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Retrace

If BTC can't break 2951, then history will repeat.Red lines = everytime MACD (11,24,11) divergence has gone below -10 after being up > +10. As you can plainly see, it's pretty rare that the 1 day MACD is unreliable with these parameters. This recent fall has tried and failed multiple times to get past the 2951CNY mark. If we use 11/10 as a guide BTC would be going down 20% to around 2330---however I'm at least a little more optimistic that it will, at worst, bounce on the 2450 (or maybe simply 2500) fibonacci support line before climbing back up. Bear in mind (no pun intended) that the 1 week MACD is due for a drop though, meaning things could get perilous real fast.
BShort
by RyanMartin
Christmas and new year's eveThis ADX seems to be heading to a third wave that will be stronger than the other previous two. There may be some retracing in between with a short opportunity between now and christmas. I believe we will keep on an old support and won't go below 400. Then Santa's rally will come and keep up till 2016, then.... who knows, hopefully some sideways calm period, perfect for your january vacations. Once the trend on the ADX establishes, it rarely reverses in the middle. Would like to hear your comments.
OKCOIN:BTCUSDLong
by purpurato59
1
EURUSD SHORT LONG TIME FANTASTIC POTENTIAL STRONG LEVELS £$ Drawn S/R horizontal lines on W1 very strong levels coincide with diagional ray and key Fibonacci levels. Fib retrace shows 23.6% reversal occurring, Ichimoku suggesting a bounce off kumo - Channel Commodity Index reverse also respecting diagonal channel. First target 0% on Fib retrace, trailing stop from then on - Stop based on historical kijun-sen flat line, slightly above visual red stop level on short position target Good luck and happy trading!
Short
by XavierAlexander
2
GBPAUD: Support Turns To Resistance (VIDEO LINK: www.youtube.com )GBPAUD has been a pair that I’ve swung and missed at all week with 2 losing trades & a trade that came half way to targets before getting stopped out for breakeven. The majority of the week has been focused around this same structure level & now that price action is trading below it, I may have my chance at a short opportunity. As one of my clients showed me yesterday there was a chance to get involved in the initial break of support & retest yesterday, but with us being in a heavily bullish trend on the higher time frames, I wanted to make sure that this wasn’t just a simple retracement of the bigger move. Now don’t get me wrong, this particular setup can easily be a complex pullback as well, but I do have a much better potential risk to reward setting up here if I can play my cards right. The presence of a new 3-legged bearish formation (SP-ISH-OR-NSL) gives me a little more confidence but I still want to be cautious and look for the right reason for entry. If we do continue bearish, I’m not expecting a full reversal, but with the trend looking as if it’s running out of steam on the daily, we may be in for a deeper retracement. See many of you in the Live Trading Room! Do me a favor, if you actually read the write ups that go along with my charts please let me know by either giving the like button a hit or leaving a comment beneath. I always want to be as efficient as possible with my time so I want to get an idea of who’s reading and who’s not. Akil Stokes Chief Currency Analyst www.TradeEmpowered.com Akil@Tradeempowered.com /@AkilStokesRTM / Forex Weekend Review Videos: www.youtube.com
Short
by Akil_Stokes
47
Bat Pattern, Eur/Aud, 1 hrHere we have a completed Gartley pattern in the positive deviation area of the last 100 and 200 moves. According to my strategy , this market is likely to reverse down into the negative regression. As of right now, the market is retesting the high at point D and we should see a trade completion in the next couple of hours. Anyone that has been following my trades knows that last week I had a very bad week and I am making a minor change to my strategy for the week , until we recover from our losses, i was previously trading all harmonics to the 1.618 extension of the BC leg, but as of this week , i will only be trading harmonics to the .618 extension , just for a guaranteed close for profit. I have placed my trade actions as follows: Limit: point X Entry: point D Limit: the .618 extension of the BC leg Please like and comment if you agree or disagree respectively. And always follow me for more updates on market analysis and harmonic patterns , and recently a lot of wave theory's. And as always Good Trading Everyone!
Short
by Kylan_Laymance
Bulls try to climb the mountain, bears take the highway. In order for the bulls to prove their case, they must convincingly break above the uppermost resistance outlined on the chart. A stable move over $300 would be an indication that the bull trend would continue. Barring that, the prevailing trend is still down and it appears that it is going to play out as I suspected and indicated in my earlier ideas in which I made the comparison to the May-July reversal pattern which appears to be playing out here. I still don't see any coherent short-term patterns for some reason, so I'm waiting until either we can confirm the short-term upside or the long-term downside. The retracement I expected has already played out, so this is a major decision point for bitcoin, but given the rising volume an declining price over the last year, I see no reason why the trend shouldn't continue. I expect the price to rise sometime around the next new moon, at which point the bulls will be stopped and the bears will return.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by MoonTrader
4
Possible scenarios over the next day or twoRight now, the market is sandwiched between two vital levels of support and resistance. If it breaks down, that confirms a move to the $220s. If it breaks up, then we can expect to see a little bit of consolidation in this are followed by a steady move toward $400. Both scenarios are plausible at this point, but I wouldn't underestimate the bulls at this point because bull markets often surprise everyone. Many people are expecting a heavy retrace, but this may turn out to simply be the beginning of an even bigger bull market that will make the recent parabolic move look like peanuts. Overall, I'm still very bullish long-term. As I've mentioned before, I think we've established a long-term bottom and I don't think this is just a bullish retrace in the middle of a bear trend.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MoonTrader
4
EUR/USD Bullish BIAS On Double Bttom +RSI Massive Divegence I've formed a new bias on eur/usd - in my opinion it's likely eur/usd is going to retrace after all it has been plummeting since 2014-05-08 and we are also a at a pretty big resistance level (to see that you can squeeze this chart or take a look at the weekly), we now how a possible double bottom with bullish divergence, massive one. So now may be the time eur/usd could finally retrace. Possible targets or end of this retracement in my opinion will probably, but this could depend immensely on fundamentals, be at the structure and fib .382 (of the the big move) level confluence. Now this is a bias and I will look for opportunities and good setups, I won't just buy now, because of it all. To enter a long position on double bottom i would first look at volume if it there a lot of volume this double bottom trade could be very risky and take out stop loss orders quickly and it could also rally, but i think that it would be smarter to wait for volume to get small and maybe then buy a lite bit, but remember as treider our own opinion is the most important to us AND THIS ALL IS OPINION NOT ADVICE NOT A CRYSTAL BALL PREDICTION I'M SAYING WHAT I THINK IS LIKELY TO HAPPEN. p.s. + additional indecision candles would be a good sign BEWARE OF THE NEWS and economic calendar events. Written by : Wizard, whit --> NO CRYSTAL BALL. US Dollar going down --> This would also be a catalyst for natural gas you may want to check out my idea about it can be found in the Related Link's Is Below.
Long
by Wizard
2
Back to BearLink to my previous forecast, which was quite accurate but personally missed the ride due to a misplaced sell order (~$15,-) - . This one however I already acted upon. You'll probably find this chart extremely messy, and I won't deny that I'm an inexperienced trader - as such I'd welcome any form of feedback or your thoughts on the recent price movements! Introduction So I went long about 2 months ago after the bearish trend line was breached and the well-known EMA lines crossed (indicated in this chart), with the idea of not looking back until the price would be above $5000,-. However, today I went back to bear after seeing the BTC price slowly slipping out of the 600s over the course of last week and reviewing current sentiment, charts and forum posts. Why I took this trade - The daily 10/21 EMA crossed, which is often a sign of imminent bearish pressure - Weekly MACD is decreasing, which indicates there's no sign yet of a new bullish period forming for the upcoming months - Volume is very weak, although in Bitcoin this alone doesn't necessarily indicates much - The large amount of positive news recently had zero positive impact on the price, which make it seem that there's little support currently for prices above the 600s, or even in the 600s. Uncertainty - Daily Stoch RSI, MACD and other indicators already seem to be very low, which causes my main uncertainty for this trade I took Forecast - I currently have my bids set on a retrace to ~$475 and even a full retrace back to ~$340,- .
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Slot
3
Trading a short countermove before trend up again.A bit late, but wanted to share a small trade I am in. Using the D-trendline as resistance, price recently broke the steep upward trendline AND some daily S&R. I got in without confirm, and took a small retrace but with a big S/L. The next days candle was bad news, but not bad enough to get out of the trade, day after that we get a really nice confirmation candle. Price is heading down, probably towards the W trendline (might hit the horizontal at 91.141 but we're not counting on that. In retrospect: the 9/4 day candle with very strong retrace and high close, is another sign, price is planning to go upwards again after this countertrend trade we're making here. Update 22/04: Price is fighting with our S&R line, and I don't like the look of the previous closes. The trade looks less appealing now, we could opt out now or wait for a candle closing over our S&R line. Also notice, the longer we stay in the trade, the closer the supporting trendline comes and the less profitable the potential trade gets. This is a downside of countertrendtrading and makes following up on it a lot more important. Update 28/04: Still looking for the small break trough 92.419. Still playing the waiting game.
Short
by Evild0er
1