising.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
16
ETHUSD: 1K Near But Watch For These Reversal Patterns.ETHUSD update: New all time highs made at 863 with no bearish activity in sight. At this rate, this market can reach 1k in a matter of a day or two as money rotates out of BTC again. That is not a very difficult forecast to present, anyone that has been watching these coins for a month can do that. In this report I am going to highlight the signs to watch for IF this market decides to retrace sooner than expected. There is actually one bearish sign that is invisible on these charts and that is the 5 wave structure that is now in place (originating from the previous consolidation at the 425 area). I am not including the wave counts on this chart to avoid clutter, BUT when 5 impulse waves are in place, what often follows is a corrective move. This doesn't mean it WILL happen, because 5th waves can extend dramatically as we have seen in these relentlessly strong markets, which is something to be aware of especially since price is now hesitating around the 814 target which is an extension measured from the weekly time frame (I wrote about this in a previous report). The key to timing a bearish reversal is waiting for a structure such as a lower high, a failed high or double top on a large time frame. This can take hours or days to unfold and often begins with a reversal candle such as a engulfing formation or pin bar. As long as these formations are not appearing, this market is more likely to continue higher. Since I never had intentions to short this market, the best I can do is wait for a relevant support level to measure risk from for a swing trade long. If you are an investor, then this short term analysis is of little value and must keep the two mindsets separate. The level I am waiting for is the 684 area which is the .382 of the current bullish structure which can offer an attractive long IF the market retests and validates. If the market happens to break lower (it can happen), the 573 to 500 zone is the next area to watch which is the .618 of the current bullish structure. These are the prices that offer attractive reward/risk for a short term swing trade. Since these markets are extremely reluctant to pull back (maybe after the holidays), it is now within reason to see price reach for the 1K level which is an important psychological resistance (just like 20K for BTC). There is a 1.0 extension at 972 and is projected from the 610 low. This offers an estimate of where price can experience resistance and possibly reverse especially since it is so close to the 1K level. In summary, when it comes to short term trading, it is less about fundamentals and more about evaluating changes in price action. Not knowing how to separate these mindsets seems to be a serious problem that will give the skilled traders the advantage over the lottery ticket holders who have no plan, no process or way to evaluate market information that facilitates effective decision making. Vertical markets attract these participants in droves and once these markets cool off (note: all markets do) there will be plenty of opportunity for short term traders that have a well defined decision making process (also known as a plan). A plan does not have to be complex, but it should be based on scenarios that are derived from fundamental or technical measures at least. What many do not realize is the market is momentarily rewarding gambling. Buy at any price and win big, and will continue until something comes out of nowhere and pulls the rug out. Be prepared, take some money off the table when you can, and appreciate what the market offers as a gift that can be taken away at any moment. Comments and questions welcome. Today at around 11:30 AM E.S.T. I will be appearing on NASDAQ with Jill Malandrino live. Check it out here: Https://twitter.com/Nasdaq
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
22
ETHUSD: The Quiet Before The 760+ High.ETHUSD update: Higher low established at the 610 level while price works its way into the next resistance zone. There are countless scenarios that can unfold from this point, but in this report I am going to evaluate two that we are more likely to see in light of the most recent price action. At the moment, price is hesitating just under the .618 resistance area relevant to the most recent minor bearish swing. In a more balanced market, this lower high would be more of a bearish sign, but in light of the current euphoria and clear 4 leg impulse wave, this price action will most likely lead to more of a consolidation followed by a new high. The level I am watching for a reversal to go long is the 648 to 631 support zone which is the .618 of the recent bullish swing. A bullish reversal here, OR a retest of the 610 low can offer attractive short term buying opportunities IF the risk is justified by the structure. IF price happens to correct further (remember ANYTHING is possible), the 568 level would be the next area to look for reversals because it is the 1.0 extension projected from the 712 high. This level would be the completion point of a zig zag formation where price is more likely to begin its next leg up to retest the 760 high. As far as highs go, IF price breaks above the 730 area, it is then more likely to retest the 760 high and beyond. 796 is the upper boundary of the reversal zone which means price can push to a new high and fail to follow through BUT since euphoria still rules these markets, it is likely to test the 815 level which is a 1.618 extension measured from a low on the weekly chart (explained in previous report). This is a good price to lock in SOME profit if the market offers the opportunity. These are not levels to go short. This is a short term swing trading strategy which has clearly defined rules, criteria and procedures that govern every aspect of the decision making process. The predetermined targets compensate you for the proportionate risk you had to take, and offer clear opportunities to lock in SOME profit. Short term trading and investing are two separate mindsets and each have their own subset of techniques, strengths and weaknesses. The market environment and your own unique financial situation further determine which mindset is a better choice. Your effort in any market should begin with one of these mindsets. Some markets are investing markets, while others are better for trading all while the environment is shifting between the two. Strongly trending markets like the coins at the moment are showing better results for longer term holders, but when they correct (eventually they will) investors will stagnate while traders capitalize on the movements. Learn to separate the mindsets. That is what trading around a core position is all about. In summary, market conditions are always changing. Right now everyone is expecting dramatic new highs because the market is rewarding such unrealistic views. Reality does not mean "sell off", it means that prices will spend more time in ranges rather than moving 30%+ per day or week. While BTC makes new all time highs, the alts take a breather and vice versa as money is flowing in and out of these coins. This market is likely to trade in a range between the 650 and 730 areas until the next attempt for the highs. Remember anyone can call a straight up market, learn to separate yourself from the impulse and hype surrounding these coins because when the weak hands get shaken out, that is when skill pays off the most. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
23
LTCUSD: The Retrace Before 500?LTCUSD update: The 350 all time high then followed by a pin bar leads to corrective price action and a potential support. In this report I am going to highlight the risk/reward and what to look for upon a retest of the high. I have always considered LTC more of a buy and hold type of market rather than a trading market because the price action was not as eventful as the BTC and ETH markets. Now that it has broken out to dramatic new highs, this market might offer some short term trading opportunities as well. On that note, the current price action is showing a minor correction. It went from 350 to 244 in a matter of hours (in the coin world, that is minor). 244 is the .382 of the bullish structure measured from the 73 low. In strong markets, this retrace level often holds and is a good place to look for reversal patterns. A bullish pin bar is currently in place on this time frame which is a sign of buying. Any retest of the 244 level followed by a double bottom or failed low would generate a buy signal based on my trading plan. By the time the appropriate candles are in place, you will most likely not get the 244 price, but high 240s to low 250s is not unreasonable. As far as risk goes, it is clearly defined by 244. That means if you are looking to take a short term swing trade, a stop can be placed somewhere slightly below this level, which will then shed light on the attractiveness of the trade. Based on the current structure, a retest of the 300 level is reasonable and when compared to the risk, (assuming an average price of 250) you are looking at around 5:1 which is more than acceptable. Keep in mind, attractive risk/reward is not a trigger to enter a trade, but instead a guide to help filter if a reversal pattern is worth entering or not. Why 300 and not 350? Why not higher? Reasonable risk and reward is based on market proportions, not feelings, hype or fundamentals. There is a .618 resistance zone at the 309 to 326 area, plus 300 may act as a psychological resistance. Remember, this is the short term trading mentality and NOT to be confused with investing (It seems most new investors and traders have no idea how to differentiate between the two mindsets). A retest of the 300 level is an area to take some short term profits IF that is the type of trade you have entered. In terms of the bigger picture, there is a 1.0 extension at the 507 level which is projected from the 244 low and is not that far fetched given the blind euphoria in these markets. This target would serve as a level to lock in some profits for longer term trades (long term in this market is a couple of months). There is no guarantee that this level will be reached and is based on the proportion of current price action. Some unexpected news can come out and completely change everything (long term TA cannot account for that). What if this market keeps going lower? A break of 244 can possibly lead price back to the 178 to 133 area which is the .618 support zone of the current bullish structure. Anything goes in these markets. IF price revisits this area, any broader reversals would serve as good buying signals, especially for longer term positions. In summary, buying pull backs in strong markets is an effective behavior when it comes to timing markets. When and how to enter exactly is more of a function of your trading plan, outlook and risk tolerance. If you are more long term, then less precision and more pain tolerance is in line with that mindset, while the short term trader needs to adhere to specific criteria like levels, reversal patterns and exiting at proportionate targets. What many new traders do not realize is that it is possible to employ multiple time horizon strategies simultaneously, it is just a matter of keeping them separate, almost like trading different accounts, or different instruments. Is it easy? No, but this is why having a well defined trading plan is so important. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:LTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
31
ETHUSD Goes Vertical And Where To Look For New LongsETHUSD update: New all time high made at 557.99 which is showing a pin bar on the 12 hour time frame at the time of this writing. There is no question, these markets are all going up in vertical lines, but where do you buy in? And how much longer will these markets soar? I have been cautious which the less experienced will not appreciate yet, but years in the futures and forex markets have taught me what reality is. I started my career in markets just like this back when average daily ranges of stocks were 30 to 50 points per day. Back then I had no clue, no point of reference, until reality set in. That market generosity was active for about two years. No one can forecast when reality will take hold of these markets, so you have to do your best to participate responsibly BUT just remember markets moving 30% in a day is extreme and not the new "normal". Learn the difference now before you have to learn the hard way. As far as this market, it is a tough short term hold because of it's wider swings. My previous trade produced some profit, but my upside was limited by moving my stop to break even at 420. It happens and unlike many, I do not complain about a profit. The focus now is where is the next opportunity. Trading responsibly means following best practices and not throwing caution to the wind which carries very seductive rewards right now. Forming bad habits now plants the seeds for big losses once reality catches up to these markets, because you will not know the difference and will jump in too big at the wrong time. Right now anyone can say "Buy!" and look like a genius, no skill required (which is another sign of euphoria). Market philosophy aside, where are the levels to buy into this market? I am most interested in two areas. The 476 area is the average highs of the previous consolidation which can act as a support. A retrace and reversal here on a smaller time frame (4 hour) would offer attractive reward/risk using the previous low area of 420 as a reference point for risk and the current high as a target (potential retest). If price continues lower than the 470s, the next area I will look to evaluate is the 453 to 426 zone which is the .618 of the current bullish swing and also the middle of the consolidation (which often acts as a solid support). A reversal off of these levels can offer reward/risk of more than 3:1, so IF the market retests, it is an area to pay closer attention to for bullish reversal formations. The 550 level happens to be the upper boundary of the reversal zone measured from the 390 low (based on market proportion). Which makes it the point of reference to measure potential short term reward from, and also the area to avoid for any new longs. The current pin bar in this area is a sign of weakness and implies a retrace is likely. In summary, in these rare and wild times, developing productive habits will allow you to stay in the game in the long run if you are trading on the shorter time horizons. It is possible to swing trade and invest at the same time by keeping your trades and investments separate, or by trading around a core position. Many have taken a gamble at high prices and it has paid off, and continues to , but this same type of gamble only works on occasion, and is extremely costly in a non euphoric environment which this market will return to, just like every market. One of the best practices you can learn is letting the market come to you and not being seduced by vertical lines. One way to accomplish this is simply to define and wait for support structures in strong markets. At least these markets are clear as far as strength goes, so it is just a matter of defining a risk that is in proportion to your account size and your tolerance level, and waiting for a level that offers a clear potential reward. TA provides the framework for these best practices even in vertical markets like these. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
28
ZECUSD a cup and handle pattern is vissible with 50% to upside. ZECUSD price action is in the last stage of creating a cup and handle pattern which will iveitably shoot out to the upside of not less than 50% in the near future. A retrace of 50% Fib can be expected as there are two long term resistance levels present. With a sustained push and momentum behind, target of $500 is attained easily at 128% fib. If resistance pen is rejected then look to buy at a discounted of 30%.
KRAKEN:ZECUSDLong
by TradeTheWave
BTCUSD Perspective And Levels: The Fast And The Flexible.BTCUSD update: This market moves fast. The anticipated retrace is in play as price has taken out the 6469 level signaling bullish momentum. 6950 to 7350 is the resistance zone to watch for the next bearish reversal. As written about in my previous report, the 6950 to 7350 area is the .618 of the recent bearish swing. Often, when a Wave B unfolds, it happens in 3 legs (typical corrective wave). This means from here, price can retrace or consolidate slightly before making another decisive move higher into that resistance zone. If the formation resembles a zig zag going into the 6950 area, I would be anticipating a bearish reversal and the beginning of Wave C. Waves C's are the emotional wave, they are often fast and ugly. IF the market decides to follow the scenario that I am anticipating here, then it may retest the high 4ks from this point. As the Wave B is unfolding, it is possible for price to pullback to the 5870 to 5632 which is the minor .618 of the current move from the 5400 low. IF price retests this area and reverses, it can offer a chance to get in for the completion of Wave B into the 6950 area. That is around a 1k point move that can happen fast (a day or two). Keep in mind the 6950 level is only a possibility and there is no guarantee that price WILL retest the area. It may fail sooner. So here is what all this means: A pullback to the 5870 area may offer a buying opportunity to capitalize on an attempt to push toward the 6950 zone. If price reverses above the 5870 area, it would be a higher low formation which will strengthen the argument even more. For day trading this trade is simple because you can measure risk from smaller time frames and exit for 2:1 or 3:1 without much drama IF you are paying close attention. This can even qualify as a one or two day swing trade, BUT again you must be nimble because any sign of failure and the position must be exited. I do not anticipate this market going back up to 8k in this next bullish retrace. This market is FAST and there are A LOT of IF's. Flexibility is more important than anything else. If you cannot be flexible and recognize changes as they are unfolding, then avoid this market altogether until this corrective formation plays out. Since I am flexible, and this market is so generous with momentum, I am open to take a swing trade long IF price retraces back to the 5870 area and forms a reversal structure within that zone. If I can justify 2:1 or 3:1 based on that structure at that time, I will take the trade, but like I just wrote, the target will either be 6950 or below if price shows signs of turning earlier. I am doing my best to describe trading scenarios, but I cannot force you to understand the concepts of flexibility and change. If the market offers the scenario I just described I will do my best to show the actions that I take by updating this report. At the moment there is a clear relationship with BCH. If price goes lower in this market, BCH goes up and vice versa. From what I understand, BCH solves the scaling problems that BTC is facing. Now that BCH has the world's attention, there will continue to be a tug of war between these two markets which offers more opportunity for day traders in my opinion. Meanwhile the rest of the alts are going nowhere fast. Watch BCH for an inverse relationship. An example is if BTC retests 6950 and fails, in theory, that should be a buying opportunity in BCH. In summary, there is a great deal of momentum pushing this market as well as BCH. This means this is no time for opinions, and where TA will help you the most. If you can't be flexible, then the most you can do is hope things go your way which is NOT a strategy that I recommend. I am watching for the higher low and reversal in the 5870s for a possible long, BUT if it gets there without fulfilling my criteria, I will avoid the trade altogether. And if you are confused by all this, trade forex, its slower. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
28
BTCUSD Perspective And Levels: How Low Can It Go?BTCUSD update: 7030 is touched as price attempts to retrace after the relentless rally. The big question: Is this the beginning of the big correction that everyone has been waiting for? Or just another shallow retrace? I will refer to Elliott Wave in order to get an idea of what is reasonable to expect. After the consolidation breakout which eventually got labeled as a Wave 4, the count for the 5th wave is pretty clear. The current retrace puts us in 4 of 5 which implies there is a chance that we get one more attempt at new highs before the BIG correction. We are now 10 days away from the fork, which makes for plenty of time for a retrace, a reversal and one more push toward 8k. As I wrote about in my previous report, there are extension overlaps in the 7900 to 8k area which makes it a convenient potential peak. So if I were shorting (to be clear I am not), I would not be too aggressive with target expectations on this leg. 6840 is the nearest support which happens to be the .382 of the recent bullish swing measured from the 5632 low. That level may offer a swing trade opportunity long if a smaller time frame reversal pattern can appear there. If that initial support breaks, the next support is the 6640 level, which is the .382 area of the bullish structure measured from the 5114 low ( previous Wave 4 low). IF price actually retests any one of these supports, and a bullish reversal formation shows up on a smaller time frame like the 1 hour, these would present attractive reward/risk opportunities. The key to this is the bullish reversal formation (like a double bottom) which provides a reference point to measure risk from. Without that, we are just bottom fishing. The mistake you want to avoid is jumping in too early. This is an easy mistake to make without any point of reference or too much focus on smaller time frames while attempting to swing trade. For me, the entry process begins with the level, and if price is not at a level that I have defined previously, then I have no reason to do anything else. Once it reaches a level then I move on to the next step which is to evaluate the chart patterns. What if price never makes it to a level and reverses sooner? That can happen, and that is not a trade that I will participate in. I am looking for opportunities that fit within my criteria for my swing trading plan. This keeps my decision making simple and helps to minimize any emotional tendencies like forcing trades because I am afraid to miss the next move up. How do we know this is not the big correction? I am anticipating that it is not because of the fork in 10 days. I believe many of the investors who missed out will see this as an opportunity to get on board the money train before it goes to 10k (which is what all the hype is telling them). That may be enough to get this market to retest the high which will complete Wave 5 of 5. After that, any correction like this and I will be expecting much lower levels. Anything can happen and I could be wrong, but that is what I am going by until the market proves otherwise, In summary, the current retrace is perfectly normal and still very shallow at the moment (relative to this market). This exact price action is why I do not buy at 7500 even though this market still has a chance to run to 8k. I am willing to take a long swing trade at the 6840 level or 6640 level if price action cooperates (and risk can be clearly defined) and hold it only for an attempt of retesting the high. Wave 4's are typically the easiest wave to forecast because 3 waves have to be in place which is the scenario at the moment. Since swing trading means a trade can go on for days, it is a tougher strategy to employ in this market because of how quickly things change. So for now I will wait to see if the market can reach my predefined levels and then evaluate the chart patterns from there. Be patient and be flexible. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
37