Retrace
US Recession? We will Sink at least 50% For a Recession.Between the 2008 great financial housing crisis, the end of the dotcom bubble in the year 2000, the 1970s stagflation recession, and the great depression of 1929 all have one thing in common. The market retraced at least 50% from it's peak. I personally believe the US economy is in conditions for a recession that will at least sink 50% or more if we were to compare to past indicators and technical conditions of a recession.
Just my opinion take it with a grain of salt. At the end of the day past is no indicator of the future. However history doesn't repeat itself it often rhymes. There's been a lot of rhymes I'm seeing. Much peace, love, health, and wealth!
BTCUSDT short continuesAfter a healthy retrace of 30% of a 5.162 Fibo beautiful leg down BTCUSDT shows a condition to reach 13k soon. Rout to meet Dec '17 ATH. This pullback seems accomplished and now we can see a good pivot point to adding on shorts in the crypto market expecting an 2nd leg down after that prior swing. Plus Fibonacci Retracement new target and Fisher Transform potential reversal sign on this H1 chart.
Wave V Complete for Bitcoin. Retrace to start of Wave IV. The elliott wave move proved to be correct. Now I expect a textbook retrace to at least the start of wave iv. Depending on weakness, we could see further downside. Likely some consolidation at this level to bleed out bullish energy. But if we see strenght upwards, theory will be invalidated.
GPN Weekly Options PlayDescription
This is essentially a "buy the dip" index play intending to ride a retracement as GPN tags and bounces off of a major support level @ 119.
Sort-of Hedge for heavy short account.
Using a call debit spread to bring the price down and reduce risk.
Call Debit Spread
Levels on Chart
SL < 119
PT : 135
*Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss
The Trade
BUY
12/17 125C
SELL
12/17 135C
R/R & Breakevens vary on fill.
Manage Risk
Only invest what you are willing to lose
Good long opportunity on GoldEvening everyone,
As you can can see based on current price action Gold managed to make a new low with today US session. This is due to the fact, that we were missing out one last downside leg in our Elliot Wave count - on the other hand the speech of J. Powell ahead of Congress was the catalyst for the sell-off reaction.
However,I think that we have high chances to go up here for an at least 50% correction in order to get our wave 2 IF this is really the beginning of a bearish Cycle. Since we have seen a lot of selling pressure in the last days, I am leaving the door open in case Gold is becoming bearish all of a sudden. On the other hand, I will analyze the inner structure of Gold once we get closer to 1822 in order to understand if Gold is still bullish or not, BUT in my opinion the tab of 1822 is out of question.
This is no financial advice, just my opinion.
RT
AUDUSD may be done with its first bearish impulse Hi trader,
please see above my current idea on AUDUSD for a good long swing opportunity.
My idea is based on my Elliot Wave knowledge and the fact that we are seeing here an ending diagonal, which would now lead to a 50-61.8% retrace for wave 2.
For further informations see below.
RT
ONE/USDT - 1H Binance - Long potential with DCA retrace markers$ONE looking strong. Previous breakout measured moves still available, targeting the $0.27-$0.32 range. BTC needs to continue behaving though.
Dotted white horizontal rays mark some potential DCA long opportunities, should we get a stronger retrace.
Leveraging carefully - If we head back down into the white channel ("flag"), things could get a little heavy.
Come on the ONE.
EURUSD might fall towards swing low if rejection occurs at 1.165This week might provide a slight correction from last's week aggressive down move in EURUSD. As the downmove happened last week, the monthly EMA was pierced and M candle closed below it. This indicates the path towards 1.1500 is well and truly open to be tested.
Here we currently look at the 4H chart for this pair. a possible head and shoulders developing on 1H TF might result in a slight retracement towards 1.16500 level and 4H EMA. Shall the retracement be completed, it is advisable to look for rejection of the 4H EMA which can be confirmed by the TRENDLINE break. Shall the rejection take place, we can expect the price to target the swing low on 4H charts. However it also depends on where the weekly pivot points are present.
Shall all the criteria meet, i will update the trade details here
BTCUSD contraction of volatilityFellow traders,
Contraction of volatility, BBands squeeze on 2day chart indicates that a large move is inevitable. Confirmation 6day chart on the right side of the screen shows bearish momentum. It looks like soon we’ll see BTC at 40k, or lower. The upcoming golden cross may be a fake out. All this will be invalidated if price action manages to stay where it is now, thus hanging on the 50SMA.
On short term time frames 8H, 6H, 4H BTC is in a down trend. 12H TF looks like it wants to jump down to its 200SMA around 40k.
It looks to me like the best course of action is to keep our powder dry and wait for a clear signal that will indicate direction of the coming move. One thing’s for sure though, something’s brewing up :))
Please, share your thoughts on this analysis.