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FINDING THE BEST ROI BETWEEN SIMILAR ASSETS 📚 With Alpha's PoP💬Introduction : Today we are comparing the Dow Jones, NASDAQ, and the S&P by their annual performance to show how our open source indicator "Alpha Performance of Period" (PoP) can be used and why the results are useful. We will also look at other markets later in the writeup to see how they compare and to get a sense of which markets provide the best risk-to-reward and ROI. The idea here is to compare highly correlated markets over time to see which of these markets preforms the best overall represented by a period chosen by the user. This will help tell us which of these indexes is the best/worst to trade/invest with on average. For this article we will assume "best" equates to "best for long positions", but the indicator could be used for other purposes such as best shorting opportunities (largest drawdown amounts). Comparing these indexes shows that the NASDAQ has historically outperformed, while the DOW underperformed, and the S&P has been somewhere in the middle since the tech bubble on a year-over-year basis. You can also see this on the chart as represented by the indicator's metrics contained within its label, but we will summarize it below: NOTE: The figures below are rounded up to the nearest .01%, see charts for exact %'s. Equity Indices Total Annual performance results: (main chart) (Jan. 2000 - present) SPX = +111.79% NDX = +156.10% DJI = +117.65% Now let's look at the quarterly and monthly performance: Equity Indices Total Quarterly performance results: (Jan. 2000 - present) SPX = +104.57% NDX = +160.75% DJI = +111.65% Equity Indices Total Monthly performance results: (Jan. 2000 - present) SPX = +91.22% NDX = +125.274% DJI = +101.68% Equities Summary: While the NASDAQ has had periods of underperformance (for example the dot com bubble burst), on each of the charts you can see that not only has the NASDAQ outperformed (and the Dow underperformed) over time, the NASDAQ has also generally outperformed during each different period measurement. We won't do the math for each period here as that's the main purpose of this indicator, but you can apply the indicator on your own chart and take a look at it yourself. The main takeaways for us are this: 1. You are better off trading and/or holding the NASDAQ when compared to the 3 main indexes. 2. You are better off trading the S&P than the DJI. 3. The performance of the NASDAQ during COVID isn't an anomaly, and it doesn't necessarily indicate a tech bubble, outperformance in a specific period and overtime is the norm with this index. Now that you see how this works on the indexes, let's showcase how it can work for other markets. ----- RARE EARTH METALS~ Rare Earth Metals Total Annual performance results: (Jan. 2000 - present) GOLD = 193.87% SILVER = 186.72% PALLADIUM = 361.27% Rare Earth Metals Total Quarterly performance results: (Jan. 2000 - present) GOLD = 201.80% SILVER = 197.60% PALLADIUM = 304.04% Rare Earth Metals Total Monthly performance results: (Jan. 2000 - present) GOLD = 206.59% SILVER = 209.60% PALLADIUM = 283.25% Rare Earth Metals Summary: As you can see, despite the general public's love of Gold, Palladium vastly outperforms it. Meanwhile, we can confirm Silver underperforms. Many people wouldn't suspect Palladium was superior, but we now know from the resulting data (Hooray!). ----- FOREX~ Main Forex USD pairs Total Annual performance results: (Jan. 2000 - present) EURUSD = 19.48% GBPUSD = -9.03% AUDUSD = 23.90% Main Forex USD pairs Total Quarterly performance results: (Jan. 2000 - present) EURUSD = 20.75% GBPUSD = -16.53% AUDUSD = 20.98% Main Forex USD pairs Total Monthly performance results: (Jan. 2000 - present) EURUSD = 19.57% GBPUSD = -16.70% AUDUSD = 21.93% Forex Summary: As you can see against a USD base-pair, GBP is the worst performing from the 2000's by all periods. One might assume the more popular EUR pair preformed better than for example AUD, but the reality is AUD takes the cake and preformed better than both EUR and USD by each period over time. ----- CRYPTOCURRENCY~ Main Crypto USD(T) pairs Total Annual performance results: (Jan. 2017 - present) BLX = 1351.18% ETHUSDT = 8967.62% LTCUSD = 5012.80% Main Crypto USD(T) pairs Total Quarterly performance results: (Jan. 2017 - present) BLX = 504.60% ETHUSDT = 1124.81% LTCUSD = 824.44% Main Crypto USD(T) pairs Total Monthly performance results: (Jan. 2017 - present) BLX = 357.63% ETHUSDT = 739.39% LTCUSD = 530.67% Crypto Summary: Crypto has the largest period losses, but it also has the largest period gains (by far). Of all the crypto pairs, ETH offers the best ROI. Interestingly, ETH offers the best ROI of all markets mentioned in this article as well (although it also has the biggest losses and highest risk associated with its uptrends). Some might find it odd that Litecoin outperforms Bitcoin (although like with ETH, the drawdown is notably more intense). ----- Conclusion: Use "Alpha Performance of Period" (PoP) to compare markets for what is best suited to your portfolio depending on your individual risk appetite. It is meant to be used on highly correlated markets, but as you can see you can also compare different sets of markets together to get a sense of which offers the best risk-to-reward, ROI, etc. This tool thus has many uses related to figuring out which markets you want to trade based on historical data and offers a simple way to quickly compare past performance. Hope you guys enjoy it! :D Resources: apple.news Hit that 👍 button to show support for the content! Help the community grow by giving us a follow 🐣
TVC:SPXEducation
by AlphaBotSystem
15
Long haul 2- 3 years 50% growth!Here is a new company being establish. lets take a look at the past price action and determine whether to get in this up trend. Short opportunity now or sign of bullish end of the year. Invest max 12% of your portfolio Above the Red line is Heavy selling area. Good buying below the green zone, but looking for a long haul guys. just keep an eye on this one weekly, invest $1000 each week or each 2 weeks to the next dividend befor.e the announcement to be surprise of the dividend. atleast 7% pa profit to be made when buying below the green line. good support level at $0.01c. This is a stock in Australia, helping the economy expanding to east asia and future economy of lowering debts for other country than Australia. please do your own research and see you down the end of the tunnel._-_-^^?
CLong
by NY8060
1
Yield Curve Inversion and S&P500 Returns & LossesIn the last 50 years, every time US treasury yield curve inverted a recession followed within 3 years. On average the S&P500 gained 19.1% following the inversion and peaked 13 months later. In other words, as far as investors are concerned, the recession began roughly one year later. However, once the market peaks, it drops 37.6% on average. Assuming you can time the market peak perfectly, there is a lot of money to be had. However, the downside risk is a lot greater than the upside opportunity. If you are a long-term “buy-and-hold” investor, with the yield curve having just inverted in August 2019, be prepared to ride a 3- to 5-year roller coaster of highs and lows. At the end, when you step off the ride, you can expect to have roughly the same equity value that you do today.
SP:SPX
by capriole_charles
BTC, a strong shorting opportunity looms Background Traders, investors, the public and the crypto world spent the beginning of 2018 fixated on the parabolic rise and equally sudden plummet from 20k to 6,000. By mid-2018, it was clear that the bull run was over and a massive descending triangle was forming with a base at around 6,000. The Minsky moment came at the end of 2018 with an introductory drop to 5,500 followed by a plummet which finally found support at 3,200. Since then, BTC has rocketed ahead, becoming one of the best asset classes of 2019, rising nearly 60% to 6,200 at the time of writing and crushing all other traditional asset classes. Resistance ahead The focus today is on 2018’s year long descending triangle and support base at 6,000 - 6,500 which provides todays opportunity. This support zone bounced sellers 5 times during 2018 and was the focus of crypto traders all over the world. Now with price reaching this important technical level, traders will undoubtedly be fixated on such an important technical level and may see this as an excuse to take profits, wait on the side lines or flip and open a short. Bearish divergence RSI levels have also been moving into overbought territory for the past month on the daily. Bear in mind that this by itself is a terrible reason to short given that BTC is so sentiment driven, however a bearish divergence (higher price with lower RSI) is forming on the daily, giving support to our thesis. Plan As we are shorting into a bullish trend, we need to be cautious, scaling into our position and re evaluating frequently. I recommend scaling into shorts around the 6,400 region, watching for double tops and signs of exhaustion on the 4hr. As price is still trending up, we will have tight stops, giving up quickly at around the 6,600 area. There are some special situations where we are just going to run away immediately, if one of Bitcoin’s infamous BGD wicks up rapidly and through our entry range, we are not going to enter any position. So, we will not leave any limit orders overnight and instead monitor our entries closely. If there is fundamental news, such as more clarity around Bakkt, US crypto regulations, or news, like a resolution to the Binance hack or Bitfinex situation then we will also have to stay on the side lines and potentially go long. Take profit levels are at the support levels of 5,600 and 5,200 with deeper profit levels at 4,200. Once again, we will be re evaluating frequently, looking for signs of weaknesses at each level before determining whether to continue.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by RDaneelSeldon
ADA Breakout Confirmed| 184% Return!Now is the time to buy this coin! Congratulations to my followers who already have done so following my last Cardano idea, and of course to my Twitter followers! Please see my last Cardano idea for reference. What Now? There are two ways to trade this coin. 1) Ichimoku crossover - Hold the coin until we see the Ichimoku MA's have a bearish crossover, when this happens we sell for a good profit. 2) Holding until all targets reached - If you like to ride the highs and low then please hold this coin and sell percentages of your position at each target. I will be updating step by step on what to do and when for both these strategies. Set your stop loss accordingly. Any comments or messages will be much appreciated. If you want me to do some technical analysis on any other coin, please let me know! BTC donation wallet address : 17xaafCmrBj3TL4rXNczuuM1MuvEGwX6XJ LTC donation wallet address : LNDYMjUEJqo1EuexEbTX6E157tZDBGqtgR I am not a financial adviser, please trade at your own risk.
Long
by XheklondoDedvukaj
EMC2 +50% RETURN IN A WEEK!We broke the Ichimoku cloud before however due to RSI being in overbought, we slipped back down into it, it looks like we may close above the cloud again today, but this time with a healthy RSI. Bullish Indicators - RSI has plenty of room to grow, therefore the chances of the breakout happening are increased. - The small retrace has caused a bull flag pattern with a target of 5521 Satoshi ( 50% return! ) - Bullish Ichimoku crossover indicating a breakout Bearish Indicators - 200 day moving average crossing over 100 day moving average indicating a downtrend - 200 day moving average is strong resistance that needs to be broken before we can proceed to our 5521 satoshi target Summary Now may be a good time to buy as the Ichimoku cloud does indicate a breakout is occurring however we should keep an eye out for the 200 day MA and how the price action reacts to getting close to it. If we break it, then we're on track. If we bounce off it, it would be a good time to sell when we hit it. As always, I will be updating you every step of the way! Any comments or messages will be much appreciated. If you want me to do some technical analysis on any other coin, please let me know! BTC donation wallet address : 17xaafCmrBj3TL4rXNczuuM1MuvEGwX6XJ LTC donation wallet address : LNDYMjUEJqo1EuexEbTX6E157tZDBGqtgR I am not a financial adviser, please trade at your own risk.
Long
by XheklondoDedvukaj
Stratis - Possible 350% up potential Hi, Even though the whole crypto market is in a semi-downtrend, I still believe we might see a turnaround soon. Different charts show me bullish patterns, which is indicating a market-wide reversal in trend. STRATIS broke out of the yellow trendline exactly 77 days ago and went up 110% in just 25 days. Its been correcting that move ever since. The price has now reached a point where it must either: A) break out above the green trendline and go for a 3th wave up or B) B) break below the yellow trendline and find support near the lows. Since bearish momentum is decreasing, I believe we might see a bull-run soon. Keep in mind that the price of Bitcoin will eventually be a leading factor. Adios.
SLong
by Alireza_ITS